AFC West
Kansas City Chiefs (Last Year: 7-9).
Major Additions:
WR Freddie Mitchell, WR Craphonso Thorpe, DE Carlos Hall, OLB Derrick Johnson, MLB Kendrell Bell, CB Patrick Surtain, CB Ashley Ambrose, S Sammy Knight.
Major Subtractions:
RB Derrick Blaylock, WR Johnnie Morton, DE Vonnie Holliday, MLB Monty Beisel.
Offense This Year: There are things to like and dislike about Kansas City's offense. The Chiefs scored more than 30 points on eight occasions in 2004. Trent Green is one of the top quarterbacks in the NFL, Priest Holmes is arguably the best running back in the league, while Tony Gonzalez is impossible to defend. With the exception of the right tackle position, the Chiefs have a mammoth offensive line. The problems with Kansas City's offense stem at wide receiver. Eddie Kennison and Johnnie Morton combined for numerous dropped balls the previous two seasons. Morton was released on June 2, leaving the starting wide out position to Kennison and special teams star Dante' Hall. It remains to be seen whether Hall can be a legitimate starting receiver in the NFL -- he only caught 25 balls for 230 yards in 2004. There is also a Missouri-sized void at right tackle. Jordan Black is penciled in as the starter at that position, which is far from good news.
Defense This Year: In 2003, Kansas City's defense was responsible for their loss to the Indianapolis Colts in the playoffs. In 2004, their defense was responsible for their absence in the playoffs. Dick Vermeil and general manager Carl Peterson finally came to their senses and added talent through free agency and the draft. Perhaps their most prominent acquisition was trading their second-round pick to Miami for Patrick Surtain. With Surtain, the Chiefs finally have a shutdown cornerback. Joining Surtain in an improved secondary is safety Sammy Knight, another former Dolphin. It's safe to say that Kansas City will not surrender more than 4,200 passing yards in 2005. Surtain, Knight, free safety Jerome Woods and corner Dexter McCleon will be pleased to know that the Chiefs will be able to effectively rush opposing passers. Defensive end Jared Allen had nine sacks last season, while Carlos Hall, who was acquired in a trade from Tennessee, will man the other defensive end position. The linebacking corps is also improved. Kendrell Bell was a key free agent signee, while Derrick Johnson was selected in the first round of April's draft. The two new linebackers will join Shawn Barber and Mike Maslowski. The one problem the Chiefs will have in 2005 will be stopping the run. Kansas City has nothing at defensive tackle.
Schedule and Intangibles: Dante' Hall is the best punt and kick returner in the NFL. However, the special teams are still a liability because kicker Lawrence Tynes connected on just five of 10 field goal attempts from beyond 40 yards... Kansas City has the largest disparity of weather in the NFL. In September, it is scorching hot and dry, while in December, it is very cold and wet. These factors add up to an outstanding 77-27 home record since 1992. It is also why they are at their best in September and December (30-18 and 32-21 since 1992, respectively)... Unlike AFC West rivals San Diego and Denver, the Chiefs have a number of soft spots on their schedule. Easy non-divisional opponents include: Washington, Miami, Buffalo and Houston. Kansas City still has to tussle with New England, Philadelphia, Cincinnati and the New York Jets, however.
Analysis: The off-season acquisitions the Chiefs have made almost ensures them a playoff spot in 2005. It'll be interesting to see what Trent Green, Priest Holmes and Tony Gonzalez can do in the postseason, now that they have a defense to back them up.
Projection: 11-5 (1st in the AFC West).
San Diego Chargers (Last Year: 12-4).
Major Additions:
WR Vincent Jackson, OT Wesley Britt, G Wes Sims, NT Luis Castillo, OLB Shawne Merriman, S Bhawoh Jue.
Major Subtractions:
QB Doug Flutie, RB Jesse Chatman, FB Leon Johnson, WR Tim Dwight, WR Bobby Shaw, TE Josh Norman, DT Jason Fisk, DT Eric Downing, LB Zeke Moreno.
Offense This Year: The off-season acquisitions the Chargers made on offense were late-round draft picks, so don't expect much to change. Look for the same unit that shredded Tennessee, Jacksonville, Oakland, New Orleans, Kansas City, Tampa Bay and Indianapolis for more than 30 points. Drew Brees was the difference last year, as he metamorphasized from bust to brilliance, throwing for 3,159 yards, 27 touchdowns and just seven interceptions. Brees was able to compile a quarterback rating of 104.8 by learning how to read NFL defenses, and how to look off receivers. Of course, it helps that Brees had LaDainian Tomlinson -- the best running back in football -- and Antonio Gates to assist him. Gates, who had 81 receptions for 964 yards and 13 touchdowns, is joined by a talented group of wide receivers: Keenan McCardell, Reche Caldwell, Eric Parker and rookie Vincent Jackson. Any doubts about San Diego's offense could be about the offensive tackles, Roman Oben and Shane Olivea. Other than fifth-round pick Wesley Britt, the Chargers failed to upgrade the offensive tackle position.
