Free Baseball Picks

Atlanta Braves (29-26) at Cincinnati Reds (26-29)
Line: Braves -135; Reds +125.

Ugh, what a terrible day, picking-wise. I'm embarrassed. The Cubs somehow fell behind 8-1; the Orioles screwed up tons of opportunities to walk off with a victory in extra innings; and the Reds won but couldn't cover the run line. Ugh.

Trying to redeem myself here with the Reds again. Atlanta is now 7-19 on the road. Josh Fogg's numbers suck, but he's not really that bad.

Prediction: Reds 6, Braves 5
Reds +125 (3 Units) -- Correct; +$375


Boston Red Sox (33-24) at Baltimore Orioles (26-27)
Line: Red Sox -130; Orioles +120.

Continuing to fade the Red Sox on the road; they're just 12-19 in away games. Jon Lester struggled after his no-hitter, so I expect that to continue.

Prediction: Orioles 5, Red Sox 4
Orioles +120 (2 Units) -- Incorrect; -$200

Colorado Rockies (20-34) at Chicago Cubs (33-21)
Line: Rockies +130; Cubs -1.5 +140.

The Rockies suck on the road. I know Aaron Cook is doing great this year, but we're getting great value with Chicago's run line. The Cubs can hit anyone, and while Cook has a solid 2.82 ERA, I don't consider him invincible.

Prediction: Cubs 7, Rockies 3
Cubs -1.5 +140 (3 Units) -- Incorrect; -$300


Boston Red Sox (32-24) at Baltimore Orioles (26-26)
Line: Red Sox -140; Orioles +130.

Continuing to fade the Red Sox on the road; they're just 11-19 in away games. The jetlag has to be getting to them too, as they just lost a series in Seattle.

Prediction: Orioles 3, Red Sox 2
Orioles +130 (3 Units) -- Incorrect; -$300


Atlanta Braves (29-25) at Cincinnati Reds (25-29)
Line: Braves +145; Reds -1.5 +140.

Well, well, well... I guess the Braves had to win a road game at some point. I doubt they can do it twice in a row. Once again, fading a solid pitcher, but that's where we're getting our value from.

Prediction: Reds 4, Braves 0
Reds -1.5 +140 (2 Units) -- Incorrect; -$200


Washington Nationals (23-32) at Arizona Diamondbacks (30-24)
Line: Nationals +160; Diamondbacks -1.5 +120.

I like the idea of taking the Diamondbacks at a solid price here. We can do that because they've dropped four in a row, and the Nats are putting their best pitcher out on the mound. Washington sucks on the road though, so I expect them to lose tonight.

Prediction: Diamondbacks 6, Nationals 1
Diamondbacks -1.5 +120 (2 Units) -- Incorrect; -$200

Atlanta Braves (28-25) at Milwaukee Brewers (26-27)
Line: Braves -105; Brewers -105.

The Braves are now 6-18 on the road. Hooray for ineptness!

Prediction: Brewers 3, Braves 2
Brewers -105 (2 Units) -- Incorrect; -$200


Washington Nationals (23-31) at San Diego Padres (20-34)
Line: Nationals +115; Padres -1.5 +180.

The Nationals are another bad road team, but that's expected. Fortunately, they're playing another terrible squad, so we're getting a lot of value against them.

Prediction: Padres 5, Nationals 2
Padres -1.5 +180 (1.5 Units) -- Correct; +$270

Atlanta Braves (28-24) at Milwaukee Brewers (25-27)
Line: Braves +105; Brewers -115.

The Braves are now 6-17 on the road. Hooray for ineptness!

Prediction: Brewers 5, Braves 4
Brewers -115 (2 Units) -- Correct; +$200


Detroit Tigers (21-31) at Los Angeles Angels (32-22)
Line: Tigers +115; Angels -1.5 +165.

The Angels run line was the only play I missed on last night. However, I'm confident it'll cash here; the Tigers suck on the road and the Angels' Joe Saunders has been unhittable this year.

Prediction: Angels 7, Tigers 2
Angels -1.5 +165 (2 Units) -- Incorrect; -$200


Boston Red Sox (32-23) at Seattle Mariners (19-34)
Line: Red Sox +100; Mariners -110.

Sure, it seems nuts that the Mariners would snap their seven-game losing streak against Dice-K, but then again the Red Sox are just 11-18 on the road.

Prediction: Mariners 2, Red Sox 1
Mariners -110 (2 Units) -- Correct; +$200

Colorado Rockies (20-31) at Philadelphia Phillies (29-24)
Line: Rockies +160; Phillies -1.5 +105.

Going with the hot Phillies and fading the slumping Rockies again. Philadelphia always gives Kyle Kendrick run support and should have no problem doing so against Ubaldo Jimenez.

Prediction: Phillies 9, Rockies 5
Phillies -1.5 +105 (2 Units) -- Correct; +$210


Atlanta Braves (28-23) at Milwaukee Brewers (24-27)
Line: Braves -130; Brewers +120.

The Braves are coming off a tough series against the Diamondbacks, and may not be focused against the lowly Brewers. Atlanta sucks on the road (6-16).

