2016 Fantasy Football: ADP, Yeah, You Know Me







By Chet Gresham - @Chet_G
Published July 14, 2016.

Follow @walterfootball for updates.

Average Draft Position is going to, of course, be in flux all the way up to Week 1, but with so many people already mock and real drafting; we already have some ADP numbers to look through. I've gone over to FantasyPros and used their ADP, which averages together different sites like Yahoo, ESPN, CBS, etc. ... You can check it out here.

I'll be going round by round looking at some players who stick out to me as good or bad values for this season in fake football.

Round 1:

ADP Player Name Position Team FFC ESPN CBS Yahoo DW Fantrax AVG
1Antonio BrownWRPIT1111111.0
2Le'Veon BellRBPIT2444223.0
3Odell Beckham Jr.WRNYG3362343.5
4Todd GurleyRBLA4626434.2
5Julio JonesWRATL5275554.8
6David JohnsonRBARI7793776.7
7Adrian PetersonRBMIN6939666.5
8Ezekiel ElliottRBDAL98871088.3
9Rob GronkowskiTENE111158898.7
10DeAndre HopkinsWRHOU8510109108.7
11Dez BryantWRDAL12121411111312.2
12Jamaal CharlesRBKC15101315141113.0


Antonio Brown seems to be the clear No. 1 pick this season in either Non-PPR or PPR leagues. He's my No. 1 player off the board as well, and I don't see that changing unless I'm in a league that only gives Brown half the points he deserves.

These are Non-PPR draft positions, but I still expect more wide receivers in the first round. I'll be waiting on Adrian Peterson and Jamaal Charles in order to grab A.J. Green or Allen Robinson instead. Wide receivers are just so much more reliable than running backs, and you usually have more wide receiver starters on your fantasy team, which means the top guys can be a scarcer commodity and safer.

Rob Gronkowski is such a boon in value-based drafting (VBD) that it's hard not to grab him when you have a chance. In VBD, a player's value isn't determined by the number of fantasy points they generate, but the difference in points between him and other players at his position. That usually gives Gronkowski a big lead, especially in head-to-head leagues, where each week you'll be putting Gronkowski up against someone who on average will score much fewer fantasy points.

If I had a perfect draft slot using this ADP, it would probably be the fifth spot, which would get me Julio Jones, with a fall back of Ezekiel Elliot or David Johnson.




Round 2:

ADP Player Name Position Team FFC ESPN CBS Yahoo DW Fantrax AVG
13A.J. GreenWRCIN10141613121513.3
14Jordy NelsonWRGB14151117161614.8
15Devonta FreemanRBATL17131219171215.0
16Lamar MillerRBHOU13181716131415.2
17Allen RobinsonWRJAC16191512151715.7
18Alshon JefferyWRCHI19202318181819.3
19Doug MartinRBTB22231921191920.5
20Brandon MarshallWRNYJ26242614202021.7
21Eddie LacyRBGB18271826212121.8
22Mark IngramRBNO25212529242224.3
23Mike EvansWRTB21253024222524.5
24Cam NewtonQBCAR33162720232924.7


The second round is packed with talent, of course, but what values are there this early? Not a ton, of course, but the value comes in the steady production of some of these players, while for others, it's in the upside.

Lamar Miller is one of those upside players who we've seen put up great numbers, but on a limited basis. Now with Bill O'Brien in Houston, Miller's ceiling just got raised, so the Texans could put in a loft for all his possible fantasy points. The worry is whether or not he can put together a full season of wear and tear on his body, but that's the obvious inherent question for any starting running back in fantasy. I might pick a wide receiver here because I've had luck going WR/WR to start drafts this year, but Miller is someone I'd grab when I'm feeling a bit risky, but feel I need to have a great season.

I'm not as high on Allen Robinson as some, but I love his ability and even though it will be tough for him to get the touchdowns he did last season, I expect another top year from him. I would be more than happy to take him as the eighth receiver off the board.

