NFL Picks Against the Spread: Week 4, 2017

NFL Picks (Preseason 2017): 9-10-1 (-$110)
NFL Picks (Week 1, 2017): 8-6-1 (+$135)
NFL Picks (Week 2, 2017): 9-7 (+$45)
NFL Picks (Week 3, 2017): 5-11 (-$425)

NFL Picks (2017): 31-34-2 (-$355)
NFL Picks (2016): 148-127-10 (+$1,055)
NFL Picks (2015): 133-138-10 (-$2,360)
NFL Picks (2014): 143-132-7 (-$1,115)
NFL Picks (2013): 144-131-8 (+$5,580)
NFL Picks (2012): 130-145-8 (-$5,760)
NFL Picks (2011): 137-133-12 (-$1,925)
NFL Picks (2010): 144-131-8 (+$6,080)
NFL Picks (2009): 151-124-9 (+$3,370)
NFL Picks (2008): 136-125-6 (+$4,330)
If you don’t quite understand the line, total or anything else, go to my Sports Betting FAQ.

Vegas betting action updated Oct. 3, 6:55 p.m. ET. Follow @walterfootball for updates.

Go to Week 4 NFL Picks – Early Games

New York Giants (0-3) at Tampa Bay Buccaneers (1-1)
Line: Buccaneers by 2.5. Total: 45.5.
Las Vegas Hilton Advance Point Spread: Buccaneers -6.
Walt’s Calculated Line: Buccaneers -3 to Buccaneers -6 (depending on who plays).
Sunday, Oct 1, 4:05 PM
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The Game. Edge: TBA.

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NEW YORK OFFENSE: I hope no one was fooled into thinking the Giants have a good offense now after their impressive second-half showing against the Eagles. Philadelphia lost Fletcher Cox and Jordan Hicks to injuries, which sparked New York’s scoring unit. The Giants likely wouldn’t have done much otherwise.

That said, the Giants will have an opportunity to be productive again in this contest because of all the injuries the Buccaneers have suffered. Brent Grimes, Kwan Alexander and Chris Baker, all of whom are important defenders, all missed the Minnesota game. During that contest, Gerald McCoy and Lavonte David, the two best players on the stop unit, were knocked out with injuries. David will miss a couple of games with an ankle sprain, while McCoy’s status is unknown.

With so many question marks, it’s difficult to determine what will happen on this side of the ball. We’ll have a better idea later in the week, but if the Buccaneers are down several defenders again, the Giants will be able to move the chains consistently.

TAMPA BAY OFFENSE: The Giants have some injury question marks on defense as well. There’s some talk that Olivier Vernon will miss this game, and New York could be without linebacker B.J. Goodson again. Both injuries would be enormous. Buccaneers left tackle Donovan Smith is worse than Ereck Flowers, so he needs all the help he can get. He’d stand no chance against Vernon. Meanwhile, Cameron Brate would have a big game against the Goodson-less linebacking corps, which hasn’t been able to stop tight ends at all.

That said, it could still be difficult for the Buccaneers to move the ball. They have no running game, while their offensive line, aside from Demar Dotson, is pretty atrocious. Snacks Harrison won’t have much of an issue dominating the interior.

Janoris Jenkins and Dominique Rodgers-Cromartie, with the help of Landon Collins, should be able to do enough to slow down Mike Evans and DeSean Jackson. That’s exactly why it’ll be important for the Buccaneers to see Vernon and Goodson out of the lineup, as their best options will be limited in this affair.

RECAP: The look-ahead line for this game was Giants +6. I was excited to take that, but this spread opened +4, and was quickly bet down by the sharps to +3. I think that was a bold move, considering how many injury question marks there are in this contest. Half of Tampa Bay’s defense is questionable!

I may alter this pick depending on who’s ruled in or out, but for now, I’m on the Giants. They should be able to engineer enough scoring drives to pull the upset if several Tampa defenders are out of the lineup. Also, the Buccaneers have to play Thursday night against the Patriots, so they may not be focused. The Giants, meanwhile, will be desperate to avoid 0-4.

This is a non-bet for now, but I’ll definitely revisit this later in the week. I may switch to the Buccaneers, or I might put a couple of units on New York if the Buccaneers are missing everyone again.

THURSDAY THOUGHTS: If you thought there were many injury question marks in the Steelers-Ravens game, you haven’t seen anything yet! We already know that Lavonte David and Kwon Alexander are out for the Buccaneers. T.J. Ward, the team’s best safety, is looking sketchy for Week 4 as well. Gerald McCoy’s status is unknown. Brent Grimes and Chris Baker are at least practicing. Meanwhile, the Giants could be without Olivier Vernon, who is missing practice. B.J. Goodson is at least limited. We’ll see what happens, but it’s important to note that the sharps were on the Giants at +4 and +3.5, but not so much now.

SATURDAY NOTES: I was hoping for a great opportunity to bet against the Buccaneers, who were missing more than half of their defensive starters by the fourth quarter of last week’s game. However, Gerald McCoy and Brent Grimes both appear as though they’ll suit up. I still like the Giants – Tampa will be down two linebackers and a safety – but I was hoping for more Buccaneer injuries so that I could make a decent bet on the Giants. There’s just no value at +3.

