NFL Picks Against the Spread: Week 12, 2013

NFL Picks (Preseason 2013): 10-6 (+$720)
NFL Picks (Week 1, 2013): 4-11-1 (-$1,290)
NFL Picks (Week 2, 2013): 6-10 (+$130)
NFL Picks (Week 3, 2013): 9-6-1 (+$20)
NFL Picks (Week 4, 2013): 11-4 (+$870)
NFL Picks (Week 5, 2013): 8-6 (+$1,060)
NFL Picks (Week 6, 2013): 4-11 (-$420)
NFL Picks (Week 7, 2013): 6-9 (-$730)
NFL Picks (Week 8, 2013): 8-5 (+$760)
NFL Picks (Week 9, 2013): 5-8 (-$280)
NFL Picks (Week 10, 2013): 9-4-1 (-$110)
NFL Picks (Week 11, 2013): 5-7-3 (-$480)

NFL Picks (2013): 85-87-5 (+$250)
NFL Picks (2012): 130-145-8 (-$5,760)
NFL Picks (2011): 137-133-12 (-$1,925)
NFL Picks (2010): 144-131-8 (+$6,080)
NFL Picks (2009): 151-124-9 (+$3,370)
NFL Picks (2008): 136-125-6 (+$4,330)
If you don’t quite understand the line, total or anything else, go to my Sports Betting FAQ.

Vegas betting action updated Nov. 25, 6:10 p.m. ET. Follow @walterfootball for updates.

Go to Week 12 NFL Picks – Late Games

New Orleans Saints (8-2) at Atlanta Falcons (2-8)
Line: Saints by 7.5. Total: 53.
Las Vegas Hilton Advance Point Spread: Saints -6.5.
Walt’s Calculated Line (After Week 11): Saints -9.
Thursday, Nov. 21, 8:25 ET
Discuss Week 12 Games, Talk Trash

The Game. Edge: Saints.

WEEK 11 RECAP: I pretty much broke even on Sunday, save for the vig, so the fate of my Week 11 depended on the Monday night game. I’ll discuss the Patriots-Panthers disaster in my next capsule.

I posted three four-unit picks this week. The first pushed because the stupid Colts allowed a quick touchdown to the Titans even though they were in prevent. Awesome. The second lost because Robert Griffin threw that dumb interception in the end zone. In truth though, I was pretty lucky that the Redskins even had a chance at a cover. They were terrible for three quarters.

This result really confused me. I’ve had a couple of people suggest to me that the officials made sure the Eagles won – Trent Williams told the media afterward that one of the refs cursed at him – but I’m not so sure. I’m all about conspiracy theories, but Washington’s defense was that bad. The Eagles, meanwhile, have inexplicably improved on the defensive side of the ball. I don’t get how this happened.

There were also a couple of B.S. covers/pushes in Week 11 that didn’t affect my bankroll:

Ravens +3 over Bears – Baltimore led 10-0 before there was a 2-hour delay. The Ravens had all of the momentum in that game, but it vanished when play resumed. Ray Rice even complained about this afterward. I feel like Baltimore was the right side and should have covered.

49ers +3 over Saints – At least this is validation that the 49ers probably were the right side last week versus Carolina. San Francisco is just a different team with Vernon Davis on the field. The 49ers in position to win, but a Frank Gore drop and a horrible roughing-the-passer penalty made this a push. Again, I didn’t have any units on the 49ers; I just think it’s significant to keep in mind what really should’ve happened for handicapping purposes going forward.

Browns +6 over Bengals – The sharps were on Cleveland. They were happy when the Browns went up 13-0, but then the team self-destructed. The Bengals won in a blowout, but it’s important to note that Cincinnati did not outplay Cleveland; the teams were about even outside of the fluky touchdowns. This is important because we have to remember that the Bengals are one of the most overrated teams in the NFL. Hopefully we’ll be able to fade them frequently after their bye.

At any rate, I’ve vowed to avoid the following poisonous teams that were responsible for many of my two- and three-unit losses:

Rams
Buccaneers
Jaguars
~~Giants~~
Vikings
Falcons
Titans

Excluding the Buccaneers and Falcons, who played each other, these teams went 1-2-1 against the spread in Week 11. The lone victor was the Giants, and I’m ready to scratch them of this list. Their defense has improved, and Eli Manning is no longer making dumb mistakes.

Meanwhile, my Las Vegas Hilton Supercontest partner Matvei and I also talked about some situations that almost always win:

Seahawks at home
Saints at home
Packers at home (needs Aaron Rodgers)
Jim Harbaugh anywhere (unless he’s playing another top team, i.e. Colts or Seahawks)
Tom Brady off a loss as long as he’s not favored by a lot

Those situations went 5-0 against the spread in Week 8, but just 2-2 ATS since. The Seahawks covered in this situation against the poisonous Vikings on Sunday.

Also, we’ve discussed something called the Bermuda Triangle. This originated with the Cardinals, who inexplicably cover at home against all non-elite teams. Very weird things happen in these games that can’t be explained. Thus, Bermuda Triangle. Here are Bermuda Triangle situations:

Bet the Cardinals at home as a dog or small favorite unless they’re playing an elite team.
Fade the Ravens as a road favorite.
Fade the Steelers as a big home favorite or road favorite.
Fade the Eagles at home.
Fade the Cowboys as a very large home favorite.

The Eagles somehow covered at home. Again, I don’t get what happened because the Redskins seemed like the right side. Meanwhile, Buffalo at home as to be considered a Bermuda Triangle situation. Take a look at what they’ve done as hosts this year:

Lost to the Patriots by two points
Beat the Panthers and Ravens
Almost beat the Bengals and Chiefs with backup quarterbacks
Destroyed the Jets as underdogs

One last thing: I discussed last week that teams are good fades if they have key starters come back prior to their designated return date. Both Jay Cutler and E.J. Manuel were expected to be out much longer, yet they rejoined their team early in Week 10. As a result, both quarterbacks were ineffective, prompting spread losses for each of their teams.

Aaron Rodgers, who was initially ruled out until Week 14, hinted that he could play this upcoming Sunday versus Minnesota. That would quality as this situation, but then again, the Vikings are unbettable because they’re a poisonous team.

Week 12 NFL Picks will be posted all day Wednesday. Follow me @walterfootball for updates.

NEW ORLEANS OFFENSE: If you don’t think the Saints can do whatever they want with Atlanta’s defense this week, you’re either brain-dead, or you simply haven’t been watching football this year. The Falcons couldn’t stop the combination of Mike Glennon and Bobby Rainey this past Sunday. Let that sink in for a second, and now imagine them having to deal with Drew Brees, Jimmy Graham and Marques Colston.

The one thing going against the Saints is that they may not have Darren Sproles at full strength (or at all). This shouldn’t be a problem though, as Atlanta’s “stop” unit can’t do anything right. The Falcons can’t rush the passer, contain the run or put the clamps on aerial attacks. They’re completely useless.

ATLANTA OFFENSE: It’s only better by default on this side of the ball for the Falcons. However, Matt Ryan hasn’t looked like a good quarterback in about a month, throwing nine interceptions in his previous four games. Sure, Ryan’s supporting cast is crap, but we’ve seen great quarterbacks overcome injuries and carry bad teams before. Tom Brady went to the Super Bowl with Troy Brown and David Patten as his starting receivers, for crying out loud. Ryan, meanwhile, has regressed terribly.

A big problem is the offensive line, a unit that has had major issues trying to block for Ryan. That doesn’t bode well for him in this matchup, as Rob Ryan’s group brings a ton of pressure on the quarterback. With lots of pressure in his face, Ryan won’t be able to rely on his favorite safety valve; Tony Gonzalez is dealing with a toe injury and hasn’t practiced all week. He could still suit up, but he won’t be nearly as effective as usual.

