NFL Picks Against the Spread: Week 3, 2019

NFL Picks (Preseason 2019): 14-6 (+$1,535)
NFL Picks (Week 1, 2019): 5-10-1 (-$515)
NFL Picks (Week 2, 2019): 10-6 (+$140)

NFL Picks (2019): 29-22-1 (+$1,160)
NFL Picks (2018): 140-134-12 (+$845)
NFL Picks (2017): 137-147-10 (-$4,300)
NFL Picks (2016): 148-127-10 (+$780)
NFL Picks (2015): 133-138-10 (-$3,215)
NFL Picks (2014): 143-133-7 (-$1,885)
NFL Picks (2013): 144-131-8 (+$7,825)
NFL Picks (2012): 130-145-8 (-$7,445)
NFL Picks (2011): 137-133-12 (-$1,335)
NFL Picks (2010): 144-131-8 (+$5,880)
NFL Picks (2009): 151-124-9 (+$4,235)
NFL Picks (2008): 136-125-6 (+$6,105)
NFL Picks (2007): 162-135-10 (+$3,585)
If you don’t quite understand the line, total or anything else, go to my Sports Betting FAQ.

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Vegas betting action updated Sept. 22, 11:25 a.m. ET. Follow @walterfootball for updates.


Go to Week 3 NFL Picks – Early Games







New York Giants (0-2) at Tampa Bay Buccaneers (1-1)
Line: Buccaneers by 6. Total: 48.
Sunday, Sept. 22, 4:05 PM


The Matchup. Edge: None.

The 2019 Adventures of Tom Brady’s Haircuts are here!



To read about this, check out the 2019 Adventures of Tom Brady’s Haircuts via the link!

NEW YORK OFFENSE: It’s finally over. Eli Manning is no longer the starting quarterback of the Giants. He has been benched in favor of Daniel Jones, meaning one of the most mediocre quarterbacks in NFL history finishes his career with a very fitting 116-116 record.

This was the correct decision, assuming that Sterling Shepard is healthy. I argued that the Giants should wait until Week 5 to start Jones because that’s when Golden Tate will come off suspension. However, if Shepard is available, Jones will at least have one downfield threat. Assuming this is the case, Jones will play well. He was terrific in the preseason, outside of some ball-security issues. He doesn’t exactly have the most difficult matchup, as the Buccaneers have some major liabilities in their secondary.

The Giants, of course, will funnel their offense through Saquon Barkley and Evan Engram. Barkley should have a great game despite Christian McCaffrey’s lackluster showing last Thursday. Engram, conversely, has a terrific matchup, as the Buccaneers had absolutely no answer for Greg Olsen.

TAMPA BAY OFFENSE: Speaking of great matchups, Jameis Winston needs to take advantage of this one, as the Giants have one of the worst defenses in the NFL. It doesn’t seem as though they can do anything right. They have no pass rush; they can’t cover anyone; and they can’t stop the run. Otherwise, they’re pretty OK on defense!

Winston has the weaponry to expose New York’s defense, but will he be able to exploit a great matchup? I’m not sure. Winston is often aloof, particularly in the red zone. I could see him moving the chains well in between the 20s, then stalling deep in New York territory, which is something he often does.

Something I expect to see is Mike Evans rebounding from two pedestrian performances. Evans was dealing with some sort of sickness ahead of Week 1, so he likely wasn’t 100 percent a few days later. With nine days off, Evans should be back to his former self, especially if he’s matched up against cornerback DeAndre Baker, who doesn’t seem to know how to play football.

RECAP: Apparently, a lot can change in a week. The Buccaneers were -3.5 on the Westgate advance line. But because they defeated a hobbled Cam Newton and the Panthers, the spread has shot up three points.

Am I crazy, or is this too much of an overreaction? I love betting against overreactions, so that’s what I’ll be doing with this game.

This spread is just way too high. I made it Tampa Bay -5, while the computer model says it should be -4. We’re getting good value going against a Buccaneer team that could be “smelling itself,” as Kenny Ortiz used to put it, thanks to their big win on national TV. Tampa will be battling the Rams next week, so this could be a look-ahead situation.

I have two concerns. First, is the weather. If it’ll be in the 90s, I’ll back off my Giants bet. Second, is Shepard’s availability. I don’t want to back a team with absolutely zero downfield receiving threats.

I’m going to pencil in the Giants as a three-unit wager, but that could change depending on the weather and Shepard’s availability.

THURSDAY THOUGHTS: Sterling Shepard has yet to practice, but it sounds like he has a good chance to clear concussion protocol soon. I really like the Giants with Shepard back, assuming the weather cooperates. I typically check weather on Friday night, so we’ll see what that tells us.

SATURDAY NOTES: Sterling Shepard has cleared concussion protocol, while the weather is expected to be “cooler” than 90 degrees, which is nice. All of this makes for a nice play on New York. The sharps have taken notice as well, betting New York. I’m locking this in now, as the line seems to be heading toward +5.5.

SATURDAY NOTES II: I’m taking the Giants moneyline for half a unit. The best number is +230 at BetUS and Bookmaker.

SUNDAY MORNING NOTES: I’m glad we were able to lock this in at +6 yesterday because this spread has dropped to +5 or +5.5 in many books. The sharps are all over New York.

FINAL THOUGHTS: The sharps continue to pound the Giants, with this spread dropping to +5, and even +4.5 at CRIS. I’m glad we were able to lock in the +6 earlier, but I would still like New York for a unit or so at this number.




