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Free Baseball Picks:
2008: April - May - June -
2007: April - May - June - July - August - Sept/Oct -

Last Week's Winnings (June 23-29, 2008): 7-9 (-$960)

2006 Season Winnings: -$655 (+$2,640 since Aug. 19)
2007 Season Winnings: -$5,840
2008 Season Winnings (as of June 29): -$3,995

Career Winnings (as of June 29): -$10,440
Thursday, May 31, 2007 (1-3, -$5)



Florida Marlins (26-27) at Milwaukee Brewers (29-24).
Line: Marlins +145; Brewers -160.

Congrats to anyone who had my 3-Unit Arizona pick. Too bad we couldn't get the Colorado game as well. I have to mention something I saw in that contest. Down 8-2 in the fifth, the Rockies had a man on first with no outs. One of the team's power hitters - I can't remember who it was - bunted him over to second. I was appalled. Bunting down six? That's like kicking field goals down 35 instead of going for touchdowns.

Whatever. I think there's tons of value with Florida here. The Marlins are hot, while the Brewers can't seem to do anything right. Luckily for them, the entire NL Central's a disgrace.

  • Wes Obermueller (R) is 0-2; 3.37 ERA; 1.22 WHIP; -2.3 Units on the road.
  • Claudio Vargas (R) is 2-0; 2.86 ERA; 1.46 WHIP; +4 Units at home.

    Prediction: Marlins +145.
    1 Unit.
    Incorrect; -$100




    St. Louis Cardinals (21-29) at Colorado Rockies (25-28).
    Line: Cardinals +150; Rockies -1.5 +130.

    Even the worst teams in the league win sometimes, right? Let's take three out of four in this series. And if the Rockies are down, maybe they'll actually, I don't know, swing for the fences.

  • Brad Thompson (R) is 1-1; 5.83 ERA; 1.22 WHIP; +0.3 Units on the road.
  • Aaron Cook (R) is 2-1; 5.70 ERA; 1.57 WHIP; +1 Units at home.

    Prediction: Rockies -1.5 +130.
    2 Units.
    Incorrect; -$200




    Texas Rangers (19-34) at Seattle Mariners (25-24).
    Line: Rangers +150; Mariners -1.5 +135.

    The Rangers are a disgrace, especially on the road, where they are 8-19. Check out Vicente Padilla's numbers when he's away from Arlington. He must be too busy finding a place to eat before and after the game to concentrate on his opponents.

    I know I just had my first 3-Unit play yesterday, but I couldn't resist with another one. I love the Mariners in this spot.

  • Vicente Padilla (R) is 0-4; 7.59 ERA; 1.94 WHIP; -6.4 Units on the road.
  • Cha Seung Baek (R) is 0-1; 2.84 ERA; 1.03 WHIP; 0 Units at home.

    Prediction: Mariners -1.5 +135.
    3 Units.
    Correct; +$415




    Baltimore Orioles (26-27) at Los Angeles Angels (33-21).
    Line: Orioles +190; Angels -2.5 +160.

    Brian Burres has had three consecutive quality starts, but that has to be a fluke. Just look at his WHIP. He's gotten very lucky. Baltimore will probably start losing now that it's playing a real team on the road (as opposed to Kansas City). Kelvin Escobar's unhittable at home, and the Angels are 7-2 as hosts against the Orioles the past three seasons.

  • Brian Burres (L) is 1-1; 3.60 ERA; 2.00 WHIP; +0.6 Units on the road.
  • Kelvim Escobar (R) is 4-1; 1.76 ERA; 1.08 WHIP; +3.5 Units at home.

    Prediction: Angels -2.5 +160.
    1 Unit.
    Incorrect; -$100


    $20 Shield Bet to win $145
    (Parlay all picks against yourself just in case of a disastrous day)
    Incorrect; -$20


    Buy Baseball Tickets For Any Game at TicketCity.com!
    Wednesday, May 30, 2007 (3-3, +$130)



    Atlanta Braves (29-23) at Milwaukee Brewers (29-23).
    Line: Braves -1.5 +130; Brewers +115.

    I won yesterday, but I'm still going to complain. How much does it suck that John Smoltz got hurt? If he kept playing, I have a feeling Atlanta would have won last night. Let's hope Tim Hudson doesn't share the same fate. Definitely like him over Dave Bush though. Milwaukee is 3-7 with Bush on the mound. All seven losses have been by at least two runs.

  • Tim Hudson (R) is 2-1; 2.86 ERA; 1.04 WHIP; +0.8 Units on the road.
  • Dave Bush (R) is 2-3; 5.40 ERA; 1.14 WHIP; -1.9 Units at home.

    Prediction: Braves -1.5 +130.
    .5 Units.
    Correct; +$65




    Texas Rangers (19-33) at Oakland Athletics (25-26).
    Line: Rangers +190; Athletics -220.

    Just a small play here, but I like Texas. This is a road-dominated series; the Rangers are 12-9 (+6.4 Units) at Oakland the past three seasons. Lots of value with the visitor.

  • John Koronka (R) is 0-1; 5.40 ERA; 1.80 WHIP; -1 Units on the road.
  • Dan Haren (R) is 3-0; 1.84 ERA; 0.93 WHIP; +2.1 Units at home.

    Prediction: Rangers +190.
    .5 Units.
    Incorrect; -$50




    Arizona Diamondbacks (31-23) at Philadelphia Phillies (26-25).
    Line: Diamondbacks +100; Phillies -110.

    I can't believe we're getting Randy Johnson as an underdog. I really can't. If Doug Davis and Micah Owings can win in Philly, why can't Johnson? The Diamondbacks are hot and the Phillies can't hit southpaws because they have way too many left-handed bats in the lineup. This is my largest play of the year thus far.

  • Randy Johnson (L) is 2-0; 1.54 ERA; 0.69 WHIP; +2 Units on the road.
  • Jamie Moyer (L) is 1-1; 5.87 ERA; 1.48 WHIP; +1.7 Units at home.

    Prediction: Diamondbacks +100.
    3 Units.
    Correct; +$300




    New York Yankees (21-29) at Toronto Blue Jays (24-27).
    Line: Yankees -155; Blue Jays +140.

    I was going to pass on this game when the line was -130/+120 last night, but now it's -155/+140. Who in their right mind is still betting the Yankees? I don't get it, but whatever. Let's keep fading them.

  • Tyler Clippard (R) is 1-0; 1.50 ERA; 1.00 WHIP; +1.2 Units on the road.
  • Jesse Litsch (R) is 1-0; 1.04 ERA; 0.81 WHIP; +1.1 Units at home.

    Prediction: Blue Jays +140.
    .5 Units.
    Incorrect; -$50




    Florida Marlins (25-27) at Chicago Cubs (22-28).
    Line: Marlins +130; Cubs -140.

    Here we go... The Cubs have to win this game, right? They're about to get swept by Florida, for crying out loud! Ted Lilly over Sergio Mitre is a no-brainer. However, Chicago just doesn't win when it's expected to and vice versa. Marlins sweep!

  • Sergio Mitre (R) is 2-0; 2.40 ERA; 0.87 WHIP; +1.4 Units on the road.
  • Ted Lilly (R) is 2-2; 2.70 ERA; 0.95 WHIP; -4.2 Units at home.

    Prediction: Marlins +130.
    .5 Units.
    Correct; +$65




    St. Louis Cardinals (20-29) at Colorado Rockies (25-27).
    Line: Cardinals +135; Rockies -1.5 +130.

    We're going to keep fading the Cardinals here. That's it - that's my write-up.

    Because that was so short, I want to post a link to this rapper's MySpace music page. He's really talented and if you like hip-hop, you will enjoy "Zion" and "Horah Hop." Check it out Here.

  • Todd Wellemeyer (R) is making his first start.
  • Jason Hirsh (R) is 1-2; 4.09 ERA; 1.15 WHIP; -1.6 Units at home.

    Prediction: Rockies -1.5 +130.
    2 Units.
    Incorrect; -$200


    Tuesday, May 29, 2007 (2-2, +$20)



    New York Yankees (21-28) at Toronto Blue Jays (23-27).
    Line: Yankees -155; Blue Jays +140.

    I only lost $100 yesterday (after winning $625 on Sunday), so it wasn't a complete disaster, but I have some beef with two teams. How could the Tigers not only blow a lead to Tampa Bay, but lose to Edwin Jackson, who was winless this season? What a disgrace. Also, I watched the Braves-Brewers contest, and I couldn't believe how many opportunities Milwaukee continuously blew. The team must have had runners in scoring position with less than two outs at least on four occasions. Just one run scored. Horrible; just horrible.

    Oh, and I also have some beef with myself. I liked the Blue Jays yesterday but didn't bet it for two reasons: I had so many games already, and I didn't want to lay money on Dustin McGowan. Oops. Let's keep fading the Yankees. Scared of gambling against Andy Pettitte? New York is just 4-6 (-5.3 Units) with him on the mound despite his impressive stats.

  • Andy Pettitte (L) is 1-2; 2.27 ERA; 1.16 WHIP; -3 Units on the road.
  • Shaun Marcum (R) is 0-0; 0.00 ERA; 0.50 WHIP; -1.5 Units at home.

    Prediction: Blue Jays +140.
    1 Unit.
    Correct; +$140




    Cleveland Indians (31-18) at Boston Red Sox (35-15).
    Line: Indians +155; Red Sox -2.5 +160.

    Lots of reasons to like the Bo-Sox here: They're hot; Josh Beckett's undefeated; Cleveland isn't great on the road; and Jeremy Sowers Mix is complete garbage outside of Cleveland. Five of Boston's eight victories with Beckett on the mound (8-0) have been by at least three runs. So, we're getting +160 on a 62.5-percent proposition. Tons of value there.

  • Jeremy Sowers (L) is 1-3; 7.28 ERA; 1.72 WHIP; -2.1 Units on the road.
  • Josh Beckett (R) is 4-0; 3.23 ERA; 1.04 WHIP; +5 Units at home.

    Prediction: Red Sox -2.5 +160.
    1 Unit.
    Incorrect; -$100




    Atlanta Braves (29-22) at Milwaukee Brewers (28-23).
    Line: Braves +105; Brewers -115.

    Lots of value with the Braves at +105. We're getting money with John Smoltz, who has thrown 14 consecutive scoreless innings against the Red Sox and Mets, playing a team that's crapping its pants right now.

  • John Smoltz (R) is 3-1; 3.52 ERA; 1.23 WHIP; +3.6 Units on the road.
  • Ben Sheets (R) is 2-1; 3.15 ERA; 1.05 WHIP; +0.1 Units at home.

    Prediction: Braves +105.
    2 Units.
    Incorrect; -$200




    St. Louis Cardinals (20-28) at Colorado Rockies (24-27).
    Line: Cardinals -110; Rockies +100.

    We're going to keep fading the Cardinals here. I have no faith in Braden Looper on the road, while Rodrigo Lopez is coming off three outstanding performances against Arizona and Los Angeles (twice). Both lineups are superior to St. Louis'.