The way to beat New Orleans’ is defense is to run right at them; the Saints rank 28th against the rush in terms of YPC (4.65). The Falcons, however, won’t be able to exploit this liability because Steven Jackson is pretty much a rotting corpse.

RECAP: If you want to bet on the Saints – everyone is on them this week – keep in mind that they’ll be more focused on their impending matchup against the Seahawks next Monday. You won’t be getting them at their best. Having said that, New Orleans at 75 percent will be able to cover this game because Atlanta is just that awful.

Again, Week 12 NFL Picks will be posted all day. I’ll announce via Twitter @walterfootball when each selection is posted.

FINAL THOUGHTS: The sharps are all over the Falcons. If you like following the sharps, take the home underdog. I just can’t stomach betting money on such a terrible team. I feel like the mindset is that the Saints will look past Atlanta for their Monday night matchup at Seattle, but these teams hate each other. New Orleans would love to embarrass the Falcons. I’m sticking with the road favorite.

The Psychology. Edge: Falcons.

Fresh off a win against the 49ers, the Saints have the Seahawks and Panthers coming up after this game.

The Vegas. Edge: Falcons.

Where do you think the public is going with this game?

Percentage of money on New Orleans: 82% (67,000 bets)

The Trends. Edge: None.

History: Saints have won 10 of the last 13 meetings.

Drew Brees is 36-22 ATS off back-to-back wins.

Matt Ryan is 26-17 ATS at home.

Falcons are 16-4 ATS following a loss of 6+ in the previous 20 instances.

Opening Line: Saints -7.

Opening Total: 52.5.

Weather: Dome.

Week 12 NFL Pick: Saints 27, Falcons 14
Saints -7.5 (0 Units) — Incorrect; $0
Under 53 (0 Units) — Correct; $0
Saints 17, Falcons 13

Tampa Bay Buccaneers (2-8) at Detroit Lions (6-4)
Line: Lions by 8. Total: 48.5.
Las Vegas Hilton Advance Point Spread: Lions -10.
Walt’s Calculated Line (After Week 11): Lions -5.5.
Sunday, Nov. 24, 1:00 ET
Discuss Week 12 Games, Talk Trash

The Game. Edge: Lions.

VEGAS RECAP: The sportsbooks had stolen money from the public in eight of 10 weekends heading into Week 11. There were eight highly bet games, and the books claimed five of them, as the Bills, Steelers, Raiders, Dolphins and Panthers won money for the house. The public won with the Colts (only those who had -2.5), Cardinals and Seahawks.

Vegas continued to destroy the public, culminating with that joke of a Monday night game. Considering how much money the sportsbooks were going to lose had the Patriots scored, it’s very easy to think the game was fixed. The back judge threw the flag, and Clete Blakeman picked it up and ran off the field without any explanation. That’s because he had none. He knew New England should’ve had the ball on Carolina’s 1-yard line, but he couldn’t allow that to happen.

I suppose I only have myself to blame. It’s foolish to wager on such a heavily bet team on Sunday Night Football and Monday Night Football, since those are the two chaser games, where people try to win back their losses. Shenanigans are bound to happen, hence Carolina’s 24-20 victory.

I’m going to stop myself from doing this. No more huge bets on these sorts of situations. In fact, I’ll call it the Clete Blakeman Rule. Hey, at least I’m offering you an explanation.

I’ll be updating the Vegas betting action all week, as usual. I’ll notify you of any updates @walterfootball.

DETROIT OFFENSE: The Steelers made the mistake of covering Calvin Johnson one-on-one last week. Ike Taylor tried as best as he could, but he failed miserably. As a result, Megatron was on pace to set an NFL single-game record for receiving yardage. Pittsburgh, learning its lesson, made the proper adjustments at halftime, which is one of the reasons why Matthew Stafford didn’t complete a pass in the fourth quarter.

The Buccaneers will attempt to employ the same strategy as the Steelers, but they’re bound to have more success because Darrelle Revis is so much better than Taylor. It’s impossible to shut down Megatron, but if anyone can at least slow him a bit, it’s Revis, who has played lights out ever since he was asked to go back to man coverage. I have no idea what Tampa was thinking with that dreadful zone.

Stafford, who will enjoy a clean pocket because his offensive line has been outstanding this season, will have to look elsewhere at times. That’s why it’s important for the Lions to get Reggie Bush going. Bush was benched for fumbling and running poorly against the Steelers. The Buccaneers are just about as good against the rush as Pittsburgh is, but Bush should be able to rebound because he won’t be playing on a muddy surface again; Bush is so much more potent on Detroit’s fast track.

TAMPA BAY OFFENSE: Speaking of strong rushing attacks, how about Bobby Rainey? Waived by two teams this season, Rainey exploded for 163 rushing yards and a pair of touchdowns on 30 carries against the Falcons. It was awesome to see Rainey do that, but it’s highly doubtful that he’ll be able to duplicate that performance, or even come close. Atlanta, after all, has a putrid defense ranked 31st against the run in terms of YPC (4.79). Detroit, meanwhile, is so much better at stopping ground attacks (6th, 3.62).

What the Lions don’t do well on this side of the ball is cover receivers. Antonio Brown had a huge game Sunday, so there’s no reason why Vincent Jackson won’t be able to pick up where he left off. Brown is very talented, but Jackson is even better, so it’s difficult to imagine Detroit having any sort of success covering him.

The Lions will have to put lots of pressure on Mike Glennon to prevent Jackson from torching them repeatedly. They have the front line to do it, though Ndamukong Suh was just stymied by Pittsburgh’s David DeCastro. He figures to have more success this week against a Tampa interior that isn’t very good. Things might be different if Carl Nicks were on the field, but alas, The Walking Bucs.

RECAP: Matvei made a good point in saying this contest reminds him of the Cowboys-Vikings tilt back in Week 9. Dallas was favored by too much considering that it had a major look-ahead game on the horizon (at Saints). The Lions will definitely have one eye on Week 13 because they host the Packers on Thanksgiving. Favorites have done terribly prior to playing on Thursday night, and as you can see below, Detroit has a dubious track record prior to Turkey Day.

The old me would’ve wagered 2-3 units on the Buccaneers, but I’m not going to do that. Bad things happen when betting on bad teams, so I could see Tampa being the right side, wrong result. I’m still taking the Bucs to cover though.

FINAL THOUGHTS: I still think the Buccaneers are the right side. This spread is just way too high considering A) The Lions have a divisional game in four days and B) Tampa is playing with so much more confidence now.

The Psychology. Edge: Buccaneers.

The Lions have the Packers in four days.

The Vegas. Edge: None.
Equal action.

Percentage of money on Detroit: 57% (50,000 bets)

The Trends. Edge: Buccaneers.

Lions are 10-21 ATS against losing teams the previous 31 instances.

Lions are 1-7 ATS before their Thanksgiving game since 2005.

Opening Line: Lions -9.5.

Opening Total: 45.5.

Weather: Dome.

Week 12 NFL Pick: Lions 29, Buccaneers 23
Buccaneers +8 (0 Units) — Correct; $0
Over 48.5 (0 Units) — Incorrect; $0
Buccaneers 24, Lions 21

Jacksonville Jaguars (1-9) at Houston Texans (2-8)
Line: Texans by 10. Total: 44.
Las Vegas Hilton Advance Point Spread: Texans -10.
Walt’s Calculated Line (After Week 11): Texans -9.
Sunday, Nov. 24, 1:00 ET
Discuss Week 12 Games, Talk Trash

The Game. Edge: Texans.

