NFL Picks Against the Spread: Week 9, 2013

NFL Picks (Preseason 2013): 10-6 (+$720)
NFL Picks (Week 1, 2013): 4-11-1 (-$1,290)
NFL Picks (Week 2, 2013): 6-10 (+$130)
NFL Picks (Week 3, 2013): 9-6-1 (+$20)
NFL Picks (Week 4, 2013): 11-4 (+$870)
NFL Picks (Week 5, 2013): 8-6 (+$1,060)
NFL Picks (Week 6, 2013): 4-11 (-$420)
NFL Picks (Week 7, 2013): 6-9 (-$730)
NFL Picks (Week 8, 2013): 8-5 (+$760)

NFL Picks (2013): 66-68-1 (+$1,120)
NFL Picks (2012): 130-145-8 (-$5,760)
NFL Picks (2011): 137-133-12 (-$1,925)
NFL Picks (2010): 144-131-8 (+$6,080)
NFL Picks (2009): 151-124-9 (+$3,370)
NFL Picks (2008): 136-125-6 (+$4,330)
If you don’t quite understand the line, total or anything else, go to my Sports Betting FAQ.

Vegas betting action updated Nov. 4, 4:55 p.m. ET. Follow @walterfootball for updates.

Go to Week 9 NFL Picks – Early Games

Philadelphia Eagles (3-5) at Oakland Raiders (3-4)
Line: Raiders by 1. Total: 45.5.
Las Vegas Hilton Advance Point Spread: Eagles -3.
Walt’s Calculated Line (After Week 8): Raiders -4.5.
Sunday, Nov. 3, 4:05 ET
Discuss Week 9 Games, Talk Trash

The Game. Edge: Raiders.

This summer, I ran a Mafia game on the Web site called Penn State Sex Scandal Mafia. You can click the link to read the introduction and see the list of players. I’ll add to this page throughout the season, listing roles and talking about funny things that happened during the game.

Why am I doing this? Well, I wanted to post this on the main section of this Web site so that the mainstream media people who have sand in their vages will pick up on this and complain that I’m being insensitive.

Oh, and by the way, we have other Mafia games going on right now in the Mafia Forum. Mafia is a blast, so come and join the fun.

PHILADELPHIA OFFENSE: The Eagles’ quarterback carousel continues to spin around. Nick Foles started two weeks ago, but he left the game with a concussion after struggling to complete the simplest passes. Matt Barkley stepped in and tossed three interceptions. QBDK was thrown prematurely and aggravated his hamstring (this is why you should never, ever own him in fantasy). Barkley once again took the field and bombed. Now, Foles is practicing, so he appears to be the starter.

Will we see the Foles from the Tampa Bay victory or the Dallas loss? Well, the Buccaneers don’t know what the hell they’re doing schematically, while many of the players have quit on their coach. In other words, it won’t be as easy for Foles as it was in Tampa. Besides, it’ll be interesting to see how he comes back from his dreadful performance. He seemed afraid to take shots downfield eventually, so will he have the courage to do so in this game?

Foles won’t have a very easy task because Oakland is a surprising 15th against the pass (7.22 YPA). The primary catalyst for this decent stat is their pass rush, led by Lamarr Houston. The Eagles have surrendered seven sacks the past two weeks, so Foles will be under siege quite a bit. He also won’t be able to lean on the running game all that much. The Raiders are even better at stopping ground attacks (5th, 3.50 YPC). Besides, LeSean McCoy has barely been any sort of threat ever since QBDK went down with an injury for the first time. Without the threat of the read-option, teams haven’t had any sort of issue stopping the dynamic back.

OAKLAND OFFENSE: Terrelle Pryor got off to a hot start last week, scoring on a 93-yard touchdown rush on the opening drive. This was the longest run in Raiders’ franchise history, edging out Bo Jackson’s 92-yard scamper. However, Pryor struggled after that, going 10-of-19 for 87 yards and two interceptions.

This would normally be a concern for Oakland’s coaching staff, but Pryor will be going from trying to beat Dick LeBeau’s complex schemes to taking on Billy Davis and his inept game plans. The Eagles have a terrible stop unit with very suspect secondary play. Cornerback Cary Williams and safety Earl Wolff have enjoyed some positive moments recently, but they’ve also struggled, as they have all year. I really don’t see them having too much success against Pryor, as offensive coordinator Greg Olson will be able to coach circles around Davis.

One thing that Philadelphia’s defense has done well lately is stop the run. They’re 14th against it in terms of YPC (3.85), but they’ve been even better in that department in recent games, thanks to the outstanding play of Fletcher Cox. However, Philadelphia just traded nose tackle Isaac Sopoaga to the Patriots. Sopoaga wasn’t very good, but he’s better than anyone else the Eagles had at the position. Darren McFadden should be able to muster some decent gains, thanks in part to the threat of Pryor taking off. In a sense, the Raiders will give Philadelphia a test of its own medicine.

RECAP: I was hoping the Raiders would be home underdogs again – I would’ve made a big bet on them if that were the case – but that’s sadly not the case. I still feel like Oakland is the right side, but the team is in a weird dynamic by going from a home dog to a home favorite so quickly.

FINAL THOUGHTS: The Eagles are a sharp play. But as with the Vikings, it’s tough to bet money on a poisonous team like Philadelphia. I want no part of this matchup.

The Psychology. Edge: None.
No edge found.