Then, right after Robinson is Alshon Jeffery, who I have been taking consistently in the mid-second round. The only flaws in his game are injuries, but receivers are still less injury-prone than running backs due to the amount of punishment running backs take on a play-to-play basis. I have seen running backs fall off the face of the earth after injuries, while still young, but receivers usually have an easier time getting over chronic problems like hamstring strains.

If I had my choice of any player in this round it would probably be A.J. Green. With Hue Jackson, Mohammad Sanu and Marvin Jones gone, along with Tyler Eifert hurt to start the season, Green should be a target monster, and we know he can put up big numbers with enough targets.




Round 3:

ADP Player Name Position Team FFC ESPN CBS Yahoo DW Fantrax AVG
25Amari CooperWROAK23322225252325.0
26Sammy WatkinsWRBUF35172127272625.5
27LeSean McCoyRBBUF27222034263026.5
28Brandin CooksWRNO28292430292727.8
29Thomas RawlsRBSEA24262837322428.5
30Keenan AllenWRSD20333631282829.3
31Aaron RodgersQBGB34283122303229.5
32Demaryius ThomasWRDEN31413423313131.8
33T.Y. HiltonWRIND32312935333432.3
34Matt ForteRBNYJ30353938363335.2
35Carlos HydeRBSF38363828353735.3
36Kelvin BenjaminWRCAR29403240383836.2


Round 3 brings us to a few players I will be skipping this high and a couple I like for value. Matt Forte scares me too much to take in the third round, despite loving his ability still. Now with a new team in his ninth season, Forte could be a part of a committee in the backfield to keep him fresh and healthy now that he's hit that 30-year mark. Bilal Powell had a good 2015, and the team wants to keep giving him work, while new acquisition Khiry Robinson could take away some early down/short-yardage work. This ADP is for Non-PPR, so I'd probably skip Forte in most non-PPR leagues, but if you're playing in a full-point-per-reception league, Forte is still a strong candidate to have a year that would live up to this early pick.

Kelvin Benjamin was a target hog during his rookie year, which helped him put up good fantasy numbers, but his efficiency with Cam Newton was horrendous. Last season, we saw the Panthers spread the ball around more, and there's a good chance Devin Funchess will continue to mature into a solid receiver, so the targets most likely won't be quite as heavy as they were for Benjamin in 2014. I'd like to have a better grasp on how much work my third-round receiver will get before investing in him.

Brandin Cooks will get a bit more space to work this season due to the acquisition of Coby Fleener and Michael Thomas this offseason. Cooks started off slowly last season, and Drew Brees wasn't 100 percent healthy, but Cooks still managed to have a Top-12 year. I think Cooks is destined for Top-10 this year.

As far as targets go, Keenan Allen was a target magnet through the first eight games last year, but missed the final half of the season to injury. In his eight games, he caught 67-of-89 targets for 725 yards and four touchdowns. With eight more games, all you have to do is double those numbers to extrapolate what a full season might have been for Allen. He is the Chargers' No. 1 receiver still, and they should have a better offensive line to help keep Rivers upright. Allen would be my choice in this round, but it would be close with Cooks.




Round 4:

ADP Player Name Position Team FFC ESPN CBS Yahoo DW Fantrax AVG
37C.J. AndersonRBDEN36383736343636.2
38Julian EdelmanWRNE40374732373938.7
39Jordan ReedTEWAS43344342414240.8
40Latavius MurrayRBOAK37513354433542.2
41Russell WilsonQBSEA57305133404642.8
42Randall CobbWRGB39524245424043.3
43Andrew LuckQBIND48484039394843.7
44Greg OlsenTECAR51395443444145.3
45Doug BaldwinWRSEA47445544464546.8
46Jonathan StewartRBCAR54424951454347.3
47DeMarco MurrayRBTEN42504553484947.8
48Jeremy HillRBCIN53493564504449.2


The fourth round has four of my favorite picks this year: C.J. Anderson, Russell Wilson, Jordan Reed and Doug Baldwin. But I will most likely miss out on Wilson unless he falls a bit further, as I rather wait on someone like Eli Manning or Philip Rivers while grabbing someone like Anderson in the fourth round.