HATE MAIL: Another week, another stack of hate mails. These are from the comment boards:

Way To Go THis Week Walter. You Hit On 2 Of Your Locks. Missed ON The Top 2. You Also Cost Me The Chance At Like 50K. Safe To SaY I Wont Be Holding Your Opinion In Such High Regard Next Season.

Why is every word capitalized? And why’d you hold my opinion in such high regard in the first place?

when are you gonna learn the lions are legit. Stop the hate Walt, and stop losing your $ betting against them esp against bad teams like the steelers… 31-20 Lions

I was 5-4 with Lions picks heading into the weekend. If I’m hating with a team I’m 5-4 with, just imagine what I’m like with a team I can’t predict correctly.

Love reading the website Walt but holy hell you are the biggest Patriots homer on the internet.

Ah yes, born and raised in Philadelphia, I am a natural Patriots’ homer. Sorry, I just can’t help myself!

You’re distain for certain teams really clouds your judgement. You’re taking the red skins over the Eagles, yet the eagles are clearly playing better right now, and the red skins have been bad pretty much all year. You really need to start leaving your bias at the door when you make picks, you look like an assclown as the eagles are blowing the skins out the water. You deserve to lose money for that.

I don’t need an incorrect four-unit pick to look like an assclown. It’s been my goal to look like an assclown all year, so mission accomplish as far as I’m concerned. Unfortunately, you look like an assclown as well with “you’re” grammar.

Why do you keep saying ‘lay a unit’ with the team you’re betting on? Gambling 101 for you…When you place a bet on a team, that’s called ‘backing or back’. Laying is what a sportsbook does, as in taking bets on a team. To ‘lay’ a bet means to take a bet on a side, as in you are backing it to lose. Normal bettors can lay bets (back a team to lose) on exchange sites such as Betfair.

Mmmmblehblehblehbleh.

HOUSTON OFFENSE: I’m still trying to figure out what the Texans were thinking by A) benching Case Keenum and B) using Matt Schaub as the substitute. Keenum hadn’t been playing all that well, but it’s not like he was terrible or anything. And why subject Schaub to more heckling from the crazy fans who actually visited his house and threatened his family? It was such a dumb move on both counts.

Keenum will be starting again, and you have to like his chances of bouncing back. The Jaguars have a disgraceful defense comprised of a defensive line that can’t rush the passer, a secondary that can’t cover and linebackers who don’t know what’s going on. Andre Johnson and DeAndre Hopkins should have no problem getting open, and Keenum, playing behind a clean pocket, will be able to deliver the football to them.

The one area where the Jaguars have improved defensively is their play against the run. They’ve limited their previous two opponents to a combined 69 rushing yards, as Chris Johnson and Andre Ellington were both stymied. Those expecting a big game out of Ben Tate could walk away disappointed, but as the Cardinals proved last week, you don’t need a strong rushing attack to beat the Jaguars because they’re that bad against the pass.

JACKSONVILLE OFFENSE: As terrible as the Jaguars’ defense is, the scoring attack is even worse. It had some semblance of life when Justin Blackmon returned from suspension, but the stud wideout is gone again. That just leaves Cecil Shorts, who spent his time complaining to the media about how his team isn’t using him enough. Shorts was just smothered by Patrick Peterson, so he’ll have an opportunity to rebound against the Texans. Johnathan Joseph is good, but he’s no Patrick Peterson.

Luckily, the Texans won’t have to worry about much else. Maurice Jones-Drew has shown very little burst coming off his brutal leg injury and hasn’t averaged more than 4.1 yards per carry in any game this season. Meanwhile, Jacksonville has permitted more sacks than all but five teams this year, so J.J. Watt and company should have their way with the Jaguar front line.

RECAP: Everyone’s reaction is the same: “Texans by 10!? That’s too high!” Is it? Based on what? Houston is 2-8, and while everyone is concentrating on last week’s loss to Oakland, they’ve quickly forgotten that the Texans nearly beat the Cardinals and Colts in their previous two games. They also hung around with the Chiefs in Kansas City despite the fact that Keenum was making his first start. The Texans are much better than their record indicates, but because the general public has a short memory, Jacksonville is being bet heavily.

I’m not going to place any units on the Texans because they could easily implode again, but I do think they’re the right side. The Jaguars’ nine defeats have all been by double digits. They’re on pace to eclipse the 0-16 Lions and 0-14 Buccaneers’ 10 double-digit losses, so if they do that, they could easily be seen as the worst team in NFL history despite their one victory.

FINAL THOUGHTS: I never thought I’d see the day that the public would pound the Jaguars. Crazy. The Texans are the right side, but I don’t feel like betting on them as a double-digit favorite.

SUNDAY MORNING: The line just moved up to -10.5. Those are the sharps moving the spread in Houston’s favor. There could be some buy-back at Jacksonville +10.5 though, so I wouldn’t read too much into it.

The Psychology. Edge: None.
No edge found.

The Vegas. Edge: Texans.
The Jaguars are a public dog.

Percentage of money on Jacksonville: 62% (18,000 bets)

The Trends. Edge: None.

History: Texans have won the last 5 meetings.

Opening Line: Texans -10.

Opening Total: 42.

Weather: Dome.

Week 12 NFL Pick: Texans 23, Jaguars 10
Texans -10 (0 Units) — Incorrect; $0
Under 44 (0 Units) — Correct; $0
Jaguars 13, Texans 6

Minnesota Vikings (2-8) at Green Bay Packers (5-5)
Line: Packers by 5. Total: 44.5.
Las Vegas Hilton Advance Point Spread: No Line (Rodgers).
Walt’s Calculated Line (After Week 11): Packers -3.
Sunday, Nov. 24, 1:00 ET
Discuss Week 12 Games, Talk Trash

The Game. Edge: None.

If you haven’t seen this yet, we have a new NFL Pick Em Contest on this Web site. It’s free entry, and there are monthly and seasonal prizes: $350 for the year, and $100 for each month. There’s no reason not to enter. Click the link to register!

By the way, you can check out the Pick Em Leaderboard here.

GREEN BAY OFFENSE: There was some optimism that Aaron Rodgers would be able to play in this contest, but a report came out Tuesday that Rodgers could be at further injury risk if he came back this week. With that in mind, it’s all but certain that Scott Tolzien will get the nod once more.

Tolzien isn’t a bad quarterback. He takes decent shots downfield, which is something Minnesota doesn’t want to hear. The Vikings have a dreadful, banged-up secondary that hasn’t been able to get off the field on third downs this year. They’ve surrendered a YPA of 8.39 in the past four games, which is seventh-worst in the NFL over that span. It doesn’t help that their pass rush is inconsistent; only eight teams have fewer sacks than Minnesota this season.

The one thing the Vikings can do well defensively is stop the run. Marshawn Lynch scored thrice this past Sunday, but he was limited to just 54 yards and 17 carries. Minnesota is seventh against the rush in terms of YPC (3.73), so Eddie Lacy may once again struggle to find running lanes. Things would be different if the Vikings were so fearful of Rodgers that they’d just have to forget Lacy like they did in their first matchup, but they’ll be able to focus completely on the rookie runner, forcing Tolzien to beat them downfield. The Packers will still tally points, but not consistently.

MINNESOTA OFFENSE: The Vikings’ scoring attack is pretty much in the same spot as the Packers. They have an unfavorable quarterbacking situation paired with a strong rushing attack facing a defense that is completely helpless versus the pass. The one difference, however, is that Green Bay isn’t dominant against ground attacks.