The Vegas. Edge: Eagles.

No surprise that people are betting agaiinst the Eagles.

Percentage of money on Oakland: 76% (25,000 bets)

The Trends. Edge: Eagles.

Raiders are 8-28 ATS at home vs. teams with losing records.

Raiders are 6-18 ATS as a favorite since 2006.

Opening Line: Raiders -2.

Opening Total: 45.5.

Weather: .

Week 9 NFL Pick: Raiders 23, Eagles 16
Raiders -1 (0 Units) — Incorrect; $0
Under 45.5 (0 Units) — Incorrect; $0
Eagles 49, Raiders 20

Tampa Bay Buccaneers (0-7) at Seattle Seahawks (7-1)
Line: Seahawks by 14.5. Total: 40.5.
Las Vegas Hilton Advance Point Spread: Seahawks -16.
Walt’s Calculated Line (After Week 8): Seahawks -18.5.
Sunday, Nov. 3, 4:05 ET
Discuss Week 9 Games, Talk Trash

The Game. Edge: Seahawks.

If you haven’t made your Week 8 selection in the WalterFootball.com 2013 NFL Survivor Pool, make sure you do so. There are 292 players still remaining out of the original 2,580. The Steelers knocked out 35 people last week.

To see a report of how many teams are being picked for survivor this week, click here.

SEATTLE OFFENSE: There are many who believe the St. Louis-Seattle Monday night affair was fixed. For those who don’t, a logical explanation for why the Seahawks struggled to score on the previously pathetic Rams’ defense was because the offensive line was simply overwhelmed by a St. Louis front that is capable of generating tons of heat on opposing quarterbacks. It’s safe to say that Tampa’s defense lacks that feature.

The Buccaneers have one of the worst pass rushes in the NFL. They have just five sacks in their previous four games. The one talented player up front is defensive tackle Gerald McCoy, but he won’t make as big of an impact as Robert Quinn or Chris Long because Seattle’s main concern is on the exterior. Both starting tackles are out, but Tampa doesn’t have the defensive ends to take advantage of this liability.

As a result, Russell Wilson will be able to pass all over the Buccaneers and their moronic defensive schemes. He’ll also be able to count on Marshawn Lynch to have a better game, as Tampa is only average in terms of defending the run.

TAMPA BAY OFFENSE: The Buccaneers entered the season with Josh Freeman, Doug Martin, Vincent Jackson and Mike Williams as its main offensive quartet. Only one player remains. Freeman was cut, Martin is sidelined with a shoulder, while Williams is out for the year. Mike Glennon will have to somehow move the chains in a hostile environment without any semblance of a running game while focusing on just one target. Good luck, Glennon.

The Seahawks struggled against the run on Monday night, but they should put forth a better effort in this contest. Besides, Zac Stacy was a load to bring down; Mike James, on the other hand, isn’t anything special. Unlike the Rams, Tampa won’t have the luxury of having its backup quarterback operate in short-yardage situations. Seattle’s ferocious pass rush – the team has the second-most sacks in the NFL – should be able to have its way with the Buccaneer offensive line. Glennon has been sacked six times the past two weeks, and it wouldn’t surprise me one bit if he were brought down six times in this game alone.

RECAP: This spread is very high, but I don’t think it’s as big as it should be; my calculated number is -18.5. I’m not a fan of laying this many points though, especially given that we saw such a lack of effort on Seattle’s part Monday night. Having said that, the Seahawks are just so lethal at home that Tampa doesn’t stand much of a chance. I’ll lay a unit with the host.

FINAL THOUGHTS: Can I copy-paste? The same thing with the Vikings and Eagles applies here. Don’t outsmart yourself. Just pick the dominant Seahawks.

SUNDAY MORNING: Chad Millman said Sunday morning that the sharps are looking to bet the Seahawks if they drop to -14. I think I’d add a unit on them as well if that happened.

The Psychology. Edge: None.
No edge found.

The Vegas. Edge: Buccaneers.

The money is on Seattle despite the high spread.

Percentage of money on Seattle: 82% (31,000 bets)

The Trends. Edge: Seahawks.

Buccaneers are 7-27 SU on the West Coast in franchise history.

Seahawks are 21-7 ATS as home favorites since 2007.

Opening Line: Seahawks -16.5.

Opening Total: 40.

Weather: .

Week 9 NFL Pick: Seahawks 23, Buccaneers 3
Seahawks -14.5 (1 Unit) — Incorrect; -$110
Under 40.5 (0 Units) — Incorrect; $0
Seahawks 27, Buccaneers 24

Baltimore Ravens (3-4) at Cleveland Browns (3-5)
Line: Ravens by 1.5. Total: 41.5.
Las Vegas Hilton Advance Point Spread: Ravens -2.
Walt’s Calculated Line (After Week 8): Ravens -3.
Sunday, Nov. 3, 4:25 ET
Discuss Week 9 Games, Talk Trash

The Game. Edge: Ravens.

If you didn’t catch it, Emmitt on the Brink is back! Season 6, Episode 8 has been posted – Emmitt interrogates three suspects and the NFL admits to a couple of officiating blunders.

CLEVELAND OFFENSE: Trust me, I’m just as surprised as you were. I don’t know where this version of Jason Campbell came from, but he was very competent against the NFL’s top defense. Before I can believe that he’s a decent quarterback though, I’ll need to see it twice.

