NFL Picks Against the Spread: Week 2, 2019

NFL Picks (Preseason 2019): 14-6 (+$1,535)
NFL Picks (Week 1, 2019): 5-10-1 (-$515)

NFL Picks (2019): 19-16-1 (+$1,020)
NFL Picks (2018): 140-134-12 (+$845)
NFL Picks (2017): 137-147-10 (-$4,300)
NFL Picks (2016): 148-127-10 (+$780)
NFL Picks (2015): 133-138-10 (-$3,215)
NFL Picks (2014): 143-133-7 (-$1,885)
NFL Picks (2013): 144-131-8 (+$7,825)
NFL Picks (2012): 130-145-8 (-$7,445)
NFL Picks (2011): 137-133-12 (-$1,335)
NFL Picks (2010): 144-131-8 (+$5,880)
NFL Picks (2009): 151-124-9 (+$4,235)
NFL Picks (2008): 136-125-6 (+$6,105)
NFL Picks (2007): 162-135-10 (+$3,585)
If you don’t quite understand the line, total or anything else, go to my Sports Betting FAQ.

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Vegas betting action updated Sept. 15, 12:10 p.m. ET. Follow @walterfootball for updates.


Go to Week 2 NFL Picks – Late Games







Tampa Bay Buccaneers (0-1) at Carolina Panthers (0-1)
Line: Panthers by 7. Total: 49.
Thursday, Sept. 12, 8:20 PM


The Matchup. Edge: Buccaneers.

WEEK 1 RECAP: It sucks to start off with a losing week – 5-10-1, -$515 – but the one encouraging thing is that our top plays (four units or higher) were 2-1-1 against the spread, and the one loss involved the starting quarterback suffering an injury. Unfortunately, the push was our September NFL Pick of the Month. I’ve said before that pushes on those plays allow for a makeup NFL Pick of the Month, so you may see that at some point this week!

The main problem last week was that I was too arrogant with my two- and three-unit selections. I see what I did wrong there, so I’m confident heading into Week 2.

TAMPA BAY OFFENSE: It’s amazing how much hype Jameis Winston had coming into this offseason. Nearly every fantasy analyst touted him as this year’s sleeper. I believe he was the consensus No. 2 quarterback in Fantasy Pros’ Week 1 rankings, and I certainly played a minor part in that, simply because I loved the matchup against the 49ers. It was easy to understand the narrative, as Winston was going to have great coaching aiding him for the first time in his career. Bruce Arians has gotten a lot of out of bad quarterbacks, but the early returns with Winston are not promising.

Winston was terrible last week, as he threw two pick-sixes. He also had two interceptions that were dropped. The scary thing was this occurred against one of the worst secondaries in the NFL, so what’s going to happen against superior competition? We won’t find out in this game, however. While the Panthers possess a much-improved pass rush, their secondary isn’t very strong. Winston will have opportunities to exploit weaknesses there, but will he take advantage of them?

Based on last week’s results, the answer is clearly no. However, Winston has performed well at times in his career, and he possesses some great weapons at his disposal. With everyone down on Winston all of a sudden, it wouldn’t surprise me if he puts together a strong performance.

CAROLINA OFFENSE: Only one NFC South quarterback failed to disappoint in Week 1, and it wasn’t Cam Newton. The former MVP struggled at times in the opener. Sure, he put together some drives and didn’t have multiple turnovers, but his accuracy was very inconsistent. Something that was alarming was that Newton barely scrambled. He didn’t log a single rush until the 11-minute mark of the third quarter. Newton hurt his ankle in the preseason, but it was something I brushed off in preparation of my September NFL Pick of the Month because I heard positive practice reports. It was quite apparent that Newton wasn’t 100 percent as a scrambler, which was a big deal because running is a big part of Newton’s game.

Newton, however, may not need to run all that much to win this game. Tampa’s secondary is a mess. Vernon Hargreaves played well last week, but I’m not sure if that can continue. Newton should be able to find D.J. Moore and Curtis Samuel for decent gains consistently throughout the evening.

Of course, Carolina’s scoring unit will funnel through Christian McCaffrey. The dynamic back was prolific in the season opener, single-handedly keeping the Panthers within striking distance throughout the afternoon. I can’t imagine the Buccaneers finding a way to contain McCaffrey.

RECAP: One theme you’ll see from me this week is backing good teams coming off a loss. Something that has worked over the years is picking good 0-1 teams in Week 2, as they desperately try to avoid a dreaded 0-2 start. I count Carolina as a good team.

Unfortunately, the Panthers don’t have a healthy quarterback, and I hate backing teams with injured signal-callers. Newton is not himself because he can’t (or at least won’t) run, so I don’t trust the Panthers to win by a touchdown or more against anyone right now, except for the Dolphins. Plus, there’s a ton of action coming in on Carolina.

I’m going to take the points, but I’m not planning to bet on this game, as Thursday night affairs tend to be wonky. Plus, they tend to favor the superior team, which is obviously Carolina.

My Week 2 NFL Picks will be posted all day Tuesday. Follow @walterfootball for updates.



THURSDAY THOUGHTS: This spread has risen to +7 in most books, but that’s not going to entice me to bet this game. Perhaps at +7.5…

FINAL THOUGHTS: Well, we didn’t get a +7.5. In fact, some late sharp action pushed this line down to +6.5 in most books (though still +7 at Bovada.) I can see the case for Carolina, as it’s the better team on a short work week. However, I’m not convinced Cam Newton is healthy, as he didn’t scramble at all in the opener. Also, there’s a ton of action on the Panthers. I’m still on Tampa for zero units.




The Motivation. Edge: None.
No edge found.


The Spread. Edge: None.

WalterFootball.com Calculated Spread: Panthers -7.
Las Vegas Hilton Advance Point Spread: No Line (Newton).
Computer Model: Panthers -10.
DVOA Spread: Panthers -6.5.




The Vegas. Edge: Buccaneers.
The public is all over the Panthers.

Percentage of money on Carolina: 76% (59,000 bets)


The Trends. Edge: Buccaneers.

History: Panthers have won 11 the last 16 meetings.

Road Team is 90-57 ATS in Buccaneers games since 2009.

Opening Line: Panthers -6.5.

Opening Total: 51.

Weather: Cloudy, 86 degrees. Light wind.

Week 2 NFL Pick: Panthers 30, Buccaneers 27
Buccaneers +7 (0 Units) — Correct; $0
Over 49 (0 Units) — Incorrect; $0
Buccaneers 20, Panthers 14

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Indianapolis Colts (0-1) at Tennessee Titans (1-0)
Line: Titans by 3.5. Total: 43.5.
Sunday, Sept. 15, 1:00 PM


The Matchup. Edge: Titans.

My overrated-underrated feature was posted in this spot the past couple of years. I thought it would be better if there was less clutter on this page, so I set up a new NFL Overrated and Underrated Teams page that will be updated every Monday. I have three overrated and underrated teams listed there, and some may shock you!

TENNESSEE OFFENSE: Week 2 is a time for overreactions, as it’s natural for the public to take what they saw in the season opener a little too seriously. Based on how the Titans played in Cleveland, one might think that they’re one of the best teams in the NFL. Call me crazy, but I don’t see it that way.

It was nice to see second-round rookie receiver A.J. Brown thrive in his debut, but when Marcus Mariota wasn’t connecting on deep passes to him on a couple of occasions, he was performing like an inconsistent passer. The Colts have the talent in their secondary to limit Brown, while Justin Houston should be able to take advantage of Taylor Lewan’s absence by putting heat on Mariota, who is a very streaky quarterback, capable of making some blunders. Perhaps we’ll see more of those this week, as the Titans have the personnel to take away his preferred weapon, Delanie Walker, thanks to Darius Leonard and Malik Hooker.

The Titans, of course, will attempt to establish Derrick Henry, who reminds me of Bowser from Super Mario Kart on the SNES. He starts very slowly, but once he gets going, he accelerates quickly and smashes through everything. I trust the Colts’ run defense enough to prevent Henry from breaking too many long runs, but I’m sure he’ll burst for a long gain at some point Sunday afternoon, to the chagrin of my podcast co-host, Kenny Ortiz.