Adrian Peterson wasn’t able to do anything in the Week 8 matchup between these two teams because his squad was way down early on. Peterson gained 60 rushing yards on just 13 carries. He’ll definitely have more of an opportunity this Sunday because Tolzien won’t be scoring on every possession like Rodgers did a month ago. Peterson will gash a Green Bay unit that is just two weeks removed from surrendering 166 yards on the ground to the Eagles.

This will greatly help whomever is quarterbacking the Vikings; Leslie Frazier hasn’t announced whom he’s going with this Sunday. Christian Ponder is capable of playing well at times, as we saw versus the Redskins. The Packers have similar coverage issues as Washington, so Ponder should be able to perform well. He gives them the best chance to win, so the Vikings should go with Josh Freeman, who sucks. Freeman will ensure defeat, giving Minnesota better position in the 2014 NFL Draft.

RECAP: If Ponder starts, I’m picking Minnesota. If it’s Freeman, go Green Bay. The reason I like the Vikings with Ponder is because the Packers will be focused a bit on their impending Thanksgiving contest at Detroit. I also like that Minnesota is playing its second-consecutive road game following a loss, which happens to be a high-covering situation.

FINAL THOUGHTS: I’m bumping this up to one unit. I thought about it, and Scott Tolzien is favored by 4.5 points. Let that sink in.

The Psychology. Edge: None.
No edge found.

The Vegas. Edge: None.
Equal action.

Percentage of money on Green Bay: 54% (30,000 bets)

The Trends. Edge: TBA.

History: Packers have won 7 of the last 8 meetings.

Vikings are 9-22 ATS outdoors since 2008.

Packers are 22-8 ATS at home since 2010.

Aaron Rodgers is 47-27 ATS since 2009 (8-4 ATS as a favorite of 12+). ???

Opening Line: Packers -5.

Opening Total: 45.

Weather: .

Week 12 NFL Pick: Packers 26, Vikings 24
Vikings +5 (1 Unit) — Correct; +$100
Over 44.5 (0 Units) — Correct; $0
Packers 26, Vikings 26

San Diego Chargers (4-6) at Kansas City Chiefs (9-1)
Line: Chiefs by 4.5. Total: 42.5.
Las Vegas Hilton Advance Point Spread: Chiefs -4.5.
Walt’s Calculated Line (After Week 11): Chiefs -2.
Sunday, Nov. 24, 1:00 ET
Discuss Week 12 Games, Talk Trash

The Game. Edge: None.

I wouldn’t say my weekly random NFL notes cluttered these picks pages, so I’ll keep them here. What I’m also going to do is store all of them in a Random NFL Notes section so that you can go back and read previous entries in the future.

Some random NFL notes I can’t put anywhere else:

1. If you haven’t seen my Pro Bowl Picks, click the link. I’ve received some complaints about Tony Romo not making the team, but Romo has a career-low YPA, so that’s why I chose Cam Newton over him.

2. There’s so much talk about the Redskins changing their team name or logo. Here are some ideas for new logos for every team. Mark P. sent me a link showing what the NFL logos would look like if they were European soccer badges.

Meanwhile, here’s a link of NFL logos transformed into Pokemon characters that I found on Twitter (@walterfootball).

3. I’d be remiss if I didn’t discuss the “marquee game” in the NFL, Kansas City’s matchup against the Broncos. I picked the Chiefs to cover, but I was secretly happy that they lost by double digits because it validated my stance on never having them above No. 7 in my NFL Power Rankings.

I also have to take umbrage with the assertion that this was such a big game. I quoted “marquee game” earlier because that’s what multiple NFL TV analysts called it. I understand that it had major playoff implications in terms of seeding, but how much of a “marquee game” could it be if the Chiefs and Broncos play again in two weeks? I just don’t understand why some of the divisional matchups are cluttered like this. The same thing happened last year with Houston and Indianapolis, and as well as some other divisional clashes.

I don’t ever remember it being like this. Why did Roger Goodell implement this? Why is he trying to ruin football? Divisional matchups should be more spread out. I don’t think should be able to play each other within four weeks.

KANSAS CITY OFFENSE: Sunday night was a perfect example of why I’ve never had the Chiefs above No. 7 in my NFL Power Rankings. Alex Smith just can’t beat elite opponents because he’s so limited. Kansas City’s defense held Peyton Manning to 27 points – a very low total for Denver’s offense – yet Smith couldn’t muster more than 17. He’s a sub-par talent being coached up to play above average, but superior competition will expose him, just as the 2011 Giants did when they limited him to just one third-down conversion in the NFC Championship.

Having said that, Smith isn’t exactly going against superior competition in this matchup – at least on this side of the ball. The Chargers have a horrific defense that features a secondary ranked 30th against the pass in terms of YPA (8.49). San Diego has allowed every quarterback it has faced to look like a Pro Bowler, so if Smith can’t get it done against this stop unit, he’ll have zero chance of advancing Kansas City deep into the playoffs.

Smith will do the usual – throw short passes to Jamaal Charles, Dexter McCluster and Donnie Avery, and they’ll do all of the work for him. Speaking of Charles, he’ll also have success on the ground because the Chargers are only slightly better at stopping the run (29th, 4.68 YPC).

SAN DIEGO OFFENSE: One of the reasons I picked against the Chargers last week was because they were missing King Dunlap. Those who watched Dunlap in Philadelphia will roll their eyes, but he has been a major factor in Philip Rivers’ resurgence this year. Dunlap has protected Rivers’ blind side extremely well, so having him out of the lineup with a neck injury and/or concussion forced rookie D.J. Fluker to the blind side and Jeromey Clary to kick outside to right tackle. The results, as predicted, were disastrous, as neither lineman performed well.

Dunlap should be back this week, and if so, Rivers will have a good chance of surviving the onslaught that Tamba Hali and Justin Houston bring. After all, Hali was stymied Sunday night by a backup left tackle, so Dunlap figures to block him pretty well. If that’s the case, Rivers will have time in the pocket to exploit the same mismatches that Peyton Manning targeted in his victory.

The Chargers will also be able to take pressure off Rivers by running the ball effectively. As heralded as Kansas City’s defense is, the team can’t really stop the run all that well. It’s actually surprising to see the Chiefs rank 25th against the rush in terms of YPC (4.29) despite their extremely easy schedule. Ryan Mathews, who looks like a completely new back this year, will pick up where he left off against the Dolphins; he gained 127 yards on just 19 carries in Sunday’s loss to Miami.

RECAP: I’ve gone with all zero-unit picks thus far, but don’t worry – this is a big play.

I love the Chargers in this spot. These teams are about even despite their records. I have them just five spots apart in my NFL Power Rankings. The public is pounding Kansas City because it thinks this spread is too low, when it’s actually really a bit high.

This is a terrible spot for the Chiefs. They’re coming off an emotional loss to the Broncos and have to prepare for Denver again next week. That game will be for the AFC West title, so it’s obviously much more significant than this contest. Meanwhile, this is a must-win for the Chargers. If they lose, they’ll be two back of the sixth seed with just five games to go.

FINAL THOUGHTS: The Chargers are still one of my top plays of the week. They’re still available for +4.5 at Bovada and +4 at other books, so I recommend jumping on that.

The Psychology. Edge: Chargers.

The Chiefs just lost the biggest game of the year, and they have Denver again next week. The Chargers, meanwhile, have to win this game.

The Vegas. Edge: Chargers.

People expect the Chiefs to bounce back.

Percentage of money on Kansas City: 73% (45,000 bets)

The Trends. Edge: None.

History: Home Team has won 22 of the last 30 meetings (Chargers have won 9 of the last 11).

Andy Reid is 3-9 ATS two weeks after the bye.

Opening Line: Chiefs -4.5.

