Week 12 NFL Picks

NFL Picks (Week 1, 2008): 11-5 (+$1,470)
NFL Picks (Week 2, 2008): 7-7-1 (-$100)
NFL Picks (Week 3, 2008): 10-6 (+$860)
NFL Picks (Week 4, 2008): 6-7 (-$350)
NFL Picks (Week 5, 2008): 8-6 (+$230)
NFL Picks (Week 6, 2008): 9-5 (+$2,260)
NFL Picks (Week 7, 2008): 4-10 (-$770)
NFL Picks (Week 8, 2008): 9-4-1 (+$1,620)
NFL Picks (Week 9, 2008): 6-8 (-$980)
NFL Picks (Week 10, 2008): 4-10 (-$2,690)
NFL Picks (Week 11, 2008): 9-7 (-$170)

NFL Picks (Reg Season 2008): 83-75-2 (+$1,380)
If you don’t quite understand the line, total or anything else, go to my Sports Betting FAQ.

Vegas betting action updated Nov. 24, 4:20 p.m. ET.

Go to Week 12 NFL Picks – Late Games

Cincinnati Bengals (1-8-1) at Pittsburgh Steelers (7-3)
Line: Steelers by 11.5. Total: 34.5.
Walt’s Projected Line (Before Week 11): Steelers -14.
Walt’s Projected Line (After Week 11): Steelers -14.
Thursday, 8:15 ET – Buy Tickets

The Game. Edge: Steelers.

Injuries: Bengals: OUT: RB Kenny Irons (IR), WR Chad Ocho Cinco*, OLB Keith Rivers (IR), S Dexter Jackson (IR). DOUBTFUL: OT Levi Jones, G Andrew Whitworth. Steelers: OUT: QB Charlie Batch, RB Rashard Mendenhall (IR), G Kendall Simmons (IR), P Daniel Sepulveda (IR), LS Greg Warren (IR).

Though I didn’t win any units last week – in fact, I lost 1.5 as an e-mailer eloquently pointed out (more on this later) – it felt good to bounce back with a winning record. Going 9-7 isn’t anything to be proud of, but it’s something I desperately needed after getting debacled two weeks in a row. It was awesome to be on the right side of a B.S. call (Steelers-Chargers ending), but it’s not like San Diego was the wrong side. If that touchdown stood, it would have been one of the worst beats I’ve ever had, ranking near Sage Rosenchoker’s meltdown earlier in the year.

I have to apologize though – I don’t have any trends for teams coming off 11-10 victories where the last play is a nullified touchdown by larcenous officials. My bad.

PITTSBURGH OFFENSE: There’s a good chance of snow here. The temperature will be 30 or less. Winds will be gusting around 15 mph. Naturally, you have to assume that the Steelers have a tremendous edge because they’ll be able to run the ball and keep the time-of-possession battle in their favor. That should make sense because the Bengals have a bow-tie salesman starting at middle linebacker. However, it should be noted that Cincinnati hasn’t surrendered more than 100 rushing yards to a single running back since Week 7. That list includes Maurice Jones-Drew, Fred Taylor, Steve Slaton and Brian Westbrook.

That said, the Week 7 performance came from Mewelde Moore, who gained 120 yards on just 20 carries. With that in mind, Pittsburgh should be able to occasionally move the chains with Willie Parker, setting up easy play-action opportunities for Ben Roethlisberger.

Last week, Roethlisberger played his best game in a month, torching San Diego’s secondary on 31-of-41 passing for 308 yards. He was sacked four times, but that won’t be an issue on Thursday night because the Bengals’ pathetic pass rush has just 11 sacks on the year.

CINCINNATI OFFENSE: It’s really amazing that the Bengals are undefeated in their last two games, given how anemic their offense is. With Ryan Fitzpatrick under center, the team is averaging 12.7 points per contest. Cincinnati can’t run the ball (Cedric Benson is averaging 3.2 yards per carry) or pass protect (38 sacks allowed).

The latter statistic poses a major problem against the Steelers, who boast the league’s fiercest pass rush. Making things worse, two of Cincinnati’s key offensive linemen, Andrew Whitworth and Levi Jones, are doubtful for this game. I have no idea how the Bengals are going to keep LaMarr Woodley and James Harrison out of the backfield.

RECAP: If the Bengals had a healthy offensive line, I’d consider playing them for multiple units. I still think they’re the right side for numerous reasons.

First, the Steelers may not be up for this game, as they have New England, Dallas, Baltimore and Tennessee after this “easy win.”

Second, the Bengals always play Pittsburgh tough the second time around (check the trends below).

And third, I don’t see how you can lay double digits in this league anymore. Double-digit favorites are an anemic 1-12 against the spread this season, as parity is more prevalent than ever.

THURSDAY AFTERNOON UPDATE: Chad Ocho Cinco is out. To me, this isn’t a big deal because he has sucked all year. I still like the Bengals and the Over.

The Psychology. Edge: Bengals.

This game means the world to the Bengals. They can’t make the playoffs, but beating the Steelers would make their season. Meanwhile, the Steelers will be unfocused here. They’re coming off two tough victories. After this “easy win,” they have the Patriots, Cowboys, Ravens and Titans. This is a Breather Alert for Pittsburgh.

The Vegas. Edge: Bengals.

With Chad Ocho Cinco out, people are pounding the Steelers.

Percentage of money on Pittsburgh: 81% (96,000 bets)

The Trends. Edge: Bengals.

History: Road Team has won 7 of the last 8 meetings.

Parity Poison: Double-digit favorites are 1-12 ATS in 2008.

Vengeance: Marvin Lewis is 6-2 ATS in divisional revenge game.

Bengals are 16-4 ATS against the Steelers if they lost to them previously the same season in the last 20 instances.

Bengals are 4-1 ATS as double-digit underdogs under Marvin Lewis.

Ben Roethlisberger is 51-20 as a starter (41-30 ATS).

Opening Line: Steelers -10.

Opening Total: 36.5.

Weather: Possible snow showers, 30 degrees. Mild wind, 15 mph.

Week 12 NFL Pick: Steelers 24, Bengals 17
Bengals +11.5 (1 Unit) — Incorrect; -$110
Over 34.5 (2 Units) — Correct; +$200
Survivor Pick (9-2)
Steelers 27, Bengals 10

Steelers-Bengals Recap

Minnesota Vikings (5-5) at Jacksonville Jaguars (4-6)
Line: Jaguars by 2.5. Total: 40.5.
Walt’s Projected Line (Before Week 11): Jaguars -3.
Walt’s Projected Line (After Week 11): Jaguars -3.
Sunday, 1:00 ET – Buy Tickets

The Game. Edge: Vikings.

Injuries: Vikings: OUT: DE Kenechi Udeze (IR), DT Kendrick Allen (IR), ILB E.J. Henderson, CB Charles Gordon (IR), S Madieu Williams, S Michael Boulware (IR). QUESTIONABLE: DE Jared Allen. Jaguars: OUT: WR Reggie Williams, G Vince Manuwai (IR), G Maurice Williams (IR), G Chris Naeole (IR).

Even with the larcenous Pittsburgh-San Diego ending assisting them, the sportsbooks lost a ton of money for the second straight weekend. Imagine what would have happened if that touchdown stood. Makes you think someone phoned in during the official’s ruling on the replay, which coincidentally took about five minutes. But that’s crazy talk – sports aren’t rigged, especially the NBA! It’s not possible that there was any larceny involved! Impossible, I tells ya!

Sarcasm aside, Vegas is going to have a big bounce-back week sometime soon. Things were going well for the house on Sunday until it lost four of the five late games, as Arizona, Tennessee, San Francisco and Dallas all covered despite the fact that they were four of the more publicly backed teams in Week 11.