The Motivation. Edge: Giants.
The Buccaneers could be reading the press clippings too much after their win, and they might be preparing for their battle against the Rams next week.


The Spread. Edge: Giants.

WalterFootball.com Calculated Spread: Buccaneers -5.
Las Vegas Hilton Advance Point Spread: Buccaneers -3.5.
Computer Model: Buccaneers -4.
DVOA Spread: Buccaneers -5.


The Vegas. Edge: Buccaneers.
The public and sharps have jumped on the Giants.

Percentage of money on New York: 68% (13,000 bets)


The Trends. Edge: Giants.

Road Team is 91-57 ATS in Buccaneers games since 2009.

Buccaneers are 24-51 ATS at home in the previous 75 instances.

Opening Line: Buccaneers -7.

Opening Total: 48.5.

Weather: Sunny, 88 degrees. Mild wind, 15 mph.

Week 3 NFL Pick: Buccaneers 24, Giants 23
Giants +6 (3 Units) – FanDuel/5Dimes — Correct; +$300
Giants +230 (0.5 Units) – BetUS/Bookmaker — Correct; +$115
Under 48 (0 Units) — Incorrect; $0
Giants 32, Buccaneers 31

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Carolina Panthers (0-2) at Arizona Cardinals (0-1-1)
Line: Panthers by 2.5. Total: 45.
Sunday, Sept. 22, 4:05 PM


The Matchup. Edge: Cardinals.

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CAROLINA OFFENSE: This spread has been taken off the board in most sportsbooks because Cam Newton’s status is unclear. I was hoping Newton would have enough time to heal with nine days of rest, but apparently not. His foot injury has severely limited him through two games, and now it seems as though it could sideline him in Week 3.

Regardless of whether or not Newton plays, the Panthers will have difficulty moving the chains outside of Christian McCaffrey and Greg Olsen. McCaffrey had a horrific Thursday night performance, but he should rebound against an Arizona team that has severe problems defending the middle of the field. Greg Olsen figures to have a nice performance for that reason as well.

However, the Panthers will be limited otherwise. Even if Newton plays, there’s a good chance he won’t be 100 percent, so I’m not sure he’ll be able to expose the problems Arizona has at cornerback. His lacking mobility will also hurt with Chandler Jones and Terrell Suggs breathing down his neck. If Newton sits out, the pedestrian Kyle Allen will get the nod, which won’t bode well for Carolina.

ARIZONA OFFENSE: Kyler Murray got off to a rough start to begin his NFL career, struggling to do much of anything in the first three quarters. He’s been excellent since, however. He nearly led the Cardinals to a come-from-behind victory over the Lions, then came within six points of beating the Ravens.

Murray connected with Larry Fitzgerald and Christian Kirk for some impressive passes versus Baltimore. I realize that the Ravens don’t have a great defense anymore, but it’s not like the Panthers have a stellar secondary either. Carolina does, however, possess a strong pass rush, so this could be problematic for Murray at times, especially in the red zone, where he struggled last week.

I don’t think the Cardinals will have much success winning in the trenches. The Panthers beefed up their front line during the offseason, and that has at least not disappointed. I don’t see David Johnson having much success finding running lanes.

RECAP: As mentioned earlier, this spread is off the board because of Newton’s uncertainty. Before I heard the news, I was planning on picking the Panthers because I thought there was a chance that the nine days would allow Newton to heal.

Well, apparently not. Not only has Newton not healed; he has seemingly gotten worse because he can’t practice anymore!

I’m going to pencil in the Cardinals at the moment, but that could obviously change with any breaking news that we’ll get later in the week. Check back, or follow @walterfootball for updates.

THURSDAY THOUGHTS: Cam Newton is in a walking boot, so it doesn’t appear as though he’ll be able to play. Bookmaker has just posted a line of Arizona -2.5. Everyone will be on the Cardinals at that spread, so I’m inclined to side with the Panthers. Carolina has the better overall team, and Kyle Allen hasn’t been terrible in his brief action in the NFL. In fact, the Panthers might be better with Allen than the banged-up version of Newton we saw, given that Newton had the third-highest percentage of uncatchable passes thrown through two weeks, trailing only Ryan Fitzpatrick and Mitchell Trubisky. I don’t have any interest in betting this game at the moment, but I may change my mind if this line goes to +3.

SATURDAY NOTES: Cam Newton has officially been ruled out. We have a small sample size on Kyle Allen, though he looked good in Week 17 last year. I originally planned on selecting the Panthers, but I’m switching to Arizona after seeing the injury report. Kawann Short and Bruce Irvin are out, which severely diminishes Carolina’s front seven.

SUNDAY MORNING NOTES: I’m not confident in my zero-unit pick here, so I’m definitely not planning on betting this game.

FINAL THOUGHTS: I was wondering if we would see a +3 for Carolina, but no such line has emerged. I imagine the sportsbooks would be terrified of a huge flow of money on the Panthers at that line.


The Motivation. Edge: Panthers.
The Panthers were embarrassed on national television, so they could use this as a statement game.


The Spread. Edge: TBA.

WalterFootball.com Calculated Spread: Pick.
Las Vegas Hilton Advance Point Spread: Panthers -3.5.
Computer Model: Panthers -1.
DVOA Spread: Pick.




The Vegas. Edge: Panthers.
The Cardinals were a public dog prior to the Cam Newton news.