Opening Total: 41.5.

Weather: .

Week 12 NFL Pick: Chiefs 17, Chargers 16
Chargers +4.5 (4 Units) — Correct; +$400
Under 42.5 (0 Units) — Incorrect; $0
Chargers 41, Chiefs 38

Carolina Panthers (7-3) at Miami Dolphins (5-5)
Line: Panthers by 5. Total: 40.5.
Las Vegas Hilton Advance Point Spread: Panthers -3.
Walt’s Calculated Line (After Week 11): Panthers -4.
Sunday, Nov. 24, 1:00 ET
Discuss Week 12 Games, Talk Trash

The Game. Edge: Panthers.

If you’ve followed this site for a while, you might remember that I like to respond to my spam mails. Three years ago, a man named Jon Wire from the “United Bank of Africoan” promised me an ATM card of some sort, so I responded as a man named Mister Compassion Chuck Norris, who was raised by wolves. The following season, I received e-mails from Richard Held and Loon Bruce, who told me I won a Facebook Award, which comes with a “lump sum pay out of (750,000.00 GBP).” Pretending to be Matthew Millen Kim, I sent out my application and fake money.

As for 2012, I messed around with a spammer pretending to be a black woman named Mulyana. I assumed Steve Urkel’s identity and had many exchanges with Mulyana. Click the link to see all of that.

A man named Mark Pepe e-mailed me. I eventually convinced him to call someone in the Eagles’ organization to ask for Riley Cooper. I also did the same thing to another spammer by pretending to be Aaron Hernandez. Check out the Spam Mails page to see it.

CAROLINA OFFENSE: It’s a shame that crooked official Clete Blakeman had to ruin what was a fantastic Monday night game. Cam Newton was every bit as good as advertised, torching Aqib Talib and the Patriots, making great plays with his legs and ultimately leading an impressive, game-winning touchdown drive to improve to 7-3.

However, the Dolphins stopped one hot quarterback last week in Philip Rivers, so perhaps they’ll have success against Newton this Sunday. The Dolphins bring an obscene amount of pressure on opposing passers – they have 17 sacks in the previous five games, and their seasonal total (30) is just six shy of Kansas City’s number – so that could rattle Newton, who has been brought down seven times in the past couple of weeks. Then again, Newton could just scramble away and pick up big chunks of yardage again.

Whether Newton does that or not, he won’t be able to rely much on Steve Smith, who will have to deal with Brent Grimes this week. Smith beat Talib for a deep pass Monday night, but didn’t do much after that. Talib was coming off an injury anyway, so Grimes could be more prepared to handle the speedy wideout.

The Panthers will be able to move the chains on the Dolphins, however, via the ground attack. Miami has a very poor run defense that has yielded at least 143 rushing yards to each of its previous four opponents. Even Ryan Mathews looked fantastic this past week.

MIAMI OFFENSE: The Panthers don’t have much of an overall advantage on offense, but their defensive line will be able to dominate Miami’s blockers. The Dolphins, who were already missing Richie Incognito and Jonathan Martin, won’t have center Mike Pouncey again. Pouncey missed Sunday’s contest as well, but that wasn’t as big of a deal because the Chargers don’t put as much pressure on the quarterback. The Panthers, as you well know, are very capable of doing that. Only eight teams have more sacks than they do.

Ryan Tannehill, missing 60 percent of his offensive line, will find it difficult to stay upright. He won’t have as much success sustaining consistent drives this week, though he’ll have some chances to score points because there are holes that can be exploited in Carolina’s secondary.

The Panthers also happen to be pretty week against the run. This is surprising because of how heralded their front seven is, but they’re ranked 20th against the rush in terms of YPC (4.32) over the past four weeks. We just saw Stevan Ridley and LeGarrette Blount have tons of success against them. Granted, Carolina couldn’t focus entirely on those two backs because it had to worry about Brady throwing the ball, but Frank Gore also thrived versus the Panthers two weeks ago, and a struggling Colin Kaepernick didn’t even have Vernon Davis at his disposal for half the game.

RECAP: Carolina’s Monday night victory against the Patriots was their big moment. The Panthers put everything into that game because it was their opportunity to showcase how good they were to a national audience. They triumphed in what turned out to be a very emotional (and tainted) victory, so I have trouble seeing them mustering the same type of energy against the Dolphins. I like the points with Miami, but this won’t be a big play because Carolina is the far superior team, and quite frankly, I’m tired of losing money betting against them.

FINAL THOUGHTS: The Panthers are -5 on the road. This means they’d be -11 at home versus the Dolphins. Doesn’t that seem like too much to you? The sharps are seeing the same thing, as they are pounding Miami. I’ll bump this up to two units.

The Psychology. Edge: Dolphins.

The Panthers are coming off an emotional Monday night victory.

The Vegas. Edge: Dolphins.

Everyone is betting on the Panthers.

Percentage of money on Carolina: 77% (33,000 bets)

The Trends. Edge: Dolphins.

Underdog is 46-21 ATS in the Dolphins’ last 67 games.

Dolphins are 8-15 ATS vs. NFC teams since 2008.

Opening Line: Panthers -3.5.

Opening Total: 40.

Weather: .

Week 12 NFL Pick: Panthers 24, Dolphins 23
Dolphins +5 (2 Units) — Correct; +$200
Over 40.5 (0 Units) — Incorrect; $0
Panthers 20, Dolphins 16

Pittsburgh Steelers (4-6) at Cleveland Browns (4-6)
Line: Browns by 1. Total: 39.5.
Las Vegas Hilton Advance Point Spread: Browns -3.
Walt’s Calculated Line (After Week 11): Browns -3.
Sunday, Nov. 24, 1:00 ET
Discuss Week 12 Games, Talk Trash

The Game. Edge: Browns.

Video of the Week: I’m sure many of you have seen this Key & Peele video because it has about 20 million views, but I wasn’t familiar with it until Injured Reserve sent it to me over the summer. It’s a skit of football players introducing themselves in a bowl game.

PITTSBURGH OFFENSE: Ben Roethlisberger ammassed 367 passing yards and four touchdowns this past week against the Lions. He was unstoppable when targeting Antonio Brown, who scored twice. In fact, Roethlisberger could’ve enjoyed an even more lucrative afternoon had there not been two drops in the end zone.

Having said that, Roethlisberger shouldn’t be expected to match last week’s production because Cleveland’s defense is so much better than Detroit’s when it comes to stopping the pass. Sure, the Browns just allowed 41 points to the Bengals, but most of that came via the offense and special teams. The defense actually did a great job on Andy Dalton, who couldn’t get anything going with A.J. Green. Joe Haden completely shut down Green, and he figures to do the same to Antonio Brown in this matchup.

With Brown erased, Roethlisberger will have to look to the likes of Jerricho Cotchery and Markus Wheaton to move the chains downfield. He’ll have to do it all himself because Cleveland’s No. 5 ground defense will limit Le’Veon Bell on the ground. This will make life extremely difficult for Roethlisberger because the Browns also bring a pretty fierce pass rush.

CLEVELAND OFFENSE: Much like his special teams, Jason Campbell imploded this past week. Campbell entered Sunday’s contest with five touchdowns and no interceptions in two games despite battling the Chiefs and Ravens, two of the top defenses in the NFL. However, he regressed mightily at Cincinnati, failing to complete half of his passes, maintaining a 4.4 YPA and throwing three interceptions. He was incredibly erratic, heaving passes behind or over his receivers the entire afternoon.

Before Campbell is labeled a lost cause again, it should be noted that this is his easiest matchup yet. He’s at home, and he’s battling a slow defense that isn’t particularly good at anything. The Pittsburgh stop units of old were always known for their strong pass rush, yet this squad has more sacks than only three teams in the NFL.