Jordan Reed is a risky pick due to his injury history, but he also has the most upside of the tight ends outside of Rob Gronkowski. I'd rather get Reed a bit later than this if possible just to mitigate risk, but there are times when I'm willing to take that risk.

I want to like Latavius Murray, but he just didn't show me the talent I needed to see last season. The good news is that he's just got the one rookie, DeAndre Washington, to contend with this season. I think if you are really hurting at running back, I would go ahead and take Murray, but I'm not overly excited about it.

The other Murray, Demarco, had a horrible 2015 in Chip Kelly's offense, but now is in a much better offense suited to his abilities in Tennessee. I've gone back and forth on Murray due to his huge workload in 2014 and then his poor showing last season and the addition of Derrick Henry in the 2016 NFL Draft. But I'm starting to come back around on Murray. Henry is a rookie, and Murray supposedly has been the model player so far in Tennessee. He also fared much better between the tackles than outside them last year. Add that to the run-first attitude in Tennessee, and I think we'll get enough from Murray despite the questions surrounding him.

Anderson would be my pick if I had my druthers for the fourth round. I'd be more than happy to get three top wide receivers and start my running backs out with Anderson. I've been touting him a lot on this here website this year, so I won't go in-depth on him, but you can check my thoughts out here.




Round 5:

ADP Player Name Position Team FFC ESPN CBS Yahoo DW Fantrax AVG
49Jeremy MaclinWRKC50436050475050.0
50Jarvis LandryWRMIA41456548524749.7
51Ben RoethlisbergerQBPIT59466741495753.2
52Golden TateWRDET46546249555453.3
53Ryan MathewsRBPHI58634158515153.7
54Eric DeckerWRNYJ60476847595656.2
55Dion LewisRBNE45555281575257.0
56Jeremy LangfordRBCHI44664475625357.3
57Jay AjayiRBMIA52625068565557.2
58Drew BreesQBNO64566346536557.8
59Tyler EifertTECIN63615755546258.7
60Michael FloydWRARI56704860605858.7


The fifth round still has some solid wide receivers, while the running backs aren't quite as solid. I'd be more than happy with Jeremy Maclin or Eric Decker here, while in PPR leagues, I'd be going all out for Jarvis Landry or Golden Tate.

I like Ryan Matthews and really like that he doesn't have much competition behind him this season. Yes, his injury history is real and it's not spectacular, but in the fifth round, you have to make some sacrifices.

The same is true with Jay Ajayi. He will be Miami's starting running back and doesn't have a ton of competition for carries this season. Of course, I'd prefer Le'Veon Bell or Todd Gurley, but when you look at running backs, always consider what has to happen for them to lose their jobs. Injury. of course, and then, another player taking the job away. When I grab running backs in the fifth and sixth rounds, I want to be sure they aren't already locked up in a committee of some kind and have a good chance of being the lead back all season.

Jeremy Langford is a player I usually skip. There's a decent chance he'll be the lead back, but in a committee of some sort. John Fox has done this to us in the past, and Langford just isn't good enough to hold off Jordan Howard completely.

The quarterbacks here are, of course, top picks at their position, but I'm still of the mind that a player like Decker or Maclin gives you stability that you can't get later in the draft, whereas I still like later quarterbacks.




