AFC West
Updated Aug. 13
Denver Broncos (Last Year: 13-3).
Major Additions:
QB Jay Cutler, WR Javon Walker, TE Tony Schleffler, C Greg Eslinger, DE Kenard Lang, DE Elvis Dumervil, MLB Nate Webster.
Major Subtractions:
RB Mike Anderson, TE Jeb Putzier, DE Trevor Pryce, DE Monsanto Pope.
Offense This Year: As I wrote last year, "Another year, another 1,000-yard rusher? Mike Shanahan has been the master of producing dynamic running backs out of thin air, thanks to his incredible offensive line." The front five did not disappoint, as Mike Anderson became the latest player to eclipse that plateau.
Anderson defected to Baltimore, but there is nothing to worry about; the entire offensive front is back, and they will be blocking for third-year back Tatum Bell, who rushed for 921 yards and eight touchdowns on only 173 attempts. That's 5.3 yards per carry -- no wonder Shanahan let Anderson walk. If Bell receives 300 carries this year -- Shanahan has had a habit of utilizing multiple running backs the past few years -- he should easily reach 1,500 rushing yards.
Bell's effective running ability will allow Jake Plummer to use his patented play-action bootlegs. However, if the Broncos are playing a team that can stop the run -- see what happened against the Steelers in the AFC Championship Game as a reference -- Plummer goes into self-destruct mode, throwing left-handed wobblers to the other team.
Denver was able to acquire Javon Walker and rookie tight end Tony Schleffler, both of whom will be welcome additions to Denver's offense. But the fact remains that Plummer will implode at some point during the playoffs. At least Broncos fans have Jay Cutler to look forward to. I expect the Vanderbilt alumnus to be starting by September 2007.
Defense This Year: Shanahan was criticized for bringing in rejects from Cleveland's defensive line last offseason. I was one of those detractors and I predicted the Broncos to go 5-11 because their front four would struggle to stop the run and put pressure on quarterbacks. I was wrong about the former; defensive tackles Michael Myers and Gerard Warren anchored a stop unit that was ranked seventh against opposing ground attacks. It helped that the two former Browns had an outstanding linebacking corps behind them; D.J. Williams, Al Wilson and Ian Gold are all Pro Bowl-caliber players.
That said, I was right about Denver's inability to pressure signal callers. Starting defensive ends Courtney Brown and Trevor Pryce were responsible for just six sacks in 2005. The latter, who was coming off a major injury, was signed by the Ravens, leaving the job open to John Engelberger, Ebenezer Ekuban and Kenard Lang. Only Ekuban had more than two sacks last season.
Denver's lackluster pass rush put tremendous stress on a talented cornerbacking corps, comprised of Champ Bailey, Darrent Williams and Domonique Foxworth. Consequently, the Broncos surrendered 3,643 passing yards in 2005, and could not stop the Steelers' aerial attack in the AFC Championship Game. Something else that hurts Denver's cause is the fact that safeties John Lynch and Nick Ferguson respectively turn 35 and 33 at some point during the season.
Schedule and Intangibles: Freezing temperatures and thin air create a hostile environment for opponents, which explains why Denver has an NFL-best 70-18 home record since 1995 ... Although the Broncos won the AFC West, they have a very balanced schedule. They will beat up on soft, non-divisional foes like St. Louis, Baltimore, Arizona and San Francisco. However, Denver must also battle revenge-hungry New England, Indianapolis, Pittsburgh, Seattle and Cincinnati.
Analysis: Can Jake Plummer finally become a reliable playoff quarterback? I seriously doubt it. I also question Denver's ability to rush opposing signal callers. That said, the Broncos are still the supreme entity in a declining AFC West.
Projection: 11-5 (1st in the AFC West).
Kansas City Chiefs (Last Year: 10-6).
Major Additions:
QB Brodie Croyle, DE Tamba Hali, DT Ron Edwards, CB Lenny Walls, CB Marcus Maxey, S Bernard Pollard.
Major Subtractions:
FB Tony Richardson, WR Marc Boerigter, OLB Shawn Barber, OLB Gary Stills, CB Eric Warfield, CB Dexter McCleon, CB Dewayne Washington, S Jerome Woods.
Offense This Year: With players such as Trent Green, Larry Johnson, Priest Holmes and Tony Gonzalez, it's hard to believe that the Chiefs struggled offensively at times last season. But that was the case, as Al Saunders' offense scored 30 or more points on just five occasions in 2005, a decline of three from the year before. Kansas City scored only three points at Buffalo; 10 at Denver; and 17 at New York, all of which were losses that were instrumental in keeping the team out of the postseason.