The Ravens will provide another tough test for Campbell. Like the Chiefs, Baltimore thrives at getting to the quarterback; its defense has more sacks than any other team in the NFL that has been on a bye thus far. Campbell was brought down only once last week, but I have to believe this was a fluke. After all, the Browns’ offensive line had surrendered 27 sacks heading into that contest. In terms of their 28 sacks allowed now, only four teams have permitted more this season. Shawn Lauvao has been an upgrade over Oniel Cousins at guard ever since replacing him a few weeks ago, but the Ravens just have so much talent up front.

Despite all of this, Campbell will hit Josh Gordon and Jordan Cameron with some big plays. Both Gordon and Cameron are just too good not to do anything positive, even if it’s against the Ravens. However, it’ll be the other players who will let Campbell down. Greg Little will run bad routes, Davone Bess will drop passes, and Willis McGahee will fall down after gaining two yards.

BALTIMORE OFFENSE: Like the Browns, the Ravens’ offensive line has been bolstered with a new player. Eugene Monroe was acquired from the Jaguars and has played pretty well in his two starts. He allowed one sack against Green Bay, but didn’t allow any defenders to get through versus Pittsburgh. This bye week was definitely important for him in terms of gelling with his new teammates. He’ll need to continue to perform well because the Browns have more sacks (26) than all but two teams in the NFL.

Joe Flacco obviously can’t be too excited about having to deal with such a dominant front seven. He’ll also be bummed out because he won’t be able to go to Torrey Smith too often, as hhis No. 1 wideout will battle Joe Haden. Smith did have a 7-85 line in a Week 2 clash versus Cleveland, but it’s crazy to expect duplicate results against arguably the top cornerback in football. The good news for Flacco is that he’ll have Jacoby Jones as a secondary option. Jones missed the first matchup versus the Browns.

It’ll be interesting to see how Ray Rice looks in this matchup. Rice, who was limited to 36 yards on 13 carries in Week 2, has shown a lack of burst all year because of a nagging leg injury. However, Rice said that his leg is feeling a lot better after the bye. He has a tough task ahead of him against the NFL’s No. 6 ground defense in terms of YPC (3.52), but a more-explosive Rice would be more useful as a pass-catcher coming out of the backfield.

RECAP: I mentioned earlier that betting on road favorites coming off byes is a lucrative proposition. How lucrative? Away teams laying points battling opponents off standard rest are 34-10 against the spread since 2002. John Harbaugh himself has never lost the spread following a bye. That makes sense, as he happens to be one of the top coaches in the NFL. He’ll have a great game plan prepared for Cleveland.

Here’s another pro-Harbaugh trend: Harbaugh is 8-3 straight up (7-4 ATS) against divisional opponents he has beaten earlier in the season. The three losses have come against the Steelers, which are always toss-up games. This makes sense, as Harbaugh can out-coach most others, and seeing an opponent once before makes things much easier for a good coach.

I’m going with the Ravens for three units. This is essentially a pick-em game, and they happen to be the superior team in a good spot.

FINAL THOUGHTS: I still like Baltimore for three units.

SUNDAY MORNING: Chad Millman said Sunday morning that many sharps are all over the Browns. Well, sometimes the sharps are wrong, and that could be the case here. I’m not sure if there’s such a thing as sharp money on a poisonous team like Cleveland. I still love the Ravens.

The Psychology. Edge: None.
No edge found.

The Vegas. Edge: Browns.

A good amount of money on the road favorite.

Percentage of money on Baltimore: 79% (30,000 bets)

The Trends. Edge: Ravens.

History: Ravens have won the last 11 meetings (road team has covered 7 of the last 8).

John Harbaugh is 5-0 ATS off a bye.

Opening Line: Ravens -3.

Opening Total: 40.

Weather: .

Week 9 NFL Pick: Ravens 22, Browns 16
Ravens -1.5 (3 Units) — Incorrect; -$330
Under 41.5 (0 Units) — Incorrect; $0
Browns 24, Ravens 18

Pittsburgh Steelers (2-5) at New England Patriots (6-2)
Line: Patriots by 6. Total: 43.5.
Las Vegas Hilton Advance Point Spread: Patriots -6.5.
Walt’s Calculated Line (After Week 8): Patriots -6.
Sunday, Nov. 3, 4:25 ET
Discuss Week 9 Games, Talk Trash

The Game. Edge: Patriots.

A reminder that Jerks of the Week for Oct. 28, 2013 is up, so just click the link. This week’s jerks entry is a kidnapping mystery thriller: WalterFootball and the Case of the Kidnapped Granddaughter!

NEW ENGLAND OFFENSE: So, we now know what’s wrong with Tom Brady. I mentioned in the NFL Power Rankings page that his hand looked like it was a dead animal. That was no exaggeration. It was incredibly swollen, which would explain why he’s missing so many of his receivers. It actually has to be a relief for pure football fans without any anti-Patriot bias because if Brady were finished, as some speculated, it would’ve robbed us of several years of one of the greatest quarterbacks in league history.

Having said that, just because we’re aware of what’s bothering Brady doesn’t mean that he’ll be able to get over his issues anytime soon. Hopefully he’ll be much healthier after his Week 10 bye, but he’ll continue to be haunted by the same issues in this matchup. That could especially be problematic because Pittsburgh’s defense has improved since its post-London bye. Aside from the long Terrelle Pryor run, the Steelers limited Oakland to just 193 net yards of offense.