SUNDAY MORNING NOTES: It’s official: All of the +3s are gone. The sharps have bet this number through a key number. When that happens, the boosk are confident on one side, and given all of Tampa’s injuries, I have to believe that’s the Giants.

FINAL THOUGHTS: The Buccaneers are missing some defensive players, but everyone who was questionable for this game – on both sides – will be active (including Olivier Vernon and Gerald McCoy). Unfortunately, the +3s are long gone because of the sharp money on the Giants. I don’t want to bet +2.5, but I think New York is the right side.

The Psychology. Edge: Giants.

The Buccaneers have to play on Thursday, while the Giants will be desperate to avoid 0-4.

The Vegas. Edge: Buccaneers.

The sharps are all over the Giants.

Percentage of money on New York: 72% (23,000 bets)

The Trends. Edge: Giants.

Road Team is 76-46 ATS in Buccaneers games since 2009.

Giants are 47-33 ATS on the road since 2006 as long as they’re not favored by 3.5 or more.

Eli Manning is 40-31 ATS as an underdog since 2007.

Buccaneers are 20-42 ATS at home in the previous 62 instances.

Opening Line: Buccaneers -4.

Opening Total: 43.5.

Weather: .

Week 4 NFL Pick: Giants 20, Buccaneers 17
Giants +2.5 (0 Units) — Correct; $0
Under 45.5 (0.5 Units) — Incorrect; -$55
Buccaneers 25, Giants 23

Philadelphia Eagles (2-1) at Los Angeles Chargers (0-3)
Line: Chargers by 2. Total: 47.5.
Las Vegas Hilton Advance Point Spread: Eagles -1.
Walt’s Calculated Line: Eagles -4.5.
Sunday, Oct 1, 4:05 PM
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The Game. Edge: Eagles.

Make sure you get your pick in for the WalterFootball.com 2017 NFL Survivor Pool. You’d think that we barely lost anyone last week because the Patriots and Packers eked out victories. However, we had 1,087 remaining entering Week 3 (1,630 to start the year), and now we have just 780 remaining. We lost about 300 people because they decided to save teams and instead made picks like the Dolphins, Ravens and Raiders. Do not save teams!

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PHILADELPHIA OFFENSE: The Chargers have a number of problems, some of which are on this side of the ball. Their linebacking corps is poor, while their secondary, aside from Casey Hayward, is pretty atrocious, though cornerback Trevor Williams and Desmond King have shown some promise, but are still unproven. The defensive schemes the Chargers came up with against the Chiefs made no sense, as they had a linebacker cover Tyreek Hill on his touchdown.

Still, it’s not all bad, as San Diego has Melvin Ingram and Joey Bosa, both of whom dominated the Chiefs. Kansas City’s tackles aren’t as good as Philadelphia’s, however. Jason Peters and Lane Johnson form one of the top bookend duos in the NFL, and they should be able to keep Ingram and Bosa out of the backfield for the most part.

It’s pretty key that the Eagles can negate the Chargers’ primary defensive strength, so I think they’ll be able to have lots of offensive success in this contest. Zach Ertz has proven to be unstoppable thus far, and while the Chargers slowed down Travis Kelce last week, I’ll be surprised if they can do the same thing to Ertz. Meanwhile, LeGarrette Blount, Wendell Smallwood and Corey Clement should be able to pick chunks of yardage on the ground, just as Kareem Hunt did this past Sunday. They’re obviously not as good as Hunt, but they’ll have better blocking.

SAN DIEGO OFFENSE: Remember that I pointed out that Philadelphia could negate the Chargers’ primary defensive strength? The Eagles also rush the passer extremely well, but San Diego won’t be able to do anything about it. Whereas the Eagles have one of the top offensive lines in the NFL, the Chargers have major issues blocking. The right side of the line is horrific, and that’s exactly where Brandon Graham and Fletcher Cox are stationed.

Philip Rivers will have to continue to force the issue, which means more interceptions. No one throws more picks than Rivers. It’s not all his fault, as he doesn’t have much support, but the Eagles, who could welcome back Rodney McLeod following his Week 3 absence, should be able to accumulate some turnovers.

I don’t think the Chargers will have much success with Melvin Gordon either. The Eagles stop the run well, and as long as they have Jordan Hicks back – Doug Pederson called him “day to day” – they’ll be able to limit Gordon as a receiver out of the backfield. It’s also worth noting that Gordon may not be 100 percent. He left last week’s game with an injury after being limited in practice.

RECAP: This is one of the top plays of the week for me. I love the Eagles and hate the Chargers, so this is a five-unit wager.

I don’t understand how Philadelphia is an underdog. The Eagles are a top-10 NFL team, while the Chargers are horrible. Yes, horrible. They are losers. They’re the guy who doesn’t get asked out on a date, or the person always passed up for a promotion. They just find ways to lose. In his past 35 starts, Rivers is just 9-26. No current elite or second-tier quarterback has had a stretch like that in his career!

