2014 NFL Draft Mailbag
I received many e-mails and tweets about my 2014 NFL Mock Draft and the upcoming NFL Draft in general. To share the answers to the questions publicly, I decided to start up a mailbag column. Pass along your NFL draft questions and comments. I'll put together a mailbag periodically that answers questions/comments sent via email draftcampbell@gmail.com or on Twitter @draftcampbell.
6/2/13
From twitter Ryan Wittman, @ryanwittman0
"Fales in Rd 2? Also, If the Titans are drafting 10th again, I'd assume they'd look QB in Rd. 1."
I'm not sold on David Fales as a first-round pick yet. I need to see more of him as a senior before I move him up into Round 1. Fales completed 72.5 percent of his passes for 4,193 yards with 33 touchdowns and nine interceptions last year. However those numbers don't tell the whole story as the first-year starter was dominating a rather weak level of competition. Fales' worst game of the season came against Stanford, his best opponent, when he completed 24-of-35 passes for 217 yards with a touchdown and interception.
Fales looks like he has a quality arm and some accuracy. His completion percentage is inflated by a short, quick-passing offense. While he isn't a dual-threat quarterback, he has some mobility to move in the pocket. Fales needs to improve his field vision as he has a tendency to stare down his primary option. Fales also has to make improvements in his foot work. He could be a little shorter than his listed measurements (6-3, 220) as well.
Let's see how the senior does this year when he rematches against Stanford. That looks the only tough defense he'll play during the regular season. Many were projecting Logan Thomas and Tyler Bray as first-rounders at this time last year, and look how that turned out. Thomas had a bad season and returned to Virginia Tech, while Bray went undrafted. Fales and Alabama quarterback A.J. McCarron still have more to prove before I move them into the first round.
From twitter Craig Davis, @UK_Raiders
"A lot can happen between now and 2014. Who is a prospect off the radar who could end up a top 5 or 10 pick?"
That's a great question. This time of the year there are guys who look like potential first-rounders but end up being undrafted. Nobody knew about BYU defensive end Ezekiel Ansah at this point last year, and he ended up being a top-five pick.
Right now, my favorite under-the-radar prospect is Tennessee left tackle Antonio Richardson. He could easily turn into a first-round pick with a strong 2013 season. The Volunteers were able to move Dallas Thomas inside to guard last year because of Richardson. He did an impressive job of protecting Tyler Bray's blind side.
If Richardson plays well against South Carolina's Jadeveon Clowney, he could give his stock a real boost. Richardson held his own against the phenom in 2012. I bet Tennessee will let Richardson take on Clowney in some one-on-ones. If Richardson does well on those plays, it could be huge for his draft stock. The 6-foot-6, 332-pounder has good size for a left tackle with surprising quickness and agility. Not a lot of people project him as a first-rounder right now, but I think that could easily change later this fall.
A few other under-the-radar candidates to keep an eye on include Baylor running back Lache Seastrunk, South Florida defensive end Aaron Lynch, UCLA guard/tackle Xavier Su'a-Filo, UCLA quarterback Brett Hundley and Florida outside linebacker Ron Powell.
From Connor Leenders, Auckland, New Zealand
"What sort of impact do you think the post-draft signings of OT Max Starks and DE Dwight Freeney will have for the Chargers? Also is there any chance that D.J Fluker could play LT down the road?"
I think Starks will have the biggest impact for the Chargers. In my opinion, he was undervalued by Pittsburgh throughout his career. San Diego's offensive line was horrific last year and I think Starks will have a real impact for Philip Rivers and the Chargers receivers. Starks is an upgrade at left tackle and could be a nice 1-year stop-gap while the team finds a permanent left tackle. It would be interesting if San Diego went back to Alabama to land Cyrus Kouandjio to be protect the blind side and reunite him with Fluker.
I think Fluker could turn into a good NFL right tackle or guard, but I don't see him becoming a left tackle. I saw Fluker beaten for a lot of sacks last year and it seemed like many analysts glossed over his struggles in pass protection. He was tremendous as a run-blocker however. Fluker shows glimpses, like when he handled LSU's Barkevious Mingo, but is inconsistent. I think after Fluker gets some good coaching, he could be a solid right tackle. If the speed-rusher problems continue, Fluker could be effective inside at guard.
