NFL Picks Against the Spread: Week 19, 2016

NFL Picks (Preseason 2016): 12-7-1 (+$1,290)
NFL Picks (Week 1, 2016): 13-3 (+$1,735) full review
NFL Picks (Week 2, 2016): 9-7 (-$430) full review
NFL Picks (Week 3, 2016): 7-7-2 (+$880) full review
NFL Picks (Week 4, 2016): 7-8 (-$70) full review
NFL Picks (Week 5, 2016): 6-7-1 (+$115) full review
NFL Picks (Week 6, 2016): 7-7-1 (+$515) full review
NFL Picks (Week 7, 2016): 11-4 (+$1,560) full review
NFL Picks (Week 8, 2016): 8-4-1 (-$60) full review
NFL Picks (Week 9, 2016): 5-6-2 (-$1,170) full review
NFL Picks (Week 10, 2016): 9-4-1 (+$80) full review
NFL Picks (Week 11, 2016): 7-7 (+$225) full review
NFL Picks (Week 12, 2016): 5-10-1 (-$1,090) full review
NFL Picks (Week 13, 2016): 9-6 (-$205) full review
NFL Picks (Week 14, 2016): 7-8-1 (-$440) full review
NFL Picks (Week 15, 2016): 8-8 (+$55) full review
NFL Picks (Week 16, 2016): 4-12 (-$2,205) full review
NFL Picks (Week 17, 2016): 8-7-1 (+$415) full review
NFL Picks (Week 18, 2016): 2-2 (+$445)

NFL Picks (2016): 144-124-10 (+$1,645)
NFL Picks (2015): 133-138-10 (-$2,360)
NFL Picks (2014): 143-133-7 (-$1,885)
NFL Picks (2013): 144-131-8 (+$5,580)
NFL Picks (2012): 130-145-8 (-$5,760)
NFL Picks (2011): 137-133-12 (-$1,925)
NFL Picks (2010): 144-131-8 (+$6,080)
NFL Picks (2009): 151-124-9 (+$3,370)
NFL Picks (2008): 136-125-6 (+$4,330)
If you don’t quite understand the line, total or anything else, go to my Sports Betting FAQ.

Vegas betting action updated Jan. 15, 4:05 p.m. ET. Follow @walterfootball for updates.

Go to Week 19 NFL Picks – Saturday Games

Pittsburgh Steelers (12-5) at Kansas City Chiefs (12-4)
Line: Chiefs by 2.5. Total: 44.5.
Walt’s Calculated Line: Chiefs -1.5.
Sunday, Jan. 8, 8:20 ET
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The Game. Edge: Steelers.

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Emmitt on the Brink Season 9 is complete! Season 8 saw Emmitt going to North Korea to stop Kim Jong-un from destroying the world. It featured a mind-blowing twist at the very end that you absolutely need to check out if you haven’t already. Season 9 dealt with the election, as well as the League of Failed General Managers, led by Matt Millen and Hillary Clinton.

A reminder that Jerks of the Week for this week is up, so just click the link. This week’s jerks entry is Walter Goes to Harrisburg, Part 1.

PITTSBURGH OFFENSE: The Steelers destroyed the Chiefs on a Sunday night back in Week 4, as Ben Roethlisberger torched a secondary that was just realizing that it missed Sean Smith, who defected for Oakland. Kansas City didn’t have a strong No. 2 corner at the time, but that has changed recently. Terrance Mitchell has come out of nowhere to perform on a high level for them.

That said, it’s still going to be difficult to contain Antonio Brown, as well as Ben Roethlisberger’s other weapons. This includes Le’Veon Bell. The Chiefs have struggled to stop the run this year, and not having Derrick Johnson on the field will hurt tremendously. Bell just ripped through the Dolphins, and I imagine him doing the same to Kansas City.