Defense This Year: In 2003, San Diego was 19th against the run and dead last against the pass. In 2004, they still struggled to defend opposing aerial attacks, but their run defense surrendered just 3.7 yards per carry. Teams couldn't run against the Chargers because of nose tackle Jamal Williams, who ate up opposing linemen, allowing San Diego's talented linebackers to make plays. Inside linebackers Donnie Edwards and Randall Godfrey excelled at stopping runners, while outside linebacker Steve Foley was able to accumulate 10 sacks. The Chargers needed an upgrade over Ben Leber, so they drafted Shawne Merriman. Whether the troublesome Merriman can step in and contribute this season remains to be seen. San Diego's secondary was burnt often last year for two reasons. The first being their quartette of cornerbacks -- Quentin Jammer, Drayton Florence, Jamar Fletcher and Sammy Davis -- were all under the age of 25. The second being the lack of pressure on the opposing quarterback. The four corners are all a year older, but the second problem has yet to be solved.
Schedule and Intangibles: Kicker Nate Kaeding is known for his missed field goal in the playoffs against the New York Jets. However, Kaeding was only a rookie. He connected on 20 of his 25 attempts during the regular season... The Chargers have an excellent punt returner in Eric Parker, but who will take the place of kick returner Tim Dwight?... San Diego has a very taxing schedule this season, which includes non-divisional contests against New England, Pittsburgh, Philadelphia, New York Jets and Indianapolis.
Analysis: The Chargers seem to be everyone's favorite to fall down to Earth after an upstart season. They will not have another 12-win season, but they should be able to make the playoffs again.
Projection: 10-6 (2nd in the AFC West).
Denver Broncos (Last Year: 10-6).
Major Additions:
RB Maurice Clarett, TE Stephen Alexander, G Cameron Spikes, DE Courtney Brown, DE Ebenezer Ekuban, DT Gerard Warren, DT Mike Myers, LB Ian Gold, CB Darrent Williams, CB Brandon Browner, P Todd Sauberbrun.
Major Subtractions:
RB Reuben Droughns, RB Garrison Hearst, G Dan Neil, DE Reggie Hayward, DT Luther Elliss, LB Donnie Spragan, CB Kelly Herndon, S Kennoy Kennedy, P Jason Baker.
Offense This Year: Another year, another 1,000-yard rusher? Mike Shanahan has been the master of producing dynamic running backs out of thin air, thanks to his incredible offensive line. The line lost guard Dan Neil this off-season, but Carlisle Cooper is a worthy substitute. The problem with Denver's offense is that it is heavily predicated on the run. If the Broncos are playing a team that cannot stop the run, they pound their running back -- it will be Tatum Bell this season -- and once the opposing defense puts eight men into the box, Jake Plummer can use his patented play-action bootlegs, connecting with Rod Smith, Ashley Lelie, Darius Watts or Jeb Putzier downfield. If the Broncos are playing a team that can stop the run, Plummer goes into self-destruct mode, throwing left-handed strikes to the other team. Keep in mind that Plummer's favorite target, Smith, is now 35. Lelie, who caught 54 passes for 1,084 yards last season will have to step up and take over for the aging Smith. Denver also needs more from Watts, who had 385 yards and one touchdown in 2004.
Defense This Year: In my 2004 season preview of the Broncos' defense, I wrote, "Peyton Manning and the Colts are still scoring." My, how things haven't changed. In an effort to find some way to finally contain Indianapolis' offense, Shanahan acquired Cleveland's defensive line this off-season. That's Gerard Warren, Courtney Brown, Mike Myers and Ebenezer Ekuban. The defensive line on a 4-12 team that could not stop the run. Shanahan must have lost his mind. Or read Cleveland's statistics incorrectly. Either way, all four Browns linemen will be non-factors this season. To make matters worse, the Broncos lost their top sack artist, Reggie Hayward to the Jacksonville Jaguars. Trevor Pryce, who had eight sacks in 2003, will be back from injury. However, Denver has no sort of pass rush beyond Pryce. Opposing quarterbacks will have all the time in the world to throw, putting immense pressure on a very mediocre secondary. While stopping the pass will be an issue, containing the run should not be a problem for the Broncos. Middle linebacker Al Wilson is one of the best at his position. Wilson is joined by D.J. Williams, Ian Gold, Jashon Sykes and Terry Pierce in a very deep and quick linebacking corps that excels at stopping opposing rushers.
Schedule and Intangibles: Freezing temperatures and thin air create a hostile environment for opponents, which explains why Denver has an AFC-best 66-22 home record since 1994... The Broncos have a very balanced schedule. They will beat up on soft non-divisional opponents like Miami, Washington and Buffalo. However, they must also battle New England, Baltimore, Philadelphia and Jacksonville.
