NFL Picks Against the Spread: Week 10, 2019

NFL Picks (Preseason 2019): 14-6 (+$1,535)
NFL Picks (Week 1, 2019): 5-10-1 (-$515)
NFL Picks (Week 2, 2019): 10-6 (+$140)
NFL Picks (Week 3, 2019): 10-6 (+$1,365)
NFL Picks (Week 4, 2019): 12-3 (+$1,240)
NFL Picks (Week 5, 2019): 8-7 (+$1,665)
NFL Picks (Week 6, 2019): 9-5 (+$2,505)
NFL Picks (Week 7, 2019): 8-6 (+$1,130)
NFL Picks (Week 8, 2019): 8-7 (+$435)
NFL Picks (Week 9, 2019): 3-9-1 (-$770)

NFL Picks (2019): 87-65-2 (+$8,730)
NFL Picks (2018): 140-134-12 (+$845)
NFL Picks (2017): 137-147-10 (-$4,300)
NFL Picks (2016): 148-127-10 (+$780)
NFL Picks (2015): 133-138-10 (-$3,215)
NFL Picks (2014): 143-133-7 (-$1,885)
NFL Picks (2013): 144-131-8 (+$7,825)
NFL Picks (2012): 130-145-8 (-$7,445)
NFL Picks (2011): 137-133-12 (-$1,335)
NFL Picks (2010): 144-131-8 (+$5,880)
NFL Picks (2009): 151-124-9 (+$4,235)
NFL Picks (2008): 136-125-6 (+$6,105)
NFL Picks (2007): 162-135-10 (+$3,585)
If you don’t quite understand the line, total or anything else, go to my Sports Betting FAQ.

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Vegas betting action updated Nov. 10, 11:30 a.m. ET. Follow @walterfootball for updates.


Go to Week 10 NFL Picks – Late Games







Los Angeles Chargers (4-5) at Oakland Raiders (4-4)
Line: Chargers by 1.5. Total: 48.5.
Thursday, Nov. 7, 8:20 PM


The Matchup. Edge: Raiders.

Week 9 Recap: Week 9 was brutal, as we went 3-9-1 (-$770), our first losing week since the beginning of the season. It was a frustrating one for sure, as the Buccaneers could’ve covered a billion times, yet ended up pushing because the game went to overtime. The Monday night game was almost as frustrating, as the officials decided a close game in the fourth quarter with two horrible pass interference calls/non-calls that made me have a mental breakdown on Twitter.

Let’s rebound in Week 10!

By the way, if you want to support this site, check out my new book!



You can buy A Safety and a Field Goal here.

In this book, I talk about the top NFL Draft busts, and what would’ve happened had each team gone a different route. Also, I discuss why Roger Goodell has banned us from the NFL Combine.

SAN ANGELES OFFENSE: I guess the Chargers should have fired their offensive coordinator earlier, huh? I don’t think it’s a coincidence that the Chargers were more explosive on this side of the ball the week after they axed Ken Whisenhunt. They suddenly utilized their running backs properly, as Melvin Gordon finally looked like the real version of himself following his very sluggish start.

Gordon and Austin Ekeler gashed the Packers last week. It’ll be more difficult to run on Oakland’s defense, but the Raiders’ linebackers can be beaten in coverage, so Gordon, Ekeler and Hunter Henry all figure to have strong performances in this contest.

Philip Rivers, meanwhile, will experience something for the first time this season: a lack of pressure. The Raiders don’t apply heat on the quarterback, which has to be music to Rivers’ ears because his offensive line is pretty poor, even with Russell Okung back on the blind side.

OAKLAND OFFENSE: The Raiders are 4-4 right now, which might be a surprise to some. Their great offensive line play has been a big reason for that. However, there’s a chance Oakland could be down two blockers in this game. Rodney Hudson missed last week’s contest, while right tackle Trent Brown, the team’s best offensive lineman, suffered an injury versus Detroit and could miss this contest.

I don’t need to tell you how much Brown’s absence will mean against the Joey Bosa and Melvin Ingram combo. One of them already had the edge over left tackle Kolton Miller, so Brown being injured would be a big matchup advantage for the Chargers. This will obviously make things very difficult for Derek Carr.

The Raiders will have to slow things down by moving the chains on the ground, which will be possible with Josh Jacobs. I’m not sure why the Packers refused to run on the Chargers, as San Angeles is missing its top defensive tackles. Jacobs could have a big Thursday night as a result.

RECAP: This spread and betting action are both massive overrreactions to the Chargers’ win over the sleepy Packers. Green Bay hardly tried last week, allowing San Angeles to prevail in blowout fashion. Because of that win, the Chargers are now favored, with the public betting on them heavily.