  • Braden Looper (R) is 3-2; 3.90 ERA; 1.33 WHIP; +1.6 Units on the road.
  • Rodrigo Lopez (R) is 1-0; 1.64 ERA; 1.17 WHIP; +2 Units at home.

    Prediction: Rockies +100.
    2 Units.
    Correct; +$200


    $20 Shield Bet to win $210
    (Parlay all 1- and 2-Unit picks against yourself just in case of a disastrous day)
    Incorrect; -$20


    Monday, May 28, 2007 (3-5, -$100)



    Pittsburgh Pirates (22-27) at Cincinnati Reds (18-33).
    Line: Pirates -110; Reds +100.

    What an incredible betting Sunday. My best day of the year. Let's follow it up by taking the Pirates. Now, I've never bet on Pittsburgh in a visiting role, but then again, I've never seen a team as pathetic as Cincinnati. How do you drop six of seven to the Nationals and Pirates? This seems too good to be true, and I don't want to take the -1.5 Run Line with an offensively challenged squad, so .5 Units it is.

  • Ian Snell (R) is 1-1; 3.00 ERA; 1.15 WHIP; +2.4 Units on the road.
  • Kyle Lohse (R) is 0-2; 3.91 ERA; 1.42 WHIP; -0.5 Units at home.

    Prediction: Pirates -110.
    .5 Units.
    Incorrect; -$55




    Atlanta Braves (28-22) at Milwaukee Brewers (28-22).
    Line: Braves +120; Brewers -1.5 +155.

    Two teams that started off hot but have recently fallen on hard times. So, what distinguishes one from the other? Milwaukee is solid at home; most of its recent losses came on the road. Meanwhile, Chuck James isn't really that effective in opposing ball parks.

  • Chuck James (L) is 3-2; 4.64 ERA; 1.43 WHIP; -1.5 Units on the road.
  • Chris Capuano (L) is 3-1; 4.13 ERA; 1.29 WHIP; +3.3 Units at home.

    Prediction: Brewers -1.5 +155.
    1 Unit.
    Incorrect; -$100




    Chicago White Sox (24-21) at Minnesota Twins (24-25).
    Line: White Sox +165; Twins -185.

    I said this yesterday about betting against Roy Oswalt. It takes guts to do it, but it might pay off. The Twins are only 5-5 in Johan Santana's starts this season for -4.1 Units. So, if you've been fading Santana this season, you've quadrupled your money.

  • Jose Contreras (R) is 2-2; 1.91 ERA; 1.03 WHIP; +1.9 Units on the road.
  • Johan Santana (L) is 2-3; 4.35 ERA; 1.29 WHIP; -4.4 Units at home.

    Prediction: White Sox +165.
    1 Unit.
    Incorrect; -$100




    Florida Marlins (23-27) at Chicago Cubs (22-26).
    Line: Marlins +145; Cubs -160.

    Wow, the Cubs are really dumb. They took Rich Hill out after six shutout innings in which he threw only 66 pitches just so they could have a pinch hitter in the top of the seventh with two outs and a man on third in a 0-0 affair. I would have agreed with the move if Hill was at 80-90 pitches. But he was throwing a gem and could have gone the distance. Instead, Chicago's bullpen lost the game, 2-1.

    As I've been saying about the Cubs, they lose when they're supposed to win and vice versa. That's why they're 10-12 at home and -8.9 Units as a favorite.

  • Byung-Hyun Kim (R) is 1-1; 7.56 ERA; 1.80 WHIP; +0.2 Units on the road.
  • Sean Marshall (L) is making his first home start of the year.

    Prediction: Marlins +145.
    .5 Units.
    Correct; +$75




    St. Louis Cardinals (20-27) at Colorado Rockies (23-27).
    Line: Cardinals +135; Rockies -1.5 +135.

    The Cardinals are terrible on the road and Kip Wells is garbage wherever he plays. Of Wells' eight losses this season, six have been by at least two runs. The hot Rockies win big.

  • Kip Wells (R) is 1-4; 6.00 ERA; 1.37 WHIP; -3.2 Units on the road.
  • Jeff Francis (L) is 1-3; 5.26 ERA; 1.65 WHIP; -3.3 Units at home.

    Prediction: Rockies -1.5 +135.
    2 Units.
    Correct; +$270




    Cleveland Indians (31-17) at Boston Red Sox (34-15).
    Line: Indians +140; Red Sox -1.5 +125.

    Wow, that's a lot of games already, and they were all in the afternoon. Not too many at night - I hope. Curt Schilling is a perfectionist and you can tell by his stats. He's had three poor starts this season. He surrendered one run in each contest after his first pair of bad outings. The third just took place last week. I think he rebounds against the Indians and Clifton Lee, who sucks on the road.

  • Clifton Lee (L) is 1-1; 6.38 ERA; 1.42 WHIP; -1.1 Units on the road.
  • Curt Schilling (R) is 1-0; 3.51 ERA; 1.35 WHIP; +2.2 Units at home.

    Prediction: Red Sox -1.5 +125.
    1 Unit.
    Correct; +$125




    Detroit Tigers (29-20) at Tampa Bay (20-28).
    Line: Tigers -1.5 +100; Devil Rays +130.

    Oh, I almost forgot. I'd like to wish everyone a happy holiday. This holiday is one of my favorites, right next to Christmas, New Years and Thanksgiving. I love Edwin Jackson Day. Betting against him is so much fun.

  • Chad Durbin (R) is 3-1; 4.29 ERA; 1.29 WHIP; +2.7 Units on the road.
  • Edwin Jackson (R) is 0-3; 9.37 ERA; 2.27 WHIP; -4.4 Units at home.

    Prediction: Tigers -1.5 +100.
    2 Units.
    Incorrect; -$200




    Seattle Mariners (24-22) at Los Angeles Angels (31-20).
    Line: Mariners +140; Angels -1.5 +135.

    Last game. I swear. Mariners-Angels games usually go to the visitor, but I have to pick L.A. in this spot. Miguel Batista cannot pitch against the Angels; they've destroyed him the last two times he's faced them. Meanwhile, Bartolo Colon has been downright dominant as a host this season.

  • Miguel Batista (R) is 2-1; 4.18 ERA; 1.65 WHIP; +2.8 Units on the road.
  • Bartolo Colon (R) is 2-0; 2.14 ERA; 0.81 WHIP; +0.7 Units at home.

    Prediction: Angels -1.5 +135.
    1 Unit.
    Incorrect; -$100


    $15 Shield Bet to win $300
    (Parlay all 1- and 2-Unit picks against yourself just in case of a disastrous day)
    Incorrect; -$15


    Sunday, May 27, 2007 (4-1, +$625)



    New York Mets (31-17) at Florida Marlins (23-26).
    Line: Mets -1.5 +130; Marlins +115.

    So, Arizona has a comfortable 5-2 lead in the eighth inning with two outs and no men on. One Houston player gets on base. No big deal, right? Nope. Carlos Lee belts a 2-run homer to draw within 5-4. One inning later, the game ends with that final score. This is after the Twins failed to score enough runs on Tomo Ohka, while the White Sox-Rays contest was canceled, meaning we missed an opportunity to make money off of Edwin Jackson. Words can't describe my frustration right now.

    I'm siding with the Mets yet again. They're now 14-8 at Florida the past three seasons for +6 Units. Jorge Sosa hasn't played the Marlins yet this year, but he surrendered only three earned runs in about 13 innings of work against them in 2006. Don't mind Sosa's road stats too much; the negative numbers came from one game against the Braves, who are very familiar with him.

  • Jorge Sosa (R) is 1-1; 6.10 ERA; 1.45 WHIP; 0 Units on the road.
  • Scott Olsen (R) is 3-2; 4.40 ERA; 1.44 WHIP; +1.1 Units at home.

    Prediction: Mets -1.5 +130.
    1 Unit.
    Correct; +$130




    Los Angeles Angels (30-20) at New York Yankees (21-26).
    Line: Angels +125; Yankees -135.

    I know quite a few people who have made a decent amount of money just betting against the Yankees this season. On a $100 betting scale, you'd be up $1,940 if you just faded them every single game. I just hope it's not too late to jump onto the bandwagon. There's no way Mike Mussina should be favored over John Lackey.

  • John Lackey (R) is 4-2; 2.58 ERA; 1.23 WHIP; +2 Units on the road.
  • Mike Mussina (R) is 1-2; 8.10 ERA; 1.56 WHIP; -3.2 Units at home.

    Prediction: Angels +125.
    2 Units.
    Correct; +$250




    Toronto Blue Jays (22-26) at Minnesota Twins (23-25).
    Line: Blue Jays -125; Twins +115.

    If the Twins finally don't take advantage of Toronto's ineptness on the road, I swear...

  • A.J. Burnett (R) is 2-3; 5.60 ERA; 1.50 WHIP; -1.7 Units on the road.
  • Carlos Silva (R) is 0-2; 2.55 ERA; 1.30 WHIP; -2.1 Units at home.

    Prediction: Twins +115.
    .5 Units.
    Correct; +$55




    Chicago Cubs (22-25) at Los Angeles Dodgers (28-21).
    Line: Cubs +110; Dodgers -120.

    How can the Cubs possibly win this game? There's no way. Well, they're the team that makes no sense, which means they'll likely win this contest. They're 6-2 in L.A. the past three seasons, which is complete bizarre.

  • Rich Hill (L) is 2-3; 3.92 ERA; 1.05 WHIP; -2.4 Units on the road.
  • Randy Wolf (L) is 5-2; 4.01 ERA; 1.22 WHIP; +2.7 Units at home.

    Prediction: Cubs +110.
    .5 Units.
    Incorrect; -$50




    Houston Astros (21-28) at Arizona Diamondbacks (28-23).
    Line: Astros -130; Diamondbacks +120.

    It takes a lot of guts to bet against Roy Oswalt, but that's what I'm going to do here. Three reasons why: First of all, the Astros stink; they've lost seven in a row. Secondly, Oswalt's just not good on the road; he's 2-2 with a 5.54 ERA and 1.54 WHIP. And finally, Livan Hernandez has been downright dominant at home, as you can tell by the stats below.

  • Roy Oswalt (R) is 2-2; 5.54 ERA; 1.54 WHIP; -0.4 Units on the road.
  • Livan Hernandez (R) is 2-0; 2.25 ERA; 1.36 WHIP; +1.9 Units at home.

    Prediction: Diamondbacks +120.
    2 Units.
    Correct; +$240


    Saturday, May 26, 2007 (2-2, -$165)



    Chicago Cubs (21-25) at Los Angeles Dodgers (28-20).
    Line: Cubs -1.5 +145; Dodgers +105.

    I found this stat interesting: The Cubs, despite last night's loss, are 5-2 in L.A. the past three years. Actually, that sounds about right because that inept team wins when it's supposed to lose and vice versa. Carlos Zambrano is 2-0 as a dog (2-6 as a favorite). I'm taking Chicago as a small opinion play.

  • Carlos Zambrano (R) is 3-1; 4.09 ERA; 1.42 WHIP; +1.2 Units on the road.
  • Mark Hendrickson (L) is 1-0; 3.08 ERA; 1.29 WHIP; +2 Units at home.