Prediction: Brewers 5, Braves 4
Brewers +120 (3 Units) -- Correct; +360


Detroit Tigers (21-30) at Los Angeles Angels (31-22)
Line: Tigers +125; Angels -1.5 +160.

The Tigers are another poor road team. Jeremy Bonderman hasn't been terrible in a visiting role, but I have to believe he'll regress to the rest of his team's futility sooner or later.

Prediction: Angels 6, Tigers 2
Angels -1.5 +160 (2 Units) -- Incorrect; -$200

Colorado Rockies (20-30) at Philadelphia Phillies (28-24)
Line: Rockies +155; Phillies -1.5 +110.

My baseball picks once again sucked, but I think I may have something here despite the 1-2 effort. We'll see how I do this upcoming week.

I like the Phillies tonight. They give Jamie Moyer plenty of run support against crappy pitchers, and you better believe Jorge De La Rose is craptastic.

Prediction: Phillies 10, Rockies 5
Phillies -1.5 +110 (2 Units) -- Correct; +$220


Boston Red Sox (31-22) at Seattle Mariners (18-33)
Line: Red Sox -105; Mariners -105.

It really surprised me when I discovered that the Red Sox are just 10-17 on the road. That gives us tons of value with the Mariners, even though they're complete garbage.

Prediction: Mariners 6, Red Sox 5
Mariners -105 (3 Units) -- Incorrect; -$315

Seattle Mariners (18-32) at New York Yankees (24-25)
Line: Mariners +210; Yankees -1.5 -115.

I said it two days ago, and I don't know why I didn't stick with it. The Yankees are a huge value play right now because they'll be able to hit with A-Rod back in the lineup. I don't expect the Mariners to have much success against Chuck Wang.

Prediction: Yankees 11, Mariners 1
Yankees -1.5 -115 (2 Units) -- Incorrect; -$230


Minnesota Twins (24-25) at Detroit Tigers (21-28)
Line: Twins +160; Tigers -1.5 +110.

A year ago, I never would have imagined we'd get tons of value on the Tigers and Justin Verlander, but that's what we're getting here. People still think Verlander is struggling, but he's looked sharp in his past two outings. The Twins, who suck on the road, won't be able to hit him.

Prediction: Tigers 8, Twins 3
Tigers -1.5 +110 (3 Units) -- Incorrect; -$300


Cincinnati Reds (23-27) at San Diego Padres (18-33)
Line: Reds +115; Padres -1.5 +170.

The Padres are one of the worst teams in the history of baseball (or so it seems like), but I like them today because I can't see the Reds winning three road games in a row. Cincinnati is just 9-18 away from home.

Prediction: Padres 6, Reds 3
Padres -1.5 +170 (2 Units) -- Correct; +$340

Los Angeles Angels (29-21) at Chicago White Sox (26-21)
Line: Angels +115; White Sox -1.5 +180.

I like the White Sox again despite their loss yesterday. They could have easily won, as they stranded numerous men on base. They should have better luck against Jered Weaver, who is 1-3 with a 7.76 ERA on the road this year.

Prediction: White Sox 7, Angels 3
White Sox -1.5 +180 (2 Units) -- Incorrect; -$200


San Francisco Giants (20-29) at Florida Marlins (27-20)
Line: Giants +100; Marlins -1.5 +185.

The Giants are a joke. I actually know someone who has faded them every game this year and has made out pretty well. They're 9-14 on the road, with seven of those losses being by more than one run, meaning the run line comes into effect. After watching them obtain a rare road victory I feel confident fading them.

Prediction: Marlins 6, Giants 1
Marlins -1.5 +185 (2 Units) -- No action; game postponed


Milwaukee Brewers (22-26) at Washington Nationals (21-28)
Line: Brewers +105; Nationals -1.5 +180.

Like the Giants, the Brewers stink on the road too (11-17). And I can't believe they're putting Seth McClung on the mound. He's a junk pitcher who doesn't even compare to one of the Beatles. I'd rather have Paul McCartney, but I don't mind putting my money on John Lannan.

Prediction: Nationals 6, Brewers 2
Nationals -1.5 +180 (2 Units) -- Incorrect; -$200

Seattle Mariners (18-30) at New York Yankees (22-25)
Line: Mariners +105; Yankees -1.5 +180.

OK, I'm going to try something new. I've been tracking a few different strategies, I think I found one that may be lucrative. Remember, I struggled with NBA picks until I found something that worked.

There's a lot of value with the Yankees right now; everyone's down on them but with A-Rod back in the lineup, they should be able to get over .500 in no time.

Prediction: Yankees 6, Mariners 2
Yankees -1.5 +180 (2 Units) -- Correct; +$360


Los Angeles Angels (28-21) at Chicago White Sox (26-20)
Line: Angels +105; White Sox -1.5 +190.

The White Sox are so hot right now, they're completely killing everyone. Gavin Floyd is unhittable, especially at home (0.831 WHIP).