While Larry Johnson seems poised for a record-breaking campaign -- he rushed for 1,750 yards and 20 touchdowns despite starting only nine games -- the Chiefs' attack unit looks like it will have to embrace another slight drop in performance. Left tackle William Roaf, who was once considered the best player at his position, turned 36 in April and was pondering retirement in the offseason. Roaf is now a declining player, which is a big deal for Kansas City because right tackle John Welbourn announced his retirement on June 15, leaving a void at that position.
Green, who will be celebrating his 36th birthday in July, has a couple of quality seasons remaining, but does not have the receivers to retain his Pro Bowl status; Eddie Kennison should not be a No. 1; starter Samie Parker caught just 36 passes for 533 yards last year; and Dante Hall is strictly a return specialist. Gonzalez is still one of the premier tight ends in the league, but like his teammates, he is aging (he turned 30 in February).
Defense This Year: In 2003, Kansas City's defense surrendered 38 points in an ugly playoff loss to the Indianapolis Colts. In 2004, that same defense was ranked 31st in the NFL and was responsible for keeping the team out of the postseason. Last year, a slightly improved stop unit still had trouble tackling in key, late-season losses to the Giants and Cowboys. Have the Chiefs added enough defensive help to finally put them over the hump? Not a chance.
One player that will make a positive contribution is first-round selection Tamba Hali, a relentless pass rusher who will join Jared Allen (11 sacks in 2005) at defensive end. Besides Hali, Kansas City has a few other quality pieces in place: Second-year Derrick Johnson should develop into a star at outside linebacker; and cornerback Patrick Surtain helped improve a lackluster aerial defense that permitted more than 4,200 passing yards in 2004.
However, that's where all of the positives come to an end. The Chiefs have nothing at defensive tackle; Ryan Sims is always hurt, while Lionel Dalton is nothing more than a solid backup. Kansas City also lacks talent beyond Surtain in the secondary -- No. 2 cornerback Lenny Walls was nonchalantly discarded by the Broncos; backup corners Benny Sapp and Julian Battle are brutal; strong safety Sammy Knight is a fierce hitter but is too slow to start; free safety Greg Wesley is mediocre at best; and rookie safety Bernard Pollard has yet to prove himself.
Speaking of proving oneself, outside linebacker Kendrell Bell must convince Chiefs fans that the $5 million a year general manager Carl Peterson gave him was not a mistake; Bell suffered a sports hernia in 2004 and consequently never played up to his potential last year.
Schedule and Intangibles: Dante' Hall is still the best punt and kick returner in the NFL. However, special teams are still a liability because kicker Lawrence Tynes connected on just 6-of-11 field goal from beyond 40 yards ... Kansas City has the largest disparity of weather in the NFL. In September, it is scorching and dry, while in December, it is very cold and wet. These factors add up to an outstanding 65-23 home record since 1995. It is also the reason why the Chiefs are at their best in September and December (28-14 and 28-19 since 1995, respectively) ... Kansas City finished second in the AFC West last year, and its schedule matches its result. Soft spots include: San Francisco, St. Louis and Baltimore. However, the Chiefs have to tussle with Cincinnati, Pittsburgh and Jacksonville.
Additional Reading: Peterson's Poor Picks
July 29 Update: I have no choice but to decrease Kansas City's projected win total in the wake of Roaf's unceremonious retirement. With Roaf and Welbourn gone, the Chiefs will be looking at Jordan Black, Kyle Turley, Kevin Sampson Will Svitek competing for two starting jobs on the offensive front. Green's blind side is no longer well protected.
Analysis: Kansas City's modus operandi the past few seasons has been to outscore its opponents. That will not change in 2006, but the Chiefs will be less successful in doing so. They still have gaping holes on defense, while their offense is one of the oldest units in the league.
Projection: 9-7 (2nd in the AFC West).
San Diego Chargers (Last Year: 9-7).
Major Additions:
QB Charlie Whitehurst, WR Rashaun Woods, TE Aaron Shea, TE Brandon Manumaleuna, OT Marcus McNeill, ILB Tim Dobbins, CB Antonio Cromartie, S Marlon McCree.
Major Subtractions:
QB Drew Brees, WR Reche Caldwell, DE DeQuincy Scott, OLB Ben Leber, CB Sammy Davis, CB Jamar Fletcher.
