Fantasy Football: The Things I Learned – Week 13, 2016

By Chet Gresham – @ChetGresham
Follow @walterfootball for updates.

Below, check out my fantasy-centered recaps of key players from this week’s contests. For instance, did a player come back to earth after an aberrant breakout, or were they simply affected by something like game flow?

Lions 28, Saints 13
Matthew Stafford had a great game, completing 30-of-42 passes for 341 yards and two touchdowns. He was extremely accurate and was able to control the clock while throwing the ball 42 times. His methodical, accurate drives were able to keep Drew Brees off the field, and Detroit’s defense was well-rested to take on the great passing ability of the Saints. Oh, and Stafford had a solid fantasy day as well!

Golden Tate was the only Lions player other than Stafford to put up a big day, which did seem likely after Marvin Jones was unable to go with a thigh injury. Tate caught 8-of-10 targets for 145 yards and a touchdown, racking up many of those yards after the catch. After being dropped in quite a few leagues due to a slow start, Tate has come on strong now and is helping fake football teams at a critical time.

Whoa, what happened Drew Brees? Well, the Lions’ offense held the ball for 37 minutes, but Brees was missing deep and getting intercepted as well. He completed 31-of-44 passes for 326 yards, zero touchdowns and three interceptions. This was his first zero-touchdown game at home since 2009.

Patriots 26, Rams 10
Tom Brady became the winningest quarterback of all time with 201 total wins, besting Peyton Manning’s record, but for fantasy football, it was a down game for Brady. He completed 33-of-46 passes for 269 yards and a touchdown for a middling 15 fantasy points.

Malcolm Mitchell was the biggest revelation in this game, as he was second in targets, catching 8-of-10 for 82 yards. He had been playing well of late, but he wasn’t getting the playing time that would make him a safe play in fantasy. That changed this week when the Patriots went to more three-wide receiver sets with Rob Gronkowski out for the year.

Jared Goff isn’t good or even close to it at the moment. He managed a touchdown pass to Kenny Britt late in garbage time, but for all intents and purposes, the Rams didn’t show up to this game where they were outgained 402 to 162 yards and went a measly 1-of-12 on third downs. Fisherball!! Extend his extension!

Broncos 20, Jaguars 10
Paxton Lynch completed just 12-of-24 passes for 104 yards, managing to not turn over the ball, but also to not score or do much of anything as he “led” his team to just one third-down conversion on 13 tries. Trevor Siemian is obviously better than Lynch at the moment and should be back by next week.

Really, the only spark the Broncos had on offense was from Kapri Bibbs, who carried the ball five times for 49 yards, setting up Devontae Booker’s lone touchdown as he carried the ball 18 times for 35 yards. Bibbs outgained Booker on 13 fewer carries, but unfortunately, Bibbs had to leave this game due to an ankle sprain that appears to be significant. Booker will retain the lead job without much competition, and Juwan Thompson is taking over the backup duties.

Blake Bortles completed 19-of-42 passes for 181 yards and two interceptions, one of which was returned for a touchdown by Aqib Talib. That was Bortles’ 11th interception returned for a touchdown in his short career. He’s just not good at the moment and next week against the Vikings isn’t going to be much better.

Bears 26, 49ers 6
Jordan Howard was the motor of the Bears’ offense at snowy Soldier Field, as he rushed 32 times for 117 yards and three touchdowns. Howard ran over the 49ers on his last touchdown run in a fashion that should cause much grief to anyone involved with that team.

Marquess Wilson went down with a groin injury in this game and never came back, which was unkind to many of my daily fantasy teams. Josh Bellamy and Cameron Meredith led the way after that and look to be the main targets if Eddie Royal and Wilson continue to be injured.

Colin Kaepernick was benched in the fourth quarter for Blaine Gabbert. Kaepernick wasn’t effective in the snow after he put a string of good fantasy games together over the previous few weeks. He is no doubt the better fantasy player and has looked like the better real player in comparison to Gabbert, but we’ll have to see whom Chip Kelly goes with against the Jets next week.

Packers 21, Texans 13
Aaron Rodgers completed 20-of-30 passes for 209 yards and two touchdowns, and didn’t need to do much more as the Texans offense wasn’t doing much until garbage time. His hamstring didn’t appear to be healthy, but he was able to move around enough to be effective and didn’t seem to re-injure it. He should be good to go against Seattle next week.

James Starks started this game, but Christine Michael ended up leading in rushing attempts with nine, though he only managed 19 yards. Starks, on the other hand, managed just one yard on four carries. The real winner in the backfield was Ty Montgomery, who rushed six times for 40 yards and caught 2-of-3 targets for 16 yards. Who knows how this backfield will shake down next week, but Montgomery has shown to be Green Bay’s best running back when give the chance.