Prediction: White Sox 5, Angels 1
White Sox -1.5 +190 (2 Units) -- Incorrect; -$200


St, Louis Cardinals (28-21) at Los Angeles Dodgers (25-21)
Line: Cardinals +110; Dodgers -1.5 +180.

The Dodgers are another hot team with a pitcher (Derek Lowe) who should be able to get back on the right track after four poor starts.

Prediction: Dodgers 4, Cardinals 1
Dodgers -1.5 +180 (2 Units) -- Incorrect; -$200

New York Mets (22-22)
Team Total: Over 4 +105.

The Mets' offense has gotten completely debacled the past couple of days, which gets me thinking that they're going to turn things around. But Tim Hudson's on the mound! That shouldn't matter, as New York has averaged more than seven runs against him since 2005.

Prediction: Mets 7, Braves 3
Mets Over 4 Runs +105 (2 Units) -- Incorrect; -$200


Texas Rangers (23-25)
Team Total: Under 4 +105.

Speaking of being debacled, what happened to the Twins' pitching? They had Texas locked down except for one inning in the middle of the game last night. The Rangers scored seven runs, thanks to an error (the out would have ended the inning with only one run on the board). I'm still not convinced Texas can keep this up. Livan Hernandez should be able to put the clamps on their offense.

Prediction: Twins 5, Rangers 2
Rangers Under 4 Runs +105 (3 Units) -- Incorrect; -$300

Oakland Athletics (24-23)
Team Total: Over 4 +100.

Getting Oakland's over team total wrong yesterday should make me scared about taking it again. But I'm not. I'm actually more encouraged that the Athletics will break out of their slump. They were able to get on base yesterday but just couldn't advance the runners. Well, they won't be facing Scott Kazmir this afternoon.

Prediction: Athletics 8, Rays 7
Athletics Over 4 Runs +100 (3 Units) -- Correct; +$300


Cleveland Indians (22-23)
Team Total: Over 3.5 -120.

What I said about the Athletics can be applied to the Indians. They're due to get on a hot offensive streak. They haven't had much success against Javier Vazquez in the past, which means going with them is a good idea (using a contrarian way of handicapping).

Prediction: White Sox 8, Indians 6
Indians Over 3.5 Runs -120 (2 Units) -- Incorrect; -$240


Texas Rangers (22-25)
Team Total: Under 4 +100.

Texas' loss yesterday should be the first of many. The team is not that talented, yet has overachieved in the early stages of the season. They won't be able to hit Nate Blackburn, whom they've never seen.

Prediction: Twins 7, Rangers 2
Rangers Under 4 Runs +100 (2 Units) -- Incorrect; -$200

Cincinnati Reds (22-23)
Team Total: Under 3.5 +105.

Strange that a hot offensive club like the Reds has a team total of only 3.5. I think they're about due to come back down to Earth; they're not a talented team. Chad Billingsley has pitched well lately, so he should be able to lock down the mediocre Reds.

Prediction: Dodgers 5, Reds 1
Reds Under 3.5 Runs +105 (2 Units) -- Correct; +$210


Cleveland Indians (22-22)
Team Total: Over 4 -120.

I won with the Indians-Over on Sunday, and I hope to do so again tonight. It just seems like Cleveland's bound to get on a roll. By the way, what's with these weird start times? 8:11? If this game begins at 8:12 can I get my money back?

Prediction: Indians 6, White Sox 4
Indians Over 4 Runs -120 (2 Units) -- Incorrect; -$240


Oakland Athletics (24-22)
Team Total: Over 3.5 -105.

Though the Athletics lost yesterday, they seemed to break out of their offensive slump. Their bats will once again be active tonight, despite going against Scott Kazmir Sweater.

Prediction: Athletics 7, Rays 5
Athletics Over 3.5 Runs -105 (2 Units) -- Incorrect; -$210

Texas Rangers (22-23)
Team Total: Under 4 +100.

I find it very odd that a hot offensive club like the Rangers have a team total of just four in a home run-friendly stadium and against a mediocre pitcher named Boof. Boof goes seven, locks down the Rangers and doesn't answer any questions after the game about why his parents hated him as a baby.

Prediction: Twins 3, Rangers 1
Rangers Under 4 Runs +100 (2 Units) -- Incorrect; -$200


Oakland Athletics (24-21)
Team Total: Over 3.5 -115.

The Athletics have been in an offensive slump, but I have to think they'll get their act together sooner or later. I have a feeling it'll be soon.

Prediction: Rays 8, Athletics 5
Athletics Over 3.5 Runs -115 (2 Units) -- Correct; +$200

Cleveland Indians (22-20)
Team Total: Over 3.5 -125.

I've decided to change up what I'm doing because the strategy I'm using only depends on one team's offensive production. So, it makes sense to do it this way. The Indians are due for an offensive outburst soon, and after two straight losses to the Reds, they could have one this afternoon.

Prediction: Indians 6, Reds 2
Indians Over 3.5 Runs -125 (2 Units) -- Correct; +$200


Baltimore Orioles (23-19)
Team Total: Under 4.5 -110.