Percentage of money on Arizona: 64% (11,000 bets)


The Trends. Edge: Cardinals.

Cardinals are 35-19 ATS at home as underdogs or favorites of less than -3 since 2007.

Opening Line: Panthers -3.

Opening Total: 45.5.

Weather: Dome.

Week 3 NFL Pick: Cardinals 27, Panthers 24
Cardinals -2.5 (0 Units) — Incorrect; $0
Over 45 (0 Units) — Correct; $0
Panthers 38, Cardinals 20

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New Orleans Saints (1-1) at Seattle Seahawks (2-0)
Line: Seahawks by 5. Total: 44.5.
Sunday, Sept. 22, 4:25 PM


The Matchup. Edge: Saints.

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NEW ORLEANS OFFENSE: If you’ve been sleeping under a rock for some reason, Drew Brees tore some thumb ligaments against the Rams and will be out six weeks as a result. Teddy Bridgewater took over for Brees and was very lackluster, posting just six points in Brees’ absence.

I would love to see Sean Payton name Taysom Hill his starter, as the BYU alumnus was very impressive in the preseason, while Bridgewater was just inconsistent. However, I could see Bridgewater perform on a high level in this contest. The Seahawks have an abomination of a secondary. They allowed Andy Dalton to throw for 400 yards in Week 1, then had trouble stopping Mason Rudolph when he came in relief of an injured Ben Roethlisberger. The only reason the Steelers didn’t eclipse 30 points was that Roethlisberger failed to complete basic throws for a half because of his elbow injury.

Bridgewater has plenty of talent at his disposal, and I don’t know how anyone in the Seahawks’ secondary will be able to deal with Michael Thomas. They couldn’t even prevent John Ross from going off! They have no pass rush to speak of, so Bridgewater will have plenty of time to scan the field, unlike this past Sunday.

SEATTLE OFFENSE: The Saints, conversely, are very capable of putting heat on opposing quarterbacks. They sacked the mobile Deshaun Watson six times in the opener, and they managed to rattle Jared Goff last week, limiting the frazzled quarterback to just six points until the middle of the third quarter. The Saints’ defense became exhausted, however, and finally relented late in the game. If their offense is more effective in this matchup, as I expect it to be, the players on the stop unit won’t have the same fatigue issues.

Russell Wilson faces a tough task here, as he’s receiving pitiful blocking from his front line. The Saints will swarm the backfield, so I expect them to accumulate a half-dozen sacks or so once again. Meanwhile, D.K. Metcalf will receive some attention from talented cornerback Marshon Lattimore, so I don’t expect him to do much for a change.

The Saints also have the personnel to stop the run well, so I don’t think Chris Carson and Rashaad Penny will thrive on the ground. Carson could, however, be effective as a receiver out of the backfield, thanks to New Orleans’ lackluster linebackers.

RECAP: Something I’ve had success with over the years is betting on good teams missing their quarterbacks for the first game. The thinking is that the players will perform at 110-percent efficiency in an attempt to prove that they can win without this signal-caller.

The Saints are one of two teams in this sort of situation this week. Everyone seems to be writing them off because Brees is injured, but they have a great roster overall, and certainly a superior team compared to Seattle. Excluding quarterback and linebacker, where are the Seahawks better? I know Bridgewater is pretty pedestrian, but he has a terrific matchup against a horrific Seattle secondary that hasn’t been able to stop Dalton or Rudolph thus far.

The Seahawks, thanks to their shoddy defensive backfield and poor blocking, are not good enough to be favored by more than a field goal over a solid opponent. Think about it: They beat the hapless Bengals by just one at home, and then only defeated the Steelers by two even though Roethlisberger couldn’t complete basic throws. The computer model agrees with this, listing Seattle -3 as the correct number. The DVOA line is also -3.

I love the Saints for all of those reasons. Oh, and I almost forgot: More than 80 percent of the betting action is on the host, yet the line appears to be dropping!

This is one of my top plays of the week. I’m on the Saints for five units. I’m also locking this in now because it appears as though the sharps are causing this spread to drop. This spread is currently +5 at BetUS.

THURSDAY THOUGHTS: It sounds like there’s a chance Taysom Hill will start this game. That would make me like the Saints even more than I already do, if that’s even possible.

SATURDAY NOTES: There was already lots of public money on the Seahawks. Some sharp action has joined in as well, and I can’t figure out why. I still think the Saints are a great play.

SATURDAY NOTES II: Here’s another moneyline play. I like the Saints at +190, available at FanDuel. This will be another half-unit play.

SUNDAY MORNING NOTES: This spread continues to fluctuate between +4 and +5. Locking this in wasn’t a great decision, but at least it wasn’t a bad one either.

FINAL THOUGHTS: If you were patient, you can get New Orleans +5 -105 at BetUS or Bookmaker. I still love the Saints, but I’m glad we didn’t miss out on a +6, or anything.


The Motivation. Edge: Saints.
The Saints will be out to prove that they can win without Drew Brees.


The Spread. Edge: Saints.

WalterFootball.com Calculated Spread: Seahawks -4.
Las Vegas Hilton Advance Point Spread: Seahawks -1 (Brees).
Computer Model: Seahawks -3.
DVOA Spread: Seahawks -3.




The Vegas. Edge: Saints.
Everyone is betting on the Seahawks.

Percentage of money on Seattle: 74% (15,000 bets)


The Trends. Edge: Seahawks.

Seahawks are 25-7 ATS in September home games since 2000.