Brock Osweiler wasn’t good again, but did manage to throw for two touchdowns, one of which went to DeAndre Hopkins in garbage time. This was against a pitiful Green Bay secondary, and Osweiler missed more throws than he made. He’ll get a nice matchup next week against the Colts, but you can’t trust him even against the worst defenses in the league.

Chiefs 29, Falcons 28
Alex Smith took advantage of a weak Atlanta pass defense, completing 21-of-25 passes for 270 yards and a touchdown. Unfortunately, that’s Smith taking advantage and when you tack on a fumble, he finished with just 12 fantasy points.

Travis Kelce was the main benefactor of Smith’s strong completion percentage, catching all eight of his targets for 140 yards. Smith, who seldom tests defenses deep, targeted Kelce on mid- and deep passes all day, and he was more than often quite open.

Spencer Ware led the way in fantasy, as he scored two touchdowns, one rushing and one receiving, but only totaled 52 yards on 17 touches. He actually could have had an even bigger day if Alex Smith hadn’t missed him on what should have been a 60-yard touchdown pass.

Matt Ryan will not be sending Eric Berry a Christmas card this season after Berry intercepted two of Ryan’s passes, returning one for a touchdown and the other for two points off a two-point conversion play that would have put the Falcons up by three late in the game. Ryan finished with a respectable 297 yards passing on 22-of-34 completions, but only got into the end zone once on a pass to Aldrick Robinson. It was just Ryan’s fourth game with fewer than two touchdown passes.

Julio Jones had a good game, catching 7-of-9 targets for 113 yards, but he also was injured for much of the fourth quarter. He says he will be okay, but this continues to be a problem with Jones.

Ravens 38, Dolphins 6
Joe Flacco came into this game with just two games in which he had thrown for more than one touchdown and nine games with one or fewer touchdown passes, so of course he completed 36-of-47 passes for 381 yards, four touchdowns and one interception. And these numbers were in no way fluky, as he picked the Dolphins apart. Flacco, of course, can’t be trusted for anything like these numbers moving forward, but he does get a nice matchup with the Patriots next week.

Dennis Pitta led the Ravens with 11 targets, which he caught nine of for 90 yards and two touchdowns. Those were his first touchdowns of the season and his highest yardage total since Week 2. Going into Week 14, i.e. the fantasy playoffs, I don’t know how we can trust either Flacco or Pitta, even after this blow-up game.

Terrance West also scored two touchdowns, one on the ground and the other through the air. He finished the day with 13 touches for 68 yards, while Kenneth Dixon had 10 touches for 77 yards. Dixon keeps outperforming West on a per-play basis, but West is the no-doubt goal-line back.

Ryan Tannehill was not good. Of course, the Ravens have been one of the best defenses in the league this year, but Tannehill had shown enough improvement of late to expect at least not a meltdown, but I think we can call it that after he threw three interceptions and totaled just 226 yards on 40 attempts.

The only touchdown Tannehill threw went to DeVante Parker, who had to convince the team that his back felt well enough to play. It’s a good sign that he was able to play through his injury and be effective.

Bengals 32, Eagles 14
Andy Dalton completed 23-of-31 passes for 332 yards and two touchdowns, and he looked good doing so. This is a team without A.J. Green and Gio Bernard, so I think we can put some of the blame on the Eagles’ defense, which has been being beaten a lot lately.

Brandon LaFell led the Bengals in targets, catching 5-of-7 targets for 95 yards and a touchdown. This was his highest yardage total of the season, and he now has 16 targets over his last two games. Tyler Eifert, who also caught a touchdown, and LaFell will continue to be the top two targets while Green is out.

Jeremy Hill rushed 23 times for 33 yards and a touchdown, plus caught two passes for 12 yards. That’s an anemic 1.43 yards per carry. Rex Burkhead actually looked a bit better as he rushed eight times for 38 yards and caught 4-of-5 targets for 28 yards. Hill will remain the lead back, but Burkhead is going to continue to see work.

Carson Wentz passed the ball an alarming 60 times, completing 36 for 308 yards, one touchdown and three interceptions. The Eagles fell behind quickly so Wentz had to pass the ball a ton. Unfortunately, he didn’t have Jordan Matthews or Ryan Mathews or even Cory Matthews.

Zach Ertz put up good numbers, but needed 16 targets to catch nine passes for 79 yards and a touchdown. Garbage time is usually good for somebody, and Ertz was the benefactor this week.

Raiders 38, Bills 24
Derek Carr was fine in this game, but not his usual self as he completed 19-of-35 passes for 260 yards and two touchdowns, one to Michael Crabtree and the other to Amari Cooper.

The bulk of the offense came from Latavius Murray, who touched the ball 23 times for 105 yards and two short touchdown runs. He’s now up to 11 touchdowns on the season and has 17 or more touches in each of his last four games.

