Week 11 NFL Picks

NFL Picks (Week 1, 2008): 11-5 (+$1,470)
NFL Picks (Week 2, 2008): 7-7-1 (-$100)
NFL Picks (Week 3, 2008): 10-6 (+$860)
NFL Picks (Week 4, 2008): 6-7 (-$350)
NFL Picks (Week 5, 2008): 8-6 (+$230)
NFL Picks (Week 6, 2008): 9-5 (+$2,260)
NFL Picks (Week 7, 2008): 4-10 (-$770)
NFL Picks (Week 8, 2008): 9-4-1 (+$1,620)
NFL Picks (Week 9, 2008): 6-8 (-$980)
NFL Picks (Week 10, 2008): 4-10 (-$2,690)

NFL Picks (Reg Season 2008): 74-68-2 (+$1,550)
If you don’t quite understand the line, total or anything else, go to my Sports Betting FAQ.

Vegas betting action updated Nov. 18, 4:35 p.m. ET.

Go to Week 11 NFL Picks – Early Games

Arizona Cardinals (6-3) at Seattle Seahawks (2-7)
Line: Cardinals by 3. Total: 47.5.
Walt’s Projected Line (Before Week 10): Cardinals -4.
Walt’s Projected Line (After Week 10): Cardinals -4.5.
Sunday, 4:05 ET – Buy Tickets

The Game. Edge: Cardinals.

Injuries: Cardinals: OUT: C Scott Peters (IR). Seahawks: OUT: WR Nate Burleson (IR), WR Ben Obomanu (IR), WR Logan Payne (IR), G Rob Sims (IR). EXPECTED TO PLAY: QB Matt Hasselbeck, WR Deion Branch.

You know, I’ve spent a few weeks trying to figure out Mike Singletary’s odd behavior after his team was debacled by the Seahawks. Unfortunately, I didn’t find out until Mike Ditka said it on Sunday NFL Countdown. After an excerpt of an interview Ditka conducted with Singletary, Ditka, known for speaking quickly and consequently seldom finishing his sentences, said the following of Singletary’s actions:

“You can’t have regrets. You’re a football.”

Ah ha! The reason Singletary booted Vernon Davis off the field and mooned his team at halftime is because he’s a football! It’s all clear now!

The Seattle team that defeated the 49ers will have a different look on Sunday. I’m referring to the return of Matt Hasselbeck and Deion Branch.

SEATTLE OFFENSE: Unfortunately for the Seahawks, they’re four out of the division lead, so they’ll need to win all of their games just to have a chance to qualify for the Doggone Playoff.

That’s obviously a long shot; even winning this game seems difficult. Though Hasselbeck is infinitely more talented than Seneca “The Backdoor Bandit” Wallace, he and his top receiver are coming back from a long layoff. I can’t see the offense clicking right away, despite the fact that Arizona is 22nd against the pass.

The one thing the Cardinals’ defense is great at is shutting down the run. They’re ranked sixth in that department. Take away a 20-yard carry on Monday night, and they gave up less than four yards per carry to one of the NFL’s best running backs.

With Julius Jones and Maurice Morris being non-factors in this offense, there will be more pressure on Hasselbeck to advance the chains. Again, it’s his first week back, so I can’t see that happening.

ARIZONA OFFENSE: You can’t fault Seattle’s offense for struggling this year; the team’s receiving corps has been ravaged with injuries, while Hasslebeck also missed a significant amount of time. However, you can blame the Seahawks’ defense for sucking, particularly against the pass.

Being soft in the secondary is never a good thing when you’re playing the Cardinals. Kurt Warner is going to set the NFL’s 26th-ranked secondary ablaze.

Meanwhile, Tim Hightower should be able to find some holes against a seven-man front. The Seahawks are 14th versus the rush.

RECAP: If the Backdoor Bandit were slated to start again, I might have sided with Seattle, getting more points against an unfocused Cardinals squad. However, with Hasselbeck in the lineup, Arizona could be mentally prepared, knowing the Seahawks will offer more of a challenge.

This is a bigger game for the Cardinals than you may think. Sure, they could be looking ahead to playing the Giants next week, but after nearly getting debacled by the lowly 49ers on Monday night, they could be playing for respect. They also need to prove that they can win on the road.