    Prediction: Cubs -1.5 +145.
    .5 Units.
    Correct; +$75




    New York Mets (30-17) at Florida Marlins (23-25).
    Line: Mets -1.5 +110; Marlins +125.

    I like the Mets here as a small play. They're 13-8 at Florida the past three seasons for +5 Units. New York is also 7-2 when John Maine's on the mound.

  • John Maine (R) is 4-0; 1.64 ERA; 1.00 WHIP; +5.1 Units on the road.
  • Wes Obermueller (R) is 1-0; 4.09 ERA; 1.82 WHIP; +2.2 Units at home.

    Prediction: Mets -1.5 +110.
    .5 Units.
    Correct; +$60




    Tampa Bay Devil Rays (19-28) at Chicago White Sox (24-20).
    Line: Devil Rays +180; White Sox -2.5 +170.

    Edwin Jackson's one of the worst pitchers in Major League Baseball. I'll be shocked if this isn't a blowout. Five of Jackson's eight losses have been by at least three runs. So, we're getting +170 on a 62.5-percent proposition. Not bad at all.

  • Edwin Jackson (R) is 0-3; 6.53 ERA; 1.65 WHIP; -4 Units on the road.
  • Javier Vazquez (R) is 1-1; 3.37 ERA; 1.07 WHIP; 0 Units at home.

    Prediction: White Sox -2.5 +170.
    2 Units.
    Game postponed; no action.




    Toronto Blue Jays (21-26) at Minnesota Twins (23-24).
    Line: Blue Jays +120; Twins -1.5 +145.

    I'm taking the Twins again. Ramon Ortiz has been knocked around lately, but most of his poor outings were on the road. He's not bad at home. Meanwhile, Toronto's Tomo Ohka has been horrendous in a visiting role. C'mon Blue Jays, please lose this one by at least two runs.

  • Tomo Ohka (R) is 1-1; 7.02 ERA; 1.74 WHIP; +1.9 Units on the road.
  • Ramon Ortiz (R) is 2-1; 3.43 ERA; 0.91 WHIP; +1.2 Units at home.

    Prediction: Twins -1.5 +145.
    2 Units.
    Incorrect; -$200




    Houston Astros (21-27) at Arizona Diamondbacks (27-23).
    Line: Astros +145; Diamondbacks -1.5 +130.

    No reason not to keep fading the Astros. They're horrendous on the road, dropping their last six.

  • Chris Sampson (R) is 2-3; 4.39 ERA; 1.43 WHIP; -0.4 Units on the road.
  • Brandon Webb (R) is 0-2; 5.46 ERA; 1.46 WHIP; -1.2 Units at home.

    Prediction: Diamondbacks -1.5 +130.
    1 Unit.
    Incorrect; -$100


    Friday, May 25, 2007 (1-3, -$280)



    Cleveland Indians (28-17) at Detroit Tigers (29-17).
    Line: Indians +110; Tigers -1.5 +160.

    Had a winning night, but should have done better. A word on the Baltimore-Toronto loss. First of all, the Blue Jays should have gave the Player of the Game award to Melvin Mora, who grounded out into two double plays in the first three innings. Good job, Mel. Secondly, I'm not betting against Shaun Marcum anymore. Marcum, who was brutal last season, has earned my respect. More on Toronto's pitching staff later.

    This didn't work yesterday, but I'll make note of it again. The Indians are just not that good in a visiting role. They've dropped five of seven on the road, giving them an 11-13 record for the season. Lots of value with the Tigers, who have the superior pitcher.

  • Paul Byrd (R) is 0-1; 4.12 ERA; 1.32 WHIP; -3.4 Units on the road.
  • Nate Robertson (L) is 3-1; 4.58 ERA; 1.50 WHIP; -1.9 Units at home.

    Prediction: Tigers -1.5 +160.
    1 Unit.
    Incorrect; -$100




    Seattle Mariners (21-22) at Kansas City Royals (19-29).
    Line: Mariners -115; Royals +105. Total: 8 +100/-120

    I usually don't do totals... Scratch that - I've never done a total before, but this just makes too much sense to me. Seattle can't hit on the road. Felix Hernandez will shut down the Royals. Sixty percent of Gil Meche's outings have gone Under. Should be a 3-2 contest.

  • Felix Hernandez (R) is 1-0; 0.00 ERA; 0.33 WHIP; +1.6 Units on the road.
  • Gil "Paper" Meche (R) is 2-1; 3.41 ERA; 1.02 WHIP; +1.8 Units at home.

    Prediction: Under 8 Runs -120.
    .5 Units.
    Incorrect; -$60




    Toronto Blue Jays (20-24) at Minnesota Twins (22-24).
    Line: Blue Jays +135; Twins -1.5 +150.

    I haven't had much success betting the Twins in the past, but they've heated up lately, winning four of their previous six. Sam Baker pitched extremely well in his first outing, going eight and a third. I still don't have faith in the Blue Jays if they have to play in the states. That goes double for Jesse Litsch, who got rocked at Philadelphia in his previous start. Imagine what Minnesota will do to him in the Homer Dome.

  • Jesse Litsch (R) is 0-1; 9.00 ERA; 2.00 WHIP; -1 Units on the road.
  • Sam Baker (R) is 1-0; 2.16 ERA; 0.72 WHIP; +1.4 Units on the road (no home stats).

    Prediction: Twins -1.5 +150.
    2 Units.
    Incorrect; -$200




    Houston Astros (21-26) at Arizona Diamondbacks (26-23).
    Line: Astros +115; Diamondbacks -1.5 +165.

    I'm going to keep fading the Astros on the road; they've dropped their last five outside of Houston. The moneyline price for this game (-125) is a bit too high, so I'm going to make a .5-Unit play on the run line. Look how similar the two pitchers are, by the way. Very scary.

  • Woody Williams (R) is 1-3; 5.11 ERA; 1.41 WHIP; +1.2 Units on the road.
  • Edgar Gonzalez (R) is 0-1; 5.89 ERA; 1.42 WHIP; +1.2 Units at home.

    Prediction: Diamondbacks -1.5 +165.
    .5 Units.
    Correct; +$80


    Thursday, May 24, 2007 (2-2, +$80)



    Los Angeles Angels (28-19) at Detroit Tigers (28-17).
    Line: Angels +135; Tigers -1.5 +130.

    Rebounded with a solid night, though I wish I would have gotten the Red Sox-Yankees game right so I could have swept the board with my big plays.

    I can't figure out why anyone would side with the Angels here. Detroit hits better and has the superior pitcher on the mound. Ervin Santana is horrendous on the road. Actually, the entire Angels squad has trouble in a visiting role; they're actually 11-13 (-2.5 Units) outside of Anaheim.

  • Ervin Santana (R) is 0-4; 7.86 ERA; 1.98 WHIP; -5.3 Units on the road.
  • Jeremy Bonderman (R) is 2-0; 4.88 ERA; 1.21 WHIP; -1.1 Units at home.

    Prediction: Tigers -1.5 +130.
    1 Unit.
    Correct; +$130




    Toronto Blue Jays (19-24) at Baltimore Orioles (20-24).
    Line: Blue Jays +110; Orioles -1.5 +165.

    I'm siding with Baltimore today, as the Blue Jays are complete garbage on the road. Shaun Marcum has pitched extremely well this season, but that could be a result of playing Tampa Bay and Philadelphia. The Orioles should be able to hit him. Great price - if Marcum were as inept as Dustin McGowan, this would be a 2- or 3-Unit play.

  • Shaun Marcum (R) is 1-0; 3.00 ERA; 0.83 WHIP; +1.3 Units on the road.
  • Jeremy Guthrie (R) is 1-1; 1.64 ERA; 1.00 WHIP; -0.3 Units at home.

    Prediction: Orioles -1.5 +165.
    1 Unit.
    Incorrect; -$100




    Cleveland Indians (27-17) at Kansas City Royals (19-28).
    Line: Indians -130; Royals +120.

    I guess we're in the Twilight Zone because Kansas City's on fire and Cleveland is struggling. The Royals have won eight of 10, while the Indians have dropped five of their previous six road contests. Cleveland is actually 10-13 in away games this season, so I'm confused as to why Kansas City is an underdog.

  • Jeremy Sowers (L) is 0-3; 9.13 ERA; 1.94 WHIP; -3.1 Units on the road.
  • Jorge de la Rosa (L) is 3-1; 2.39 ERA; 1.18 WHIP; +3.1 Units at home.

    Prediction: Royals +120.
    .5 Units.
    Incorrect; -$50




    Houston Astros (21-25) at Arizona Diamondbacks (25-23).
    Line: Astros +100; Diamondbacks -110.

    I can't take the -1.5 Run Line with such an inept Arizona offense, but I do like the regular money line at -110. Houston's road struggles will continue. Check out Wandy Rodriguez's stats.

    As you may have noticed, no 2-Unit plays tonight. All small stuff, as I'm not really in love with anything.

  • Wandy Rodriguez (L) is 0-2; 6.75 ERA; 1.55 WHIP; -1.2 Units on the road.
  • Micah Owings (R) is 1-1; 3.86 ERA; 1.29 WHIP; -2.5 Units at home.

    Prediction: Diamondbacks -110.
    1 Unit.
    Correct; +$100


    Wednesday, May 23, 2007 (2-2, +$290)



    Toronto Blue Jays (19-24) at Baltimore Orioles (20-24).
    Line: Blue Jays +125; Orioles -1.5 +155.

    I just had one of the worst nights in my baseball handicapping career, and it coincidentally took place when I installed this new Units system. The Reds pick was my fault; I shouldn't have taken such a crappy team at such a high price. Baltimore just couldn't get the job done, while Arizona killed itself with missed opportunities. Seriously, the Diamondbacks grounded into four double plays and left tons of men on base in scoring position. They should have scored at least six runs last night.

    I wasn't the only one who had a rough day. Every single respectable handicapper I've referred to had a losing record last night. One guy who was up 80 Units or so lost about two grand. It was a blood bath.

    Well, it's a new day and I'm going to stick with what's been working before. Baltimore should be able to avenge yesterday's loss, as Dustin McGowan is a horrendous road pitcher. Steve Trachsel's not too bad of a host.

  • Dustin McGowan (R) is 0-1; 9.31 ERA; 1.86 WHIP; -2 Units on the road.
  • Steve Trachsel (R) is 1-0; 1.47 ERA; 1.04 WHIP; +1.1 Units at home.

    Prediction: Orioles -1.5 +155.
    2 Units.
    Correct; +$310




    Boston Red Sox (31-14) at New York Yankees (20-24).
    Line: Red Sox +115; Yankees -125.

    The Red Sox are now 13-11 in New York the past three seasons at +9.5 Units. Andy Pettitte is -6.5 Units on the year. The Yankees are ridiculously overrated; they should not be favored.

  • Curt Schilling (R) is 4-1; 3.57 ERA; 1.33 WHIP; +3.7 Units in 2007.
  • Andy Pettitte (R) is 2-3; 2.93 ERA; 1.36 WHIP; -6.5 Units in 2007.

    Prediction: Red Sox +115.
    1 Unit.
    Incorrect; -$100




    Houston Astros (21-23) at San Francisco Giants (22-22).
    Line: Astros +145; Giants -1.5 +140.