INDIANAPOLIS OFFENSE: The Titans were able to rattle Baker Mayfield with their pressure, as Cameron Wake and Harold Landry both had strong performances rushing from the edge. This was not a surprise, as the Browns have a poor tandem of tackles. The Colts certainly do not.

I love the Colts’ offensive line, and I think it can mostly keep Jacoby Brissett clean throughout the afternoon. There will be some exceptions, of course, but for the most part, Brissett should have success moving the chains. I particularly like Indianapolis’ tight ends versus the Tennessee linebackers, who did not perform well in the opener. T.Y. Hilton could also have a big game.

While I favor the Indianapolis passing attack in this matchup, I don’t think Marlon Mack will be able to duplicate what he did versus the Chargers. The Titans are much tougher up the middle than San Angeles is, so Mack, like Nick Chubb last week, figures to be bottled up most plays.

RECAP: The Titans are being overhyped right now. This spread seems like it’s trending toward -3.5, and nearly 70 percent of the betting public is on Tennessee. And why not? The Browns were crowned Super Bowl champions before the season began, so now the Titans are Super Bowl champions because they beat Cleveland.

But what if the Browns were vastly overrated to begin with? Perhaps the Titans’ victory in Week 1 shouldn’t be taken so seriously then. The public is not buying into that narrative, but it’s one I believe in.

Here’s another: Tennessee may not be fully focused for this game. Aside from pulling off a big upset victory, it’ll have to worry about preparing for Thursday night in Week 3. I think the Titans would take the Colts more seriously if Andrew Luck were still the quarterback, but that is not the case anymore.

I like the Colts to cover this spread and actually win outright. I thought about betting this game, but I have a major concern with Indianapolis, and that would be that it could be exhausted. The team is coming off a grueling overtime game and had to fly back from the West Coast. Fatigue could set in during the second half, which could allow the Titans to sneak out the victory and even the cover.

THURSDAY THOUGHTS: This spread is now -3 -120, and it wouldn’t surprise me if it hit -3.5 at some point. I’d have to consider betting Indianapolis at that number.

SATURDAY NOTES: The Colts are going to be down two of their best pass rushers, as Jabaal Sheard is out, while Kemoko Turay is doubtful. Furthermore, there’s not nearly as much action on Tennessee anymore. I’m completely off any prospect of betting on Indianapolis, and I would consider a heavy wager on the Titans if they didn’t have a Thursday game coming up next week.

FINAL THOUGHTS: Still no play on the Colts, even at +3.5. They have too many injuries.


The Motivation. Edge: Colts.
The Titans play on Thursday next week, but the Colts will be exhausted off an overtime game.


The Spread. Edge: Titans.

WalterFootball.com Calculated Spread: Titans -4.
Las Vegas Hilton Advance Point Spread: Titans -2.5.
Computer Model: Titans -5.
DVOA Spread: Titans -7.5.




The Vegas. Edge: Colts.
Slight lean on the Titans, fresh off their upset win.

Percentage of money on Tennessee: 63% (4,000 bets)


The Trends. Edge: Colts.

History: Colts have won 25 of the last 30 meetings.

Opening Line: Titans -3.

Opening Total: 44.

Weather: Sunny, 87 degrees. Light wind.

Week 2 NFL Pick: Titans 19, Colts 17
Colts +3.5 (0 Units) — Correct; $0
Under 43.5 (0 Units) — Correct; $0
Colts 19, Titans 17

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Los Angeles Chargers (1-0) at Detroit Lions (0-0-1)
Line: Chargers by 3. Total: 46.5.
Sunday, Sept. 15, 1:00 PM


The Matchup. Edge: Lions.

VEGAS UPDATE: I’ll be posting how the Vegas sportsbooks have done the previous week in this spot. The highest-bet sides were 38-44-3 last season, a year that was pretty painful for the books. Perhaps the pendulum will swing the other way…

Here were the teams getting the most bets this week:

Ravens -6.5

Rams -3

Lions -2.5

Chiefs -3.5

Chargers -7

This was a 2-2-1 week for the books, which means they won money. Conversely, this was a blood bath for the sharps, who had major action on the Panthers, Jaguars and Dolphins.

Here are the teams getting the most bets this week:

Patriots -17

Cowboys -4.5

Panthers -6.5

Vikings +3

Eagles -1

Browns -2.5

Chargers -3

Titans -3

Wow, there are tons of lopsided-bet games this week, so there’s a chance the public takes a beating, or the house loses tons of money.

DETROIT OFFENSE: The Lions were explosive in the first three quarters of the season opener. Some may dismiss that, as they were battling the Cardinals, but Arizona has an improved defense this year. Detroit, which has typically been a dink-and-dunk team since losing Calvin Johnson, hit some big plays, many of which involved T.J. Hockenson. The first-round tight end was as good as advertised. His athleticism was unbelievable, as no tight end should be able to run like him. He resembled a young Rob Gronkowski.

I don’t see how the Chargers will be able to deal with Hockenson. With Derwin James out, they don’t have the personnel at linebacker or safety to cover him. I love Hockenson in this matchup, as well as the wide receiver Casey Hayward won’t be covering, whether that’s Kenny Golladay or Marvin Jones. The Chargers were very weak at corner across from Hayward entering this past offseason, and that was not a position they addressed.

The Chargers are also weak in the middle of their interior defensive line. Down after down, the Colts exploited this weakness this past Sunday, constantly ramming Marlon Mack up the middle. This was a great strategy, and it’s one I expect the Lions to utilize with Kerryon Johnson and C.J. Anderson.

SAN ANGELES OFFENSE: While Hockenson lived up to expectations, the Chargers lived down to theirs as well. The blocking unit was an absolute mess in the opener, especially the tackles. I don’t know if left tackle Trent Scott is related to Michael Scott in any way, but he was just as incompetent at tackle as Michael was as the regional manager of his paper company. Right tackle Sam Tevi was almost as horrible, but not quite as bad.

With that in mind, the Chargers have an extremely rough matchup in this game. Trey Flowers and Devon Kennard are dangerous edge rushers, so they’ll be able to place heavy pressure on Philip Rivers. The long-time veteran quarterback will be throwing into a secondary that was much improved at Arizona, save for the bizarre fourth quarter. Mike Williams might miss this game, so the Lions will only have to worry about Keenan Allen as far as a deep threat is concerned, and Darius Slay could slow him down.

The Chargers won’t have much success running the ball either. The Lions have a top-tier ground defense, thanks to Snacks Harrison. Austin Ekeler figures to have success as a receiver out of the backfield, but neither he nor Justin Jackson will perform well as rushers.

RECAP: This is my first big play of the week, as I’m high on the Lions enough to make this a three-unit wager.

The Chargers are not as good as people think. They have a horrid offensive line, and their defense is not the same without Derwin James. They allowed Jacoby Brissett to throw all over them, and Indianapolis nearly prevailed in San Angeles last week. Had Adam Vinatiari made a kick, the Colts would have won. Had Indianapolis pulled the upset, and the Chargers were 0-1 coming into this contest, would they even be favored over the Lions? I’m not so sure.

Another major factor in my preference for Detroit this week is the Chargers’ blocking unit. I mentioned it in the previous paragraph, but it must be discussed further because it’s absolutely abysmal. Save for the Dolphins, the Chargers block worse than any team in the NFL, which is a huge deal. Teams that have severe blocking issues can’t be counted on to cover the spread consistently. San Angeles is already 0-1 ATS, and I believe it’ll be 0-2 following this contest.

The Lions, meanwhile, are better than people think. Their defense still has some flaws, but it’s much improved. The offense, meanwhile, is more explosive with Hockenson, who presents a big matchup problem for the Chargers in this contest.

Unfortunately, the sharps have pounded the Lions, moving this spread from +3 to +2.5 in most books. You can still get +3 +120 at Bovada and +3 -125 at 5Dimes. However, I fear as though these will completely disappear like Carolina +3 did last week, so I’m going to do an early lock-in and take the Detroit at +3 -120 at Bovada.