The Psychology. Edge: Seahawks.

With Matt Hasselbeck starting, Arizona might be focused. If not, this is a Look-Ahead Alert to the Giants game next week.

The Vegas. Edge: Seahawks.

Everyone is on Arizona. Why is the line only -3?

Percentage of money on Arizona: 85% (116,000 bets)

The Trends. Edge: Seahawks.

History: Home Team has won 8 of the last 9 meetings.

Opening Line: Cardinals -3.

Opening Total: 48.5.

Weather: Cloudy, 53 degrees. Light wind.

Week 11 NFL Pick: Cardinals 30, Seahawks 20
Cardinals -3 (1 Unit) — Correct; +$100
Over 47.5 (1 Unit) — Incorrect; -$110
Cardinals 26, Seahawks 20

St. Louis Rams (2-7) at San Francisco 49ers (2-7)
Line: 49ers by 7. Total: 43.5.
Walt’s Projected Line (Before Week 10): 49ers -2.

Walt’s Projected Line (After Week 10): 49ers -7.
Sunday, 4:05 ET – Buy Tickets

The Game. Edge: 49ers.

Injuries: Rams: OUT: RB Steven Jackson*, FB Brian Leonard (IR), WR Drew Bennett (IR), TE Randy McMichael (IR), OT Brandon Gorin (IR), G Mark Setterstrom (IR), CB Justin King (IR), CB Ricky Manning Jr., KR Dante Hall (IR). 49ers: OUT: QB Alex Smith (IR), FB Zak Keasey (IR), WR Josh Morgan*, WR Arnaz Battle, OLB Jay Moore (IR), CB Shawntae Spencer (IR).

The 10th installment of the new Emmitt Smith feature will be up on FRIDAY! The year is 2013. Coming off a Week 1 victory, the Patriots get into trouble for Sypgate II. Roger Goodell orders the team to replace Bill Belichick with Emmitt.

Week 2: Emmitt wins his first game against the Falcons, 11-4, despite major confusion and thanks in part to a Michael Vick arrest. Week 3: Something interesting happens to the Bengals, Emmitt screws up again and a key Patriot is lost for the year. Week 4: The Lions-Patriots contest gets moved to Detroit. Find out why, and discover who the new GM of the Lions is. Week 5: Herm Edwards screws up in the battle of the unbeatens! Week 6: Dennis Green blows a record lead and has to be taken to the mental hospital! In Week 7, Al Davis finds proof that Emmitt and Green conspired to lose on purpose. Week 8: Roger Goodell cancels all games for a mysterious reason. Week 9: A steroids scandal rocks Foxborough!

Now, in Week 10, both Emmitt and Anthony Morelli were very busy during an interesting bye week. Find out what happened on Friday! Each week, I’ll follow the 2013 Patriots from a newspaper reporter’s perspective. Get ready for 2013: Emmitt on the Brink!

Is Steven Jackson an MVP candidate? Of course not, but based on the way the Rams have played without him the past two years, you’d think he was. I just added the following trend below: The Rams are 2-6 against the spread the past season and a half when Jackson is either out or very limited.

ST. LOUIS OFFENSE: Given that figure, it’s clear just how important Jackson is to this offense. It’s pretty sad, actually, that St. Louis can’t do anything without him.

Jackson is currently listed day-to-day, whatever that means. Jim Haslett declared that Jackson won’t be able to play if he doesn’t put a full day of practice in, so we’ll see what happens this week. But even if Jackson practices once or twice, there’s no guarantee that he’ll last the entire game.

If Jackson can’t go, it’ll be Antonio Pittman, Kenneth Darby, Samkon Gado, Robert Holcombe, Trung Canidate and whomever else the Rams have in their backfield. And does it even matter? Unless Jackson is 80 percent or better, the Rams won’t be able to run against the 49ers’ seventh-ranked rush defense.

Without the prospect of a running game, Marc Bulger will continue to struggle. San Francisco will easily beat St. Louis’ pathetic offensive line, forcing the suddenly horrendous Bulger into a multitude of turnovers.

SAN FRANCISCO OFFENSE: Though Shaun Hill made some errors at the end of the Arizona game, I still think he did a much better than J.T. O’Sullivan. Hill actually got rid of the ball quickly and moved the chains on a consistent basis.

