NFL Picks Against the Spread: Week 17, 2018

NFL Picks (Preseason 2018): 11-10 (+$445)
NFL Picks (Week 1, 2018): 8-7-1 (+$150)
NFL Picks (Week 2, 2018): 8-7-1 (-$80)
NFL Picks (Week 3, 2018): 8-8 (-$530)
NFL Picks (Week 4, 2018): 8-6-1 (+$480)
NFL Picks (Week 5, 2018): 10-4-1 (+$1,515)
NFL Picks (Week 6, 2018): 6-7-2 (-$1,015)
NFL Picks (Week 7, 2018): 7-7 (+$430)
NFL Picks (Week 8, 2018): 6-8 (+$710)
NFL Picks (Week 9, 2018): 5-8 (-$1,245)
NFL Picks (Week 10, 2018): 5-8-1 (-$955)
NFL Picks (Week 11, 2018): 5-5-3 (+$950)
NFL Picks (Week 12, 2018): 7-8 (-$5)
NFL Picks (Week 13, 2018): 7-9 (-$630)
NFL Picks (Week 14, 2018): 11-5 (+$870)
NFL Picks (Week 15, 2018): 8-7-1 (-$1,225)
NFL Picks (Week 16, 2018): 6-8-2 (+$45)

NFL Picks (2018): 126-122-11 (-$90)
NFL Picks (2017): 137-147-10 (-$4,300)
NFL Picks (2016): 148-127-10 (+$780)
NFL Picks (2015): 133-138-10 (-$3,215)
NFL Picks (2014): 143-133-7 (-$1,885)
NFL Picks (2013): 144-131-8 (+$7,825)
NFL Picks (2012): 130-145-8 (-$7,445)
NFL Picks (2011): 137-133-12 (-$1,335)
NFL Picks (2010): 144-131-8 (+$5,880)
NFL Picks (2009): 151-124-9 (+$4,235)
NFL Picks (2008): 136-125-6 (+$6,105)
NFL Picks (2007): 162-135-10 (+$3,585)
If you don’t quite understand the line, total or anything else, go to my Sports Betting FAQ.

Vegas betting action updated Dec. 30, 11:45 a.m. ET. Follow @walterfootball for updates.

Go to Week 17 NFL Picks – Late Games

Dallas Cowboys (9-6) at New York Giants (5-10)
Line: Giants by 6. Total: 38.5.
Westgate Advance Point Spread: Giants -3.
Walt’s Calculated Line: Giants -1.5.
Sunday, Dec 30, 1:00 PM

The Game. Edge: Giants.

WEEK 16 RECAP: I don’t think I’ve ever had a more frustrating Sunday. Counting the teaser win and moneyline loss – multiple people have requested that I add these to my totals, so I will do that moving forward (and make past adjustments) – I finished 6-8-2, +$45. However, at one point, I thought I was going to be up at least $1,500 for the week, including the $400 I won on the Ravens on Saturday. I was winning every wager in the early afternoon except for one: Browns -7 (5 units), Falcons +3 (5 units), Jets +3 (4 units), Patriots -14 (2 units). The only exception was the Lions +6 (3 units). My teaser (Texans +8.5, Jets +8.5) also looked like a winner.

Unfortunately, we all know what happened. Aaron Rodgers came back from down 35-20. Not only did he score what seemed like the game-winning touchdown, he also got a two-point conversion after a penalty. Then, the Jets forced overtime because of a long kickoff return. The Packers just had to win the coin toss, so they were live to cover. Rodgers threw up a helpless pass as he was getting hit on a third down, and a bogus pass interference flag was thrown. The Packers ultimately scored a touchdown to cover. And if that wasn’t enough, the Bills scored a back-door touchdown with a minute remaining to cover. It looked like I’d take a $1,670 gain into the late afternoon games, but I was barely up because of those two bad beats.

The late afternoon games sucked as well. Saints -6 was a legitimate loss, but the 49ers +4 felt like the right side. Then, on Sunday night, the Chiefs fumbled the ball twice; once to give the Seahawks seven points, and another time to take three points away from themselves. The 10-point swing may have been enough to win, and don’t get me started on that Patrick Mahomes overthrow of Travis Kelce. Ugh!

I thought I handicapped all but two games extremely well this week. It should’ve been a fantastic Week 16, but there was horrible luck. Even if the Jets had hit, I would’ve finished with a $845 profit, and I still would’ve been upset about that because of the rest of the misfortune.

My Week 17 NFL Picks will be posted all day Tuesday. Because of Christmas, I’ll be starting the Week 17 picks Tuesday afternoon and going into the evening. Follow @walterfootball for updates.

RESTED STARTERS: I call Week 16 the last real week of regular-season football. That’s because Week 17 is packed with teams resting their starters and players looking ahead to vacation. This game is a case of the former.

The Cowboys are stuck in the No. 4 seed. Absolutely nothing can change that. Thus, there’s a very real possibility that they’ll rest their starters. We saw this recently in 2016 when the Cowboys had home-field advantage clinched leading into Week 17. They played their starters for about a quarter, then they pulled them. Dallas has the same coaching staff, so I imagine we’ll see the same thing occur this time. The Cowboys will give Ezekiel Elliott five or so carries, while Dak Prescott will throw a similar number of passes. Then, it’ll be Cooper Rush and Rod Smith in the backfield.

The Giants, as a result, have a big matchup edge. Their offense should also move the ball, as I can’t imagine seeing Leighton Vander Esch, DeMarcus Lawrence and Byron Jones playing the whole game either.

RECAP: I referenced that Eagles-Cowboys game from 2016. Dallas was ahead early because of its starters. The Eagles, however, ultimately prevailed, 27-13. There’s a good chance we see a similar score in this game. The Giants have played well since the bye, so I like them to cover.

If you’re worried about the spread, don’t be. It’s quite interesting, actually, that the DVOA numbers say that the Giants should be favored by 5.5, even without factoring in the possibility of Dallas sitting its starters! That’s how overrated the Cowboys have become. I’m sure most people think they deserve to be favored in this game if Prescott and Elliott were playing the entire 60 minutes, but in the past two weeks, we’ve seen them get shut out in Indianapolis and then only beat the Buccaneers because of Jameis Winston blunders. The Buccaneers outgained the Cowboys by 150 yards and averaged more yards per play!

My point is that there’s no guarantee that the Dallas starters cover +6.5 if they play the entire game. With that in mind, I really love the Giants. Rush is terrible, so the Giants shouldn’t have any issues winning by double digits. This is a four-unit pick.

THURSDAY THOUGHTS: I thought about locking this in, but then saw that about 60 percent of the public is on Dallas. CRIS and Pinnacle both have lines at -6 -105, so there’s no indication that this line will rise. It definitely should, as the Dallas starters will be on the field for less than a half.