I think Freeney is slowing down and I don't think he's going to contribute much. I would predict that Freeney will have five or six sacks, but won't be anything close to the pass-rusher he used to be. John Abraham has more left in the tank in my opinion, but his price was higher than Freeney's.
From Phil Jonek, Elmhurst, Illinois
"The pick of Kyle Long has gotten ripped in Chicago, but considering Gabe Carimi is going to get cut does that make the pick better? Also what could the Bears get for Carimi?"
I think the Bears reached for Long. They would have been better off taking linebacker Alec Ogletree in the first round and guard Larry Warford in the second round. Clearly, Phil Emery likes players with athletic potential and Long has flashed the skill set to turn into a good pro. I will say that I'm surprised he's not playing left guard considering that is the guard who needs to be more athletic for pulling, but Chicago could be taking its time with Long and plan to eventually move him to left guard in a year or two.
It does sound like Carimi could be on his way out of town. That does make the Long pick more understandable because there is one less option at guard/tackle. I'm not confident the Bears could get a quality pick for Carimi. He hasn't impressed thus far in his NFL career. I think Chicago's best shot would be to bring Carimi to training camp and see if a team becomes desperate for help because of injuries on the offensive line. The Bears could maybe luck out and land a mid-round pick if a team liked Carimi coming out of Wisconsin.
From Ryan Michel, Savannah, Georgia
"I see you have the Falcons picking 32. God I hope you're right, but do you think have enough talent on defense to win the Super Bowl?"
That's definitely the big question. I may currently have the Falcons at No. 32, but that isn't my final preseason prediction. I'll adjust my projections after getting a look at teams in training camp. Still, Atlanta is already on the short list.
Offensively, I think the Falcons are Super Bowl ready assuming their core players stay healthy. Steven Jackson could give the team's ground game a lift and add a missing dimension to the offense. I wonder if Atlanta had had Jackson last year, would it have been able to grind out a win over San Francisco in the NFC Championship Game.
Defensively, I think Osi Umenyiora will replace John Abraham nicely. I think the Falcons should try and get Abraham back, but it doesn't look like they have the money to convince him to return. Still, I think they could get some pass rush out of Jonathan Massaquoi, Malliciah Goodman and Stansly Maponga. All three of those players had big seasons as pass-rushers in college. If Atlanta keep those players' roles simple and just use them to rush the quarterback, it could expedite their development.
In the secondary, I think first-round corner Desmond Trufant is ready to play as a rookie. Fortunately, the Falcons have a great safety tandem who can give him some help, but I like Trufant as a man corner. Mike Nolan is a good defensive coordinator who can disguise the rookie's weaknesses until he works them out.
I think it is all about the Falcons' defense getting hot heading into the postseason. The Colts had a bad defense in 2006, but they got hot in January, which was enough for them to win the Super Bowl with a great offense. Atlanta could follow that pattern and perhaps the organization's young defensive talents will be emerging as impact players in January.
From twitter Eric Westlund, @EricWestlund
"Still going Johnny (Manziel) that high, huh? The scouting community is starting to go the other way."
Well I'm not sure which scouts you're referring to, but the area scouts who I talk to haven't seriously started the 2014 process. They are mostly on vacation until August.
There are some directors of college scouting in the NFL who have already started watching 2014 players, but the area scouts who give players their round grade haven't started that process yet. Plus Manziel is an underclassman. Most area scouts just focus on the seniors and then go back and review the underclassmen once they've declared for the draft. It is way too early to make an estimation on how the scouting community feels about any 2014 prospect.
Once again send questions/comments via email draftcampbell@gmail.com or on Twitter @draftcampbell.
2014 NFL Draft Mailbag Archive:
2014 NFL Draft Mailbag - June 2
2014 NFL Draft Mailbag - May 16
2013 Fantasy Football Rankings - June 19
2014 NFL Mock Draft - June 18
Charlie's 2014 NFL Mock Draft - June 17
2013 NBA Mock Draft - May 22
NFL Picks - Feb. 3
6/2/13
From twitter Ryan Wittman, @ryanwittman0
"Fales in Rd 2? Also, If the Titans are drafting 10th again, I'd assume they'd look QB in Rd. 1."
