Week 11 write-up. If you don't quite understand the line, total or anything else, go to my Sports Betting FAQ.

Green Bay Packers (9-1) at Detroit Lions (6-4)
Line: Packers by 3.5. Total: 48.5.
Walt's Projected Line (Before Week 11): Packers -3.
Walt's Projected Line (After Week 11): Packers -3.5.
Happy Thanksgiving, 12:30 ET - Buy Tickets

The Game. Edge: .
Injuries: PACKERS: OUT: RB DeShawn Wynn, S Nick Collins. LIONS: OUT: S Daniel Bullocks.




The Psychology. Edge: Lions.
This is obviously a big game for the Lions. Coming off two consecutive losses and two straight defeats on Thanksgiving, they need to win. The Packers, meanwhile, could be looking ahead to Dallas.


The Vegas. Edge: Lions.
The Packers should be a pretty big play for everyone on Thanksgiving. The public is down on the Lions, who have dropped two in a row.

Percentage of money on Green Bay: 95% (14,000 bets)


The Trends. Edge: None.

History: Packers have won 11 of the last 13 meetings.

Brett Favre is 15-30 ATS (20-25 straight up) in domes.

Opening Line: Packers -3.5.

Opening Total: 47.5.

Weather: .


Fantasy Spin.

Start Em: .

Sit Em: .


Prediction:

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New York Jets (2-8) at Dallas Cowboys (9-1)
Line: Cowboys by 14. Total: 47.5.
Walt's Projected Line (Before Week 11): Cowboys -14.5.
Walt's Projected Line (After Week 11): Cowboys -14.
Happy Thanksgiving, 4:15 ET - Buy Tickets

The Game. Edge: .
Injuries: JETS: OUT: LB Jonathan Vilma. COWBOYS: OUT: WR Terry Glenn, NT Jason Ferguson.




The Psychology. Edge: Jets.
Like the Packers, the Cowboys could be a Thanksgiving team looking ahead next week. Dallas hosts Green Bay in seven days, making this a Sandwich Situation. The Cowboys are coming off a tough divisional battle against the Redskins. The Jets, meanwhile, seem revitalized with Kellen Clemens at the helm.


The Vegas. Edge: Jets.
The Cowboys are a public team. Tons of cash will be on them.

Percentage of money on Dallas: 89% (14,000 bets)


The Trends. Edge: Cowboys.

Jets are 14-25-3 ATS as an underdog the previous 42 instances (7-8 under Eric Mangini).

Tony Romo is 12-6 ATS as a starter.

Opening Line: Cowboys -14.

Opening Total: 48.

Weather: .


Fantasy Spin.

Start Em: .

Sit Em: .


Prediction:

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Indianapolis Colts (8-2) at Atlanta Falcons (3-7)
Line: Colts by 11.5. Total: 41.
Walt's Projected Line (Before Week 11): Colts -9.5.
Walt's Projected Line (After Week 11): Colts -9.5.
Happy Thanksgiving, 8:15 ET - Buy Tickets

The Game. Edge: .
Injuries: COLTS: OUT: DE Dwight Freeney, DT Anthony McFarland, OLB Rob Morris. FALCONS: OUT: QB Michael Vick.




The Psychology. Edge: Colts.
Could the Colts be the third team looking ahead on Turkey Day? Indianapolis has Jacksonville next week. However, considering the Colts are coming off a horrendous performance against the Chiefs, they could be focused, especially with a national audience tuned in. And by national audience, I mean the five people in America who actually have the NFL Network.


The Vegas. Edge: Falcons.
Peyton Manning. Tony Dungy. Indianapolis Colts. National TV. What do you expect?

Percentage of money on Indianapolis: 97% (9,000 bets)


The Trends. Edge: Colts.

Colts are 25-18 ATS on the road under Tony Dungy.

Peyton Manning is 19-14 ATS as a road favorite since 2001.