THURSDAY THOUGHTS: I’m glad I locked this in at +3 -120 because those are gone. This spread is +2.5 everywhere, and it could continue to move down in the wake of Hunter Henry’s injury. I don’t like the Lions as much at +2.5 (maybe half this bet.)

SATURDAY NOTES: This line continues to move in Detroit’s direction, thanks to all of the sharp money on the Lions. The Chargers might be down two of their top pass-catchers, with Hunter Henry out and Mike Williams questionable, so that’s another thing that makes the Lions appealing.

FINAL THOUGHTS: This spread has dropped to +1, despite the Taylor Decker news. Decekr is out, but that doesn’t matter to me. Remember when everyone was asking how the Titans would beat the Browns without Taylor Lewan? I have no issue with a team missing only one offensive lineman, even versus an elite pass rusher.


The Motivation. Edge: None.
Both teams have to endure an early start time on the East Coast, as the Lions are flying back from Arizona, where they had a tough overtime battle.


The Spread. Edge: None.

WalterFootball.com Calculated Spread: Chargers -1.
Las Vegas Hilton Advance Point Spread: Chargers -2.5.
Computer Model: Chargers -4.
DVOA Spread: Pick.




The Vegas. Edge: Lions.
The public is fading the Lions after they blew their fourth-quarter lead.

Percentage of money on San Angeles: 70% (9,000 bets)


The Trends. Edge: None.

Opening Line: Chargers -3.

Opening Total: 47.

Weather: Dome.

Week 2 NFL Pick: Lions 23, Chargers 20
Lions +3 -120 (3 Units) – Bovada — Correct; +$300
Under 46.5 (0 Units) — Correct; $0
Lions 13, Chargers 10

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Buffalo Bills (1-0) at New York Giants (0-1)
Line: Bills by 1. Total: 44.5.
Sunday, Sept. 15, 1:00 PM


The Matchup. Edge: Bills.

HATE MAIL: I will be posting hate mail here. Here’s some hate mail from last week:



Well, at least my picks weren’t all wrong. They were just “virtually” all wrong, which makes a huge difference.

Here’s a compliment of sorts:



Wow, that guy is so nice to call me funny and cool!

Here’s another great person:



Do you guys think I should do it? Should I give up on football to be a motivational speaker?

The string of good people ended with this guy:



I’m not calling David Nagle good or bad, but he is just woefully inaccurate.

BUFFALO OFFENSE: Wow, the Giants’ secondary sucks. They surrendered big play after big play in the passing game last week at Dallas. Aside from Janoris Jenkins, no one in the secondary played remotely well. I’m not even sure first-round rookie cornerback DeAndre Baker even knows how to play football at this point.

Dak Prescott exploited this major liability and will likely get a highly overpriced contract because of it. However, I’m not sure if Josh Allen is built to take advantage of this weakness like Prescott is. Allen is a fantastic runner and possesses a big arm, but he’s very inconsistent with his accuracy and is prone to turnovers. He had a couple of interceptions that were dropped last week, and it’s not like he was going up against a talented Jets cornerback group, or anything.

Allen was able to beat the Jets in the fourth quarter once C.J. Mosley exited with a groin injury. Already down Avery Williamson, the Jets simply didn’t have any talented linebackers remaining. A lack of linebacker skill is something the Giants can relate to. Alec Ogletree is horrible, and yet he’s their best player at the position. The Giants used someone named Tae Davis next to Ogletree, and he, like Baker, doesn’t know how to play football. Thus, I like Devin Singletary in this matchup, as he figures to shoulder more of a workload in his second game after his brilliant performance in the second half against the Jets.

NEW YORK OFFENSE: The Bills have a great defense, as Ed Oliver was able to manhandle the Jets’ interior last week. Conventional wisdom says the Bills’ front will thrive again in this matchup, but I’m not sure that will be the case. Contrary to popular belief, the Giants have a good offensive line for the first time in years.

The problem for New York, at least on this side of the ball, is that Eli Manning is a decrepit shell of his former self. He absolutely sucks, and Pat Shurmur is doing a huge disservice to his fan base by not using the superior option in Daniel Jones. Manning will continue to fire inaccurate balls most of the time, which will be problematic because he won’t have viable downfield weapons at his disposal if Sterling Shepard is out with a concussion.

Speaking of Shurmur’s incompetence, it was absolutely wild that Saquon Barkley had just five carries in the opening half at Dallas, compared to Manning’s 19 pass attempts. This is something that Giants beat writer Ralph Vacchiano brought up on Twitter, and some idiot replied that Barkley’s misuse was because the Cowboys were far ahead the entire game. That’s not correct, as it was a 14-7 affair right before intermission. There’s no excuse for Shurmur to give just five carries to the best running back in the NFL in a close game. Perhaps Shurmur is the idiot who responded on Twitter.

RECAP: I don’t know where I’m going with this game yet. My gut instinct was to take the Giants because the advance line movement went from New York -1.5 to +2.5, and the computer model says this line should be New York -3. If this spread were +3, I’d have much more interest in the Giants, who are not as bad as people think because they can actually block for once.

However, the Shepard concussion is holding me back from confidently picking and perhaps even betting them. If Shepard is out, much like the suspended Golden Tate, the Giants will have absolutely zero talent at receiver. They’ll be extremely limited offensively, which is not a good thing against a terrific defense like Buffalo’s.

I’m going to pencil in the Giants right now for zero units, but stay tuned for injury news on Shepard. His status will decide where I go with this game.

THURSDAY THOUGHTS: Sterling Shepard has yet to practice, but that could change. I’m going to switch to Buffalo if Shepard is out.

SATURDAY NOTES: Sterling Shepard is out, meaning the Giants are down their top two receivers; three if you include Corey Coleman, and four if you include Cody Latimer, who is questionable. With zero downfield threat, the Giants have a severe matchup problem against Buffalo’s elite defense. I’m switching my pick to the Bills.

FINAL THOUGHTS: There seems to be a bit of sharp action on the Giants, but not too much to warrant any sort of concern.


The Motivation. Edge: None.
No edge found.


The Spread. Edge: None.

WalterFootball.com Calculated Spread: Bills -1.
Las Vegas Hilton Advance Point Spread: Giants -1.5.
Computer Model: Giants -1.
DVOA Spread: Giants -1.5.




The Vegas. Edge: None.
Equal action.

Percentage of money on Buffalo: 53% (9,000 bets)


The Trends. Edge: None.

Opening Line: Bills -2.5.

Opening Total: 43.

Weather: Partly cloudy, 80 degrees. Light wind.

Week 2 NFL Pick: Bills 23, Giants 17
Bills -1 (0 Units) — Correct; $0
Under 44.5 (0 Units) — Correct; $0
Bills 28, Giants 14

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Arizona Cardinals (0-0-1) at Baltimore Ravens (1-0)
Line: Ravens by 13. Total: 45.5.
Sunday, Sept. 15, 1:00 PM


The Matchup. Edge: None.

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BALTIMORE OFFENSE: Lamar Jackson looked like Joe Montana last week, completing 17-of-20 passes for 324 yards and five touchdowns despite not playing the entire game. He was unstoppable, and he’s now on pace to throw for 5,184 yards and 80 touchdowns. How will any defense stop him!?

Probably by trying. The Dolphin defenders stood around most of the time, displaying a severe lack of effort. There was one play which really exemplified this, as Jackson threw a touchdown to someone as some Miami players just observed and did nothing about it. No one moved at all, which was ridiculous.

I have a feeling that every quarterback will look like Joe Montana versus the Dolphins this year. The Cardinals are missing cornerbacks due to injury and suspension, so Jackson will have some positive matchups to exploit in this contest. However, opposing effort will be the big difference compared to last week. Also, the Cardinals actually have players who can get to the quarterback, so I expect Chandler Jones and Terrell Suggs to rattle Jackson and force him into some poor throws and a turnover or two.

Jackson, of course, will attempt to run the ball more often than he did last week because he didn’t need to versus Miami. This will present a problem for most teams, but I like Arizona’s defensive line and linebackers to keep Jackson and Mark Ingram from trampling them too severely.