The one caveat is Roethlisberger’s health. For some reason, Todd Haley called a pass play with 4:30 remaining in regulation despite his team being up 30-12. Roethlisberger took a big hit and was wincing in pain as he grabbed his shoulder. Roethlisberger then showed up to the post-game press conference in a walking boot. I’m not sure why he needed a walking boot after grabbing his shoulder in pain, but perhaps his body is just weird. Nevertheless, Roethlisberger potentially not being 100 percent would obviously have an enormous impact on this game.

KANSAS CITY OFFENSE: While Roethlisberger torched the Chiefs’ secondary in the Week 4 blowout, Alex Smith didn’t fare nearly as well. Smith was just 13-of-21 for 131 yards and an interception in the opening half, but he was able to throw his two scores in garbage time when the Steelers stopped trying. Smith is a quality game-manager, but he’s usually not equipped to thrive in shootouts. If he’ll be asked to do so again, things probably won’t end well for him.

One area of concern is the pass protection. Left tackle Eric Fisher is not very good, and he’ll be going up against James Harrison, who is somehow still playing on a Pro Bowl level. I also don’t trust the interior to block Stephon Tuitt. Thus, Smith will have to release quick passes, and I imagine he’ll be able to engineer some successful offensive drives doing so. He’ll obviously target Travis Kelce heavily, and given that the Steelers aren’t very good at defending tight ends, Kelce should have a great afternoon. However, the dink-and-dunk approach isn’t very consistent, which is why the Chiefs often get to 17 or 20 points and just sit on that sum without being able to do anything.

I don’t expect Kansas City to run effectively versus a defense that just put the clamps on Jay Ajayi, so the Chiefs will need Tyreek Hill to hit a big play. Hill is usually good for one of those per game, so whether that happens or not could decide if the Chiefs move on to the AFC Championship or not.

RECAP: I made this spread -1.5, and after this line bounced around a bit, that’s exactly what it is right now.

I’m taking the Steelers. I think they’re slightly better overall, and Kansas City has no home-field advantage, owning just a 13-18 spread record as hosts under Andy Reid. Roethlisberger is the superior quarterback, and Pittsburgh has the better offensive line.

However, the reason I’m not betting this game, aside from the lack of value – I was hoping for +3 – is a potential Roethlisberger injury. If he’s completely healthy, I’m confident the Steelers will win. But what if he’s not? He took a pretty crushing blow on his final pass attempt, so it’s possible that he could be at 80-percent capacity or worse.

THURSDAY THOUGHTS: I may put a unit on the Steelers. I’m thinking about it. Ben Roethlisberger is out of his walking boot even though he hurt his shoulder. I don’t know. I don’t get it. But the Steelers are the better team, and they figure to have a huge advantage if the field is very wet from the potential snow and rain.

FINAL THOUGHTS: I was hoping to see one of two things: One, for this line would be +3, which would make me confident enough to wager a couple of units on the Steelers. And two, horrible weather, which would give Pittsburgh a big advantage because of its superior ground attack. Neither has happened. This line stopped moving at +2.5, and while there might be some light rain, the wind isn’t expected to be heavy. I think this line is set about right where it should be. I’m taking the Steelers, but at +2.5, I don’t like them enough to bet them.

The Psychology. Edge: None.
No edge found.

The Vegas. Edge: None.
Equal action.

Percentage of money on Pittsburgh: 59% (53,000 bets)

The Trends. Edge: Steelers.

Ben Roethlisberger is 10-5 ATS in the playoffs (7-4 as a favorite ???).

Steelers are 22-31 ATS as road favorites since 2007. ???

Steelers are 11-23 ATS as road favorites coming off a win under Mike Tomlin. ???

Chiefs are 12-29 ATS as home underdogs of 1-5.5 points since 2007. ???

Opening Line: Steelers -1.

Opening Total: 46.5.

Weather: .

Week 19 NFL Pick: Steelers 23, Chiefs 20
Steelers +2.5 (0 Units) — Correct; $0
Under 44 (0 Units) — Correct; $0
Steelers 18, Chiefs 16

Green Bay Packers (11-6) at Dallas Cowboys (13-3)
Line: Cowboys by 5. Total: 52.5.
Walt’s Calculated Line: Cowboys -3.
Sunday, Jan. 8, 4:40 ET
Comment on this game

The Game. Edge: Packers.