On the other side of the spectrum, my calculations say that Baltimore's offense is going to regress very soon. They've never seen John Lannan (or Ringo Star for that matter), and they don't hit southpaws as well as righties.

Prediction: Nationals 3, Orioles 2
Orioles Under 4.5 Runs -110 (2 Units) -- Correct; +$200


Colorado Rockies (16-27)
Team Total: Over 5 +100.

Odd that a team that hasn't scored more than five runs since May 8 is seeing its team total at that figure. I guess that should tell us what's going to happen in this game.

Prediction: Rockies 8, Twins 7
Rockies Over 5 Runs +100 (2 Units) -- Correct; +$200


Chicago White Sox (22-20)
Team Total: Over 4 +100.

Another team just itching to break out of an offensive slump is Chicago. They should be able to score more than four runs against mediocre Matt Cain with ease.

Prediction: White Sox 7, Giants 1
White Sox Over 4 Runs +100 (2 Units) -- Correct; +$200


Seattle Mariners (17-27)
Team Total: Under 4.5 -115.

Five plays is a lot, I know. But I'm trying something out that I believe will work, so just hang with me. The Mariners don't give Felix Hernandez any run support, a trend which will once again rear its ugly head this afternoon. Seattle is due for a letdown.

Prediction: Padres 3, Mariners 2
Mariners Under 4.5 Runs -115 (2 Units) -- Correct; +$200

Cleveland Indians (22-20) at Cincinnati Reds (19-23)
Line: Indians +105; Reds -115.

In a way, I was right about Cincinnati's offense struggling. Four runs isn't anything to write home about. I still can't believe the Indians walked in the winning run. Whatever. I like Cleveland even more this afternoon.

Prediction: Indians 4, Reds 1
Indians +105 (3 Units) -- Incorrect; -$300


Toronto Blue Jays (21-23) at Philadelphia Phillies (24-19)
Line: Blue Jays -105; Phillies -105.

OK, so, I was dead wrong about this game yesterday. Maybe I should have thought twice about taking a pitcher who walked seven batters in four innings in his only major league start. I'm much more confident with A.J. Burnett on the mound.

Prediction: Blue Jays 7, Phillies 4
Blue Jays -105 (2 Units) -- Correct; +$200


Minnesota Twins (21-20) at Colorado Rockies (15-27)
Line: Twins +115; Rockies -1.5 +150.

This is weird. The Twins, an AL squad with a better record, who happens to be sending 6-1 Livan Hernandez to the mound against the crappy Rockies and Greg Reynolds (6.35 ERA) are +115? Huh!? Well, according to my figures, Colorado is due for an offensive rampage, so hopefully I'm right.

Prediction: Rockies 9, Twins 3
Rockies -1.5 +150 (2 Units) -- Incorrect; -$200

Toronto Blue Jays (21-22) at Philadelphia Phillies (23-19)
Line: Blue Jays +115; Phillies -125.

Only 1-2 yesterday, but I'm not discouraged; the other two games that fit what I'm doing both won (Dodgers and Diamondbacks Run Line). I was just unfortunate enough to pick three that didn't become a winning proposition for me.

Toronto's sweep of the Twins in the Homer Dome wasn't a fluke; they're starting to hit to their abilities. And I find it a bit suspicious that the Phillies are just -125 hosts over a losing team.

Prediction: Blue Jays 6, Phillies 5
Blue Jays +115 (2 Units) -- Incorrect; -$200


Cleveland Indians (22-19) at Cincinnati Reds (18-23)
Line: Indians +110; Reds -120.

Talk about the wrong time to face the Indians. Cleveland's starters aren't allowing anything, meaning the Reds could have major problems tonight. I know they just beat up Florida's staff, but they're way overdue for a few letdowns. They're going to struggle offensively this weekend.

Prediction: Indians 6, Reds 0
Indians +110 (2 Units) -- Incorrect; -$200

Oakland Athletics (23-18) at Cleveland Indians (21-19)
Line: Athletics +130; Indians -140.

Why is this game starting at noon? Doesn't Bud Selig realize that the majority of the people who will be watching this game (degenerate gamblers in college) won't be awake yet? Great move, Bud.

At any rate, I'm going with the Athletics. They're due for a solid offensive performance, and I'm not sure who this Laffey Taffey character is to be laying -140.

Prediction: Athletics 7, Indians 3
Athletics +130 (2 Units) -- Incorrect; -$200


Toronto Blue Jays (20-22) at Minnesota Twins (20-19)
Line: Blue Jays -115; Twins +105.

Might as well stick with what's working, though the Jays didn't cover the run line last night. How did Roy Halladay fail to hold a 4-0 lead?

Prediction: Blue Jays 6, Twins 2
Blue Jays -115 (2 Units) -- Correct; +$200


Detroit Tigers (16-24) at Kansas City Royals (18-21)
Line: Tigers -105; Royals -105.

The Tigers are tumbling, so I've been waiting for a perfect opportunity to pounce on them at a solid price. This is it. They're going to break out of their slump. Gil Paper Meche is strugg-a-ling at home.