It’ll be tough for the Patriots to move the ball this Sunday because the Steelers are 11th against the rush in terms of YPC to opposing running backs (3.78 YPC). Thus, they’ll have to rely on the shaky Brady right now. The one thing New England has going for itself in this contest is that the Steelers have immense trouble getting to the quarterback; they have the fewest sacks in the NFL. Part of New England’s problem has been pass protection, so Brady won’t have to worry about too many defenders swarming around him in this matchup.

PITTSBURGH OFFENSE: Speaking of pass-protection struggles, the Steelers couldn’t block against the Raiders on Sunday. Kelvin Beachum, who had played well in two starts since taking over for an injured Levi Brown, suddenly became a huge liability when he couldn’t block Lamarr Houston. The beleaguered Mike Adams stepped in eventually, and he wasn’t much better.

Only seven teams have more sacks than the Patriots, who have 10 sacks in their previous two games, so Ben Roethlisberger is expected to be pressured quite heavily. It doesn’t help his cause that top corner Aqib Talib could be back in the lineup after missing a couple of weeks. Talib had been enjoying a Pro Bowl-caliber season prior to leaving in the middle of the New Orleans victory, so having him back will be a huge boost.

Unfortunately for the Patriots, the one guy they really miss right now is Vince Wilfork, and he’s not returning this season. As a result, New England has surrendered at least 120 rushing yards to its previous four opponents, prompting the Tuesday trade for Isaac Sopoaga (click the link for trade grades). However, Sopoaga won’t make too much of a difference, so the Steelers figure to be able to establish Le’Veon Bell quite easily. This will be huge, as it’ll take pressure off Roethlisberger.

RECAP: I don’t have a strong lean on either side. On one hand, teams play well in their second-consecutive road contest (favors the Steelers). On the other hand, good teams are usually strong going into their bye (favors the Patriots). If I had to choose a side – and I guess I do because I pick every game on this Web site – I’d go with the Steelers because this spread is a bit too high. My calculated line is Patriots -6. It’s not a huge difference, but it’s under the key number of seven.

FINAL THOUGHTS: This spread has dropped to six, which is where the spread should be. This is a coin-flip game for me.

The Psychology. Edge: None.
No edge found.

The Vegas. Edge: Steelers.

People are off the Pittsburgh bandwagon after that loss to the Raiders.

Percentage of money on New England: 75% (40,000 bets)

The Trends. Edge: None.

Ben Roethlisberger is 17-13 ATS as an underdog.

Tom Brady is 153-51 as a starter (117-82 ATS).

Opening Line: Patriots -7.

Opening Total: 43.

Weather: .

Week 9 NFL Pick: Patriots 20, Steelers 16
Steelers +6 (0 Units) — Incorrect; $0
Under 43.5 (0 Units) — Incorrect; $0
Patriots 55, Steelers 31

Indianapolis Colts (5-2) at Houston Texans (2-5)
Line: Colts by 1. Total: 43.
Las Vegas Hilton Advance Point Spread: Texans -2.
Walt’s Calculated Line (After Week 8): Colts -2.
Sunday, Nov. 3, 8:30 ET
Discuss Week 9 Games, Talk Trash

The Game. Edge: Colts.

I used to love making fun of GameCenter comments. The people on there were such idiots. There were even perverts like Aaron3619, who always asked chicks for their pictures so that he could carry them around.

I planned to mess with Aaron3619 as a fake user named TexasGirl1234, but NFL.com shut down its GameCenter and implemented Facebook comments instead. This enraged me, so get revenge, I made a fake Facebook account named Mario Migelini to troll people. Other readers followed suit and made fake accounts of their own.

I added a second fake account this year – Vivian Williamson. This is based off of Miss Vivian, a security guard at the Philadelphia International Airport, whom I’ve written about in Jerks of the Week (click the link to read about her).

Unfortunately, some a**holes with no sense of humor decided to flag Miss Vivian as a troller, so I had to make a new account. Kevin Reilly has been born!

Go here to see all of the NFL.com Troll Posts from myself and other trollers.

HOUSTON OFFENSE: It appears as though the Texans have officially moved on from Matt Schaub. Even though Schaub is healthy enough to play, Case Keenum was named the starter. This wasn’t too much of a surprise; after all, how could they go back to Schaub after all of the pick-sixes and the backlash from all of the fans? They need to find out what they have in Keenum anyway before the 2014 NFL Draft, which happens to be rich with quarterbacks.

Keenum looks to be in a tough spot here; he’ll be taking on a much-improved defense, possibly without his two starting running backs. Both Arian Foster and Ben Tate will be game-time decisions. Even if one sucks it up and plays hurt, it won’t be much help because that particular back may not be close to 100 percent. The Colts have an average run defense – their previous four opponents have gained just 3.9 YPC against them – so they should be able to handle an injured Foster or Tate, or whomever else Houston trots out.

The Texans’ offense is so predicated on the run that not having Foster or Tate at full strength will be a problem. Keenum will have to move the chains mostly on his own and operate out of long-yardage situations. This could be treacherous, as Indianapolis has a decent pass rush, led by Robert Mathis, who is playing out of his mind this year. The Colts rattled Peyton Manning two weeks ago, so why can’t they do the same thing to Keenum?

