2001 Season Preview
2002 Season Preview
2003 Season Preview:
AFC East / AFC North / AFC South / AFC West
NFC East / NFC North / NFC South / NFC West
Playoffs / Awards
2004 Season Preview:
AFC East / AFC North / AFC South / AFC West
NFC East / NFC North / NFC South / NFC West
Playoffs / Awards / Simulation
2005 Season Preview:
AFC East / AFC North / AFC South / AFC West
NFC East / NFC North / NFC South / NFC West
Playoffs / Awards / Simulation
2006 Season Preview:
AFC East / AFC North / AFC South / AFC West
NFC East / NFC North / NFC South / NFC West
Playoffs / Awards / Simulation
2007 Season Preview:
Buffalo / Miami / New England / New York Jets
Baltimore / Cincinnati / Cleveland / Pittsburgh
Houston / Indianapolis / Jacksonville / Tennessee
Denver / Kansas City / Oakland / San Diego
Dallas / New York Giants / Philadelphia / Washington
Chicago / Detroit / Green Bay / Minnesota
Atlanta / Carolina / New Orleans / Tampa Bay
Arizona / San Francisco / Seattle / St. Louis
Playoffs / Awards / Simulation
Tennessee Titans (Last Year: 11-5).
8/26 Update:
Tennessee has looked very impressive in preseason. Their defensive line is playing better than expected.
Major Additions:
RB Chris Brown, WR Tyrone Calico, DT Rien Long, CB Andre Woolfolk.
Major Subtractions:
FB Mike Green, WR Kevin Dyson, C Gennaro DeNapoli, DT John Thornton, DT Henry Ford, LB Randall Godfrey, CB Dainon Sidney, CB Donald Mitchell, S Rich Coady.
Offense This Year: Considering WR Kevin Dyson's injury last year, this offense remains the same, personnel-wise. However, the biggest concern has to be distractions. Team leader QB Steve McNair was arrested for DUI and possession of a handgun. Earlier, top WR Derrick Mason broke his hand playing golf. If the Titans can get past the distractions, then their offense will be pretty effective. Steve McNair does everything for the Titans, and defenses have to be honest because of RB Eddie George. George should eclipse 10,000 rushing yards this year, but might struggle doing so, because of Tennessee's poor interior offensive line. George had the same guys blocking for him last year, and struggled, despite gaining 1,165 yards. This offense will not be prolific, but they will be capable of putting up 30 points on occasion.
Defense This Year: Once again, the Titans have to deal with distractions. LB Randall Godfrey, a real locker room leader, was released. The Titans also lost DT John Thornton, so look for Tennesee's run defense to struggle. Godfrey and Thornton were replaced by Robaire Smith and Frank Chamberlin, who were sixth and fifth round picks in 2000, respectively. To make up for their run defense, the Titans will put a lot of pressure on the quarterback. They have Jevon Kearse and Carlos Hall at defensive end, and monster OLB Keith Bulluck, who should have been a Pro Bowler last year. Once rookie CB Andre Woolfolk is ready to start, the Titans will have four solid starters in their secondary (CB Samari Rolle, FS Lance Schulters and SS Tank Williams). The Titans' defense will not be ranked 10th like they were in 2002, but they should be no lower than 20th.
Schedule and Intangibles: Steve McNair is the biggest intangible for the Titans. In 2002, he had the "Blood, Guts and Glory" run where he led the Titans to the AFC Championship, despite suffering multiple injuries. Can he do that again, or will the DUI and firearms charges distract him? I think the Titans may get off to a slow start, but end the season on a high note, like last year. Numbers back that statement up. Since 1992, the Titans are 17-23 in Septembers. During every other month, they are over .500, including a 25-16 October, and a 32-16 December. The Titans are one of four teams that have a winning record on the road since 1992. They are 47-41. That doesn't mean that they are bad at home, however. They have an impressive 52-36 record at Adelphia Coliseum.
Analysis: The Titans must get past these distractions to win the AFC South. Distractions play an important role in a team's success. Just ask the Raiders. If Tennessee avoids distractions, they have to be the favorites to win the division because of Jacksonville's late season meltdowns and injuries, and Peyton Manning's inability to win big games.
Projection: 10-6 (1st in the AFC South).
Indianapolis Colts (Last Year: 10-6).
8/26 Update:
Edgerrin James looks 100%. He'll help Peyton Manning a lot this year. However, whether he'll help Peyton win a big game is unlikely.
Major Additions:
WR Brandon Stokley, TE Dallas Clark, G Steve Sciullo, DT Montae Reagor, CB Donald Strickland, S Mike Doss, S Rich Coady.
Major Subtractions:
FB Jim Finn, WR Qadry Ismail, OT Waverly Jackson, LB Mike Peterson.