This week on FOX , we’re going to have Joe Buck and Troy Aikman calling the shots instead the great preseason homers like Kevin Reilly, Ron Wolfley and Don Tollefson, inept ESPN guys Emmitt, Herman Edwards and Matt Millen, and aloof people like Dan Fouts. Here’s what it would sound like if these seven dudes (and some special guests) were calling this game:

Reilly: Welcome to the city of Hell, known as Dallas, Texas. Tonight, we have the Dallas Cowgirls taking on the Green Bay Packers. Guys, mother let me watch the college football national championship last night between the Alabama Elephants and the Clemson Lions. I was looking for players for my Eagles to pick in the draft this June, and then after the game, the Clemson players kept talking about God. And that got me thinking – why don’t I invoke the power of God to smite the Cowboys? I’ve tried to kill NFC East quarterbacks who beat my Eagles this year, and I’ve failed, so why not let God do it?

Emmitt: Abraham, from what I understand from reading the Bible novel, God is the guy in the heaven who make thing happen. He real powerful and strongful, so why would he listen to a regular ol’ guy like yourselfs?

Reilly: Because I want the Cowboys to die, and God is great enough to make that happen! Plus, mother says I’m special, so God has to listen to a special person right?

Herm: NOT SPECIAL! DEFINITELY NOT SPECIAL! ABSOLUTELY NOT SPECIAL! FAR FROM SPECIAL! NOT SPECIAL SAUCE! NO SPECIAL SAUCE HERE! NO SPECIAL SAUCE AVAILABLE! HERM HATES SPECIAL SAUCE! IT COMES ON SANDWICHES SOMETIMES AND RUINS THEM! WHY CAN’T PEOPLE JUST EAT PLAIN!? WHAT’S WRONG WITH PLAIN!? HERM LIKES TO RIDE THE PLANE! PLANES ARE FUN! UNLESS YOU GET FRISKED BY SECURITY! THEN PLANES ARE NO GOOD! NOT GOOD AT ALL! BUT HOW DID HERM START TALKING ABOUT PLANES!? NEXT HERM’S GONNA START TALKING ABOUT TRAINS! THEN HE’S GONNA START TALKING ABOUT AUTOMOBILES! PLANES, TRAINS AND AUTOMOBILES! SOUNDS LIKE A CLEVER FILM TITLE HERM JUST MADE UP! HERM’S COINING THE PHRASE! HERM’S GOING TO THE COPYRIGHT OFFICE RIGHT NOW TO MAKE IT LEGAL! SEE YA! PEACE OUT!

Millen: Herm, even though you’re not here anymore, I’m going to address you. Getting frisked at the airport is one of the best reasons to ride a plane. When I go to the airport, I typically stuff numerous kielbasas into my backside so that when the 100-percent USDA TSA Guard searches it, he’ll find them and have to pull them out of my backside! Then, I give him some of that special sauce you’re talking about, and I smear it on the kielbasas and ask him to re-insert them into my backside.

Tollefson: Millen, it’s funny you should bring up frisking. One time, a female TSA agent had the audacity to frisk me. As if she should’ve been working instead of slaving away in the kitchen. She started searching for me, and that’s when I seized the opportunity and grabbed a baseball bat and clubbed her over the head. When she came to, she was in a sexy maid’s outfit and had a broom in her hand. She cleaned my apartment until she passed out, and then I threw her in the dumpster.

Reilly: Tolly, it’s so cool that you can talk to women like that. I’m too scared, and mother says I’m not ready. But I will talk to God. Zeus, if you can hear me, please throw some lightning bolts and deal three damage to Dak Prescott so that he dies and then my Eagles will always beat the Cowboys.

Wolfley: I ONCE SPOKE TO GOD. HE DISGUISED HIMSELF AS A DOG WEARING A BANDANA. HE TOLD ME TO GIVE HIM A MEATLOAF SO I GAVE IT TO HIM. COME TO THINK OF IT, THAT MIGHT HAVE JUST BEEN A DOG WEARING A BANDANA AND NOT GOD.