    Houston has sucked on the road lately, even losing with Roy Oswalt last night. The Giants have to be feeling pretty confident that they dispatched the Astros' ace. I like the Barry Zito-Matt Albers pitching matchup. Zito can still get it done at home against a team that hasn't faced him before. Albers is garbage. His home ERA is 13.51 in two starts.

  • Matt Albers (R) is 1-1; 4.84 ERA; 1.25 WHIP; +0.9 Units on the road.
  • Barry Zito (L) is 2-2; 4.31 ERA; 1.28 WHIP; +0.5 Units at home.

    Prediction: Giants -1.5 +140.
    1 Unit.
    Correct; +$140




    Minnesota Twins (20-24) at Texas Rangers (18-27).
    Line: Twins +110; Rangers -120.

    I like the Rangers as a small .5-Unit play. The Twins are 3-8 in their previous 11 road games, while Texas plays well (11-10) at home. Also, the last time Boof Bonser played the Rangers, he got lit up in a 10-2 defeat. Minnesota has never seen Robinson Tejeda before.

  • Boof Bonser (R) is 1-0; 2.50 ERA; 1.22 WHIP; +1.1 Units on the road.
  • Robinson Tejeda (R) is 1-2; 4.38 ERA; 1.30 WHIP; -0.5 Units at home.

    Prediction: Rangers -120.
    .5 Units.
    Incorrect; -$60


    Tuesday, May 22, 2007 (1-3, -$455)



    Washington Nationals (16-29) at Cincinnati Reds (18-27).
    Line: Nationals +150; Reds -1.5 +125.

    When I called laying -2.5 with the Reds a "square play" yesterday, I thought Cincinnati would struggle to score against Levale Speigner. That wasn't the case. Eight runs was enough. Or should have been enough. Bronson Arroyo surrendered six runs in two innings - against Washington's pitiful lineup. Hey Bronson, before you decide to throw the game, how about you let me know first? It pains me to type this, but I like Cincinnati again. Matt Chico, whose road stats accurately show how horrendous he is, has only made it past the fifth inning once as a visitor.

    Note: After consideration, I've decided to mark my plays down as Units. The lowest play will be .5 Units, or a $50 bet. An average play will be 1 Unit, or the standard $100 bet. Plays I like a lot will be 2 Units, or a $200 bet. Games I love will be 3 Units, or a $300 bet. I may go above 3 Units in the future, but that's it for now.

  • Matt Chico (L) is 0-4; 6.30 ERA; 1.95 WHIP; -4 Units on the road.
  • Kirk Saarloos (R) is 4-3; 4.13 ERA; 1.69 WHIP; +1.6 Units at home in 2006.

    Prediction: Reds -1.5 +125.
    1 Unit.
    Incorrect; -$100




    Boston Red Sox (30-14) at New York Yankees (20-23).
    Line: Red Sox +150; Yankees -165.

    I see no reason to back off of what I was talking about yesterday. The Red Sox are 12-11 in New York the past three seasons for an impressive +8 Units. Concerned about Julian Tavarez? I was too - until I realized that he limited the Yankees to three runs in a 7-4 victory as a +205 dog earlier this season. Concerned about Mike Mussina possibly shutting down Boston's lineup? I was too - until I glanced at his stats (see below). Keep in mind that Mussina has only played Baltimore, Minnesota, Texas and Chicago this season. All four offenses are relatively weak compared to Boston's.

  • Julian Tavarez (R) is 2-4; 5.59 ERA; 1.49 WHIP; 0 Units in 2007.
  • Mike Mussina (R) is 2-2; 5.64 ERA; 1.39 WHIP; -3.6 Units in 2007.

    Prediction: Red Sox +150.
    .5 Units.
    Correct; +75




    Blue Jays (19-24) at Baltimore Orioles (20-24).
    Line: Blue Jays -115; Orioles -105.

    Every respectable handicapper I know is on Baltimore today, so as one of them said, "It'll either be riches or a bloodbath for us all." Most square bettors will probably be siding with Toronto and A.J. Burnett, but upon further inspection, Burnett is complete garbage on the road, much like the lineup that will be backing him this evening.

  • A.J. Burnett (R) is 1-3; 5.65 ERA; 1.57 WHIP; -2.7 Units on the road.
  • Daniel Cabrera (R) is 3-1; 4.38 ERA; 1.28 WHIP; +4 Units at home.

    Prediction: Orioles -105.
    2 Units.
    Incorrect; -$210




    Colorado Rockies (18-27) at Arizona Diamondbacks (25-21).
    Line: Rockies +130; Diamondbacks -1.5 +145.

    The Rockies are one of these crappy road teams that I love to bet against. Josh Fogg has been downright awful this season. Meanwhile, Arizona has been on fire recently, owning a 9-5 record since May 6. The team is undefeated when Livan Hernandez pitches at home. Hernandez has put the clamps on Colorado's offense this season, limiting the lineup to just five earned runs in 20 innings.

  • Josh Fogg (R) is 1-2; 4.45 ERA; 1.48 WHIP; +0.6 Units on the road.
  • Livan Hernandez (R) is 2-0; 2.70 ERA; 1.40 WHIP; +3.3 Units at home in 2006.

    Prediction: Diamondbacks -1.5 +145.
    2 Units.
    Incorrect; -$200


    $20 Shield Bet to win $150
    (Parlay all picks against yourself just in case of a disastrous 0-4 day)
    Incorrect; -$20


    Monday, May 21, 2007 (1-2, -$55)



    Boston Red Sox (30-13) at New York Yankees (19-23).
    Line: Red Sox +135; Yankees -150.

    It seems like every respectable handicapper that I know is on the Yankees today. I just don't understand why. We don't know if Chien-Ming Wang is 100 percent yet. Sure, he shut down the White Sox, but he surrendered seven earned runs his previous start. In fact, Boston has defeat him the last two times they hit against him. Also, check out this stat: The Red Sox are 12-10 in New York. Doesn't sound too impressive, but that comes out to a whopping +9 Units (-10.6 Units for the Yankees). So, we're essentially betting on a 55.6 percent proposition with a +135 payout. I like that a lot.

  • Tim Wakefield (R) is 3-2; 1.39 ERA; 1.02 WHIP; +1.4 Units on the road.
  • Chien-Ming Wang (R) is 1-2; 5.31 ERA; 1.13 WHIP; -3.9 Units at home.

    Prediction: Red Sox +135.
    Incorrect; -$100




    Seattle Mariners (19-20) at Cleveland Indians (26-15).
    Line: Mariners +200; Indians -2.5 +145.

    This is a make-up game for one of those contests that was rained out in April. We're getting less value now, but I'll still take the Indians. Cleveland, owners of the best home-field advantage in baseball, is sending C.C. Sabathia out against a struggling offense. Meanwhile, Cha Seung Baek will be asked to put the clamps on one of the hottest lineups in the league. I'll be shocked if he makes it past the fourth inning.

  • Cha Seung Baek (R) is 1-0; 6.88 ERA; 1.53 WHIP; +4.8 Units on the road.
  • C.C. Sabathia (L) is 4-0; 2.83 ERA; 1.09 WHIP; +5 Units at home.

    Prediction: Indians -2.5 +145.
    Correct; +$145




    Washington Nationals (16-28) at Cincinnati Reds (17-27).
    Line: Nationals +205; Reds -2.5 +140.

    Laying -2.5 with the Reds is probably a square play, but I'm going to do it anyway. Washington has won a few games lately, although all of them have been at home. This team is still 5-15 in a visiting role. Bronson Arroyo will cut down the Nats, while Levale Speigner on the road is basically a disaster waiting to happen.

  • Levale Speigner (R) is 0-0; 9.00 ERA; 2.00 WHIP; +1.3 Units at home (first road start).
  • Bronson Arroyo (R) is 1-1; 4.12 ERA; 1.22 WHIP; -1.8 Units at home.

    Prediction: Reds -2.5 +140.
    Incorrect; -$100


    Sunday, May 20, 2007 (3-2, +$180)



    St. Louis Cardinals (16-24) at Detroit Tigers (26-16).
    Line: Cardinals +180; Tigers -1.5 +105.

    Note to Todd Jones: Can you take some money out of your multi-million dollar bank account and refund my money for yesterday's game? How do you blow an 8-5 lead with two outs in the bottom of the ninth inning? That's the second time you crapped out on me in a save situation. I thought you were supposed to be good.

  • Brad Thompson (R) is 0-4; 5.32 ERA; 1.27 WHIP; -4 Units on the road.
  • Justin Verlander (L) is 2-1; 4.75 ERA; 1.42 WHIP; -2.9 Units at home.

    Prediction: Tigers -1.5 +105.
    Correct; +$105




    Toronto Blue Jays (19-23) at Philadelphia Phillies (21-22).
    Line: Blue Jays +130; Phillies -1.5 +150.

    Todd Jones bashing aside, I have to apologize for yesterday's horrendous 0-3 performance. I don't know what happened to the Phillies and Indians. How did the former not score on Shaun Marcum? I have to believe Philadelphia will muster some sort of offense against rookie Jesse Litsch. Toronto is still garbage on the road.

  • Jesse Litsch (R) is making his first road start.
  • Adam Eaton (R) is 1-2; 7.54 ERA; 1.76 WHIP; -0.1 Units at home.

    Prediction: Phillies -1.5 +150.
    Correct; +$150




    Florida Marlins (20-23) at Tampa Bay Devil Rays (18-24).
    Line: Marlins +130; Devil Rays -1.5 +150.

    How did an AL squad manage to drop two against a road NL club? Easy -- Edwin Jackson and Jae Seo were pitching. Things will be different this time around, as Tampa Bay will look to avoid a sweep. James Shields will cut down the Marlins, while Sergio Mitre will struggle at Tropicana. Mitre's road stats don't look too bad, but his only visiting contest was at Pittsburgh. 'Nuff said.

  • Sergio Mitre (R) is 1-0; 2.25 ERA; 1.00 WHIP; 0 Units on the road.
  • James Shields (R) is 1-0; 3.96 ERA; 1.07 WHIP; +0.9 Units at home.

    Prediction: Devil Rays -1.5 +150.
    Incorrect; -$100




    Minnesota Twins (20-22) at Milwaukee Brewers (26-17).
    Line: Twins +135; Brewers -1.5 +130.

    Lots of things to like here, ignoring the fact that I'm going NL over AL. Milwaukee, looking to avoid the sweep, is very familiar with Ramon Ortiz, who pitched for Washington last year. In fact, they knocked him around in a 5-2 victory in 2006. The Brew Crew are 6-1 with Claudio Vargas on the mound.

  • Ramon Ortiz (R) is 1-3; 6.12 ERA; 1.56 WHIP; -1 Units on the road.
  • Claudio Vargas (R) is 2-0; 1.00 ERA; 1.11 WHIP; +3 Units at home.

    Prediction: Brewers -1.5 +130.
    Incorrect; -$100




    Los Angeles Dodgers (25-18) at Los Angeles Angels (26-18).
    Line: Dodgers +135; Angels -1.5 +145.