If I’m right about Vegas rebounding with a vengeance, the Vikings are going to cover this game, given that there is a ton of money on the host. But I like Minnesota for a myriad of reasons. Let’s go over them, shall we?

MINNESOTA OFFENSE: It’s no secret that the Jaguars suck at life at nearly every aspect of football this year. Defensively, they can’t stop the run or the pass, ranking 20th and 25th in those respective categories. Meanwhile, no one has more than two sacks.

Even an inept coach like Brad Clueless can figure out that the key to victory here is pounding the rock with Adrian Peterson, though I’m not completely sure, given that Peterson didn’t get a single carry in the fourth quarter at Tampa Bay. Clueless has been criticized for abandoning the run, despite never trailing by more than six points, so he’ll probably make it an effort to give Peterson the ball as much as possible.

With Peterson ripping off five yards per carry, Gus Frerotte will have an easier time locating Bernard Berrian and Visanthe Shiancoe downfield. Jacksonville’s secondary is so bad that Justin Gage torched them twice for long gains. I’m expecting the same thing out of Berrian.

JACKSONVILLE OFFENSE: What offense? The Jaguars can’t do anything on this side of the ball either. Because of injuries to their offensive front, Maurice Jones-Drew and Fred Taylor are gaining a combined 3.9 yards per carry, a figure that will continue to drop against Minnesota’s third-ranked run defense.

Garrard, meanwhile, has struggled against the league’s superior stop units this year. Last week, he was a pathetic 13-of-30 for 135 yards, an interception and a fumble. In the fourth quarter, he was responsible for three consecutive three-and-outs and a subsequent interception.

There’s a chance Matt “Coke Zero” Jones could be back, though there’s a strong possibility that he won’t be 100 percent. He could also be suspended. If Jones isn’t at full strength, all hope could be lost against a solid Minnesota defense that boasts a powerful pass rush (26 sacks).

RECAP: Aside from the matchups, there are a number of reasons I love the Vikings in this spot.

First and foremost, Minnesota is the better team. Jacksonville sucks this year. They don’t deserve to be favored.

And I don’t know how the Jaguars can possibly get up for this game. Last week was their Super Bowl. They gave it their all against the undefeated Titans, as they managed to jump out to a 14-3 lead. However, they just didn’t have the talent to keep up and consequently lost. After such an emotional contest, bringing that same intensity will be a major problem.

Also, the Vikings need a win here to avoid falling to 5-6. Going into this two-game Florida trip, one can only assume that their goal was to make it out alive with a 1-1 record. Because they lost a close battle to Tampa Bay, they need a victory.

You can say the Jaguars are in a must-win situation as well, but one could argue that they know their season is lost. They’re two games out of a wild card spot, but they’re behind a billion teams. They’d have to run the table just to have a shot at the postseason.

And finally, as I mentioned earlier, the public is on the Jaguars. After a pair of miserable weeks, Vegas has to rebound.

The Psychology. Edge: Vikings.

I can’t see the Jaguars getting up for this game. They just played their Super Bowl against the Titans. They’ll be flat.

The Vegas. Edge: None.
The public loved the Jaguars early, but action has leveled out.

Percentage of money on Minnesota: 54% (94,000 bets)

The Trends. Edge: Vikings.

Road Warrior: Coaches are 122-81 ATS on the road following a road loss since 1996 (Brad Childress 2-0).

Vikings are 6-10 ATS in outdoor games under Brad Childress.

Jaguars are 11-6 ATS in November home games since 2000.

Opening Line: Jaguars -1.5.

Opening Total: 39.5.

Weather: Partly cloudy, 63 degrees. Light wind.

Week 12 NFL Pick: Vikings 27, Jaguars 17
Vikings +2.5 (5 Units) — Correct; +$500
Over 40.5 (.5 Units) — Correct; +$50
Vikings 30, Jaguars 12

Buffalo Bills (5-5) at Kansas City Chiefs (1-9)
Line: Bills by 3. Total: 42.5.
Walt’s Projected Line (Before Week 11): Bills -3.
Walt’s Projected Line (After Week 11): Bills -1.5.
Sunday, 1:00 ET – Buy Tickets

The Game. Edge: .
Injuries: Bills: OUT: DE Aaron Schobel, OLB Angelo Crowell (IR), ILB John DiGiorgio (IR), CB Ashton Youboty (IR). Chiefs: OUT: QB Brodie Croyle (IR), QB Damon Huard (IR), RB Kolby Smith (IR), DE Turk McBride (IR).

Last week, I talked about not getting any hate mail despite having two miserable weeks in a row. Well, I finally received two negative e-mails. The first came on Friday morning from a man named Sham. Check out the barely edited version:

I’ve been following your forum since before week 1 of this 2008 season and at first i was wowed by the time and effort you took to creat such a good site to refer to for my office football pool which is also based upon spreads.

After 11 weeks i’ve only noticed one major point and that is YOU SUCK IN LIFE!! your ideas are useless and everytime you put 3 or more units i alaways pick the other team…the only thing you are good for is when i have doubts about a team i come to your site to see who u pick and go with the opposite

Keep up the great work

A compliment, then an insult, and then another compliment? I don’t know what to think. I do feel sorry for Sham though; if he’s been going against me this whole year, he’s actually down because as of Week 11, I was up 15 units or so. Maybe that’s why Sham was so angry.

I’ll post the second hate mail later. For now, I think we can assume that Sham is as frustrated as Bills fans. Seriously, everyone at Ralph Wilson Stadium had to be thinking “Wide Right” when Rian Lindell was lining up for the game-winning field goal. I’m convinced that Buffalo is cursed. There is no other reasonable explanation. Someone in the Bills organization obviously pissed on some Indian burial ground. That has to be it.

BUFFALO OFFENSE: The silver lining is that after failing to score more than 17 points against any of their divisional foes, the Bills finally found some sort of rythym on offense. Marshawn Lynch eclipsed the 100-yard barrier for the first time all year, as his beleaguered offensive line was able to open up huge holes for him.

Meanwhile, after a rocky start, Trent Edwards led the Bills on numerous impressive scoring drives, though it should be noted that Edwards held on to the ball way too long in the pocket, which means one of two things: His receivers couldn’t get open against Cleveland’s secondary (unlikely) or he lacked confidence (very likely).

Buffalo’s long-awaited offensive surge came against the lowly Browns, but when you’ve lost four in a row, you have to take what you can get. Luckily, the Bills play Kansas City’s banged-up defense this week. The Chiefs’ embarrassing pass rush has only six sacks on the year. They’re also ranked dead last versus the run.

Look for another dominant performance from Lynch, setting up easy passing situations for Edwards. This is a perfect opportunity for Edwards to regain some of the confidence he lost against the Dolphins, Jets and Patriots.

KANSAS CITY OFFENSE: As I mentioned in my NFL Power Rankings, I still can’t get over the fact that the Chiefs finally have a legitimate starting quarterback. Being a Dwayne Bowe fantasy owner in three leagues, I’m thrilled, so I can only imagine how Kansas City fans feel right now.

Buffalo looked like it would have a solid defense at the beginning of the year, but injuries, particularly in the secondary, have taken their toll on the squad. There’s no reason not to expect another solid outing from Tyler Thigpen.

Larry Johnson won’t have much luck running the ball against Marcus Stroud, but I don’t think that will matter at all. The Chiefs had plenty of success moving the chains when Johnson was parading across the country and spitting at women everywhere.