ARIZONA OFFENSE: Kyler Murray also had a shocking performance in Week 1. Shocking, as in how incredibly inconsistent Murray was throughout the afternoon. He struggled mightily in the first three quarters, as he fired inaccurate passes and had three balls batted down at the line of scrimmage. However, Murray caught fire and had an unbelievable fourth quarter. He was incredible, leading his team back from down 24-6.

The Lions have a good defense, so it’s not like Murray did this against poor competition, or anything. Murray actually has some matchup advantages in this game, as cornerback Jimmy Smith will be out with an injury. The Ravens were already weak at slot cornerback, which bodes well for Larry Fitzgerald, and now they’ll have trouble covering across from Marlon Humphrey.

The Ravens are also very weak at linebacker in the wake of C.J. Mosley’s departure. While I don’t expect David Johnson to perform well on the ground, he’ll be an effective receiver out of the backfield and should have some nice gains because of the poor linebacker play.

RECAP: This spread is out of control. The advance line was Baltimore -10, and now it’s -13.5, all because the Ravens beat up on the worst team in NFL history. Meanwhile, I’m bearish on the Ravens, which would explain why my calculated line is only Baltimore -6.

There’s great value with the Cardinals, and I plan on betting them for a couple of units. What’s holding me back from a larger wager on them is that they’re coming off an overtime game and now have to play an early contest on the East Coast. This is a concern, but I’m willing to forgive that for 7.5 points of line value!

Also, it’s worth noting that the Ravens may not be entirely focused. They have to battle the Chiefs, Browns and Steelers after this game, so there’s major look-ahead potential. Plus, I imagine that the Baltimore players have been reading too many of their positive press clippings in the wake of that ridiculous blowout victory over the eventual 0-16 Dolphins.

THURSDAY THOUGHTS: It surprises me that more people aren’t betting the Ravens after what happened in Week 1. I thought we’d have at least 65-percent action on the host.

SATURDAY NOTES: The Ravens potentially have some injury question marks that could prompt me to raise my unit count on Arizona. Baltimore could be without two important pass-catchers, as Mark Andrews and Marquise Brown both missed Friday’s practice. Meanwhile, cornerback Marlon Humphrey is questionable, so he could miss this contest along with fellow corner Jimmy Smith.

FINAL THOUGHTS: I was hoping this line would rise to +14, but a bit of sharp money has come in on Arizona. I’m still fine with a two-unit bet on the Cardinals.


The Motivation. Edge: None.
The Cardinals will be exhausted off their overtime game, while the Ravens will be looking ahead to battling the Chiefs, Browns and Steelers.


The Spread. Edge: Cardinals.

WalterFootball.com Calculated Spread: Ravens -6.
Las Vegas Hilton Advance Point Spread: Ravens -10.
Computer Model: Ravens -14.
DVOA Spread: Ravens -10.




The Vegas. Edge: None.
Equal action.

Percentage of money on Arizona: 53% (8,000 bets)


The Trends. Edge: None.

John Harbaugh is 10-1 SU at home vs. rookie quarterbacks.

Ravens are 8-16 ATS as favorites of 7.5 or more since 2010.

Opening Line: Ravens -12.5.

Opening Total: 42.5.

Weather: Partly cloudy, 82 degrees. Light wind.

Week 2 NFL Pick: Ravens 23, Cardinals 17
Cardinals +13 (2 Units) – any sportsbook — Correct; +$200
Under 45.5 (0 Units) — Correct; $0
Ravens 23, Cardinals 17

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New England Patriots (1-0) at Miami Dolphins (0-1)
Line: Patriots by 18. Total: 48.
Sunday, Sept. 15, 1:00 PM


The Matchup. Edge: Patriots.

I wouldn’t say my weekly random NFL notes cluttered these picks pages, so I’ll keep them here. What I’m also going to do is store all of them in a Random NFL Notes section so that you can go back and read previous entries in the future.

Some random NFL notes I can’t put anywhere else:

1. I was talking to my friend Body Burner about the stupid, generic write-ups that fantasy football sites give your teams after you draft. Body Burner was frustrated because Yahoo! gave him a “C” because, as they put it, “You filled your flex position before you picked your third wide receiver and tight end.”

That, however, was child’s play based on what NFL.com said about my draft. I have to show you this as proof; otherwise, you wouldn’t believe me:



I’m projected to go 0-14! Wow!

Hilariously, I won in Week 1, so NFL.com is already wrong.

I wondered why NFL.com graded my team so poorly, and I came to realize that it was because I didn’t draft a defense or a kicker. Thus, I got zero projected points from those positions in every simulated matchup.

It would be nice if these sites had smarter models for their write-ups, but I guess they just match the type of analysis that you often see on TV.

2. Speaking of fantasy defenses, check out what I did with mine in all six leagues I’m in:



I either drafted the Packers in the penultimate round of my draft, or picked them up after not selecting a defense entirely.

The next time you’re thinking about spending a pick outside of the final two rounds on a defense, remember this. Using an earlier selection on a defense is a horrible strategy because you’re limiting your upside.

3. A word on Philly sports talk radio, since I live here and listen to it sometimes. We have lots of great sports-talk radio personalities in this city, but some of it is just putrid. For example, take a look at what one Philly sports-talk radio guy said the Sunday after final cuts:

“Howie Roseman is overrated. He spent a fifth-round pick on Clayton Thorson!”

Unreal. That might just be the dumbest hot take ever. Skip Bayless and Stephen A. Smith would even be embarrassed by what he said.

All Roseman did was build one of the most talented rosters in the NFL, thanks to great draft picks, sharp free agency signings and cunning trades. But no, let’s focus on one fifth-round draft pick despite the fact that most fifth-round selections fail!

ONE-SIDED MATCHUP: I’ve decided that I’m not going to delve into matchups in Miami games this year because there’s no point. The Dolphins have almost no talent, and they’re not even trying. They know the organization wants to tank, and almost all of their veterans have requested trades. The Dolphins are the worst team in NFL history.

RECAP: There’s not much to recap here. The Patriots should win easily, but the question is if they’ll run up the score like the Ravens, who were running fake punts despite being up 35-3.

My guess is no, given that Bill Belichick is good friends with Dolphins head coach Brian Flores. Still, it may not matter. Even if the Patriots aren’t trying to score in the second half, they could still cover this spread, given how horrible the Dolphins are. I know Tom Brady has a bad history in Miami, and it’s going to be very hot and humid for a team in dark-blue jerseys. However, this version of the Dolphins is not a real NFL team.

Quite frankly, I’m surprised so many sportsbooks have a line on this game, as no one is betting Miami. Pinnacle has even taken this game off the board, and I don’t blame them.

I’m not going to bet this game, as there will be potential for a back-door cover, but I’ll be on the Patriots for office pool purposes.

THURSDAY THOUGHTS: There are more bets coming in on this game than any other this week, which is not surprising. It’s worth noting that Antonio Brown may not play because of the rape charge, but that doesn’t affect my pick.

SATURDAY NOTES: I have nothing new to say about this game. I don’t want to lay this many points on the road in the NFL, but taking the Dolphins seems even less appealing.

FINAL THOUGHTS: I can’t believe it. There’s some sharp money coming in on Miami. This seems like just a price play. I don’t know why anyone would bet on a team actively trying to lose.


The Motivation. Edge: None.
This will be a very hot and humid game for the Patriots in their dark jerseys, but the Dolphins may not try again.


The Spread. Edge: None.

WalterFootball.com Calculated Spread: Patriots -23.
Las Vegas Hilton Advance Point Spread: Patriots -10.5.
Computer Model: Patriots -21.
DVOA Spread: Patriots -17.




The Vegas. Edge: Dolphins.
Is there a living soul who will want to bet on Miami? Apparently, some sharps.

Percentage of money on New England: 65% (14,000 bets)


The Trends. Edge: Patriots.

History: Patriots have won 16 of the last 24 meetings (Home Team has won 13 of the last 15 meetings).

Patriots are 57-41 ATS vs. AFC East opponents since 2001.

Tom Brady is 236-73 as a starter (176-119 ATS).

Patriots are 15-20 ATS as road favorites since 2013.

Tom Brady is 6-9 ATS at Miami.

Opening Line: Patriots -14.5.

Opening Total: 48.

Weather: Hot and humid, 91 degrees. Mild wind, 12 mph.