Offense This Year: It's amazing how much San Diego's and Kansas City's offenses have in common. Both have premier tight ends who are No. 1 options; lackluster receivers beyond the top guy on the depth chart; punishing running backs who excel at getting into the end zone and catching the ball out of the backfield; and Pro Bowl-caliber quarterbacks. Oops. Sorry, I was stuck in the past.
General manager A.J. Smith made sure his team was doomed for failure in 2006 by releasing franchise signal caller Drew Brees. Smith plans to go with Philip Rivers, the No. 4 overall selection in the 2004 draft. Keep in mind that Rivers has only thrown 30 passes and one touchdown in two campaigns, compiling a rating of 67.1 in the process. Does anyone else sense that there is something wrong with this maneuver? Whether Rivers emerges as a stud quarterback is inconsequential in 2006; he will struggle during the early stages of the season, especially on the road.
Moreover, Rivers' inexperience won't be the only reason San Diego's offense will be inept this year. Sure, the team has Antonio Gates and LaDainian Tomlinson, two of the better players at their respective positions, but after them the Chargers have nothing. No. 1 wide out Keenan McCardell compiled 917 yards in 2005, but he recently celebrated his 36th birthday. Second receiver Eric Parker (725 yards, 3 TDs) is a No. 3 at best; while backups Rashaun Woods, Vincent Jackson and Kassim Osgood have done nothing in this league.
Moving on to the offensive line, Roman Oben and Shane Olivea are just not good enough to start at tackle. Smith drafted Marcus McNeill in the second round, but who knows when he'll be ready to play. Luckily for Rivers and Tomlinson, the rest of the front -- Kris Dielman, Nick Hardwick and Mike Goff -- is pretty solid.
Defense This Year: For what seemed like the 500th consecutive season, San Diego had trouble stopping aerial attacks, surrendering nearly 3,600 passing yards in 2005. Getting to the quarterback wasn't a problem; rookie outside linebacker Shawne Merriman anchored a pass rush that registered 46 sacks. The fact that the Chargers easily harassed opposing signal callers leaves the secondary to blame. Starting cornerbacks Quentin Jammer and Drayton Florence have both disappointed, while safeties Bhawoh Jue and Terrence Kiel were simply brutal at times.
To counter this, Smith acquired rookie corner Antonio Cromartie, who hasn't played since 2004, and free-agent safety Marlon McCree, a mediocre talent offering a slight upgrade over Jue. It's safe to say that San Diego will once again struggle against the pass.
However, stopping the run will be a different story. Nose tackle Jamal Williams devours guards and centers at the line of scrimmage, permitting an outstanding linebacking corps -- Merriman, Donnie Edwards, Randall Godfrey and Steve Foley -- to wrap up ball carriers. This allowed the Chargers to be ranked third versus opposing ground attacks. That said, there are some age concerns; Godfrey and Edwards both turned 33 on April 6, while Williams and Foley will be 31 soon.
Schedule and Intangibles: Kicker Nate Kaeding is known for his missed field goal in the 2004 playoffs against the New York Jets. However, he made amends by connecting on 21-of-24 attempts in 2005 ... The Chargers did not return a single punt or kick for a touchdown last season, and that needs to change ... San Diego suffered from a very taxing schedule last year, but that's not the case in 2006. Non-divisional foes include: Tennessee, Baltimore, San Francisco, St. Louis and Buffalo.
Additional Reading: General Managing no Breeze for A.J. Smith
Aug. 13 Update: Philip Rivers looks like he's ready for the NFL. I've upgraded San Diego's win total to eight from six, but I wouldn't be surprised if this team claims at least 10 victories in 2006.
Analysis: If Drew Brees were still under center, the Chargers would have an outstanding chance of winning the AFC West. Unfortunately for their fans, the team will have to suffer through Rivers' growing pains.
Projection: 8-8 (3rd in the AFC West).
Oakland Raiders (Last Year: 4-12).
Major Additions:
QB Aaron Brooks, OT Paul McQuistan, OT Kevin Boothe, OLB Thomas Howard, OLB Darnell Bing, CB Tyrone Poole, CB Duane Starks, S Michael Huff.
Major Subtractions:
QB Kerry Collins, G Ron Stone, DE DeLawrence Grant, DT Ed Jasper, DT Ted Washington, MLB Tim Johnson, CB Charles Woodson, CB Renaldo Hill, CB Denard Walker, S Reggie Tongue.