    I was thinking about taking the Angels yesterday, but chickened out at the last second, deciding that three games were enough. D'oh! I'm going AL over NL here, as the Angels are familiar with Derek Lowe when he pitched in Boston. Kelvim Escobar, whose home stats are off the charts, is an unknown quantity for the Dodgers. And if you're not buying into this AL-over-NL business, the Angels are 7-1 against the men in blue as hosts the past three seasons.

  • Derek Lowe (R) is 2-3; 4.10 ERA; 1.42 WHIP; +0.1 Units on the road.
  • Kelvim Escobar (R) is 3-1; 2.18 ERA; 1.18 WHIP; +2.5 Units at home.

    Prediction: Angels -1.5 +145.
    Correct; +$145


    $20 Shield Bet to win $225
    (Parlay all picks against yourself just in case of a disastrous 0-5 day)
    Incorrect; -$20


    Saturday, May 19, 2007 (0-3, -$300)



    Cincinnati Reds (16-26) at Cleveland Indians (25-14).
    Line: Reds +155; Indians -1.5 +120.

    Feels good to go 4-2. That's 6-2 the past two nights, completely eliminating the cold streak I had earlier this week. I'm riding the Indians again. They're hot, the Reds can't stop sucking and Matt Belisle's two road victories were against Pittsburgh and Arizona. San Diego knocked him around on the 14th. The superior AL squad will do the same behind Jeremy Sowers Mix. Sorry, had to get that nickname in.

  • Matt Belisle (R) is 1-3; 5.23 ERA; 1.45 WHIP; -2.5 Units on the road.
  • Jeremy Sowers (L) is 0-0; 2.08 ERA; 1.08 WHIP; -0.3 Units at home.

    Prediction: Indians -1.5 +120.
    Incorrect; -$100




    St. Louis Cardinals (16-23) at Detroit Tigers (25-16).
    Line: Cardinals +160; Tigers -1.5 +110.

    I still can't believe we got the Tigers at such a cheap price yesterday. Same formula tonight: AL over NL; hot club over cold scrubs; World Series revenge; solid pitcher over crappy hurler. Anthony Reyes is a disaster waiting to happen, especially on the road.

  • Anthony Reyes (R) is 0-4; 5.32 ERA; 1.27 WHIP; -4 Units on the road.
  • Nate Robertson (L) is 2-1; 4.75 ERA; 1.42 WHIP; -2.9 Units at home.

    Prediction: Tigers -1.5 +110.
    Incorrect; -$100




    Toronto Blue Jays (18-23) at Philadelphia Phillies (21-21).
    Line: Blue Jays +; Phillies -1.5 +125.

    Once again, I'm bucking my AL-over-NL system, but the Blue Jays are complete garbage on the road. The Phillies are hot.

    Speaking of hot, if you're into hip hop, check out this guy's music. He's been performing around Philly and is set to release an album sometime soon. Zion's my favorite song and Horah Hop's good too: Click Here (Myspace Page).

  • Shaun Marcum (R) is making his first road start.
  • Jamie Moyer (L) is 1-0; 3.66 ERA; 1.22 WHIP; +3 Units at home.

    Prediction: Phillies -1.5 +125.
    Incorrect; -$100


    Friday, May 18, 2007 (4-2, +$300)



    Cincinnati Reds (16-25) at Cleveland Indians (24-14).
    Line: Reds +165; Indians -1.5 +105.

    It felt good to go 2-0. I recouped most of the money I lost on Wednesday. Let's get the rest of it back.

    There are too many reasons why I like this game. AL over NL. Hot club vs. cold scrubs. Kyle Lohse on the road.

  • Kyle Lohse (R) is 1-3; 5.23 ERA; 1.45 WHIP; -2.5 Units on the road.
  • Clifton Lee (L) is 0-0; 7.50 ERA; 1.67 WHIP; +1 Units at home.

    Prediction: Indians -1.5 +105.
    Correct; +$105




    St. Louis Cardinals (16-22) at Detroit Tigers (24-16).
    Line: Cardinals +100; Tigers -1.5 +180.

    I can't believe this line. I know Andrew Miller is making his first start, but I wouldn't care if Detroit's pitcher was Reggie Miller. The Tigers are winning this game. They're AL; they want revenge for the World Series; and betting against the Cardinals on the road is always profitable. Braden Looper's stats look great, but keep in mind that he's beaten up three crappy teams on the road (Pirates, Cubs and Padres). The Brewers destroyed him. The Tigers will do the same.

  • Braden Looper (R) is 3-1; 2.08 ERA; 1.12 WHIP; +2.6 Units on the road.
  • Andrew Miller (L) is making his first start.

    Prediction: Tigers -1.5 +180.
    Correct; +$180




    Toronto Blue Jays (18-22) at Philadelphia Phillies (20-21).
    Line: Blue Jays +155; Phillies -1.5 +120.

    I know I'm bucking my AL over NL trend, but the Blue Jays stink on the road. Dustin McGowan's a disaster waiting to happen. And it's OK to bet on Jon Lieber because this game is taking place at night. Lieber's too fat to play under the hot sun.

  • Dustin McGowan (R) is 0-1; 9.00 ERA; 2.20 WHIP; -1 Units on the road.
  • Jon Lieber (R) is 1-1; 1.93 ERA; 1.07 WHIP; 0 Units at home.

    Prediction: Phillies -1.5 +120.
    Correct; +$120




    Florida Marlins (18-23) at Tampa Bay Devil Rays (18-22).
    Line: Marlins +105; Devil Rays -1.5 +165.

    Florida has dropped five of its previous seven road contests, all of which were against Pittsburgh and Washington. That's pathetic. Tampa Bay, the superior AL squad, will sit on the Marlins this weekend.

  • Byung-Hyun Kim (R) is 0-1; 15.00 ERA; 2.00 WHIP; -1 Units on the road.
  • Edwin Jackson (R) is 0-2; 7.25 ERA; 1.98 WHIP; -3.1 Units at home.

    Prediction: Devil Rays -1.5 +165.
    Incorrect; -$100




    Minnesota Twins (18-22) at Milwaukee Brewers (26-15).
    Line: Twins +140; Brewers -1.5 +125.

    I like going against this cold Minnesota squad that can't seem to do anything right. Milwaukee plays exceptionally well at home. This is bucking my AL-over-NL system, but I have faith that Chris Capuano can put the clamps on a Joe Mauer-less Twins lineup. And by the way, Boof Bonser's stats look OK. That's because his only road contests were against Kansas City and Tampa Bay.

  • Boof Bonser (R) is 0-0; 3.27 ERA; 1.64 WHIP; -0.5 Units on the road.
  • Chris Capuano (L) is 3-0; 2.96 ERA; 1.13 WHIP; +5 Units at home.

    Prediction: Brewers -1.5 +125.
    Incorrect; -$100




    Los Angeles Dodgers (25-16) at Los Angeles Angels (24-18).
    Line: Dodgers -115; Angels +105.

    A lot of picks today, so if you're betting all or almost all of them, make sure you do a Shield Bet, which is parlaying all of the games against yourself. A $10 bet (or 10 percent of what you're gambling on each game) on six teams should be enough just in case something disastrous takes place. Anyway, I like the Angels as a home dog even though we're going against Brad Penny.

  • Brad Penny (R) is 3-0; 0.86 ERA; 1.14 WHIP; +3 Units on the road.
  • Ervin Santana (R) is 2-1; 2.57 ERA; 1.05 WHIP; +0.6 Units at home.

    Prediction: Angels +105.
    Correct; +$105


    $10 Shield Bet to win $215
    Incorrect; -$10


    Thursday, May 17, 2007 (2-0, +$260)



    Minnesota Twins (18-21) at Cleveland Indians (23-14).
    Line: Twins -135; Indians +125.

    What a horrendous night. But since this game's going to start soon, let me talk about that later. Cleveland's hot and unbeatable at home. The Twins, meanwhile, are only 4-4 when Johan Santana pitches. Fausto Carmona has better numbers. Love the Indians as a dog here.

  • Johan Santana (L) is 4-3; 3.35 ERA; 1.18 WHIP; -3.8 Units.
  • Fausto Carmona (R) is 4-1; 3.12 ERA; 1.24 WHIP; +3.3 Units.

    Prediction: Indians +125.
    Correct; +$125




    Texas Rangers (15-25) at Tampa Bay Devil Rays (17-22).
    Line: Rangers +140; Devil Rays -1.5 +135.

    I'm so disgusted with last night's results. Nothing went right. Two games concluded as one-run affairs. Oakland lost to Kansas City, which was really strange. I lost lots of money just as you may have. The only thing I can do is look over what I'm doing and hope for better luck.

    In the wake of last night's 0-3 result, I've imposed some new rules: No more betting on teams that can't score at least 4.5 runs per game (i.e. Oakland, San Diego, Colorado, etc.) Strict betting against Washington and Kansas City because there's just little value. And that's about it.

    Anyway, I've been avoiding this series on purpose, given it's not a true home game for Tampa Bay. But it is a true road contest for Texas, which spells trouble for Kameron Loe. Just look at his stats.

  • Kameron Loe (R) is 0-1; 10.13 ERA; 1.69 WHIP; -1 Units.
  • Scott Kazmir (L) is 0-1; 3.42 ERA; 1.39 WHIP; +0.1 Units.

    Prediction: Devil Rays -1.5 +135.
    Correct; +$135


    Wednesday, May 16, 2007 (0-3, -$300)



    Baltimore Orioles (18-22) at Toronto Blue Jays (17-22).
    Line: Orioles +150; Blue Jays -1.5 +125.

    I think I was a bit overzealous in my picks yesterday. I shouldn't have swayed from my system and picked the Mets. I shouldn't have bet against Randy Johnson, stating that he was bound to come back to form soon. I still went 2-3 but would have gone 2-1 if I were smart. Let's go 2-1 tonight.

  • Brian Burres (L) is 1-0; 3.60 ERA; 2.40 WHIP; +1.6 Units on the road.
  • A.J. Burnett (R) is 2-0; 2.89 ERA; 1.29 WHIP; +0.4 Units at home.

    Prediction: Blue Jays -1.5 +125.
    Incorrect; -$100




    Kansas City Royals (13-27) at Oakland Athletics (20-18).
    Line: Royals +205; Athletics -2.5 +160.

    This is the only game I shouldn't have lost yesterday. Oakland maintained a 4-1 lead going into the top of the 9th but blew it because Alan Embree was in for the injured Huston Street. Ugh. If you think I'm frustrated, check out what one poster said on a message board:

    F**k Oakland the mother-f***ing [sic] c**k-sucking [sic] f*****s. F***k those f***ing pieces of s**t. F**k them I f***ing hope they f***ing lose now. C**k-sucking f*****s [sic].

    Another user said the A's are short for the Oakland A**holes. Based on those two people, I wouldn't be surprised if Embree received about 5,000 death threats today.

  • Odalis Perez (L) is 1-2; 6.05 ERA; 1.60 WHIP; -1.7 Units on the road.
  • Joe Blanton (R) is 1-1; 2.78 ERA; 0.93 WHIP; -0.9 Units at home.