PICK LOCKED IN: An hour ago, I wrote, “CRIS and Pinnacle both have lines at -6 -105, so there’s no indication that this line will rise.” They both have -6 -115 now. That’s an indication the sharps have bet the Giants and that this spread will rise. I’m going to lock in -6 right now, which is available at 5Dimes, Bovada and TopBet.

SATURDAY NOTES: I’m shocked this line moved down to -5.5 on Friday (now -6 in some books.) I’m guessing it’s a reaction to Odell Beckham Jr. being out, but still. Do people think Dallas’ starters will play beyond a half?

FINAL THOUGHTS: This line is up to -7 because Ezekiel Elliott won’t play. I don’t understand why people thought he’d play in the first place. I’m glad we got -6 earlier this week. The sharps are on New York.

The Psychology. Edge: Giants.

The Cowboys will be resting their starters.

The Vegas. Edge: None.
Equal action.

Percentage of money on New York: 56% (10,000 bets)

The Trends. Edge: Cowboys.

History: Cowboys have won 8 of the last 11 meetings.

The underdog is 83-55 ATS in Cowboys games since 2010.

Opening Line: Giants -6.5.

Opening Total: 42.5.

Weather: Cloudy, 39 degrees. Light wind.

Week 17 NFL Pick: Giants 24, Cowboys 10
Giants -6 (4 Units) – Bovada/TopBet — Incorrect; -$440
Under 38.5 (0 Units) — Incorrect; $0
Cowboys 36, Giants 35

Carolina Panthers (6-9) at New Orleans Saints (13-2)
Line: Saints by 7.5. Total: 43.
Westgate Advance Point Spread: Saints -5.5.
Walt’s Calculated Line: Saints -3.5.
Sunday, Dec 30, 1:00 PM

The Game. Edge: Panthers.

My overrated-underrated feature was posted in this spot the past couple of years. I thought it would be better if there was less clutter on this page, so I set up a new NFL Overrated and Underrated Teams page that will be updated every Monday. I have three overrated and underrated teams listed there, and some may shock you!

RESTED STARTERS: Here’s yet another game where the starters won’t play. Actually, we won’t see starters for either team.

The Saints have a history of completely resting their players. I don’t think we’ll see Drew Brees, Alvin Kamara and Michael Thomas at all. The Panthers, meanwhile, will be without Cam Newton, while Ron Rivera mentioned the possibility of sitting Christian McCaffrey in this contest.

With that in mind, the Saints seemingly have an edge in the matchups, as Teddy Bridgewater is far better than Taylor Heinicke. It’s not even clear if Heinicke will even start in this game, as he suffered an elbow injury versus the Falcons. Kyle Allen may have to play, which doesn’t sound ideal.

RECAP: I don’t know what this spread will be. I can’t even give you a good guess. It could be New Orleans -1 or -3 or -6 or -7. Nothing would surprise me. I’m going to pick the Saints to win by a field goal at the moment, but let’s wait until the spread is posted and player availability is announced to make an educated pick. Check back, or follow me @walterfootball for updates.

THURSDAY THOUGHTS: Man, this spread opened at +9, but was quickly snatched up by the sharps. It’s now +7 or +7.5 in most places. That still seems like it’s way too high. The Saints will be using their backups. The last time the Saints had the No. 1 pick locked up was in 2009. Drew Brees didn’t see the field, as Mark Brunell took every snap. The Saints lost, 23-10.

Sure, Teddy Bridgewater is better than both Brunell and Kyle Allen (Carolina’s starter in this game), but Bridgewater won’t have Alvin Kamara, Mark Ingram, Michael Thomas or Ted Ginn at his disposal. The Panthers will have superior personnel on the field, so I love them to cover this extremely high number, which really should be New Orleans -4 at the very most. I’m going big with the sharps and betting five units on the Panthers. This line is still available at +7.5 for -115 juice at Bovada and TopBet, and I’m locking this in.

SATURDAY NOTES: This line went off the board in some books on Friday because of the Drew Brees news. Again, I have no idea why people expected Brees to play in the first place. This line is way too high.

FINAL THOUGHTS: This line went down to -7, and now it’s up to -7.5 even though all of the Saints’ top players are out. I don’t understand this line at all.

The Psychology. Edge: Panthers.

The Saints are resting their starters.

The Vegas. Edge: Panthers.
Action coming in on the Saints.

Percentage of money on New Orleans: 63% (9,000 bets)

The Trends. Edge: None.

History: Saints have won 5 of the last 6 meetings.

Saints are 44-33 ATS as a home favorite since 2007.

Opening Line: Saints -9.

Opening Total: 44.5.

Weather: .

Week 17 NFL Pick: Saints 20, Panthers 17
Panthers +7.5 -115 (5 Units) – Bovada/TopBet — Correct; +$500
Under 43 (0 Units) — Incorrect; $0
Panthers 33, Saints 14

New York Jets (4-11) at New England Patriots (10-5)
Line: Patriots by 13.5. Total: 45.5.
Westgate Advance Point Spread: Patriots -12.5.
Walt’s Calculated Line: Patriots -10.
Sunday, Dec 30, 1:00 PM

The Game. Edge: Patriots.

VEGAS UPDATE: I’ll be posting how the Vegas sportsbooks have done the previous week in this spot.

The highest-bet sides were 43-40-4 last season, a year that was pretty painful for the books. Perhaps the pendulum will swing the other way…

Here were the teams getting the most bets last week:

Dolphins -4

Vikings -5.5

Bears -4

Chargers -4.5

Cowboys -7

Vegas got slaughtered in Weeks 8 and 9. They finally had their revenge in Week 13, as only two of the six highly bet teams covered. Vegas continued to rake in money in Week 15, with three of the top four public sides all failing to cover. The public was 2-2-1 in Week 16.

The overall record of heavily bet teams is now 35-42-4. Here are the teams getting the most bets this week:

Eagles -6.5

Packers -7.5

Bears +5

NEW ENGLAND OFFENSE: Hooray, a game where the starters for each team will play! I should note that I’m using the word “play” loosely, given that Tom Brady and Rob Gronkowski have struggled mightily recently. Gronkowski didn’t catch any of his three passes against the Bills last week and was even responsible for an interception. Brady, meanwhile, tossed two picks, one of which was his fault. He also had another potential interception that was dropped. He certainly looked like a 41-year-old against Buffalo.

That said, there’s a big difference between throwing against the Bills and the Jets. This may surprise common fans, given that both teams have a combined nine victories, but Buffalo is fourth in pass defense DVOA, while the Jets rank in the middle of the pack. New York, of course, allowed Aaron Rodgers to torch them in the fourth quarter and overtime in a great comeback that ended up costing me four units. Brady has been struggling, but the same thing could’ve been said of Rodgers ahead of Week 16.

