Last update: Wednesday, Jan. 23, 2013.
Major changes in all 4 rounds.
Next update: Next week. Follow me @walterfootball
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2013 NFL Mock Draft - Round 2
Kansas City Chiefs: Geno Smith, QB, West Virginia
I wrote earlier that this pick largely depended on what would happen with Scott Pioli. If Pioli were retained, he'd draft Luke Joeckel and then use his second-round pick on Mike Glennon, whom he likes. If Pioli were fired, however, as the awesome @saveourchiefs movement was pushing for, the new general manager would almost have to take a franchise quarterback.
Well, it was the latter situation that occurred. Andy Reid was hired, while Pioli was axed. New regimes mean new quarterbacks, but whether that means Reid will spend this selection on a quarterback or sign his aging, scrambling signal-caller from Philadelphia remains to be seen. Nick Foles is also an option via trade since Foles doesn't fit Chip Kelly's offense. Kelly gushed about Foles recently, but that was obviously to increase the incumbent quarterback's trade value.
If history is any indication, Reid will use this pick on Geno Smith. Reid eschewed all the top free-agent quarterbacks when he took over as the Eagles' head coach, taking a mobile, Big East product with a good deep ball and upside instead. Well, Smith is a mobile, (former) Big East product with a good deep ball and upside. He fits perfectly into Reid's offense.
ESPN and other outlets will tell you that Smith nor any other signal-caller is worth taking No. 1 overall, but that could easily change. Remember two years ago when ESPN was mocking Da'Quan Bowers and Nick Fairley to the Panthers? Well, Cam Newton ballooned to the top, as will some other quarterback this year. It could be Smith, Tyler Wilson, Matt Barkley or Glennon. We'll see. Four months is a long time. If this doesn't happen, the Chiefs could always trade down.
By the way, I'm doing this live because I thought it'd be fun to get instant feedback. I'm going to post my mock anyway, so why not do it this way? Follow @walterfootball for updates.
Jacksonville Jaguars: Star Lotulelei, NT, Utah
Chris Mortensen previously reported that Tim Tebow would be a Jaguar next year. Well, new general manager David Caldwell shot that down, telling the media he couldn't imagine Tebow being on his roster. Caldwell went on to say that he still thinks Blaine Gabbert deserves a chance to prove himself. Yeah, the future looks very bright in Jacksonville.
I'd love to give the Jaguars a quarterback here, but there are none available. Maybe Caldwell will reach because he sounds crazy enough to do that, but he can get a signal-caller atop Round 2. Instead, he might take the top defensive player in the 2013 NFL Draft.
Tyson Alualu has been a major disappointment thus far, but the real reason why Star Lotulelei makes sense is because Terrance Knighton will be a free agent in March. Jacksonville will obviously have big shoes to fill if it can't retain him.
Pick change; previously Jarvis Jones, DE/OLB
Oakland Raiders: Damontre Moore, DE/OLB, Texas A&M
The Raiders really missed Kamerion Wimbley. There's a reason only the Jaguars had fewer sacks in the NFL this year. Oakland needs to find a legitimate pass-rusher. This is a situation in which the top player available aligns with a huge need.
Damontre Moore said earlier that he planned on returning to school, but he officially changed his mind recently after learning that he was close to being a top-five lock with a shot at going as high as No. 2 to Jacksonville.
Pick change; previously Star Lotulelei, DT
Philadelphia Eagles: Luke Joeckel, OT, Texas A&M
There's no question the Eagles have to upgrade their offensive line. Their tackle position is in shambles. Jason Peters tore his Achilles; Demetress Bell has been a bust signing; while King Dunlap simply sucks. Even if Peters comes back close to 100 percent, an upgrade could be made at right tackle, which would allow Todd Herremans to move back to his natural guard position.
Luke Joeckel had a slow start to his 2012 campaign, but he improved tremendously in the second half of the season, even stifling the LSU pass-rushers. He could easily go in the top four, right after a quarterback and some order of Jarvis Jones and Star Lotulelei. It wouldn't even surprise me to see him go No. 1 overall if Andy Reid signs or trades for a veteran quarterback.
Detroit Lions: Bjoern Werner, DE/OLB, Florida State
The Lions' draft strategy is to pick the top player on their board. It just so happens that the best prospect available happens to fill a huge need.
Kyle Vanden Bosch likely won't be back with the team next season because of his $5 million salary, while the other exterior pass-rushers, excluding Cliff Avril, have barely done anything this year.
Pick change; previously Damontre Moore, DE
Cleveland Browns: Barkevious Mingo, DE/OLB, LSU
The Browns have to find a franchise quarterback to compete for the AFC North. There are none worth taking here, however, but that's OK because they need to improve their pass rush as well. Jabaal Sheard led the team in sacks with only seven. Juqua Parker-Thomas was next with six, and he'll be a 35-year-old free agent this offseason.
It's either Barkevious Mingo or Jarvis Jones at this spot, but the Browns may opt to be cautious because the latter has too many red flags.
Pick change; previously Bjoern Werner, DE/OLB
Arizona Cardinals: Jarvis Jones, DE/OLB, Georgia
I had Jarvis Jones going No. 2 overall in my previous update, but check out Charlie's rumor mill entry on why Jones is expected to slide (and it's not just the spine problem).
Jones is great value here though. He would bolster an inconsistent pass rush and displace the injury-prone O'Brien Schofield.