Reilly: Zeus, please, listen to me. Destroy Dak Prescott!

Fouts: And here’s what he means by destroy Dak Prescott. Destroy is a complicated word, and if you break it apart, you see that it’s really two words: Des and troy. Des is the first three letters of desk, destination and Desmond. That means you write on it while spending time on vacation and pushing a button every 108 minutes, which is one more than 107 minutes, but two fewer than 110 minutes. Then, there’s Troy. That was a city where people snuck in by giving people Trojan condoms, and then they had sex with everyone and no one got pregnant, and they didn’t understand why. That’s why they called it the Trojan condom horse.

Reilly: That’s not how that happened at all, idiot. Mother told me what happened. God, Zeus, why are you not listening to me!? All I want you to do is kill someone, and you’re not doing it. Life sucks!

God’s Voice: Kevin Reilly, my son, I will do what you ask, my son.

Reilly: What!? Really!? YES, FINALLY!

God’s Voice: Kevin, I’m going to kill your enemies, my son. The Cowboys are your enemies, my son. The Giants are foes for your Eagles, my son. The Redskins are threats to your Eagles, my son. The Buccaneers beat your team in the playoffs once, so they need to go too, my son. How about the Panthers, who knocked you out once, my son? Let’s discuss the Rams, who beat you once, my son. What about the Saints, who ruined your playoff chances once, my son? Let’s guess one more, my son. Can you guess another team that knocked your Eagles out of the playoffs, my son?

Reilly: Uhh… the umm… wait a second, why does God sound vaguely familiar? If I didn’t know better, I’d…

God’s Voice: Sorry, my son, the answer is not pepperoni pizza, my son. The answer is the Packers, my son. I also would’ve accepted the Saints, my son.

Reilly: F*** YOU CHARLES D- I mean, uhh, God, why are you talking like Charles Davis? If you talk like Charles Davis, I’d rather go to Hell! Satan? Satan, can you hear-

God’s Voice: My son, I can’t grant your wishes, my son. Not because I hate you, my son, but because I am Charles Davis, my son. I am pretending to be God because I’m just guessing you asked God to do something you wanted to do, but couldn’t, Kevin. Sorry to trick you, Kevin. Just having some fun, Kevin. Need to have fun, Kevin, because I’m kidnapped and only you can save me, Kevin. Please, Kevin, they are torturing me, Kevin. You’re my only hope, Kevin.

Reilly: GOD F***ING DAMN IT, I HATE YOU CHARLES DAVIS AND I HATE YOU GOD, AND I AM GOING TO KILL ALL OF YOU, YES I’M GOING TO GO TO HEAVEN AND DESTROY YOU, GOD, AND THEN I’LL THROW LIGHTNING BOLTS AT THE COWBOYS AND CHARLES DAVIS AND THEN I’LL F***ING STUFF PEPPERONI PIZZAS IN HIS F***ING FACE! We’ll be back after this…

GREEN BAY OFFENSE: Aaron Rodgers has been running the table thus far, but now it seems as though he’ll have to do so without Jordy Nelson, who suffered a rib injury in the early stages of the victory over the Giants. Though Rodgers struggled for one-and-a-half quarters, he got into a groove and ultimately torched New York without Nelson’s services, so he won’t need his No. 1 receiver, right?

Probably not. Rodgers is the hottest quarterback in the NFL and is fully deserving the MVP award because the Packers would be completely lost without him. Rodgers now has a healthy Randall Cobb to throw to, which hasn’t been the case this year. Rodgers also has an easier matchup this week, as Dallas’ secondary isn’t nearly as potent as New York’s, especially without Morris Claiborne being at full strength. The Cowboys don’t have the personnel to rattle Rodgers at all either. Rodgers had an eternity to throw against the Giants at times, despite battling a pass rush that is certainly better than Dallas’. The Cowboys have David Irving, and, well, that’s about it. Green Bay possesses an elite offensive line and will be able to keep Rodgers clean.