I’m going the other way. This spread is way off, as I believe the Raiders are better than the Chargers. My spread for this game is Oakland -4, so we’re getting tons of value with the Raiders, who also have the emotional edge, as this will be their final night game at their long-time stadium. Throw in the fact that we get to bet against the public, and this makes for a multi-unit wager.

The unit count will depend on the availability of Brown and Hudson, but either way, I’m going to be putting money on the host. People seem to have forgotten that the Chargers were dominated in yardage by the Bears, lost to the Titans, and were blown out by the Duck Hodges-led Steelers. I have not.

Our Week 10 NFL Picks will be posted all day Tuesday. Follow @walterfootball for updates.

THURSDAY THOUGHTS: There are a large number of injuries we’re waiting for. I’ll have an update in the evening when the inactives for this game are known.

FINAL THOUGHTS: The Raiders will have their entire offensive line intact, which is huge. The Chargers will be getting a defensive tackle back from injury, but they’re missing two starting offensive linemen. This will be a four-unit selection, as this spread is way off, and the Raiders should be able to feed off the emotion of their home crowd. The best line I see is Oakland +1 +100 at 5Dimes.




The Motivation. Edge: Raiders.
The Chargers are coming off a statement win over the Packers, while the Raiders will be playing their final night game at O.co.


The Spread. Edge: Raiders.

WalterFootball.com Calculated Spread: Raiders -4.
Las Vegas Hilton Advance Point Spread: Raiders -1.5.
Computer Model: Chargers -3.
DVOA Spread: Raiders -3.5.


The Vegas. Edge: Raiders.
Tons of action on the Chargers.

Percentage of money on San Angeles: 67% (17,000 bets)


The Trends. Edge: Chargers.

History: Chargers have won the last 4 meetings.

Raiders are 19-40 ATS after a win since 2009.

Opening Line: Raiders -2.5.

Opening Total: 47.5.

Weather: .

Week 10 NFL Pick: Raiders 27, Chargers 20
Raiders +1 +100 (4 Units) – 5Dimes — Correct; +$400
Under 48.5 (0 Units) — Incorrect; $0
Raiders 26, Chargers 24

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Kansas City Chiefs (5-3) at Tennessee Titans (4-4)
Line: Chiefs by 6. Total: 48.5.
Sunday, Nov. 10, 1:00 PM


The Matchup. Edge: Chiefs.

My overrated-underrated feature was posted in this spot the past couple of years. I thought it would be better if there was less clutter on this page, so I set up a new NFL Overrated and Underrated Teams page that will be updated every Monday. I have overrated and underrated teams listed there, and some may shock you!

KANSAS CITY OFFENSE: There’s no spread posted yet because Patrick Mahomes’ status is unknown. There’s belief that Mahomes will return this week, but that’s no guarantee. Still, given the reports, as well as Mahomes’ ability to jump up and down in celebration of last week’s victory, it’s safe to say that the best quarterback in the NFL is at least very close to returning.

The Titans stand no chance against Mahomes. They couldn’t even stop Kyle Allen and his receivers. Tennessee has a huge liability on one side of the field, as cornerback Leshaun Sims replaced an injured Malcolm Butler last week. Butler wasn’t even playing well, but Sims is far worse. Sims will be charged with covering one of Kansas City’s speedy receivers, which is just asking for trouble. Meanwhile, another injury to linebacker Jayon Brown will be especially painful. Brown is a terrific linebacker, so he was very much missed in the second half of last week’s contest. His absence will be more apparent as the Titans attempt to stop Travis Kelce from dominating the middle of the field.

The Titans are much better at defending the run than the pass, but as we saw last week, as well as their fourth-quarter near-meltdown against the Chargers, they have trouble versus dynamic pass-catching running backs. Damien Williams, who is getting more of a workload now over LeSean McCoy, qualifies as such.

TENNESSEE OFFENSE: No one has seemed to notice this, but the Chiefs have improved versus the pass lately. Kirk Cousins had a poor performance last week, as Stefon Diggs was invisible. There are several reasons for this, one of which is the improved play of cornerback Charvarius Ward. Acquired via a final-cuts swap for backup lineman Parker Ehinger prior to the 2018 campaign, Ward has shut down opposing receivers this season, and he should be able to put the clamps on one of Tennessee’s young wideouts.

Meanwhile, the pass rush has improved as well, thanks to the return of Chris Jones. One of the most dominant defensive linemen in the NFL, Jones was a force versus Minnesota last week. He’ll be especially potent against the Titans, who currently have injury issues on the offensive line. All of this will cause Ryan Tannehill to struggle mightily.

