NFL Picks Against the Spread: Week 19, 2018

NFL Picks (Preseason 2018): 11-10 (+$445)
NFL Picks (Week 1, 2018): 8-7-1 (+$150)
NFL Picks (Week 2, 2018): 8-7-1 (-$80)
NFL Picks (Week 3, 2018): 8-8 (-$530)
NFL Picks (Week 4, 2018): 8-6-1 (+$480)
NFL Picks (Week 5, 2018): 10-4-1 (+$1,515)
NFL Picks (Week 6, 2018): 6-7-2 (-$1,015)
NFL Picks (Week 7, 2018): 7-7 (+$430)
NFL Picks (Week 8, 2018): 6-8 (+$710)
NFL Picks (Week 9, 2018): 5-8 (-$1,245)
NFL Picks (Week 10, 2018): 5-8-1 (-$955)
NFL Picks (Week 11, 2018): 5-5-3 (+$950)
NFL Picks (Week 12, 2018): 7-8 (-$5)
NFL Picks (Week 13, 2018): 7-9 (-$630)
NFL Picks (Week 14, 2018): 11-5 (+$870)
NFL Picks (Week 15, 2018): 8-7-1 (-$1,225)
NFL Picks (Week 16, 2018): 6-8-2 (+$45)
NFL Picks (Week 17, 2018): 9-6-1 (+$790)
NFL Picks (Week 18, 2018): 4-0 (+$1,100)

NFL Picks (2018): 139-128-12 (+$1,800)
NFL Picks (2017): 137-147-10 (-$4,300)
NFL Picks (2016): 148-127-10 (+$780)
NFL Picks (2015): 133-138-10 (-$3,215)
NFL Picks (2014): 143-133-7 (-$1,885)
NFL Picks (2013): 144-131-8 (+$7,825)
NFL Picks (2012): 130-145-8 (-$7,445)
NFL Picks (2011): 137-133-12 (-$1,335)
NFL Picks (2010): 144-131-8 (+$5,880)
NFL Picks (2009): 151-124-9 (+$4,235)
NFL Picks (2008): 136-125-6 (+$6,105)
NFL Picks (2007): 162-135-10 (+$3,585)
If you don’t quite understand the line, total or anything else, go to my Sports Betting FAQ.

Vegas betting action updated Jan. 12, 2:45 p.m. ET. Follow @walterfootball for updates.

Go to Week 19 NFL Picks – Sunday Games

Indianapolis Colts (11-6) at Kansas City Chiefs (12-4)
Line: Chiefs by 4.5. Total: 54.5.
Walt’s Projected Line: Chiefs -5.
Saturday, Jan. 12, 4:35 ET

The Game. Edge: None.

WEEK 18 RECAP: There’s nothing to complain about this week. I was 4-0, +$1,100 in Week 18. Unfortunately, I forgot to post a teaser. I would’ve had two of Colts, Seahawks and Chargers. I imagine it would’ve been Colts +7.5 and Chargers +8.5. I was distracted by trying to get my 2019 NFL Free Agent Rankings posted by Monday, so it just slipped my mind.

I don’t see any teaser possibilities this week, but something I may do instead is post a couple of Super Bowl props to hedge what I have with the Chiefs at 35/1 and Saints at 18/1 because losing the Bears at 100/1 was painful last week.

My Week 19 NFL Picks will be posted all day Tuesday. Follow @walterfootball for updates.

My overrated-underrated feature was posted in this spot the past couple of years. I thought it would be better if there was less clutter on this page, so I set up a new NFL Overrated and Underrated Teams page that will be updated every Monday. I have three overrated and underrated teams listed there, and some may shock you!

KANSAS CITY OFFENSE: The Chiefs have been out of sorts ever since losing Kareem Hunt. They’ve played very sloppily and haven’t been as explosive on this side of the ball. That’s understandable, as Hunt was a unique talent. Not only was he a great runner, but he was a terrific receiver out of the backfield. He was a dynamic threat teams were scared of, but now the Chiefs are missing that element.

Damien Williams has done a decent job of replacing Hunt, but he doesn’t offer nearly the same explosive ability. Plus, Williams won’t be able to run very well against the Colts, who have one of the top run defenses in the NFL. Without a viable ground attack, Patrick Mahomes will have to do it all himself. That could easily work well, but Mahomes was guilty of several mistakes late in the year, so it’s possible that he’ll be responsible for some turnovers, which is not uncommon for quarterbacks making their first start in the playoffs. More on that later.