Seahawks are 46-29 ATS as home favorites since 2007.

Opening Line: Seahawks -4.5.

Opening Total: 45.

Weather: Possible light rain, 63 degrees. Light wind.

Week 3 NFL Pick: Saints 23, Seahawks 20
Saints +5 (5 Units) – BetUS — Correct; +$500
Saints +190 (0.5 Units) – FanDuel — Correct; +$95
Under 44.5 (0 Units) — Incorrect; $0
Saints 33, Seahawks 27

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Houston Texans (1-1) at San Angeles Chargers (1-1)
Line: Chargers by 3. Total: 48.5.
Sunday, Sept. 22, 4:25 PM


The Matchup. Edge: Chargers.

Emmitt on the Brink Season 12 is underway! Emmitt says goodbye to his son, then hears of speculation that he could be relieved of his job as NFL commissioner.

HOUSTON OFFENSE: What the hell happened to the Texans last week, specifically Deshaun Watson? They were favored by nearly double digits, yet Watson struggled to move the chains at all. If it wasn’t for a Gardner Minshew strip-sack, Houston would have finished with single digits and may have lost the game! It’s not like Watson had a difficult matchup, as the Jaguars’ defense was missing three starters and just saw Patrick Mahomes torch their ineffective safeties.

This befuddled me until Monday evening, and then I realized something: Watson might be injured, stemming from the hard fall he took against the Saints in Week 1. I can’t say that for certain, but that’s the only explanation I could come up with. Watson was great in that second half, but what if that was because of a pain injection? What if things got worse for him the ensuing week? Again, I’m just speculating here, but it makes the most sense.

Regardless, what we do know is that Watson won’t be protected well once again. He took six sacks in the opener and was under siege against the Jaguars. The Chargers have a pair of prolific edge rushers that will make things difficult for Watson. Meanwhile, Casey Hayward and Desmond King should be able to slow down DeAndre Hopkins and the other Houston receivers just a bit.

SAN ANGELES OFFENSE: Philip Rivers knows a thing or two about a poor offensive line. His blocking is horrible for the most part, though third-year guard Dan Feeney, perhaps the long-lost son of George Feeney, has performed on a high level. Still, it won’t be enough to keep Whitney Mercilus and J.J. Watt out of the backfield, though it’s worth noting that Watt hasn’t been as dominant as usual this season. Mercilus, conversely, has been an animal. Left tackle Trent Scott – probably no relation to Michael Scott – has no chance against Mercilus.

The Chargers and Texans are comparable as far as their pass rushes are concerned, but we can’t say the same thing about their secondaries. Houston’s defensive backfield couldn’t keep Minshew from driving down the field twice on them late in the game, and that was after Drew Brees torched them mercilessly. I don’t see how they’ll be able to cover Keenan Allen and Mike Williams.

The Texans can at least stop the run well, but that doesn’t mean Austin Ekeler won’t be productive. He’s very effective as a receiver out of the backfield, so he’ll still be able to produce that way.

RECAP: If I’m right, and Watson isn’t completely healthy, the Chargers are a great play this week. I already liked them to make them a three-unit bet at the very least, so this will be an even larger wager.

I don’t understand why the public has such a great interest in the Texans. They looked horrible against a short-handed Jacksonville team. Had Leonard Fournette stretched out the ball on the two-point attempt, Houston would be 0-2 right now. If so, wouldn’t the Chargers be favored by way more than -3? I certainly think so.

The Texans can’t block, and that’s really going to hurt them in this matchup, especially if Watson isn’t fully healthy. I usually don’t like to wager on the Chargers at home, but I’m going to make an exception here and bet four units on the San Angeles squad.

THURSDAY THOUGHTS: Despite public money on the Texans, this line is creeping up to -3.5 in some books.

SATURDAY NOTES: I see some -3 -115s available, which might be worth locking in, but I’m going to be patient. I still love the Chargers.

SUNDAY MORNING NOTES: I’m going to lock this in because Pinnacle has gone to -3.5 +104, while CRIS is now at -3 -119. This spread appears to be trending toward -3.5, so I’m going to lock in the -3 -115 at BetUS.

FINAL THOUGHTS: This line hasn’t moved off -3, but the juice is -120 in most books. I still like the Chargers quite a bit.


The Motivation. Edge: Chargers.
Everyone seems to be writing off the Chargers, who are going against public dogs this week.


The Spread. Edge: None.

WalterFootball.com Calculated Spread: Chargers -1.
Las Vegas Hilton Advance Point Spread: Chargers -3.5.
Computer Model: Chargers -4.
DVOA Spread: Chargers -3.


The Vegas. Edge: Chargers.
The Texans are a massive public dog.

Percentage of money on San Angeles: 73% (13,000 bets)


The Trends. Edge: None.

Opening Line: Chargers -3.5.

Opening Total: 48.

Weather: Partly cloudy, 86 degrees. Light wind.

Week 3 NFL Pick: Chargers 31, Texans 24
Chargers -3 -115 (4 Units) – BetUS — Incorrect; -$460
Over 48.5 (0 Units) — Incorrect; $0
Texans 27, Chargers 20

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Pittsburgh Steelers (0-2) at San Francisco 49ers (2-0)
Line: 49ers by 6.5. Total: 44.
Sunday, Sept. 22, 4:25 PM


The Matchup. Edge: Steelers.

A reminder that Jerks of the Week for this week is up, so just click the link. This week’s jerks entry is the third entry of my trip to Las Vegas. In this entry, I continue to discuss one of the biggest jerks ever, Mojito Bro.