Opening Line: Colts -11.

Opening Total: 42.

Weather: .


Fantasy Spin.

Start Em: .

Sit Em: .


Prediction:

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Buffalo Bills (5-5) at Jacksonville Jaguars (7-3)
Line: Jaguars by 7.5. Total: 36.
Walt's Projected Line (Before Week 11): Jaguars -4.
Walt's Projected Line (After Week 11): Jaguars -6.
Sunday, 1:00 ET - Buy Tickets

The Game. Edge: .
Injuries: BILLS: OUT: WR Peerless Price, TE Kevin Everett, DE Ryan Denney, LB Paul Posluszny, CB Jason Webster. JAGUARS: OUT: DT Marcus Stroud, K Josh Scobee.




The Psychology. Edge: Bills.
Very obvious Sandwich Situation for the Jaguars, who are coming off two tough games (Titans and Saints) and have Indianapolis next Sunday. Jacksonville just watched the Bills get destroyed on national TV. How can they take them seriously? The Bills, meanwhile, will be looking to atone for getting completely embarrassed.


The Vegas. Edge: Bills.
I could see 50-50 action here. If the oddsmaker wanted the public to bet the Jaguars, he would have made this line six or so.

Percentage of money on Jacksonville: 94% (3,000 bets)


The Trends. Edge: Bills.

Bills are 12-1 ATS after playing the New England Patriots since 1999.

Bills are 13-5 ATS as a dog under Dick Jauron.

J.P. Losman is 7-4 ATS as a road dog.

Jaguars are 9-5 ATS in November home games since 2000.

Jaguars are 4-9 ATS as a favorite since 2006.

Opening Line: Jaguars -7.5.

Opening Total: 36.

Weather: .


Fantasy Spin.

Start Em: .

Sit Em: .


Prediction:

---

Houston Texans (5-5) at Cleveland Browns (6-4)
Line: Browns by 3.5. Total: 51.
Walt's Projected Line (Before Week 11): Browns -6.
Walt's Projected Line (After Week 11): Browns -6.
Sunday, 1:00 ET - Buy Tickets

The Game. Edge: .
Injuries: BROWNS: OUT: OT Ryan Tucker, C LeCharles Bentley, LB Willie McGinest.




The Psychology. Edge: Texans.
The Browns are on an Emotional Win Alert following their bizarre overtime victory over Baltimore. The Texans, meanwhile, seem to be gaining confidence with Matt Schaub, Andre Johnson and Owen Daniels back in action.


The Vegas. Edge: Texans.
This line seems a bit short to me. It could entice the public to pound Cleveland.

Percentage of money on Cleveland: 86% (3,000 bets)


The Trends. Edge: Texans.

Statfox Trend: Browns are a home favorite that is coming off a 1-3 point road win. (Teams 17-38 ATS in that situation since 2000).

Texans are 8-17 ATS after a win (2-1 in 2007).

Opening Line: Browns -4.

Opening Total: 52.

Weather: .


Fantasy Spin.

Start Em: .

Sit Em: .


Prediction:

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Minnesota Vikings (4-6) at New York Giants (7-3)
Line: Giants by 7. Total: 41.
Walt's Projected Line (Before Week 11): Giants -9.
Walt's Projected Line (After Week 11): Giants -9.5.
Sunday, 1:00 ET - Buy Tickets

The Game. Edge: .
Injuries: VIKINGS: OUT: RB Adrian Peterson*.




The Psychology. Edge: Vikings.
The Giants are coming off a tough victory in Detroit. I'm not sure how seriously they're going to take the Vikings. Could be a Let-Down Alert.


The Vegas. Edge: Vikings.
Another line that seems short to me. Could be tons of action on the host.

Percentage of money on New York: 90% (4,000 bets)


The Trends. Edge: None.

Crappy Quarterback: Tarvaris Jackson is 1-1 ATS on the road.

Vikings are 14-23 ATS (8-30 SU) outdoors since 2001.