Additional Reading: Mike Shanahan has been collecting garbage this off-season.
Analysis: Denver's offense is a year older, they inherited Cleveland's defensive line and Jake Plummer is still the quarterback. Kansas City and Oakland have both improved, which could place the Broncos at the bottom of the AFC West. I'll be shocked if they qualify for the playoffs for the third consecutive season.
Projection: 5-11 (3rd in the AFC West).
Oakland Raiders (Last Year: 5-11).
Major Additions:
QB Andrew Walter, RB Lamont Jordan, WR Randy Moss, OT Pete McMahon, C Vince Carter, DE Derrick Burgess, DT Ed Jasper, DT Anntaj Hawthorne, OLB Jay Foreman, MLB Kirk Morrison, CB Fabian Washington, CB Stanford Routt, CB Renaldo Hill.
Major Subtractions:
RB Amos Zereoue, TE Doug Jolley, G Frank Middleton, DT John Parrella, OLB Napoleon Harris, CB Phillip Buchanaon, S Ray Buchanan, S David Terrell.
Offense This Year: Oakland's offense will begin and end with Randy Moss. Which Moss will show up? The one who makes spectacular catches and will want to make Minnesota regret trading him, or the one who has alligator arms and walks off the field early? The Raiders are taking a big risk, and in this case, it's probably a losing proposition. Nevertheless, the Raiders' offense will be exciting. Joining Moss in the receiving corps are Jerry Porter, Ronald Curry, Doug Gabriel and Carlos Francis, all of whom are very quick. Kerry Collins, who still possesses a rocket arm, will be throwing the ball downfield a lot this season. However, Collins was responsible for 20 interceptions and three fumbles in 2004. He needs to take care of the football for Oakland to succeed. Fortunately for Collins, he will be protected by a decent offensive line, led by second-year stars Robert Gallery and Jake Grove. LaMont Jordan, acquired via free agency, will be the starter at running back. While Jordan displayed flashes of brilliance with the Jets, he has never been a starter, so it remains to be seen whether he can carry the load and take pressure off of the Raiders' passing attack.
Defense This Year: The Raiders surrendered more than 30 points on nine occasions in 2004, and to make matters worse, they lost Napoleon Harris and Phillip Buchanon this off-season. Stopping the run shouldn't be a problem, as defensive tackles Ted Washington and Warren Sapp, and middle linebacker Danny Clark restricted opposing rushers to 3.8 yards per carry last season. Stopping the pass will be a different story. Buchanon is now a Houston Texan, meaning Asomugha Nnamdi starts opposite of the frequently injured Charles Woodson. Oakland drafted speedy corners Fabian Washington and Stanford Routt with their first two draft picks, but neither is ready to start. Getting to the quarterback will also be an issue. The Raiders' top sacker in 2004 was Tommy Kelly, who had four. Oakland's big off-season acquisition was defensive end Derrick Burgess, who had 2½ sacks with the Philadelphia Eagles last year. It's safe to say that the Raiders will have trouble beating Kansas City and San Diego this season, because they have no chance of containing their aerial attacks.
Schedule and Intangibles: The Black Hole seems like an intimidating place to play, but the Raiders are surprisingly only 58-46 at home since 1992... Oakland finished in last place last season, meaning they have a last-place schedule. Easy non-divisional opponents include: Buffalo, Washington, Miami, Tennessee and Cleveland.
Additional Reading: Randy Moss is simply the latest misfit that Al Davis has acquired.
Analysis: Oakland will be better with the additions of Randy Moss and LaMont Jordan, but will they pull a Minnesota and go into implode mode late in the season? I wouldn't be surprised.
Projection: 4-12 (4th in the AFC West).
2001 Season Preview
2002 Season Preview
2003 Season Preview:
AFC East / AFC North / AFC South / AFC West
NFC East / NFC North / NFC South / NFC West
Playoffs / Awards
2004 Season Preview:
AFC East / AFC North / AFC South / AFC West
NFC East / NFC North / NFC South / NFC West
Playoffs / Awards / Simulation
2005 Season Preview:
AFC East / AFC North / AFC South / AFC West
NFC East / NFC North / NFC South / NFC West
Playoffs / Awards / Simulation
2006 Season Preview:
AFC East / AFC North / AFC South / AFC West
NFC East / NFC North / NFC South / NFC West
Playoffs / Awards / Simulation
2007 Season Preview:
Buffalo / Miami / New England / New York Jets
Baltimore / Cincinnati / Cleveland / Pittsburgh
Houston / Indianapolis / Jacksonville / Tennessee
Denver / Kansas City / Oakland / San Diego
Dallas / New York Giants / Philadelphia / Washington
Chicago / Detroit / Green Bay / Minnesota
Atlanta / Carolina / New Orleans / Tampa Bay
Arizona / San Francisco / Seattle / St. Louis
Playoffs / Awards / Simulation
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