Meanwhile, the Patriots should continue running the ball frequently with Sony Michel. The Jets are 20th in run defense DVOA, and Michel looked great versus Buffalo. If you’re betting on the Patriots, you’ll be hoping for Michel and James White to touch the ball as much as possible because Rex Burkhead is terrible.

NEW YORK OFFENSE: Sam Darnold had a terrific performance last week. He shredded Green Bay’s anemic defense and should’ve led his team to victory over the Packers. He made just a couple of mistakes, as he had an interception dropped and missed a receiver for a touchdown at the very end of regulation, which forced the game to overtime.

I imagine Darnold will make many more mistakes in this game. He’ll be playing on the road against a better, healthier defense. The Patriots don’t have great personnel, but they have Bill Belichick to confuse an inexperienced quarterback. Belichick is a perfect 25-0 against quarterbacks 25 or younger at home. This is also the first time Darnold will see his defense. Belichick will have some tricks up his sleeve for Darnold.

It would help Darnold if he had a viable ground attack to take some pressure off him, but Elijah McGuire is a sub-par back. He had a great matchup last week against a Green Bay team missing its entire starting defensive line, but he barely picked up any yardage. The Patriots have been weak to the run, but I don’t think McGuire will be able to take advantage of that.

RECAP: Week 17 isn’t a real week of football. There are special things to look out for. One is teams giving up on lame-duck coaches.

This is something I’ve tracked for a while. Teams that know their head coach will get fired often show up very flat in Week 17. Why should the Jets try when they know Todd Bowles won’t be around next year? I don’t think they’ll be very focused, especially when considering that they’re coming off a tiring overtime game against the Packers.

The Patriots were in position to cover last week before the Bills scored with a minute remaining in regulation. Here’s to hoping that doesn’t happen again because I’m betting on New England. This will be a three-unit wager, as the Patriots have both matchup and motivational edges in this game.

THURSDAY THOUGHTS: It sounds like the Jets won’t have Quincy Enunwa or Jermaine Kearse in this game, so Sam Darnold’s options will be severely limited. Bill Belichick is great at erasing one aspect of an opposing offense, so when he takes Robby Anderson away, who’s Darnold going to throw to?

SATURDAY NOTES: Quincy Enunwa and Jermaine Kearse are both out. This will make moving the ball very problematic for the Jets. The Patriots surely look like the right side. This spread is looking like it’s moving up – it’s -13.5 -110 only at Bovada and TopBet – so I’m going to lock this in now and add a fourth unit.

FINAL THOUGHTS: This spread has moved up to New England -14. I’m glad we got the Patriots -13.5 on Saturday. The Jets are going to be without two of their cornerbacks, as Trumaine Johnson missed meetings. The Jets are a mess under Todd Bowles.

The Psychology. Edge: Patriots.

The Jets won’t be playing for a lame-duck coach, and they’re coming off an overtime game.

The Vegas. Edge: None.
Equal action.

Percentage of money on New England: 55% (20,000 bets)

The Trends. Edge: Patriots.

History: Patriots have won 26 of the last 32 meetings.

Patriots are 56-41 ATS vs. AFC East opponents since 2001.

Patriots are 39-18 ATS in December & January home games since 2000.

Patriots are 13-3 ATS in Week 17 since 2001.

Tom Brady is 232-73 as a starter (172-119 ATS).

Tom Brady is 35-35 ATS as a home favorite of -9 or more (24-28 ATS since November 2007).

Opening Line: Patriots -13.

Opening Total: 48.

Weather: .

Week 17 NFL Pick: Patriots 34, Jets 17
Patriots -13.5 (4 Units) – Bovada/TopBet — Correct; +$400
Over 45.5 (0 Units) — Incorrect; $0
Patriots 38, Jets 3

Detroit Lions (5-10) at Green Bay Packers (6-8-1)
Line: Packers by 7.5. Total: 44.5.
Westgate Advance Point Spread: No Line (Rodgers).
Walt’s Calculated Line: Packers -7.
Sunday, Dec 30, 1:00 PM

The Game. Edge: Packers.

HATE MAIL: I will be posting hate mail here. This is from an incredibly stupid person:

This guy was so desperate to make fun of me that he didn’t even read the guy’s post. As a result, he went against our Chiefs-Seahawks over pick, which turned out to be right. What a moron!

I’ve had only a couple of terrible weeks this year. Here’s someone who pointed out my losses even though most of them were the result of getting Ravens -9 instead of -7.5:

This genius seems to think that “Big Ben off a loss” is a recipe for making easy money. Yet, going into the game in question, Ben Roethlisberger was just 2-2 against the spread on the year following a loss. Derp dee derp!

I’m not the only one who gets hate:

I truly don’t understand why losers like Blue Coffee are so negative. Blue Coffee is probably some spoiled rich kid living in his parents’ basement because he couldn’t turn his poetry degree from college into a meaningful job. That’s why he’s so miserable. He needs to criticize others to make him feel better about himself.

Remember that whenever you see a miserable person like this on a comment board, Twitter or Reddit: Odds are, they are just some spoiled rich kid who needs to validate himself because his existence is utterly worthless.

GREEN BAY OFFENSE: To my chagrin, Aaron Rodgers engineered a miraculous comeback against the Jets. Rodgers was able to benefit from two absolutely bogus pass interference calls in overtime – apparently, defenders now get flagged if a receiver slips on his own – but Rodgers was still great. Perhaps he’s finally close to 100 percent after struggling with various leg injuries all year.

Rodgers should be able to parlay his success versus the Jets into a terrific performance against the Lions. No team is worse than Detroit against the pass as far as DVOA is concerned, and that number was calculated even before the Lions allowed the mediocre Kirk Cousins to torch them. The Lions have Darius Slay to slow down Davante Adams a bit, but the rest of their secondary is abysmal.

The one thing the Lions can do well on this side of the ball is stop the run. They’ve been much better in that department ever since they traded for Snacks Harrison. The Packers won’t run well with Jamaal Williams, but we’ve seen Rodgers succeed in the past without the assistance of a ground attack, especially if he’s battling a team that can’t cover his receivers.

DETROIT OFFENSE: I’d compare watching the Lions’ offense to sitting in a dentist’s chair for three hours. It’s miserable. I’m sorry if I’m coming off sounding like an anti-dentite, but I just call it like I see it.

The problems started when the Lions traded Golden Tate. Matthew Stafford lost his most reliable weapon. Stafford took lots of sacks in games after that, and all the hits he endured undoubtedly led him to suffer a back injury, which has hindered him throughout this month. Stafford has seldom thrown deep in recent weeks, and that was the case against the Vikings. Detroit had plenty of failed third-down opportunities because the Lions either ran the ball up the middle or had Stafford check down.