Giants are 7-13 ATS as favorites of 6.5 or more the previous 20 instances.

Opening Line: Giants -7.5.

Opening Total: 41.

Weather: .


Fantasy Spin.

Start Em: .

Sit Em: .


Prediction:

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New Orleans Saints (4-6) at Carolina Panthers (4-6)
Line: Saints by 3. Total: 41.
Walt's Projected Line (Before Week 11): Saints -1.
Walt's Projected Line (After Week 11): Saints -2.
Sunday, 1:00 ET - Buy Tickets

The Game. Edge: .
Injuries: SAINTS: OUT: RB Deuce McAllister. PANTHERS: OUT: QB Jake Delhomme.




The Psychology. Edge: None.
Both of these teams pretty much need to win, don't they?


The Vegas. Edge: Panthers.
I have a small hunch that the public would rather back Drew Brees as a road favorite than Cave Man as a home dog.

Percentage of money on New Orleans: 89% (2,000 bets)


The Trends. Edge: Saints.

History: Road team has won 7 of the last 8 meetings.

Two Roads (Loss): Current and '06 head coaches are 96-67 ATS on the road following a road loss (Sean Payton 0-1).

Saints are 37-24 ATS on the road since 2000.

Drew Brees is 8-5 ATS off back-to-back losses.

Drew Brees is 7-2 ATS as a road favorite.

Panthers are 25-13 ATS as an underdog the previous 38 instances.

Opening Line: Saints -3.

Opening Total: 41.

Weather: .


Fantasy Spin.

Start Em: .

Sit Em: .


Prediction:

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Oakland Raiders (2-8) at Kansas City Chiefs (4-6)
Line: Chiefs by 5.5. Total: 34.5.
Walt's Projected Line (Before Week 11): Chiefs -6.5.
Walt's Projected Line (After Week 11): Chiefs -7.
Sunday, 1:00 ET - Buy Tickets

The Game. Edge: .
Injuries: RAIDERS: OUT: RB Michael Bush. CHIEFS: OUT: RB Larry Johnson*.




The Psychology. Edge: Raiders.
Even though the Chiefs lost at Indianapolis, they have to be proud of themselves for keeping the game close. That said, look whom they play after this "easy blowout:" San Diego, Denver and Tennessee. Can you say Breather Alert?


The Vegas. Edge: Raiders.
The Chiefs, who just battled the Colts hard, are favored by as much as the Vikings were over the Raiders last week? Something's fishy here. The public, in all likelihood, will be all over the host.

Percentage of money on Kansas City: 89% (3,000 bets)


The Trends. Edge: Raiders.

History: Chiefs have won the last 9 meetings.

Two Roads (Loss): Current and '06 head coaches are 96-67 ATS on the road following a road loss.

Raiders are 7-20 ATS vs. teams with losing records since 2001.

Opening Line: Chiefs -6.

Opening Total: 34.5.

Weather: .


Fantasy Spin.

Start Em: .

Sit Em: .


Prediction:

---

Seattle Seahawks (6-4) at St. Louis Rams (2-8)
Line: Seahawks by 3. Total: 45.
Walt's Projected Line (Before Week 11): Seahawks -3.
Walt's Projected Line (After Week 11): Seahawks -3.
Sunday, 1:00 ET - Buy Tickets

The Game. Edge: .
Injuries: SEAHAWKS: OUT: WR Deion Branch, DT Marcus Tubbs. RAMS: OUT: OT Orlando Pace, DE Leonard Little, CB Tye Hill.




The Psychology. Edge: .
The Rams' two-game winning streak may have caught Seattle's attention. These two teams hate each other. Expect an intense battle.


The Vegas. Edge: Rams.
There could be a good amount of action on the road favorite.

Percentage of money on Seattle: 99% (3,000 bets)


The Trends. Edge: Rams.

History: Seahawks have won the last 5 meetings.