Jones’ presence has also made the Chiefs improved against the run. Kansas City had been getting gashed on the ground by everyone prior to the Minnesota game, but Jones’ return changed that. Derrick Henry could still have a decent game, but he won’t dominate like Marlon Mack and Carlos Hyde did in previous weeks.

RECAP: The Chiefs are getting better and healthier, and not everyone has seemed to notice yet. This could create value with them, even with Mahomes returning, though we won’t know that until a spread is posted.

Check back later in the week, or follow @walterfootball for updates.

THURSDAY THOUGHTS: Patrick Mahomes practiced fully, which has forced this spread to open at -6. Congratulations if you bet Kansas City at -3.5, as recommended in the picks video posted above! I’m going to be on Kansas City, and I’ll bet the Chiefs if the Titans’ injury report is as bleak as it looks right now.

SATURDAY NOTES: Patrick Mahomes is back and should have his entire offensive line healthy, save for left tackle Eric Fisher. Meanwhile, the Titans will be missing several important players, including Jurrell Casey, Corey Davis and Jayon Brown, the team’s top coverage linebacker. Brown’s absence will be most important, as the Titans don’t have a viable replacement for him. I’m willing to put a couple of units on the Chiefs, given the bad news for Tennessee on the injury report.

FINAL THOUGHTS: I was hoping that Dr. Laurent Duvernay-Tardif would return for the Chiefs this week, but sadly, that’s not the case. Still, I like Kansas City enough to bet a unit on them at -6. The line of -6 -105 is available at Bookmaker.


The Motivation. Edge: None.
No edge found.


The Spread. Edge: TBA.

WalterFootball.com Calculated Spread: Chiefs -6.
Las Vegas Hilton Advance Point Spread: No Line.
Computer Model: Chiefs -7.
DVOA Spread: Chiefs -4.


The Vegas. Edge: Titans.
No surprise here.

Percentage of money on Kansas City: 83% (822,000 bets)


The Trends. Edge: None.

Opening Line: Chiefs -6.

Opening Total: 47.5.

Weather: Sunny, 62 degrees. Mild wind, 11 mph.

Week 10 NFL Pick: Chiefs 27, Titans 17
Chiefs -6 -105 (1 Unit) — Incorrect; -$105
Under 48.5 (0 Units) — Incorrect; $0
Titans 35, Chiefs 32

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Buffalo Bills (6-2) at Cleveland Browns (2-6)
Line: Browns by 2.5. Total: 41.5.
Sunday, Nov. 10, 1:00 PM


The Matchup. Edge: None.

VEGAS UPDATE: I’ll be posting how the Vegas sportsbooks have done the previous week in this spot. The highest-bet sides were 38-44-3 last season, a year that was pretty painful for the books. Perhaps the pendulum will swing the other way…

Here were the teams getting the most bets this week:

49ers -8

Packers -3

Colts +1

Cowboys -7

Browns -3

Lions +2

The books absolutely destroyed the public in Week 9. Except the Cowboys (f**king officials), none of the lopsided-bet teams covered. None of them. Lopsided bets are now 20-22 ATS on the year.

Here are the teams getting the most bets this week:

Chiefs ??

Bills +2.5

Giants -2.5

Chargers -1

Dolphins +11

Rams -4

Seahawks +6

There are seven lopsided-bet games this week, and some of them are public dogs.

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CLEVELAND OFFENSE: The Bills defend the pass well, but they have a major liability on this side of the ball, and that would be their inability to stop the run. This has been exposed in recent weeks. The Eagles did so with Jordan Howard and Miles Sanders, and the Redskins even had Adrian Peterson eclipse the century plateau despite trailing throughout the afternoon. And yet, none of those backs are as dynamic as Nick Chubb.

Chubb is absolutely going to dominate in this game. He’s one of the most explosive runners in the NFL, as he even made the Patriots look pitiful, save for his two fumbles. Chubb could approach the 200-yard barrier in this contest, which demonstrates how good this matchup is.

The Bills will have to dedicate extra manpower to stopping Chubb, which should allow Baker Mayfield to take advantage of less attention. The Bills are not very good at defending slot receivers either, so I envision Jarvis Landry having a big performance as well.

BUFFALO OFFENSE: The Browns had some glaring defensive issues earlier in the year, but those have disappeared ever since three of their injured defensive backs returned. Getting back cornerbacks Denzel Ward and Greedy Williams has been especially crucial. As a result, Cleveland limited New England’s offense to 13 points (the other 14 came off turnovers). The Broncos hit some big plays last week, but the Browns, who were absolutely flat, restricted the Broncos to 227 net yards if the fluky Noah Fant touchdown is excluded.