There was a glimmer of hope things would improve if Kerryon Johnson could return from injury, but Johnson has been ruled out for the year. The Lions, as a result, won’t be able to take advantage of Green Bay’s injury-ravaged defensive line. I’m sure they’ll continue to feed the ball to LeGarrette Blount more often than Zach Zenner, which is not a colossal mistake if the Lions truly desire to lose in order to preserve their draft status. Blount wastes a down every time he catches the ball. The Lions would truly be better off kneeling down rather than giving Blount carries, and I’m not even joking.

RECAP: There’s some concern with the Packers coming off a grueling overtime comeback victory against the Jets. They could be fatigued, and that may affect their play in this game.

That said, I’m still picking the Packers to cover. Stafford hasn’t been the same since injuring his back, and Kerryon Johnson’s absence has really hurt the team. Plus, my rule with the Lions applies: Pick them when they’re playing a bad team; go against them when they’re playing a good team. The Packers are 18th in adjusted DVOA, so I can’t say for certain if they’re a good team, but Rodgers’ comeback last week gives them a good chance of being one.

Either way, I’m not betting this game. This spread is a touch too high, and I worry about the Packers’ energy following that overtime victory.

THURSDAY THOUGHTS: Davante Adams and Equanimeous St. Brown have yet to practice this week, which does not bode well for Green Bay bettors. I’d be on the Lions if Matthew Stafford were remotely healthy.

SATURDAY NOTES: It sounds like Davante Adams has a legitimate chance of playing, which is a nice boost for Packer bettors. Jaire Alexander might be out, but considering that an injured Matthew Stafford can’t attack downfield, it shouldn’t matter too much.

FINAL THOUGHTS: The Packers won’t have Davante Adams, but the Lions are missing Kenny Golladay. I think this is worse for the Lions, as Matthew Stafford is down to zero play-makers. Perhaps this is why the sharps bet Green Bay this morning.

The Psychology. Edge: None.
No edge found.

The Vegas. Edge: Lions.

Lots of action on the Packers.

Percentage of money on Green Bay: 68% (8,000 bets)

The Trends. Edge: Packers.

History: Packers have won 19 of the last 26 meetings.

Lions are 20-7 ATS on the road after a home loss of 10+.

Matthew Stafford is 14-25 ATS in December and January.

Packers are 32-18 ATS in December home games since 2000.

Packers are 40-28 ATS at home since 2010.

Packers are 46-28 ATS in divisional games since 2006.

Aaron Rodgers is 87-60 ATS since 2009.

Opening Line: Packers -7.

Opening Total: 44.

Weather: Partly cloudy, 29 degrees. Mild wind, 16 mph.

Week 17 NFL Pick: Packers 30, Lions 20
Packers -7.5 (0 Units) — Incorrect; $0
Over 44.5 (0 Units) — Incorrect; $0
Lions 31, Packers 0

Jacksonville Jaguars (5-10) at Houston Texans (10-5)
Line: Texans by 7. Total: 39.5.
Westgate Advance Point Spread: Texans -7.
Walt’s Calculated Line: Texans -10.5.
Sunday, Dec 30, 1:00 PM

The Game. Edge: Texans.

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HOUSTON OFFENSE: The Texans are still playing for a No. 2 seed, so their starters will be on the field the entire game unless there’s word that the Patriots are absolutely crushing the Jets, which is a very real possibility.

With that in mind, the Texans will need to figure out how to block Jacksonville’s defensive line. The Jaguars haven’t shown the same intensity on this side of the ball this year, but they came alive last week and swarmed Ryan Tannehill. They tallied three sacks, but they hit him frequently. One hit even resulted in the game-clinching pick-six. With that in mind, Deshaun Watson may struggle to keep drives going. Houston has one of the worst offensive lines in the NFL, and Watson is frequently guilty of holding on to the ball too long in the pocket.

Making matters worse for the Texans, they’ve lost their newest No. 2 receiver, Demaryius Thomas. Watson had both DeAndre Hopkins and Will Fuller available the first time he battled the Jaguars. Fuller is long gone, and Thomas won’t be available either. The Jaguars still have excellent cornerbacks, so throwing to anyone not named Hopkins could be difficult. Hopkins, of course, has a very tough matchup against Jalen Ramsey, but he’s too good to be completely shut out.

JACKSONVILLE OFFENSE: It hasn’t been announced yet who will start at quarterback for the Jaguars. Cody Kessler continued to be awful last week. He suffered an injury and left the game temporarily. He returned, but then exited for good for what seemed like performance reasons. Blake Bortles helped win the game, ruining Jacksonville’s draft positioning in the process. It’s amazing that Bortles continues to be a problem even when benched.

Despite Bortles’ incompetence, he’s the better quarterback. He may not care about his professional career enough to study film, but he has a big arm and can run around. Kessler, on the other hand, doesn’t have enough arm strength to complete basic passes. Thus, one quarterback will be able to take advantage of the Houston secondary, which saw three defensive backs suffer injuries last week. It’s unclear if Kayvon Webster, Kareem Jackson and Johnathan Joseph will be able to play, but if at least two of them are sidelined, it could be problematic.

Then again, Bortles may not have a chance to attack the Texans with deep shots because of shoddy protection. The Jaguars are missing four offensive linemen, so being unable to pass protect against J.J. Watt and Jadeveon Clowney is a very real problem. The horrible blocking is also why Leonard Fournette has struggled lately. The Texans are a top-five team against the run, so I can’t see Fournette having much success.

RECAP: There are some major questions as to who will play in this game. I mentioned the three Houston corners having unclear statuses. I’m interested to see if they’ll suit up. Also, whether Bortles will start or not will affect my pick.

I never thought I’d say this, but I’m picking the Jaguars if Bortles starts. Bortles sucks at football, but that just goes to show how awful Kessler is. Kessler gives the Jaguars no chance against a great defense. Bortles, on the other hand, can at least run around and challenge a possibly injury-ravaged secondary with his big arm. Bortles often checks down, but may change his strategy in this game because he’s auditioning for a contract. He’ll need to be paid if he wants to continue wasting his football career by partying every night.

I’m on the Texans if Kessler starts and Jaguars if Bortles is given the nod. I’m not sure if I’ll be betting this game yet, so check back once some announcements are made.

THURSDAY THOUGHTS: I’m going to switch my pick to the Texans if Leonard Fournette is ruled out. Blake Bortles is starting, but Fournette has yet to practice this week. We’ll find out Fournette’s status Friday.