The Packers just seem to match up extremely well against the Cowboys on this side of the ball. Dallas’ one defensive strength is being able to stop the run, but the Packers have shown that they don’t need a consistent ground attack to be successful. Christine Michael will pick up a decent gain here or there, but Green Bay will primarily move the ball via Rodgers’ excellent passing, which the Cowboys aren’t equipped to stop.

DALLAS OFFENSE: Everyone talks about Ezekiel Elliott and Dak Prescott, and rightfully so. They’ve been amazing despite being rookies. However, the engine behind the Cowboys’ scoring attack is the offensive line, which is one of the league’s best. Aside from Doug Free, there aren’t any liabilities for the Cowboys up front.

That may not be the case in this contest, however. Left tackle Tyron Smith suffered a knee injury when the Cowboys were inexplicably trying to run up the score in a meaningless Week 16 game against the Lions. Smith is likely to play, but what if he’s not 100 percent? The Cowboys already had a weakness in Free trying to block Nick Perry, and if Smith isn’t fully healthy, he may have some issues versus Julius Peppers, who had a terrific performance last week.

If Smith is healthy, there’s no doubt the Cowboys will put up some points, as the Packers have obvious weaknesses in their secondary. Green Bay isn’t bad against the run, but containing Ezekiel Elliott is not like putting the clamps on Paul Perkins and Rashad Jennings.

RECAP: I don’t understand this spread. Let me get this straight… a rookie quarterback making his first playoff start is favored by 4.5 points over the best quarterback in the NFL, who happens to be absolutely on fire right now? Uhh… what?

I made this line Cowboys -3, and I thought that might be kind of high. Dallas has a horrible home-field advantage; the team was 5-3 against the spread as hosts this year, but was lucky to cover versus Philadelphia and Baltimore. Meanwhile, the Packers, under Rodgers, have been terrific in dome environments for the most part, covering five of their previous seven indoor games. Given that this contest will be played in perfect conditions, Rodgers will be able to torch the Cowboys without having to worry about the wind or rain.

The Cowboys also aren’t as good as their record indicates. They really had just one convincing victory over a true playoff team all year, beating the Steelers in the final seconds. They defeated the Packers in Week 6, but Green Bay had a Thursday night game coming up, so it wasn’t completely focused. Since Thanksgiving, the Cowboys nearly lost to the Vikings (and would have if Adam Thielen didn’t muff a punt), dropped a game to the overrated Giants, barely snuck by the Buccaneers, and then thrashed the Lions, a team that ended its season on a four-game losing streak because of countless injuries. I’m not saying the Cowboys aren’t a good team, or anything, because they are. However, their record is inflated, and this spread happens to be as well.

Besides, we’re getting 4.5 points with Rodgers, for crying out loud. How often does that happen? It hasn’t occurred yet this year, though it’s happened twice in the playoffs the past couple of years. Rodgers, despite being banged up in battles against the Seahawks and Cardinals, was able to cover large spreads in those contests. Rodgers is completely healthy now, and his offensive line is as well. I don’t see why he couldn’t win this game, or at least keep it close. Even if the Packers are down, Rodgers can certainly engineer a back-door scoring drive.

This is my top pick of the week, as I’m taking the Packers for five units. I already made my January NFL Pick of the Month, but if this line were +6 or more, I’d actually consider a second pick of the month.

THURSDAY THOUGHTS: I still love the Packers. I’m hoping this line moves up, but I also fear it dropping beneath +4. If this drops to +4, I’ll definitely think about locking it in.

FINAL THOUGHTS: Argh. This spread rose to +6 last night. I didn’t lock it in because I thought there might be a chance that the line could move up to +6.5 like it did in the Seattle-Atlanta game. Alas, it did not, as there was some sharp action at +6. Before you get too excited, professional money moved this line to -6 in the first place, but that could’ve been phantom movement in an attempt to get a great number. At any rate, I’m holding out for +6, so I’ll be closely monitoring this spread. Either way, I love the Packers, as getting more than a field goal with the best quarterback in the NFL seems like a gift. I think the Packers cover this spread more often than not, especially with the Cowboys being a bit overrated as a result of their easy schedule and poor home-field advantage.