Week 2 NFL Pick: Patriots 45, Dolphins 17
Patriots -18 (0 Units) — Correct; $0
Over 48 (0 Units) — Incorrect; $0
Patriots 43, Dolphins 0

---

Dallas Cowboys (1-0) at Washington Redskins (0-1)
Line: Cowboys by 6. Total: 47.
Sunday, Sept. 15, 1:00 PM


The Matchup. Edge: None.

As with the random NFL notes, I’m going to have all of my Random College Football Notes on one page as well. Oh, and you can find my College Football Picks here.

Random College Football Notes:

1. The big game in the early Saturday slate was one that wasn’t expected to be close. Yet, Army had Michigan on the ropes. In fact, the Black Knights may have won if their quarterback didn’t throw an insanely stupid interception in the red zone in the second half. They could have kicked an easy field goal instead, rather than going to overtime.

I was rooting for Army, like all of you non-Michigan alumni. Sadly, the Wolverines prevailed. They strip-sacked the overwhelmed Army quarterback in overtime. He was forced into throwing for once – Army ran the ball 30 straight times at one point – and he just couldn’t do anything against Michigan’s pass rush.

As the Wolverines recovered the turnover, the entire stadium errupted in joy – and yet, I didn’t really get it. Why was everyone so happy? They nearly lost to freaking Army! This was nothing to be happy about.

If I voted in the college football polls, I’d drop Michigan 20 spots for this near-defeat. There’s no reason Army should have been able to hang with a top-20 college team, which means that Michigan is not a top-20 team.

2. Speaking of Michigan, I really wonder if this is Jim Harbaugh’s final year in college football. He has been a failure at Michigan, which is an utter shock. Harbaugh was so good in the NFL, so he should go back there. It’s a shame he left the pros in the first place.

Michigan has been competitive under Harbaugh, but they’ve never had great success. Losing to Army would have been the final straw. Michigan narrowly escaped, which probably doesn’t bode well for the remainder of their season.

Again, I need to emphasize that Michigan nearly lost to Army, a team, by the way, that had an absurd number of guys whose last name was “Army.” Seriously, it seemed as though everyone had “Army” on the back of their jersey, if you didn’t watch. This must be so confusing, especially to the Army announcers, who probably say, “Army throws it to Army, who gets a block from Army, touchdown Army!”

3. For those of you who haven’t seen it, we now have:

College Football Recruiting Rankings – A list of the top college football recruits, and where they’re planning on going to college.

College Football Recruiting Commitments – Tracking where the latest college football recruits are committing to, plus a grade for each school.

College Football Recruiting Grades – Grades for each school’s recruiting class thus far, plus rankings.

If you click on the bottom link, you’ll see that neither Alabama nor Clemson is No. 1 anymore! Check out who has the top recruiting class this year.

DALLAS OFFENSE: The Cowboys were unstoppable in the season opener. It made a huge difference that their entire offensive line was intact. Dak Prescott has proven that he can play well when behind an elite wall, and he shredded New York’s incompetent secondary as a result. The Giants had no answer for Michael Gallup, or even Randall Cobb, who barely did anything in his final years with Aaron Rodgers.

Call me crazy, but some of this was misleading. The Cowboys are a strong team because of their blocking, but their receivers aren’t really good outside of Amari Cooper, who isn’t even 100 percent as a result of his foot injury. The Giants simply have one of the worst secondaries in the NFL, so most quarterbacks will be able to torch them this year. New York is really missing Landon Collins, who will be tasked to defend Dallas’ aerial attack in this contest. The Redskins don’t have the best secondary in the NFL, but their group is far better than what the Giants possess. Also, the Redskins can generate more pressure on opposing passers than New York can, thanks to Ryan Kerrigan, rookie Montez Sweat and a strong interior. The Cowboys are still starting Connor Williams for some reason, so this is a liability Washington can take advantage of.

It’ll hurt the Redskins that they may not have Jonathan Allen in this game, but they still have a stacked defensive line that should be able to limit Ezekiel Elliott. The talented Dallas runner will receive more of a workload this week, but this is a much tougher matchup for him.

WASHINGTON OFFENSE: It was speculated that All-Pro left tackle Trent Williams would report for Week 2. There hasn’t been any news on that front thus far, however, but I’m not sure the Redskins will necessarily need him for this game. Donald Penn sucks, but it’s not like the Cowboys have an elite blind-side pass rusher. DeMarcus Lawrence will be a problem on the other side, but right tackle Morgan Moses won’t be completely overwhelmed.

The Cowboys don’t possess an elite pass rush, so Case Keenum will have more time than he did in the second half of last week’s collapse to the Eagles. This could give him time to find Terry McLaurin for a deep gain again. McLaurin is a terrific route runner, so it’s not a surprise that he’s better than expected right away. Meanwhile, Keenum should be able to connect with Jordan Reed and/or Vernon Davis occasionally, given Dallas’ struggles versus tight ends.

Derrius Guice won’t play, which is a big deal to some. I personally don’t understand this thought process, as Adrian Peterson is the better back right now. Guice doesn’t seem quite right coming off his knee injury, while Peterson will be determined that it was incorrect for Jay Gruden to bench him last week. I’ve learned never to doubt Peterson when everyone else does, so I could see him running well in this game. I also imagine Peterson will receive more than five carries in the opening half, which is the ridiculous number Saquon Barkley received prior to intermission.

RECAP: There’s an absurd amount of action on the Cowboys, as 90 percent of the money is going their way in this matchup.

While this is not surprising in the slightest – it’s an overreaction to Dallas’ Week 1 victory over the pitiful Giants – it’s certainly not how I’d wager this game. To me, the Cowboys are a bit overrated because the Giants are just so horrible defensively, while the Redskins are not as bad as people think. They had a 17-0 lead against the Eagles, for crying out loud. They can’t be horrible.

I could see this game being closer than the public envisions. I could also see the Cowboys not really giving 100-percent effort. They’re coming off an impressive win and are undoubtedly reading their press clippings too much. They’re a veteran team and a large road favorite, so I don’t see why they’d give it their all in a game that they’re expected to win by a large margin by most people. The Redskins, conversely, will be determined to beat their hated arch rival.

I like the Redskins enough to wager three units on them. I may increase my unit count if this spread reaches +6.

THURSDAY THOUGHTS: This spread has reached +5.5 at most sportsbooks, and Bookmaker has a +6 available. I’m going to increase the unit count to four at that number.

SATURDAY NOTES: This spread has risen to -6 in some places, but it’s still -5 at Pinnacle, the sharpest book on the Web. Pinnacle is begging for people to bet the Cowboys. I’m going to lock this in at +6 -108 at Bookmaker (I’ll round this up to -110 to make tracking easier.)

FINAL THOUGHTS: You can get +6.5 at Bovada, which is a bummer that I missed out on it. Still, +6 seems like it should be good enough.


The Motivation. Edge: Redskins.
This figures to be a low-effort game from Dallas.


The Spread. Edge: None.

WalterFootball.com Calculated Spread: Cowboys -4.
Las Vegas Hilton Advance Point Spread: Cowboys -4.5.
Computer Model: Cowboys -5.
DVOA Spread: Cowboys -3.




The Vegas. Edge: Redskins.
Everyone’s impressed by Dallas’ Week 1 performance.

Percentage of money on Dallas: 82% (10,000 bets)


The Trends. Edge: Redskins.

History: Underdog has covered 14 of the previous 21 meetings.

The underdog is 85-57 ATS in Cowboys games since 2010.

Cowboys are 17-28 ATS when favored after a win since 2010.

Redskins are 10-20 ATS in September home games since 2001.

Opening Line: Cowboys -4.5.

Opening Total: 44.

Weather: Partly cloudy, 81 degrees. Light wind..

Week 2 NFL Pick: Cowboys 23, Redskins 22
Redskins +6 (4 Units) – Bookmaker — Incorrect; -$440
Under 47 (0 Units) — Incorrect; $0
Cowboys 31, Redskins 31

---

Jacksonville Jaguars (0-1) at Houston Texans (0-1)
Line: Texans by 9. Total: 43.
Sunday, Sept. 15, 1:00 PM


The Matchup. Edge: Texans.

