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NFL Sharps Picks: Week 14



NFL Sharps Picks: Week 14

This is a compilation of what the top handicappers in the Las Vegas Hilton Super Contest are selecting each week. I'd like to thank Matvei for sending this over and providing great analysis for it.

Here's how to read the chart below:

- The first team is the sharps' pick.

- The first number is how many sharps are taking that team.

- The figure in the parantheses is the difference between the number of sharps taking that team versus the number of sharps betting against them.

- The second team is the opponent.

- The number at the end is the number of sharps taking the opponent.



Here's this week's Sharps picks:


Seattle 16 [16*] St Louis 0
San Francisco 21 [15] Arizona 6
Detroit 13 [13*] Minnesota 0
Atlanta 15 [12] Carolina 3
New England 12 [9] Washington 3
Houston 14 [8] Cincinnati 6
NY Giants 12 [8] Dallas 4
Green Bay 13 [7] Oakland 6
San Diego 7 [5] Buffalo 2
Tampa Bay 6 [3] Jacksonville 3
Tennessee 11 [2] New Orleans 9
Miami 7 [2] Philadelphia 5
NY Jets 6 [2] Kansas City 4
Chicago 7 [1] Denver 6
Indianapolis 3 [1] Baltimore 2



Matvei's Analysis:

Please note that the Seahawks and Lions both have much better lines in the contest than they do at the moment in Vegas (both -7), which ought to explain the preponderance of action on their side(s).

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longshot7 10-22-2011 07:18 pm xxx.xxx.xxx8.63 (total posts: 1)
18     18

what was the Raiders/Chiefs line they used and NYJ/SD?
@Obi 10-22-2011 05:47 pm xxx.xxx.xxx9.39 (total posts: 1)
18     17

@Obi

Those consensus picks are the FIELD consensus, not the leaders' consensus.
Obi One 10-19-2011 06:56 am xxx.xxx.xxx.140 (total posts: 3)
19     18

Follow to link below to see that in last year's contest, not a single time the consensus picks managed to go 5-0. Moreoften it was 3-2 and 2-3 with a couple of 4-1's pushed in between, but those were just 2 times. Also the sharp's picks didn't pan out really well. Just to show how difficult it is to handicap the NFL in particular and sports in general.

Guess you'll have to do it yourself, instead of relying on the smartboys from Vegas.....sigh! :)

http://www.thelogicalapproach.com/hilton_contest_results_2010.htm
bird 10-18-2011 03:48 pm xxx.xxx.xxx.206 (total posts: 2)
22     24

I read JETS & UNDER like a book. My write-up was pretty much the plot of the game haha. BIG MONEY!!!!

bird
bird 10-17-2011 04:40 pm xxx.xxx.xxx.206 (total posts: 2)
20     17

FINS@JETS MNF TONIGHT

I understand Fins +7 is generous considering the instability of Jets offense. Sanchez looks awful, Greene cant establish the run, they have had offensive line problems, Mason was just traded, Holmes is complaining he doesnt get the ball enough and they need to throw more deep balls. They are all pointing fingers, are unfocused, and their once promising last years team is on the verge of collapse.

That being said, how can you bet on the Fins? I noticed the winnless teams ATS trend is in favor of the Fins covering tonight but I want to ask, how? The Fins are 0-4 for a reason. And now they have Matt Moore as their starting QB. Clearly, he will struggle against the tough Jets defense who will be licking their chops against Moore. Thomas will find it difficult to establish the run against Rex Ryan's stout defense and blitz scheme. Bush has not been anything to talk about at all, unless he is in open field with no defenders around him, which wont happen against the desperate Jets. On top of all that, the Fins #1 playmaker on offense Marshall has started he will be ejected before halftime for fighting. How are they going to score?

I see the once decent, ball control, run game, tough defensive, desperate Jets possibly getting it done at home, where they have not lost yet, because they love the hype and attention. This should be a slow, clock management, defensive, run game with not many big plays. Both teams are out of whack and have been pathetic as of late.

I could see the JETS-7 & UNDER 42 tonight.
It seems like a long, drawn out, ugly game.
I dont buy the sharps are jumping on the Fins.
Judging by Walt's Sharps Page, most of them are on the Jets.
And the sharps record this week is crushing the public.

Good Luck. Let me know what you guys think. I think the Jets have to perform tonight or their season is over. I believe they get up early and rely on their defense to not allow the Fins to make bigs plays. I dont see how the Fins can make big plays, if any plays for that matter....

bird
The NFL rat 10-16-2011 07:17 am xxx.xxx.xxx.118 (total posts: 1)
27     16

So Walt, what do you make of the sharps picking Dallas? I really liked Dallas a lot until I read your preview. They get all starters in that secondary back, and should also be healthy again on the offensive side. Romo is gonna torch that Pat secondary. But, of course he could opt to throw the game away late, but they could still cover.
Giants today! 10-16-2011 07:11 am xxx.xxx.xxx.134 (total posts: 1)
25     40

The Giants are a easy cover today They will not come out flat and will play hard for the crowd after last week and win 23-17
Obi One 10-16-2011 04:09 am xxx.xxx.xxx7.32 (total posts: 1)
17     17

@Walt

Your picks are looking good, should be a 4-1 week, minimum. Hopefully a 5-0 week.

Kinda confusing if I pick 4 teams differently from the Azurri.99 team, while they went 10-0 over their last 10 picks.....

10-3 over my last 13,
Gonna make for an interesting Sunday. Good luck everybody!
Ryan B. 10-16-2011 12:41 am xxx.xxx.xxx9.46 (total posts: 1)
17     18

Thanks,

As if I don't have enough on my mind when it comes to picking a winner lol.

Seriously though, I like to know the opinions of other cappers, even if I do feel like it just makes it harder to make a decision.
johnhychimpo 10-16-2011 12:25 am xxx.xxx.xxx.149 (total posts: 1)
43     22

the panthers roll into atlanta and pull off a shocker 27-26 (PANTHERS PLUS 4)
saints roll over bucs 41-20 (no minus 6)
dallas loses it late again, but covers 26-23 (dallas plus 7)
bears bounce back big 24-16(bears minus 3)
philly finally gets it done 27-21 (eagles minus 3)
THE UPSTART BENGALS MOVE TO 4 AND 2 (but dont cover winning 20-14)
who dey

Phil Elliott 10-15-2011 10:22 pm xxx.xxx.xxx.177 (total posts: 1)
18     18

Kick ass job, Matvei!
Thanks for sharing your work.

Thanks to Walter for posting this and making it easy to find!
hgh testing 10-15-2011 07:14 pm xxx.xxx.xxx.234 (total posts: 1)
16     21

i luv the browns getting points.
browns win out right alot went into last weeks win for the raiders...
hillis wiill be susspended soon....
Walter 10-15-2011 05:34 pm xxx.xxx.xxx4.88 (total posts: 2)
165     189

First comment... we're going to have comment boards like this all over the site soon. We're still working out the kinks, so this is not the finished product.




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