@j0sh1ngU = this pitcher beat chicago in chicago last year 6-0, Arrieta has not been as good this year and has a 4.11 post season ERA, so I to like CLE+124 might get higher60% and climbing on the cubs, so I am waiting, I like the under, 80% tickets on the over, cubs 5over 14 under in interleage play cleveland 1 over 8 unders in the playoffs. right now I can get +110 but 80% on the over so I will wait!
@ND10 =NICE, I love trends and angles, I also love stats, I LOVE when you can combine them into a play, I do believe I will be on those three, all ready liked NO big and was thinking CAR, and wondering Y Walter has not put $$ on NE ( SQUARES)?
This is Matt McGuire's NFL Draft blog, where he'll talk about the NFL Draft, anything that has to do with football and whatever else is on his mind. Send Matt an e-mail here: [email protected].
All other e-mail, including advertising and link proposals, send to: [email protected]
Posted Jan. 28, 2009
The Mock Draft Myth
There is a common misunderstanding with the theory on how to make a mock draft.
A) Predict what SHOULD happen, or
B) Predict what WILL happen.
I have to say, I think this is a completely ridiculous argument.
Statement A implies you are predicting what you think the teams will do in the sense you are playing "GM" if you will.
Statement B implies you are predicting what you think the teams will do in the sense you move your opinion to the side and eliminate the subjectivity of the mock draft picks.
This does not make any sense whatsoever. The bottom line is, every mock is subjective. We are predicting not only what we think will happen, but also what we think the teams will do.
We are human. Therefore, it is impossible to not have bias. Every mock draft has bias. It is impossible to escape. We develop opinions on these players and these teams. We develop opinions on how the draft will play out.
For example, last year I thought the Dolphins were going to take Chris Long No. 1. I could back up my case why Parcells would do this (coached with Al Groh, always built his team around defense, etc.) I also said Darren McFadden would be a Raider from the day he declared for the 2008 NFL Draft. I would not touch McFadden in the top five picks ever, but I still thought the Raiders would take him.
All I am saying is this is a ridiculous argument. We all have our bias, and quite frankly I do not think there is anything wrong with it. We should accept this because we are humans and not robots.
NoNonsenseCoach on the WF.com forums said, "Mock drafts are projecting where players are going to go.... not where they should go."
As much as you want it to be "where players are going to go" we are very inaccurate with this anyway because it is extremely hard to do. We have our biases, and cannot escape them. Nothing about putting together a mock draft is objective.
This is an argument created by draftniks to act like they are better than other people who make mock drafts. It is a complete myth.