I just don’t see San Diego winning this game. And yes, San Diego. The Chargers are getting no support in Los Angeles, so I’m calling them the San Diego Chargers from now on. It’s so bad that there will almost certainly be more Eagles fans in the stands than Charger supporters. I’m only giving the Chargers just one point for being at home, so my line is Eagles -4.5. That’s way off of what the spread currently is, so I will once again be wagering big against San Diego.

THURSDAY THOUGHTS: Argh, I may have to drop units on this game. Doug Pederson said that Fletcher Cox was day to day earlier in the week, but now Pederson is saying Cox is week to week. Cox is the team’s best defensive player, so his absence would be huge. On the bright side, it’s looking like Rodney McLeod will play. I don’t know. It seems like the Chargers will find a way to lose, regardless. Hopefully this spread continues to rise.

SATURDAY NOTES: This spread keeps rising, as the sharps once again love the Chargers. The sharps are zero for two on Charger bets this year – unless they had +3.5 in Week 1 – so I don’t understand why they keep betting on such a terrible team. It would be amazing if this hits +3. Now, I’m aware that Fletcher Cox is out. This is a big deal because Cox is arguably the top 4-3 defensive tackle in the NFL. The Eagles won’t be able to take advantage of the Chargers’ poor interior front without him, but they will get to Philip Rivers on the edge. I still love the Eagles here, though I will admit that I considered dropping this to four units. Oh, and I posted this in the Bengals-Browns notes, but I thought this was interesting: How do you think 0-3 favorites have fared over the years? You’d think they’d do well, as they’re expected to win while being desperate. Instead, they’re just 10-20-1 against the spread in the past 25 years. This line is +2.5 in many books, but I’d rather have +2 -105, available at both Bovada and CRIS. Also, the Eagles are one leg of my teaser.

SUNDAY MORNING NOTES: The Eagles are +2 across the board, as the +2.5 -105 that was available Saturday evening is gone, unfortunately. I still love Philadelphia here, as the dreadful Chargers shouldn’t be favored over a top-10 team.

FINAL THOUGHTS: Rodney McLeod is active for the Eagles, which is good news against Philip Rivers. This line has remained +2 across the board, and I still love Philadelphia.

The Psychology. Edge: None.
No edge found.

The Vegas. Edge: None.
Equal action.

Percentage of money on Los Angeles: 52% (22,000 bets)

The Trends. Edge: Eagles.

Eagles are 27-17 ATS as road underdogs since 2005.

Opening Line: Chargers -1.

Opening Total: 46.5.

Weather: .

Week 4 NFL Pick: Eagles 31, Chargers 20
Eagles +2 (5 Units) — Correct; +$500
Over 47.5 (0 Units) — Correct; $0
Eagles 26, Chargers 24

San Francisco 49ers (0-3) at Arizona Cardinals (1-2)
Line: Cardinals by 6.5. Total: 44.5.
Las Vegas Hilton Advance Point Spread: Cardinals -7.
Walt’s Calculated Line: Cardinals -5.
Sunday, Oct 1, 4:05 PM
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The Game. Edge: None.

Emmitt on the Brink is back for Season 10 (I can’t believe this is the 10th year I’ve been doing this!) In Episode 3, Brock Osweiler hosts the ESPYs, while Evil Emmitt meets with his successor.

ARIZONA OFFENSE: The Cardinals had a terrific opening drive against the Cowboys on Monday night, but mustered only 10 points after that. They made a number of dumb mistakes, but their primary downfall was their offensive line. They couldn’t block for Carson Palmer, who took six sacks. He’s been brought down 11 times in the past couple of weeks despite battling two defenses that don’t have tremendous pass rushes.

Part of the problem has been injuries. D.J. Humphries and Mike Iupati being out has been huge. However, the other part is Bruce Arians’ sudden incompetence. There was no reason to shift Jared Veldheer to right tackle. When Arians made the move, I questioned it, and so many others did as well. It has completely backfired.

For this game, the 49ers don’t have a good edge rush, so Veldheer won’t be exposed as much. However, the 49ers do have DeForest Buckner and Arik Armstead to dominate the interior. Buckner is playing on a Pro Bowl level, and Arizona has no one to block him. Palmer will once again be under heavy pressure, so I can’t see him having much success despite battling a defense featuring an inept cornerback group.

SAN FRANCISCO OFFENSE: The 49ers had one of the worst blocking units in the NFL last year, but that’s no longer the case. They aren’t great, or anything, but tackles Joe Staley and Trent Brown are both playing on a high level, as is guard Brandon Fusco. The 49ers have the better line heading into this game, and they should be able to defend Arizona’s defensive front. Chandler Jones, who had his way with a struggling Tyron Smith, probably won’t win many battles versus Staley.

Carlos Hyde should once again have a strong performance as a result. The Cardinals clamped down on Ezekiel Elliott, but they were playing with a lot of emotion on a nationally televised home game. I think Hyde, who is in tremendous shape, will have more success running behind Brown.

It’ll be up to Brian Hoyer not to screw up like he did early in the Thursday night affair. Hoyer set his team back with a horrible pick-six, but he rebounded and played well in the second half once the Rams lost Lamarcus Joyner. Hoyer, however, won’t be able to rely on Pierre Garcon because of Patrick Peterson, so he’ll need to go elsewhere. Considering that Garcon is his only downfield play-maker, this could be a problem.