The Chiefs have some positive edges on this side of the ball, however. The Colts don’t pressure quarterbacks well unless they’re playing the Texans’ awful offensive line, so Mahomes should have time in the pocket to dissect Indianapolis’ secondary, which is just OK. The Colts also struggle mightily to defend tight ends, so Travis Kelce is expected to have a huge game.

INDIANAPOLIS OFFENSE: Speaking of matchup edges, the Colts have more than the Chiefs do. Indianapolis will be able to practically do whatever it wants to when it has the ball.

Andrew Luck was able to shred through the Texans’ prolific defense, which is seventh in DVOA. The Chiefs are 26th. This is a much easier matchup for him. The only thing Kansas City does well defensively is put pressure on the quarterback with Justin Houston, Dee Ford and Chris Jones, but we just saw Indianapolis protect Luck from J.J. Watt, Jadeveon Clowney and Whitney Mercilus. The Colts have the best offensive line in the NFL when center Ryan Kelly is healthy. Kelly missed some games late in the year, but returned for the wild-card round of the playoffs and was terrific as usual. With Indianapolis’ blocking unit completely intact, Luck will have all the time he needs to pierce through the Kansas City defense. Eric Ebron, in particular, will be a heavy target of Luck’s, as no team is worse against tight ends than the Chiefs.

The Colts will also be able to run the ball effectively. Marlon Mack has been shockingly prolific when Kelly has played. He trampled the Texans, who had the top DVOA run defense in the NFL. The Chiefs, conversely, are dead last in that regard!

RECAP: I mentioned that I’d get to Mahomes being a first-time playoff quarterback. Once again, here’s the list of first-time playoff quarterbacks since 2002, updated for last week’s results. Note that first-time playoff quarterbacks battling each other are excluded (hence, why Russell Wilson is not listed, given that his first game was against Robert Griffin):

Chad Pennington (-6), NYJ, 2002: Win ATS, Win SU
Marc Bulger (-7), STL, 2003: Loss ATS, Loss SU
Trent Green (-3.5), KC, 2003: Loss ATS, Loss SU
Drew Brees (-5.5), SD, 2004: Loss ATS, Loss SU
Ben Roethlisberger (-8.5), PIT, 2004: Loss ATS, Win SU
Chris Simms (-2.5), TB, 2005: Loss ATS, Loss SU
Eli Manning (-3), NYG, 2005: Loss ATS, Loss SU
Rex Grossman (-3), CHI, 2005: Loss ATS, Loss SU
Philip Rivers (-4.5), SD, 2006: Loss ATS, Loss SU
Jay Cutler (-10), CHI, 2010: Win ATS, Win SU
Matt Schaub (-4.5), HOU, 2012: Win ATS, Win SU
Colin Kaepernick (-3), SF, 2012: Win ATS, Win SU
Nick Foles (-3), PHI, 2013: Loss ATS, Loss SU
Dak Prescott (-5), DAL, 2016: Loss ATS, Loss SU
Jared Goff (-6), LAR, 2017: Loss ATS, Loss SU
Blake Bortles (-8), JAX, 2017: Loss ATS, Win SU
Case Keenum (-5.5), MIN, 2017: Loss ATS, Win SU
Deshaun Watson (-2), HOU, 2018: Loss ATS, Loss SU
Lamar Jackson (-3), BAL, 2018: Loss ATS, Loss SU
Mitchell Trubisky (-6.5), CHI, 2018: Loss ATS, Loss SU

Home Underdogs:

Anthony Wright (+1), BAL, 2003: Loss ATS, Loss SU
Carson Palmer/Jon Kitna (+3), CIN, 2005: Loss ATS, Loss SU
Tarvaris Jackson (+3), MIN, 2008: Loss ATS, Loss SU
Matt Cassel (+3), KC, 2010: Loss ATS, Loss SU
Tim Tebow (+8.5), DEN, 2011: Win ATS, Win SU
Alex Smith (+3.5), SF, 2011: Win ATS, Win SU
Cam Newton (+2), CAR, 2013: Loss ATS, Loss SU

Road Favorites:

David Garrard (-2), JAX, 2007: Push ATS, Win SU
Matt Ryan (-1), ATL, 2008: Loss ATS, Loss SU
Joe Flacco (-3.5), BAL, 2008: Win ATS, Win SU
Aaron Rodgers (-1), GB, 2009: Loss ATS, Loss SU

