Open Rants by DezDroppedIt

"Leave the Bears alone." -A Jets Fan.
Published at 6/8/2017
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Ya boy is coming at you hot with what I expect will be a very unpopular opinion: The Bears knocked it out the park when they picked Mitch Trubisky. It was a move that got torn to shreds by virtually everyone, from draft pundits to anonymous youtube commenters. I've even heard it referred to as the WORST DRAFT TRADE IN HISTORY. To put it simply: I'm tired of everyone hating on the Bears for the way they handled their first round selection of Mitch Trubisky. It was a good move, and it's one they desperately needed. First of all, I'd like to clarify that while I do personally really like Trubisky, I'm not really in the business of fortune telling. In other words, I'm not gonna tell you that he's the next big thing, because there are approximately 1,000,001 intangible factors that go into whether or not a QB successfully transitions to the NFL. Most of them are impossible to predict, and happen behind the scenes. We have no idea how hard he's going to work, or how good the coaching staff are at breaking down pro concepts for him or even how media coverage has been affecting his confidence. It's nigh impossible to say with certainty that a QB prospect will pan out or not. Therefore, without the benefit of hindsight that we'll have in a couple years (when all the "experts" inevitably start saying that they called it all along etc.) the only way we can objectively judge the drafting of a quarterback prospect is by what we know for sure. So what do we know about Mr. Mitchell and what do we know about his potential value to the Bears franchise? 

I don't think anyone can dispute that he's got all of the tools that you look for in a starting QB. If he busts, it won't be because he lacks talent. His ball velocity isn't terrific but overall, his arm is plenty strong enough to make all the throws and attack areas of the field that most QBs can't.   His accuracy, ball placement and anticipation are extremely impressive. That's the stuff you can't teach. And yeah, during that one year he started, he kicked everyone's ass. Based on what we know, he's got a good a chance as anyone at succeeding at the next level. So what's the downside? Why does everyone seem to think that he's a sure-fire flop? Here's a basic overview of the dissenting arguments I've encountered on the internet.

"Look at his dumb face. He just looks like a bust"

"One year Mark Sanchez calling it now"

"He's got bust written all over him. He's a system QB."

"Next Blaine Gabbert."

Do we hate Trubisky because he's bad? Or do we hate him because he reminds us of other bad quarterbacks? The awkward, bland, generic white guy...he just fits so perfectly into the schema of what we anticipate a bust to look like. That isn't to say that there aren't legitimate criticisms to be made of his game obviously...the one year starter thing and his ball velocity do concern me a bit. But I just felt like the nearly unanimous rejection of Trubisky could be attributed more to feeling than fact. And people once started bashing the move, everyone else just piled onto the bandwagon, ignoring the fact that, as an individual, he had a better season than any other top QB in this draft class. Yeah, I don't care about the national title. If being a "winner" was as important as everyone says, then Jake Coker might still be employed by an NFL team instead of working as a plumber. And to reiterate, I can't predict the future. Maybe he'll bust. Maybe Deshaun Watson will win the MVP award as a rookie. I really don't know. I'm just saying there's there's not nearly enough objective information to warrant the nearly universal conclusion that Trubisky is going to fail and that the Bears were idiots to pick him.

Which brings me to part two:appraising the selection itself. Your personal opinions of Trubisky aside, did Chicago clearly rates him as the future face of the franchise. So with that in mind, did Chicago give up too much to get him? Surely for a struggling franchise, a more sure fire star like Jamal Adams or Solomon Thomas  would've been a much more prudent choice. It's a good point actually...I find the criticisms of the Bears' selection are often more valid and reasonable than the ones I encounter dismissing Trubisky as an individual prospect. However I still think the Bears made the right call.

 Let's first establish that there can be no such thing as reaching for a franchise quarterback. If a team believes that any quarterback is truly capable of playing at a high level in this league, then there's no draft position too high for price too large to sacrifice to obtain him. I don't have to spend too much time on this; y'all know how important QBs are. If you've got one, you can start building a Super Bowl contender...without one? You're screwed. You can build that team up all you want, odds are you'll never win championships without, at the very least, an above average to good signal caller behind center. The rule of thumb is: if you like a guy, go get him, no matter what the cost. With that in mind, did the Bears really give up all that much? They gave up a 2nd round pick and a 3rd, plus the 1st they spent actually selecting Trubisky. Let's compare that to what the Texans did. My feelings on how poorly Rick Smith has handled the QB position could probably fill up it's own Rant but to breifly surmise my feelings: they gave up WAY more (two first and 40 million dollars!!!) than the Bears did in pursuit of a why oh why have the Texans been spared from the Football World's collective wrath, but the Bears get ripped a new one? I don't get it. 

I don't think we can definitively say that the Bears had no reason to trade up one spot. It didn't make a lot of sense on the surface...but like I said, we're dealing only going to deal with objective, unbiased information when judging this move. We have no clue who else was trying to nab that pick...I happen to know of a team in New York who might be interested in acquiring a talented young signal caller sometime this century. I unfortunately support them, and can consequently sympathize with the Bears possibly overreacting to make sure they get their guy. Its easy for fans who are accustomed to stability at the position to take it for granted, but trust me, I would literally set myself on fire if it meant the Jets would have a competent signal caller under center tomorrow. I'm not even kidding right now. I'd do it. By comparison, Ryan Pace just traded away a 2nd and a 3rd to assure his plan was a success. Its no big deal, and if Trubisky works out, then no one else will care either. 

Even giving Mike Glennon a big contract makes more sense than you might think. My biggest problem with Ryan Pace in general is that he seems to go all in with free agents every year. Dude needs to relax and build his team up slowly through the draft. However, in this case, Glennon actually helps the aforementioned cause of helping this team for the future. A lot of people are saying that Trubisky will need some time to sit, learn, and develop. I'm not personally sure how accurate that is but it's safe to say that giving him a bit of extra time certainly wouldn't hurt. Young quarterbacks are often rushed into playing way, way too soon. SO many promising careers get derailed by unrealistic expectations and a lack of patience. Glennon gives Chicago that buffer to bring Money Mitch along slowly. He's also a high upside buffer...he's young. Stable QBs are valuable enough to keep guys like Brian Hoyer and Josh McCown employed for years and years..despite them being known commodities who have literally zero chance of ever becoming acceptable long term solutions at the position. Glennon is better than that, because his youth means it's extremely possible his best years are ahead of him. I could easily see a scenario where both Glennon and Trubisky develop nicely, meaning that Pace can flip Glennon for a high draft pick whilst keeping Trubisky as his golden boy. They can also cut Glennon after the season for no cap penalty. Seems to make a lot of sense to me. 

So I didn't put too much thought into this rant...just wanted to quickly get my thoughts out. Hope it sufficiently outlined why I think the Bears made a good call, and why even if it ends up failing, it was a gamble worth taking in pursuit of a franchise altering player. In other words, l'll stand by this analysis even if Trubisky busts. Keep the faith Bears fans...there's hope for you yet.

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