Offense This Year: Remember when everyone was raving about the additions of Randy Moss, LaMont Jordan and Kerry Collins? The Raiders were projected to have the most exciting offense in the NFL last year. Well, that never happened. Oakland scored more than 23 points on just two occasions in 2005. In fact, they were held to less than 14 points four times. So much for being explosive.
The Raiders replaced Collins with a battle at quarterback between Saints-reject Aaron Brooks and second-year Andrew Walter. That isn't much of a choice; Brooks is as inconsistent as they come, throwing four touchdowns one week and five picks the next. Walter, meanwhile, has yet to take a single snap in this league.
However, there are a few positive things about Oakland's offense. LaMont Jordan totaled 1,025 rushing yards, 70 receptions and 11 total touchdowns behind a mediocre offensive line, containing two future Pro Bowlers: left tackle Robert Gallery and center Jake Grove. You can't forget about a receiving corps that is comprised of Randy Moss (60 rec., 1,005 yds), Jerry Porter (76 rec., 942 yds) and Doug Gabriel (37 rec., 563 yds). While Moss may be one of the most physically gifted receivers in the NFL, he also causes a lot of trouble. Sure, he's a team player in the early going, but once the Raiders were 4-6 and clearly out of the playoff picture, things got sour. Oakland consequently lost its final six games of the season.
With an unsettled quarterback situation (Walter will be the starter by the middle of November), a malcontent leader at wide out, holes on the right side of the offensive line that helped surrender 45 sacks last season, and a gaping void at tight end, it's going to be another long year for Al Davis.
Defense This Year: The Raiders surrendered more than 30 points on five occasions in 2005, and to make matters worse, they lost Charles Woodson, Ed Jasper, Ted Washington and a pair veteran cornerbacks -- Renaldo Hill and Denard Walker -- this offseason.
Oakland was 20th against the run last year, permitting 4.1 yards per carry to opposing runners. Washington's departure can only worsen that statistic; the run-stuffer has been replaced by pedestrian defensive tackle Tommy Kelly, who gives up 65 pounds to Washington. A small and fairly untalented group of tackles -- 33-year-old Warren Sapp is the other -- means that the Raiders will be extremely weak against ground attacks. They will have to constantly place eight men in the box, which will put a tremendous amount of stress on a very young secondary.
Starting corners Nnamdi Asomugha and second-year Fabian Washington are both very raw and unseasoned. Michael Huff, the team's No. 1 pick, will start at free safety, while strong safety Derrick Gibson is the only starting defensive back with more than three years of NFL experience.
Oakland needs two things to happen in order to reach mediocrity once again: Derrick Burgess must duplicate his 16-sack campaign; and rookies Huff and outside linebacker Thomas Howard need to step up right away. It's going to be another long year for Al Davis.
Schedule and Intangibles: The Black Hole seems like an intimidating place to play, but the Raiders are surprisingly just 46-42 at home since 1995 ... Oakland finished in last place in 2005, meaning they have a last-place schedule. Easy, non-divisional opponents include: Baltimore, San Francisco, Houston, St. Louis and the New York Jets.
Analysis: I wrote this in my Power Rankings page, but why not use it again? Aaron Brooks at quarterback + Randy Moss as an offensive leader + Warren Sapp as a defensive leader = Another long year for Al Davis.
Projection: 2-14 (4th in the AFC West).
2001 Season Preview
2002 Season Preview
2003 Season Preview:
AFC East / AFC North / AFC South / AFC West
NFC East / NFC North / NFC South / NFC West
Playoffs / Awards
2004 Season Preview:
AFC East / AFC North / AFC South / AFC West
NFC East / NFC North / NFC South / NFC West
Playoffs / Awards / Simulation
2005 Season Preview:
AFC East / AFC North / AFC South / AFC West
NFC East / NFC North / NFC South / NFC West
Playoffs / Awards / Simulation
2006 Season Preview:
AFC East / AFC North / AFC South / AFC West
NFC East / NFC North / NFC South / NFC West
Playoffs / Awards / Simulation
2007 Season Preview:
Buffalo / Miami / New England / New York Jets
Baltimore / Cincinnati / Cleveland / Pittsburgh
Houston / Indianapolis / Jacksonville / Tennessee
Denver / Kansas City / Oakland / San Diego
Dallas / New York Giants / Philadelphia / Washington
Chicago / Detroit / Green Bay / Minnesota
Atlanta / Carolina / New Orleans / Tampa Bay
Arizona / San Francisco / Seattle / St. Louis
Playoffs / Awards / Simulation
© 1999-2013 Walter Cherepinsky : all rights reserved
Privacy Policy
2 5 9