Cleveland’s cornerbacks will limit John Brown, forcing Josh Allen to look at his other options, which aren’t very potent. Allen will pick up some first downs with his legs, but he’s been careless with the football often this year, and I imagine Myles Garrett and Olivier Vernon will do their best to force some fumbles.

Like the Bills, the Browns have been gashed against the run this year. Devin Singletary, who is finally – FINALLY – getting work over Frank Gore, figures to have another strong performance against Cleveland’s sketchy linebackers.

RECAP: This seems like a no-brainer to the public. Casual bettors pounded Cleveland last week, yet watched the Browns lose at Denver in what happened to be an obvious flat spot. If people bet on something that underperforms terribly, they’re likely to go against it next time. Plus, 6-2 is an underdog against 2-6. Buffalo seems like such an easy wager!

Except, the Bills aren’t very good. They had a fluke win over the Jets when C.J. Mosley got hurt to open the year. They barely scraped by the Eli Manning-led Giants. They barely beat the 0-8 Bengals and Marcus Mariota-led Titans. They were trailing the Dolphins in the third quarter at home. They were demolished by the Eagles, and they had trouble putting away the Dwayne Haskins-led Redskins. With a tougher schedule, the Bills might just be 2-6 themselves.

Conversely, look at whom the Browns played before Denver: Patriots, Seahawks, 49ers, Ravens and Rams. If you swapped the schedules of these teams, the Bills would be 2-6 or 3-5, and the Browns would be 5-3 or 6-2. In that case, Cleveland would be favored by seven or more!

Most bettors, however, don’t recognize that. They think the Bills are free money, and based on Buffalo’s horrid run defense, I disagree. Chubb will dominate this game, and the Browns should prevail.

This will be a wager of three units or more. This spread is low, and it’s always nice to fade a public dog.

THURSDAY THOUGHTS: There’s still a ton of action on the Bills, yet this line is rising because of sharp money on the Browns. I’m going to remain hopeful that we see a -2.5 -110.

SATURDAY NOTES: The Bills are still a massive public dog, as casuals don’t recognize that these teams are even (or Cleveland is a bit better.) The fallacy, “You are what your record says you are” has buried many square bettors over the years. I’m holding out hope for a decently priced -2.5.

FINAL THOUGHTS: I was hoping for a decently priced -2.5. The best I can find is -2.5 -120 at 5Dimes. I’m going to bet the Browns for three units at that number.


The Motivation. Edge: Browns.
The Bills are a huge public dog.


The Spread. Edge: None.

WalterFootball.com Calculated Spread: Browns -3.
Las Vegas Hilton Advance Point Spread: Browns -3.
Computer Model: Browns -2.
DVOA Spread: Browns -3.


The Vegas. Edge: Browns.
Everyone bet on the Browns last week and got burned.

Percentage of money on Buffalo: 73% (10,000 bets)


The Trends. Edge: None.

Opening Line: Browns -3.

Opening Total: 42.5.

Weather: Cloudy, 45 degrees. Mild wind, 11 mph.

Week 10 NFL Pick: Browns 27, Bills 17
Browns -2.5 -120 (3 Units) – 5Dimes — Correct; +$300
Over 41.5 (0 Units) — Incorrect; $0
Browns 19, Bills 16

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Arizona Cardinals (3-5-1) at Tampa Bay Buccaneers (2-6)
Line: Buccaneers by 4.5. Total: 51.5.
Sunday, Nov. 10, 1:00 PM


The Matchup. Edge: Cardinals.

HATE MAIL: I will be posting hate mail here. Here’s some hate mail (sort of) from last week:



There has been a lack of hate in the comments. If we get enough outcomes like the Seahawks-Buccaneers game, some of them might come back. We might even get Ross Avila or Jerry Jackson to make an appearance!

There is some hate in the NFL Power Rankings:



I don’t understand what’s so wrong with having a solid take on something. Do people really want overreactionary nonsense like you hear on ESPN? “OMG TEH VIKENGS ARE 6-2 SO THEY MUST BE TEH BEST TEAM EVER!!!” There you go.

Here’s another guy who wants ESPN analysis:



I don’t understand why people don’t realize that Kirk Cousins is going to have a meltdown and choke down the stretch. It’s like these people have hit their heads and can’t remember what has happened in the past.

And another one:



Again, it’s crazy to me that anyone had any faith in the Vikings and Cousins. This team is beginning its meltdown.

TAMPA BAY OFFENSE: I’m still tilted about what transpired in the Seahawks-Buccaneers game last week. I normally wouldn’t feel like writing about the Buccaneers at all, but I have some reasons for doing so this week. Eight reasons, in fact.