RECAP: This spread is too high. The Cardinals can’t block whatsoever, so their offense is too inconsistent for them to be laying a touchdown against anyone, even at home. The 49ers, meanwhile, have been competitive ever since their opening-week loss to the Panthers. They nearly took down the Seahawks, and they had a late charge versus the Rams after falling behind early due to Hoyer’s aforementioned pick-six.

The 49ers have had extra time to prepare for this game, while the Cardinals are playing on short rest. I think that’ll be beneficial for San Francisco, so I like the visitor to cover the spread and perhaps even pull the outright upset. I’m taking the 49ers for three units.

THURSDAY THOUGHTS: The sharps are all over the 49ers, which is not a surprise. Arizona isn’t good enough to be favored by a touchdown.

SATURDAY NOTES: If you’ve ever needed proof that players are overly optimistic about their injuries, take a look at Mike Iupati, who told reporters he would play Sunday. Instead, he just landed on injured reserve. Whoops! D.J. Humphries could play for the Cardinals, but it’s unclear how healthy he’ll be. Deone Bucannon’s return will provide a boost as well, but I still think this line is too high for a bad Arizona team. I’m on the 49ers for a medium-sized wager, but I’d like a better number than +7 -120 or +6.5. Unfortunately, the sharps are on the 49ers, so I don’t think the line will rise.

SUNDAY MORNING NOTES: I’m still holding out hope for a +7, but the sharps have been all over the 49ers, so I can’t see this spread rising.

FINAL THOUGHTS: Carlos Hyde is playing, so I still really like the 49ers. The sharps do as well, as the spread has dropped to +6 in several books, but is still at +6.5 at CRIS and the Westgate, if you’re in Vegas. I would not take +7 -130, which is Bovada’s line.

The Psychology. Edge: 49ers.

The Cardinals put a lot of energy into the Dallas game, but came up short. The 49ers, meanwhile, have had extra time to prepare.

The Vegas. Edge: Cardinals.
The sharps are all over the 49ers.

Percentage of money on San Francisco: 62% (12,000 bets)

The Trends. Edge: TBA.

History: Cardinals have won 5 of the last 6 meetings.

Opening Line: Cardinals -7.

Opening Total: 44.5.

Weather: Dome.

Week 4 NFL Pick: Cardinals 21, 49ers 20
49ers +6.5 (3 Units) — Correct; +$300
Under 44.5 (0.5 Units) — Correct; +$50
Cardinals 18, 49ers 15

Oakland Raiders (2-1) at Denver Broncos (2-1)
Line: Broncos by 3.5. Total: 44.5.
Las Vegas Hilton Advance Point Spread: Broncos -1.5.
Walt’s Calculated Line: Broncos -2.5.
Sunday, Oct 1, 4:25 PM
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The Game. Edge: Broncos.

A reminder that Jerks of the Week for this week is up, so just click the link. This week’s jerks entry is On the Road to Margate. This includes a woman who propositioned me for a blow job at a gas station!

OAKLAND OFFENSE: The Raiders weren’t able to do anything against the Redskins. In fact, they would’ve been shut out had the Redskins not turned the ball over twice. They couldn’t block, run the ball or make basic catches. It was a pathetic effort, as it seemed as though they were looking ahead to this game.

I expect a better effort from Oakland’s offensive line in this contest, but it may not be enough. Donald Penn will keep Shaq Barrett out of the backfield, but the primary weakness up front is at right tackle with Marshall Newhouse. He’ll be going up against Ambassador Von Miller, who should win that matchup quite easily. Derek Carr will have more time to throw in this game than he did last week, but with Miller charging into the backfield, it may not be enough, especially considering that Michael Crabtree could miss this game with a chest injury. Amari Cooper, who is dropping everything in sight, has a tough matchup against Denver’s “No Fly Zone” secondary.

The Raiders were able to pound the rock effectively in their victory over the Broncos last year. I don’t think they’ll be able to do that in this game despite having Marshawn Lynch. The Broncos have improved tremendously against the run, thanks to Shelby Harris, Adam Gotsis and Domata Peko. They’ve limited Ezekiel Elliott and LeSean McCoy in recent weeks, so I don’t think they’ll have much of an issue with Lynch.

DENVER OFFENSE: What I wrote about the Raiders’ inability to block Miller could also be applied to the Broncos’ efforts against Khalil Mack. Denver has an even worse right tackle, as Menelik Watson is atrocious. He doesn’t stand a chance against Mack, though the rest of the offensive line has improved by leaps and bounds compared to where it was last year.

The Broncos would like to establish C.J. Anderson so Trevor Siemian doesn’t have to throw as much this week. Ronald Leary will certainly open up some nice running lanes, but the Raiders have done well versus the rush for the most part. Where they struggle is in the linebacking corps, so Anderson and Jamaal Charles will be more effective catching passes out of the backfield.

The Raiders also have their issues in the secondary, so Siemian will have more success than last week. Still, he regressed versus Buffalo for sure, and he was fortunate not to have more turnovers than just his two interceptions. He could bounce back at home versus a worse defense, but Mack may have something to say about that.