Offense This Year: On paper, Peyton Manning is one of the best quarterbacks in the NFL (check Schedule and Intangibles to see what I mean by that statement). He has perhaps the best wide receiver in the NFL to throw to, Marvin Harrison. Harrison set the NFL record for receptions last season, with little help from any other receiver. Reggie Wayne, who is entering into his third season, must become the supplement that the Colts are looking for. If not, it'll have to be Brandon Stokley, the former Raven receiver, who never had anyone like Harrison on the other side. Indianapolis drafted TE Dallas Clark to use in two tight end formations. Clark was the consensus top tight end in the draft, and Peyton Manning should start using him right away. The wildcard of course, is RB Edgerrin James. James, who came off knee surgery, had a horrible 2002 campaign. It would help Manning a lot if he had a healthy James, or even a healthy RB Dominic Rhodes. A running game would help out a struggling offensive line. Both guards (Rick DeMulling and Ryan Diem) and OT Adam Meadows struggled mightily in 2002. Without a strong running game, lots of defenses will put tons of pressure on Peyton Manning, which is something that the statue-esque Peyton can't handle.
Defense This Year: Head Coach Tony Dungy is attempting to duplicate what he had in Tampa Bay, which was a cover 2 defense that dominates games. The cap-straped Colts could not signed many defensive players this offseason. They overpaid for DT Montae Reagor, who won't even start. Other signings did not make sense either. The only acquisition that will start is S Mike Doss, who's play resembles S John Lynch. Up front, the Colts get a lot of pressure on the quarterback with DE Dwight Freeny, who had 13 sacks last year. The Colts also got 7 from Brad Scioli and 6 from Chad Bratzke. Second year pro DT Larry Tripplett is expected to step up his play. With all of this pressure, the Colts were pretty good at stopping the pass, however, they were not effective as they should have been because they could not stop the run, nor could their corners cover efficiently. Both corners (Walt Harris and David Macklin) are #2 corners in this league. Indianapolis has to endure the loss of LB Mike Peterson, who was the their top linebacker. They have yet to replace him. The Colts should have an average defense for the second consecutive year.
Schedule and Intangibles: Peyton Manning simply can not win big games. Period. He always lost to major rivals in college, has never won a playoff game (0-3) and could not beat new division rival Tennessee last year. The only way he'll beat Tennessee is if they somehow are not at the top of the AFC South. The Colts do not have a good home record since 1992. They are only 48-40. They are not effective in their dome as Minnesota or Detroit (yes, Detroit) are. Indy feasted on an easy record last year. Things will not be the same in 2003. Some of the teams they play are Tampa Bay, New Orleans, Atlanta, New England, New York Jets, Buffalo, Miami and Denver. They also play the Titans twice (whom they probably won't beat at all) and Jacksonville twice (they are much better this year).
Analysis: With so many tough games, it'll be tough for Indianapolis to get back into the playoffs. Even if they do get to the playoffs, they will not win there.
Projection: 8-8 (2nd in the AFC South).
Jacksonville Jaguars (Last Year: 6-10).
8/26 Update:
I'm hearing rumors that the Jaguars are trying to trade Mark Brunell. The problem is, he is making a lot of money this year. The Jaguars might even release him soon. I'll keep the Jaguars at 7-9, but if they release him, their season will go down the drain.
Major Additions:
QB Byron Leftwich, RB LaBrandon Toefield, FB Marc Edwards, WR J.J. Stokes, WR Donald Hayes, WR/KR Jermaine Lewis, TE George Wrighster, G Vince Manuwai, DE Hugh Douglas, LB Mike Peterson, CB James Trapp, CB/S Rashean Mathis.
Major Subtractions:
RB Stacey Mack, WR Patrick Johnson, WR/KR Bobby Shaw, OT Todd Fordham, G Zach Weigert, S James Boyd.
Offense This Year: 2003 will be the last hurrah for QB Mark Brunell. Its a rather depressing story for Mark, who is being weeded out by the team that he wants to end his career with. This will be his last year as the starter for Jacksonville. The starter next year will be either Byron Leftwich or David Garrard. This year, Brunell has a lot more to work with. RB Fred Taylor is coming off his first healthy season since 1998. Fred wants to have a 2,000 yard season and is training vigorously to do so. To help him, the Jags signed FB Marc Edwards, an effective lead blocker. The third member of Jacksonville's three headed monster is WR Jimmy Smith, who had 20 less receptions in 2002 than he did in 2001. Smith really missed having WR Keenan McCardell as a second receiver because McCardell took double teams away from Smith. The Jaguars signed WRs J.J. Stokes and Donald Hayes, but they will not play to the level that McCardell did. Jacksonville drafted TE George Wrighster, who might start at some point during this season. Wrighster is a definite upgrade over TE Kyle Brady. Finally, the Jags drafted G Vince Manuwai, who should start right away. This slightly improves a subpar offensive line. The Jaguars will be better offensively in 2003 if Brunell, Taylor and Smith all manage to stay healthy.