Road Underdogs:

QB Falcons No. 7 (+6.5), ATL, 2002: Win ATS, Win SU
Matt Hasselbeck (+7), SEA, 2003: Win ATS, Loss SU
Byron Leftwich (+8), JAX, 2005: Loss ATS, Loss SU
Tony Romo (+2), DAL, 2006: Win ATS, Loss SU
Todd Collins (+4), WAS, 2007: Loss ATS, Loss SU
Vince Young (+10), TEN, 2007: Loss ATS, Loss SU
Mark Sanchez (+2.5), NYJ, 2009: Win ATS, Win SU
Matthew Stafford (+10.5), DET, 2011: Loss ATS Loss SU
Joe Webb (+10), MIN, 2012: Loss ATS, Loss SU
Andrew Luck (+7), IND, 2012: Loss ATS, Loss SU
Ryan Lindley (+6.5), ARZ, 2014: Loss ATS, Loss SU
Matt Moore (+11), MIA,2016: Loss ATS, Loss SU
Connor Cook (+4), OAK, 2016: Loss ATS, Loss SU
Marcus Mariota (+8), TEN, 2017: Win ATS, Win SU
Tyrod Taylor (+8), BUF, 2017: Win ATS, Loss SU

To sum it up:

Home favorites: 4-16 ATS, 7-13 SU
Home underdogs: 2-5 ATS, 2-5 SU
Road favorites: 1-2-1 ATS, 2-2 SU
Road underdogs: 6-9 ATS, 3-12 SU

Combined Record: 13-32-1 ATS, 14-32 SU

It’s pretty bad. Both Deshaun Watson and Lamar Jackson were awful last week. Mitchell Trubisky was decent, but even had Cody Parkey drilled the field goal, Trubisky wouldn’t have covered.

Now, it’s worth noting that Mahomes is much better than Watson, Jackson and Trubisky, so perhaps he’ll win this game. However, Mahomes, as mentioned, was sloppy down the stretch after losing Hunt. Also, his defense is a sieve. The Colts will be able to put up tons of points, and Luck will be able to generate a back-door score, which he may not even need.

I’m going to be on the Colts for three units, and I might bump this up to four units if we get a clean +6. Having overtime insurance is important, as this figures to be a tight, high-scoring game that could go down to the wire.

THURSDAY THOUGHTS: Eric Berry missed Wednesday’s practice, so that’s definitely a concern for the Chiefs, who already matched up poorly against the Colts’ offense. I still love the Colts. I’m watching closely for a possible +6. If one appears, I’ll lock this in.

SATURDAY NOTES: Argh, I was hoping to bet the Colts at +6 -115. That was available at Bookmaker last night. I thought it’d be fine to hold off until Saturday – I was greedy and thought +6 -110 might be available – but the line has fallen to +4.5 because of sharp action on Indianapolis. Bookmaker actually dropped to +4, so I’m going to lock in +4.5 right now. It’s worth noting that it’s snowing in Kansas City, but I don’t think that’s an advantage for either team. Yes, the Colts play their home games in a dome, but Patrick Mahomes played college football at Texas Tech, so there’s no telling how this will impact him.

FINAL THOUGHTS: As expected, this line has dropped once again. It’s now +4 in most books, as the sharps continue to pound Indianapolis. I’d still take the Colts for three units at +4. Again, the snow isn’t a factor for me, as it could help the team with the better running game, which would be Indianapolis.

The Psychology. Edge: Colts.

Patrick Mahomes is making his first playoff start.

The Vegas. Edge: Chiefs.
Slight lean on the Colts, some by the sharps.

Percentage of money on Indianapolis: 62% (105,000 bets)

The Trends. Edge: Colts.

Andrew Luck is 14-7 ATS as an underdog of 3.5 or more since 2013.

Opening Line: Chiefs -4.

Opening Total: 55.5.

Weather: Light snow, 32 degrees. Light wind.

Week 19 NFL Pick: Chiefs 27, Colts 24
Colts +4.5 (3 Units) – any sportsbook — Incorrect; -$330
Under 54.5 (0 Units) — Correct; $0
Chiefs 31, Colts 13

Dallas Cowboys (11-6) at Los Angeles Rams (13-3)
Line: Rams by 7. Total: 49.5.
Walt’s Projected Line: Rams -5.
Saturday, Jan. 12, 8:15 ET

The Game. Edge: None.