RECAP: I mentioned that the Jets-Jaguars game was a difficult one to call. I think this one is as well. I made this line -2.5, and that’s exactly what it is, though there’s -120 juice on Denver.

I don’t know where to go with this. The Raiders have the better offensive line and passing game, but the Broncos have the superior defense and rushing attack. They also happen to be at home, but I think the Raiders being embarrassed on national TV could serve them well. I’m going to side with them, but I’m not very confident in the selection.

THURSDAY THOUGHTS: This is another game I’m passing on. These are two even-ish teams, and the spread is exactly where it should be. Pass.

SATURDAY NOTES: Got a text from Matvei: “As of Wednesday afternoon, the LVH hadn’t taken a single straight bet on the Raiders.” That’s incredible. This line has jumped to +3, so I like the Raiders a bit more. The contrarian in me just wants to make a small wager on them. Michael Crabtree is doubtful, so perhaps this line will move to +3.5.

SUNDAY MORNING NOTES: Michael Crabtree is officially out, so this line is up to -3.5. I’m tempted to bet the Raiders, but as I’ve said before, when the line moves through a key number, the books are very confident on one side, and I think it’s more likely Denver than Oakland. I may switch this pick to the Broncos, but I’m not sure.

FINAL THOUGHTS: I’m not going to change my pick. I’ll probably regret that, but perhaps Derek Carr will be able to get within the back door to cover. I don’t want to bet this game whatsoever.

The Psychology. Edge: None.
No edge found.

The Vegas. Edge: Raiders.

Everyone is betting on the Broncos.

Percentage of money on Denver: 70% (24,000 bets)

The Trends. Edge: None.

History: Road Team has won 12 of the last 18 meetings (Broncos 9 of last 11).

Opening Line: Broncos -2.5.

Opening Total: 47.

Weather: .

Week 4 NFL Pick: Broncos 26, Raiders 24
Raiders +3.5 (0 Units) — Incorrect; $0
Over 44.5 (0 Units) — Incorrect; $0
Broncos 16, Raiders 10

Indianapolis Colts (1-2) at Seattle Seahawks (1-2)
Line: Seahawks by 13. Total: 42.5.
Las Vegas Hilton Advance Point Spread: Seahawks -14.5.
Walt’s Calculated Line: Seahawks -8.5.
Sunday, Oct 1, 8:30 PM
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The Game. Edge: None.

It’s time for a Ross Avila update! If you somehow missed it, Ross Avila, some stupid kid who is desperate for attention on my Facebook wall, challenged me this summer:

If you think this is dumb, don’t tell that to Ross. This means the world to him:

Ross will be posting his picks every Saturday on my Facebook wall, so I’ll relay them here when he gets around to his selections. Mine will be the five I pick for the SuperContest, which I’ll analyze here each Saturday. I’ll also post the picks of the top entrants, so check that link out Saturday evening.

Ross went 2-2-1 in Week 1, and he was just 2-3 in Week 2. Alas, things fell apart for him in Week 3, as he went 0-5. He is now 4-10-1 on the year. This prompted a text from a friend, who was amused by this competition:

Poor Ross. Literally, poor Ross. If he can’t make money off sports gambling, how will he buy more fancy bandannas?

Ross’ strategy this week is going against my picks, as he has realized that he is incapable of handicapping. He’s going with the Seahawks, Bengals, Cowboys, Redskins and Chargers.

SEATTLE OFFENSE: How in the world are the Seahawks going to block the Colts? I don’t imagine that question is on the minds of many bettors because Indianapolis’ defense is considered to be one of the league’s worst. However, the Colts have improved their edge rush by acquiring Jabaal Sheard and John Simon, both of whom are playing well. They both have immense mismatches in this game by going up against Rees Odhiambo and Germain Ifedi.

The Seahawks won’t run well either, as the Colts have clamped down on the run well thus far because of Johnathan Hankins. The one area the Seahawks could exploit is the middle of the field with Jimmy Graham, as Indianapolis’ linebacking corps is pretty poor. However, Wilson will need to find enough time to locate Graham for those connections.

INDIANAPOLIS OFFENSE: When the Colts were blown out against the Rams in Week 1, it appeared as though they were the worst team in the NFL. That is definitely not the case anymore. Jacoby Brissett has proven to be a major upgrade over Scott Tolzien, and this is no fluke. Brissett was a third-round pick in 2016, and Bill Parcells has opined that Brissett will be a solid starting quarterback in the NFL. He certainly looks the part so far!

Brissett faces a tough challenge on paper in Seattle. The crowd will be loud, and the pass rush will be ferocious. I actually think the Colts could be OK on the edge, but Michael Bennett will make life extremely difficult for both Brissett and Frank Gore in the interior. Gore won’t find much running room, while Brissett will have to use his legs to escape the pocket.

However, there’s an important thing to point out, and it’s that the Seattle cornerbacks are terrible right now. The Seahawks have nothing across from Richard Sherman, and Sherman is having an awful season because he’s playing hurt. Sherman couldn’t even stop Eric Decker last week despite the fact that Decker had done nothing prior to that game. Now, he’ll be tasked with covering T.Y. Hilton, who embarrassed the Browns. I don’t think Sherman will be able to stick with Hilton, so that’ll be an opportunity Brissett could exploit.