Round 6:

ADP Player Name Position Team FFC ESPN CBS Yahoo DW Fantrax AVG
61Matt JonesRBWAS49694679636061.0
62Larry FitzgeraldWRARI66585365665961.2
63Emmanuel SandersWRDEN61655674726365.2
64Travis KelceTEKC71647956586465.3
65Allen HurnsWRJAC55827261736167.3
66Delanie WalkerTETEN77539057617068.0
67Jordan MatthewsWRPHI68746967706769.2
68Carson PalmerQBARI83738752657772.8
69Devante ParkerWRMIA73687477757173.0
70John BrownWRARI76766678776873.5
71Tom BradyQBNE67599562649473.5
72Melvin GordonRBSD697958100766975.2


Round 6 has a mismatch of players, all with concerns. Matt Jones is much like the running backs Ajayi and Mathews from round five. Jones has the lead-back job and not a ton of competition waiting to grab it away from him. But, he also was not effective last season and had trouble securing the ball. Thankfully, that is built into his ADP, so you can get a starting running back for fairly cheap. I'm not a big enough fan to reach for him, but if you are hurting at the position in your draft, Jones is one of the last backs who should have the lead-back job coming out of camp.

Allen Hurns won't catch 10 touchdowns on 64 receptions this season, which will probably hurt his fantasy totals by a large margin. If he had 80-plus receptions then we can talk, but as a deep threat on a team that should run the ball more and have a healthier Julius Thomas, I'm staying far away.

Jordan Matthews is a player who I like a lot, but the uncertainty around the Eagles' offense concerns me. He's their No. 1 receiver, but also mostly plays out of the slot, which is a great spot in Chip Kelly's offense, but Doug Pederson's offense isn't the same, though the scheme should be flexible enough to get Matthews on the field full time. It's tough getting a player of his caliber in the sixth round, so I'm on board with drafting him and hopefully his ability will shine through.

I'm not on board the DeVante Parker hype-train just yet. Yes, he has great ability, but there are way too many questions surrounding this team to bank on Parker becoming a consistent fantasy play. I believe in Adam Gase, which makes it easier to see Parker as a breakout, but I also like Leonte Carroo quite a bit and could see him cutting into Parker's work.

My pick for this round would depend a lot on my picks for the previous rounds, but I'd probably go with Melvin Gordon at 72nd overall. I think he will flourish under Ken Whisenhunt and get the Chargers into more balance between running and passing. Gordon made plenty of rookie mistakes last year, but they were compounded by injuries to the offensive line and receivers. I believe a healthier Chargers team will be much more efficient in both aspects of the offense this season.


Round 7:

ADP Player Name Position Team FFC ESPN CBS Yahoo DW Fantrax AVG
73Frank GoreRBIND65817391717475.8
74Blake BortlesQBJAC791097659677277.0
75Coby FleenerTENO805786101687577.8
76Ameer AbdullahRBDET70965999826678.7
77Chris IvoryRBJAC621046492787979.8
78Donte MoncriefWRIND7460104108697882.2
79DeSean JacksonWRWAS87678987838382.7
80Kevin WhiteWRCHI84787896937684.2
81Giovani BernardRBCIN7210870104807384.5
82Duke JohnsonRBCLE7510061123798286.7
83Gary BarnidgeTECLE928410382748787.0
84T.J. YeldonRBJAC857580121818087.0


I'll call Round y the Donte Moncrief round. I've been playing in MFL10s, which are a best-ball format played by the most devout of fake footballers, and Moncrief has been going as the 24th wide receiver off the board, but here in regular re-draft mocks he's going as the 33rd receiver. I'm willing to grab Moncrief much earlier than this, so I'm more than happy to make him my pick for Round 7. He has all the ability to be the 1A to T.Y. Hilton's 1B, but even if Hilton leads the team in targets, Moncrief is a much better target in the end zone and should have more touchdowns overall.

Frank Gore now has Andrew Luck back, which should really open up some room for Gore at the line, but he's also old as dirt. There's a fine line to toe here, as the season is set up perfectly for Gore, but can we trust him in his 33-year-old body now in its 12th NFL season? Last year with no passing game to speak of, he still managed to finish as the 12th-best fantasy running back, and hey, he was 32 years old then. His 3.7 yards per carry last year was awful, but so was the offensive line and quarterback play. I'm willing to give him another shot if he falls into a value spot like this or later, but I'll probably try to pick up Josh Ferguson late as a handcuff.