LeSean McCoy had two touchdowns vultured by Mike Gillislee, but McCoy put together such a nice game that he still had 19 standard fantasy points despite not getting into the end zone. He rushed 17 times for 130 yards and caught 7-of-7 targets for 61 yards. He’s just good at football is all.

Sammy Watkins played a lot more this week and saw nine targets, but only caught three for 38 yards. He’s not likely to be 100 percent anytime soon, but he’s going to play and will have upside next week against the Steelers.

Buccaneers 28, Chargers 21
Chargers cornerback Casey Hayward got the best of Mike Evans this week, holding him to three receptions for 38 yards on six targets. But that did free up Cameron Brate, who led the team, catching 6-of-9 targets for 86 yards and a touchdown. This was the same dynamic that led to Brate’s big game against Chicago. They play the Saints next week, so expect Evans to bounce back.

Doug Martin toted the rock 17 times for 45 yards and a touchdown, plus caught one pass for 23 yards. Martin then had to leave for the Buccaneers last three drives due to an injury. The team didn’t elaborate on the injury, just saying that he was “bent back.”

Melvin Gordon was San Diego’s best player, as he rushed 17 times for 84 yards and a touchdown and caught 4-of-6 targets for 54 yards. This has been a breakout season for Gordon, as he now has 1,411 total yards and 12 touchdowns through 12 games.

Tyrell Williams caught a touchdown, but only saw four targets and appeared to not be 100 percent with the torn labrum in his shoulder. Right now, Dontrelle Inman may be the best shot at fantasy value moving forward. He also caught a touchdown and had one more target than Williams.

Steelers 24, Giants 14
Ben Roethlisberger checked down to Le’Veon Bell, hit Ladarius Green on chunk plays, and sat back as Eli Manning couldn’t move the ball. Roethlisberger completed 24-of-36 passes for 289 yards, two touchdowns and one interception. It was a good fantasy day because New York’s defense is actually darn good.

Ladarius Green caught 6-of-11 targets for 110 yards and a touchdown, leading the team in targets and yards, while also setting his career highs. Green added a dimension to this offense that Sammie Coates was before breaking his fingers.

Le’Veon Bell rushed 29 times for 118 yards and caught 6-of-7 targets for 64 yards. He didn’t get in the end zone for the first time since Week 9, but again showed how high his upside is with such a large share of the Steelers’ offense.

Odell Beckham Jr. saw one target in the first half and then 15 in the second half. He caught 10 for 100 yards and no touchdowns on the day and was victim to a poorly run offense.

Cardinals 31, Redskins 23
Carson Palmer completed 30-of-46 passes for 300 yards and three touchdowns, having one of his best games in a while. He finished this game with 24 fantasy points, tying his season high, which came in Week 2. He does have three straight games with two or more touchdown passes at the moment and visits a Miami team that just gave up four touchdowns to Joe Flacco next week.

David Johnson is a cheat code. He now is averaging over 20 standard fantasy points per game! Add in his 64 receptions, and you have the best fantasy running back we’ve seen in a while. Against Washington, he ran the ball 18 times for 84 yards and a touchdown, plus caught 9-of-12 targets for 91 yards and another touchdown. Johnson now has 1,709 yards and 15 touchdowns through 12 games.

Pierre Garcon led the team in targets, receptions and yardage with Jordan Reed out, catching 7-of-9 targets for 78 yards. Garcon’s upside isn’t great, but if Reed is out again, Garcon should continue to rack up the targets.

Rob Kelley looked good, even against the stout Arizona run defense, but his lack of receptions and work in the passing game keeps him off the field too often when Washington is trailing, like today.

Seahawks 40, Panthers 7
Thomas Rawls got off to a blistering start, scoring two touchdowns – one from eight yards out and the other a 45-yarder – in the first half. He had to leave to get checked for a concussion, but was cleared. But with a huge lead, the Seahawks didn’t risk his health, so he finished with those two touchdowns and 118 yards on 16 touches.

Russell Wilson completed 26-of-36 passes for 277 yards, one touchdown and one interception. He also added 29 yards on the ground on three carries. Wilson looked good, but Rawls had two rushing touchdowns and Tyler Lockett added a 75-yard run for another touchdown, so the game was out of hand and Wilson didn’t need to score anymore with the Panthers stymied on offense. Wilson’s back, again.

Cam Newton was benched for the first play, supposedly due to him not wearing a tie to the game. Derek Anderson then threw an interception on the first play. It’s kind of funny unless you are a Panthers fan. Newton went on to complete just 13-of-31 passes for 175 yards and a touchdown. That touchdown and nearly half of the yards went to Ted Ginn, who caught 5-of-6 targets for 80 yards and a touchdown. He now has three games in a row with a touchdown after catching zero in his first nine games.

For more thoughts, check out Walt’s updated NFL Power Rankings, which will be posted Tuesday morning.

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Fantasy Football: The Things I Learned – Week 13, 2016

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