INDIANAPOLIS OFFENSE: Things looked to be going so well for the Colts, but then Andrew Luck underthrew a pass headed for Reggie Wayne’s direction. Wayne bent down awkwardly to get it and tore his ACL in the process. Wayne has been such a big part of Indianapolis’ scoring attack; he has caught at least five passes in every single game, save for one, which happened to be a blowout (at San Francisco), so he didn’t need to do as much. He has been a great safety valve for Luck, who will now have to look elsewhere more often.

The problem is that Luck doesn’t have much else to work with. T.Y. Hilton has great speed, but he’s inconsistent. Darrius Heyward-Bey drops passes and runs bad routes. Coby Fleener has enjoyed some positive moments, but plenty of negative ones too. Who else is there, LaVon Brazill? Griff Whalen? Luck is a fantastic quarterback who will make some great throws and scramble around to pick up first downs, but it seems like the Colts may have trouble sustaining consistent drives, especially against better defenses like Houston. The Texans are missing Brian Cushing, but they still have J.J. Watt and Antonio Smith to rush Luck, who is still playing behind a pedestrian offensive line that surrendered four sacks against Denver.

It would be great if the Colts could establish a running game to help Luck, but Trent Richardson has been a huge disappointment. He hasn’t had much running room to work with to be fair, but he just hasn’t shown much explosion while gaining a pathetic 3.1 yards per carry. The Texans are average in terms of stopping the rush, so I wouldn’t expect much from Richardson on the ground. However, Indianapolis almost definitely spent the bye teaching Richardson the protections and such to get him incorporated in the aerial attack. Using him as a pass-catcher coming out of the backfield is crucial going forward with Wayne gone.

RECAP: This is a tough spot for the Colts. The Texans will be playing this game as if it were their Super Bowl. They’ll keep it close and may lead for a big portion of the game, but ultimately, I think Luck will come through at the end and prevail. This matchup is too close to call, so I’m just going to side with Indianapolis for no units.

FINAL THOUGHTS: There is going to be so much money on the Colts come Sunday night. This is a chase game, and everyone is already betting on Indianapolis. Having said that, I still would side with Indianapolis because Andrew Luck should be able to find a way to win at the very end.

The Psychology. Edge: None.
No edge found.

The Vegas. Edge: Texans.

Tons of money on the Colts.

Percentage of money on Indianapolis: 78% (44,000 bets)

The Trends. Edge: Texans.

History: Colts have won 18 of the 22 meetings.

Texans are 35-18 ATS after two or more consecutive losses.

Texans are 9-4 ATS as home underdogs since October 2006.

Opening Line: Colts -1.

Opening Total: 45.

Weather: Dome.

Week 9 NFL Pick: Colts 27, Texans 23
Colts -1 (0 Units) — Correct; $0
Over 44 (0 Units) — Correct; $0
Colts 27, Texans 24

Chicago Bears (4-3) at Green Bay Packers (5-2)
Line: Packers by 10. Total: 51.
Las Vegas Hilton Advance Point Spread: Packers -8.
Walt’s Calculated Line (After Week 8): Packers -14.
Monday, Nov. 4, 8:30 ET
Discuss Week 9 Games, Talk Trash

The Game. Edge: Packers.

This week on ESPN, we’re going to have Mike Tirico and Jon Gruden calling the shots instead of the great preseason homers like Kevin Reilly and Don Tollefson, inept ESPN guys Emmitt, Herman Edwards and Matt Millen, annoying guys like Charles Davis and senile guys like Bob Greise. Here’s what it would sound like if those six clowns (and some special guests) were calling this game:

Reilly: Welcome to the city of Green Bay, home of the Packers. Guys, I made an important discovery recently. Did you know the Packers are a publicly owned team?

Emmitt: Ricardo, I do not know what this mean. The verb public is sometime used in front of another verb like public restroom. In the public restroom, you can go release yourselves and you can also wash your hand too. Is this what you mean by sayin’ the Packer is a public restroom?

Reilly: Emmitt, I said “public team;” not “public restroom.” The Packers are a public team, so that means anyone can own a piece of the franchise. My new plan is to buy up all of the shares so I become the sole owner of the Packers!

Tollefson: That’s a great idea, Kevin. Let’s split the franchise 50-50. You can do whatever you want with your half, and I’ll use my half to lure in women who can cook and clean for me to their heart’s desire. I’ll even be nice and let them strip down naked very quickly.

Reilly: Why would I want women to strip down naked, pervert? My ultimate goal once I’m sole owner of the Packers is to move the team to Philadelphia. I’ll then trade all of the good players to the Eagles and all of the bad players to the Packers so that my Eagles can thrive.

Edwards: BUT YOU’RE THE OWNER OF THE PACKERS! NOT THE OWNER OF THE EAGLES! NOT THE OWNER OF THE EAGLES, NOW! NOT THE OWNER OF THE EAGLES! THE OWNER OF THE PACKERS! THE TEAM THAT HAS GREEN AND GOLD COLORS! NOT GREEN AND WHITE! THAT’S THE EAGLES! NOT THE PACKERS! PACKERS ARE GREEN AND GOLD! EAGLES ARE GREEN AND WHITE! EAGLES ARE GREEN AND GOLD! I MEAN THE EAGLES ARE GREEN AND WHITE! PACKERS ARE GREEN AND GOLD! HERM GETS CONFUSED SOMETIMES BECAUSE BOTH TEAMS HAVE GREEN! BOTH TEAMS HAVE GREEN, NOW! BOTH TEAMS HAVE GREEN! THIS CONFUSES HERM, NOW! HERM VERY CONFUSED! HERM FORGOT THE POINT HE WAS TRYING TO MAKE! HERM… uhh… umm…

Reilly: Shut up, Herm. Why the hell do I care what colors the teams have? I’ll change the Packers’ colors to pink and purple so that no one confuses them with the Eagles.