RECAP: This spread is almost as absurd as the Cowboys-Rams line. Seriously, when I saw this number, my eyes nearly popped out of my head. I made this spread Seahawks -8.5, yet they’re 13-point favorites? Uhh… why?

What the hell have the Seahawks done to be laying nearly two touchdowns against anyone? They’re 1-2 right now, and their sole victory was a three-point win over the 49ers. Granted, this game is in Seattle, where the crowd will be going nuts, but the Seahawks’ offensive line is too inept for the team to be favored by double digits over anyone.

I love the Colts here, and it wouldn’t surprise me if they won outright. This will be a defensive grinder with several field goals. The Seahawks should prevail, but Indianapolis will keep the score close and won’t have much trouble covering as a result.

You might think I’m crazy, but this is going to be a four-unit wager. I just think this spread is absurdly high. Thirteen points? Can the Seahawks even score 13 themselves?

THURSDAY THOUGHTS: There was some hope that Colts center Ryan Kelly would return with Vontae Davis, but he’s not likely to play. Still, I love the Colts as near-two-touchdown underdogs. The Seahawks’ offense is too inept for the team to be favored by 13.

SATURDAY NOTES: I like the Colts a lot, but it does bother me that their toughest opponent thus far has been the Rams. The Seahawks aren’t much better than the Rams right now because of their blocking woes, but still. Indianapolis should cover this absurdly high line, as the Seahawks struggled to put the 49ers away at home two weeks ago.

SUNDAY MORNING NOTES: This spread was +13 -105 when the Saints-Dolphins game started. People have been betting the Colts, as the line has dropped to +12.5, and those people aren’t the public.

FINAL THOUGHTS: The sharps are all over the Colts, as they’ve moved this line down to +12 at Pinnacle and CRIS. Fortunately, there are square books out there. Bovada still has the Colts listed at +13 -105, so I’m definitely going to take that for four units.

The Psychology. Edge: None.
No edge found.

The Vegas. Edge: None.
Equal action.

Percentage of money on Indianapolis: 55% (15,000 bets)

The Trends. Edge: Seahawks.

Seahawks are 41-21 ATS as home favorites since 2007.

Opening Line: Seahawks -13.5.

Opening Total: 41.

Weather: .

Week 4 NFL Pick: Seahawks 16, Colts 13
Colts +13 -105 (4 Units) — Incorrect; -$420
Under 42.5 (0 Units) — Incorrect; $0
Seahawks 46, Colts 18

Washington Redskins (2-1) at Kansas City Chiefs (3-0)
Line: Chiefs by 7. Total: 48.
Las Vegas Hilton Advance Point Spread: Chiefs -8.5.
Walt’s Calculated Line: Chiefs -6.
Monday, Oct 2, 8:30 PM
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The Game. Edge: Chiefs.

This week on ESPN, we’re going to have some bald dude and Jon Gruden calling the shots instead the great preseason homers like Kevin Reilly, Ron Wolfley and Don Tollefson, inept ESPN guys Emmitt, Herman Edwards and Matt Millen, and aloof people like Dan Fouts. Here’s what it would sound like if these seven dudes (and some special guests) were calling this game:

Reilly: Welcome to the city of Kansas City, which is in Missouri. Stupid! What’s next, is Philadelphia not going to be in Pennsylvania anymore? What about New York, is that not going to be in New York, anymore? Anyway, the Washington Redturds are taking on the Kansas City Chiefs, who cheated when they beat my Philadelphia Eagles. We’re joined by two guests tonight, but before we get to them, let’s get Emmitt’s opinion.

Emmitt: Chief, I do not understanding what you saying. How can New York not be in New York? He the biggest city in the world and he have the Empire Strikes Back State Building. What gonna happen if New York not going to be in New York? That are like saying Emmitt not really Emmitt, or Chief not really Chief.

Herm: NEW YORK’S A STATE! IT’S A STATE! A REAL STATE! NOT A STATE OF MIND! NO MIND! NO BRAINS! NEW YORK’S A STATE! AND A CITY! STATE AND CITY! CITY AND STATE! CITY AND CITY! STATE AND STATE! CITY AND STATE AND CITY! STATE AND CITY AND STATE! STATE AND STATE AND CITY AND CITY AND STATE AND CITY AND STATE AND CITY AND CITY AND… uhh… ummm…

Reilly: Shut up, idiot. Anyway, my producers are asking me to introduce two people, Michael Smith and some sort of J-mail Hill? Is that like G-mail except there’s a “J?” Mother won’t let me have e-mail because she says predators will come to get me.

Jemele Hill: Kevin Reilly, you are a white supremacist, and you’ve surrounded yourself with white supremacists! You screwed up my name on purpose, which makes you a white supremacist! And who is this “mother?” Your KKK leader!?

Michael Smith: Now, let’s calm down, Jemele. Let’s list our favorite salads like we did last night on our awesome show that everyone watches. No. 5 is Cobb salad. No. 4 is Caesar salad…

Tollefson: Whoa, whoa, whoa, let’s not change the subject. I am appalled that you would call me a white supremacist since I hang out with KKK member Kevin Reilly. All of the women I force to cook and clean naked for me are white. Most of the people I’ve conned over the years are white. If I were a white supremacist, that wouldn’t be true!