I'm not sold on David Fales as a first-round pick yet. I need to see more of him as a senior before I move him up into Round 1. Fales completed 72.5 percent of his passes for 4,193 yards with 33 touchdowns and nine interceptions last year. However those numbers don't tell the whole story as the first-year starter was dominating a rather weak level of competition. Fales' worst game of the season came against Stanford, his best opponent, when he completed 24-of-35 passes for 217 yards with a touchdown and interception.
Fales looks like he has a quality arm and some accuracy. His completion percentage is inflated by a short, quick-passing offense. While he isn't a dual-threat quarterback, he has some mobility to move in the pocket. Fales needs to improve his field vision as he has a tendency to stare down his primary option. Fales also has to make improvements in his foot work. He could be a little shorter than his listed measurements (6-3, 220) as well.
Let's see how the senior does this year when he rematches against Stanford. That looks the only tough defense he'll play during the regular season. Many were projecting Logan Thomas and Tyler Bray as first-rounders at this time last year, and look how that turned out. Thomas had a bad season and returned to Virginia Tech, while Bray went undrafted. Fales and Alabama quarterback A.J. McCarron still have more to prove before I move them into the first round.
From twitter Craig Davis, @UK_Raiders
"A lot can happen between now and 2014. Who is a prospect off the radar who could end up a top 5 or 10 pick?"
That's a great question. This time of the year there are guys who look like potential first-rounders but end up being undrafted. Nobody knew about BYU defensive end Ezekiel Ansah at this point last year, and he ended up being a top-five pick.
Right now, my favorite under-the-radar prospect is Tennessee left tackle Antonio Richardson. He could easily turn into a first-round pick with a strong 2013 season. The Volunteers were able to move Dallas Thomas inside to guard last year because of Richardson. He did an impressive job of protecting Tyler Bray's blind side.
If Richardson plays well against South Carolina's Jadeveon Clowney, he could give his stock a real boost. Richardson held his own against the phenom in 2012. I bet Tennessee will let Richardson take on Clowney in some one-on-ones. If Richardson does well on those plays, it could be huge for his draft stock. The 6-foot-6, 332-pounder has good size for a left tackle with surprising quickness and agility. Not a lot of people project him as a first-rounder right now, but I think that could easily change later this fall.
A few other under-the-radar candidates to keep an eye on include Baylor running back Lache Seastrunk, South Florida defensive end Aaron Lynch, UCLA guard/tackle Xavier Su'a-Filo, UCLA quarterback Brett Hundley and Florida outside linebacker Ron Powell.
From Connor Leenders, Auckland, New Zealand
"What sort of impact do you think the post-draft signings of OT Max Starks and DE Dwight Freeney will have for the Chargers? Also is there any chance that D.J Fluker could play LT down the road?"
I think Starks will have the biggest impact for the Chargers. In my opinion, he was undervalued by Pittsburgh throughout his career. San Diego's offensive line was horrific last year and I think Starks will have a real impact for Philip Rivers and the Chargers receivers. Starks is an upgrade at left tackle and could be a nice 1-year stop-gap while the team finds a permanent left tackle. It would be interesting if San Diego went back to Alabama to land Cyrus Kouandjio to be protect the blind side and reunite him with Fluker.
I think Fluker could turn into a good NFL right tackle or guard, but I don't see him becoming a left tackle. I saw Fluker beaten for a lot of sacks last year and it seemed like many analysts glossed over his struggles in pass protection. He was tremendous as a run-blocker however. Fluker shows glimpses, like when he handled LSU's Barkevious Mingo, but is inconsistent. I think after Fluker gets some good coaching, he could be a solid right tackle. If the speed-rusher problems continue, Fluker could be effective inside at guard.