Griese: Some of the players are wearing pink on the field.

Reilly: Nice job noticing, Griese. Where have you been? Don’t you know it’s Breast Cancer Awareness Month? Or do you support breast cancer? Hey guys, Griese supports breast cancer!

Davis: October is more than just Breast Cancer Awareness Month, Kevin. Do you know what else October is, Kevin? It’s Spanish Heritage Month as well, Kevin. Do you know what else is in October, Kevin? How about Columbus Day? The guy only discovered America, Kevin, even though he thought he sailed all the way to India, Kevin. How about Halloween? Aren’t you scared of ghosts and goblins, Kevin? Speaking of Ghosts and Goblins, that was a video game, Kevin. You took only two hits, and then you died, Kevin. Moving on with October, did you know that the last day in February is the same exact day of the week as the last day in October, Kevin? That’s because it’s exactly 35 weeks, Kevin. That way you can be prepared for what day Halloween is, Kevin. Maybe you’ll have more luck evading the ghosts and goblins than the knight in Ghost and Goblins, Kevin. Let’s talk more about October, Kevin…

Reilly: Charles Davis, once of these days I’m going to slip poison into your food, and you’re going to die a horrible death.

Millen: Now, Kevin, to be fair to Charles here, knowing which day of the week Halloween will be can be very beneficial. Halloween is the best time of year, save for the Polish kielbasa festival. Men, ranging from 100-percent USDA to 1,000-percent USDA, are scantily clad, allowing you to determine their level percentage of USDA. I have to say, Kevin, it gets me very excited. In fact, I’m so excited that I fast for days.

Reilly: You fast for days? But you’re so fat.

Millen: You misunderstand me, Kevin. I eat as much as usual. By fasting, I mean I don’t bring 100-percent USDA Men back to my hotel and mess around with them using my various kielbasas. I settle for those who are 50-percent or worse USDA Men so that I can enjoy the 100-percent USDA Men come Halloween.

Reilly: Ugh, eww. I think you’re another person I’ll have to poison. We’ll be back after a word from our local sponsors!

CHICAGO OFFENSE: Poor Bears. They can’t ever go a season without Jay Cutler suffering some sort of injury. Cutler had been playing well for the most part too, so it’s a shame that he had to go down. Josh McCown stepped in against Washington and went 14-of-20 for 204 yards and one touchdown to go along with 33 rushing yards. McCown is a decent backup quarterback, but any Chicago fans expecting a duplicate performance out of McCown need a reality check. What McCown accomplished came against one of the worst defenses in the NFL. He won’t have nearly as much luck against Green Bay.

The Packers have improved their defense following a shaky start to the season. The big difference has been the return of safety Morgan Burnett, who has made a big difference for a team that struggled versus the pass early on. To illustrate the improvement, Green Bay is 24th against the pass in terms of YPA (7.64) for the entire season, but its 6.55 YPA over the previous four weeks would rank them 10th if that were stretch over the entire year. Sure, they’ve battled some shaky signal-callers recently like Brandon Weeden and Christian Ponder, but it’s not like McCown is Joe Montana or anything.

So, passing will be an issue for the Bears. Running the ball won’t be any easier. The Packers are 12th in terms of YPC to opposing running backs (3.79), and they just did a relatively decent job of containing a highly motivated Adrian Peterson. Stopping Matt Forte shouldn’t be much of a problem.

GREEN BAY OFFENSE: As bad as things are for the Bears on offense, their defense is in much worse shape. They’re 27th against the rush in terms of YPC (4.28), as they had problems stopping Brandon Jacobs on a recent Thursday night. They’re even worse versus aerial attacks, ranking dead last in YPA (8.66). The problem there is a severely lacking pass rush, which is exposing an injury-laden back seven.

Given these problems, I have no idea how the Bears are going to contain the Packers, who scored on eight consecutive possessions at Minnesota. Randall Cobb, James Jones and Jermichael Finley have been out, but it doesn’t matter because Aaron Rodgers is complemented by a potent rushing attack for the first time in his career. Eddie Lacy is so difficult to bring down, especially given that the opposition can’t focus on him, given the threat of Rodgers torching them downfield. I just can’t envision a scenario in which Chicago limits Green Bay’s offense, outside of sloppy Packer turnovers.

RECAP: I love Green Bay in this contest, as this spread is at least three points too short. This is a statement game for the Packers, who can show the entire nation how good they are. They’ll have incentive to beat a hated divisional rival, and they’ll be able to do so at home, where they have been a covering machine.

FINAL THOUGHTS: This spread was -9.5 earlier on Monday, but -10 is fine. The Packers remain my top pick of the week. Good luck to all of those betting on this game.

The Psychology. Edge: None.
No edge found.

The Vegas. Edge: Bears.

A good amount of money on the Packers, but nothing crazy.

Percentage of money on Green Bay: 72% (64,000 bets)

The Trends. Edge: Packers.