Campbell, who figures to have a clean pocket for most of the afternoon, should be able to keep drives alive, as Josh Gordon and Jordan Cameron won’t be covered very well. The Steelers will probably have Ike Taylor stay on Gordon, which is a very favorable matchup for Cleveland. Taylor, now 33, isn’t nearly the same corner he once was. He won’t keep up with Gordon.

RECAP: Everyone saw the Steelers beat the Lions as underdogs. They also observed as Cleveland imploded at Cincinnati. The Browns are favored, so the public is naturally pounding Pittsburgh as an underdog. I’m going with the other side.

Everyone is slurping the Steelers this week. All you hear on TV is, “Pittsburgh is the one team you don’t want to face right now!” Really? Because of one win against a Detroit team that usually sucks on the road? The Steelers are coming off an emotional victory as an underdog, so I don’t see them playing that well in this contest. The Browns, meanwhile, are underrated. They’ve beaten the Ravens and Bengals at home, so why can’t they knock off Pittsburgh in similar fashion?

FINAL THOUGHTS: Here’s another heavy sharp lean. They love the Browns. The public loves the Steelers because they’re getting points with what’s perceived to be a hot team.

SUNDAY MORNING: It’s very windy in Cleveland today. The under is worth a bet. Meanwhile, five of the six ESPN analysts picked the Steelers to win even though Cleveland is a favorite. That’s a great sign for the Browns.

The Psychology. Edge: Browns.

The Steelers had a big win over the Lions. Following this contest, they have to deal with the Ravens, Dolphins, Bengals and Packers.

The Vegas. Edge: Browns.

Everyone is betting on the Steelers.

Percentage of money on Pittsburgh: 75% (28,000 bets)

The Trends. Edge: Steelers.

History: Steelers have won 23 of the last 26 meetings.

Ben Roethlisberger is 31-18 ATS vs. the AFC North.

Ben Roethlisberger is 18-14 ATS as an underdog.

Browns are 17-10 ATS after allowing 30 or more points since 2005.

Browns are 7-11 ATS as favorites since 2008.

Opening Line: Browns -2.5.

Opening Total: 41.5.

Weather: .

Week 12 NFL Pick: Browns 17, Steelers 13
Browns -1.5 (2 Units) — Incorrect; -$220
Under 39.5 (0 Units) — Correct; $0
Steelers 27, Browns 11

Chicago Bears (6-4) at St. Louis Rams (4-6)
Line: Rams by 1.5. Total: 45.5.
Las Vegas Hilton Advance Point Spread: Pick.
Walt’s Calculated Line (After Week 11): Rams -1.5.
Sunday, Nov. 24, 1:00 ET
Discuss Week 12 Games, Talk Trash

The Game. Edge: None.

The Adventures of Tom Brady’s Haircuts is back for a second season! As with everything else though, I’m moving it to its own separate page. See what’s going on this week with this picture here:

CHICAGO OFFENSE: Jay Cutler recently told the media that his injury is worse than initially reported. He might still be out for a while, but that doesn’t seem to matter all that much because Josh McCown has been fantastic in relief. McCown hasn’t posted monstrous numbers or anything in Cutler’s absence, but the key figure is zero – as in zero turnovers in the four games McCown has played. He has thrown for five touchdowns in the process.

I’d discuss St. Louis fierce defensive front and how it’ll rattle McCown, but the Ravens couldn’t do much to him. Baltimore entered the week ranked second in sacks (33), but managed to get to McCown only twice. The issue for the Ravens was that McCown releases the ball rapidly so that Brandon Marshall and Alshon Jeffery can get their hands on it as quickly as possible. While the Rams have a strong defensive line, their back seven is a bit lacking, especially in the secondary. I can’t see St. Louis’ defensive backfield (29th against the pass in terms of YPA) doing anything about Marshall and Jeffery.

The Rams are just about as weak versus the run. If you recall, they let Chris Johnson have his biggest game of the year. Given that they’re 27th against the rush in terms of YPC (4.32), I don’t see Matt Forte being slowed down at all. Forte will also be a big factor in the passing attack, as usual.

ST. LOUIS OFFENSE: The defense used to carry the Bears, but it’s been the offense that has been keeping the team afloat this year. Chicago’s stop unit has actually been downright pathetic, allowing Ray Rice to look like a dominant runner against last week. Rice has been so bad this entire season, but the Bears simply can’t stop the run; their 5.59 YPC figure over the past four games is the league’s worst in that span.

Given that Chicago couldn’t contain Rice, what in the world is it going to do about Zac Stacy? The fifth-round rookie has been a revelation for St. Louis, as he’s four weeks removed from trampling the Seahawks on Monday night for 134 yards on 26 carries. Rice ran with power and had a ton of success, so that obviously bodes well for Stacy, who happens to be a stronger back.

Of course, the concern for the Rams is Kellen Clemens, who didn’t have to do much in the blowout victory over the Colts back in Week 10. Clemens isn’t any good, but neither is Chicago’s aerial defense, which is 27th in terms of YPA (7.92). The Bears have a horrific secondary, while their pass rush has been inconsistent all year. Thus, it’s possible that Clemens won’t be a total disaster in this contest. I wouldn’t expect him to perform well, but he’ll have a chance to play mistake-free football.

RECAP: This is a tough one. On one hand, I don’t want to pick the Bears because they just had an emotional victory over the Ravens. Plus, their defense is an abomination. On the other hand, to bet the Rams, Clemens will have to win straight up. I just don’t see that happening, so I’m going to fade Clemens.

SUNDAY MORNING: Chad Millman revealed Sunday morning that the sharps like the Rams. I don’t get how anyone can take Clemens to win a game, but then again, I don’t like Chicago either. If you like following the sharps, go with St. Louis. As I’m typing this, the spread has risen to -2.5.

The Psychology. Edge: Rams.

The Bears are coming off an emotional overtime victory.

The Vegas. Edge: None.
Equal action.

Percentage of money on Chicago: 57% (24,000 bets)

The Trends. Edge: Rams.

Bears are 29-18 ATS in November since 2001.

Jay Cutler is 30-55 ATS if you exclude Monday Night Football. ???

Jeff Fisher is 6-2 ATS off a bye in the regular season since 2002.

Jeff Fisher is 39-24 ATS as an underdog since 2006. ???

Opening Line: Pick.

Opening Total: 46.

Weather: Dome.

Week 12 NFL Pick: Bears 23, Rams 20
Bears +1.5 (0 Units) — Incorrect; $0
Under 45.5 (0 Units) — Incorrect; $0
Rams 42, Bears 21

New York Jets (5-5) at Baltimore Ravens (4-6)
Line: Ravens by 4. Total: 39.5.
Las Vegas Hilton Advance Point Spread: Ravens -3.5.
Walt’s Calculated Line (After Week 11): Ravens -2.5.
Sunday, Nov. 24, 1:00 ET
Discuss Week 12 Games, Talk Trash

The Game. Edge: None.

This summer, I ran a Mafia game on the Web site called Penn State Sex Scandal Mafia. You can click the link to read the introduction and see the list of players. I’ll add to this page throughout the season, listing roles and talking about funny things that happened during the game.

Why am I doing this? Well, I wanted to post this on the main section of this Web site so that the mainstream media people who have sand in their vages will pick up on this and complain that I’m being insensitive.

Oh, and by the way, we have other Mafia games going on right now in the Mafia Forum. Mafia is a blast, so come and join the fun.