The Psychology. Edge: None.
No edge found.

The Vegas. Edge: Cowboys.
No surprise that the public is betting the Packers.

Percentage of money on Green Bay: 60% (63,000 bets)

The Trends. Edge: Packers.

The underdog is 70-41 ATS in Cowboys games since 2010.

Aaron Rodgers is 78-48 ATS since 2009 (9-6 ATS as a favorite of 12+).

Aaron Rodgers is 33-25 ATS on the road as long as he’s not favored by 6.5 or more points.

Aaron Rodgers is 16-12 ATS as an underdog.

Cowboys are 16-25 ATS as home favorites in Cowboys Stadium (excluding Thanksgiving).

Opening Line: Cowboys -4.

Opening Total: 51.5.

Weather: .

Week 19 NFL Pick: Packers 28, Cowboys 27
Packers +5 (5 Units) — Correct; +$500
Over 52.5 (0 Units) — Correct; $0
Packers 34, Cowboys 31

Week 19 NFL Picks – Saturday Games
Seahawks at Falcons, Texans at Patriots

Prop/Teaser/Parlay Picks
A list of some of my favorite team/player prop picks this week
(Offense & defensive ROY picks to be counted whenver winners are announced.) Picks carried over on a week-to-week basis will be in black.

Props to be posted here

2024 NFL Mock Draft - April 16

NFL Power Rankings - Feb. 22

Fantasy Football Rankings - Feb. 19

NFL Picks - Feb. 12

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Last Week's NFL Picks Against The Spread (Week 18, 2023): 10-6 (-$415)
Last Week's 2-3 Unit NFL Picks (Week 18, 2023): 3-1 (+$460)
Last Week's 4-5 Unit NFL Picks (Week 18, 2023): 1-1 (-$40)
Last Week Over-Under (Week 18, 2023): 7-9 ($0)
Last Week's Prop/ML/Teaser/Parlay Picks (Week 18, 2023): -$15

2023 NFL Picks of the Month: 1-4, 20.0% (-$2,480)

2023 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 137-135-7, 50.4% (-$7,735)
2023 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 43-38-3, 53.1% (+$520)
2023 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 28-27-1, 50.9% (-$3,110)
2023 Season Over-Under: 139-128-3, 52.1% (+$100)
2023 Season Prop/ML/Teaser/Parlay Picks: -$1,630

1999 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 27-41-3 (39.7%)
2000 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 128-123-8 (51.0%)
2001 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 127-122-7 (51.0%)
2002 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 123-136-7 (47.5%)
2003 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 146-126-8 (53.7%)
2004 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 157-123-8 (56.1%)
2005 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 156-126-11 (55.3%)
2006 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 151-135-9 (52.8%)
2007 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 162-135-10, 54.5% (+$3,585)
2008 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 148-140-7, 51.4% (+$6,105)
2009 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 151-124-9, 54.9% (+$4,235)
2010 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 144-131-8, 52.4% (+$5,880)
2011 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 137-133-12, 50.7% (-$1,335)
2012 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 130-145-8, 47.3% (-$7,445)
2013 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 144-131-8, 52.4% (+$7,825)
2014 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 143-133-7, 51.8% (-$1,885)
2015 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 134-138-12, 49.3% (-$3,215)
2016 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 148-127-10, 53.8% (+$780)
2017 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 137-140-8, 49.5% (-$4,300)
2018 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 140-134-14, 51.3% (+$845)
2019 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 149-128-9, 53.6% (+$1,200)
2020 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 138-124-7, 52.7% (+$9,350)
2021 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 153-141-2, 51.9% (+$210)
2022 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 154-134-8, 53.5% (+$9,860)