PITTSBURGH OFFENSE: If Saints fans thought their team was getting screwed by everything, ranging from horrible calls to poor injury variance, they can at least look at the Steelers, who lost Ben Roethlisberger for the year with an elbow injury. Roethlisberger hasn’t been able to complete routine throws in either of his two games, so it’s unclear when he suffered the injury. What we do know is that the offense will function better without the decrepit version of himself.

Mason Rudolph looked good in relief in Week 2, albeit against a horrific Seattle secondary. The 49ers’ defensive backfield has been better thus far in 2019, albeit with a small sample size. It’s also worth noting that their pass rush has been able to beat up on some bad offensive lines this season. The Steelers have a good blocking unit – certainly the best San Francisco will be up against so far this year – so Rudolph should be protected well. If so, he’ll be able to connect with some of his talented weapons. This includes Vance Refrigeration McDonald, who caught two touchdowns, as well as James Washington, whom Rudolph had a great connection with in the preseason, perhaps as a result of their familiarity with each other from playing together at Oklahoma State.

One thing the Steelers won’t be able to do is run the ball. The 49ers just clamped down on Joe Mixon. While the Steelers have a far better offensive line than Cincinnati, James Conner isn’t nearly as talented as Mixon. Besides, Conner may not be 100 percent, thanks to an injury he suffered in Week 2.

SAN FRANCISCO OFFENSE: Jimmy Garoppolo completed one pass for zero yards and an interception in a nationally televised preseason game. It didn’t look like he trusted his knee at all, but that apparently has changed. He torched the Bengals with ease this past Sunday, showing no ill effects from his knee surgery.

However, there’s a major difference between battling the Bengals and the Steelers. While Pittsburgh doesn’t have a great secondary – though it’ll be aided by Minkah Fitzpatrick’s arrival – the team is capable of putting lots of pressure on opposing quarterbacks. I like San Francisco’s offensive line when everyone is healthy, but that’s not the case at the moment, as Joe Staley will be out for several weeks. Staley will be missed in this contest, as I anticipate the Steelers applying plenty of pressure on Garoppolo.

The Steelers are also stellar against the run, so Garoppolo will have to beat them with his arm. Garoppolo, despite playing well overall last week, made some sketchy passes, including one where he carelessly lofted an interception into triple coverage. This would concern me if I were a 49ers supporter with this impending matchup.

RECAP: I mentioned in the Saints-Seahawks capsule that there were two games that fit the model of a good team playing at 110-percent efficiency to prove that it can win with its backup quarterback. This is obviously the second one.

Aside from their secondary, the Steelers have a great roster. They’re 0-2 right now because Roethlisberger couldn’t complete basic throws against the Patriots and Seahawks, and despite this, they nearly defeated Seattle with a second-half surge from Rudolph. They’ll be desperate to avoid 0-3, so they’ll be playing with so much more energy than the 49ers, who are in a very unfamiliar role as a large favorite.

There isn’t as much action on the 49ers as the Seahawks, and the difference between the spread and the calculated lines isn’t going through any key numbers, but I still like Pittsburgh enough to make a four-unit wager. I’d think about moving to five units at +7, but it appears as though the sharps have removed that spread.

THURSDAY THOUGHTS: I’m cooling a bit on this Steelers pick. Unlike the Seahawks-Saints game, I can’t definitively say that the team missing its starting quarterback has the better roster. The 49ers have crushed their first two opponents, so they could be one of the better teams in the NFL. I still like Pittsburgh, but I’m going to drop the unit count.

SATURDAY NOTES: Both Nick Bosa and Dee Ford are questionable for this game. Bosa has been limited in practice all week, which is a good sign for him. Ford, conversely, has barely practiced and isn’t “fully there yet.” This obviously bodes well for the Steelers. I still like Pittsburgh for a few units.

SUNDAY MORNING NOTES: I’m locking this one in as well. The Steelers are now +6.5 -120 at Pinnacle, while CRIS has moved this line to +6 -106. The +6.5s might disappear quickly because of sharp action, so I’m going to lock in the +6.5 -110 at BetUS.

FINAL THOUGHTS: It was a good thing we locked in +6.5 because sharp action appeared late to knock this down to +6 at some books.


The Motivation. Edge: Steelers.
The Steelers, looking to avoid 0-3, will be playing extra hard for their backup quarterback.


The Spread. Edge: None.

WalterFootball.com Calculated Spread: 49ers -6.
Las Vegas Hilton Advance Point Spread: Steelers -1.5 (Roethlisberger).
Computer Model: 49ers -7.
DVOA Spread: 49ers -7.


The Vegas. Edge: None.
Will people want to bet on Mason Rudolph? Apparently so.

Percentage of money on San Francisco: 52% (18,000 bets)


The Trends. Edge: None.

Opening Line: 49ers -7.

Opening Total: 43.5.

Weather: Partly cloudy, 84 degrees. Light wind.

Week 3 NFL Pick: 49ers 27, Steelers 23
Steelers +6.5 (3 Units) – BetUS — Correct; +$300
Over 44 (0 Units) — Push; $0
49ers 24, Steelers 20

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Los Angeles Rams (2-0) at Cleveland Browns (1-1)
Line: Rams by 3.5. Total: 47.
Sunday, Sept. 22, 8:20 PM


The Matchup. Edge: Rams.