I think Freeney is slowing down and I don't think he's going to contribute much. I would predict that Freeney will have five or six sacks, but won't be anything close to the pass-rusher he used to be. John Abraham has more left in the tank in my opinion, but his price was higher than Freeney's.
From Phil Jonek, Elmhurst, Illinois
"The pick of Kyle Long has gotten ripped in Chicago, but considering Gabe Carimi is going to get cut does that make the pick better? Also what could the Bears get for Carimi?"
I think the Bears reached for Long. They would have been better off taking linebacker Alec Ogletree in the first round and guard Larry Warford in the second round. Clearly, Phil Emery likes players with athletic potential and Long has flashed the skill set to turn into a good pro. I will say that I'm surprised he's not playing left guard considering that is the guard who needs to be more athletic for pulling, but Chicago could be taking its time with Long and plan to eventually move him to left guard in a year or two.
It does sound like Carimi could be on his way out of town. That does make the Long pick more understandable because there is one less option at guard/tackle. I'm not confident the Bears could get a quality pick for Carimi. He hasn't impressed thus far in his NFL career. I think Chicago's best shot would be to bring Carimi to training camp and see if a team becomes desperate for help because of injuries on the offensive line. The Bears could maybe luck out and land a mid-round pick if a team liked Carimi coming out of Wisconsin.
From Ryan Michel, Savannah, Georgia
"I see you have the Falcons picking 32. God I hope you're right, but do you think have enough talent on defense to win the Super Bowl?"
That's definitely the big question. I may currently have the Falcons at No. 32, but that isn't my final preseason prediction. I'll adjust my projections after getting a look at teams in training camp. Still, Atlanta is already on the short list.
Offensively, I think the Falcons are Super Bowl ready assuming their core players stay healthy. Steven Jackson could give the team's ground game a lift and add a missing dimension to the offense. I wonder if Atlanta had had Jackson last year, would it have been able to grind out a win over San Francisco in the NFC Championship Game.
Defensively, I think Osi Umenyiora will replace John Abraham nicely. I think the Falcons should try and get Abraham back, but it doesn't look like they have the money to convince him to return. Still, I think they could get some pass rush out of Jonathan Massaquoi, Malliciah Goodman and Stansly Maponga. All three of those players had big seasons as pass-rushers in college. If Atlanta keep those players' roles simple and just use them to rush the quarterback, it could expedite their development.
In the secondary, I think first-round corner Desmond Trufant is ready to play as a rookie. Fortunately, the Falcons have a great safety tandem who can give him some help, but I like Trufant as a man corner. Mike Nolan is a good defensive coordinator who can disguise the rookie's weaknesses until he works them out.
I think it is all about the Falcons' defense getting hot heading into the postseason. The Colts had a bad defense in 2006, but they got hot in January, which was enough for them to win the Super Bowl with a great offense. Atlanta could follow that pattern and perhaps the organization's young defensive talents will be emerging as impact players in January.
From twitter Eric Westlund, @EricWestlund
"Still going Johnny (Manziel) that high, huh? The scouting community is starting to go the other way."
Well I'm not sure which scouts you're referring to, but the area scouts who I talk to haven't seriously started the 2014 process. They are mostly on vacation until August.
There are some directors of college scouting in the NFL who have already started watching 2014 players, but the area scouts who give players their round grade haven't started that process yet. Plus Manziel is an underclassman. Most area scouts just focus on the seniors and then go back and review the underclassmen once they've declared for the draft. It is way too early to make an estimation on how the scouting community feels about any 2014 prospect.
Once again send questions/comments via email draftcampbell@gmail.com or on Twitter @draftcampbell.
2014 NFL Draft Mailbag Archive:
2014 NFL Draft Mailbag - June 2
2014 NFL Draft Mailbag - May 16
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Vince
10-26-2012
02:03 pm
xxx.xxx.xxx3.99
(total posts: 4)
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Hey Charlie, Milliner plays some zone too. Unless there is a true #1 receiver on the opposing team (a la Alshon Jeffry and Rueben Randle last year and Cobi Hamilton and Justin Hunter this year), the Tide run mostly pattern-read zone on anything that is first/second and six or more. On almost all third downs and about half second and shorts they run straight man, but otherwise they're mostly a zone team.