VEGAS UPDATE: I’ll be posting how the Vegas sportsbooks have done the previous week in this spot.

The highest-bet sides were 43-40-4 last season, a year that was pretty painful for the books. Perhaps the pendulum will swing the other way…

Here were the teams getting the most bets last week:

Chargers +2.5

The Chargers were the only highly bet public team, and they covered.

The overall record of heavily bet teams is now 39-43-4. Here are the teams getting the most bets this week:

Chargers +4

Well, sort of. The Chargers are getting more money than any other team, but only at a 65-percent clip. The teams I list here are usually at 70-80 percent. Plus, I expect this to even out, as the public might jump on the Patriots closer to kickoff.

HATE MAIL: I will be posting hate mail here. This is from someone who questioned the anti-first-time quarterback strategy:

Real talk: Lamar Jackson is not going to get better as a runner. He’ll be very slightly worse and worse in that regard with each hit he takes. He must improve his passing, or he’ll be the next Vince Young – who also lost to the Chargers in his first playoff game.

This is from the NFL Power Rankings:

I don’t understand why people refuse to believe that there is biased officiating when there’s actual evidence that there was a payoff!

Here’s someone else who refuses to acknowledge that real things happened:

I never thought I’d see anyone argue that Aaron Rodgers wasn’t hurt this year. Oh OK, I guess his knee injury was just a figment of my imagination!

LOS ANGELES OFFENSE: The first three home teams on this week’s slate have a common theme. All three lost important offensive pieces in the second half of the season, and all three regressed as a result. For the Chiefs, it was Kareem Hunt. The Rams, meanwhile, haven’t been the same since Cooper Kupp got hurt.

The Rams were very explosive offensively in the first half of the year, but that changed following the Week 12 bye. Since then, the Rams were limited to 23 points against the Lions (prior to a bogus, last-second touchdown), 15 points against the Bears and 23 points against the Eagles. They were better in the final two weeks of the season, but were battling the Cardinals and 49ers, two bad teams. I believe Kupp’s absence played a huge part in the Rams’ declining offense. Kupp isn’t the most talented receiver the Rams have, but he was Jared Goff’s favorite weapon, especially on third down. Without Kupp, I expect the Rams to struggle moving the chains aerially against the Cowboys. Dallas has a terrific pass rush that will rattle Goff a bit, just as the Eagles were able to do to him in Week 15. That will throw off the timing Goff has with his remaining receivers as he throws into an improved secondary.

It would be great for the Rams if they could hide Goff a bit by relying heavily on Todd Gurley. They were not able to do this against two teams that stop the run well late in the year, the Bears and Eagles. Both teams have top-10 DVOA run defenses. The Cowboys do as well, ranking fifth in that regard. They completely stuffed Chris Carson last week. While Gurley offers a greater challenge, I believe Dallas will be able to limit Gurley effectively enough to force Goff into throwing more than Sean McVay wants him to.

DALLAS OFFENSE: While the Cowboys are stellar versus ground attacks, the Rams are awful at containing the run. They’re 28th in DVOA rush defense. I don’t have to tell you how extremely poorly that bodes for them. Ezekiel Elliott is fresh after his recent week off, so he figures to dominate this contest.

The Cowboys will be able to feed off Elliott picking up huge chunks of yardage. Dak Prescott will have frequent short-yardage situations, which will help against Aaron Donald and company. If the Cowboys still had Travis Frederick up front, I’d feel much better about their chances of containing Donald, Ndamukong Suh and Michael Brockers, but the only talented interior lineman Dallas has is Zack Martin. Thus, it’ll be important for the Cowboys to establish Elliott.

The Rams will be able to limit Amari Cooper with Aqib Talib, so Prescott will have to look elsewhere on most occasions. The rest of Dallas’ receiving corps is either pedestrian or injured – why Cole Beasley played in Week 17 is beyond me – so that could be a problem, especially considering Prescott’s accuracy problems. That said, Prescott will have success dumping off passes to Elliott, as the Rams struggle to cover in space because of a poor linebacking corps.

RECAP: These are two teams I was hoping to fade this weekend, so it’s unfortunate that they’re matched up against each other. Both have been heavily overrated for most of the year. In the case of the Rams, they’ve been overrated the entire season. Their defense isn’t quite what people made it out to be, while their offense has declined in the wake of Kupp’s injury.