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LOS ANGELES OFFENSE: The Rams are the luckiest team in the NFL. They scraped by the Panthers despite being outgained in yards per play, despite the fact that Cam Newton’s foot was so bad that Newton didn’t want to scramble. Then, they never really faced a challenge from the Saints because Drew Brees was knocked out in the early stages of the game. Los Angeles is 2-0 right now, yet it could be 0-2 under different circumstances.

The biggest problem with the Rams is that they can’t block. Their new interior offensive line has struggled, while left tackle Andrew Whitworth is finally beginning to show his age. Jared Goff gets rattled under pressure, so he’s no longer able to pick defenses apart behind an elite blocking unit. The Browns have a great defensive front that should be able to overwhelm Goff.

However, the Rams will have some chances to move the ball. The Browns have some weaknesses in their secondary, and the Rams are loaded at receiver, so on the rare instances Goff has time in the pocket, he could deliver some nice passes to one of his talented wideouts. Meanwhile, Todd Gurley will be used as a receiving threat against the Browns, who have sketchy personnel in the middle of their defense.

CLEVELAND OFFENSE: The Browns also have blocking problems, though their issues are on the edge, rather than the interior. Dante Fowler is having a great start to his 2019 campaign, so blocking him will be problematic for Greg Robinson. Of course, Aaron Donald will cause the most disruption, even though Cleveland’s inside blocking isn’t too bad.

The pressure could get to Baker Mayfield, which could force some poor throws. Mayfield’s accuracy has been all over the place. He’ll make a great throw on one play, then sail a pass over his receiver’s head on the next. I don’t understand why he’s so inconsistent, but that will need to improve in order for the Browns to come close to living up to expectations.

Unlike the Rams, the Browns may not be able to establish much with their running game. The Rams are excellent versus the rush, despite what Christian McCaffrey did to them in the opener. Nick Chubb is very talented, and he’ll have some nice gains, but the Rams should be able to restrict him for the most part.

RECAP: There is a ton of action on the Rams, but I’m not sure I want to fade the public in this game. Perhaps I’d do so at +3.5, but not at +3.

As much as I think the Rams are overrated, the Browns were even worse in this regard entering the season. People thought this team was going to win the Super Bowl, yet it lost by 30 to the Titans and needed an 89-yard touchdown from Odell Beckham Jr. to beat the Luke Falk-led Jets by more than 13. Mayfield is not playing well, while the offensive line is struggling to block. Meanwhile, Freddie Kitchens seems to be outmatched. Sean McVay has had one more day to prepare for this game than Kitchens, so I imagine McVay coaching circles around his counterpart.

With so much money coming in on the Rams, betting this game is unappealing. Perhaps something will change later in the week, but I don’t see a great angle for wagering on either team.

THURSDAY THOUGHTS: I’m still leaning toward the Rams as a non-wager. If this moves to -3.5, I may reconsider, given that the most likely result of this contest is Los Angeles winning by three.

SATURDAY NOTES: This spread has risen to -3.5. I know I said I’d consider betting the Browns at that number, but I don’t think I can do it after seeing the injury report. Cleveland could be missing its entire secondary. Safety Damarious Randall is out with a concussion. Safety Morgan Burnett is questionable after missing practice all week. Cornerbacks Denzel Ward and Greedy Williams are questionable after being downgraded to out for Friday’s practice because of hamstring issues. The Browns are a mess right now, so I’m sticking with the Rams, and I may even bet on them.

SUNDAY MORNING NOTES: It sounds like Greedy Williams will play, but Denzel Ward will be out. I may lock this pick in during my 3:45 p.m. update.

PICK LOCKED IN: Denzel Ward is definitely out, while Greedy Williams is iffy to play. I would lock this in now at -3.5 (for two units) at any sportsbook because this spread could skyrocket prior to kickoff. FanDuel has the best number at -3.5 -105.

FINAL THOUGHTS: I’m glad we were able to get -3.5, though I’d feel far more comfortable at -3. This spread has risen, as all four members of Cleveland’s secondary are out. I would consider a one-unit wager on -4, which is available at Bookmaker and BetUS.


The Motivation. Edge: None.
No edge found.


The Spread. Edge: None.

WalterFootball.com Calculated Spread: Rams -1.
Las Vegas Hilton Advance Point Spread: Rams -2.5.
Computer Model: Rams -4.
DVOA Spread: Rams -1.


The Vegas. Edge: Browns.
Everyone and their evil stepmother is betting the Rams.

Percentage of money on Los Angeles: 82% (25,000 bets)


The Trends. Edge: None.

Opening Line: Rams -2.5.

Opening Total: 51.

Weather: Cloudy, 80 degrees. Mild wind, 13 mph.

Week 3 NFL Pick: Rams 38, Browns 24
Rams -3.5 -105 (2 Units) – FanDuel — Correct; +$200
Over 47 (0 Units) — Incorrect; $0
Rams 20, Browns 13

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Chicago Bears (1-1) at Washington Redskins (0-2)
Line: Bears by 4. Total: 41.
Monday, Sept. 23, 8:15 PM


The Matchup. Edge: Bears.

This week on ESPN, we’re going to have awful announcers calling the shots instead the great preseason homers like Kevin Reilly, Ron Wolfley and Don Tollefson, inept ESPN guys Emmitt, Herman Edwards, and aloof people like Dan Fouts and Jay Cutler. Here’s what it would sound like if these seven dudes (and some special guests) were calling this game:

Reilly: Welcome to the city of Chicago, where the Chicago Cubs battle the Washington Redskins. Guys, the city of Chicago is a real dangerous place because that guy from the TV show got strangled by two guys who said this is mega country. Mother put me in bubble wrap, so this wouldn’t happen to me. I see you guys don’t have your bubble wrap, so I hope guys don’t strangle you and talk about mega country.