Millen: I, too, am not a white supremacist like Kevin Reilly even though I’m surrounded by him. I only use a few white kielbasas when I ram them up men’s backsides. Michael Smith, what do you think? How about some Polish kielbasa in my hotel room tonight?

Reilly: Wait a second, why does everyone refer to me as white supremacist!? Mother says she won’t give me my allowance if I’m racist!

Wolfley: DON’T WORRY, KEVIN. I AM A WHITE SUPREMACIST LIKE YOU, TOO. BUT ONLY TODAY. I AM ONLY A WHITE SUPREMACIST WITH LIPS THE SECOND DAY OF EACH MONTH. ON THE THIRD DAY OF EACH MONTH, I AM AN ALARM CLOCK WITH LIPS. ON THE FOURTH DAY OF EACH MONTH, I AM A CACTUS WITH LIPS. ON THE FIFTH DAY OF EACH MONTH, I AM A GLASS HALF-FULL OF STRAWBERRY MILK WITH LIPS. BASICALLY, I AM RANDOM OBJECTS WITH LIPS.

Fouts: And here’s what that gentleman G-mail Hill means by white supremacist. There’s a color white. It’s the opposite of black, which is on the other end of the rainbow. A rainbow is a bow of rain with lots of colors. One side is white and the other side is black. This is basically like the game of chess, where you have a king, a queen, a prince, a princess and a horse. The other end of that is supremacist, and I have to be honest with you. I’m not sure what that means. It sounds like supermarket, where you can buy food. And food is good, so if you’re a white supremacist, like Kevin Reilly, you are a guy who plays the game of checkers in a supermarket.

Reilly: I’m not a white supremacist! Stop saying that! If mother hears that, she won’t let me have the Carson Wentz posters I asked for!

Charles Davis: Kevin, it sounds like you want to talk about supremacists, Kevin. Let’s start with white supremacists, Kevin. How about black supremacists, Kevin. Let’s not forget Asian supremacists, Kevin. How about we talk about Native American supremacists, Kevin? Let’s try discussing Swedish supremacists, Kevin. Don’t forget South Korean supremacists, Kevin. Why don’t you name a sort of supremacist, Kevin? Oh, you’re guessing pepperoni pizza supremacist, Kevin? There’s no such thing as that, Kevin. Looks like you’re wrong again, Kevin.

Reilly: SHUT THE F*** UP AND LEAVE ME ALONE, CHARLES DAVIS! IF ME YELLING AT YOU MAKES ME A WHITE SUPREMACIST, THEN I AM A WHITE SUPREMACIST! I DON’T CARE ANYMORE; I JUST WANT YOU TO GET KIDNAPPED BY ALIENS SO YOU DON’T BOTHER ME ANYMORE!!! We’ll be back after this!

WASHINGTON OFFENSE: Kirk Cousins had a tremendous performance against the Raiders, which was impressive in live action until I remembered how poor Oakland’s defense was. Kansas City’s stop unit is obviously much better, so will Cousins still perform on a high level against this stop unit?

Well, the one thing helping the Redskins is their offensive line improving last week. The blockers struggled mightily versus the Eagles, but have improved steadily since. Guard Brandon Scherff finally performed well, while Morgan Moses held his own against Khalil Mack. That’s a good sign, as he’ll have another tough matchup against Justin Houston in this contest. Meanwhile, Chris Jones figures to have a dominant performance in the interior, which will put Cousins under heavy pressure, all while nullifying the ground game.

Cousins, however, has lots of weapons at his disposal. Jordan Reed figures to return to take advantage of Eric Berry’s absence. Jamison Crowder has a tremendous mismatch against inept slot corner Phillip Gaines. Also, Chris Thompson’s usage has been instrumental in Washington’s resurgence. Thompson is a tremendous weapon as a pass-catcher out of the backfield, and he should continue to help the Redskins move the sticks. Note that I haven’t mentioned Terrelle Pryor yet, and that’s because he and Cousins still haven’t developed any sort of chemistry.

KANSAS CITY OFFENSE: Kareem Hunt is currently on pace to rush for 2,138 yards, which would break Eric Dickerson’s single-season record of 2,105. Hunt, however, has his work cut out for him in this game, as the Redskins completely shut down Marshawn Lynch on Sunday night. The Raiders block better than the Chiefs do, and yet Lynch struggled to even get a couple of yards on each attempt. Washington has an improving, young front, led by rookie Jonathan Allen and second-year pro Matt Ioannidis.

Meanwhile, the Redskins are potent on the edge with Ryan Kerrigan, Preston Smith and Junior Galette. Kansas City’s tackles struggled to block Melvin Ingram and Joey Bosa last week. While Smith and Galette are not Ingram and Bosa, Kerrigan is a tremendous player and should have no issues getting around the struggling Mitchell Schwartz to help limit Kansas City’s offense.