Still, Dee Milliner is definitely the best corner in this draft.
nycsportzfan
09-06-2012
07:18 pm
xxx.xxx.xxx9.10
(total posts: 1)
12
15
Hey Walt, What do u think of this crop of Dlineman? I'm thinking of sleepers in the rd 3-5rd area.. Craig Roh DE michigan, Cameron Meredith DE Nebraska, and Akeem Spence DT Illinois?
Matt
08-16-2012
08:37 am
xxx.xxx.xxx0.32
(total posts: 1)
80
258
Uh oh, Walt might fire you after that Penn State blurb. In his eyes, Paterno is a saint and PSU was robbed.
Joe Schmo
08-07-2012
04:02 pm
xxx.xxx.xxx.182
(total posts: 1)
16
11
@Steve, just because a quarterback has speed, that does not translate into success as a running back. But maybe on day 3 he is worth a pick as a project.
Wharthog
08-07-2012
01:43 pm
xxx.xxx.xxx48.2
(total posts: 1)
15
10
@Vince
I agree w/your list but Eric Winston Played in Miami, not USC. I guess that strengthens your argument since Winston was on your "pro" USC list. Also, add to your "con" list Rey Maualuga (drug dealing issue)and Taylor Mays (effort issues)who are both currently in Cincy...and maybe Keith Rivers too.
Steve
08-07-2012
01:36 pm
xxx.xxx.xxx17.5
(total posts: 1)
11
185
well if denard goes on day three, i hope my lions pick him up then, and put him at RB
Vince
07-27-2012
02:46 am
xxx.xxx.xxx3.99
(total posts: 4)
18
36
Also in the melting pot of recent offensive USC busts with Sanchez and Leinart would be guys like Dwayne Jarrett, Reggie Bush, Deuce Lutui, Charles Brown, Sam Baker, and LenDale White. Steve Smith was average, as has been Chilo Rachal.
Overall it seems to affect the O-Line less, with guys like Eric Winston, Ryan Kalil, and Tyron Smith. Other than the O-Line, though, the only guy from USC on offense who actually looks legit is Fred Davis.
Wesley C
07-26-2012
08:10 pm
xxx.xxx.xxx.175
(total posts: 1)
30
12
The "bust legacy" among past USC QBs shouldn't be that big of an issue. We all know Kyle Boller was a bust from Cal in the 2003 but his immediate successor at Cal, Aaron Rodgers seems to be successful in the NFL.
Matt @ Mac
07-26-2012
01:05 pm
xxx.xxx.xxx.219
(total posts: 2)
20
10
If young people voted in the same numbers as those over 40 Paul Ryan would not have a job. Also who roots 4 another team just because theirs suck? I guess Dolphin fans.....
RD
07-17-2012
12:51 pm
xxx.xxx.xxx.172
(total posts: 1)
26
12
@TS
#1 Cooley had 849 yards in 2010 while playing all 16 games; and thats with McNabb throwing more ints than tds that year; not to mention having a YPC avg of over 10 consistently. He has played all 16 games in 6 out of 8 seasons, and his play steadily gets better. He has never had a good qb; Campbell was only avg. Davis isn't a top-10 player; he is still very raw. He has had one year of good production and one of above avg. (09). And top- 10 talent is V. Davis, Gronk, Graham, Pettigrew, Gates, Gonzo, Winslow, Gresham, Witten, both Millers, Cooley, Daniels, and Celek. F. Davis is currently a 2nd-tier TE. #2 Helu was injured in his only season with 5 starts and about 150 carries; that inspires no confidence. His rush avg. was 4.2; exactly in the middle of the NFL. Almost 1/2 his receiving yards were on one day. Hightower is an ok 3rd down back, but not that great. This group of RBs are in the lower 1/2 of the NFL. And your absolutely right about Shanahan, he turns crappy RB's into 1000 yard rushers (Orlandis Gary, Quentin Griffin, Reuben Droughns, Tatum Bell). However, after Portis was traded, no one lasts long because they sucked. Look it up, I think only Droughns had 2 good seasons, and one was in CLE. Most of those good seasons were because Shanahan does a great job with the line. Also, in his 2 years in WAS, Shanahan has yet to produce a 1,000 yard rusher, which he used to do like nothing; and hasn't had one in his last 4 seasons. Helu will be another one of those backs; though he may have a better career than Gary and Griffin. I have nothing