Emmitt: Jesse, it seem like you’re confuse yourselves. This is the city of Washington, which happen to be the capital of Seattle. I do not knowed why you think we in Chicago, the Windy Apple.

Reilly: Emmitt, I think you’re mistaken. This is clearly Chicago. Mother doesn’t put me in bubble wrap just to go to Washington.

Emmitt: Look like we at an imp past. We cannot end in a ties because a ties is like having sexual with your sister. So let us ask Jameis Witten what he think where we are.

Jason Witten: Hello, my name is Jason Witten and I just came out of retirement. I’ll tell you what, Joe. Chicago is a real good city. It is real good because a lot of things in the city are real good. But then you look at Washington, and you think, that’s a real good city, too. It’s real good because a lot of aspects of Washington are real good. And when you have two real good cities, you not only have one city that’s real good, but you have two real cities that are real good, too.

Reilly: Hey producers, this is the worst analyst you’ve ever hired. He doesn’t give us any analysis, and he keeps calling me Joe! My name’s not Joe!

Tollefson: Now, Kevin, let’s not allow a great situation to go to waste. Perhaps we can take advantage of this by robbing Jason Witten out of millions. Hey Jason, Kevin here thinks his name is Joe because he’s going senile. How about you give me a few million so we can raise awareness for this disease? I promise I won’t buy many hookers with your millions.

Jason Witten: Hello, my name is Jason Witten and I just came out of retirement. Thanks, Joe. That sounds like a real good idea. It’s a real good idea because it’s idea, and it’s real good, so it’s a real good idea.

Reilly: Yes! I can’t wait to buy Carson Wentz bobble head dolls with the money we’re stealing from Jason Witten!

Tollefson: Who is this “we” you speak of? This is my doing, and I’m going to purchase lots of hookers so they can cook and clean for me in the nude.

Reilly: Waaahhhh! That’s not fair! Tell him I should get some of Jason Witten’s money, sideline reporter daddy!

Cutler: Meh, sounds like too much effort, and I don’t even know who Jason Witten is.

Fouts: Jay, I’m going to explain who Jason Witten is to you. There’s a guy in this booth, his name is Jason. Check. Let’s look at his last name. Witten. If you combine the two names, you get Witten Jason. But if you go in reverse order, it’s Jason Witten. Hence, this right here is Jason Witten.

Wolfley: DAN, THAT MAY NOT NECESSARILY BE TRUE. THERE’S A POLTERGEIST WITH TWO NICKELS IN HIS POCKET IN THIS BOOTH, AND IF I’M NOT MISTAKEN, I BELIEVE HIS NAME IS JASON WITTEN AS WELL, SO WE NEED SOME CLARIFICATION.

Reilly: Shut up, losers, and shut up, Herm, I know you’re itching to talk!

Herm: I-

Reilly: I said shut up! This is bulls**t because I can’t buy more Eagles toys after conning Jason Witten!

Charles Davis: Kevin, looks like you want to talk about feces, Kevin, after you said bulls**t, Kevin so let’s talk about feces, Kevin. When a duck s**ts, what do you call it, Kevin? How about duck s**t, Kevin? When a squirrel s**ts, what do you call it, Kevin? What about squirrel s**t, Kevin? Let’s try this one, Kevin: What do you call it when a moose s**ts, Kevin? It’s called moose s**t, Kevin. Duh, Kevin. Here’s one where you guess, Kevin. What do you call it when named Kevinis s**ts, Kevin? Any idea, Kevin? You’ll get five chances to win a $20,000 prize, Kevin.

Reilly: I guess, to follow your pattern, it’s Kevin is s**t.

Charles Davis: Ha, Kevin! Kevin is s**t, indeed, Kevin. And you forfeit your $20,000, Kevin.

Reilly: F**K YOU FOR TRICKING ME, CHARLES DAVIS, AND F**K YOU FOR MAKING ME CALL MYSELF S**T, CHARLES DAVIS! I F***ING HATE YOU, CHARLES DAVIS! YOU’RE A DICK, CHARLES DAVIS! We’ll be back after this!

WASHINGTON OFFENSE: The Redskins are a remarkable 1-17 against the spread on Monday Night Football as hosts in the previous 18 instances, and I’m willing to bet that most of their quarterbacks in that span have been lackluster, just like Case Keenum. The journeyman has enjoyed some bright spots through two games this season, but he has mostly struggled. The thing is, he hasn’t battled a great defense like the Bears yet. The Eagles and Cowboys boast strong stop units, but they’re both flawed in some way. The Bears, conversely, will be impenetrable for Keenum.

It would help Keenum if he had Trent Williams to serve as an elite blind-side protector. Instead, Donald Penn is going to struggle mightily versus Khalil Mack. Keenum will be under very heavy pressure as a result, so he’ll need to release the ball quickly. He’ll pick up some first downs by dinking and dunking to his inexperienced or pedestrian targets, but that won’t be a winning formula. A holding penalty will completely disrupt a drive, for instance.

The Redskins had some success running with Adrian Peterson to begin last week’s game, but they won’t have any such fortune Monday night. The Bears’ front will prohibit Peterson from finding any running lanes, which will make things difficult for Keenum.