This round has some nice PPR running backs who are good enough to do damage in non-PPR leagues. Giovani Bernard and Duke Johnson both have a ton of upside as pass catchers, but also are good enough to take over as an every-down back, plus the committee backs they need to compete with for playing time aren't all that great. Jeremy Hill and Isaiah Crowell are good enough, but I could see both Bernard and Johnson cutting into their respective workloads.


Round 8:

ADP Player Name Position Team FFC ESPN CBS Yahoo DW Fantrax AVG
85Danny WoodheadRBSD818371130868188.7
86Michael CrabtreeWROAK887110893958590.0
87Ladarius GreenTEPIT898511888888692.3
88Tyler LockettWRSEA8210210289949093.2
89Seattle SeahawksDSTSEA1147212966919193.8
90Justin ForsettRBBAL7887107113878893.3
91Marvin JonesWRDET96889695999594.8
92Denver BroncosDSTDEN10595121639010195.8
93Zach ErtzTEPHI1209411073849295.5
94Tony RomoQBDAL11298113729710098.7
95Sterling ShepardWRNYG11089851031149799.7
96Steve SmithWRBAL1031078211110893100.7


If you've read anything from me so far this year, then you know I'm all over Marvin Jones, especially as the 91st pick and 38th receiver off the board. I think he does an admirable job filling in for Calvin Johnson and will become the main red-zone target on a team that will pass the ball a lot. So we'll call this eighth round the Marvin Jones round, and henceforth, that will be its name.

Tyler Lockett is also nice value this late. I expect the Seahawks to throw more this year, and Lockett looked great in the second half of last season. I've been seeing him go earlier than this, but if you can secure him in the eighth round, do it.

Justin Forsett is pretty late for a starting running back, but he does have some good competition in Kenneth Dixon and Buck Allen, so I understand the hesitancy. Thankfully, Forsett's season-ending injury last year was to his arm and not his legs, which for his age, still don't have a ton of mileage on them. So, I'm grabbing him when he drops and I need a running back, but I don't have a ton of confidence in him controlling the job all season.

If you take a defense this early, you should be banned from playing fantasy football, so no, I don't care for the Broncos' pick.




Round 9:

ADP Player Name Position Team FFC ESPN CBS Yahoo DW Fantrax AVG
97Eli ManningQBNYG861101318485104100.0
98Rashad JenningsRBNYG9192911489699102.8
99Derrick HenryRBTEN1021148112098103103.0
100Corey ColemanWRCLE118808414910689104.3
101Karlos WilliamsRBBUF90181751158984105.7
102Carolina PanthersDSTCAR123771676910596106.2
103Julius ThomasTEJAC10112411794101108107.5
104Arizona CardinalsDSTARI10811215571107110110.5
105Stefon DiggsWRMIN10790106138133102112.7
106Markus WheatonWRPIT93111125117128106113.3
107Philip RiversQBSD9712613011492111111.7
108Jimmy GrahamTESEA10699123110140107114.2


Round 9 will be my quarterback round, as my two favorite picks are here, Eli Manning and Philip Rivers. I like both, but I prefer Manning and the up-tempo offense curated by Ben McAdoo. If I miss out on these two, I still like other quarterbacks, but might double up sooner than later on them so I can play matchups easier.

My quarterbacks coincide with a round of players I'm not too fond of, but Julius Thomas does stick out as a tight end who I'd be fine with as my starter. He has looked great this offseason in practice, and last year, he put up nice numbers when he got healthy. His upside is better than his ADP right now.

I'm assuming Karlos Williams' ADP will drop with news of him being overweight, which should also boost LeSean McCoy up some. That could be good as Williams will be a decent handcuff and flex play if he can get back into shape fast.

Rashad Jennings, who is 31, believes he's in the best shape of his life. That's probably an overstatement of gigantic proportions, but he is the lead back for the Giants and this late in the game, he's worth grabbing for teams that attack running backs with volume versus elite ability, like me.

This concludes today's "ADP, Yeah You Know Me." Stay tuned for a look at later rounds next time!

Also, check out our Fantasy Football Rankings.






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