The 49ers shouldn’t have a problem converting third downs against the Rams. St. Louis is 30th versus the rush, so look for Frank Gore to have a big game. This will open the play-action door for Hill, who will easily torch one of the worst defensive backfields in the NFL.

RECAP: The Rams just can’t match up with other teams if they don’t have Jackson in the lineup. Based on early reports, it doesn’t look like Jackson will play much.

If things change, and Jackson has multiple full practices this week, I may reconsider this selection. For now, I’m siding with the host.

The Psychology. Edge: None.
A meaningless game in the grand scheme of things (except for the 2009 NFL Draft), but have the Rams quit on Jim Haslett? I don’t think they have, but that could be public perception.

The Vegas. Edge: Rams.

Action is on the 49ers, but the books have pushed this line up to -7 from -6.

Percentage of money on San Francisco: 75% (81,000 bets)

The Trends. Edge: 49ers.

History: 49ers have won 4 of the last 6 meetings.

Road Warrior: Coaches are 121-80 ATS on the road following a road loss since 1996.

Rams are 18-33 ATS in road games since 2001.

Rams are 11-22 ATS on grass since 2001.

Rams are 2-6 ATS when Steven Jackson is out or limited since 2007.

Opening Line: 49ers -6.

Opening Total: 44.5.

Weather: Sunny, 70 degrees. Light wind.

Week 11 NFL Pick: 49ers 27, Rams 3
49ers -7 (1 Unit) — Correct; +$100
Under 43.5 (.5 Units) — Incorrect; -$55
49ers 35, Rams 16

San Diego Chargers (4-5) at Pittsburgh Steelers (6-3)
Line: Steelers by 5. Total: 42.
Walt’s Projected Line (Before Week 10): Steelers -6.
Walt’s Projected Line (After Week 10): Steelers -6.
Sunday, 4:15 ET – Buy Tickets

The Game. Edge: Steelers.
Injuries: Chargers: OUT: WR Eric Parker (IR). Steelers: OUT: QB Charlie Batch, RB Rashard Mendenhall (IR), TE Heath Miller*, G Kendall Simmons (IR), CB Bryant McFadden, CB Deshea Townsend, P Daniel Sepulveda (IR), LS Greg Warren (IR).

More quotes to be featured in the upcoming Emmitt Anthology: Volume 2. Here’s a link to the original Emmitt Anthology.

1. “Keep your feet! If he do, it�s touchdown, baby!” (Commentary: Emmitt apparently loses all control of his grammar when he gets excited. One can only imagine what happens when he “have a sexy time.” “You gaved me the rice of passage, baby!”)

2. “The big toe is such an important factor for runnin’ back when you have to make cuts. So for L.T., that toe is bothering him so bad, that he cannot make the cut he want to make.” (Commentary: But apparently, being able to use verbs is not an important factor for TV analysts…)

3. “Well, obviously, LaDainian, his body is goin to go through significant changes and L.T. need to recognize that … right around that middle time frame is when your body go through something that as a young player, you’re not accustom to.” (Commentary: Oh, boy. When Emmitt’s son grows up, this is going to be an awkward and grammatically flawed conversation.)

SAN DIEGO OFFENSE: Thanks for bringing up Tomlinson, Emmitt. If you pick up the USA Today Sports Weekly and check out Page 11, you’ll see why I think Tomlinson should be benched this week in all non-PPR Fantasy Leagues. Thanks to a turf toe problem, Tomlinson just isn’t getting the job done; he has one touchdown since the Raiders game on Sept. 28, and he’s averaging just 66.6 yards per game since Week 4.

Tomlinson won’t get anything done against the Steelers’ dominant run defense, ranked third in the NFL. That means Philip Rivers will have to do things on his own, which is never good against Pittsburgh’s hectic rush.

San Diego’s line has protected Rivers well this year (12 sacks), but trying to block players in Dick LeBeau’s zone-blitz scheme can be problematic for the best offensive fronts in the business. There’s a reason Pittsburgh is ranked first against the pass. It should be noted, however, that the Steelers will be without corners Bryant McFadden and Deshea Townsend in this contest.