If you’ve followed this site for a while, you might remember that I like to respond to my spam mails. It all started seven years ago, when a man named Jon Wire from the “United Bank of Africoan” promised me an ATM card of some sort, so I responded as a man named Mister Compassion Chuck Norris, who was raised by wolves. The following season, I received e-mails from Richard Held and Loon Bruce, who told me I won a Facebook Award, which comes with a “lump sum pay out of (750,000.00 GBP).” Pretending to be Matthew Millen Kim, I sent out my application and fake money.

I’ve been messing around with spammers ever since, pretending to be Harvey Weinstein, Tom Brady, Ramsay Bolton and Walter White. I have brand new Spam Mails this year, so check them out if you want to see me screw with spammers. I’ll have new ones every week!

JACKSONVILLE OFFENSE: It’s amazing how lazy people can be sometimes. All I’ve heard is, “Gardner Minshew was great last week!” over the past few days. Minshew posted GREAT STATS, as he went 22-of-25 in relief of the injured Nick Foles versus Kansas City, but I doubt anyone saying this actually watched Minshew play, outside of seeing a couple of highlights. All but two of Minshew’s passes were checkdowns against a prevent Kansas City defense, which is not very good to begin with. Minshew went deep twice; once when Tyrann Mathieu bit on play-action, and a second time when D.J. Chark was wide open along the sideline.

Furthermore, I watched every single snap of Minshew’s in the preseason, and here’s what I wrote about him in the NFL Rookie Quarterbacks page:

I looked at the box score of the preseason finale and saw that Jaguars rookie quarterback Gardner Minshew went 11-of-26 for 79 yards. I was eager to criticize him because of how horrific that stat line looked, so I was disappointed to see that Minshew didn’t perform as poorly as the numbers indicate.

Minshew’s completion percentage was atrocious because of all the drops. A whopping seven of Minshew’s passes were dropped. It was an embarrassing showing by the Jaguar wide receiver reserves. That said, I can’t exactly say Minshew played well. Actually, Minshew was very fortunate in this game despite the drops. He was nearly picked in the early going because he held the ball too long and got hit as he released a pass as a result. Later, Minshew fired a pass behind a receiver on a slant, then heaved a pick-six when he stared down his receiver for what seemed like five seconds. Luckily for Minshew, the turnover was wiped out by a defensive hold.

I’m not sure Minshew can be a viable No. 2 quarterback in the NFL just yet.

And now he’s expected to start! I don’t expect Minshew to compose GREAT STATS against a much better Houston defense, especially if he continues to hold on to the ball too long. Romeo Crennel will eat him for breakfast (perhaps literally.) And it’s not like Leonard Fournette will be able to do much, given that the Texans are terrific versus the run.

HOUSTON OFFENSE: The Jaguars were expected to have a great defense in 2019, but their stop unit was atrocious last week. Granted, they were battling the best quarterback in the NFL, but it’s not like Deshaun Watson is chopped liver, or anything. Watson appears to have taken a huge step cerebrally, so I expect him to be one of the top signal-callers in the league this season.

As with Patrick Mahomes, Watson possesses terrific talent at his disposal. Jalen Ramsey and A.J. Bouye struggled in the season opener, and now they’ll be tasked with defending DeAndre Hopkins, Will Fuller and Kenny Stills. I imagine Watson will complete several deep passes in this game, particularly against inept safety Ronnie Harrison.

The Jaguars will need to pressure Watson heavily to keep him from torching them. The problem is that Jacksonville’s best edge rusher, Yannick Ngakoue, suddenly has a tougher matchup against Laremy Tunsil, who provides some much-needed stability to the offensive line.

RECAP: Forgive me for not jumping on the Minshew hype train despite his GREAT STATS. I gave this guy a C- for what he did in the preseason. He’ll have a far more difficult time against a very good defense that won’t be playing prevent to start the game.

It’s rare that we get to bet on the worst quarterback of the week without the public going the other way. The action on this game is actually even, which is truly remarkable, given that most people are impressed with Minshew because he posted GREAT STATS.

I love the Texans in this game, and I’m going to bet them heavily. As mentioned earlier, I like wagering on good teams in Week 2 that begin 0-1. The Texans know they need to prevail to avoid an 0-2 start, and Minshew’s GREAT STATS could actually make them believe that they actually have a challenge on their hands.

THURSDAY THOUGHTS: This spread is rising, and I’m going to lock this in before it reaches -10. Nine is not a key number, but 10 certainly is. The best line is -9 -105 at Bovada.

SATURDAY NOTES: It’s amazing to me that the public is now coming in on the Jaguars. Not only are they starting someone named Gardner Minshew; they will be down two of their top three offensive tackles (Cam Robinson, Cedric Ogbuehi) versus Houston’s defense, while Yannick Ngakoue and A.J. Bouye are out as well.

FINAL THOUGHTS: Here’s another game I locked in too early. Sharp money has taken this down to -7, which is ridiculous, considering how many injuries the Jaguars have. I loved the Texans at -9, so I feel even stronger about it at -7. Sometimes, locking picks in is beneficial (see Lions +3, Broncos +3). Sometimes, it bites you in the a**, as it did here.


The Motivation. Edge: None.
No edge found.


The Spread. Edge: None.

WalterFootball.com Calculated Spread: Texans -8.
Las Vegas Hilton Advance Point Spread: Texans -3.
Computer Model: Texans -10.
DVOA Spread: Texans -12.




The Vegas. Edge: None.
Slight lean on the Jaguars.

Percentage of money on Jacksonville: 58% (7,000 bets)


The Trends. Edge: Texans.

History: Texans have won 13 of the last 17 meetings.

Opening Line: Texans -8.

Opening Total: 45.

Weather: Dome.

Week 2 NFL Pick: Texans 27, Jaguars 13
Texans -9 -105 (4 Units) – Bovada — Incorrect; -$420
Under 43 (0 Units) — Correct; $0
Texans 13, Jaguars 12

---

Seattle Seahawks (1-0) at Pittsburgh Steelers (0-1)
Line: Steelers by 3.5. Total: 47.
Sunday, Sept. 15, 1:00 PM


The Matchup. Edge: Steelers.

Video of the Week: I often like to open the season with an homage to NFL Primetime, which used to be the best NFL highlights show on TV before Chris Berman and Tom Jackson stopped doing it after the 2006 season. This clip of NFL Primetime is nuts. It involves a team running a 2-minute drill at the end of the game while up 42-24 in order to score a much-needed touchdown:



Sadly, none of this ended up mattering because the Cowboys ended up winning later in the day.

PITTSBURGH OFFENSE: The Steelers were dreadful on this side of the ball Sunday night, scoring only three points. It was a pathetic showing, as Ben Roethlisberger was heavily pressured and couldn’t find anyone open. It didn’t help that the woeful Donte Moncrief dropped several passes.

However, there’s a difference between battling the Patriots and the Seahawks. New England may have the best defense in the NFL, while Seattle struggles tremendously on this side of the ball. The Seahawks surrendered 400 passing yards to Andy Dalton, for crying out loud. The Seahawk secondary is a mess, and besides Jadeveon Clowney, no one can get to the quarterback consistently.

I think Roethlisberger will have a major rebound performance. He’ll be at home, where he’s played much better in his career, and he’ll be able to connect with JuJu Smith-Schuster, who won’t be smothered by elite cornerback Stephon Gilmore this week.

SEATTLE OFFENSE: The Seahawks no longer have the worst offensive line in the NFL because neither the Dolphins nor Chargers can block whatsoever, but they’re still poor up front. Center Justin Britt was awful last week, as was former first-round right tackle Germain Ifedi.

This does not bode well for Seattle, to say the least. T.J. Watt will be able to exploit his matchup rather easily, while Pittsburgh’s tremendous interior will generate a heavy interior pass rush.

I still expect Russell Wilson to have some success throwing downfield, as there are some major questions in Pittsburgh’s secondary, but it’ll be difficult for him to maintain drives, given the lack of protection. Wilson won’t be aided by the running game very well either, as the Steelers have one of the best ground defenses in the NFL.