The Cowboys will be able to limit the Rams and potentially keep this game close. That should mean that they’ll cover. The Rams are favored by seven, which seems a bit odd to me. Their current regime has no history of playoff success, and yet they’re expected to just blow out a team that matches up well against their offense? I don’t see it.

We saw Goff choke last year, and I believe that could happen again. As mentioned before, the Rams struggled against good competition down the stretch, and most of their early-season wins came against teams that weren’t playing well. This spread seems a touch too high to me, so I’ll be on the Cowboys for a unit or two. If +7.5 appears, it’ll almost certainly be two.

THURSDAY THOUGHTS: The best number I currently see is Dallas +7.5 -117 at Bookmaker. If you’re going to bet the Cowboys, get +7.5 because seven is the No. 2 key number. I’m still waiting on Cole Beasley news, as Beasley hasn’t practiced yet this week. That is a concern for sure.

SATURDAY NOTES: It doesn’t look like Cole Beasley and Blake Jarwin will play, so I’m probably going to drop this to one unit if they are both ruled out.

FINAL THOUGHTS: Both Cole Beasley and Blake Jarwin will play, but neither practiced at all this week, so they may not be 100 percent. That’s concerning, and it’s enough to make me drop this to one unit. I like the idea of buying half a point to get the key number of seven. The best +7.5 out there is at Bookmaker, and it’s available at -115 juice. This is a one-unit pick.

The Psychology. Edge: Cowboys.

The Rams have had no playoff success in this regime, and they’re expected to win by a wide margin.

The Vegas. Edge: None.
Equal action.

Percentage of money on Dallas: 55% (54,000 bets)

The Trends. Edge: Cowboys.

The underdog is 85-55 ATS in Cowboys games since 2010.

Opening Line: Rams -7.

Opening Total: 49.5.

Weather: Clear, 59 degrees. Light wind.

Week 19 NFL Pick: Rams 26, Cowboys 23
Cowboys +7.5 -115 (1 Unit) — Incorrect; -$115
Under 49.5 (0 Units) — Incorrect; $0
Rams 30, Cowboys 22

Week 19 NFL Picks – Sunday Games
Chargers at Patriots, Eagles at Saints

Prop/Teaser/Parlay Picks
A list of some of my favorite team/player prop picks this week
(Offense & defensive ROY picks to be counted whenver winners are announced.) Picks carried over on a week-to-week basis will be in black.

Prop/teaser/parlay picks posted in Week 19 NFL Picks – Sunday Games

2024 NFL Mock Draft - April 16

NFL Power Rankings - Feb. 22

Fantasy Football Rankings - Feb. 19

NFL Picks - Feb. 12

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Note: For legality purposes, this Web site does not promote or advocate gambling. This is solely for entertainment purposes only.

Last Week's NFL Picks Against The Spread (Week 18, 2023): 10-6 (-$415)
Last Week's 2-3 Unit NFL Picks (Week 18, 2023): 3-1 (+$460)
Last Week's 4-5 Unit NFL Picks (Week 18, 2023): 1-1 (-$40)
Last Week Over-Under (Week 18, 2023): 7-9 ($0)
Last Week's Prop/ML/Teaser/Parlay Picks (Week 18, 2023): -$15

2023 NFL Picks of the Month: 1-4, 20.0% (-$2,480)

2023 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 137-135-7, 50.4% (-$7,735)
2023 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 43-38-3, 53.1% (+$520)
2023 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 28-27-1, 50.9% (-$3,110)
2023 Season Over-Under: 139-128-3, 52.1% (+$100)
2023 Season Prop/ML/Teaser/Parlay Picks: -$1,630

1999 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 27-41-3 (39.7%)
2000 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 128-123-8 (51.0%)
2001 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 127-122-7 (51.0%)
2002 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 123-136-7 (47.5%)
2003 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 146-126-8 (53.7%)
2004 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 157-123-8 (56.1%)
2005 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 156-126-11 (55.3%)
2006 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 151-135-9 (52.8%)
2007 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 162-135-10, 54.5% (+$3,585)
2008 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 148-140-7, 51.4% (+$6,105)
2009 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 151-124-9, 54.9% (+$4,235)
2010 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 144-131-8, 52.4% (+$5,880)
2011 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 137-133-12, 50.7% (-$1,335)
2012 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 130-145-8, 47.3% (-$7,445)
2013 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 144-131-8, 52.4% (+$7,825)
2014 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 143-133-7, 51.8% (-$1,885)
2015 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 134-138-12, 49.3% (-$3,215)
2016 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 148-127-10, 53.8% (+$780)
2017 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 137-140-8, 49.5% (-$4,300)
2018 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 140-134-14, 51.3% (+$845)
2019 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 149-128-9, 53.6% (+$1,200)
2020 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 138-124-7, 52.7% (+$9,350)
2021 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 153-141-2, 51.9% (+$210)
2022 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 154-134-8, 53.5% (+$9,860)