RECAP: Who are the Bills to be favored on the road? And why is the public betting on them? As if Buffalo didn’t have enough pressure to snap out of a four-game losing streak in the first place…

I know they’re playing Kansas City, but the Chiefs are playing really well right now. They were competitive against the Saints, and before that, they lost to the Chargers, Buccaneers and Jets by an average of 2.7 points. This could be the game they break through and finally win with their new quarterback.

The Psychology. Edge: Chiefs.
The Chiefs are playing hard. One can only guess how the tanking Bills are going to react after losing a tough game against the Browns.

The Vegas. Edge: Chiefs.
People are still betting on the Bills despite their performance on Monday night.

Percentage of money on Buffalo: 64% (114,000 bets)

The Trends. Edge: Bills.

Hometown Hero: Herm Edwards is 4-2 ATS at home immediately following a home loss.

Bills are 12-3 ATS against losing teams since 2006.

Chiefs are 3-9 ATS at home since 2007.

Opening Line: Bills -3.

Opening Total: 43.5.

Weather: Partly cloudy, 57 degrees. Mild wind, 11 mph.

Week 12 NFL Pick: Chiefs 20, Bills 17
Chiefs +3 (1 Unit) — Incorrect; -$110
Under 42.5 (1 Unit) — Incorrect; -$110
Bills 54, Chiefs 31

New England Patriots (6-4) at Miami Dolphins (6-4)
Line: Patriots by 1. Total: 42.5.
Walt’s Projected Line (Before Week 11): Patriots -3.
Walt’s Projected Line (After Week 11): Patriots -3.
Sunday, 1:00 ET – Buy Tickets

The Game. Edge: Dolphins.
Injuries: Patriots: OUT: QB Tom Brady (IR), RB Laurence Maroney (IR), OT Ryan O’Callaghan (IR), OT Oliver Ross, OT Anthony Clement (IR), G Stephen Neal, CB Terrence Wheatley (IR), S Rodney Harrison (IR), S Tank Williams (IR). Dolphins: OUT: G Donald Thomas (IR), CB Michael Lehan (IR).

I received a second piece of hate mail on Tuesday morning. This was from someone who called himself “P.Diddy.” Here’s the unedited version of his e-mail:

lol u lost mony three weekz in a row. u suck. jak***

I’m disappointed. I was expecting a great rapper like Puff Daddy to write a more eloquent and insightful e-mail, given that his lyrics are unparalleled. “P.Diddy, runnin the city!” You can’t beat that!

I find it funny that Puff Daddy spelled five out of the 12 words in his e-mail incorrectly, if you count the “u”. But he definitely made up for it by spelling weeks with a “Z.” That is uber cool!

I don’t know how you jump from that brilliant e-mail to this game, so let’s just begin talking about the matchups.

MIAMI OFFENSE: Everyone remembers what happened the last time the Patriots and Dolphins clashed. Miami shocked unprepared New England by resurrecting the Wildcat offense, burning the Patriots for 216 rushing yards in a 38-13 victory.

It’s safe to say the Patriots will be prepared for the Wildcat this time around, but I have to believe that Miami has another trick up its sleeve. The Dolphins hate New England with a passion, and winning this contest could be the game that propels them into the playoffs and knocks the Patriots out of contention. I don’t know what Tony Sparano and Bill Parcells are planning, but I can’t wait to see it.

Thomas Jones was able to run all over New England’s defensive front on Thursday night, so Ronnie Brown and Ricky Williams could have similar success, setting up play-action opportunities for Chad Pennington. Pennington was 17-of-20 for 226 yards in the aforementioned matchup, and that was with Rodney Harrison and Adalius Thomas in the lineup. We all saw how Brett Favre torched New England’s secondary. Expect that to continue on Sunday.

NEW ENGLAND OFFENSE: Though I think Miami will consistently score against the Patriots, this game won’t be a blowout because Matt Cassel has improved tremendously since going 19-of-31 for 131 yards in that Week 3 tilt.

Cassel isn’t even close to Tom Brady because he can’t throw the ball downfield, but he’s excellent at converting third downs. Of course, it helps that he has the talented Randy Moss and Wes Welker by his side.

However, because Miami is very stout against the run – the Dolphins held Sammy Morris and LaMont Jordan to 49 yards on 15 carries in their 38-13 victory – Cassel will once again have to do everything on his own. The Dolphins have an effective pass rush, so they’ll put tons of pressure on Cassel.

RECAP: Does anyone else find it really shady that despite an overwhelming percentage of money on New England, Miami is favored? Besides the fact that the Dolphins have the Patriots’ number, regardless of whether or not Tom Brady is under center, public betting has to tell you that the host is the right side.

My only concern is that historically, the Patriots are exceptional coming off a loss. They also thrive in divisional revenge games. That’s why I’m keeping this at one unit.

The Psychology. Edge: None.
Major game for both teams that could determine the second team to qualify for the playoffs from the AFC East.

The Vegas. Edge: Dolphins.

Everyone is betting the Patriots like they have Monday’s edition of the Boston Globe.

Percentage of money on New England: 89% (163,000 bets)

The Trends. Edge: Patriots.

History: Home Team has won 9 of the last 14 meetings.

Winning Coach: Bill Belichick is 10-3 ATS after losing as a favorite.

Vengeance: Bill Belichick is 3-0 ATS in divisional revenge games.

Patriots are 26-13 ATS vs. AFC East opponents since 2001.

Dolphins are 5-15 ATS vs. AFC East since 2005.

Chad Pennington is 15-9 ATS as a home favorite.

Opening Line: Dolphins -3.

Opening Total: 42.

Weather: Possible showers, 77 degrees. Mild wind, 14 mph.

Week 12 NFL Pick: Dolphins 24, Patriots 16
Dolphins +1 (1 Unit) — Incorrect; -$110
Under 42.5 (1 Unit) — Incorrect; -$110
Patriots 48, Dolphins 28

Tampa Bay Buccaneers (7-3) at Detroit Lions (0-10)
Line: Buccaneers by 8. Total: 42.
Walt’s Projected Line (Before Week 11): Buccaneers -7.5.
Walt’s Projected Line (After Week 11): Buccaneers -7.5.
Sunday, 1:00 ET – Buy Tickets

The Game. Edge: Buccaneers.

Injuries: Buccaneers: OUT: RB Earnest Graham (IR), FB Byron Storer (IR), CB Torrie Cox (IR), CB Sammy Davis (IR). Lions: OUT: QB Jon Kitna (IR), CB Stanley Wilson (IR), S Gerald Alexander (IR).

Bill Simmons inspired this feature. A few years ago, Simmons speculated on what Jim Haslett, a lame-duck coach with the Saints, could do to get fired. Rod Marinelli seems to be in the same position. I’m convinced Marinelli could do whatever he wants and he still wouldn’t get axed.

In fact, let’s put it to the test. Here are some things Marinelli could do and the odds that he would keep his job.

100% Job Security – Start a crappy, journeyman quarterback just coming off retirement instead of a young, second-round prospect who has never been given a chance.

100% Job Security – Start a bust, legally troubled running back over a promising rookie runner.

99% Job Security – Go on a 6-month sabbatical to create a CD for a Peruvian Flute Band.

97.4% Job Security – Sleep with William Clay Ford’s mom (and if Clay Ford’s age is any indication, his mom should be approximately 270 years old.)

1% Job Security – Admit that he doesn’t know if NFL games can end in a tie or not.