SATURDAY NOTES: Leonard Fournette is listed as doubtful. The Jaguars won’t have any sort of running game, which means Blake Bortles will have to throw into a secondary that is healthier than first anticipated. As promised, I’m making a pick change, and I may even bet Houston for a unit or two come Sunday morning.

FINAL THOUGHTS: I’m not going to bet this game. I considered it, but the sharps are betting the Jaguars. I was already iffy on this game, so I don’t want to bet it.

The Psychology. Edge: None.
No edge found.

The Vegas. Edge: Jaguars.

Action coming in on the Texans.

Percentage of money on Houston: 70% (12,000 bets)

The Trends. Edge: None.

History: Texans have won 12 of the last 16 meetings.

Opening Line: Texans -8.5.

Opening Total: 40.

Weather: Dome.

Week 17 NFL Pick: Texans 27, Jaguars 17
Texans -7 (0 Units) — Correct; $0
Over 39.5 (0 Units) — Incorrect; $0
Texans 20, Jaguars 3

Atlanta Falcons (6-9) at Tampa Bay Buccaneers (5-10)
Line: Falcons by 2. Total: 51.5.
Westgate Advance Point Spread: Falcons -2.5.
Walt’s Calculated Line: Buccaneers -1.
Sunday, Dec 30, 1:00 PM

The Game. Edge: Falcons.

I wouldn’t say my weekly random NFL notes cluttered these picks pages, so I’ll keep them here. What I’m also going to do is store all of them in a Random NFL Notes section so that you can go back and read previous entries in the future.

Some random NFL notes I can’t put anywhere else:

1. This is something I mentioned on the WF Podcast: My condolences to Facebook friend Chris W., who lost his fantasy football playoff semi-final because of Drew Brees kneel-downs. I repeat: He lost in the fantasy playoffs because Brees knelt down on the final plays of the Panthers game. The minus-1 rushing yard did him in.

Chris W. says he won’t play fantasy football in 2019, and I don’t blame him. While there is obviously lots of skill involved in fantasy football, there’s a huge luck factor as well. Case in point: One year, in one of my big-money leagues, I was the highest scorer in the entire league, yet I didn’t make the playoffs. I constantly had the second-highest score every week, yet always lost to the highest scorer. I’d always lose by something like 130-125, while all of the other scores were 85-80 and such. It was incredibly frustrating.

Also, don’t forget the injuries. I’m in three big-money leagues. I reached the semi-final in two of them. I didn’t even make the playoffs in the third. Why? I lost almost all my non-receivers to injury. My starting quarterback (Jimmy Garoppolo) and all my running backs got hurt, so I couldn’t be competitive.

This is why I’m a big proponent of DFS. I like fantasy, but I believe DFS is vastly superior. Luck obviously plays a factor there as well, but if all your players suffer injuries, you can just try again the following week (or the following day if you’re doing NBA.)

My user name on Draft Kings, by the way, is Walterfootball, so feel free to challenge me to a contest. If I see the e-mail, I won’t decline (unless it’s for a stupid sport like soccer.)

2. Speaking of fantasy football, I’d like to see one adjustment made to defensive scoring: I believe intentional grounding penalties should count as much as sacks do.

It’s very frustrating to see your fantasy defense nearly sack a quarterback, but then the signal-caller throws it into the ground and gets flagged for doing so. You don’t get any points for this, which seems bogus to me. The defense forced a negative-yardage play and a loss of down. That’s exactly what a sack is. So, why are sacks rewarded, while intentional grounding penalties aren’t?

I don’t know if ESPN, CBS, NFL.com, etc. even have that as an option. If they do, I highly recommend suggesting this rule adjustment to your commissioner.

3. Several years ago – probably closer to a decade – I received a phone call from the first advertising company I ever worked with. It was from my contact over there, Andy, who was a nice guy. However, he was always overly cautious. I’ll never forget what he said to me that afternoon:

“You might want to think about canceling your picks page because I don’t know if our advertisers will like that you give out gambling advice.”

I told him I wasn’t going to cancel my picks page, and he sounded disappointed. It’s a good thing I didn’t listen to him!

I’m bringing this up now because I saw something on CBS’ score tracker last week that amazed me. Here’s the picture:

CBS has been posting the lines for a while, but they’re now doing the moneyline as well! How awesome is that? I love that big-media companies are embracing sports betting. I think it’s a great sign that we’ll soon have sports wagering legalized in almost every state. I’m sure New York will hold out because of the massive corruption they have there, but I believe we’ll have sports betting available almost everywhere in this country in less than a decade.

TAMPA BAY OFFENSE: It’s unclear if the Buccaneers plan on firing Dirk Koetter, though I imagine that they will. If Koetter goes, Jameis Winston may depart as well. It could be argued that Winston deserves one more chance with better coaching and superior blocking, but the fact remains that he’s an idiot both on and off the field. Winston’s off-field conduct has been widely publicized. As for his actual play, he was responsible for a fumble returned for a touchdown and not one, but two delay-of-game penalties on fourth down at Dallas last week. Winston is a bozo.

That said, Winston has a great matchup in this game. The Falcons have been better against the run lately because of Deion Jones’ return, but their secondary continues to be an issue. They’re 29th in pass defense DVOA, so it’s not any sort of surprise that Taylor Heinicke shredded Atlanta in between the 20s last week. If the Panthers didn’t commit multiple blunders in the red zone last week, they may have beaten the Falcons, which would’ve been an ultimate disgrace for Atlanta, considering who Carolina’s quarterback was.

That said, while the Buccaneers will move the chains well, there’s no guarantee that they’ll be able to convert in the red zone. This has been a major problem for Tampa Bay all year, and I don’t see why it would suddenly change.

ATLANTA OFFENSE: The Buccaneers have the same issues the Falcons do defensively, except they’re worse against the run. Their secondary has been an abomination all year, and so they’ll struggle to contain Matt Ryan and all of his weapons. Ryan hit Calvin Ridley and Mohamed Sanu for long touchdowns last week, and he seems poised to do the same thing to Tampa. Perhaps Julio Jones will be the recipient of deep bombs this week, as the Buccaneers have no one capable of slowing him down.

As mentioned, the Buccaneers are worse against the run than the Falcons are now with Deion Jones on the field again. The Falcons don’t run all that well for the most part, but they’ve gashed opponents with poor ground defenses in recent weeks. Tevin Coleman ran all over the Cardinals, while Coleman and Brian Hill had success against a Kawann Short-less Carolina defense.

The only thing the Buccaneers do well on this side of the ball is rush the passer with Gerald McCoy and Jason Pierre-Paul. Atlanta’s offensive line hasn’t been the same this year as in past seasons, but it’s still a fairly decent blocking unit. It should keep Ryan protected well enough for him to hit his talented receivers with downfield shots.