    Prediction: Athletics -2.5 +160.
    Incorrect; -$100




    St. Louis Cardinals (16-21) at Los Angeles Dodgers (24-16).
    Line: Cardinals +145; Dodgers -1.5 +140.

    This almost seems like a no-brainer. Kip Wells on the road against the Dodgers is bound to be a disaster.

  • Kip Wells (R) is 1-3; 5.40 ERA; 1.16 WHIP; -2.2 Units on the road.
  • Randy Wolf (L) is 3-2; 4.40 ERA; 1.27 WHIP; +0.7 Units at home.

    Prediction: Dodgers -1.5 +140.
    Incorrect; -$100


    Tuesday, May 15, 2007 (2-3, -$50)



    Baltimore Orioles (18-21) at Toronto Blue Jays (16-22).
    Line: Orioles -115; Blue Jays +105.

    I have a lot of games going tonight, which probably isn't the smartest thing considering I'm on a bit of a cold spell. But I'm confident with all five, so let's hope we go at least 3-2. Picking Toronto on the money line is a bit of a relief; no sweating out the -1.5. Baltimore's road woes will continue.

  • Daniel Cabrera (R) is 0-2; 5.25 ERA; 1.67 WHIP; -2 Units on the road.
  • Jesse Litsch (R) is making his first start.

    Prediction: Blue Jays +105.
    Correct; +$105




    Chicago Cubs (17-19) at New York Mets (24-13).
    Line: Cubs +135; Mets -1.5 +145.

    This isn't really part of the bet-against-crappy-road-teams system I like to use, but hear this stat out: If you bet on the Mets' run line whenever John Maine took the mound this season, you'd be 6-1. Not too shabby. I like New York here, as Carlos Zambrano has been nothing but pure garbage thus far.

  • Carlos Zambrano (R) is 2-1; 5.04 ERA; 1.52 WHIP; -0.3 Units on the road.
  • John Maine (R) is 1-0; 2.19 ERA; 1.62 WHIP; +2 Units at home.

    Prediction: Mets -1.5 +145.
    Incorrect; -$100




    Arizona Diamondbacks (20-19) at Colorado Rockies (16-22).
    Line: Diamondbacks -105; Rockies -1.5 +190.

    This pick is a bit dangerous because Randy Johnson could finally turn it on. However, Johnson has been horrible this season and could continue his implosion in Colorado. The Diamondbacks can't seem to win on the road without Brandon Webb on the mound.

  • Randy Johnson (L) is 0-2; 6.00 ERA; 1.38 WHIP; -2.7 Units at home (no road stats).
  • Jason Hirsh (R) is 1-1; 3.60 ERA; 1.20 WHIP; +1 Units at home.

    Prediction: Rockies -1.5 +190.
    Incorrect; -$100




    Kansas City Royals (13-26) at Oakland Athletics (19-18).
    Line: Royals +185; Athletics -2.5 +160.

    Despite yesterday's loss to Kansas City (Gil "Paper" Meche was on the mound for the Royals), the Athletics have been hot lately, winning five of seven before last night's debacle. Oakland should be able to win today; Brian Bannister is definitely not Gil Meche.

  • Brian Bannister (R) is 0-1; 4.05 ERA; 0.90 WHIP; -1 Units on the road.
  • Joe Kennedy (R) is 0-0; 1.80 ERA; 1.70 WHIP; -2.4 Units at home.

    Prediction: Athletics -2.5 +160.
    Incorrect; -$100




    St. Louis Cardinals (16-20) at Los Angeles Dodgers (23-16).
    Line: Cardinals +135; Dodgers -1.5 +145.

    I know Brett Tomko isn't the greatest pitcher in the world, but eight earned runs in three innings? You've gotta be kidding me. The Dodgers, who for some reason couldn't score on Brad Thompson last night, should be able to pound the mediocre Adam Wainwright.

  • Adam Wainwright (R) is 1-0; 4.74 ERA; 1.79 WHIP; +3 Units on the road.
  • Derek Lowe (R) is 1-1; 2.40 ERA; 1.40 WHIP; -0.6 Units at home.

    Prediction: Dodgers -1.5 +145.
    Correct; +$145


    Monday, May 14, 2007 (0-1, -$100)



    St. Louis Cardinals (15-20) at Los Angeles Dodgers (23-15).
    Line: Cardinals +140; Dodgers -1.5 +145.

    Hell must have frozen over yesterday because the Blue Jays managed to score only one run on Jae Seo, the Royals and Jorge de la Rosa beat the White Sox 11-1 and Josh Beckett surrendered four earned runs in two innings against the mediocre Orioles. Thank God the Dodgers won. I'm taking them again. They're hot, the Cardinals stink on the road and no one really knows who Brad Thompson is.

  • Brad Thompson (R) is making his first start on the road.
  • Brett Tomko (R) is 0-1; 2.25 ERA; 1.17 WHIP; -0.3 Units at home.

    Prediction: Dodgers -1.5 +145.
    Incorrect; -$100


    Sunday, May 13, 2007 (1-3, -$185)



    Tampa Bay Devil Rays (14-22) at Toronto Blue Jays (15-21).
    Line: Devil Rays +135; Blue Jays -1.5 +130.

    I'm on an internet cafe in New Jersey and they're charging me by the minute so I'll try to make this quick.

  • Jae Seo (R) is 0-3; 10.89 ERA; 2.32 WHIP; +1.2 Units on the road.
  • Shaun Marcum (R) has not started this year.

    Prediction: Blue Jays -1.5 +130.
    Incorrect; -$100




    Baltimore Orioles (18-19) at Boston Red Sox (24-11).
    Line: Orioles +225; Red Sox -2.5 +140.

    I called all four winners yesterday. Problem was two of the games were one-run affairs. Still, 2-2 is a winning day. I'll take it.

  • Jeremy Guthrie (R) has no road starts.
  • Josh Beckett (R) is 4-0; 3.04 ERA; 1.05 WHIP; +4 Units at home.

    Prediction: Red Sox -2.5 +140.
    Incorrect; -$100




    Kansas City Royals (11-26) at Chicago White Sox (18-15).
    Line: Royals +185; White Sox -2.5 +160.

    The White Sox better win today's game by more than two runs. They claimed their past two contests against the Royals by a single score. That's just embarrassing. How do you almost get beaten by Kansas City?

  • Jorge de la Rosa (L) is 0-2; 6.50 ERA; 1.50 WHIP; -3 Units on the road.
  • Javier Vazquez (R) is 1-0; 2.13 ERA; 0.79 WHIP; +2 Units at home.

    Prediction: White Sox -2.5 +160.
    Incorrect; -$100




    Cincinnati Reds (15-22) at Los Angeles Dodgers (22-15).
    Line: Reds +160; Dodgers -1.5 +115.

    I'm running out of money here. Please click on the text link for Ticket City.com so I can get some of it back!

  • Bobby Livingston (L) is making his first start.
  • Mark Hendrickson (R) is 1-0; 0.00 ERA; 0.67 WHIP; +1 Units at home.

    Prediction: Dodgers -1.5 +115.
    Correct; +$115


    Saturday, May 12, 2007 (2-2, +$55)



    Baltimore Orioles (18-18) at Boston Red Sox (23-11).
    Line: Orioles +215; Red Sox -2.5 +130.

    Looks like I was able to hop onto the internet for a second. I can't believe I lost both games yesterday. Why didn't the White Sox put Bobby Jenks in to close instead of that Thronton guy? Ozzie Guillen is a man on a mission, and his goal is to make me lose money. Jerk.

  • Steve Trachsel (R) is 0-3; 5.48 ERA; 1.48 WHIP; -4 Units on the road.
  • Curt Schilling (R) is 1-0; 2.86 ERA; 1.00 WHIP; +0.2 Units at home.

    Prediction: Red Sox -2.5 +130.
    Correct; +$130




    Tampa Bay Devil Rays (14-21) at Toronto Blue Jays (14-21).
    Line: Devil Rays +115; Blue Jays -1.5 +150.

    I guess I should have covered this in the previous game, but how in the world did Boston lose to Baltimore? Won't happen again.

  • Edwin Jackson (R) is 0-3; 7.25 ERA; 1.98 WHIP; -3 Units on the road.
  • Dustin McGowan (R) has not started at home this year.

    Prediction: Blue Jays -1.5 +150.
    Incorrect; -$100




    Kansas City Royals (11-25) at Chicago White Sox (17-15).
    Line: Royals +210; White Sox -2.5 +165.

    And that's about all I have to say. I slept about 40 minutes last night preparing for a meeting. Luckily I made these picks in advance.

  • Scott Elarton (R) was 3-4; 5.00 ERA; 1.37 WHIP; +5.1 Units on the road in 2006.
  • Mark Buehrle (L) is 1-1; 2.20 ERA; 0.86 WHIP; +0.9 Units at home.

    Prediction: White Sox -2.5 +165.
    Incorrect; -$100




    Cincinnati Reds (15-21) at Los Angeles Dodgers (21-15).
    Line: Reds +160; Dodgers -1.5 +125.

    The Dodgers beat the Reds with Arroyo last night. Wouldn't it be great if they lose tonight even though the Reds have an inferior pitcher on the mound?

  • Kyle Lohse (R) is 1-2; 4.00 ERA; 1.26 WHIP; -1.5 Units on the road.
  • Brad Penny (R) is 1-0; 1.85 ERA; 1.27 WHIP; +1.4 Units at home.

    Prediction: Dodgers -1.5 +125.
    Correct; +$125


    Friday, May 11, 2007 (0-2, -$200)



    Baltimore Orioles (17-18) at Boston Red Sox (23-10).
    Line: Orioles +160; Red Sox -1.5 +105.

    Went 2-2 yesterday, but that's a winning day in baseball. Let's keep it rolling by betting against the Orioles on the road. Baltimore is 5-10 away from home. I know Julian Tavarez's numbers don't look promising, but keep in mind that he has surrendered only five earned runs the past two games, beating the Yankees and losing 2-1 at Minnesota.

  • Brian Burres (L) is 0-1; 12.26 ERA; 2.45 WHIP; -1 Units at home (no road stats).
  • Julian Tavarez (R) is 0-1; 11.56 ERA; 1.71 WHIP; -1 Units at home.

    Prediction: Red Sox -1.5 +105.
    Incorrect; -$100




    Kansas City Royals (11-24) at Chicago White Sox (16-15).
    Line: Royals +155; White Sox -1.5 +105.

    It's been a while since we've been able to experience the thrill of betting against Kansas City on the road. The Royals are 4-10 in visiting stadiums, and as you can tell below, Odalis Perez doesn't like playing away from home either.

  • Odalis Perez (L) is 1-1; 8.03 ERA; 2.03 WHIP; -0.7 Units on the road.
  • Jon Garland (R) is 0-2; 6.05 ERA; 1.19 WHIP; -3.5 Units at home.

    Prediction: White Sox -1.5 +105.
    Incorrect; -$100


    Thursday, May 10, 2007 (2-2, +$60)



    Seattle Mariners (15-14) at Detroit Tigers (20-12).
    Line: Mariners +225; Tigers -2.5 +130.