Prediction: Tigers 10, Royals 5
Tigers -105 (2 Units) -- Incorrect; -$210

Los Angeles Dodgers (19-19) at Milwaukee Brewers (20-19)
Line: Dodgers +100; Brewers -110.

I actually had a winning day, so maybe I'm on to something here. The Dodgers have gone cold, having lost five in a row. Milwaukee, meanwhile, winners of three straight, are only -110 at home versus the struggling visitor. Doesn't seem to make sense to me.

Prediction: Dodgers 7, Brewers 2
Dodgers +100 (2 Units) -- Correct; +$200


San Diego Padres (15-25) at Chicago Cubs (23-16)
Line: Padres -105; Cubs -105.

I feel as though we're getting great value with the Cubbies here; the only reason why they're -105 is because Jake Peavy is on the mound for San Diego. Sounds intimidating, I know, but the Padres are only 4-4 with Peavy on the hill. And to top it off, Peavy has a 4.58 road ERA. Chicago's offense, due for a breakout performance, is skilled enough to hit any pitcher in the majors.

Prediction: Cubs 6, Padres 3
Cubs -105 (2 Units) -- Correct; +$200


Toronto Blue Jays (19-22) at Minnesota Twins (20-18)
Line: Blue Jays -1.5 +140; Twins +120.

Going with Toronto again - I still think the Twins are going to be flat after taking three of four from Boston, and I believe the Blue Jays are due to go on a hot streak.

Prediction: Blue Jays 5, Twins 1
Blue Jays -1.5 +140 (2 Units) -- Incorrect; -$200

Colorado Rockies (15-23) at Arizona Diamondbacks (23-15)
Line: Rockies +120; Diamondbacks -1.5 +165.

I've been brutal in baseball recently, so I'm going to change up my strategy a bit. The Diamondbacks have shared in my ineptness, but I have a feeling they're due for a break-out game.

Prediction: Diamondbacks 8, Rockies 5
Diamondbacks -1.5 +165 (1 Unit) -- Correct; +$165


Seattle Mariners (15-25) at Texas Rangers (19-21)
Line: Mariners -1.5 +140; Rangers +110.

Texas is on fire offensively, but I don't think they can keep up their pace. I also find it interesting that the host, which happens to have the better record (and pitcher with a superior ERA) is an underdog to the visitor.

Prediction: Mariners 4, Rangers 1
Mariners -1.5 +140 (2 Units) -- Incorrect; -$200


Toronto Blue Jays (18-22) at Minnesota Twins (20-17)
Line: Blue Jays +105; Twins -115.

I can't see the Twins being too focused here after knocking off the Red Sox in three of four games. Toronto's bats are bound to come alive against the inept Kaitlin Slowey.

Prediction: Blue Jays 6, Twins 2
Blue Jays +110 (2 Units) -- Correct; +$220

Florida Marlins (23-14) at Cincinnati Reds (15-23)
Line: Marlins +155; Reds -165.

I'm going to jump on the Florida Marlins bandwagon before anyone else. It's ridiculous that they're this much of an underdog. And this isn't a trap line - they were underdogs every single game this weekend at Washington. I'm pissed off that I haven't been picking them. Well, I'm done making that mistake.

Prediction: Marlins 7, Reds 5
Marlins +155 (1 Unit) -- Incorrect; -$100


Boston Red Sox (24-16) at Minnesota Twins (19-17)
Line: Red Sox -120; Twins +110.

It says Livan Hernandez is 33, but would anyone be surprised if he was really in his late 30s or even his early 50s? Nope. Hernandez just went nine innings in his most recent start, so I think he'll struggle tonight. Hernandez has a habit of pitching poorly after going eight or more innings. On the other side, Clay Bucholz seems like a sharp guy, so he should be able to throw well off a rough start.

Prediction: Red Sox 6, Twins 3
Red Sox -120 (1 Unit) -- Incorrect; -$120


Chicago White Sox (18-18) at Los Angeles Angels (22-17)
Line: White Sox -105; Angels -105.

The White Sox have won three of four and have a chance to continue their hot streak with Mark Buehrle on the mound tonight. Buehrle, one of the better pitchers in the majors, is coming off a rotten performance. He has a great history of rebounding well, so I like the White Sox tonight, who should be able to pound Angels rightie Nicole Adenhart into submission.

Prediction: White Sox 9, Angels 3
White Sox -105 (2 Units) -- Incorrect; -$210

Colorado Rockies (15-21*) at San Diego Padres (12-24*)
Line: Rockies +135; Padres -145.

Chris Young has been known to bounce back strong off poor outings. He'll pitch well Sunday afternoon. I don't know if San Diego can outscore the Rockies and some unknown pitcher, but I feel good knowing we're going to get Young's best stuff.

Prediction: Padres 3, Rockies 2
Padres -145 (2 Units) -- Correct; +$200

Los Angeles Angels (22-15) at Tampa Bay Rays (19-16)
Line: Angels +110; Rays -120.