RECAP: The Falcons and Buccaneers have similar strengths and weaknesses, except Atlanta is a better version of Tampa. Perhaps this is because the Falcons’ quarterback knows how to count down backward to zero. That seems like an important trait for a quarterback.

While it’s unclear if Winston will be Tampa’s starter next year, I’m confident that Koetter is on his way out. As mentioned earlier, I like betting against teams playing for lame-duck coaches in Week 17. I imagine the Buccaneers will be complacent, as they surely know that they won’t need to impress Koetter.

Given that, as well as the slight spread value we’re getting with the visitor – the advance line was Atlanta -2.5 – this is going to be a three-unit wager on the Falcons.

THURSDAY THOUGHTS: There’s been talk that the Buccaneers will be giving Ryan Griffin some work this week. This is an indication that Tampa won’t be using its ideal lineup, which gives the Falcons an even greater edge. The market has reacted, with this line moving from Tampa Bay -1 to Atlanta -1 or -1.5. The sharps are betting the Falcons, and I fear as though they could carry this spread to -3, so I’m going to lock this in now and increase my wager to four units. I’m selling half a point to get to Atlanta -2 +100 at Bookmaker.

SATURDAY NOTES: This line has risen to -2 or -2.5, so you still have a good opportunity to bet the Falcons as long as they don’t hit -3. The Buccaneers won’t be playing hard for their lame-duck coach or third-string quarterback.

FINAL THOUGHTS: Sharp action continues to push this line up, as it’s now Atlanta -2.5 -120. It doesn’t look like the books want to go to -3.

The Psychology. Edge: Falcons.

The Buccaneers won’t be playing hard for a lame-duck coach.

The Vegas. Edge: Buccaneers.
Sharp money on the Falcons.

Percentage of money on Atlanta: 63% (8,000 bets)

The Trends. Edge: Falcons.

History: Falcons have won the last 4 meetings.

Road Team is 89-57 ATS in Buccaneers games since 2009.

Buccaneers are 24-50 ATS at home in the previous 74 instances.

Buccaneers are 9-26 ATS as a home underdog since 2009.

Opening Line: Pick.

Opening Total: 49.5.

Weather: Cloudy, 77 degrees. Light wind.

Week 17 NFL Pick: Falcons 27, Buccaneers 20
Falcons -2 +100 (4 Units) – Bookmaker — Push; $0
Under 51.5 (0 Units) — Incorrect; $0
Falcons 34, Buccaneers 32

Miami Dolphins (7-8) at Buffalo Bills (5-10)
Line: Bills by 5.5. Total: 39.5.
Westgate Advance Point Spread: Bills -3.
Walt’s Calculated Line: Bills -6.
Sunday, Dec 30, 1:00 PM

The Game. Edge: Bills.

As with the random NFL notes, I’m going to have all of my Random College Football Notes on one page as well. Oh, and you can find my College Football Picks here.

Random College Football Notes:

1. I’ve been wanting to rant about this all year, but it kept slipping my mind. Well, better late than never. I want you to look at the score graphic of this picture. Quickly, tell me what quarter it is:

If you studied this for more than 10 seconds, you know that it’s the second quarter. However, if you just glanced at it for a second, you might think that it’s the first quarter. That’s because the “1st” is right below the time. If you’re not paying attention, it looks like there’s 2:55 remaining in the first quarter!

Maybe I’m just slow, but this has gotten me a few times this year. And it’s pissed me off repeatedly. If you display a time, why not put the quarter next to the time? Doesn’t that make sense? Why would ESPN separate the time and the quarter like that?

The easy solution would be to switch the “2nd … 18” with the “1st & 10.” The better solution would be to fire almost everyone at ESPN for utter incompetence, but we can only dream, right?

2. I can’t remember which game it was earlier this season when one team made a huge play, but the play was negated by penalty. A player was called for being an ineligible man downfield, since, as the stupid-looking official put it, “he was covered up.”

I think I speak for everyone when I say that dumb procedural penalties like this need to go away. It doesn’t benefit the game in any way, and it ruins great plays. I’d be up for making the rules more lenient. Stuff like this makes the game more frustrating, and it opens up opportunities for officials to nullify big plays in order to sway the spread in one direction or another. And believe me, this happens very often.

3. With the college football playoffs soon under way, this is a reminder to be careful what you wish for. A couple of years ago, Washington fans made it known that they wanted their team to take on Alabama in the playoffs. The Tide, of course, obliterated the Huskies. It was fun to look back at this point in time to see what the Washington fans were thinking. Here was a live shot:

BUFFALO OFFENSE: I’m curious to see what the Bills do this offseason. They have a great talent in Josh Allen, but he’s raw and doesn’t have any play-makers around him. His receivers dropped six passes in last week’s loss, including two potential touchdowns by Robert Foster. I’d like to say things will definitely improve this week, but I’d be lying. Foster and Zay Jones are not viable starting NFL receivers.

Luckily for the Bills, they won’t have to throw very much on the Dolphins. Miami has one of the worst run defenses in the NFL. LeSean McCoy and Keith Ford will have success moving the chains on the ground, but Allen will likely pick up the most rushing yards again. Allen may be raw as a passer, but he’s an excellent scrambler, and I don’t see the Dolphins slowing him down. Allen ran for 135 yards in the first matchup against Miami.

MIAMI OFFENSE: This is likely Ryan Tannehill’s final game as Miami’s starting quarterback. If so, I think I can speak for the fans when I say good riddance. Tannehill has been halfway decent at times as a member of the Dolphins, but he’s never taken the next step, and he’s had too many dud performances in big games. Last week was very telling, as Tannehill scored just seven points against the Jaguars. He heaved a horrible pick-six to give Jacksonville the victory.

Tannehill wasn’t very good to begin with, and he’s not healthy either. He’s been bothered by an ankle injury, so I can’t see him having much success against an elite Buffalo aerial defense that is ranked second in DVOA.

The Bills are weaker against the run, but they’re ranked in the middle of the pack in that regard. The Dolphins can’t seem to commit to one running back anyway. They’ve gone back and forth between Kalen Ballage and Kenyan Drake in the wake of Frank Gore’s injury, and neither one has been success, outside of Ballage’s long run at Minnesota.

RECAP: I have to question Miami’s motivation in this game. The Dolphins were just eliminated from the playoffs in the wake of their loss to the Jaguars. They had high hopes several weeks ago, but now suddenly have nothing to play for. Likely deflated, the Dolphins have to travel up north to play a very cold game against the Bills. It’s projected to be 27 degrees in Buffalo, so I can’t imagine the Dolphins wanting to be there. Plus, it’s not like the Dolphins owe the Bills revenge, or anything. They beat Buffalo back in Week 13.