Bears are 28-17 ATS in November since 2001.

Aaron Rodgers is 47-27 ATS since 2009 (8-4 ATS as a favorite of 12+).

Packers are 22-8 ATS at home since 2010.

Opening Line: Packers -11.

Opening Total: 48.5.

Weather: .

Week 9 NFL Pick: Packers 38, Bears 17
Packers -10 (4 Units) — Incorrect; -$440
Over 51 (0 Units) — Incorrect; $0
Bears 27, Packers 20

Week 9 NFL Picks – Early Games
Cincinnati�at�Miami, Kansas City�at�Buffalo, San Diego�at�Washington, Atlanta�at�Carolina, Minnesota�at�Dallas, Tennessee�at�St. Louis, New Orleans�at�NY Jets

Prop/Teaser/Parlay Picks
A list of some of my favorite team/player prop picks this week
(Offense & defensive ROY picks to be counted whenver winners are announced.) Picks carried over on a week-to-week basis will be in black.

Teaser: Eagles +8, Texans +8 (1 Unit) — Correct; +$100

Moneyline Underdog: Steelers +225 (0.5 Units) — Incorrect; -$50

2024 NFL Mock Draft - April 23

NFL Power Rankings - Feb. 22

Fantasy Football Rankings - Feb. 19

NFL Picks - Feb. 12

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Note: For legality purposes, this Web site does not promote or advocate gambling. This is solely for entertainment purposes only.

Last Week's NFL Picks Against The Spread (Week 18, 2023): 10-6 (-$415)
Last Week's 2-3 Unit NFL Picks (Week 18, 2023): 3-1 (+$460)
Last Week's 4-5 Unit NFL Picks (Week 18, 2023): 1-1 (-$40)
Last Week Over-Under (Week 18, 2023): 7-9 ($0)
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2023 NFL Picks of the Month: 1-4, 20.0% (-$2,480)

2023 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 137-135-7, 50.4% (-$7,735)
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2023 Season Over-Under: 139-128-3, 52.1% (+$100)
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1999 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 27-41-3 (39.7%)
2000 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 128-123-8 (51.0%)
2001 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 127-122-7 (51.0%)
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2009 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 151-124-9, 54.9% (+$4,235)
2010 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 144-131-8, 52.4% (+$5,880)
2011 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 137-133-12, 50.7% (-$1,335)
2012 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 130-145-8, 47.3% (-$7,445)
2013 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 144-131-8, 52.4% (+$7,825)
2014 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 143-133-7, 51.8% (-$1,885)
2015 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 134-138-12, 49.3% (-$3,215)
2016 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 148-127-10, 53.8% (+$780)
2017 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 137-140-8, 49.5% (-$4,300)
2018 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 140-134-14, 51.3% (+$845)
2019 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 149-128-9, 53.6% (+$1,200)
2020 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 138-124-7, 52.7% (+$9,350)
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2022 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 154-134-8, 53.5% (+$9,860)

2002 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 41-49-2 (45.6%)
2003 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 52-51-2 (50.5%)
2004 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 65-44-3 (59.6%)
2005 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 77-61-1 (55.8%)
2006 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 65-61-4 (51.6%)
2007 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 83-59-5, 58.5% (+$4,110)
2008 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 44-57-3, 43.6% (-$3,510)
2009 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 49-35-3, 58.3% (+$2,260)
2010 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 51-38-4, 57.3% (+$3,180)
2011 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 44-51-3, 46.3% (-$2,715)
2012 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 45-50-2, 47.4% (-$2,130)
2013 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 38-42, 47.5% (-$2,890)
2015 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 47-44-1, 51.6% (-$820)
2016 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 42-35-3, 54.5% (+$475)
2017 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 32-40-3, 43.8% (-$2,395)
2018 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 52-41-2, 55.9% (+$2,670)
2019 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 44-36-2, 55.0% (+$655)
2020 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 47-43-3, 52.2% (-$1,965)
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2022 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 56-44-2, 56.0% (+$1,860)

2002 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 11-12 (47.8%)
2003 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 16-13-1 (55.2%)
2004 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 18-11 (62.1%)
2005 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 25-22-1 (53.2%)
2006 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 21-29-1 (42.0%)
2007 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 35-30-2, 53.8% (+$420)
2008 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 39-26-2, 60.0% (+$4,055)
2009 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 29-26, 52.7% (+$330)
2010 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 32-22, 59.3% (+$4,790)
2011 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 14-14, 50.0% (-$1,260)
2012 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 14-21, 40.0% (-$3,650)
2013 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 17-9-3, 65.4% (+$2,970)
2015 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 17-16-2, 51.5% (-$1,120)
2016 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 21-22-5, 48.8% (-$1,465)
2017 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 20-22-1, 47.6% (-$1,595)
2018 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 27-32-1, 45.8% (-$4,735)
2019 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 37-27-2, 57.8% (+$2,185)
2020 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 37-22-1, 62.7% (+$5,515)
2021 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 32-32-1, 50.0% (-$725)
2022 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 41-30-1, 57.8% (+$3,725)