CHICAGO OFFENSE: Mitchell Trubisky has shown no signs of growth in large part this season, but he at least deserves credit for leading his team to a victory on a final-minute drive at Denver. Granted, he was aided by one of the most bogus roughing-the-passer calls you’ll ever see, but he still managed to put Eddy Pineiro in position to attempt a game-winning field goal.

Trubisky is aggravating because he has shown that he can play very well at times. However, there are more instances in which he throws off his back foot, launching interceptions in the process. There’s no way of knowing when this will happen, as he has done this versus bad opponents in the past, including the Brock Osweiler-led Dolphins in 2018. Trubisky will have a chance to torch the Redskins, who have been susceptible to deep passes thus far this season, but it’s unclear if he’ll remain turnover-free.

Establishing the run would obviously help limit Trubisky’s mistakes. The Bears ran more with David Montgomery last week, which made me wonder why they didn’t do so in the opener. Montgomery will have a solid performance if Washington defensive lineman Jonathan Allen is out again.

RECAP: I can’t find an angle I like in this game. The Bears are a much better team than the Redskins, but I don’t trust Trubisky enough to lay more than a field goal with him on the road. We also have conflicting spread numbers from the computer model and DVOA (see below), which is not ideal.

When push comes to shove, I’d rather back Trubisky as a road favorite than this Redskin team in general. That’s how bad Washington is. And speaking of the Redskins’ incompetence, I’d be lying if that 1-17 ATS mark in Monday Night Football home games wasn’t in the back of my mind when I made this selection.

THURSDAY THOUGHTS: This is still one of the least-appealing games to bet on the slate. If you like the Bears, you can get -3.5 at Bookmaker.

SATURDAY NOTES: I have nothing new to add here. I’ll be shocked if I end up betting this game.

SUNDAY MORNING NOTES: This spread has moved to -4.5. I still have no opinion.

FINAL THOUGHTS: This spread moved to -5.5 earlier Monday, but a bit of sharp action on the Redskins brought it back down to -5 (perhaps because right tackle Bobby Massie is a surprise inactive.) The best number, if you like Chicago, is -4.5 at Bookmaker. Either way, I’m not betting this game. Mitchell Trubisky should play better this week, but I still don’t trust him as a road favorite of more than a field goal. That said, picking the miserable Redskins is even less appealing.


The Motivation. Edge: None.
No edge found.


The Spread. Edge: None.

WalterFootball.com Calculated Spread: Bears -4.
Las Vegas Hilton Advance Point Spread: Bears -4.
Computer Model: Bears -6.
DVOA Spread: Bears -1.




The Vegas. Edge: None.
Equal action.

Percentage of money on Chicago: 54% (59,000 bets)


The Trends. Edge: Bears.

Redskins are 10-20 ATS in September home games since 2001.

Redskins are 1-17 ATS in Monday Night Football home games since 1998.

Opening Line: Bears -4.

Opening Total: 42.

Weather: Partly cloudy, 77 degrees. Light wind.

Week 3 NFL Pick: Bears 20, Redskins 13
Bears -4.5 (0 Units) — Correct; $0
Under 41 (0 Units) — Incorrect; $0
Bears 31, Redskins 15

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week 3 NFL Picks – Early Games
Titans at Jaguars, Bengals at Bills, Dolphins at Cowboys, Broncos at Packers, Falcons at Colts, Ravens at Chiefs, Raiders at Vikings, Jets at Patriots, Lions at Eagles




Prop/Teaser/Parlay Picks
A list of some of my favorite team/player prop picks this week
(Offense & defensive ROY picks to be counted whenever winners are announced.) Picks carried over on a week-to-week basis will be in black.

Prop/teaser/parlay picks posted in Week 3 NFL Picks – Early Games



2024 NFL Mock Draft - April 16


NFL Power Rankings - Feb. 22


Fantasy Football Rankings - Feb. 19


NFL Picks - Feb. 12




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My Team-by-Team ATS Record
This section shows how well I do when picking each team this year. The purpose is to see how well I read each team. Pushes are not displayed. Winning/losing streak in parentheses.

Cowboys: 8-9	Bears: 11-4	Bucs: 6-11	49ers: 10-7
Eagles: 7-7	Lions: 9-8	Falcons: 8-9	Cardinals: 8-9
Giants: 7-9	Packers: 5-12	Panthers: 8-9	Rams: 8-9
Redskins: 14-3	Vikings: 6-9	Saints: 10-7	Seahawks: 7-9
Bills: 9-7	Bengals: 12-5	Colts: 7-10	Broncos: 9-6
Dolphins: 6-11	Browns: 11-5	Jaguars: 13-4	Chargers: 8-9
Jets: 8-9	Ravens: 11-6	Texans: 5-12	Chiefs: 5-10
Patriots: 7-9	Steelers: 11-6	Titans: 9-8	Raiders: 6-9
Divisional: 50-35 (2011-22: 558-526)	2x Game Edge: 36-24 (2011-22: 363-361)	2x Motivation Edge: 32-36 (2011-22: 478-405)	2x Spread Edge: 41-40 (2011-22: 197-168)
2x Vegas Edge: 41-38 (2011-22: 407-406)	2x Trend Edge: 15-13 (2011-22: 306-279)	Double Edge: 17-13 (2011-22: 190-172)	Triple Edge: 1-1 (2011-22: 32-36)