Jameis Winston played just about as well as you can expect him to last week, save for his lost fumble that turned into a field goal (Jason Myers could hit that one, huh!?) However, Winston was battling a truly pathetic defense with just one potent pass rusher and a miserable secondary. Winston was expected to have a tremendous performance, and he did. This matched what Winston did against the Rams earlier in the season. Perhaps he can request the NFL to play all of his games at NFC West squads.

This game, however, is at home, and some of his deflated teammates could cause Winston to be responsible for some turnovers. I don’t expect the Buccaneers to be able to block Chandler Jones or Terrell Suggs well, given how poor the offensive tackles are. This will create more havoc in the pocket, prompting Winston to go “Full Jameis” and throw some interceptions.

Making matters worse, Winston won’t be able to throw to Mike Evans with as much success this week. Evans dominated the Seahawks, but the Cardinals have Patrick Peterson back from injury. Peterson will shadow Evans, making this more of a Chris Godwin game. However, the Cardinals aren’t that bad at defending slot receivers, so Godwin won’t have an otherworldly performance, or anything.

ARIZONA OFFENSE: I’ve said this for most of the year: The Cardinals can win games if Kyler Murray is protected appropriately, but they can’t prevail if their offensive line struggles. Thus, I expected the 49ers to dominate Arizona last week. That did not happen, perhaps because the Cardinals made some changes to their blocking unit.

The Cardinals played Mason Cole for the first time last week, starting him at guard. They moved Justin Pugh out of that spot, putting him at right tackle. This strategy worked, as Murray wasn’t pressured very much. Perhaps this was a one-game fluke, but I’m willing to trust it, especially against a Tampa defense that doesn’t put great pressure on the quarterback outside of Shaq Barrett. The Buccaneers’ defensive line stops the run extremely well, but Barrett is the only consistent pass rusher.

Murray, as a result, will have all the time he needs to scan the field and throw to his receivers, who will be covered by dreadful cornerbacks. Thanks to injuries, the Buccaneers were forced into playing Jamel Dean last week, who looked like the fattest, slowest cornerback I’ve ever seen in my 20 years of covering the NFL. Dean somehow ran a 4.30 at the combine, but he looked like a 4.80 corner against the Seahawks. His presence allowed the Seahawks to make a comeback and win (still tilted!)

RECAP: I mentioned that there were eight reasons to write about this game. That’s because this is an eight-unit wager, my overdue October NFL Pick of the Month.

The Cardinals satisfy all four handicapping elements I utilize. Let’s break them down:

Matchup: I already discussed how much better the Cardinals are when Murray gets appropriate protection. Arizona’s changes to the offensive line could have a profound impact going forward. Furthermore, the Buccaneers are down two of their top cornerbacks. Carlton Davis has a hip injury, while M.J. Stewart is stricken with lethargy. This has forced the Buccaneers into using fat cornerback Jamel Dean, who was the worst player I’ve ever seen at the position.

Motivation: How can the Buccaneers possibly get up for this game? They’re coming off a grueling overtime defeat. The loss knocked them down to 2-6, effectively ending any playoff hopes they had. They now have to fly back across the country from the West Coast and play an early game. And if the jet lag and deflation weren’t enough, they have to prepare for battling the Saints next week. Meanwhile, the Cardinals have enjoyed extra time to prepare for this game. They’re younger and more enthusiastic, so they have more to play for.

Spread: This line is way too high. My calculated spread is Tampa Bay -3, so we’re getting two key numbers (3, 4). The computer model I use is even more bearish on the Buccaneers, making this line Tampa Bay -1. We’re getting immense value with the visitor.

Vegas: The sharps have been pounding the Cardinals. This spread opened +6, yet it dropped to +4.5 because of all the professional money on Arizona. I obviously wish I had gotten the +6 at the opener, but +4.5 is still a great number.

And there you have it. This is my belated October NFL Pick of the Month, as I’m making an eight-unit wager on the Cardinals. Good luck to those of you who follow me with this selection!

THURSDAY THOUGHTS: Barring a major injury during the week, there’s nothing that’ll take me off the Cardinals. In fact, I’m going to lock this in now. We’re risking losing out on +6, but I’m seeing the sharp books (Pinnacle, CRIS) move the juice to -105 on the Buccaneers, which is an indication this spread could drop (perhaps because Carlton Davis missed Thursday’s practice.) I could be completely wrong about this, and I may regret locking this in early, but I’m going to do it. BetUS has +4.5 -105 available for their featured Reduced Juice Game, so that’s where I’ll be betting.