RECAP: Once again, I love betting on good teams in Week 2 that begin the year 0-1. The Steelers know that they have to avoid an 0-2 start to be competitive in the division. If they lose, they’ll presumably be two back of the Ravens, who battle Arizona this week.

The Steelers have added motivation, in that they were absolutely humiliated on national TV. Pittsburgh is a proud team, and I expect it to bounce back with a vengeance in this game. Meanwhile, the Seahawks aren’t the best spot, as they have to play an early start on the East Coast.

I believe the Steelers clearly have the motivational edge. They also possess the Vegas advantage, as the majority of the public is betting the Seahawks. Furthermore, they own the matchup edge as well, given how horrible Seattle’s offensive line is.

With that in mind, I absolutely love the Steelers. They’re my second-best play of the week behind my makeup September NFL Pick of the Month, which I’ll get to later today.

THURSDAY THOUGHTS: The public isn’t heavy on the Seahawks anymore, but I still love Pittsburgh. I was wondering if locking in -4 was a good move, as -4.5 would be far less appealing. However, Bookmaker has -3.5 available, so I’m going to lock that in.

SATURDAY NOTES: Joe Haden and Maurkice Pouncey are questionable for the Steelers, but they practiced Friday. If both were out, that wouldn’t affect my opinion on this game too much, though the ideal unit count would probably be four.

FINAL THOUGHTS: Here’s an instance in which locking in worked. This spread has risen to -4, thanks to some public money on Pittsburgh. There’s not enough to warrany any concern though.


The Motivation. Edge: Steelers.
The Seahawks will be playing an early game on the East Coast.


The Spread. Edge: Seahawks.

WalterFootball.com Calculated Spread: Steelers -5.
Las Vegas Hilton Advance Point Spread: Steelers -3.5.
Computer Model: Steelers -2.
DVOA Spread: Steelers -2.




The Vegas. Edge: Seahawks.
Some money has come in on the Steelers.

Percentage of money on Pittsburgh: 64% (11,000 bets)


The Trends. Edge: None.

Russell Wilson is 20-7 ATS as an underdog.

Steelers are 8-1 ATS after losing by 20+ in the Ben Roethlisberger era.

Opening Line: Steelers -5.

Opening Total: 46.5.

Weather: Partly cloudy, 77 degrees. Light wind.

Week 2 NFL Pick: Steelers 26, Seahawks 16
Steelers -3.5 (5 Units) – Bookmaker — Incorrect; -$550
Under 47 (0 Units) — Incorrect; $0
Seahawks 28, Steelers 26

---

San Francisco 49ers (1-0) at Cincinnati Bengals (0-1)
Line: Bengals by 1. Total: 46.
Sunday, Sept. 15, 1:00 PM


The Matchup. Edge: None.

The 2019 Adventures of Tom Brady’s Haircuts are here!



To read about this, check out the 2019 Adventures of Tom Brady’s Haircuts via the link!

CINCINNATI OFFENSE: The Bengals were projected to have one of the worst offensive lines in the NFL, but the unit surprisingly held up somewhat well against the Seahawks. That said, I don’t exactly trust what I saw. Cincinnati was going up against a Seattle team that can’t apply pressure on the quarterback, outside of Jadeveon Clowney, who didn’t look like he was in shape enough to play an entire game effectively.

The Bengals’ front will face a much greater test in this contest. Second-overall rookie Nick Bosa had a tremendous debut last week, while Dee Ford has a great mismatch on the other side. DeForest Buckner will pose a huge challenge to Cincinnati’s interior. I expect Andy Dalton to be rattled by all of this pressure, especially if Cordy Glenn is forced to sit out once again.

It won’t help Dalton that he’ll be missing two of his best play-makers. A.J. Green will be out for a few weeks, while Joe Mixon might miss this contest as well. Without needing to worry about Mixon, the 49ers can focus on stopping Dalton’s remaining receivers. This includes John Ross, who had a tremendous performance against the Seahawks. Again, I don’t trust what I saw because Seattle has a horrible defense. I believe the 49ers, who locked down Jameis Winston’s receivers, should be able to handle Ross and Tyler Boyd.

SAN FRANCISCO OFFENSE: I usually don’t agree with hot takes on TV, but I liked what Michael Silver of NFL Network said during a Monday afternoon show. He suggested that if Jimmy Garoppolo continues to struggle – he was poor in Week 1 – the 49ers could opt to bench him in favor of Nick Mullens, who did a great job of running Kyle Shanahan’s offense at the end of last season. It’s not the craziest suggestion in the world, even though Garoppolo is way more talented the Mullens. The problem with Garoppolo is that he doesn’t seem to trust his knee at the moment, which is causing him to perform poorly.

It doesn’t help Garoppolo that he doesn’t have much to throw to besides George Kittle. The 49ers possess a very talented receiver in Dante Pettis, but he barely played last week because, well, I’m not really sure why. He’s in Kyle Shanahan’s dog house for some reason. Shanahan needs to get over his concerns with Pettis because he’s just going to harm his football team.

At any rate, the 49ers figure to run well on the Bengals. Cincinnati has a poor linebacking corps, so I like Matt Breida’s outlook in this game. The 49ers block extremely well, so they should be able to blast open huge running lanes for him.

RECAP: I don’t feel confident enough in this pick to bet it, but I like the 49ers. They were -2.5 on the advance line, yet are now underdogs because of one week of action. That doesn’t seem right to me, as I still view San Francisco as the superior team.

However, I just can’t get past how poorly Garoppolo is playing. His knee issue is clearly a concern, so I’m going to lay off this game entirely.

THURSDAY THOUGHTS: I don’t really have an update of note here. I don’t have interest in betting on this game.

SATURDAY NOTES: Cordy Glenn has been ruled out, which makes the 49ers slightly more appealing. I don’t think I’m going to bet this game though.

FINAL THOUGHTS: The public has jumped on the Bengals toward the end of the week, but it’s nothing too substantial. I still have no strong opinion on this game.


The Motivation. Edge: None.
This is an early start for both teams, as the Bengals and 49ers have been on the West Coast in the past several days.


The Spread. Edge: 49ers.

WalterFootball.com Calculated Spread: Bengals -3.
Las Vegas Hilton Advance Point Spread: 49ers -2.5.
Computer Model: Bengals -1.
DVOA Spread: Pick.




The Vegas. Edge: 49ers.
Slight lean on the Bengals.

Percentage of money on Cincinnati: 61% (9,000 bets)


The Trends. Edge: None.

Opening Line: 49ers -1.5.

Opening Total: 45.

Weather: Sunny, 82 degrees. Light wind.

Week 2 NFL Pick: 49ers 26, Bengals 23
49ers +1 (0 Units) — Correct; $0
Over 46 (0 Units) — Correct; $0
49ers 41, Bengals 17

---

Minnesota Vikings (1-0) at Green Bay Packers (1-0)
Line: Packers by 3. Total: 43.5.
Sunday, Sept. 15, 1:00 PM


The Matchup. Edge: Packers.

If you’re unaware of this, you can publish your own articles on this Web site and have them promoted via Twitter, Facebook and this page! Check out our Open Rant feature, where articles get promoted all the time. Some readers’ articles have gotten more than 3,000 views, so if you want to get your opinion heard, here’s a great way for you to do so!

Some recent Open Rant articles:

Reader on Trades That Need to Happen for Each Team

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Gxd333 Mock Draft

LSE Mock Draft

MINNESOTA OFFENSE: You may have seen earlier that I drafted or picked up the Packers defense in every single fantasy league I’m in. I suggest you do the same if they’re available. They are excellent, and they have a positive matchup this week.

The Vikings basically did whatever they wanted to against the Falcons last week, but that’s because Atlanta has an atrocious defense with no pass rush to speak of. The Packers can now get to the quarterback extremely effectively, thanks to some of the additions they made this offseason. They signed Za’Darius Smith and Preston Smith, both of whom were excellent in the opener against the Bears, despite going up against one of the best offensive lines in the NFL. The Vikings don’t have that sort of blocking talent, to say the least. In fact, Minnesota has one of the worst offensive lines in the NFL, so the Packers should be able to put tons of pressure on Kirk Cousins.