Pick change; previously Barkevious Mingo, DE/OLB
Buffalo Bills: Mike Glennon, QB, N.C. State
This is a reach - I had Mike Glennon in the second round a couple of updates ago - but we've seen second-day talents like Blaine Gabbert and Christian Ponder go in the top 12. Teams are so desperate for quarterbacks that they'll make moves like this.
General manager Buddy Nix, who is generally forthcoming about his offseason plans, told the media that he plans on drafting a franchise quarterback. He even said he'll trade up for one in the 2013 NFL Draft. He may have been talking about Geno Smith if the Chiefs pass on him, but he won't have to move anywhere for Glennon.
It's still early, but I believe Glennon and Tyler Wilson are the two favorites for this selection. Nix will talk himself into taking one of them. Glennon is getting the most hype right now, with Mel Kiper even saying that he could be the first quarterback off the board. I liked this pick more when Chan Gailey was still the coach, as Glennon fit perfectly into his offense.
Of course, new head coach Doug Marrone may want Ryan Nassib, but it's not uncommon for a college coach to pass on his former players. For instance, we saw this in Seattle when Pete Carroll eschewed picking Taylor Mays in favor of the superior Earl Thomas.
New York Jets: Kenny Vaccaro, S, Texas
The Jets have so many holes on their roster that they'll be free to take one of the top players available. Kenny Vaccaro is the clear-cut top safety in this class, and it wouldn't surprise me if he makes a draft-day leap much like Mark Barron did last year.
Addressing the safety position is very important for New York, given that the Patriots rely on their tight ends so much. LaRon Landry is currently a free agent, and he told the media that he would not be taking a hometown discount.
Pick change; previously Ezekiel Ansah, DE/OLB
Tennessee Titans: DeMarcus Milliner, CB, Alabama
The Titans were interested in drafting a highly ranked cornerback at No. 20 back in April, but neither Stephon Gilmore nor Dre Kirkpatrick fell to them. Maybe they'll have more luck in the 2013 NFL Draft, as they do in this situation with one of the top players available filling a big need. Alterraun Verner will be entering his contract year in 2013, so Tennessee will need a new starter if it can't retain him. Besides, the Titans need to fix their 24th-ranked pass defense.
San Diego Chargers: Eric Fisher, OT, Central Michigan
Mike Mayock recently stated that Eric Fisher will challenge Luke Joeckel to be the top tackle chosen in the 2013 NFL Draft. Mayock's not the only one to be touting Fisher recently. He's rising, so the latest I could see him going is the No. 11 spot.
This is such an obvious pick. Fisher is perhaps the top prospect available, and the Chargers need him. Philip Rivers appears to be regressing, but it's impossible to tell if that's the case because he's getting slaughtered behind a pathetic offensive line. San Diego cannot, under any circumstances, enter the 2013 season with Jared Gaither as its starting left tackle. He's just way too injury-prone and unreliable.
Pick change; previously Johnathan Hankins, NT
Miami Dolphins: Cordarrelle Patterson, WR, Tennessee
This draft class definitely stinks at the top, so teams might be willing to take more chances. Cordarrelle Patterson is the most physically gifted receiver available, and it's not even close. He's just incredibly raw, but so was Ryan Tannehill coming out of Texas A&M. The Dolphins will love the potential they'll have with Tannehill and Patterson working in tandem.
Tampa Bay Buccaneers: Johnthan Banks, CB, Mississippi State
The Buccaneers decided they didn't like Morris Claiborne very much, so they traded out of the No. 5 spot in the 2012 NFL Draft and selected Mark Barron two picks later. They really need cornerback help, especially in the wake of the Aqib Talib trade, so they'll almost have to remedy that need at this juncture. Maybe another SEC defensive back will be the answer.
Carolina Panthers: Johnathan Hankins, NT, Ohio State
I was told by a reliable source not to mock Fletcher Cox to the Panthers because they were satisfied with their current group of defensive tackles. Based on the rushing yardage they recently surrendered to Bryce Brown and Jamaal Charles, I highly doubt they'll feel the same way in April. Besides, Johnathan Hankins is one of the best players available.
Pick change; previously Sheldon Richardson, DT
New Orleans Saints: Sheldon Richardson, DT, Missouri
Sedrick Ellis has been a bust. He'll be hitting free agency this March, so it's unlikely he'll be back with the team. Canadian Akiem Hicks has played well, but the Saints need someone next to him who can rush the passer on the interior. Sheldon Richardson, who was phenomenal this past season, could be that guy.
Pick change; previously Eric Fisher, OT
St. Louis Rams: Chance Warmack, G, Alabama
Guards seldom have a chance to go in the top 15, but Chance Warmack has a shot because he's a special talent. Besides, he's the top prospect available who makes sense for St. Louis.
The Rams desperately need to upgrade their offensive front. Jeff Fisher played against the Texans twice per year when he was with Tennessee, and he watched Houston completely ruin David Carr's career by not building a competent offensive line around him. He won't want to make the same mistake with Sam Bradford.
Go to 2013 NFL Mock Draft: Picks 17-32
Sorry for cutting this into two halves; I've received complaints about load times and putting the mock draft on two pages saves bandwidth.
2013 NFL Mock Draft - Round 3
2013 NFL Mock Draft - Round 4
2014 NFL Mock Draft
2021 NFL Mock Draft - March 2
2022 NFL Mock Draft - Feb. 24
NFL Power Rankings - Feb. 11
NFL Picks - Feb. 8
Fantasy Football Rankings - Jan. 11
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