I don't like what I saw out of Scott Kazmir in his first start. He just doesn't look ready to pitch. Joe Saunders (2.61 ERA, 1.097 WHIP) should be able to keep the Rays off the board. Tampa Bay is averaging 4.6 runs per game on the year, but that number is down to 3.9 in the past week. Maybe they're coming back down to Earth.

Prediction: Angels 6, Rays 3
Angels +110 (2 Units) -- Incorrect; -$200


Oakland Athletics (22-15) at Texas Rangers (17-20)
Line: Athletics -105; Rangers -105.

I went against Kevin Millwood a couple of days ago because he was coming off a couple of terrible performances. Millwood is a snowball pitcher; whenever things go bad, everything seems to go wrong for him.

Prediction: Athletics 8, Rangers 2
Athletics -105 (2 Units) -- Incorrect; -$210


Colorado Rockies (15-21) at San Diego Padres (12-24)
Line: Rockies +105; Padres -115.

It's amazing that Greg Maddux is still pitching well. He's coming off a terrible start, but he has a history of rebounding off poor outings. Colorado's Ubaldo Jimenez has control issues, so the Padres will get about four or five walks this evening, which should allow them to get some runs on the board for a change.

Prediction: Padres 5, Rockies 1
Padres -115 (2 Units) -- Correct; +$200

Baltimore Orioles (17-18) at Kansas City Royals (15-19)
Line: Orioles +130; Royals -140.

I can't believe I'm betting the Royals at -140, but that's the price we're going to have to lay to fade Steve Trachsel. Trachsel is one of the worst pitchers in baseball right now. Another bad start could spell the end for the 37-year-old cheese-baller, so this could be our final chance to bet against him. I think I'm about to cry.

Prediction: Royals 7, Orioles 3
Royals -140 (1 Unit) -- Incorrect; -$140


Houston Astros (18-17) at Los Angeles Dodgers (19-15)
Line: Astros +165; Dodgers -1.5 +125.

Derek Lowe is a strong-willed pitcher and usually rebounds extremely well off stinkers. He'll do great against the Astros, who hit just .224 on the road. As for Houston, I don't know why they're going with Brian Moehler. He's a junk pitcher who can't strike anyone out. The Dodgers hit extremely well at home, so I don't feel hesitant about betting the run line.

Prediction: Dodgers 10, Astros 2
Dodgers -1.5 +125 (2 Units) -- Incorrect; -$200

Philadelphia Phillies (20-15) at Arizona Diamondbacks (22-12)
Line: Phillies +145; Diamondbacks -155.

You know what pisses me off? I make my picks the night before so readers can check them out as soon as possible. Well, I took the Giants, thinking some rookie pitcher was taking the hill. Well, San Francisco switched him out in favor of Baked Zito. While it probably wouldn't have mattered because the Giants scored only one run, I definitely wouldn't have picked them if I knew Zito was starting. From now on, I'm going to recheck pitching matchups the day of. I learned my lesson.

I think the Phillies have a great chance of winning this afternoon despite Brandon Webb's pristine 7-0 record. Webb is a remarkable pitcher, don't get me wrong, but his numbers might be skewed just a bit. Webb has beaten the Mets, Padres, Giants (twice), Rockies (twice) and the Reds. I'm going to exclude the Mets because Webb surrendered four earned runs in five innings. The other squads Webb defeated can't hit at all. Only Colorado averages more than four runs per game, and they're only at 4.4.

The Phillies have one of the top lineups in the majors and hit righties especially well. They have a solid shot behind Brett Myers.

Prediction: Phillies 4, Diamondbacks 3
Phillies +145 (1 Unit) -- Incorrect; -$100


Boston Red Sox (22-14) at Detroit Tigers (14-21)
Line: Red Sox -125; Tigers +115.

Your basic fade of Justin Verlander, who has been an abomination this year, and now has to go up against one of the top lineups in the majors. Good luck with all that.

Prediction: Red Sox 9, Tigers 5
Red Sox -125 (1 Unit) -- Correct; +$100


Texas Rangers (15-20) at Seattle Mariners (14-21)
Line: Rangers +150; Mariners -160.

Felix Hernandez is coming off one of his worst outings of the year. He has a history of rebounding well, so I'm expecting a solid performance from him tonight. Meanwhile, Texas' Kason Gabbard seldom strikes anyone out. The Mariners also have a low strikeout total, so they should be able to put a lot of balls in play. Hopefully that materializes into something.

Prediction: Mariners 4, Rangers 0
Mariners -160 (1 Unit) -- Incorrect; -$160

San Francisco Giants (14-19) at Pittsburgh Pirates (13-19)
Line: Giants +105; Pirates -115.

It's an absolute joke that Phillip Dumatrait is pitching tonight. In seven big-league starts, Dumatrait has lasted longer than 4.2 innings only once. In one of his starts, he surrendered three home runs - without even recording a single out. The Pirates are coming off one of their double-digit outputs, meaning they may have trouble putting runs on the board tonight.

Prediction: Giants 7, Pirates 3
Giants +105 (2 Units) -- Incorrect; -$200

Milwaukee Brewers (16-15) at Florida Marlins (17-14)
Line: Brewers +110; Marlins -120.