PITTSBURGH OFFENSE: Ben Roethlisberger is iffy again, but it appears as though he’s going to play. Roethlisberger appeared to be fine last week – that is, until he threw a pair of careless, unforced interceptions at the end of each half, pretty much ruining any chance Pittsburgh had of winning that game.

Theoretically, Roethlisberger should be able to have a solid outing. Without Shawne Merriman, the Chargers can’t get to the quarterback, putting more pressure on their secondary. Roethlisberger should also get support from Mewelde Moore and/or Willie Parker versus San Diego’s 20th-ranked rush defense.

However, there is no telling how Big Ben will perform. He’s playing hurt right now behind one of the league’s worst offensive lines. That’s undoubtedly why he’s so apprehensive in the pocket.

RECAP: Toughest game to call this week. I wouldn’t lay a penny on either side.

But because I have to choose, I’m siding with the Chargers. Roethlisberger’s shoulder worries me, while the injuries Pittsburgh has in its secondary could really cost them against a very talented receiving corps.

The Psychology. Edge: None.
Now that the Steelers no longer have a grip on the AFC North, this is a big game for both teams.

The Vegas. Edge: Chargers.

Lots of cash being thrown on the Steelers, which is understandable after San Diego’s lackluster performance against the Chiefs. The good news for Pittsburgh bettors is that this line has moved up a whole point, and 1.5 points in some places.

Percentage of money on Pittsburgh: 71% (143,000 bets)

The Trends. Edge: Steelers.

Winning Coach: Mike Tomlin is 4-1 ATS immediately after losing as a favorite.

Ben Roethlisberger is 50-20 as a starter (41-29 ATS).

Opening Line: Steelers -3.5.

Opening Total: 43.

Weather: Cloudy, 31 degrees. Mild wind, 16 mph.

Week 11 NFL Pick: Steelers 20, Chargers 17
Chargers +5 (1 Unit) — Correct; +$100
Under 42 (.5 Units) — Correct; +$50
Steeelers 11, Chargers 10

Dallas Cowboys (5-4) at Washington Redskins (6-3)
Line: Cowboys by 1. Total: 43.
Walt’s Projected Line (Before Week 10): Redskins -3.

Walt’s Projected Line (After Week 10): Redskins -3

Sunday, 8:15 ET – Buy Tickets

The Game. Edge: Cowboys.

Injuries: Cowboys: OUT: RB Felix Jones, WR Sam Hurd (IR), G Kyle Kosier, CB Pacman Jones (SUSP), S Roy Williams (IR), P Mat McBriar (IR). Redskins: OUT: DE Jason Taylor, DE Phillip Daniels (IR), S Reed Doughty (IR).

No one lost for the second week in a row, so there are still only FOUR people remaining in the WalterFootball.com $350 Survivor Pool. I’ll continue to offer my advice for those who want it, and others who have entered in a new Survivor Contest.

If you need another excuse to hit up the forums, check out the Heroes Discussion Thread, which includes a picture of the four villains Hiro needs to find, detailed discussion about Episode 7, Villains, and very hot pictures of Claire. I like! Do you like!?

I put this lead here because this is the matchup that ruined my Survivor entry. The stupid Cowboys couldn’t even beat Washington straight up as double-digit favorites. Whatever. I’ll get to my survivor analysis after I make this pick.

DALLAS OFFENSE: Tony Romo is back! The Cowboys are saved!

If you read my Seattle-Arizona write-up, you may ask why Dallas’ offense will improve right away. Won’t Romo be rusty? He will, but it’s not like his main weapons have been out as well. It’s the same offense; just a different quarterback. Seattle, meanwhile, will also be welcoming Deion Branch back.

Romo also had the entire bye week to practice, so he’ll be sharper than Hasselbeck. The Cowboys better hope so because Shawn Springs is returning to the lineup. In the previous matchup between these two squads, Springs completely shut down Terrell Owens.

With that in mind, it’s not like the Cowboys couldn’t move the chains. They were just overconfident and didn’t give Marion Barber enough carries. Because this is Romo’s first game back, you better believe that Barber will get tons of touches. Washington is a pedestrian 15th versus the rush.

WASHINGTON OFFENSE: After setting the league ablaze with four consecutive offensive outputs of 23 points or more from Week 2 to Week 5, the Redskins have averaged just 15.5 points per contest since, scoring more than 17 only once (at Detroit).