That game, by the way, was bizarre. The Bills lost by four, but they legitimately outgained the Dolphins, 415-175, and averaged nearly three more yards per play. The Bills made some killer mistakes, which is why they lost. The Dolphins will likely make the blunders this time, as Buffalo is a young, enthusiastic team that has some high hopes for 2019 with Allen having more experience. The Dolphins, conversely, seem lost, as they don’t know who will quarterback their team next year.

Not only do the Bills have the motivational edge, they’re the better team. They’re also healthier, as their defense will shut down Miami’s injured quarterback. And to top it off, this spread seems short. The number is -3.5, yet I made this line -6. Per the adjusted DVOA numbers, this line should Buffalo -5.5. Either way, we’re getting some nice spread value with the host.

With all that in mind, I absolutely love the Bills. They’re one of my top picks this week, as I’ll be wagering five units on them.

THURSDAY THOUGHTS: I love this game, and so do the sharps, as they moved this spread from -3.5 to -4.5. This sucks, but I still want to bet five units on the Bills. I have a feeling this spread will continue to push upward, as CRIS has -4.5 -115 posted, so it wouldn’t surprise me if this line hit -6, given the crazy amount of professional money on the host. If I see this line creeping up any further, I’ll lock this in. I just think that waiting on a possible -4 is worth it.

FRIDAY UPDATE: So much for getting -4 again! The sharps continued to pound the Bills up to -6. It’s -5.5 -120 in some books. Luckily, TopBet still has -5.5 -110 available, so I’m going to lock that in for five units.

SATURDAY NOTES: I locked this in Friday afternoon. Buffalo at -5.5 would still be a five-unit pick. The line at -6 would likely be a four-unit selection, though I’d try to buy down to -5.5 at -120 or less if it moved up. You can still get -5.5 -110 though.

FINAL THOUGHTS: This line is back up to Buffalo -5.5. There’s a ton of professional money on the Bills, and understandably so. The Dolphins will probably be a no-show, as they’re down a couple of starting defensive backs.

The Psychology. Edge: None.
No edge found.

The Vegas. Edge: Dolphins.

Sharp action on the Bills.

Percentage of money on Buffalo: 65% (9,000 bets)

The Trends. Edge: Dolphins.

History: Bills have won 7 of the last 11 meetings.

Underdog is 85-61 ATS in the Dolphins’ last 146 games.

Dolphins are 23-11 ATS as a road underdog of less than 5 since 2008.

Bills are 20-11 ATS after playing the New England Patriots since 1999.

Opening Line: Bills -3.5.

Opening Total: 38.5.

Weather: Cloudy, 32 degrees. Mild wind, 15 mph.

Week 17 NFL Pick: Bills 24, Dolphins 10
Bills -5.5 (5 Units) – TopBet — Correct; +$500
Under 39.5 (0 Units) — Incorrect; $0
Bills 42, Dolphins 17

Week 17 NFL Picks – Late Games
Oakland at Kansas City, Philadelphia at Washington, Cleveland at Baltimore, LA Chargers at Denver, San Francisco at LA Rams, Arizona at Seattle, Chicago at Minnesota, Cincinnati at Pittsburgh, Indianapolis at Tennessee

Prop/Teaser/Parlay Picks
A list of some of my favorite team/player prop picks this week
(Offense & defensive ROY picks to be counted whenever winners are announced.) Picks carried over on a week-to-week basis will be in black.

Prop/teaser/parlay picks posted in Week 17 NFL Picks – Late Games

2024 NFL Mock Draft - April 16

NFL Power Rankings - Feb. 22

Fantasy Football Rankings - Feb. 19

NFL Picks - Feb. 12

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Last Week's NFL Picks Against The Spread (Week 18, 2023): 10-6 (-$415)
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Last Week Over-Under (Week 18, 2023): 7-9 ($0)
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2023 NFL Picks of the Month: 1-4, 20.0% (-$2,480)

2023 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 137-135-7, 50.4% (-$7,735)
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1999 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 27-41-3 (39.7%)
2000 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 128-123-8 (51.0%)
2001 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 127-122-7 (51.0%)
2002 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 123-136-7 (47.5%)
2003 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 146-126-8 (53.7%)
2004 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 157-123-8 (56.1%)
2005 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 156-126-11 (55.3%)
2006 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 151-135-9 (52.8%)
2007 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 162-135-10, 54.5% (+$3,585)
2008 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 148-140-7, 51.4% (+$6,105)
2009 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 151-124-9, 54.9% (+$4,235)
2010 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 144-131-8, 52.4% (+$5,880)
2011 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 137-133-12, 50.7% (-$1,335)
2012 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 130-145-8, 47.3% (-$7,445)
2013 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 144-131-8, 52.4% (+$7,825)
2014 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 143-133-7, 51.8% (-$1,885)
2015 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 134-138-12, 49.3% (-$3,215)
2016 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 148-127-10, 53.8% (+$780)
2017 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 137-140-8, 49.5% (-$4,300)
2018 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 140-134-14, 51.3% (+$845)
2019 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 149-128-9, 53.6% (+$1,200)
2020 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 138-124-7, 52.7% (+$9,350)
2021 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 153-141-2, 51.9% (+$210)
2022 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 154-134-8, 53.5% (+$9,860)

2002 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 41-49-2 (45.6%)
2003 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 52-51-2 (50.5%)
2004 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 65-44-3 (59.6%)
2005 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 77-61-1 (55.8%)
2006 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 65-61-4 (51.6%)
2007 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 83-59-5, 58.5% (+$4,110)
2008 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 44-57-3, 43.6% (-$3,510)
2009 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 49-35-3, 58.3% (+$2,260)
2010 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 51-38-4, 57.3% (+$3,180)
2011 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 44-51-3, 46.3% (-$2,715)
2012 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 45-50-2, 47.4% (-$2,130)
2013 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 38-42, 47.5% (-$2,890)
2015 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 47-44-1, 51.6% (-$820)
2016 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 42-35-3, 54.5% (+$475)
2017 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 32-40-3, 43.8% (-$2,395)
2018 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 52-41-2, 55.9% (+$2,670)
2019 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 44-36-2, 55.0% (+$655)
2020 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 47-43-3, 52.2% (-$1,965)
2021 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 50-50, 50.0% (-$1,570)
2022 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 56-44-2, 56.0% (+$1,860)