NEW YORK OFFENSE: I saw on Twitter today – @walterfootball – that Rich Cimini noted that Rex Ryan had a conversation with Geno Smith about improving his game. Ryan told Smith not to commit that turnovers. That was pretty much it. OK, then.

Give-aways are the big problem for Smith, and they figure to be especially prevalent in this contest. Smith has been guilty of 20 turnovers, and 13 of them have come on the road. He was horrific against the Bills, and things won’t get any easier for him in Baltimore.

The Ravens are near the top in almost every defensive category. This includes sacks; they’re just one behind the Bills and Chiefs for the league lead. Smith was sacked four times this past Sunday, so he’ll face similar pressure this week, especially since he won’t be able to rely on his running backs again. Chris Ivory did nothing last week outside of one long run late in the game, and he’ll have similar issues finding rushing lanes because Baltimore’s ground defense is eighth in terms of YPC (3.77). Besides, how are Smith’s inept receivers going to get open? His top option is Santonio Holmes, but he’s not even fully healthy yet. Stephen Hill has been benched… you get the picture. This offense is just a mess.

BALTIMORE OFFENSE: Of course, the same can be said about the Ravens’ scoring attack. Joe Flacco has been a turnover machine himself of late; he has given the ball away six times in his previous three games. It’s not that he has suddenly regressed; his poor pass protection is mostly to blame. Baltimore’s offensive line is in shambles, particularly in the interior. That does not bode well at all for them, given that the Jets bring a ton of inside heat with Muhammad Wilkerson and Sheldon Richardson.

Flacco leaned heavily on Ray Rice last week, who ran with power and conviction for the first time all year. However, this may have just been a mirage based on how bad Chicago’s defense really is. The Bears are 30th against the run in terms of YPC (4.69), while the Jets are actually ranked first in this department. Want to know the last time a team gained more than 90 yards on the ground against New York with just its running backs this season? Never. It hasn’t happened yet. Even the Bills, with Fred Jackson and C.J. Spiller, were limited to 45 yards on 29 carries.

Torrey Smith should have a big game, however, as the one area where the Jets struggle is defending receivers because their secondary stinks. They just signed Ed Reed, who will actually be making his second trip back to Baltimore this season. Reed was actually OK in his debut with the Jets this past week; it was Dee Milliner who let the team down yet again. Luckily for New York, the Ravens don’t have a particularly strong No. 2 wideout.

RECAP: The Jets are the first team in NFL history to alternate wins and losses through 10 games. Can they make it 11? I think so. In fact, I like them a good deal this week. Three reasons:

1. This spread is too high. These teams are about even, so I don’t see why it’s not -3. Anything above a field goal is too much for an offensively challenged team in what figures to be a defensive struggle. Remember, two of Baltimore’s four wins have been by three. A third victory was a 7-6 affair between the Ravens and Browns heading into the fourth quarter. Baltimore is simply not built to win by a wide margin.

2. The Ravens are coming off an emotional, overtime loss. Teams that have to travel following a defeat in an extra session (Baltimore was on the road, so they went back home) have fared terribly against the spread over the years.

3. This is a look-ahead situation for the Ravens. It’s yet another spot where there’s a favorite playing prior to Thursday night. Baltimore has to prepare for its Thanksgiving night clash against the Steelers, so it won’t be 100-percent focused for this matchup, especially after watching the Jets embarrass themselves at Buffalo last week. How can they take the Jets seriously?

FINAL THOUGHTS: The sharps are leaning toward the Jets, as the public wants to fade Geno Smith after last week’s performance. Unfortunately, we’re not getting as much line value as I’d like to see. I’m going to drop this down to two units.

The Psychology. Edge: None.
No edge found.

The Vegas. Edge: Jets.

Everyone is fading New York.

Percentage of money on Baltimore: 81% (40,000 bets)

The Trends. Edge: Ravens.

Ravens are 18-7 ATS at home as an underdog or favorite of 1-7 points with Joe Flacco.

Ravens are 18-7 ATS in November home games since 2000.

Opening Line: Ravens -3.

Opening Total: 40.5.

Weather: .

Week 12 NFL Pick: Ravens 17, Jets 16
Jets +4 (2 Units) — Incorrect; -$220
Under 39.5 (0 Units) — Correct; $0
Ravens 19, Jets 3

Week 12 NFL Picks – Late Games
Indianapolis�at�Arizona, Tennessee�at�Oakland, Dallas�at�NY Giants, Denver�at�New England, San Francisco�at�Washington

Prop/Teaser/Parlay Picks
A list of some of my favorite team/player prop picks this week
(Offense & defensive ROY picks to be counted whenver winners are announced.) Picks carried over on a week-to-week basis will be in black.

Prop/teaser/parlay picks posted in Week 12 NFL Picks – Late Games

2024 NFL Mock Draft - April 16

NFL Power Rankings - Feb. 22

Fantasy Football Rankings - Feb. 19

NFL Picks - Feb. 12

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Note: For legality purposes, this Web site does not promote or advocate gambling. This is solely for entertainment purposes only.

Last Week's NFL Picks Against The Spread (Week 18, 2023): 10-6 (-$415)
Last Week's 2-3 Unit NFL Picks (Week 18, 2023): 3-1 (+$460)
Last Week's 4-5 Unit NFL Picks (Week 18, 2023): 1-1 (-$40)
Last Week Over-Under (Week 18, 2023): 7-9 ($0)
Last Week's Prop/ML/Teaser/Parlay Picks (Week 18, 2023): -$15

2023 NFL Picks of the Month: 1-4, 20.0% (-$2,480)

2023 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 137-135-7, 50.4% (-$7,735)
2023 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 43-38-3, 53.1% (+$520)
2023 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 28-27-1, 50.9% (-$3,110)
2023 Season Over-Under: 139-128-3, 52.1% (+$100)
2023 Season Prop/ML/Teaser/Parlay Picks: -$1,630

1999 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 27-41-3 (39.7%)
2000 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 128-123-8 (51.0%)
2001 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 127-122-7 (51.0%)
2002 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 123-136-7 (47.5%)
2003 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 146-126-8 (53.7%)
2004 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 157-123-8 (56.1%)
2005 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 156-126-11 (55.3%)
2006 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 151-135-9 (52.8%)
2007 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 162-135-10, 54.5% (+$3,585)
2008 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 148-140-7, 51.4% (+$6,105)
2009 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 151-124-9, 54.9% (+$4,235)
2010 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 144-131-8, 52.4% (+$5,880)
2011 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 137-133-12, 50.7% (-$1,335)
2012 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 130-145-8, 47.3% (-$7,445)
2013 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 144-131-8, 52.4% (+$7,825)
2014 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 143-133-7, 51.8% (-$1,885)
2015 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 134-138-12, 49.3% (-$3,215)
2016 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 148-127-10, 53.8% (+$780)
2017 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 137-140-8, 49.5% (-$4,300)
2018 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 140-134-14, 51.3% (+$845)
2019 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 149-128-9, 53.6% (+$1,200)
2020 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 138-124-7, 52.7% (+$9,350)
2021 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 153-141-2, 51.9% (+$210)
2022 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 154-134-8, 53.5% (+$9,860)

2002 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 41-49-2 (45.6%)
2003 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 52-51-2 (50.5%)
2004 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 65-44-3 (59.6%)
2005 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 77-61-1 (55.8%)
2006 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 65-61-4 (51.6%)
2007 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 83-59-5, 58.5% (+$4,110)
2008 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 44-57-3, 43.6% (-$3,510)
2009 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 49-35-3, 58.3% (+$2,260)
2010 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 51-38-4, 57.3% (+$3,180)
2011 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 44-51-3, 46.3% (-$2,715)
2012 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 45-50-2, 47.4% (-$2,130)
2013 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 38-42, 47.5% (-$2,890)
2015 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 47-44-1, 51.6% (-$820)
2016 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 42-35-3, 54.5% (+$475)
2017 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 32-40-3, 43.8% (-$2,395)
2018 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 52-41-2, 55.9% (+$2,670)
2019 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 44-36-2, 55.0% (+$655)
2020 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 47-43-3, 52.2% (-$1,965)
2021 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 50-50, 50.0% (-$1,570)
2022 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 56-44-2, 56.0% (+$1,860)