As if their recent offensive struggles weren’t enough, there’s a good chance Clinton Portis will miss this game. Even if he heals up and plays, you saw what happened with Steven Jackson a few weeks ago. The Rams though he was good to go, yet he had to leave the contest in the first quarter, which completely destroyed their game plan.

If Portis is limited or out, I don’t see how Washington will move the chains. The Cowboys won’t respect the run and will focus on shutting down the Redskins’ aerial attack, which has been stagnant lately.

RECAP: The Cowboys need this game a lot more than Washington does. There’s no doubt about that. Dallas won’t be overconfident against the suddenly offensively challenged Redskins this time around.

SURVIVOR ANALYSIS: I love Carolina against the Lions this week for obvious reasons. I also like the Eagles at Cincinnati, though I’m always apprehensive about taking road teams.

Unfortunately, I’ve used both squads already. Instead, I’ll go with the Colts over the Sage Rosenchoker-led Texans. I also looked at the 49ers as a viable option.

The Psychology. Edge: Cowboys.
Dallas needs to win now. Washington hates Dallas and won’t let them. Big game for both sides

The Vegas. Edge: Redskins.

The public went from liking Washington, to betting equally, to favoring Dallas. I don’t know…

Percentage of money on Dallas: 73% (107,000 bets)

The Trends. Edge: Cowboys.

History: Redskins have won 5 of the last 7 meetings.

Tony Romo is 15-8 ATS as a starter before Dec. 1.

Tony Romo is 9-4 ATS on the road.

Opening Line: Cowboys -1.5.

Opening Total: 45.

Weather: Partly cloudy, 38 degrees. HEAVY WINDS, 21 mph.

Week 11 NFL Pick: Cowboys 17, Redskins 14
Cowboys -1 (1 Unit) — Correct; +$100
Under 43 (2 Units) — Correct; +$200
Cowboys 14, Redskins 10

Cleveland Browns (3-6) at Buffalo Bills (5-4)
Line: Bills by 5.5. Total: 40.
Walt’s Projected Line (Before Week 10): Bills -6.
Walt’s Projected Line (After Week 10): Bills -4.5.
Monday, 8:30 ET – Buy Tickets

The Game. Edge: Bills.
Injuries: Browns: OUT: WR Joe Jurevicius (IR), OT Ryan Tucker (IR), G Lennie Friedman, DE Robaire Smith (IR), OLB Antwan Peek (IR). Bills: OUT: DE Aaron Schobel, OLB Angelo Crowell (IR), ILB John DiGiorgio (IR), CB Ashton Youboty (IR).

Before I get to the final game on the slate, here’s the Week 11 NFL Look-Alike Thread, featuring Chef (South Park), Darth Sidious and Bat Boy.

I thought this matchup looked extremely attractive when the schedule came out. The Browns, coming off a 10-6 season, were expected to improve and claim the AFC North. Meanwhile, I projected the Bills to finish 11-5 in my season previews. I looked at this contest as one that could have possibly decided which team would get a bye in the postseason.

So much for that. The Browns imploded right away, while the Bills, after beginning the year 5-1, are leaking oil after losing three straight divisional contests.

BUFFALO OFFENSE: What happened to Trent Edwards? Three weeks ago, I called him an MVP candidate. Now, I’m not so sure he’ll be able to hold on to his job at this rate. Against the Dolphins, Jets and Patriots, Edwards tossed five interceptions to just two touchdowns. He also fumbled thrice, maintained a pedestrian YPA of 5.2 at New England and averaged just 212 passing yards per contest.

Part of the problem has been pass protection. Buffalo surrendered nine sacks in the three divisional matchups. Edwards was sacked just twice at New England, but was hurried on what seemed like almost every play, which led to his two picks.

Edwards also isn’t getting any run support. The flu-stricken Marshawn Lynch averaged just 41 rushing yards in those three contests, gaining only 3.4 yards per carry. Because Buffalo played three teams that are very stout against the rush, Lynch was easily neutralized, allowing each stop unit to focus on Edwards.

Fortunately for the Bills, the Browns aren’t good against the run. In fact, they aren’t good at anything in terms of defense. I don’t think Lynch will be dominant, but he’ll at least come close to averaging four yards per carry, which will make things easier for Edwards amid a pass rush that has only 14 sacks on the year. Edwards should be able to easily locate his receivers against a pitiful secondary that embarrassed itself on Thursday night.