2002 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 41-49-2 (45.6%)
2003 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 52-51-2 (50.5%)
2004 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 65-44-3 (59.6%)
2005 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 77-61-1 (55.8%)
2006 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 65-61-4 (51.6%)
2007 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 83-59-5, 58.5% (+$4,110)
2008 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 44-57-3, 43.6% (-$3,510)
2009 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 49-35-3, 58.3% (+$2,260)
2010 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 51-38-4, 57.3% (+$3,180)
2011 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 44-51-3, 46.3% (-$2,715)
2012 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 45-50-2, 47.4% (-$2,130)
2013 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 38-42, 47.5% (-$2,890)
2015 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 47-44-1, 51.6% (-$820)
2016 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 42-35-3, 54.5% (+$475)
2017 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 32-40-3, 43.8% (-$2,395)
2018 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 52-41-2, 55.9% (+$2,670)
2019 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 44-36-2, 55.0% (+$655)
2020 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 47-43-3, 52.2% (-$1,965)
2021 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 50-50, 50.0% (-$1,570)
2022 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 56-44-2, 56.0% (+$1,860)

2002 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 11-12 (47.8%)
2003 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 16-13-1 (55.2%)
2004 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 18-11 (62.1%)
2005 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 25-22-1 (53.2%)
2006 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 21-29-1 (42.0%)
2007 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 35-30-2, 53.8% (+$420)
2008 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 39-26-2, 60.0% (+$4,055)
2009 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 29-26, 52.7% (+$330)
2010 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 32-22, 59.3% (+$4,790)
2011 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 14-14, 50.0% (-$1,260)
2012 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 14-21, 40.0% (-$3,650)
2013 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 17-9-3, 65.4% (+$2,970)
2015 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 17-16-2, 51.5% (-$1,120)
2016 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 21-22-5, 48.8% (-$1,465)
2017 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 20-22-1, 47.6% (-$1,595)
2018 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 27-32-1, 45.8% (-$4,735)
2019 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 37-27-2, 57.8% (+$2,185)
2020 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 37-22-1, 62.7% (+$5,515)
2021 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 32-32-1, 50.0% (-$725)
2022 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 41-30-1, 57.8% (+$3,725)

2001 Season Over-Under: 3-2 (60.0%)
2002 Season Over-Under: 121-91-3 (57.1%)
2003 Season Over-Under: 126-132-2 (48.8%)
2004 Season Over-Under: 139-124-4 (52.9%)
2005 Season Over-Under: 117-145-4 (44.7%)
2006 Season Over-Under: 129-132-5 (49.4%)
2007 Season Over-Under: 136-145-3, 48.4% (-$1,900)
2008 Season Over-Under: 137-125-6, 52.3% (+$860)
2009 Season Over-Under: 128-135-4, 48.7% (-$3,195)
2010 Season Over-Under: 128-135-5, 48.7% (-$5)
2011 Season Over-Under: 131-131-5, 50.0% (+$135)
2012 Season Over-Under: 125-121-5, 50.8% (+$30)
2013 Season Over-Under: 132-130-5, 50.4% (-$340)
2015 Season Over-Under: 143-119-5, 54.6% ($0)
2016 Season Over-Under: 123-141-1, 46.6% (+$95)
2017 Season Over-Under: 136-139-2, 49.5% (+$640)
2018 Season Over-Under: 118-128-3, 48.0% (-$225)
2019 Season Over-Under: 126-133-4, 48.6% (-$50)
2020 Season Over-Under: 141-122-6, 53.6% ($0)
2021 Season Over-Under: 132-151-3, 46.6% ($0)
2022 Season Over-Under: 133-149-2, 47.2% (-$225)