2002 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 41-49-2 (45.6%)
2003 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 52-51-2 (50.5%)
2004 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 65-44-3 (59.6%)
2005 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 77-61-1 (55.8%)
2006 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 65-61-4 (51.6%)
2007 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 83-59-5, 58.5% (+$4,110)
2008 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 44-57-3, 43.6% (-$3,510)
2009 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 49-35-3, 58.3% (+$2,260)
2010 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 51-38-4, 57.3% (+$3,180)
2011 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 44-51-3, 46.3% (-$2,715)
2012 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 45-50-2, 47.4% (-$2,130)
2013 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 38-42, 47.5% (-$2,890)
2015 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 47-44-1, 51.6% (-$820)
2016 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 42-35-3, 54.5% (+$475)
2017 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 32-40-3, 43.8% (-$2,395)
2018 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 52-41-2, 55.9% (+$2,670)
2019 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 44-36-2, 55.0% (+$655)
2020 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 47-43-3, 52.2% (-$1,965)
2021 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 50-50, 50.0% (-$1,570)
2022 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 56-44-2, 56.0% (+$1,860)

2002 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 11-12 (47.8%)
2003 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 16-13-1 (55.2%)
2004 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 18-11 (62.1%)
2005 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 25-22-1 (53.2%)
2006 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 21-29-1 (42.0%)
2007 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 35-30-2, 53.8% (+$420)
2008 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 39-26-2, 60.0% (+$4,055)
2009 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 29-26, 52.7% (+$330)
2010 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 32-22, 59.3% (+$4,790)
2011 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 14-14, 50.0% (-$1,260)
2012 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 14-21, 40.0% (-$3,650)
2013 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 17-9-3, 65.4% (+$2,970)
2015 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 17-16-2, 51.5% (-$1,120)
2016 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 21-22-5, 48.8% (-$1,465)
2017 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 20-22-1, 47.6% (-$1,595)
2018 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 27-32-1, 45.8% (-$4,735)
2019 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 37-27-2, 57.8% (+$2,185)
2020 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 37-22-1, 62.7% (+$5,515)
2021 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 32-32-1, 50.0% (-$725)
2022 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 41-30-1, 57.8% (+$3,725)

2001 Season Over-Under: 3-2 (60.0%)
2002 Season Over-Under: 121-91-3 (57.1%)
2003 Season Over-Under: 126-132-2 (48.8%)
2004 Season Over-Under: 139-124-4 (52.9%)
2005 Season Over-Under: 117-145-4 (44.7%)
2006 Season Over-Under: 129-132-5 (49.4%)
2007 Season Over-Under: 136-145-3, 48.4% (-$1,900)
2008 Season Over-Under: 137-125-6, 52.3% (+$860)
2009 Season Over-Under: 128-135-4, 48.7% (-$3,195)
2010 Season Over-Under: 128-135-5, 48.7% (-$5)
2011 Season Over-Under: 131-131-5, 50.0% (+$135)
2012 Season Over-Under: 125-121-5, 50.8% (+$30)
2013 Season Over-Under: 132-130-5, 50.4% (-$340)
2015 Season Over-Under: 143-119-5, 54.6% ($0)
2016 Season Over-Under: 123-141-1, 46.6% (+$95)
2017 Season Over-Under: 136-139-2, 49.5% (+$640)
2018 Season Over-Under: 118-128-3, 48.0% (-$225)
2019 Season Over-Under: 126-133-4, 48.6% (-$50)
2020 Season Over-Under: 141-122-6, 53.6% ($0)
2021 Season Over-Under: 132-151-3, 46.6% ($0)
2022 Season Over-Under: 133-149-2, 47.2% (-$225)

2007 Season Prop/ML/Teaser/Parlay Picks: +$1,035
2008 Season Prop/ML/Teaser/Parlay Picks: +$1,775
2009 Season Prop/ML/Teaser/Parlay Picks: +$865
2010 Season Prop/ML/Teaser/Parlay Picks: -$200
2011 Season Prop/ML/Teaser/Parlay Picks: +$590
2012 Season Prop/ML/Teaser/Parlay Picks: -$1,685
2013 Season Prop/ML/Teaser/Parlay Picks: +$2,245
2015 Season Prop/ML/Teaser/Parlay Picks: -$855
2016 Season Prop/ML/Teaser/Parlay Picks: -$275
2017 Season Prop/ML/Teaser/Parlay Picks: -$510
2018 Season Prop/ML/Teaser/Parlay Picks: +$1,495
2019 Season Prop/ML/Teaser/Parlay Picks: -$1,715
2020 Season Prop/ML/Teaser/Parlay Picks: +$4,975
2021 Season Prop/ML/Teaser/Parlay Picks: +$3,455
2022 Season Prop/ML/Teaser/Parlay Picks: +$5,720