    Last night was my first losing day since Thursday. It was bound to happen. I lost $95 last night, although I made $400 between Friday and Tuesday. I'll take that. Let's rebound by going against Jeff Weaver. I said it the last time he started: Sportsbooks should offer -3.5 and -4.5 run lines whenever he pitches. Just look at his stats if you don't know how much he sucks.

  • Jeff Weaver (R) is 0-3; 13.50 ERA; 2.62 WHIP; -3 Units on the road.
  • Justin Verlander (R) is 1-1; 5.06 ERA; 1.44 WHIP; +0.4 Units at home.

    Prediction: Tigers -2.5 +130.
    Correct; +$130




    Texas Rangers (13-20) at New York Yankees (16-16).
    Line: Rangers +240; Yankees -2.5 +105.

    The Yankees look like they're back to do-well-in-the-regular-season, lose-early-in-the-playoffs form. Texas is 4-13 on the road, no thanks to Brandon McCarthy (see stats below).

  • Brandon McCarthy (R) is 0-3; 11.45 ERA; 2.55 WHIP; -3.1 Units on the road.
  • Chien-Ming Wang (R) is 1-1; 3.21 ERA; 0.79 WHIP; -1.3 Units at home.

    Prediction: Yankees -2.5 +105.
    Incorrect; -$100




    Pittsburgh Pirates (14-18) at Chicago Cubs (16-15).
    Line: Pirates +180; Cubs -1.5 +105.

    When I first looked at this I thought to myself, "Damn it, I like the Cubs. If I take them, I'm going to lose money. If I pass, they'll win 11-0 and I'll be sorry. I'm screwed either way." But then I remembered to factor in how much Paul Maholm sucks at life. Now it doesn't seem so bad.

  • Paul Maholm (L) is 0-3; 7.36 ERA; 1.98 WHIP; -3 Units on the road.
  • Carlos Zambrano (R) is 1-1; 7.05 ERA; 1.76 WHIP; -2.2 Units at home.

    Prediction: Cubs -1.5 +105.
    Incorrect; -$100




    Tampa Bay Devil Rays (14-19) at Baltimore Orioles (16-18).
    Line: Devil Rays +145; Orioles -1.5 +130.

    I took a day off from betting against the Devil Rays because James Shields was pitching, and it was a good thing I did, as Baltimore won but didn't cover yesterday. Casey Fossum is closer to Paul Maholm, Jeff Weaver and Brandon McCarthy than he is to Shields.

  • Casey Fossum (L) is 0-1; 8.25 ERA; 1.50 WHIP; -2 Units on the road.
  • Daniel Cabrera (R) is 2-1; 3.54 ERA; 1.27 WHIP; +3 Units at home.

    Prediction: Orioles -1.5 +130.
    Correct; +$130


    Wednesday, May 9, 2007 (1-2, -$95)



    Washington Nationals (9-24) at Milwaukee Brewers (23-10).
    Line: Nationals +180; Brewers -1.5 +105.

    What a terrible beat last night. Get this: The Brewers were up three on a -2.5 run line. Francisco Cordero, whose ERA was 0.00, was pitching in the top of the ninth with two outs and a man on third. Unfortunately, Cordero's first throw was a wild pitch, allowing Washington to claim its fourth run. The next pitch was the third out of the ball game. Ugh. I still won $170 last night, but going 4-1 and cashing in $420 would have been really sweet.

    I'm riding the Brew Crew again. Both the Nats' lineup and Jason Bergmann stink on the road. Milwaukee's hot. Cordero better not throw another wild pitch!

  • Jason Bergmann (R) is 0-1; 2.50 ERA; 1.11 WHIP; +0.5 Units on the road.
  • Claudio Vargas (R) is 2-0; 0.75 ERA; 1.17 WHIP; +2 Units at home.

    Prediction: Brewers -1.5 +105.
    Correct; +$105




    Houston Astros (15-17) at Cincinnati Reds (14-19).
    Line: Astros +135; Reds -1.5 +140.

    The only game I legitimately lost last night. I just can't see Woodrow Williams breaking out of his slump. Meanwhile, the Reds are 4-2 with Belisle on the mound. Houston is 2-7 on the road in non-Roy Oswalt starts since April 21. Only two of those defeats were by a single run.

  • Woody Williams (R) is 0-3; 5.64 ERA; 1.45 WHIP; 0 Units on the road.
  • Matt Belisle (R) is 1-1; 6.05 ERA; 1.57 WHIP; -0.2 Units at home.

    Prediction: Reds -1.5 +140.
    Incorrect; -$100




    Seattle Mariners (14-13) at Detroit Tigers (19-11).
    Line: Mariners +170; Tigers -1.5 +105.

    Cha Seung Baek on the road? Yeah, OK...

  • Cha Seung Baek (R) is 0-0; 12.38 ERA; 2.50 WHIP; +3 Units on the road.
  • Nate Robertson (L) is 1-1; 1.26 ERA; 0.98 WHIP; -1 Units at home.

    Prediction: Tigers -1.5 +105.
    Incorrect; -$100


    Tuesday, May 8, 2007 (3-2, +$170)



    Houston Astros (14-17) at Cincinnati Reds (13-17).
    Line: Astros -110; Reds +100.

    I'm pretty content with getting even money here, just so we don't have to bet the run line. Houston has a habit of losing by one run as visitors. By the way, I just pulled that out of my rear end, let me see if that's true. Of the Astros' non-Roy Oswalt road games, they are 1-7 since April 21, having lost two of those contests by one run. Oops, guess I was way off. Regardless, Wandy Rodriguez is not to be trusted outside the state of Texas.

  • Wandy Rodriguez (L) is 0-3; 6.23 ERA; 1.46 WHIP; -2.2 Units on the road.
  • Eric Milton (L) is 0-3; 4.32 ERA; 1.32 WHIP; -3 Units at home.

    Prediction: Reds +100.
    Incorrect; -$100




    Tampa Bay Devil Rays (14-17) at Baltimore Orioles (14-18).
    Line: Devil Rays +130; Orioles -1.5 +140.

    I just don't get why Baltimore is a -140 favorite on the money line. This is Tampa Bay and Jae Seo on the road we're talking about. It doesn't get much worse than that.

  • Jae Seo (R) is 0-2; 10.19 ERA; 2.32 WHIP; +2.2 Units on the road.
  • Jeremy Guthrie (R) is 0-1; 1.80 ERA; 1.00 WHIP; -1.3 Units at home.

    Prediction: Orioles -1.5 +140.
    Correct; +$140




    Seattle Mariners (14-13) at Detroit Tigers (19-11).
    Line: Mariners +185; Tigers -1.5 +100.

    I've gone 1-1 the past couple of nights. While that's not good in the NBA or NFL, you can make money doing that in baseball. That's why baseball's the most profitable sport to bet on. Let's fade Fellatio Ramirez again. The last time I did that, the Mariners lost but covered, thanks to Dice-Fraud's seven earned runs. I trust Jeremy Bonderman to hold a weak Mariner lineup to less than two scores.

  • Horacio Ramirez (L) is 0-2; 14.63 ERA; 3.38 WHIP; -2 Units on the road.
  • Jeremy Bonderman (R) is 1-0; 4.00 ERA; 1.11 WHIP; -2.1 Units at home.

    Prediction: Tigers -1.5 +100.
    Correct; +$100




    Texas Rangers (13-18) at New York Yankees (14-16).
    Line: Rangers +225; Yankees -2.5 +130.

    So, Texas is coming off a sweep against Toronto? Good for them! Now we can bet against them on the road, where they are 2-11 in non-Robinson Tejeda starts, having lost 10 of those 11 contests by at least two runs. Mike Wood had some success against the Yankees on May 3, but imagine what the Bronx Bombers are going to do to him now that they've had a chance to see his stuff. Won't be pretty.

  • Mike Wood (R) is 0-1; 2.84 ERA; 0.95 WHIP; -1 Units at home (no road starts).
  • Andy Pettitte (R) is 0-1; 7.27 ERA; 2.31 WHIP; -4.3 Units at home.

    Prediction: Yankees -2.5 +130.
    Correct; +$130




    Washington Nationals (9-23) at Milwaukee Brewers (22-10).
    Line: Nationals +210; Brewers -2.5 +150.

    Guess I won't be going 1-1 again with all of these picks, huh? I'm planning to keep riding Milwaukee, as some guy named Jason Simontacchi will be making his first career start against the hottest team in baseball. Good luck with all that, Jason.

  • Jason Simontacchi (R) will be making his first start.
  • Dave Bush (R) is 1-2; 5.57 ERA; 1.05 WHIP; -1.4 Units at home.

    Prediction: Brewers -2.5 +150.
    Incorrect; -$100


    Monday, May 7, 2007 (1-1, +$40)



    Washington Nationals (9-22) at Milwaukee Brewers (21-10).
    Line: Nationals +200; Brewers -2.5 +140.

    Had some bad luck yesterday with the Brewers, as Ben Sheets came up to the plate twice with the bases loaded. He struck out both times. Can the NL please institue the DH rule? Watching pitchers hit is boring, worthless and embarrassing. We don't ask hitters to pitch. Why should pitchers hit? The National League would be so much better off with this rule. It's no coincidence that the AL is much more dominant.

  • Matt Chico (L) is 0-3; 7.61 ERA; 2.31 WHIP; -3 Units on the road.
  • Chris Capuano (L) is 2-0; 4.19 ERA; 1.24 WHIP; +4 Units at home.

    Prediction: Brewers -2.5 +140.
    Correct; +$140




    Seattle Mariners (13-13) at New York Yankees (14-15).
    Line: Mariners +150; Yankees -1.5 +120.

    It's no secret that both the Mariners and Miguel Batista stink on the road. Seattle is 5-7 on the road, suffering five of those seven defeats by at least two runs. Miguel Batista's home ERA is the essentially the same as the one he has as a visitor. His numbers don't look too promising against New York's lineup.

  • Miguel Batista (R) is 1-1; 6.35 ERA; 1.59 WHIP; +0.2 Units on the road.
  • Matt DeSalvo (R) is making his first start.

    Prediction: Yankees -1.5 +120.
    Incorrect; -$100


    Sunday, May 6, 2007 (1-1, +$10)



    Pittsburgh Pirates (13-16) at Milwaukee Brewers (20-10).
    Line: Pirates +195; Brewers -2.5 +220.

    We're getting standard -110 juice for the -1.5 run line, so why not go for -2.5 at a lofty +220? By the way, I'd like to thank Derrek Lee for ruining a perfect 3-0 Saturday. Up 5-0 with a relief pitcher who couldn't throw strikes to save his life, Lee had a 2-0 count with the bases juiced and one out. Instead of patiently waiting to get walked like some of the guys in front of him, including hurler Rich Hill, Lee hit into a double play. Inning over. I didn't think much of it at the time because the Cubs still had a 5-run lead. Unfortunately, the pesky Nats scored thrice, ruining my -2.5 bet. Thanks Derrek Lee. How about you give me some of your salary and I'll forget this ever happened?

  • Tony Armas (R) is 0-2; 18.89 ERA; 3.30 WHIP; -2 Units on the road.
  • Ben Sheets (R) is 2-2; 3.21 ERA; 0.96 WHIP; -0.9 Units at home.