SATURDAY NOTES: Cartlon Davis is out, so that means we’ll get to see more of 270-pound cornerback Jamel Dean. I’ll be shocked if the Cardinals don’t win this outright.

FINAL THOUGHTS: I don’t understand why this spread has risen to -5.5. It fell to +4 on Saturday, but it seems as though some sharps liked Tampa at -4, -4.5 and -5. The Cardinals still have edges in every area, except for Vegas, so I still love them.


The Motivation. Edge: Buccaneers.
The Buccaneers are coming off a draining overtime game on the West Coast that effectively ended their season and now have to play early on the East Coast at 1 p.m. Tampa also has to play the Saints after this.


The Spread. Edge: Cardinals.

WalterFootball.com Calculated Spread: Buccaneers -3.
Las Vegas Hilton Advance Point Spread: Buccaneers -5.5.
Computer Model: Buccaneers -2.
DVOA Spread: Buccaneers -4.


The Vegas. Edge: Cardinals.
A good lean toward the underdog, but this is sharp money.

Percentage of money on Arizona: 65% (22,000 bets)


The Trends. Edge: Cardinals.

Road Team is 93-59 ATS in Buccaneers games since 2009.

Buccaneers are 24-52 ATS at home in the previous 76 instances.

Opening Line: Buccaneers -6.

Opening Total: 54.

Weather: Sunny, 77 degrees. Light wind.

Week 10 NFL Pick: Cardinals 24, Buccaneers 17
Cardinals +4.5 -105 (8 Units – October NFL Pick of the Month) – BetUS — Correct; +$800
Cardinals +185 (0.5 Units) – any sportsbook — Incorrect; -$50
Under 51.5 (0 Units) — Incorrect; $0
Buccaneers 30, Cardinals 27

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New York Giants (2-6) at New York Jets (1-7)
Line: Giants by 3. Total: 44.
Sunday, Nov. 10, 1:00 PM


The Matchup. Edge: None.

I wouldn’t say my weekly random NFL notes cluttered these picks pages, so I’ll keep them here. What I’m also going to do is store all of them in a Random NFL Notes section so that you can go back and read previous entries in the future.

Some random NFL notes I can’t put anywhere else:

1. Last week, I wrote about how I thought the NFL should fine the Cardinals $500,000 for the stunt they pulled with David Johnson. That hasn’t happened yet, but something similar has transpired with another team.

The NFL fined the Steelers $100,000 for circumventing the injury report regarding Ben Roethlisberger’s status in Week 2. I tweeted in response: “That’s not enough.”

It’s really not. A hundred grand is not enough of a dent for an NFL team to care. The Steelers and other organizations will continue to lie per the injury report in an attempt to gain an advantage. An advantage, by the way, that resulted in a home loss to the Seahawks. Nice going, Tomlin.

The Steelers’ plan to lie about Roethlisberger’s injury cost lots of people money, including me, as I played him in plenty of DraftKings lineups. Tens of thousands of other people did as well.

How about this? The NFL should offer to refund anyone their DraftKings entries if people can prove they played Roethlisberger in Week 2. The NFL then can make the Steelers pay for it. DraftKings is an official sponsor of the NFL, so it would be in the league’s best interest to make sure people don’t lose money because of teams circumventing the injury report.

2. Speaking of DraftKings, it would be my dream if it would remove defenses from lineup construction. Defense is fine for showdown slates – as are kickers – but I don’t see why we have to pick defenses for the regular slates.

Defenses are way too fluky. In a game that is already super random in regard to which players score touchdowns and which way the ball bounces on fumbles, we don’t need more randomness. And that’s all defenses are. It’s all about which defense scores a touchdown, which is highly unpredictable.

In fact, it’s so random that when I construct my DraftKings lineups, I have Fantasy Cruncher randomly select a defense with a 20-percent exposure cap. I want to make sure I have as much exposure to as many defenses as possible without being dedicated to one defense, since it’s solely about which unit gets a defensive touchdown.

I don’t see the harm in getting rid of the defensive spot in favor of a second flex. I think it’ll make everything more fun and reduce the variance that is so very frustrating.

3. I’ve mentioned my dad here the past few entries. Three weeks ago, my dad gave his thoughts on who happens to be the most-hated player in football right now:

Dad: Ezekiel Elliott is the most hated guy in football right now!

Me: Why?

Dad: Because he’s disgusting!

The following week, my dad offered a hot take on Andy Reid during the Chiefs-Broncos game.

Dad: I hate Andy Reid. Everyone hates Andy Reid!

Me: Why?

Dad: Because he looks like a pig.