CLEVELAND OFFENSE: Speaking of that Thursday night contest, Brady Quinn played well. The Browns didn’t go down the field at all, but Quinn was decisive and efficient, helping the Browns put up 30 points in his first start.

Quinn was able to stand in the pocket and scan the field because Denver’s defense, quite frankly, is a joke. Buffalo’s isn’t. Thanks to Marcus Stroud, the Bills are ranked 10th against the rush, so they’ll easily take Jamal Lewis and Jerome Harrison out of Cleveland’s game plan, forcing Quinn into long-yardage situations.

Unfortunately, Buffalo’s top pass rusher, Aaron Schobel, is out yet again, so Quinn should be able to convert a good amount of those third-and-longs. It really helps that he has a pair of dynamic weapons to work with.

RECAP: I can’t endorse laying five points with a struggling team. There’s a lot of pressure on the Bills in this spot. They need to win this game, but they’re also expected to against the dysfunctional Browns.

While we’re on that subject, I think this line has been inflated by a point or a point-and-a-half because of some comments that have come out about the Browns quitting.

While the public may think Cleveland has quit, NFL players will never give up because they’re always playing for a contract. Usually when a team is accused of quitting, it bounces back with a tough effort. That doesn’t always happen, but don’t be surprised if that occurs on Monday night.

The Psychology. Edge: None.
Cleveland’s season is over and everyone on the team hates each other. The Bills are leaking oil and probably don’t believe in themselves anymore. If we’re talking about psychology, both teams need a therapist.

The Vegas. Edge: None.
Equal action.

Percentage of money on Cleveland: 53% (161,000 bets)

The Trends. Edge: Bills.

Losing Coach: Romeo Crennel is 0-3 ATS as an underdog after losing as a favorite.

Browns are 11-2 ATS after allowing 30 or more points under Romeo Crennel.

Bills are 12-2 ATS after playing the New England Patriots since 1999.

Bills are 16-8 ATS at home after Oct. 1 when favored by less than 6 points since 2002.

Bills are 22-9 ATS in November home games the previous 31 contests.

Bills are 12-2 ATS against losing teams since 2006.

Opening Line: Bills -4.5.

Opening Total: 42.5.

Weather: Snow, 25 degrees. Light wind.

Week 11 NFL Pick: Bills 27, Browns 24
Browns +5.5 (1 Unit) — Correct; +$100
Over 40 (1 Unit) — Correct; +$100
Browns 29, Bills 27

Week 11 NFL Picks – Early Games
Jets at Patriots, Ravens at Giants, Vikings at Buccaneers, Raiders at Dolphins, Saints at Chiefs, Titans at Jaguars, Texans at Colts, Bears at Packers, Eagles at Bengals, Lions at Panthers, Broncos at Falcons

Printable version of Week 11 NFL Picks (MS Word)

Prop/Teaser/Parlay Picks
A list of some of my favorite team/player prop picks this week
(Offense & defensive ROY picks to be counted whenver winners are announced.) Picks carried over on a week-to-week basis will be in black.

Teaser: Giants -1, Colts -2 (4 Units) — Correct; +$400

Live Dog: Bears +155 (2 Units) — Incorrect; -$200

Live Dog: Chiefs +200 (2 Units) — Incorrect; -$200

Live Dog: Chargers +190 (2 Units) — Incorrect; -$200

Live Dog: Browns +190 (2 Units) — Correct; +$380

Pyschology Parlay: Ravens +7, Raiders +10.5, Jaguars +3, Texans +8, Lions +14, Eagles -9 (.5 Units to win 23.6) — Incorrect; -$50

Odds to Win Super Bowl XLIII: Dallas +475 (1 Unit)

Odds to Win Super Bowl XLIII: Indianapolis +1050 (1 Unit)

NY Giants 9 Wins: Over +115 (3 Units)

Pittsburgh 9 Wins: Over +115 (3 Units)

Chicago 8 Wins: Under -170 (3 Units)

Kansas City 6 Wins: Under -110 (4 Units)

San Diego 10.5 Wins: Under +150 (3 Units)