MATCHUPS: I’m not going to spend a lot of time delving into the matchups. There’s no point. Detroit’s defense can stop neither the run nor the pass, so Warrick Dunn will compile about 500 rushing yards in this contest, allowing Jeff Garcia to convert easy short-yardage situations. On the other side of the ball, Tampa Bay will shut down the run – Kevin Smith gained 100 yards for the first time in his career last week – forcing Daunte Culpepper to do all the work himself. The Buccaneers have a very opportunistic defense, so they might be able to create a number of turnovers in this contest. They’ll also pressure Culpepper, as Detroit has already surrendered 37 sacks on the year.

That’s basically it in terms of matchups. I’ll now move on to why I believe Detroit is worth a big play.

COURAGEOUS LIONS: I don’t think the Lions are going 0-16. They have to win one of these games. Excluding a blowout loss against desperate Jacksonville in a very odd Week 10, Detroit has been competitive in every contest it has played since Oct. 12. The team has lost to Houston, 5-5 Minnesota, 6-4 Washington, 5-5 Chicago and 8-2 Carolina by single digits.

BEST CHANCE/FORMER COACH: Believe it or not, this is the Lions’ best chance to win a game this year. I say that for two reasons. First, looking at the schedule, they have Tennessee, Minnesota, Indianapolis, New Orleans and Green Bay coming up. All five of those teams are 5-5 or better.

Second, Rod Marinelli used to coach the Buccaneers. If you’re new to this site, coaches going against their former teams are usually successful because they’re familiar with their old squad’s personnel and game plan. Last year, Marinelli beat Tampa Bay at home, 23-16.

ROAD WOES: Speaking of Detroit being at home, the Buccaneers are much worse on the road than they are at the New Sombraro. They’re 2-3 as visitors, recently losing to Brad Johnson and needing a miraculous comeback to knock off the Chiefs.

If Tampa Bay can barely win as visitors, how will it cover 8.5 points? The Buccaneers are 2-7 against the spread as road favorites since 2004.

RED ZONE WOES: Asking the Buccaneers to cover 8.5 points is ridiculous, regardless of where they play. They’re just way too inconsistent in the red zone. Tampa Bay drove deep into Minnesota territory six times on Sunday and had to settle for five field goals. The Buccaneers also had a habit of stalling against the defensively challenged Cowboys and Seahawks.

RECAP: Believe it or not, I’m considering Detroit as my November Pick of the Month. “Considering” being the key word here. I was hoping for the public to back Tampa Bay, but it’s looking like 50-50 action. I also love another game just as much. And besides, the Lions are the Lions. Stay tuned to see whom I make my November Pick of the Month. For now, this will be a 5-unit selection.

The Psychology. Edge: Lions.

The Buccaneers have three consecutive divisional battles after this “easy win” against a winless team. I can’t see them being focused in this Breather Alert. Rod Marinelli coached the Buccaneers from 1996 to 2005.

The Vegas. Edge: Lions.
Equal action. I’m a bit disappointed more bettors aren’t on the Buccaneers.

Percentage of money on Tampa Bay: 64% (115,000 bets)

The Trends. Edge: Lions.

Zero Heroes: Teams 0-10 or worse 7-2 ATS since 2000 (4-1 vs. winning teams).

Buccaneers are 9-21 ATS on the road after a win under Jon Gruden.

Buccaneers are 2-7 ATS as road favorites since 2004.

Opening Line: Buccaneers -9.

Opening Total: 41.5.

Weather: Dome.

Week 12 NFL Pick: Buccaneers 27, Lions 24
Lions +8 (8 Units – November Pick of the Month) — Incorrect; -$880
Over 42 (1 Unit) — Correct; +$100
Buccaneers 38, Lions 20

New York Jets (7-3) at Tennessee Titans (10-0)
Line: Titans by 5.5. Total: 40.5.
Walt’s Projected Line (Before Week 11): Titans -7.
Walt’s Projected Line (After Week 11): Titans -7.
Sunday, 1:00 ET – Buy Tickets

The Game. Edge: Tennessee.

Injuries: Jets: OUT: RB Jesse Chatman (IR), ILB Brad Kassell (IR). Titans: OUT: CB Reynaldo Hill, CB Eric King.

Last week, I showed you a shady e-mail I received from some weirdo who wanted me to tutor his son. A few hours after I posted that, I received a similar e-mail:

My name is mrs shalot. I’m interested in you lesson. I would like you to be taking my daughter your leson while i am at work in your location. I live in England, but i’m moving to your area beacause i’m having a contract with Issey Miyake Jnr. I work as a model and the contract will be just for FOUR weeks.

It will be so difficult for me to see you, in this case you have to assist me alot on by taking her the leson , cause i will be busy all through. Her name is (Juliet), she is 18 years old. So i’m paying you with a cashier check as soon as everything has been consider as deal. i will like to know how much you charge to take here for 4 weeks and also you dont have to worry i havenegotiate with a cab driver that will always driving her down to your place go and come.

Remember she is all i have and i realy want a condusive and a pleasant atmostphere for her.

With Warm Regards.

mrs shalot

There was no way I was going to tutor a weird dude’s son, but a hot model’s 18-year-old daughter? Now we’re talking! And all I have to do is send this woman my bank account number, my credit card info and my social security number. Sweet deal!

I promise, this is the last e-mail-related lead I’ll post until next week, unless Issey Miyake Jnr. contacts me in the next 24 hours, of course. For some reason, I doubt that’ll happen.

NEW YORK OFFENSE: I really blew the Jets-Patriots pick last week because my premise was wrong. I thought Brett Favre would try to do too much in a big game and consequently throw up a ton of punt-like passes for interceptions.

Favre was incredibly sharp at New England, going 26-of-33 for 258 yards and two touchdowns. However, I’m not convinced that Favre won’t have one of his patented meltdown games sometime soon. He choked twice last year – once at Dallas and again in the NFC Championship.

But even if Favre doesn’t commit countless errors, moving the chains will prove to be really difficult against the Titans. Unlike New England, Tennessee will put the clamps on Thomas Jones, forcing Favre to beat their No. 3 ranked secondary on his own. If Favre is backed into countless long-yardage situations, the mistake-prone version of the veteran quarterback could emerge.

TENNESSEE OFFENSE: While Tennessee excels against the run, the Jets are even better at it, ranking first in the NFL, thanks to Kris Jenkins. Unlike the Bears and Jaguars, New York won’t have to consistently keep eight men in the box to limit Chris Johnson and LenDale White.

However, that’s not as significant anymore; after failing to throw for more than 200 yards all season, Kerry Collins has a pair of 200-yard performances the past two weeks, proving that he can do more than just manage games.

Matt Cassel torched the Jets’ secondary last Thursday. Collins’ success will continue versus a defensive backfield ranked 22nd against the pass.

RECAP: Even though the Titans are 10-0 and are a lock to make the playoffs, barring the most bizarre meltdown of all time, I feel as though this game means more to them than it does to the Jets.

Tennessee is playing for respect. No one seems to believe in them; on every NFL pre-game show, all everyone says is, “Oh, the Titans are going to lose, of course.” With a convincing win here, Tennessee can begin to prove that it belongs up there with the 2007 Patriots.

As for the Jets, they just had a grueling, overtime road win at arch rival New England. Matching the same intensity again could prove to be difficult for them.

I’m taking the Titans. In addition to the reasons I mentioned above, it feels good to go against a publicly backed underdog on a Sunday where Vegas needs to rebound after two consecutive losing weeks.

The Psychology. Edge: Titans.

Though the Titans have the better record, I think this is a bigger game for them. They can prove to everyone how good they are by beating a 7-3 squad. The Jets, meanwhile, just had an emotional victory on the road in overtime.

The Vegas. Edge: Jets.
People apparently aren’t believers in the Titans.