Seahawks are 4-9 ATS on the road since 2006.

Matt Hasselbeck is 10-17 ATS off back-to-back wins.

Matt Hasselbeck is 7-13 ATS as a road favorite.

Marc Bulger is 5-2 ATS as a home dog.

Opening Line: Seahawks -3.

Opening Total: 44.5.

Weather: Dome.


Fantasy Spin.

Start Em: .

Sit Em: .


Prediction:

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Tennessee Titans (6-4) at Cincinnati Bengals (3-7)
Line: . Total: .
Walt's Projected Line (Before Week 11): Pick.
Walt's Projected Line (After Week 11): Pick.
Sunday, 1:00 ET - Buy Tickets

The Game. Edge: .
Injuries: TITANS: OUT: WR David Givens, CB Pacman Jones. BENGALS: OUT: RB Chris Perry, DE Frostee Rucker, LB Odell Thurman, LB David Pollack, LB Rashad Jeanty.




The Psychology. Edge: Titans.
Bad-character guys tend not to show up to meaningless games such as this one. The Bengals have a ton of those. The Titans have dropped two games in a row, so they need a win here.


The Vegas. Edge: .

Percentage of money on TEAM: X% (Y bets)


The Trends. Edge: . Double Loc TEN

Carson Palmer is 2-7 ATS as a home dog. ???

Vince Young is 13-7* as a starter (14-6* ATS).

Vince Young is 7-1* ATS as a road dog. ???

Opening Line: .

Opening Total: .

Weather: .


Fantasy Spin.

Start Em: .

Sit Em: .


Prediction:

---

Washington Redskins (5-5) at Tampa Bay Buccaneers (6-4)
Line: Buccaneers by 3. Total: 38.
Walt's Projected Line (Before Week 11): Buccaneers -3.
Walt's Projected Line (After Week 11): Buccaneers -3.
Sunday, 1:00 ET - Buy Tickets

The Game. Edge: .
Injuries: REDSKINS: OUT: OT Jon Jansen. BUCCANEERS: OUT: RB Cadillac Williams, RB Michael Pittman, OT Luke Petitgout, DE Patrick Chukwurah, CB Torrie Cox.




The Psychology. Edge: Redskins.
The Buccaneers are two up in their division. They have the Saints next week. This game doesn't mean as much to them as it does to the Redskins, who are a game out of the wildcard.


The Vegas. Edge: Buccaneers.
Seems like an equal-action situation to me.

Percentage of money on Washington: 72% (2,000 bets)


The Trends. Edge: Redskins.

Two Roads (Loss): Current and '06 head coaches are 96-67 ATS on the road following a road loss.

Redskins are 9-5 ATS after losing to the Cowboys since 1997.

Opening Line: Buccaneers -3.

Opening Total: 36.5.

Weather: .


Fantasy Spin.

Start Em: .

Sit Em: .


Prediction:

---

San Francisco 49ers (2-8) at Arizona Cardinals (5-5)
Line: Cardinals by 10.5. Total: 38.
Walt's Projected Line (Before Week 11): Cardinals -7.
Walt's Projected Line (After Week 11): Cardinals -8.5.
Sunday, 4:05 ET - Buy Tickets

The Game. Edge: .
Injuries: 49ERS: OUT: DE/OLB Manny Lawson. CARDINALS: OUT: QB Matt Leinart, OT Oliver Ross.




The Psychology. Edge: 49ers.
This may qualify as a Breather Alert for the Cardinals, who play the Browns and Seahawks after this "lock." Give the 49ers credit - they suck, but they're playing really hard.


The Vegas. Edge: 49ers.
The Cardinals are a double-digit favorite? What's sad is that people are going to be all over them because the 49ers are unbettable.

Percentage of money on Arizona: 68% (2,000 bets)


The Trends. Edge: 49ers.

History: Cardinals have won 4 of the last 5 meetings.