San Francisco 6.5 Wins: Under -130 (3 Units)

St. Louis 6.5 Wins: Under -115 (3 Units)

Odds to win the 2008-2009 NFL Offensive Rookie of the Year Award: DeSean Jackson 15/1 (1 Unit)

Defensive Rookie of the Year: Keith Rivers 8/1 (1 Unit)

Defensive Rookie of the Year: Curtis Lofton 14/1 (1 Unit)

How many Rushing Yards will Larry Johnson have in the 2008 Season? Under 1,275 -145 (3 Units)

How many Receiving Yards will Calvin Johnson have in the 2008 Season? Over 1,040 -105 (5 Units)

How many Receiving Touchdowns will Calvin Johnson have in the 2008 Season? Over 7 -115 (5 Units)

2009 NFL Mock Draft

2010 NFL Mock Draft

2009 NFL Mock Draft Database

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2002 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 41-49-2 (45.6%)
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2016 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 42-35-3, 54.5% (+$475)
2017 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 32-40-3, 43.8% (-$2,395)
2018 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 52-41-2, 55.9% (+$2,670)
2019 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 44-36-2, 55.0% (+$655)
2020 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 47-43-3, 52.2% (-$1,965)
2021 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 50-50, 50.0% (-$1,570)
2022 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 56-44-2, 56.0% (+$1,860)

2002 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 11-12 (47.8%)
2003 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 16-13-1 (55.2%)
2004 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 18-11 (62.1%)
2005 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 25-22-1 (53.2%)
2006 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 21-29-1 (42.0%)
2007 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 35-30-2, 53.8% (+$420)
2008 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 39-26-2, 60.0% (+$4,055)
2009 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 29-26, 52.7% (+$330)
2010 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 32-22, 59.3% (+$4,790)
2011 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 14-14, 50.0% (-$1,260)
2012 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 14-21, 40.0% (-$3,650)
2013 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 17-9-3, 65.4% (+$2,970)
2015 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 17-16-2, 51.5% (-$1,120)
2016 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 21-22-5, 48.8% (-$1,465)
2017 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 20-22-1, 47.6% (-$1,595)
2018 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 27-32-1, 45.8% (-$4,735)
2019 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 37-27-2, 57.8% (+$2,185)
2020 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 37-22-1, 62.7% (+$5,515)
2021 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 32-32-1, 50.0% (-$725)
2022 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 41-30-1, 57.8% (+$3,725)

2001 Season Over-Under: 3-2 (60.0%)
2002 Season Over-Under: 121-91-3 (57.1%)
2003 Season Over-Under: 126-132-2 (48.8%)
2004 Season Over-Under: 139-124-4 (52.9%)
2005 Season Over-Under: 117-145-4 (44.7%)
2006 Season Over-Under: 129-132-5 (49.4%)
2007 Season Over-Under: 136-145-3, 48.4% (-$1,900)
2008 Season Over-Under: 137-125-6, 52.3% (+$860)
2009 Season Over-Under: 128-135-4, 48.7% (-$3,195)
2010 Season Over-Under: 128-135-5, 48.7% (-$5)
2011 Season Over-Under: 131-131-5, 50.0% (+$135)
2012 Season Over-Under: 125-121-5, 50.8% (+$30)
2013 Season Over-Under: 132-130-5, 50.4% (-$340)
2015 Season Over-Under: 143-119-5, 54.6% ($0)
2016 Season Over-Under: 123-141-1, 46.6% (+$95)
2017 Season Over-Under: 136-139-2, 49.5% (+$640)
2018 Season Over-Under: 118-128-3, 48.0% (-$225)
2019 Season Over-Under: 126-133-4, 48.6% (-$50)
2020 Season Over-Under: 141-122-6, 53.6% ($0)
2021 Season Over-Under: 132-151-3, 46.6% ($0)
2022 Season Over-Under: 133-149-2, 47.2% (-$225)