Percentage of money on New York: 61% (163,000 bets)

The Trends. Edge: None.

Opening Line: Titans -5.

Opening Total: 40.

Weather: Sunny, 55 degrees. Light wind.

Week 12 NFL Pick: Titans 30, Jets 20
Titans -5.5 (2 Units) — Incorrect; -$220
Over 40.5 (1 Unit) — Correct; +$100
Jets 34, Titans 13

Chicago Bears (5-5) at St. Louis Rams (2-8)
Line: Bears by 7.5. Total: 44.
Walt’s Projected Line (Before Week 11): Bears -7.5.
Walt’s Projected Line (After Week 11): Bears -7.
Sunday, 1:00 ET – Buy Tickets

The Game. Edge: Bears.

Injuries: Bears: OUT: OT Fred Miller (IR), CB Zackary Bowman (IR), S Brandon McGowan (IR). Rams: OUT: RB Steven Jackson*, FB Brian Leonard (IR), WR Drew Bennett (IR), TE Randy McMichael (IR), OT Orlando Pace*, OT Brandon Gorin (IR), G Mark Setterstrom (IR), CB Justin King (IR), CB Ricky Manning Jr., KR Dante Hall (IR).

College Football Notes:

1. I really don’t get college football. Wisconsin beat Minnesota on Saturday to claim Paul Bunyan’s Axe. Their opponent, the Golden Gophers, were 7-3 coming into the contest, but recently went down to eight-loss Michigan. However, this didn’t stop the crowd from going wild, even though their mediocre and disappointing Badgers improved to just 6-5. Meanwhile, the ESPN announcer exclaimed, “Everyone wants a piece of that ax!”

Great job, losers. Your season is an epic failure. The best bowl (or winter practice game) you can get into is the Prima Tech Paper Bowl. You have no shot at the national title. But as a consolation prize, you get to carry around an ax made out of plastic! Awesome!

2. Wisconsin football sucks right now, and so does Steve Spurrier. I’ve never seen a more overrated head coach in my entire life. Seriously, 56-6? Spurrier recruits well, but he calls dumb trick plays on kick returns, while his short-leash quarterbacking tactics don’t work anymore. He instills no confidence in his passers because they are so worried that a single mistake will lead to their benching. Successful coaches stick with their guys. Spurrier rides the hot hand and throws that guy aside as soon as he cools off.

3. I really think sports commentators should talk about the Vegas spread more. Case in point: Iowa State, down 52-20, was driving down the field against Missouri for a potential cover. One of the receivers made a diving catch near Missouri’s 25, which was ruled incomplete. When the booth called for a replay, one of the announcers on FCS Atlantic chuckled, “This doesn’t matter in terms of the outcome.” Wrong, idiot. The only people watching the ending of this sorry blowout were either relatives of the players or degenerate gamblers like myself who had action on either side. I really don’t understand why announcers can’t talk about the spread. Without degenerate bettors, all the TV networks wouldn’t make nearly as much money.

Speaking of college football, I wrote that the Rams are a Big XII team that got lost and found itself in the NFC West in my Week 11 NFL Review. Meanwhile, Dennis Field, my former college roommate and current operator of the picking widget on the home page of my NFL Picks, suggested that I apply all bye week trends to teams playing the sorry Rams. Not a bad idea.

ST. LOUIS OFFENSE: If the Rams didn’t suck enough, they now won’t have Orlando Pace for 2-4 weeks. Steven Jackson is also out again. As indicated in the Trends section, St. Louis is worthless without Jackson. One can only imagine what that record is without Jackson and Pace.

Chicago’s defense, laden with proud veterans who will be looking to redeem themselves an embarrassing loss, will stop Antonio Pittman and Kenneth Darby in their tracks. Despite last week’s performance by Ryan Grant, the Bears are sixth versus the rush.

Without an effective ground attack, the woeful Marc Bulger will continue to struggle. The Bears surprisingly have just 17 sacks, but St. Louis’ offensive line is so terrible that Chicago will get pressure on Bulger regardless. The 49ers had 14 sacks on the year going into last week and managed to sack Bulger four times.

CHICAGO OFFENSE: While Chicago’s defense figures to rebound off a pathetic performance, Kyle Orton will also bounce back from last week’s outing. Orton shouldn’t have played against the Packers, but with another week of practice and rehabilitation, Orton could be close to 100 percent.

Of course, it doesn’t matter because all the Bears will need to do is run the ball against the Rams’ 30th-ranked rush defense. Matt Forte will have a huge game, giving Orton easy looks downfield. St. Louis is dead last versus the pass.

RECAP: Laying 8.5 on the road isn’t something I’d encourage most of the time, but this is an exception. That’s because taking the Rams without Jackson and Pace is an even worse proposition.

Thanks to Jackson being out of the lineup, St. Louis has lost its previous three games by an average score of 39-11.

The Psychology. Edge: None.
No psychological edge found yet.

The Vegas. Edge: Rams.

Action on the Bears on Sunday morning after a week of 50-50 action.

Percentage of money on Chicago: 69% (89,000 bets)

The Trends. Edge: Bears.

Road Warrior: Coaches are 122-81 ATS on the road following a road loss since 1996 (Lovie Smith 2-0).

Bears are 13-7 ATS after losing to the Packers since 1992.

Bears are 17-8 ATS in November since 2001.

Bears are 4-8 ATS as a favorite since 2007.

Rams are 2-7 ATS when Steven Jackson is out or limited since 2007.

Opening Line: Bears -9.

Opening Total: 43.

Weather: Dome.

Week 12 NFL Pick: Bears 27, Rams 3
Bears -7.5 (3 Units) — Correct; +$300
Under 44 (1 Unit) — Correct; +$100
Bears 27, Rams 3

Philadelphia Eagles (5-4-1) at Baltimore Ravens (6-4)
Line: Ravens by 1.5. Total: 39.5.
Walt’s Projected Line (Before Week 11): Ravens -1.5.
Walt’s Projected Line (After Week 11): Ravens -1.
Sunday, 1:00 ET – Buy Tickets

The Game. Edge: Eagles.

Injuries: Eagles: OUT: G Shawn Andrews, CB Jack Ikegwuonu (IR). DOUBTFUL: RB Brian Westbrook*. Ravens: OUT: QB Kyle Boller (IR), WR Demetrius Williams (IR), TE Quinn “Miracle Man” Sypniewski (IR), OT Jared Gaither*, OT Marshal Yanda (IR), OT Adam Terry, DT Kelly Gregg (IR), DT Dwan Edwards (IR), ILB Tavares Gooden (IR), ILB Prescott Burgess (IR), CB Chris McAlister (IR), S Dawan Landry (IR).

I’d like to petition that we rename the Philadelphia Eagles. I have three suggestions. 1) Team Dumb***. 2) Team Ugly Tie. 3) The Fat Man and the Ignorant 53.

If you missed it, check out the Bottom 10 of my NFL Power Rankings, where I discuss how stupid this team is, and list the five dumbest Eagles.

I just can’t get over it. How can professional football players not know about ties? I knew about the tie rule when I was 10 years old. I’d argue anyone that age is aware that NFL games can end in ties, unless the kid in question is more into creating robots, wearing suspenders and eating boogers. I’d nominate Michael Jackson to poll 100 10-year-olds about ties, but that couldn’t possibly end well.

PHILADELPHIA OFFENSE: In the wake of Tie Gate, everyone in Philadelphia wants Andy Reid and Donovan McNabb banished from the city. Eagles fans actually want their team to lose so owner Jeff Lurie fires Reid and trades McNabb.