The Packers should be able to cover the Minnesota receivers well, too. Jaire Alexander and Kevin King have appeared to evolve into a pair of skilled cornerbacks, and it doesn’t hurt that they’re aided by two dynamic safeties, Adrian Amos and Darnell Savage. Green Bay also possesses a strong front that figures to limit opposing ground attacks. Dalvin Cook ripped right through Atlanta’s putrid run defense, but he won’t have that luxury in this matchup.

GREEN BAY OFFENSE: The Vikings clamped down on the Falcons last week, smothering Matt Ryan with ease. Atlanta couldn’t do anything versus Minnesota, but I suspect that Aaron Rodgers will have more success.

A big factor here is that Rodgers has much better protection than Matt Ryan. The Falcons haven’t been able to block all year, including the preseason, when the starting offensive line had issues against Washington’s backups. The Packer blockers gave Rodgers enough time following a slow start in the first quarter at Chicago, and the Bears obviously have a comparable defensive front to Minnesota.

The difference between the two defenses is that the Vikings struggle to cover in space. The Packers should be able to capitalize on this liability, as Jimmy Graham looked energized last week for the first time in ages.

RECAP: I wrote earlier that I can make up an NFL Pick of the Month if it ends in a push. Here’s the makeup. I absolutely love the Packers enough to put eight units on them. Here’s why:

1. The Packers are the better team. I don’t know how the public doesn’t realize this (more on that later.) They tied the Vikings at home last year and would have prevailed had Clay Matthews not been flagged for a bogus penalty. Yet, Rodgers was not healthy in that game, as he wrecked his knee the week before. Rodgers is 100 percent at the moment, so I don’t see why the Packers would suddenly lose to Minnesota at home.

2. I love Green Bay’s defense. Despite what happened Thursday night, it doesn’t seem as though people understand how good it is. The Vikings have a crap offensive line, so the Packers should be able to exploit it quite easily.

3. This spread is WAY off. I made this Green Bay -5.5, which means we’re going through a pair of key numbers, three and four. If my calculated spread is correct, and I don’t know why it wouldn’t be, the Packers have a 62.5-percent chance of covering this number, based on the spread value alone.

4. The public does not believe this spread is inaccurate. Look at all that public money on the Vikings! It’s rare that casual bettors wager heavily on Rodgers. I love it. Also, it’s a big deal that the Vikings are a public dog. Wagering on public dogs is one of the worst things you can do in the NFL. I’ve been tracking this over the past few years, and public dogs cover at about a 30-percent rate. Perhaps this is because this dynamic combines the Vegas and Motivational edges. This is going to be one of those instances where the TV anchor on every pre-game show will say, “Is anyone going to take the Packers in an upset?” and I’ll be yelling at the TV, “Green Bay is favored, you morons!”

5. The Packers have enjoyed extra time to prepare for this game. That’s a huge deal. I imagine that Packers defensive coordinator Mike Pettine has used the added time to find a way to dismantle Minnesota’s offense with his new talented defenders.

6. This is a revenge game for the Packers, as the Vikings humiliated them on national TV last year. Rodgers has a long memory – he still hates on Todd McShay for saying that Brian Brohm was the superior prospect – so I can’t imagine him not being eager to avenge that loss.

7. The DVOA numbers were just posted, and the DVOA line is Green Bay -4. The difference between -2.5 and -4 may not seem substantial, but it is. Again, we’re going through the main key number of three, plus getting a push at four.

8. Kirk Cousins sucks against good teams! He has an extensive history of choking in big games, and this is a big game against a great opponent.

There you have it. Eight reasons for this eight-unit selection. Go, Pack, go.

WEDNESDAY UPDATE/LOCKED IN: This spread opened -2.5 -115. The juice moved up, then the line was -3 +100. Now, it’s -3 -110 everywhere. This spread and juice continues to shift toward Green Bay, even though the public is all over Minnesota. The sharps love the Packers, so I’m worried this line/juice will continue to rise. With that in mind, I’m locking in -3 -105 at BetUS.

THURSDAY THOUGHTS: I locked this in at -3 -105. The spread hasn’t moved since, and there’s a chance -3 +100 becomes available, but I think -3 -105 is a great number, so I have no regrets.

SATURDAY NOTES: Man, the Packers are now -2.5 -117 at Bookmaker. I still think -3 -105 is a great number, but -2.5 -117 is far better for obvious reasons. I imagine this line moved because Packers left tackle David Bakhtiari is questionable. As long as Bakhtiari is the only Packer lineman who might miss this game, I’m OK with that. People made a huge deal about Taylor Lewan being out versus Cleveland last week, yet the Titans still won by 30. One missing lineman, even a great blocker like Bakhtiari, is something a team can overcome with enough notice.

FINAL THOUGHTS: The sharps have pounded the Packers on Sunday morning, perhaps because of the announcement that left tackle David Bakhtiari will play. It never really mattered too much to me, but it’s nice to know Bakhtiari will be there.


The Motivation. Edge: Packers.
This is a revenge game for the Packers, as the Vikings defeated them on national TV in the previous meeting.


The Spread. Edge: Packers.

WalterFootball.com Calculated Spread: Packers -5.5.
Las Vegas Hilton Advance Point Spread: Packers -3.
Computer Model: Packers -1.
DVOA Spread: Packers -4.




The Vegas. Edge: Packers. The Vikings are a public dog.

Percentage of money on Minnesota: 60% (11,000 bets)


The Trends. Edge: None.

History: Packers have won 11 of the last 15 meetings Aaron Rodgers has played fully, excluding a 2018 tie.

Mike Zimmer is 53-27 ATS as head coach of the Vikings.

Packers are 47-29 ATS in divisional games since 2006.

Aaron Rodgers is 88-61 ATS since 2009.

Opening Line: Packers -2.5.

Opening Total: 46.

Weather: Cloudy, 72 degrees. Light wind.

Week 2 NFL Pick: Packers 28, Vikings 16
Packers -3 -105 (8 Units – September NFL Pick) – BetUS — Correct; +$800
Under 43.5 (0 Units) — Correct; $0
Packers 21, Vikings 16

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Week 2 NFL Picks – Late Games
Chiefs at Raiders, Bears at Broncos, Saints at Rams, Eagles at Falcons, Browns at Jets




Prop/Teaser/Parlay Picks
A list of some of my favorite team/player prop picks this week
(Offense & defensive ROY picks to be counted whenever winners are announced.) Picks carried over on a week-to-week basis will be in black.

Prop/teaser/parlay picks posted in Week 2 NFL Picks – Late Games



2024 NFL Mock Draft - April 16


NFL Power Rankings - Feb. 22


Fantasy Football Rankings - Feb. 19


NFL Picks - Feb. 12




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My Team-by-Team ATS Record
This section shows how well I do when picking each team this year. The purpose is to see how well I read each team. Pushes are not displayed. Winning/losing streak in parentheses.

Cowboys: 8-9	Bears: 11-4	Bucs: 6-11	49ers: 10-7
Eagles: 7-7	Lions: 9-8	Falcons: 8-9	Cardinals: 8-9
Giants: 7-9	Packers: 5-12	Panthers: 8-9	Rams: 8-9
Redskins: 14-3	Vikings: 6-9	Saints: 10-7	Seahawks: 7-9
Bills: 9-7	Bengals: 12-5	Colts: 7-10	Broncos: 9-6
Dolphins: 6-11	Browns: 11-5	Jaguars: 13-4	Chargers: 8-9
Jets: 8-9	Ravens: 11-6	Texans: 5-12	Chiefs: 5-10
Patriots: 7-9	Steelers: 11-6	Titans: 9-8	Raiders: 6-9
Divisional: 50-35 (2011-22: 558-526)	2x Game Edge: 36-24 (2011-22: 363-361)	2x Motivation Edge: 32-36 (2011-22: 478-405)	2x Spread Edge: 41-40 (2011-22: 197-168)
2x Vegas Edge: 41-38 (2011-22: 407-406)	2x Trend Edge: 15-13 (2011-22: 306-279)	Double Edge: 17-13 (2011-22: 190-172)	Triple Edge: 1-1 (2011-22: 32-36)