2007 Season Prop/ML/Teaser/Parlay Picks: +$1,035
2008 Season Prop/ML/Teaser/Parlay Picks: +$1,775
2009 Season Prop/ML/Teaser/Parlay Picks: +$865
2010 Season Prop/ML/Teaser/Parlay Picks: -$200
2011 Season Prop/ML/Teaser/Parlay Picks: +$590
2012 Season Prop/ML/Teaser/Parlay Picks: -$1,685
2013 Season Prop/ML/Teaser/Parlay Picks: +$2,245
2015 Season Prop/ML/Teaser/Parlay Picks: -$855
2016 Season Prop/ML/Teaser/Parlay Picks: -$275
2017 Season Prop/ML/Teaser/Parlay Picks: -$510
2018 Season Prop/ML/Teaser/Parlay Picks: +$1,495
2019 Season Prop/ML/Teaser/Parlay Picks: -$1,715
2020 Season Prop/ML/Teaser/Parlay Picks: +$4,975
2021 Season Prop/ML/Teaser/Parlay Picks: +$3,455
2022 Season Prop/ML/Teaser/Parlay Picks: +$5,720

2006 NFL Picks of the Month: 3-3 (50%)
2007 NFL Picks of the Month: 3-3, 50.0% (-$400)
2008 NFL Picks of the Month: 6-1, 85.7% (+$3,720)
2009 NFL Picks of the Month: 3-2, 60.0% (+$640)
2010 NFL Picks of the Month: 2-4, 33.3% (-$1,810)
2011 NFL Picks of the Month: 5-2, 71.4% (+$1,870)
2012 NFL Picks of the Month: 3-2, 60.0% (+$560)
2013 NFL Picks of the Month: 6-0, 100% (+$3,900)
2014 NFL Picks of the Month: 2-4, 33.3% (-$1,350)
2015 NFL Picks of the Month: 3-3, 50.0% (-$100)
2016 NFL Picks of the Month: 5-1, 83.3% (+$2,780)
2017 NFL Picks of the Month: 4-2, 66.7% (+$1,040)
2018 NFL Picks of the Month: 4-3, 57.1% (-$640)
2019 NFL Picks of the Month: 3-3-1, 50.0% (-$625)
2020 NFL Picks of the Month: 3-2, 60.0% (+$665)
2021 NFL Picks of the Month: 2-3, 40.0% (-$920)
2022 NFL Picks of the Month: 3-4, 42.9% (-$1,615)

Career NFL Picks Against The Spread: 3,420-3,152-195, 52.1% (+$21,170)
Career 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 1,106-983-56 (52.9%)
Career 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 549-485-25 (53.1%)
Career Over-Under: 2,853-2,829-74 (50.3%)
Career Second-Half NFL Picks: 23-16-1 (59.0%)
Career NFL Picks of the Month: 46-34-1 (57.5t%)

My Team-by-Team ATS Record
This section shows how well I do when picking each team this year. The purpose is to see how well I read each team. Pushes are not displayed. Winning/losing streak in parentheses.

Cowboys: 8-9	Bears: 11-4	Bucs: 6-11	49ers: 10-7
Eagles: 7-7	Lions: 9-8	Falcons: 8-9	Cardinals: 8-9
Giants: 7-9	Packers: 5-12	Panthers: 8-9	Rams: 8-9
Redskins: 14-3	Vikings: 6-9	Saints: 10-7	Seahawks: 7-9

Bills: 9-7	Bengals: 12-5	Colts: 7-10	Broncos: 9-6
Dolphins: 6-11	Browns: 11-5	Jaguars: 13-4	Chargers: 8-9
Jets: 8-9	Ravens: 11-6	Texans: 5-12	Chiefs: 5-10
Patriots: 7-9	Steelers: 11-6	Titans: 9-8	Raiders: 6-9

Divisional: 50-35 (2011-22: 558-526)	2x Game Edge: 36-24 (2011-22: 363-361)	2x Motivation Edge: 32-36 (2011-22: 478-405)	2x Spread Edge: 41-40 (2011-22: 197-168)
2x Vegas Edge: 41-38 (2011-22: 407-406)	2x Trend Edge: 15-13 (2011-22: 306-279)	Double Edge: 17-13 (2011-22: 190-172)	Triple Edge: 1-1 (2011-22: 32-36)

2023 NFL Draft Re-Grades

2024 NFL Draft Second-Day Values: Offense

NBA Picks Against the Spread

2024 NFL Draft Goals

2024 NFL Draft Potential Busts

NFL Free Agent Signing Grades – Latest Signing Grades for 2024 NFL Free Agency

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