That’s a great plan, and it would work if the Eagles lose out and miss the Doggone Playoff. But that’s not going to happen. Under Reid, the team always bounces back after being criticized by the media and the fans. I have no explanation for this; it just always happens.

Assuming McNabb doesn’t play like a crack addict again, he should be able to light up Baltimore’s banged-up secondary. Sure, Eli Manning threw for just 153 yards against the Ravens last week, but he came up huge when it mattered. Thanks to some clutch passing, the Giants were 5-of-12 on third downs. And besides, New York didn’t really need Manning to do anything because Earth, Wind and Fire were tearing Baltimore’s defensive front apart.

Brian Westbrook won’t be able to do that – Reid believes in calling pass plays on every down – but Westbrook will be another weapon out of the backfield that Baltimore will need to worry about.

BALTIMORE OFFENSE: Joe Flacco played error-free football since getting debacled at Indianapolis – he had no interceptions and one fumble since Oct. 12 prior to Sunday’s game – so on paper, it was disappointing to see Flacco’s line of 20-of-33, 164 yards, one touchdown and two picks. However, one of the interceptions was caused by a bobbled catch by Derrick Mason that landed in the hands of Giants corner Aaron Ross. Definitely not Flacco’s fault.

That said, playing pristine football is going to be a challenge for the rookie in this contest. The Eagles have one of the best pass rushes in the NFL, and if anyone can rattle Flacco, it’s defensive coordinator Jim Johnson.

Flacco will have to carry the offense on his shoulders because like last week, the running game will be nullified. The Giants are just a bit better against the rush than the Eagles are, and the former held Willis McGahee and Ray Rice to 35 combined rushing yards on 17 carries.

RECAP: One of the toughest calls of the week.

On one hand, I want to take the Eagles. They have a habit of bouncing back from public and journalistic scrutiny. Reid’s strength as a coach is rallying his team when the chips are down.

On the other hand, I want to take the Ravens. John Harbaugh coached the Eagles for 10 years. He knows all of their strengths and weaknesses, and should be able to devise a perfect game plan against them. Also, if this game is close, the Eagles will choke. Reid’s weakness as a coach is his indecisiveness when everything is on the line.

I wouldn’t bet this game. If you’re looking for a strong opinion, ask someone else. Just make sure that someone isn’t an angry Eagles fan.

PICK CHANGE: Brian Westbrook is doubtful. Even if he plays, he’ll be limited. I don’t think the Eagles can win without their best player.

The Psychology. Edge: Ravens.

Both teams are coming off disgraceful performances.

John Harbaugh coached the Eagles from 1998 to 2007.

The Vegas. Edge: Eagles.

Team Ugly Tie isn’t getting any support from bettors. Now there’s a surprise.

Percentage of money on Baltimore: 67% (115,000 bets)

The Trends. Edge: Eagles.

Boomerang Game: Teams returning home from a three-game road trip are 9-16 ATS since 2000.

Eagles are 10-16 ATS vs. AFC opponents since 2001.

Donovan McNabb is 32-18 ATS on the road since 2001.

Opening Line: Ravens -1.

Opening Total: 39.

Weather: Partly cloudy, 43 degrees. Light wind.

Week 12 NFL Pick: Ravens 26, Eagles 17
Ravens -1.5 (1 Unit) — Correct; +$100
Over 39.5 (.5 Units) — Correct; +$50
Ravens 36, Eagles 7

Houston Texans (3-7) at Cleveland Browns (4-6)
Line: Browns by 3. Total: 50.
Walt’s Projected Line (Before Week 11): Browns -4.5.
Walt’s Projected Line (After Week 11): Browns -4.5.
Sunday, 1:00 ET – Buy Tickets

The Game. Edge: None.
Injuries: Texans: OUT: RB Chris Brown (IR), RB Chris Taylor (IR), G Fred Weary (IR), OLB Zach Diles (IR), CB Jimmy Williams (IR), S C.C. Brown, KR Andre Davis. Browns: OUT: WR Joe Jurevicius (IR), OT Ryan Tucker (IR), G Lennie Friedman, DE Robaire Smith (IR), OLB Antwan Peek (IR).

More college football notes:

4. Shady Big Ten officials are at it again! Anyone who saw the Michigan-Northwestern game knows what I’m talking about. The official overturned a Michigan pick-six, claiming that Donovan Warren stepped out of bounds after watching the replay. However, the replay clearly showed that he wasn’t even close to stepping out. Apparently, the refs had Northwestern on the moneyline. For anyone new to this, Big Ten officials are the most crooked refs in any sport, on any level – even worse than the guy who overturned that Steelers touchdown.

5. The YouTube Video of the Week: Speaking of Big Ten officials, Dave Witvoet is the biggest crook of them all, so it was funny watching him screw up.

6. Mississippi State must be the most boring team to watch of all time. I haven’t fallen asleep during a football game in a while, yet I managed to pass out watching Mississippi State-Alabama when the latter was up 22-7. The NCAA really needs to step in and do something about this – maybe force some talented offensive recruits to come to Mississippi State. I can’t take much more of this offense.

You have to wonder if this is going to be the least bet game of the week. In one corner, we have the Human Turnover, Sage Rosenchoker. In the other corner, a team that manages to screw up in as many ways as humanly possible. What a thrilling matchup.

HOUSTON OFFENSE: While Sage Rosenchoker is known for debacling his team each week, he typically begins self-destructing in the final quarter. Until then, he’s not that bad. He led the Texans to multiple scoring drives against the Colts. He completed all but five passes (13-of-18) and maintained a YPA greater than 10. Not bad, though it should be noted that Rosenchoker benefited from Steve Slaton rushing for 156 yards on just 14 carries.

With that in mind, Slaton could actually do that again. Marshawn Lynch, who had struggled all year, eclipsed the 100-yard barrier for the first time all season on Monday night. Cleveland can’t stop the run, so Rosenchoker will have the same luxury he had at Indianapolis.

Meanwhile, it’s no secret that Cleveland can’t stop the pass. The secondary is void of talent and the pass rush is a joke. Trent Edwards had all day to throw. Look for huge outings from Andre Johnson and Kevin Walter.

CLEVELAND OFFENSE: Brady Quinn was 14-of-36 for 185 yards in the Buffalo game, but he was victimized by numerous drops. I thought Quinn actually played pretty well considering he was making his first road start.

However, there’s no reason to think those drops will discontinue. Braylon Edwards can’t catch a cold right now, and I don’t know what’s going on with Kellen Winslow Jr. – he conveniently disappeared after ruining a potential victory against the Broncos two weeks ago.

The Browns could turn to their ground attack because Houston is just 22nd versus the rush. Unfortunately, Jamal Lewis looks like he’s running in mud. His 19-carry, 60-yard performance against a beleaguered Broncos stop unit showed just how done he is.

RECAP: Cleveland is 0-2 straight up and against the spread as favorites this year. Crappy teams generally don’t deserve to be laying points, and that’s the case here.

But despite what I just wrote, I thought this line would be higher. The Browns are coming off a win on Monday night, while the Texans have lost three in a row without Matt Schaub. I was expecting a spread of around 4.5 or so. With a small line of -3, the public is pounding the host. Let’s hope the Cleveland favorite trend continues, because I’m siding with Houston.

The Psychology. Edge: None.
No psychological edge found.

The Vegas. Edge: Texans.

This line seems low after Cleveland’s upset on Monday night. I’m not surprised to see bettors backing the host.

Percentage of money on Cleveland: 73% (97,000 bets)

The Trends. Edge: Texans.

Road Warrior: Coaches are 122-81 ATS on the road following a road loss since 1996 (Gary Kubiak 5-1).