My dad has now offered his opinions on football-related commercials, namely this one, where Baker Mayfield retrieves lemonade for his girlfriend:



As soon as she asked, “Straw?” my dad got very tilted:

“Oh, you want a straw? How about you put my dick in your mouth!?”

NEW YORK JETS OFFENSE: I think Adam Gase may have ruined Sam Darnold. The young quarterback looked very promising at the end of last year, but Gase’s inability to scheme easy throws for Darnold has caused his quarterback to see ghosts on the field. Darnold’s pocket awareness is horrible, and he just looks scared at times. He’s just miserable to watch.

Of course, it doesn’t help that Darnold’s pass protection is terrible. The Jets were down three offensive linemen against the Dolphins. It was so bad that they had to use someone named Chuma Edoga at left tackle, and he was awful as a result. The Giants don’t have a good pass rush, but they should be able to take advantage of the Jets’ ineptitude. Leonard Williams, in particular, will be very interested in doing so.

Williams’ presence has helped the Giants a bit in regard to getting after the quarterback. He should also make the Giants better against the run. Le’Veon Bell may not even play in this game, which will severely downgrade the offense.

NEW YORK GIANTS OFFENSE: The Jets are so banged up that they had trouble fielding an active roster last week. They had to dress injured players who couldn’t take the field. One of the positions that happens to be decimated by injuries is the linebacking corps, as New York is down C.J. Mosley and Avery Williamson. The Jets are poor against pass-catching backs and tight ends without the two talented players, so this makes Saquon Barkley and Evan Engram’s matchups very favorable.

Daniel Jones should be able to locate Barkley and Engram for decent gains. Jones saw plenty of pressure Monday night and fumbled twice, but the Jets don’t have a very good pass rush. The edge rush had already been lacking, and Leonard Williams’ departure hurt the interior pass rush.

Meanwhile, the Jets’ cornerbacks are also dreadful. This bodes well for all of Jones’ receivers, including Sterling Shepard, who could be back from his concussion this week.

RECAP: I don’t see a good reason to bet this game. The Giants are not good enough to be three-point “road” favorites, especially on short rest. More than 80 percent of the betting action is backing them, which is not ideal.

Conversely, the Jets are ravaged by injuries, as they’re missing players at almost every position. Perhaps that will change, so I might have an update when I see an injury report later in the week.

I’m going to side with the Jets for now, but that’s purely a contrarian approach.

THURSDAY THOUGHTS: I thought about switching this pick to the Jets, but it now sounds as though Evan Engram and Sterling Shepard will miss this game. Betting this contest is even less appealing now. I’ll stick with the Jets.

SATURDAY NOTES: This spread has risen to +3. The Jets at that number looked appealing for a second, but then I remembered how many injuries they have. The Jets are so banged up that they can’t field an active roster. That said, things are getting a bit better because left tackle Kelvin Beachum may return this week. Meanwhile, the Giants will be missing two top play-makers (Evan Engram, Sterling Shepard), as well as two starting offensive linemen (Mike Remmers, Jon Halapio). If some of the countless questionable Jets end up being active, I may put a unit or two on them at +3 on Sunday morning.

FINAL THOUGHTS: Kelvin Beachum is back for the Jets, which is exactly what I wanted to see. Suddenly, the Jets aren’t nearly as banged up as their opponent for a change. I’m willing to bet a unit on the Jets at +3 -115, which is available at Bovada. The two most likely results of this game are the Giants winning by three and the Jets winning by three, and we go push and win with those outcomes at +3.


The Motivation. Edge: None.
No edge found.


The Spread. Edge: Jets.

WalterFootball.com Calculated Spread: Giants -2.5.
Las Vegas Hilton Advance Point Spread: Jets -1.5.
Computer Model: Giants -1.
DVOA Spread: Giants -1.


The Vegas. Edge: None.
Action has evened out.

Percentage of money on New York Giants: 58% (15,000 bets)


The Trends. Edge: None.

Opening Line: Giants -2.5.

Opening Total: 43.

Weather: Partly cloudy, 53 degrees. Light wind.

Week 10 NFL Pick: Jets 20, Giants 17
Jets +3 -115 (1 Unit) — Correct; +$100
Under 44 (0 Units) — Incorrect; $0
Jets 34, Giants 27

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Atlanta Falcons (1-7) at New Orleans Saints (7-1)
Line: Saints by 14. Total: 51.5.
Sunday, Nov. 10, 1:00 PM


The Matchup. Edge: Saints.

As with the random NFL notes, I’m going to have all of my Random College Football Notes on one page as well. Oh, and you can find my College Football Picks here.