2002 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 11-12 (47.8%)
2003 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 16-13-1 (55.2%)
2004 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 18-11 (62.1%)
2005 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 25-22-1 (53.2%)
2006 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 21-29-1 (42.0%)
2007 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 35-30-2, 53.8% (+$420)
2008 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 39-26-2, 60.0% (+$4,055)
2009 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 29-26, 52.7% (+$330)
2010 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 32-22, 59.3% (+$4,790)
2011 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 14-14, 50.0% (-$1,260)
2012 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 14-21, 40.0% (-$3,650)
2013 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 17-9-3, 65.4% (+$2,970)
2015 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 17-16-2, 51.5% (-$1,120)
2016 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 21-22-5, 48.8% (-$1,465)
2017 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 20-22-1, 47.6% (-$1,595)
2018 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 27-32-1, 45.8% (-$4,735)
2019 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 37-27-2, 57.8% (+$2,185)
2020 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 37-22-1, 62.7% (+$5,515)
2021 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 32-32-1, 50.0% (-$725)
2022 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 41-30-1, 57.8% (+$3,725)

2001 Season Over-Under: 3-2 (60.0%)
2002 Season Over-Under: 121-91-3 (57.1%)
2003 Season Over-Under: 126-132-2 (48.8%)
2004 Season Over-Under: 139-124-4 (52.9%)
2005 Season Over-Under: 117-145-4 (44.7%)
2006 Season Over-Under: 129-132-5 (49.4%)
2007 Season Over-Under: 136-145-3, 48.4% (-$1,900)
2008 Season Over-Under: 137-125-6, 52.3% (+$860)
2009 Season Over-Under: 128-135-4, 48.7% (-$3,195)
2010 Season Over-Under: 128-135-5, 48.7% (-$5)
2011 Season Over-Under: 131-131-5, 50.0% (+$135)
2012 Season Over-Under: 125-121-5, 50.8% (+$30)
2013 Season Over-Under: 132-130-5, 50.4% (-$340)
2015 Season Over-Under: 143-119-5, 54.6% ($0)
2016 Season Over-Under: 123-141-1, 46.6% (+$95)
2017 Season Over-Under: 136-139-2, 49.5% (+$640)
2018 Season Over-Under: 118-128-3, 48.0% (-$225)
2019 Season Over-Under: 126-133-4, 48.6% (-$50)
2020 Season Over-Under: 141-122-6, 53.6% ($0)
2021 Season Over-Under: 132-151-3, 46.6% ($0)
2022 Season Over-Under: 133-149-2, 47.2% (-$225)

2007 Season Prop/ML/Teaser/Parlay Picks: +$1,035
2008 Season Prop/ML/Teaser/Parlay Picks: +$1,775
2009 Season Prop/ML/Teaser/Parlay Picks: +$865
2010 Season Prop/ML/Teaser/Parlay Picks: -$200
2011 Season Prop/ML/Teaser/Parlay Picks: +$590
2012 Season Prop/ML/Teaser/Parlay Picks: -$1,685
2013 Season Prop/ML/Teaser/Parlay Picks: +$2,245
2015 Season Prop/ML/Teaser/Parlay Picks: -$855
2016 Season Prop/ML/Teaser/Parlay Picks: -$275
2017 Season Prop/ML/Teaser/Parlay Picks: -$510
2018 Season Prop/ML/Teaser/Parlay Picks: +$1,495
2019 Season Prop/ML/Teaser/Parlay Picks: -$1,715
2020 Season Prop/ML/Teaser/Parlay Picks: +$4,975
2021 Season Prop/ML/Teaser/Parlay Picks: +$3,455
2022 Season Prop/ML/Teaser/Parlay Picks: +$5,720

2006 NFL Picks of the Month: 3-3 (50%)
2007 NFL Picks of the Month: 3-3, 50.0% (-$400)
2008 NFL Picks of the Month: 6-1, 85.7% (+$3,720)
2009 NFL Picks of the Month: 3-2, 60.0% (+$640)
2010 NFL Picks of the Month: 2-4, 33.3% (-$1,810)
2011 NFL Picks of the Month: 5-2, 71.4% (+$1,870)
2012 NFL Picks of the Month: 3-2, 60.0% (+$560)
2013 NFL Picks of the Month: 6-0, 100% (+$3,900)
2014 NFL Picks of the Month: 2-4, 33.3% (-$1,350)
2015 NFL Picks of the Month: 3-3, 50.0% (-$100)
2016 NFL Picks of the Month: 5-1, 83.3% (+$2,780)
2017 NFL Picks of the Month: 4-2, 66.7% (+$1,040)
2018 NFL Picks of the Month: 4-3, 57.1% (-$640)
2019 NFL Picks of the Month: 3-3-1, 50.0% (-$625)
2020 NFL Picks of the Month: 3-2, 60.0% (+$665)
2021 NFL Picks of the Month: 2-3, 40.0% (-$920)
2022 NFL Picks of the Month: 3-4, 42.9% (-$1,615)

Career NFL Picks Against The Spread: 3,420-3,152-195, 52.1% (+$21,170)
Career 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 1,106-983-56 (52.9%)
Career 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 549-485-25 (53.1%)
Career Over-Under: 2,853-2,829-74 (50.3%)
Career Second-Half NFL Picks: 23-16-1 (59.0%)
Career NFL Picks of the Month: 46-34-1 (57.5t%)

My Team-by-Team ATS Record
This section shows how well I do when picking each team this year. The purpose is to see how well I read each team. Pushes are not displayed. Winning/losing streak in parentheses.

Cowboys: 8-9	Bears: 11-4	Bucs: 6-11	49ers: 10-7
Eagles: 7-7	Lions: 9-8	Falcons: 8-9	Cardinals: 8-9
Giants: 7-9	Packers: 5-12	Panthers: 8-9	Rams: 8-9
Redskins: 14-3	Vikings: 6-9	Saints: 10-7	Seahawks: 7-9

Bills: 9-7	Bengals: 12-5	Colts: 7-10	Broncos: 9-6
Dolphins: 6-11	Browns: 11-5	Jaguars: 13-4	Chargers: 8-9
Jets: 8-9	Ravens: 11-6	Texans: 5-12	Chiefs: 5-10
Patriots: 7-9	Steelers: 11-6	Titans: 9-8	Raiders: 6-9

Divisional: 50-35 (2011-22: 558-526)	2x Game Edge: 36-24 (2011-22: 363-361)	2x Motivation Edge: 32-36 (2011-22: 478-405)	2x Spread Edge: 41-40 (2011-22: 197-168)
2x Vegas Edge: 41-38 (2011-22: 407-406)	2x Trend Edge: 15-13 (2011-22: 306-279)	Double Edge: 17-13 (2011-22: 190-172)	Triple Edge: 1-1 (2011-22: 32-36)

NBA Picks Against the Spread

2024 NFL Draft Goals

2024 NFL Draft Potential Busts

NFL Free Agent Signing Grades – Latest Signing Grades for 2024 NFL Free Agency

2024 NFL Mock Draft

2024 NFL Draft Day 3 Sleepers

NFL Picks Against the Spread: Week 12, 2013

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