2007 Season Prop/ML/Teaser/Parlay Picks: +$1,035
2008 Season Prop/ML/Teaser/Parlay Picks: +$1,775
2009 Season Prop/ML/Teaser/Parlay Picks: +$865
2010 Season Prop/ML/Teaser/Parlay Picks: -$200
2011 Season Prop/ML/Teaser/Parlay Picks: +$590
2012 Season Prop/ML/Teaser/Parlay Picks: -$1,685
2013 Season Prop/ML/Teaser/Parlay Picks: +$2,245
2015 Season Prop/ML/Teaser/Parlay Picks: -$855
2016 Season Prop/ML/Teaser/Parlay Picks: -$275
2017 Season Prop/ML/Teaser/Parlay Picks: -$510
2018 Season Prop/ML/Teaser/Parlay Picks: +$1,495
2019 Season Prop/ML/Teaser/Parlay Picks: -$1,715
2020 Season Prop/ML/Teaser/Parlay Picks: +$4,975
2021 Season Prop/ML/Teaser/Parlay Picks: +$3,455
2022 Season Prop/ML/Teaser/Parlay Picks: +$5,720

2006 NFL Picks of the Month: 3-3 (50%)
2007 NFL Picks of the Month: 3-3, 50.0% (-$400)
2008 NFL Picks of the Month: 6-1, 85.7% (+$3,720)
2009 NFL Picks of the Month: 3-2, 60.0% (+$640)
2010 NFL Picks of the Month: 2-4, 33.3% (-$1,810)
2011 NFL Picks of the Month: 5-2, 71.4% (+$1,870)
2012 NFL Picks of the Month: 3-2, 60.0% (+$560)
2013 NFL Picks of the Month: 6-0, 100% (+$3,900)
2014 NFL Picks of the Month: 2-4, 33.3% (-$1,350)
2015 NFL Picks of the Month: 3-3, 50.0% (-$100)
2016 NFL Picks of the Month: 5-1, 83.3% (+$2,780)
2017 NFL Picks of the Month: 4-2, 66.7% (+$1,040)
2018 NFL Picks of the Month: 4-3, 57.1% (-$640)
2019 NFL Picks of the Month: 3-3-1, 50.0% (-$625)
2020 NFL Picks of the Month: 3-2, 60.0% (+$665)
2021 NFL Picks of the Month: 2-3, 40.0% (-$920)
2022 NFL Picks of the Month: 3-4, 42.9% (-$1,615)

Career NFL Picks Against The Spread: 3,420-3,152-195, 52.1% (+$21,170)
Career 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 1,106-983-56 (52.9%)
Career 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 549-485-25 (53.1%)
Career Over-Under: 2,853-2,829-74 (50.3%)
Career Second-Half NFL Picks: 23-16-1 (59.0%)
Career NFL Picks of the Month: 46-34-1 (57.5t%)

My Team-by-Team ATS Record
This section shows how well I do when picking each team this year. The purpose is to see how well I read each team. Pushes are not displayed. Winning/losing streak in parentheses.

Cowboys: 8-9	Bears: 11-4	Bucs: 6-11	49ers: 10-7
Eagles: 7-7	Lions: 9-8	Falcons: 8-9	Cardinals: 8-9
Giants: 7-9	Packers: 5-12	Panthers: 8-9	Rams: 8-9
Redskins: 14-3	Vikings: 6-9	Saints: 10-7	Seahawks: 7-9

Bills: 9-7	Bengals: 12-5	Colts: 7-10	Broncos: 9-6
Dolphins: 6-11	Browns: 11-5	Jaguars: 13-4	Chargers: 8-9
Jets: 8-9	Ravens: 11-6	Texans: 5-12	Chiefs: 5-10
Patriots: 7-9	Steelers: 11-6	Titans: 9-8	Raiders: 6-9

Divisional: 50-35 (2011-22: 558-526)	2x Game Edge: 36-24 (2011-22: 363-361)	2x Motivation Edge: 32-36 (2011-22: 478-405)	2x Spread Edge: 41-40 (2011-22: 197-168)
2x Vegas Edge: 41-38 (2011-22: 407-406)	2x Trend Edge: 15-13 (2011-22: 306-279)	Double Edge: 17-13 (2011-22: 190-172)	Triple Edge: 1-1 (2011-22: 32-36)

2024 NFL Draft Goals

2024 NFL Draft Potential Busts

NFL Free Agent Signing Grades – Latest Signing Grades for 2024 NFL Free Agency

2024 NFL Mock Draft

2024 NFL Draft Day 3 Sleepers

2024 Final

NFL Picks Against the Spread: Week 19, 2018

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