Divisional Dog of Seven: Current coaches are 46-36 ATS as divisional dogs of 7+ since 2002 (Mike Nolan 4-2).

Opening Line: .

Opening Total: .

Weather: Dome.


Fantasy Spin.

Start Em: .

Sit Em: .


Prediction:

---

Denver Broncos (5-5) at Chicago Bears (4-6)
Line: . Total: .
Walt's Projected Line (Before Week 11): Bears -2.5.
Walt's Projected Line (After Week 11): Broncos -3.
Sunday, 4:15 ET - Buy Tickets

The Game. Edge: .
Injuries: BRONCOS: OUT: WR Javon Walker, WR Rod Smith, C Tom Nalen. BEARS: OUT: G Ruben Brown, DT Dusty Dvoracek, CB Nathan Vasher, S Mike Brown. QUESTIONABLE: QB Brian Griese.




The Psychology. Edge: None.
The Bears are only two games out of the wildcard, so they still have something to play for. Denver, tied for first place in its division, wouldn't a victory itself.


The Vegas. Edge: .

Percentage of money on TEAM: X% (Y bets)


The Trends. Edge: .

Broncos are 5-11 ATS vs. the NFC since 2003.

Bears are 16-5 ATS in November since 2001.

Bears are 1-5 ATS as a favorite in 2007.

Rex Grossman is 3-8 ATS off back-to-back wins.

Opening Line: .

Opening Total: .

Weather: .


Fantasy Spin.

Start Em: .

Sit Em: .


Prediction:

---

Baltimore Ravens (4-6) at San Diego Chargers (5-5)
Line: Chargers by 9.5. Total: 38.5.
Walt's Projected Line (Before Week 11): Chargers -8.5.
Walt's Projected Line (After Week 11): Chargers -8.5.
Sunday, 4:15 ET - Buy Tickets

The Game. Edge: .
Injuries: RAVENS: OUT: QB Steve McNair, LB Dan Cody. JAGUARS: OUT: DT Marcus Stroud, K Josh Scobee.




The Psychology. Edge: None.
Both teams pretty much need to win.


The Vegas. Edge: None.
The Ravens have been looking like garbage, so I don't expect too much money on them. That said, some people might be afraid to bet the erratic Chargers.

Percentage of money on Baltimore: 51% (3,000 bets)


The Trends. Edge: None.

Ravens are 12-5 ATS in road games off a home loss the previous 17 instances.

Ravens are 19-11 ATS in November.

Ravens are 9-17 ATS as an underdog the previous 26 instances.

Chargers are 9-4 ATS in November home games since 2001.

Opening Line: Chargers -9.

Opening Total: 38.5.

Weather: .


Fantasy Spin.

Start Em: .

Sit Em: .


Prediction:

---

Philadelphia Eagles (5-5) at New England Patriots (10-0)
Line: Patriots by 22. Total: 50.5.
Walt's Projected Line (Before Week 11): Patriots -21.
Walt's Projected Line (After Week 11): Patriots -21.5.
Sunday, 8:15 ET - Buy Tickets

The Game. Edge: .
Injuries: PATRIOTS: OUT: WR Troy Brown.




The Psychology. Edge: Patriots.
Remember when Donovan McNabb said that he wanted his ring back in the wake of the Overhyped Videotaping Gate? Uh oh!


The Vegas. Edge: Eagles.
Vegas could make this line -30, and they'd still get some action on New England.

Percentage of money on New England: 67% (3,000 bets)


The Trends. Edge: Patriots.

Eagles are 7-15 ATS vs. AFC opponents since 2001.

Donovan McNabb is 27-17 ATS on the road since 2001.

Patriots are 20-8 ATS vs. NFC opponents since 2001.

Patriots are 37-22 ATS at home under Bill Belichick.

Tom Brady is 92-25 as a starter (75-40 ATS).

Opening Line: Patriots 22.

Opening Total: 50.5.