    Prediction: Brewers -2.5 +220.
    Incorrect; -$100




    Toronto Blue Jays (13-17) at Texas Rangers (12-18).
    Line: Blue Jays -120; Rangers +110.

    You know I usually take -1.5 or -2.5 run lines, so it's a bit of a relief to pick a straight-up underdog. Toronto has been exposed as a bit of a fraud on the road -- they've lost five in a row, including an 11-4 debacle with Roy Halladay on the mound yesterday. A.J. Burnett, meanwhile, has been awful. Also, I'm not taking them, but you may want to consider the Red Sox. The Twins will be without Joe Mauer and Justin Morneau versus Curt Schilling. Meanwhile, Boston will dismantle Sidney "The Refridgerator" Ponson.

  • A.J. Burnett (R) is 2-2; 6.43 ERA; 1.76 WHIP; -1.5 Units on the road.
  • Kameron Loe (R) is 1-1; 6.75 ERA; 1.61 WHIP; 0 Units at home.

    Prediction: Rangers +110.
    Correct; +$110


    Saturday, May 5, 2007 (2-1, +$145)



    Washington Nationals (9-20) at Chicago Cubs (13-14).
    Line: Nationals +185; Cubs -2.5 +170.

    I can't believe I'm betting on the Cubs as a favorite. Someone please stop me before I essentially burn my money. Here's my reason for doing so: Rich Hill is great, John Patterson sucks, and the Nats 2-7 in their previous nine road games, with all but one of those losses coming by at least three runs.

  • John Patterson (R) is 1-2; 4.86 ERA; 1.32 WHIP; +0.3 Units on the road.
  • Rich Hill (L) is 1-1; 2.63 ERA; 1.17 WHIP; -0.7 Units at home.

    Prediction: Cubs -2.5 +170.
    Incorrect; -$100




    Seattle Mariners (13-11) at New York Yankees (12-15).
    Line: Mariners +240; Yankees -2.5 +115.

    When people ask me who my favorite baseball player is, I can boldly say "Jeff Weaver." Jeff Weaver!? Yeah, you're guaranteed to win money if you bet against him. I hope Seattle keeps putting him out there the entire season. He's got AA stuff. Imagine what the Yankees are going to do to him. I can honestly say I'm shocked my sportsbook didn't have a -3.5 run line for this contest.

  • Jeff Weaver (R) is 0-2; 18.00 ERA; 3.20 WHIP; -2 Units on the road.
  • Chien-Ming Wang (R) is 0-1; 6.00 ERA; 1.50 WHIP; -2.3 Units at home.

    Prediction: Yankees -2.5 +115.
    Correct; +$115




    Pittsburgh Pirates (13-14) at Milwaukee Brewers (18-10).
    Line: Pirates +145; Brewers -1.5 +130.

    I'm not betting on Cincinnati today, so let me just mention what Edwin Encarnacion did in the first inning really irks me. Rockies pitcher Jason Hirsh walked two of the first three batters, showing no signs of control. So, there were men on first and second with just one out. Stepping up to the plate, Encarnacion brilliantly decided to swing at the first pitch. Two outs. Why in the world would he swing at the first pitch when the guy throwing the ball toward him has no control? No wonder Encarnacion is hitting .210. He should be benched.

  • Zach Duke (L) is 1-1; 6.35 ERA; 1.59 WHIP; +2.1 Units on the road.
  • Jeff Suppan (R) is 2-1; 2.45 ERA; 1.18 WHIP; +1 Units at home.

    Prediction: Brewers -1.5 +130.
    Correct; +$130


    Friday, May 4, 2007 (1-1, +$35)



    Colorado Rockies (11-17) at Cincinnati Reds (13-15).
    Line: Rockies +120; Reds -1.5 +160.

    I was hot, so I guess I was due to have a bad night. But what was up with Dice-Fraud allowing five runs in the first inning? Oh, and I'm never betting against Tom Gorzelanny ever again. He's beaten me four times this year. Four! Seriously, if someone offered me a 100-to-1 proposition that Gorzelanny couldn't survive an all-out assault from Michael Vick's 60 dying dogs, I wouldn't take it right now. He's just that good.

    Speaking of "that good," the Rockies are not that good on the road. Weakest segway ever. I don't care. Colorado hasn't won in Cincinnati in more than three years.

  • Jason Hirsh (R) is 1-1; 3.08 ERA; 1.20 WHIP; +0.6 Units on the road.
  • Matt Belisle (R) is 1-1; 5.51 ERA; 1.47 WHIP; +1 Units at home.

    Prediction: Reds -1.5 +160.
    Incorrect; -$100




    Pittsburgh Pirates (13-14) at Milwaukee Brewers (18-10).
    Line: Pirates +140; Brewers -1.5 +135.

    You know what the worst thing about betting against Gorzelanny is? Watching him pitch scoreless innings while looking at that stupid grin of his on MLB.com's Game Day, or whatever they call the thing that shows you every pitch. I seriously was thinking about jumping out of my window last night. Shouldn't happen today - Paul Maholm is garbage, especially on the road.

  • Paul Maholm (L) is 0-2; 7.36 ERA; 1.73 WHIP; -2 Units on the road.
  • Claudio Vargas (R) is 1-0; 1.50 ERA; 1.17 WHIP; +1 Units at home.

    Prediction: Brewers -1.5 +135.
    Correct; +$135


    Thursday, May 3, 2007 (0-2, -$200)



    Seattle Mariners (12-10) at Boston Red Sox (17-9).
    Line: Mariners +; Red Sox -2.5 +150.

    Seattle's not a good road team by any means and I love going against Fellatio, or Horacio -- whatever his name is -- Ramirez as a visiting pitcher. Taking the -2.5 sucks, but it's the only thing we can do to get the juice on our side.

  • Horacio Ramirez (L) is 0-1; 13.50 ERA; 3.25 WHIP; -1 Units on the road.
  • Dice-K (R) is 1-1; 5.79 ERA; 1.29 WHIP; -0.7 Units at home.

    Prediction: Red Sox -2.5 +150.
    Incorrect; -$100




    Pittsburgh Pirates (12-14) at Milwaukee Brewers (18-9).
    Line: Pirates +130; Brewers -1.5 +155.

    How are the Brewers only -140 on the regular money line? Makes no sense. They're so underrated; I feel like taking a 16-to-1 shot that they're going to win the World Series. Tom Gorzelanny's been good and has screwed me thrice this season, but he surrendered five earned runs in his previous outing against Cincinnati. Maybe teams have finally broken through on this guy. I don't think he's that good.

  • Tom Gorzelanny (L) is 3-0; 2.79 ERA; 1.14 WHIP; +4.2 Units on the road.
  • Dave Bush (R) is 1-1; 5.79 ERA; 1.07 WHIP; 0 Units at home.

    Prediction: Brewers -1.5 +155.
    Incorrect; -$100


    Wednesday, May 2, 2007 (2-1, +$185)



    Baltimore Orioles (12-15) at Detroit Tigers (15-11).
    Line: Orioles +150; Tigers -1.5 +125.

    Stupid Tigers. They were up 5-3 in the top of the ninth, but surrendered one run to make yesterday's bet a loser. Anyway, I was asking one of my friends about the disparity between Steve Trachsel's home and road stats (1-0; 1.46 ERA; 0.97 WHIP as a host). The prospect of Alzheimer's came up. He's pretty old, so, maybe whenever he goes to a different city he gets lost or something. Can you imagine the fire and police departments looking for this guy in the streets of Detroit? How can the Tigers possibly lose?

  • Steve Trachsel (R) is 0-2; 6.18 ERA; 1.50 WHIP; -3 Units on the road.
  • Nate Robertson (L) is 1-0; 3.79 ERA; 1.21 WHIP; -2 Units at home.

    Prediction: Tigers -1.5 +125.
    Incorrect; -$100




    St. Louis Cardinals (10-15) at Milwaukee Brewers (17-9).
    Line: Cardinals +135; Brewers -1.5 +145.

    The fact that the Cardinals and Anthony Reyes are both crappy only helps matters, as this matchup is a classic "overrated vs. underrated." St. Louis is -7.6 Units this year, while Milwaukee is +8.8. Plus, the Cardinals are in disarray in the wake of the death of their reliever.

  • Anthony Reyes (R) is 0-2; 5.73 ERA; 1.18 WHIP; -2 Units on the road.
  • Chris Capuano (L) is 3-0; 4.96 ERA; 1.34 WHIP; +3 Units at home.

    Prediction: Brewers -1.5 +145.
    Correct; +$145




    Colorado Rockies (11-16) at San Francisco Giants (13-12).
    Line: Rockies +140; Giants -1.5 +140.

    I have no idea how the Giants lost to the Rockies last night, but if they win today, we'll be 2-1 in this series. And just like in regular baseball, we're just trying to win series here. Jeff Francis' road stats don't look too horrendous because he's only pitched in one. His last two starts at home have been awful: He has allowed 24 hits and 10 earned runs in less than 12 innings of work.

  • Jeff Francis (L) is 1-0; 2.70 ERA; 1.20 WHIP; +1.3 Units on the road.
  • Barry Zito (L) is 1-2; 4.91 ERA; 1.36 WHIP; -1.5 Units at home.

    Prediction: Giants -1.5 +140.
    Correct; +$140


    Tuesday, May 1, 2007 (0-2, -$200)



    Baltimore Orioles (12-14) at Detroit Tigers (14-11).
    Line: Orioles +115; Tigers -1.5 +155.

    Some facts about Adam Loewen: He has pitched well this year, but he has never made it past the sixth inning. In fact, he eclipsed five innings just twice. His most recent stint as a visitor was a six-run, five-walk fiasco at Tampa Bay. Unfortuantely, his team won that day, 9-7. I think we can conclude that Loewen is a crappy road pitcher on a crappy road team. Chad Durbin's numbers don't look good, but keep in mind he's coming off eight scoreless innings at Chicago.

  • Adam Loewen (L) is 1-0; 6.23 ERA; 1.85 WHIP; +3.3 Units on the road.
  • Chad Durbin (R) is 0-0; 7.20 ERA; 1.40 WHIP; -1.1 Units at home.

    Prediction: Tigers -1.5 +155.
    Incorrect; -$100




    Colorado Rockies (10-16) at San Francisco Giants (13-11).
    Line: Rockies +120; Giants -1.5 +155.

    One thing that has really disturbed me this season is Russ Ortiz's comeback. If you don't remember, the overweight Ortiz was one of the worst pitchers in baseball last year and was an instant "bet-against" every time he took the mound. Well, he's doing well this year, so we can take him tonight against a crappy road team featuring a crappy hurler.

    That said, I can't believe I'm betting on Ortiz tonight. Someone please shoot me now.

  • Taylor Buchholz (R) is 0-1; 7.20 ERA; 1.40 WHIP; -1 Units on the road.
  • Russ Ortiz (R) is 1-1; 3.75 ERA; 1.67 WHIP; 0 Units at home.

    Prediction: Giants -1.5 +155.
    Incorrect; -$100


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