Texans are 26-12 ATS after two or more consecutive losses.

Opening Line: Browns -3.

Opening Total: 49.5.

Weather: Cloudy, 40 degrees. Mild wind, 13 mph.

Week 12 NFL Pick: Texans 34, Browns 31
Texans +3 (2 Units) — Correct; +$200
Over 50 (1 Unit) — Incorrect; -$110
Texans 16, Browns 6

San Francisco 49ers (3-7) at Dallas Cowboys (6-4)
Line: Cowboys by 9.5. Total: 45.5.
Walt’s Projected Line (Before Week 11): Cowboys -10.5.
Walt’s Projected Line (After Week 11): Cowboys -10.
Sunday, 1:00 ET – Buy Tickets

The Game. Edge: Cowboys.

Injuries: 49ers: OUT: QB Alex Smith (IR), FB Zak Keasey (IR), OLB Jay Moore (IR), CB Shawntae Spencer (IR). Cowboys: OUT: RB Felix Jones*, WR Sam Hurd (IR), G Kyle Kosier, CB Pacman Jones (SUSP), S Roy Williams (IR), P Mat McBriar (IR).

Anyone who watched the Redskins-Cowboys game on Sunday night may have noticed that NBC’s logo was green to promote Green Week – an effort to make us all aware that we suck at life because we pollute our planet way too much.

I want in on the action. I’m tired of being a scum bag and intentionally leaving all the lights on in my house. So, to help out, I’m going to recycle some content I wrote last year for Green Week:

I’m sure all of you were annoyed by NBC’s Green Awareness, where they turned off the lights in their studios and changed the color of their logo to green to promote power conservation. Well, that actually motivated me. Upon seeing that, I decided to unplug my fridge. The next day, I ate spoiled food, and consequently had to get my stomach pumped at a hospital a few hours later. Not only was my life expectancy cut in half, my hospital bill will force me to take out a third mortgage on my house. But hey, at least I saved enough energy to power some house in Iowa!

Ah, that was nice. I just saved some energy. My own energy, but energy nonetheless.

Speaking of energy, the Cowboys seemed pretty electrified on Sunday night, as if they had some spark. It can’t be because Tony Romo’s return forced 80-year-old Brad Johnson and Brooks “I Can Throw Interceptions Too!” Bollinger to the bench? Nah…

DALLAS OFFENSE: With Romo back at the helm, Dallas is definitely a threat to represent the NFC in the Super Bowl. Remember, they’re 5-2 with Carrie Underwood’s ex-boyfriend, as their losses came against 6-4 Washington and 7-3 Arizona.

Romo’s ability to go downfield definitely helps against the 49ers. Recall how Kurt Warner torched San Francisco’s mediocre secondary (16th versus the pass) two Mondays ago. Romo should be able to come close to somewhat duplicating Warner’s performance, as Terrell Owens, Jason Witten, Roy Williams and Marion Barber pose too many matchup problems.

As for Barber, he won’t have as much success running the ball as he did at Washington. While the Redskins are 16th versus the rush, the 49ers are ninth.

SAN FRANCISCO OFFENSE: The 49ers are playing much better with Shaun Hill under center. Unlike J.T. O’Sullivan, Hill isn’t taking sacks. He’s not fumbling the ball away, and he’s not tossing careless interceptions. What a concept.

Dallas’ defense was exposed during Romo’s vacancy, and I expect that to continue on Sunday. Frank Gore will trample the Cowboys’ 23rd-ranked rush defense, giving Hill some play-action opportunities. Dallas’ secondary isn’t exactly the most imposing unit in the NFL, even with Terence Newman back in the mix.

RECAP: Though I expect betting action to shift closer to 50 percent toward the end of the week, the fact that the public likes San Francisco is keeping me from placing five units on the visitor.

However, I still like the 49ers a lot. Double-digit favorites are 1-12 against the spread this season. And as a favorite of a touchdown or more in his career, Romo is 3-10 against the number, excluding Thanksgiving Day games.

The reasoning behind this? Romo and the Cowboys are a conceited group and tend to be overconfident against inferior competition. How focused could they possibly be after knocking off arch rival Washington on the road?

If betting becomes closer to 50-50, I’ll put more units on San Francisco.

The Psychology. Edge: 49ers.

Mike Singletary has the 49ers playing hard, and I don’t think the Cowboys take “inferior” opponents seriously.

The Vegas. Edge: None.
How about that… the public is not backing the Cowboys for a change!

Percentage of money on San Francisco: 54% (173,000 bets)

The Trends. Edge: 49ers.

Tony Romo is 16-8 ATS as a starter before Dec. 1.

Tony Romo is 5-10 ATS as a favorite of -7 or more (3-10 excluding Thanksgiving).

Opening Line: Cowboys -11.

Opening Total: 48.

Weather: Possible showers, 67 degrees. Mild wind, 11 mph.

Week 12 NFL Pick: Cowboys 31, 49ers 24
49ers +9.5 (3 Units) — Incorrect; -$330
Over 45.5 (1 Unit) — Correct; +$100
Cowboys 35, 49ers 22

Week 12 NFL Picks – Late Games
Raiders at Broncos, Panthers at Falcons, Giants at Cardinals, Redskins at Seahawks, Colts at Chargers, Packers at Saints

Prop/Teaser/Parlay Picks
A list of some of my favorite team/player prop picks this week
(Offense & defensive ROY picks to be counted whenver winners are announced.) Picks carried over on a week-to-week basis will be in black.

Prop/teaser/parlay picks posted in Week 12 NFL Picks – Late Games

2009 NFL Mock Draft

2010 NFL Mock Draft

2009 NFL Mock Draft Database

College Football Picks

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Note: For legality purposes, this Web site does not promote or advocate gambling. This is solely for entertainment purposes only.

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1999 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 27-41-3 (39.7%)
2000 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 128-123-8 (51.0%)
2001 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 127-122-7 (51.0%)
2002 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 123-136-7 (47.5%)
2003 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 146-126-8 (53.7%)
2004 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 157-123-8 (56.1%)
2005 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 156-126-11 (55.3%)
2006 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 151-135-9 (52.8%)
2007 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 162-135-10, 54.5% (+$3,585)
2008 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 148-140-7, 51.4% (+$6,105)
2009 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 151-124-9, 54.9% (+$4,235)
2010 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 144-131-8, 52.4% (+$5,880)
2011 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 137-133-12, 50.7% (-$1,335)
2012 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 130-145-8, 47.3% (-$7,445)
2013 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 144-131-8, 52.4% (+$7,825)
2014 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 143-133-7, 51.8% (-$1,885)
2015 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 134-138-12, 49.3% (-$3,215)
2016 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 148-127-10, 53.8% (+$780)
2017 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 137-140-8, 49.5% (-$4,300)
2018 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 140-134-14, 51.3% (+$845)
2019 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 149-128-9, 53.6% (+$1,200)
2020 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 138-124-7, 52.7% (+$9,350)
2021 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 153-141-2, 51.9% (+$210)
2022 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 154-134-8, 53.5% (+$9,860)

2002 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 41-49-2 (45.6%)
2003 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 52-51-2 (50.5%)
2004 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 65-44-3 (59.6%)
2005 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 77-61-1 (55.8%)
2006 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 65-61-4 (51.6%)
2007 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 83-59-5, 58.5% (+$4,110)
2008 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 44-57-3, 43.6% (-$3,510)
2009 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 49-35-3, 58.3% (+$2,260)
2010 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 51-38-4, 57.3% (+$3,180)
2011 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 44-51-3, 46.3% (-$2,715)
2012 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 45-50-2, 47.4% (-$2,130)
2013 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 38-42, 47.5% (-$2,890)
2015 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 47-44-1, 51.6% (-$820)
2016 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 42-35-3, 54.5% (+$475)
2017 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 32-40-3, 43.8% (-$2,395)
2018 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 52-41-2, 55.9% (+$2,670)
2019 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 44-36-2, 55.0% (+$655)
2020 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 47-43-3, 52.2% (-$1,965)
2021 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 50-50, 50.0% (-$1,570)
2022 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 56-44-2, 56.0% (+$1,860)