but respect for him as a HC, but it looks as though he is nearing the end; probably why he went all out with McNabb in 2010. #3 Cofield has had 1 good year and a couple of decent years; though I was surprised he didn't do more when playing with that dangerous of a DL. He will be another Aubrayo Franklin; good for like 2 years and then done. Riley may have had a decent year, but please don't compare him to Fletch; that's insulting. Fletch is the #1 underrated defensive players in the game today. He's been spectacular for years, never missed a game and had 12 straight 100+ tackle years. I like Riley and followed him in LSU; but currently, he is maybe avg.; nothing more. Playing next to Fletch will help develop him; but w/o him, Riley will struggle. Wilson's better, but he is only an good #2 or #3 CB. Like I said the D is garbage. 3 good players, 2 passable ones and a one year wonder does not make a good D, especially when the rest shouldn't be starting in the NFL. #4 Smith is, and always has been, a top-10 WR. In the 4 years after Delhomme started falling off in '06, Smith has put up almost 4,000 yards and 20 TD's; with bums like Matt Moore and Jimmy Clausen throwing to him. Garcon isn't better than Lafell, it just looked like he was because Manning was throwing to him and he had decoys in Wayne and Clark. Cooley is better than Olsen, Davis isn't; though he can be if he develops. Shanahan is great with the line; but only passable linemen? Come on; he had his fair share of good, even some great, linemen. Nalen is one of the best centers to play the game; and how about Schlereth, Zimmerman, Lepsis, or Studdard? They had talent, whether Shanahan was there. His current crop of O-linemen don't even compare to them. Only Williams and Brown should be starting at all. #5 Your ignorance and bias notwithstanding; WAS is a lost cause for at least 3 years. No #1 caliber players (alone or by committee) anywhere but LB and now QB. They have no 1st Rounder in 2 years; and currently don't have the skill to compete. STL will be taking WAS's next 2 1st rounders, so it will be harder to build around Griffin.
Mac
07-10-2012
12:44 pm
xxx.xxx.xxx5.71
(total posts: 1)
23
21
Charlie kicking it with Paul Ryan! Nice! If only the country would listen to him our economy and debt wouldn't be in the crapper. I'm a Dolphins fan, but I'll root for the Pack just cause Ryan likes them. Besides Miami is going to stink this year. Go Pack Go!
Chris
07-08-2012
07:23 pm
xxx.xxx.xxx.204
(total posts: 1)
133
118
Comeback player of the year could easily be Sam Bradford, he has had the same consistency issues with this being his third system in three years, and he had an ankle injury plaguing him last season. Combine the full off season with some big threat wide receivers and he could have a great season when last year was dreadful. And the chiefs need Tyler Wilson,he can take hits, deliver the big plays, makes good decisions, and can escape the pocket
PackFan
07-08-2012
03:44 pm
xxx.xxx.xxx.135
(total posts: 1)
12
10
Another reason to like Worthy in the Packers' scheme is because they play in their sub packages about 85-90% of the time, meaning Worthy can line up inside and use his quickness to penetrate the gaps. Perry and Worthy will make a huge difference.
Matt
07-08-2012
12:11 pm
xxx.xxx.xxx.219
(total posts: 2)
268
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Tell Paul Ryan to suck an egg next time you see him.
from joe zig Pitts MA
07-08-2012
08:23 am
xxx.xxx.xxx7.53
(total posts: 1)
11
10
Hey Walt, do u think Reuben Randle is gonna beat out last yrs 3rd rd pick Jerrell Jerrnigan for the giants 3rd WR spot?
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2013 Fantasy Football Rankings - June 19
2014 NFL Mock Draft - June 18
Charlie's 2014 NFL Mock Draft - June 17
2013 NBA Mock Draft - May 22
NFL Picks - Feb. 3
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