Weather: .


Fantasy Spin.

Start Em: .

Sit Em: .


Prediction:

---

Miami Dolphins (0-10) at Pittsburgh Steelers (7-3)
Line: Steelers by 16. Total: 41.
Walt's Projected Line (Before Week 11): Steelers -14.5.
Walt's Projected Line (After Week 11): Steelers -14.5.
Monday, 8:30 ET - Buy Tickets

The Game. Edge: .
Injuries: DOLPHINS: OUT: QB Trent Green, S Yeremiah Bell.




The Psychology. Edge: Dolphins.
The Steelers are so far ahead in their division that this game means nothing to them. The Dolphins still look desperate for a win. At least they're playing hard, which is something Pittsburgh did not do last week.


The Vegas. Edge: None.
The Steelers are a publicly backed team playing on national TV. They'll receive a good amount of action.

Percentage of money on Miami: 53% (4,000 bets)


The Trends. Edge: Dolphins.

Two Roads (Loss): Current and '06 head coaches are 96-67 ATS on the road following a road loss (Cam Cameron 0-1).

Zero Trend: 0-9 (or worse) teams are 7-1 ATS since 2000.

Zero Trend: 0-9 (or worse) teams are 4-1 ATS vs. non-losing teams since 2000.

Steelers are 9-2 ATS at home on Monday Night Football the previous 11 instances.

Ben Roethlisberger is 41-14 as a starter (34-21 ATS).

Opening Line: Steelers -16.

Opening Total: 43.

Weather: .


Fantasy Spin.

Start Em: .

Sit Em: .


Prediction:

---

Prop/Teaser/Parlay Picks
A list of some of my favorite team/player prop picks this week
(Offense & defensive ROY picks to be counted whenver winners are announced.) Picks carried over on a week-to-week basis will be in black.

Offensive Rookie of the Year: Marshawn Lynch +500 - Lynch will be the opening-day starter for the Bills and will have the luxury of running behind a huge offensive line. Running backs make the quickest transition into the NFL, and Lynch is the only rookie who's guaranteed a starting gig. (1 Unit)

Offensive Rookie of the Year: Field +700 - James Jones? Jacoby Jones? Who knows, Marques Colston came out of nowhere last year. (1 Unit)

Defensive Rookie of the Year: Jamaal Anderson +1400 - Unlike Gaines Adams, Jamaal Anderson will be starting on Day 1. With teams concerned about John Abraham, Anderson seems like he could be poised for a double digit-sack campaign. (1 Unit)

Odds to Win Super Bowl: Patriots 5/2 - Not great odds, but they'll get the job done. (1 Unit)

Odds to Win Super Bowl: Steelers 22/1 - Getting a great deal here. (.5 Units)

Regular Season Wins: Chiefs Under 7.5 -155 - Larry Johnson will get hurt, the defense will suck and Herm Edwards will lose his mind. (1.5 Units)

Regular Season Wins: Dolphins Under 7 -125 - I've talked about the Dolphins plenty of times already. (1.5 Units)

Regular Season Wins: Steelers Over 9 -105 - The Steelers went 8-8 with a damaged Ben Roethlisberger. No way they win less than 10 this season. (1.5 Units)

Regular Season Wins: Giants Under 8 -165 - No way they get to 8-8 this year. (1.5 Units)

Player Prop: Larry Johnson Under 1,700 Total Rushing Yards - Since Eric Dickerson, no running back who has carried the ball 385 or more times has finished in the top 10 in rushing. Johnson had 416 carries, the most in the history of the NFL. (2 Units)

Player Prop: Wes Welker Over 675 Total Receiving Yards - Wes Welker has been Tom Brady's new go-to-guy in training camp and preseason. I'm expecting a big year from him. (2 Units)

More prop picks will be listed here.

---

Second-Half Bets
Check back at halftime to see if I have any plays posted.

Second-half picks will be listed here.



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