Yesterday I faded two snowball pitchers. Jeff Suppan, like Kevin "The Human Dorito" Millwood and Javier Vazquez, is coming off a horrific performance, but he has a history of rebounding well from adversity. The Brewers have lost three in a row at Houston, but I blame that on a lack of energy after they took two of three from the Cubs. Milwaukee should be able to get back on track against the Marlins, an overrated team as far as I'm concerned.

Prediction: Brewers 4, Marlins 2
Brewers +110 (2 Units) -- Incorrect; -$200


Boston Red Sox (21-13) at Detroit Tigers (14-19)
Line: Red Sox +100; Tigers -110.

A small play on the Red Sox. What in the world happened to Nate Robertson? He used to be a pretty solid pitcher. This year, he's given up at least four earned runs every single game he has pitched. Seems like a good fade if you can play the other side as the underdog. Meanwhile, Tim Wakefield has lost to Detroit just once since June 1999. He's 6-1 against the team since that time, which includes a three-hit, one-earned run victory against them this April.

Prediction: Red Sox 8, Tigers 4
Red Sox +100 (1 Unit) -- Correct; +$100

Chicago White Sox (14-15) at Toronto Blue Jays (15-17)
Line: White Sox +100; Blue Jays -110.

Javier Vazquez is coming off his worst outing of the year, which spells trouble for Chicago. Vazquez is what I like to call a snowball pitcher; once things start going wrong for him, the wheels come off. That sort of matches how the White Sox are playing right now; they've lost five in a row. The suddenly hot Blue Jays seldom strike out against righties, which matches up favorably for them because Vazquez's strikeout totals are down in his past two outings. Chicago, meanwhile, hasn't scored more than three runs snce April 27.

Prediction: Blue Jays 6, White Sox 2
Blue Jays -110 (3 Units) -- Correct; +$300


Texas Rangers (13-19) at Seattle Mariners (13-19)
Line: Rangers +120; Mariners -130.

Like Javier Vazquez, Kevin Millwood is a snowball pitcher. Once the festively plump Millwood goes into a swoon, he drowns himself in Cheetos and cupcakes on his off days, and allows runs every single inning. Jarrod Washburn is the opposite; coming off a poor outing, he usually bounces back well. Both of these teams have sucked enough to compile 13-19 records, but I have to believe Seattle will get out of its losing streak. The Rangers are just terrible, especially on the road.

Prediction: Mariners 5, Rangers 3
Mariners -130 (2 Units) -- Correct; +$200

San Diego Padres (12-19) at Florida Marlins (16-14)
Line: Padres -120; Marlins +110.

I'm not buying into Florida. The only reason the Marlins are only +110 with this gargantuan pitching mismatch is because they're 16-14. Well, if you look at the stats over the past eight games, they're actually averaging less runs per contest than the Padres are in the same time period. These teams are about even, so laying -120 with Greg Maddux is tremendous value.

Florida's Andrew Miller is pitching like he's about to have a George Minkowski-like brain aneurysm. Out of his six starts this season, four have been very poor at best. This shouldn't be surprising, as he closed out the 2007 campaign with three terrible efforts. Miller needs to be sent down to the minors, and he may be headed that way if he gets "debacled" this afternoon.

Prediction: Padres 6, Marlins 1
Padres -120 (2 Units) -- Incorrect; -$240


Milwaukee Brewers (16-14) at Houston Astros (15-16)
Line: Brewers -155; Astros +145.

Talk about symmetry - Ben Sheets was 7-1 against the Astros in his first eight games against them in his career. However, he has struggled recently, going 1-7 when playing his NL Central rival in the previous eight clashes. It looks like Houston has his number. Statistically, Chris Sampson looks like the worse pitcher in this matchup. He is, but his numbers (1-3, 7.15 ERA) don't indicate what sort of pitcher he is. He screwed up in two outings - the other three were solid - and he'scoming off a 5-run letdown at Arizona. Sampson has rebounded well in the past off horrendous outings, so here's to hoping history repeats itself.

Prediction: Astros 5, Brewers 4
Astros +145 (2 Units) -- Correct; +$290


Chicago Cubs (18-12) at St. Louis Cardinals (19-12)
Line: Cubs +105; Cardinals -115.

The Cubs have the better offense and the pitching matchup looks even on paper. Chicago's Jason Marquis is coming off a 10-hit, 5-run outing against the Brewers, in what was his first huge clunker of the year. That bodes well for Mark Cuban's future team, as Marquis has historically rebounded off poor performances.

Prediction: Cubs 3, Cardinals 1
Cubs +105 (1 Unit) -- Incorrect; -$100

Pittsburgh Pirates (12-17) at Washington Nationals (12-18)
Line: Pirates +100; Nationals -110.

I love the Nats here for a number of reasons. Paul Maholm is coming off a complete game. Good news, right? Not so much - when coming off a complete game in his career, Maholm has an ERA of 9.81 and a 1.73 WHIP the following outing. Not so hot. Also, the Pirates just scored 11 runs. Following a double-digit run performance, Pittsburgh has averaged two runs per contest the following day.

