Spencer Flohr Mock Draft 1.0
Published at 11/7/2017 3:07:18 PM
The draft order is based on my predicted records for every team using the record they actually have through week 9 with injuries and upsets taken into account. The website I used for the predictions also ranks the teams accurately so tiebreakers were decided for me. I chose not to implement any trades other than those already made in real life simply because they're so hard to predict.
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The Browns have sat through terrible QB after terrible QB and DeShone Kizer clearly isn't the answer. I don't particularly like Josh Rosen as a prospect but after passing on young star quarterbacks like Carson Wentz and Deshaun Watson, Cleveland can't afford to stand pat again.
The Niners have a strong young defense and have spent 4 of their last 5 first round picks on the D, they also now have a young QB they believe in, in the form of Jimmy Garropolo. While they may need significant O-line help, there is not an O-lineman worth taking at this point, thus Kyle Shanhan gets to add another toy, and in my opinion the best player in this draft, to his intricate offensive system. Carlos Hyde may be solid but Saquon Barkley is elite.
The Giants seriously need a running back but with Barkley gone, there is no one worth taking here. Thus they go defense and help out one of the worst safety duos in the league and one that was absolutely picked apart by Jared Goff this week. Derwin James may be a more complete player but Minkah Fitzpatrick is better in pass coverage and that's what the Giants so desperately need.
Jacoby Brissett has been serviceable for Indy and he is not the reason they are picking this high. Rather, they have this pick due to poor offensive line play and an overall bad defensive unit. With no offensive lineman worth taking at this pick, they go best defensive player available and get a dominant pass rusher in Arden Key.
The Bucs have been surprisingly bad this season, in fact, I predicted they would make the playoffs at the beginning of the season but instead, they are 2-6 through week 9 including several embarrassing losses. While this can be contributed to the fact that Jameis Winston has struggled with injuries all year, the defense has been the main concern. They've been picked apart and simply put, need playmakers. Sack connousier Bradley Chubb can fill that role.
The Cardinals may be 4-4 right now but without Carson Palmer and David Johnson they're not going to win many more games. It may be ridiculous to see a guard getting selected this high but O-line has been a huge concern for the Cards and is one of the biggest reasons Palmer keeps getting hurt. Palmer is only getting older and they have to find ways to keep him upright, Nelson is the best offensive lineman in this draft and is a great fit in Arizona.
The Dolphins are 4-4 too but with Jay Cutler manning the helm and the dynamic duo of Kenyan Drake and Damian Williams running the ball I just can't see them winning too many games either. Ward may be a reach but corner is a clear weakness for the Dolphins and one that must be addressed if they want to win.
Mitch Trubisky has shown signs of being capable and the defense has been a bright spot so the one major hole for a surprisingly good Bears team is at wide receiver where Kendall Wright is the #1 option. No young QB can succeed without weapons to throw too so the Bears have to take the best receiver available.
The Broncos defense has been rock solid this year and safeties Justin Simmons and Darian Stewart have been solid but Derwin James is just too good to pass up on at this point and provides a significant upgrade over both Simmons and the aging Stewart.
The Packers are a decent team but without Aaron Rodgers they're nothing. The offense is stacked with weapons so rather than go offense, Green Bay should go after a talented edge rusher to help put pressure on opposing QBs.
This pick comes over from Houston in the Deshaun Watson trade and would be a much lower if not for Watson's injury. The Cleveland defense has been highly invested in and is starting to look solid so the Browns have to focus on their offense and acquire more weapons. Crowell has been a disappointment this season and Duke Johnson cannot be an every down back so they snag a stud out of LSU.
Baker Mayfield isn't considered a first round prospect right now due to his size but that hasn't stopped guys like Russell WiIson and Drew Brees from succeeding. The bottom line is Baker Mayfield makes plays and win games, plus, Josh McCown can't keep playing well forever.
The Chargers are a sneaky good team but seem to always fall apart late in games. That's probably because Philip Rivers never has time to throw the ball. This isn't a fun pick but it's a necessary one.
The Falcons have been dissapointing and Matt Ryan has regressed. A lot of his regression is because he's been forced to throw way too quickly. The Falcons need to shore up the O-line to save their franchise quarterback.
The Raiders inside linebacker play is about as bad as it gets even with the signing of NaVorro Bowman. To have Roquan Smith, the best ILB prospect in the draft, fall to them is an absolute blessing.
The Bengals lost a lot of O-line help in the offseason and that was likely the main reason for Andy Dalton's regression. They need some new help up front to help whichever QB is back there whether it's Dalton or A.J. McCarron.