Defense This Year: Jacksonville added four players that will improve their defense. The Jaguars did not have a single player over 6½ sacks last year, so they signed DE Hugh Douglas. Douglas provides double digit sack totals, and should help DE Marco Coleman, and DTs John Henderson and Marcus Stroud get to the quarterback. LB Mike Peterson, who had over 130 tackles last year and played greatly for division rival Indianapolis, was signed to help stop the run. Draft pick Rashean Mathis will start at either cornerback or safety. Free agent CB James Trapp will most likely be the third corner. With a much improved pass rush and two new players, the Jaguars' secondary won't get burnt as much as they did in 2002. With all of that being said, the Jacksonville defense still has some holes. Both outside linebackers, Akin Ayodele and Eric Westmoreland played poorly last year. Both CB Jason Craft and S Marlon McCree were torched by offenses in 2002, and one of them has to start this year. The Jaguars' defense was ranked 20th last year; look for them to be closer to tenth by season's end.
Schedule and Intangibles: The Jaguars are another southern team that starts off hot, but cools off like the weather. They are 17-13 in Septembers since 1992. However, despite their recent late season meltdowns, they are a winning team during the months of November and December in the last decade. Jacksonville's hot and humid climate contribute to their outstanding home record over the last ten years (40-24). Like all of the other teams in the AFC South, the Jags have to deal with Tampa Bay, Atlanta, New Orleans, New England, New York Jets, Buffalo and Miami. When healthy, Jacksonville will look like an elite team, so they should be successful with that schedule.
Analysis: The bottom line is, if any one of the Jaguars' three headed monster (Brunell, Taylor, Smith) gets injured, they have no chance. If all of them do stay healthy in 2003, the Jaguars could find themselves in the playoffs, or even winners of the AFC South. However, history has shown that they can't all stay healthy in one season.
Projection: 7-9 (3rd in the AFC South).
Houston Texans (Last Year: 4-12).
Major Additions:
QB David Ragone, QB Drew Henson, RB Stacey Mack, WR Andre Johnson, TR Bennie Joppru, OT Greg Robinson-Randall, OT Seth Wand, G Zach Wiegert, DE/OLB Antwan Peek, LB Patrick Chukwurah, LB Charlie Clemons.
Major Subtractions:
WR/KR Jermaine Lewis, OT Ryan Young, G DeMingo Graham, LB Jeff Posey, FS Kevin Williams.
Offense This Year: This was the worst offense in the NFL in 2002. They had no running game, and a poor offensive line that allowed their quarterback, David Carr to be sacked 76 times, which is an NFL record. Carr's receivers' inability to get open also contributed to that number. Houston attempted to fix all of their problems. They drafted WR Andre Johnson, who will be a good receiver, however, no first year wide out has made a huge impact since Randy Moss in 1998. That leaves bust WR Jabar Gaffney and Corey Bradford, who is a third receiver in this league, at best, to try and get open for Carr. It didn't happen last year, and it won't happen this year. One player that Carr can use to move the ball consistently is TE Billy Miller, who caught 51 passes last year for 613 yards. TE Bennie Joppru may also contribute, but he is a mere rookie. Don't look for the running game to improve much either. RB Stacey Mack is a good short yardage back, but he is not an every down back. His offensive line will have trouble opening up running lanes. The Texans are banking on OT Tony Boselli to bounce back from his multiple injuries. That won't happen. That leaves OT Jimmy Herndon and G Chester Pitts to occupy the left side of the offensive line. That is more bad news for Carr. The right side is a little better, although it will not provide consistent protection either. G Zach Wiegert and OT Greg Robinson-Randall both played poorly last year for different teams. At least David Carr has a good center in Steve McKinney. I think David Carr will be lucky if his sack total is under 60 this year.
Defense This Year: Houston's defense kept them in a lot of games last year, and was barely altered this offseason. The only significant change was replacing LB Jeff Posey with LB Charlie Clemons, which is a downgrade, considering that Posey led the Texans in sacks with 8. With that being said, the Texans did have a few problems on defense last year. Starting DE Jerry DeLoach only had 1 sack last year. His backup, DE Corey Sears also had 1 sack. With only 5½ coming from LE Gary Walker, the Texans desperately need a pass rusher. CBs Aaron Glenn and Marcus Coleman were excellent last year, but they had little safety help with Matt Stevens and Eric Brown. The Texans failed to add a stud safety this offseason. They could have easily drafted one, but opted to go with a tight end and two quarterbacks instead, something they did not need whatsoever.
Schedule and Intangibles: KR Jermaine Lewis left for Jacksonville. Kicking and punting is also a concern with K Kris Brown and P Chad Stanley. The Texans have only been around one year, so compiling monthly and home statistics would be useless. Last year, Houston played non-playoff teams like Dallas, Washington, Baltimore and Cincinnati. This year, things will be much tougher. Outside of their division, they have to deal with Tampa Bay, Atlanta, New Orleans, New England, New York Jets, Miami, Buffalo and Kansas City. Wins will be hard to come by yet again.
Analysis: Head coach Dom Capers led Carolina to an NFC Championship game in his second year. If Houston somehow gets to the AFC Championship this year, it'll be a miracle. Texan fans can expect the same number of wins this year. Any more than three additional wins is very improbable.
Projection: 5-11 (4th in the AFC South).
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