Matt Chico's numbers suck (0-5, 6.68 ERA, 1.67 WHIP) but those are based on his past three appearances. He was terrible against the Mets, but he wasn't so bad in the other two outings; he allowed one homerun and walked a total of five batters in those games. He was just a victim of a lot of ground balls getting through the infield. Chico should be able to find better luck versus a weaker lineup.

Prediction: Nationals 7, Pirates 3
Nationals -110 (3 Units) -- Correct; +$300


Baltimore Orioles (16-13) at Los Angeles Angels (18-13)
Line: Orioles +115; Angels -125.

Taking a small play here with the Angels. Jonny Garland usually performs well after a terrible outing, and the Orioles are a sub-.500 team on the road. Call me crazy, but I think their 16-13 start is a bit of a mirage.

Prediction: Angels 2, Orioles 1
Angels -125 (1 Unit) -- Correct; +$100


Detroit Tigers (14-16) at Minnesota Twins (14-14)
Line: Tigers -125; Twins +115.

I was correct in thinking the Tigers would be flat on Friday night, and I wouldn't be surprised if their lethargy lingers throughout the weekend. I can't fault them though; it's a pretty big deal to go into the Bronx and sweep the Yankees. But that's not the only reason I'm taking the Twins. Righty Sam Baker is a pretty sharp pitcher coming off a poor outing. He rebounded well late last year in such situations. Meanwhile, it looks like Justin Verlander has lost all confidence. Once a dynamic pitcher, Verlander's numbers (1-4, 6.50 ERA) don't lie. He has no control, walking batters left and right. Until he gets his act together, fading him as a favorite seems like a good move.

Prediction: Twins 9, Tigers 3
Twins +115 (2 Units) -- Correct; +$230

Detroit Tigers (14-15) at Minnesota Twins (13-14)
Line: Tigers -140; Twins +130.

It was so frustrating watching Seattle's bullpen blow the game last night. What's wrong with J.J. Putz, and why is he closing with an ERA greater than 10?

The Tigers are coming off a sweep in the Bronx, so you might see a lot of action on their side tonight, especially with a low -140 tag. With that in mind, Detroit could be flat, as this game may seem meaningless after battling the Yankees. That gives us good value with the Twins, who have won three of four. Livan Hernandez just had his worst outing of the season, which bodes well for Minnesota because he usually bounces back with a strong performance. Armando Galarraga has thrown well thus far for the Tigers, but I'm curious if he can keep up his torrid pace.

Prediction: Twins 3, Tigers 2
Twins +130 (2 Units) -- Correct; +$260

Tampa Bay Rays (15-12) at Baltimore Orioles (15-12)
Line: Rays +100; Orioles -110.

The Devil Rays are for real. It's hard to believe they're playing so well. It's also hard to believe that despite having the same record, being a host and starting a pitcher with superior stats on the mound, the Orioles are just -110. Maybe that's a hint that something odd's going to happen. How about the fact that Brian Burres is bound to struggle? Burres is coming off a long outing. No big deal, right? Well, immediately following his four career appearances that have lasted at least seven innings, Burres is 0-4 with a 11.25 ERA and a WHIP greater than two.

Prediction: Rays 7, Orioles 5
Rays +100 (2 Units) -- Correct; +$200


Pittsburgh Pirates (12-16) at Washington Nationals (11-17)
Line: Pirates +120; Nationals -130.

When things start going bad for Zach Duke, everything goes wrong. He doesn't recover from poor outings well. The Nationals, who have won five of six, have the underrated Odalis Perez on the mound tonight. Perez's strikeout numbers have increased lately, which doesn't bode well for Pittsburgh's lineup, which averages seven strikeouts per game. Speaking of the Pirates' hitting, the team had just one game prior to yesterday's bashing of the Mets where it scored 10 or more runs. They followed that up with a 2-run effort at Atlanta.

Prediction: Nationals 6, Pirates 3
Nationals -130 (2 Units) -- Correct; +$200


Seattle Mariners (13-15) at Cleveland Indians (13-15)
Line: Mariners +140; Indians -150.

The Mariners seem like a good value play here. They should be able to pile on the runs against Paul Byrd, a junk pitcher who doesn't strike anyone out. Seattle seldom strikes out (4.6 per game), so there will be a lot of balls in play from their side. Meanwhile, the Indians are just 8-15 in non-Clifton Lee starts. Their lineup may struggle versus Miguel Batista, a better pitcher than his numbers indicate. Batista is mentally sharp and often bounces back with a strong performance after a bad start. He had his worst outing of the year a few days ago, lasting just one inning. Using history as a trend, Cleveland could be in trouble.

Prediction: Mariners 8, Indians 4
Mariners +140 (2 Units) -- Incorrect; -$200

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Last Week's Winnings (Aug. 18-24, 2008): 6-1 (+$1,880)

2006 Season Winnings: -$655 (+$2,640 since Aug. 19)
2007 Season Winnings: -$5,840
2008 Season Winnings (as of Aug. 25): -$6,895

Career Winnings (as of Aug. 25): -$13,340

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