2002 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 11-12 (47.8%)
2003 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 16-13-1 (55.2%)
2004 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 18-11 (62.1%)
2005 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 25-22-1 (53.2%)
2006 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 21-29-1 (42.0%)
2007 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 35-30-2, 53.8% (+$420)
2008 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 39-26-2, 60.0% (+$4,055)
2009 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 29-26, 52.7% (+$330)
2010 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 32-22, 59.3% (+$4,790)
2011 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 14-14, 50.0% (-$1,260)
2012 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 14-21, 40.0% (-$3,650)
2013 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 17-9-3, 65.4% (+$2,970)
2015 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 17-16-2, 51.5% (-$1,120)
2016 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 21-22-5, 48.8% (-$1,465)
2017 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 20-22-1, 47.6% (-$1,595)
2018 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 27-32-1, 45.8% (-$4,735)
2019 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 37-27-2, 57.8% (+$2,185)
2020 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 37-22-1, 62.7% (+$5,515)
2021 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 32-32-1, 50.0% (-$725)
2022 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 41-30-1, 57.8% (+$3,725)

2001 Season Over-Under: 3-2 (60.0%)
2002 Season Over-Under: 121-91-3 (57.1%)
2003 Season Over-Under: 126-132-2 (48.8%)
2004 Season Over-Under: 139-124-4 (52.9%)
2005 Season Over-Under: 117-145-4 (44.7%)
2006 Season Over-Under: 129-132-5 (49.4%)
2007 Season Over-Under: 136-145-3, 48.4% (-$1,900)
2008 Season Over-Under: 137-125-6, 52.3% (+$860)
2009 Season Over-Under: 128-135-4, 48.7% (-$3,195)
2010 Season Over-Under: 128-135-5, 48.7% (-$5)
2011 Season Over-Under: 131-131-5, 50.0% (+$135)
2012 Season Over-Under: 125-121-5, 50.8% (+$30)
2013 Season Over-Under: 132-130-5, 50.4% (-$340)
2015 Season Over-Under: 143-119-5, 54.6% ($0)
2016 Season Over-Under: 123-141-1, 46.6% (+$95)
2017 Season Over-Under: 136-139-2, 49.5% (+$640)
2018 Season Over-Under: 118-128-3, 48.0% (-$225)
2019 Season Over-Under: 126-133-4, 48.6% (-$50)
2020 Season Over-Under: 141-122-6, 53.6% ($0)
2021 Season Over-Under: 132-151-3, 46.6% ($0)
2022 Season Over-Under: 133-149-2, 47.2% (-$225)

2007 Season Prop/ML/Teaser/Parlay Picks: +$1,035
2008 Season Prop/ML/Teaser/Parlay Picks: +$1,775
2009 Season Prop/ML/Teaser/Parlay Picks: +$865
2010 Season Prop/ML/Teaser/Parlay Picks: -$200
2011 Season Prop/ML/Teaser/Parlay Picks: +$590
2012 Season Prop/ML/Teaser/Parlay Picks: -$1,685
2013 Season Prop/ML/Teaser/Parlay Picks: +$2,245
2015 Season Prop/ML/Teaser/Parlay Picks: -$855
2016 Season Prop/ML/Teaser/Parlay Picks: -$275
2017 Season Prop/ML/Teaser/Parlay Picks: -$510
2018 Season Prop/ML/Teaser/Parlay Picks: +$1,495
2019 Season Prop/ML/Teaser/Parlay Picks: -$1,715
2020 Season Prop/ML/Teaser/Parlay Picks: +$4,975
2021 Season Prop/ML/Teaser/Parlay Picks: +$3,455
2022 Season Prop/ML/Teaser/Parlay Picks: +$5,720

2006 NFL Picks of the Month: 3-3 (50%)
2007 NFL Picks of the Month: 3-3, 50.0% (-$400)
2008 NFL Picks of the Month: 6-1, 85.7% (+$3,720)
2009 NFL Picks of the Month: 3-2, 60.0% (+$640)
2010 NFL Picks of the Month: 2-4, 33.3% (-$1,810)
2011 NFL Picks of the Month: 5-2, 71.4% (+$1,870)
2012 NFL Picks of the Month: 3-2, 60.0% (+$560)
2013 NFL Picks of the Month: 6-0, 100% (+$3,900)
2014 NFL Picks of the Month: 2-4, 33.3% (-$1,350)
2015 NFL Picks of the Month: 3-3, 50.0% (-$100)
2016 NFL Picks of the Month: 5-1, 83.3% (+$2,780)
2017 NFL Picks of the Month: 4-2, 66.7% (+$1,040)
2018 NFL Picks of the Month: 4-3, 57.1% (-$640)
2019 NFL Picks of the Month: 3-3-1, 50.0% (-$625)
2020 NFL Picks of the Month: 3-2, 60.0% (+$665)
2021 NFL Picks of the Month: 2-3, 40.0% (-$920)
2022 NFL Picks of the Month: 3-4, 42.9% (-$1,615)

Career NFL Picks Against The Spread: 3,420-3,152-195, 52.1% (+$21,170)
Career 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 1,106-983-56 (52.9%)
Career 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 549-485-25 (53.1%)
Career Over-Under: 2,853-2,829-74 (50.3%)
Career Second-Half NFL Picks: 23-16-1 (59.0%)
Career NFL Picks of the Month: 46-34-1 (57.5t%)

My Team-by-Team ATS Record
This section shows how well I do when picking each team this year. The purpose is to see how well I read each team. Pushes are not displayed. Winning/losing streak in parentheses.

Cowboys: 8-9	Bears: 11-4	Bucs: 6-11	49ers: 10-7
Eagles: 7-7	Lions: 9-8	Falcons: 8-9	Cardinals: 8-9
Giants: 7-9	Packers: 5-12	Panthers: 8-9	Rams: 8-9
Redskins: 14-3	Vikings: 6-9	Saints: 10-7	Seahawks: 7-9

Bills: 9-7	Bengals: 12-5	Colts: 7-10	Broncos: 9-6
Dolphins: 6-11	Browns: 11-5	Jaguars: 13-4	Chargers: 8-9
Jets: 8-9	Ravens: 11-6	Texans: 5-12	Chiefs: 5-10
Patriots: 7-9	Steelers: 11-6	Titans: 9-8	Raiders: 6-9

Divisional: 50-35 (2011-22: 558-526)	2x Game Edge: 36-24 (2011-22: 363-361)	2x Motivation Edge: 32-36 (2011-22: 478-405)	2x Spread Edge: 41-40 (2011-22: 197-168)
2x Vegas Edge: 41-38 (2011-22: 407-406)	2x Trend Edge: 15-13 (2011-22: 306-279)	Double Edge: 17-13 (2011-22: 190-172)	Triple Edge: 1-1 (2011-22: 32-36)

2024 NFL Draft Goals

2024 NFL Draft Potential Busts

NFL Free Agent Signing Grades – Latest Signing Grades for 2024 NFL Free Agency

2024 NFL Mock Draft

2024 NFL Draft Day 3 Sleepers

2024 Final

NFL Picks Against the Spread: Week 17, 2018

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