2006 NFL Picks of the Month: 3-3 (50%)
2007 NFL Picks of the Month: 3-3, 50.0% (-$400)
2008 NFL Picks of the Month: 6-1, 85.7% (+$3,720)
2009 NFL Picks of the Month: 3-2, 60.0% (+$640)
2010 NFL Picks of the Month: 2-4, 33.3% (-$1,810)
2011 NFL Picks of the Month: 5-2, 71.4% (+$1,870)
2012 NFL Picks of the Month: 3-2, 60.0% (+$560)
2013 NFL Picks of the Month: 6-0, 100% (+$3,900)
2014 NFL Picks of the Month: 2-4, 33.3% (-$1,350)
2015 NFL Picks of the Month: 3-3, 50.0% (-$100)
2016 NFL Picks of the Month: 5-1, 83.3% (+$2,780)
2017 NFL Picks of the Month: 4-2, 66.7% (+$1,040)
2018 NFL Picks of the Month: 4-3, 57.1% (-$640)
2019 NFL Picks of the Month: 3-3-1, 50.0% (-$625)
2020 NFL Picks of the Month: 3-2, 60.0% (+$665)
2021 NFL Picks of the Month: 2-3, 40.0% (-$920)
2022 NFL Picks of the Month: 3-4, 42.9% (-$1,615)

Career NFL Picks Against The Spread: 3,420-3,152-195, 52.1% (+$21,170)
Career 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 1,106-983-56 (52.9%)
Career 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 549-485-25 (53.1%)
Career Over-Under: 2,853-2,829-74 (50.3%)
Career Second-Half NFL Picks: 23-16-1 (59.0%)
Career NFL Picks of the Month: 46-34-1 (57.5t%)

My Team-by-Team ATS Record
This section shows how well I do when picking each team this year. The purpose is to see how well I read each team. Pushes are not displayed. Winning/losing streak in parentheses.

Cowboys: 8-9	Bears: 11-4	Bucs: 6-11	49ers: 10-7
Eagles: 7-7	Lions: 9-8	Falcons: 8-9	Cardinals: 8-9
Giants: 7-9	Packers: 5-12	Panthers: 8-9	Rams: 8-9
Redskins: 14-3	Vikings: 6-9	Saints: 10-7	Seahawks: 7-9

Bills: 9-7	Bengals: 12-5	Colts: 7-10	Broncos: 9-6
Dolphins: 6-11	Browns: 11-5	Jaguars: 13-4	Chargers: 8-9
Jets: 8-9	Ravens: 11-6	Texans: 5-12	Chiefs: 5-10
Patriots: 7-9	Steelers: 11-6	Titans: 9-8	Raiders: 6-9

Divisional: 50-35 (2011-22: 558-526)	2x Game Edge: 36-24 (2011-22: 363-361)	2x Motivation Edge: 32-36 (2011-22: 478-405)	2x Spread Edge: 41-40 (2011-22: 197-168)
2x Vegas Edge: 41-38 (2011-22: 407-406)	2x Trend Edge: 15-13 (2011-22: 306-279)	Double Edge: 17-13 (2011-22: 190-172)	Triple Edge: 1-1 (2011-22: 32-36)

2023 NFL Draft Re-Grades

2024 NFL Draft Second-Day Values: Offense

NBA Picks Against the Spread

2024 NFL Draft Goals

2024 NFL Draft Potential Busts

NFL Free Agent Signing Grades – Latest Signing Grades for 2024 NFL Free Agency

NFL Picks Against the Spread: Week 19, 2016

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