2001 Season Over-Under: 3-2 (60.0%)
2002 Season Over-Under: 121-91-3 (57.1%)
2003 Season Over-Under: 126-132-2 (48.8%)
2004 Season Over-Under: 139-124-4 (52.9%)
2005 Season Over-Under: 117-145-4 (44.7%)
2006 Season Over-Under: 129-132-5 (49.4%)
2007 Season Over-Under: 136-145-3, 48.4% (-$1,900)
2008 Season Over-Under: 137-125-6, 52.3% (+$860)
2009 Season Over-Under: 128-135-4, 48.7% (-$3,195)
2010 Season Over-Under: 128-135-5, 48.7% (-$5)
2011 Season Over-Under: 131-131-5, 50.0% (+$135)
2012 Season Over-Under: 125-121-5, 50.8% (+$30)
2013 Season Over-Under: 132-130-5, 50.4% (-$340)
2015 Season Over-Under: 143-119-5, 54.6% ($0)
2016 Season Over-Under: 123-141-1, 46.6% (+$95)
2017 Season Over-Under: 136-139-2, 49.5% (+$640)
2018 Season Over-Under: 118-128-3, 48.0% (-$225)
2019 Season Over-Under: 126-133-4, 48.6% (-$50)
2020 Season Over-Under: 141-122-6, 53.6% ($0)
2021 Season Over-Under: 132-151-3, 46.6% ($0)
2022 Season Over-Under: 133-149-2, 47.2% (-$225)

2007 Season Prop/ML/Teaser/Parlay Picks: +$1,035
2008 Season Prop/ML/Teaser/Parlay Picks: +$1,775
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2010 Season Prop/ML/Teaser/Parlay Picks: -$200
2011 Season Prop/ML/Teaser/Parlay Picks: +$590
2012 Season Prop/ML/Teaser/Parlay Picks: -$1,685
2013 Season Prop/ML/Teaser/Parlay Picks: +$2,245
2015 Season Prop/ML/Teaser/Parlay Picks: -$855
2016 Season Prop/ML/Teaser/Parlay Picks: -$275
2017 Season Prop/ML/Teaser/Parlay Picks: -$510
2018 Season Prop/ML/Teaser/Parlay Picks: +$1,495
2019 Season Prop/ML/Teaser/Parlay Picks: -$1,715
2020 Season Prop/ML/Teaser/Parlay Picks: +$4,975
2021 Season Prop/ML/Teaser/Parlay Picks: +$3,455
2022 Season Prop/ML/Teaser/Parlay Picks: +$5,720

2006 NFL Picks of the Month: 3-3 (50%)
2007 NFL Picks of the Month: 3-3, 50.0% (-$400)
2008 NFL Picks of the Month: 6-1, 85.7% (+$3,720)
2009 NFL Picks of the Month: 3-2, 60.0% (+$640)
2010 NFL Picks of the Month: 2-4, 33.3% (-$1,810)
2011 NFL Picks of the Month: 5-2, 71.4% (+$1,870)
2012 NFL Picks of the Month: 3-2, 60.0% (+$560)
2013 NFL Picks of the Month: 6-0, 100% (+$3,900)
2014 NFL Picks of the Month: 2-4, 33.3% (-$1,350)
2015 NFL Picks of the Month: 3-3, 50.0% (-$100)
2016 NFL Picks of the Month: 5-1, 83.3% (+$2,780)
2017 NFL Picks of the Month: 4-2, 66.7% (+$1,040)
2018 NFL Picks of the Month: 4-3, 57.1% (-$640)
2019 NFL Picks of the Month: 3-3-1, 50.0% (-$625)
2020 NFL Picks of the Month: 3-2, 60.0% (+$665)
2021 NFL Picks of the Month: 2-3, 40.0% (-$920)
2022 NFL Picks of the Month: 3-4, 42.9% (-$1,615)

Career NFL Picks Against The Spread: 3,420-3,152-195, 52.1% (+$21,170)
Career 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 1,106-983-56 (52.9%)
Career 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 549-485-25 (53.1%)
Career Over-Under: 2,853-2,829-74 (50.3%)
Career Second-Half NFL Picks: 23-16-1 (59.0%)
Career NFL Picks of the Month: 46-34-1 (57.5t%)

My Team-by-Team ATS Record
This section shows how well I do when picking each team this year. The purpose is to see how well I read each team. Pushes are not displayed. Winning/losing streak in parentheses.

Cowboys: 8-9	Bears: 11-4	Bucs: 6-11	49ers: 10-7
Eagles: 7-7	Lions: 9-8	Falcons: 8-9	Cardinals: 8-9
Giants: 7-9	Packers: 5-12	Panthers: 8-9	Rams: 8-9
Redskins: 14-3	Vikings: 6-9	Saints: 10-7	Seahawks: 7-9

Bills: 9-7	Bengals: 12-5	Colts: 7-10	Broncos: 9-6
Dolphins: 6-11	Browns: 11-5	Jaguars: 13-4	Chargers: 8-9
Jets: 8-9	Ravens: 11-6	Texans: 5-12	Chiefs: 5-10
Patriots: 7-9	Steelers: 11-6	Titans: 9-8	Raiders: 6-9

Divisional: 50-35 (2011-22: 558-526)	2x Game Edge: 36-24 (2011-22: 363-361)	2x Motivation Edge: 32-36 (2011-22: 478-405)	2x Spread Edge: 41-40 (2011-22: 197-168)
2x Vegas Edge: 41-38 (2011-22: 407-406)	2x Trend Edge: 15-13 (2011-22: 306-279)	Double Edge: 17-13 (2011-22: 190-172)	Triple Edge: 1-1 (2011-22: 32-36)