2002 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 11-12 (47.8%)
2003 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 16-13-1 (55.2%)
2004 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 18-11 (62.1%)
2005 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 25-22-1 (53.2%)
2006 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 21-29-1 (42.0%)
2007 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 35-30-2, 53.8% (+$420)
2008 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 39-26-2, 60.0% (+$4,055)
2009 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 29-26, 52.7% (+$330)
2010 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 32-22, 59.3% (+$4,790)
2011 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 14-14, 50.0% (-$1,260)
2012 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 14-21, 40.0% (-$3,650)
2013 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 17-9-3, 65.4% (+$2,970)
2015 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 17-16-2, 51.5% (-$1,120)
2016 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 21-22-5, 48.8% (-$1,465)
2017 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 20-22-1, 47.6% (-$1,595)
2018 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 27-32-1, 45.8% (-$4,735)
2019 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 37-27-2, 57.8% (+$2,185)
2020 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 37-22-1, 62.7% (+$5,515)
2021 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 32-32-1, 50.0% (-$725)
2022 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 41-30-1, 57.8% (+$3,725)

2001 Season Over-Under: 3-2 (60.0%)
2002 Season Over-Under: 121-91-3 (57.1%)
2003 Season Over-Under: 126-132-2 (48.8%)
2004 Season Over-Under: 139-124-4 (52.9%)
2005 Season Over-Under: 117-145-4 (44.7%)
2006 Season Over-Under: 129-132-5 (49.4%)
2007 Season Over-Under: 136-145-3, 48.4% (-$1,900)
2008 Season Over-Under: 137-125-6, 52.3% (+$860)
2009 Season Over-Under: 128-135-4, 48.7% (-$3,195)
2010 Season Over-Under: 128-135-5, 48.7% (-$5)
2011 Season Over-Under: 131-131-5, 50.0% (+$135)
2012 Season Over-Under: 125-121-5, 50.8% (+$30)
2013 Season Over-Under: 132-130-5, 50.4% (-$340)
2015 Season Over-Under: 143-119-5, 54.6% ($0)
2016 Season Over-Under: 123-141-1, 46.6% (+$95)
2017 Season Over-Under: 136-139-2, 49.5% (+$640)
2018 Season Over-Under: 118-128-3, 48.0% (-$225)
2019 Season Over-Under: 126-133-4, 48.6% (-$50)
2020 Season Over-Under: 141-122-6, 53.6% ($0)
2021 Season Over-Under: 132-151-3, 46.6% ($0)
2022 Season Over-Under: 133-149-2, 47.2% (-$225)

2007 Season Prop/ML/Teaser/Parlay Picks: +$1,035
2008 Season Prop/ML/Teaser/Parlay Picks: +$1,775
2009 Season Prop/ML/Teaser/Parlay Picks: +$865
2010 Season Prop/ML/Teaser/Parlay Picks: -$200
2011 Season Prop/ML/Teaser/Parlay Picks: +$590
2012 Season Prop/ML/Teaser/Parlay Picks: -$1,685
2013 Season Prop/ML/Teaser/Parlay Picks: +$2,245
2015 Season Prop/ML/Teaser/Parlay Picks: -$855
2016 Season Prop/ML/Teaser/Parlay Picks: -$275
2017 Season Prop/ML/Teaser/Parlay Picks: -$510
2018 Season Prop/ML/Teaser/Parlay Picks: +$1,495
2019 Season Prop/ML/Teaser/Parlay Picks: -$1,715
2020 Season Prop/ML/Teaser/Parlay Picks: +$4,975
2021 Season Prop/ML/Teaser/Parlay Picks: +$3,455
2022 Season Prop/ML/Teaser/Parlay Picks: +$5,720

2006 NFL Picks of the Month: 3-3 (50%)
2007 NFL Picks of the Month: 3-3, 50.0% (-$400)
2008 NFL Picks of the Month: 6-1, 85.7% (+$3,720)
2009 NFL Picks of the Month: 3-2, 60.0% (+$640)
2010 NFL Picks of the Month: 2-4, 33.3% (-$1,810)
2011 NFL Picks of the Month: 5-2, 71.4% (+$1,870)
2012 NFL Picks of the Month: 3-2, 60.0% (+$560)
2013 NFL Picks of the Month: 6-0, 100% (+$3,900)
2014 NFL Picks of the Month: 2-4, 33.3% (-$1,350)
2015 NFL Picks of the Month: 3-3, 50.0% (-$100)
2016 NFL Picks of the Month: 5-1, 83.3% (+$2,780)
2017 NFL Picks of the Month: 4-2, 66.7% (+$1,040)
2018 NFL Picks of the Month: 4-3, 57.1% (-$640)
2019 NFL Picks of the Month: 3-3-1, 50.0% (-$625)
2020 NFL Picks of the Month: 3-2, 60.0% (+$665)
2021 NFL Picks of the Month: 2-3, 40.0% (-$920)
2022 NFL Picks of the Month: 3-4, 42.9% (-$1,615)

Career NFL Picks Against The Spread: 3,420-3,152-195, 52.1% (+$21,170)
Career 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 1,106-983-56 (52.9%)
Career 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 549-485-25 (53.1%)
Career Over-Under: 2,853-2,829-74 (50.3%)
Career Second-Half NFL Picks: 23-16-1 (59.0%)
Career NFL Picks of the Month: 46-34-1 (57.5t%)

My Team-by-Team ATS Record
This section shows how well I do when picking each team this year. The purpose is to see how well I read each team. Pushes are not displayed. Winning/losing streak in parentheses.

Cowboys: 8-9	Bears: 11-4	Bucs: 6-11	49ers: 10-7
Eagles: 7-7	Lions: 9-8	Falcons: 8-9	Cardinals: 8-9
Giants: 7-9	Packers: 5-12	Panthers: 8-9	Rams: 8-9
Redskins: 14-3	Vikings: 6-9	Saints: 10-7	Seahawks: 7-9

Bills: 9-7	Bengals: 12-5	Colts: 7-10	Broncos: 9-6
Dolphins: 6-11	Browns: 11-5	Jaguars: 13-4	Chargers: 8-9
Jets: 8-9	Ravens: 11-6	Texans: 5-12	Chiefs: 5-10
Patriots: 7-9	Steelers: 11-6	Titans: 9-8	Raiders: 6-9

Divisional: 50-35 (2011-22: 558-526)	2x Game Edge: 36-24 (2011-22: 363-361)	2x Motivation Edge: 32-36 (2011-22: 478-405)	2x Spread Edge: 41-40 (2011-22: 197-168)
2x Vegas Edge: 41-38 (2011-22: 407-406)	2x Trend Edge: 15-13 (2011-22: 306-279)	Double Edge: 17-13 (2011-22: 190-172)	Triple Edge: 1-1 (2011-22: 32-36)

2024 NFL Draft Goals

2024 NFL Draft Potential Busts

NFL Free Agent Signing Grades – Latest Signing Grades for 2024 NFL Free Agency

2024 NFL Mock Draft

2024 NFL Draft Day 3 Sleepers

2024 Final

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