That said, Alex Smith doesn’t need much time in the pocket because he releases the ball quickly and picks up chunks of yardage on the ground with well-timed scrambles. Also, Travis Kelce figures to have a huge outing. The Redskins aren’t equipped to deal with dynamic tight ends. Zach Ertz and rookie Gerald Everett both have performed well against them, so I have no idea how they’ll deal with Kelce.

RECAP: This line is a touchdown, but I made the spread six, so there’s a bit of value with the Redskins. Despite what Washington did Sunday night, the team still seems a bit undervalued. The Redskins lost Week 1 to the Eagles, which may have thrown everyone off the scent because they were able to defeat their next two opponents. Plus, Philadelphia is a very good team, so there was no shame in that loss.

The Redskins are a tough team that should be able to keep this game close, while the Chiefs aren’t the most explosive bunch, despite what happened in Week 1. Ever since, they’ve averaged 18.5 points per game if you exclude a couple of late, fluky touchdowns that they scored versus the Eagles and Chargers. They’re the sort of team that allows a competitive squad like the Redskins to hang around, so I think this will be a close game.

THURSDAY THOUGHTS: I don’t have any updates for this game. I still like the Redskins for a couple of units.

SATURDAY NOTES: Eric Fisher popped up on the injury report, missing practice Saturday. Fisher isn’t very good, but the Chiefs don’t have a viable backup plan behind him. I’m not exactly sure what they’ll do if Fisher is out, but it might involve Cameron Erving playing, which would be a complete disaster. I think this line is a bit too high even with Fisher in the lineup, so I’ll be looking to increase my wager if he misses this contest.

SUNDAY MORNING NOTES: I’m thinking about moving this to three units, but I’d like a +7 -110 number to pull the trigger.

FINAL THOUGHTS: Late sharp action jumped on the Redskins, moving the line down to +6.5 at CRIS and Westgate. This is understandable, as it seems like the spread is too high. The Chiefs, who don’t play very well at home, generally allow teams to hang around, and I think Washington should stay within a touchdown. This spread is +7.5 -115 at Bovada, and I’m going to increase my unit count to three. I would still like it for three units at +7, but only two units at +6.5.

The Psychology. Edge: None.
No edge found.

The Vegas. Edge: Redskins.

Slight edge on the Chiefs.

Percentage of money on Kansas City: 66% 60,000 bets)

The Trends. Edge: .

Opening Line: Chiefs -7.

Opening Total: 49.5.

Weather: .

Week 4 NFL Pick: Chiefs 27, Redskins 24
Redskins +7.5 -115 (3 Units) — Incorrect; -$345
Over 48 (0 Units) — Correct; $0
Chiefs 29, Redskins 20

Week 4 NFL Picks – Early Games
Chicago at Green Bay, New Orleans at Miami, Jacksonville at NY Jets, Cincinnati at Cleveland, LA Rams at Dallas, Buffalo at Atlanta, Carolina at New England, Pittsburgh at Baltimore, Tennessee at Houston, Detroit at Minnesota

Prop/Teaser/Parlay Picks
A list of some of my favorite team/player prop picks this week
(Offense & defensive ROY picks to be counted whenever winners are announced.) Picks carried over on a week-to-week basis will be in black.

Teaser: Lions +8.5, Eagles +8.5 (2 Units) — Correct; +$200

2024 NFL Mock Draft - April 16

NFL Power Rankings - Feb. 22

Fantasy Football Rankings - Feb. 19

NFL Picks - Feb. 12

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My Team-by-Team ATS Record
This section shows how well I do when picking each team this year. The purpose is to see how well I read each team. Pushes are not displayed. Winning/losing streak in parentheses.

Cowboys: 8-9	Bears: 11-4	Bucs: 6-11	49ers: 10-7
Eagles: 7-7	Lions: 9-8	Falcons: 8-9	Cardinals: 8-9
Giants: 7-9	Packers: 5-12	Panthers: 8-9	Rams: 8-9
Redskins: 14-3	Vikings: 6-9	Saints: 10-7	Seahawks: 7-9

Bills: 9-7	Bengals: 12-5	Colts: 7-10	Broncos: 9-6
Dolphins: 6-11	Browns: 11-5	Jaguars: 13-4	Chargers: 8-9
Jets: 8-9	Ravens: 11-6	Texans: 5-12	Chiefs: 5-10
Patriots: 7-9	Steelers: 11-6	Titans: 9-8	Raiders: 6-9

Divisional: 50-35 (2011-22: 558-526)	2x Game Edge: 36-24 (2011-22: 363-361)	2x Motivation Edge: 32-36 (2011-22: 478-405)	2x Spread Edge: 41-40 (2011-22: 197-168)
2x Vegas Edge: 41-38 (2011-22: 407-406)	2x Trend Edge: 15-13 (2011-22: 306-279)	Double Edge: 17-13 (2011-22: 190-172)	Triple Edge: 1-1 (2011-22: 32-36)

2024 NFL Mock Draft

2024 NFL Draft Day 3 Sleepers

NBA Picks Against the Spread

NFL Hot Press: Penix in Play for Raiders

2024 NFL Draft Scouting Report: Nehemiah Pritchett

2024 NFL Draft Scouting Report: Jarvis Brownlee Jr.

NFL Picks Against the Spread: Week 4, 2017

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