Random College Football Notes:

1. Congratulations to the NCAA for finally entering the 21st century! If you somehow missed it, the NCAA has adopted a rule in which players can now earn money based on their likeness. This is a great decision that should’ve been implemented decades ago. I don’t understand what has taken so long, as I’ve been writing about it for years. But better late than never, I guess.

The thing is, it’s still too late. While there will be a rule change, it won’t become official until 2023.

I don’t understand why it would take so long. It’s ridiculous that the athletes entering school this fall won’t ever be able to make money off their likeness at all. If I were these athletes, I’d try to file a class-action lawsuit against the NCAA so I can make money as well.

Why wait until 2023? How about next week? It seems so stupid that a rule this simple would take more than four days; let alone four years to implement.

2. Speaking of the players entering college soon, I wanted to point out that our College Football Recruiting Rankings are updated.

Check them out to see where the top prospects will be playing soon, and if your favorite school will obtain any of them. If you went to a mid-major or 1-AA school, my condolences.

Also, I wanted to point out that we’ll have live grades on National Signing Day, so I’m excited for that!

3. Earlier in the year, I wanted to point out one of ESPN’s analysts, but simply forgot. This analyst is Mark Sanchez. When I saw him on TV, I immediately thought, “This guy is a bum! Why is he a football analyst of any sort?” And then I remembered that this is college football, where the NFL’s losers thrived for three or four years.

ESPN welcomed Sanchez by showing some of his great highlights of a win over Penn State in one of those meaningless bowl games no one ever remembers the results of. Sanchez had a bright smile on his face after these highlights aired, as he was re-living his glory days. That changed when the host added, “And then, Mark was drafted by the Jets,” and Sanchez immediately looked upset, which had me rolling over in laughter.

NEW ORLEANS OFFENSE: This was expected to be Drew Brees’ first game back from his thumb injury, but he returned early and beat Arizona prior to the bye. Brees looked rusty in the first half of that victory, but picked things up following halftime. Thus, we don’t need to wonder how he’ll fare following such a long layoff.

Brees shouldn’t have any sort of difficulty torching the pathetic Falcons. Atlanta’s defense is truly abysmal and does nothing well. This includes its inability to put pressure on the quarterback. Brees is already well protected anyway, so he’ll have all the time in the world to locate Michael Thomas against an atrocious secondary.

Brees may not even need to do all that much if Alvin Kamara explodes for a huge performance. This will be Kamara’s first game back from injury, so he’ll be eager to pick up big gains against a defense that can’t defend the run.

ATLANTA OFFENSE: Brees isn’t the only quarterback in this game to miss action recently. Matt Ryan was out for the team’s Week 8 loss to Seattle. Ryan is expected back in what happens to be a very difficult matchup for him.

Ryan has struggled in first halves of games this year – i.e. before garbage time – because his injury-ravaged offensive line can’t protect him. The Saints put plenty of pressure on opposing quarterbacks, so it’ll be difficult for Ryan to do anything besides throw short passes to Devonta Freeman and Austin Hooper.

I didn’t mention Julio Jones, by the way, because of Marshon Lattimore. The terrific cornerback has shut down opposing receivers like Mike Evans and Amari Cooper this year, so he should be able to limit Jones.

RECAP: This is an ugly, lopsided matchup that the Saints should win easily. Not only are they the better team in every facet, they’re also coming off a bye, so Sean Payton has enjoyed extra time to prepare for this game. Payton is an excellent coach, so it’s not a surprise that he’s 8-4 against the spread off a bye.

However, this spread is high, and it’s just screaming “back-door cover.” Ryan, despite the horrible blocking in front of him, is fully capable of crashing through the back door, as he’s been king of garbage yardage in the second half of games. Thus, I have no interest in betting this game.

THURSDAY THOUGHTS: No updates at the moment. The Saints will dominate this game, but the Falcons will be in play for a back-door cover. It’s worth noting that this spread is beginning to rise a bit in some books – now -14 at Bookmaker – which makes me wonder if some insiders know Matt Ryan will miss this game.

SATURDAY NOTES: Matt Ryan will officially play, yet this spread continues to rise. I’m almost considering a unit on Atlanta +14, but I don’t think I can get there.

FINAL THOUGHTS: There’s still nothing that has enticed me to put a wager on the Falcons. Desmond Trufant is out, which doesn’t help matters.


The Motivation. Edge: None.
No edge found.


The Spread. Edge: Falcons.

WalterFootball.com Calculated Spread: Saints -15.5.
Las Vegas Hilton Advance Point Spread: Saints -13.
Computer Model: Saints -16.
DVOA Spread: Saints -12.


The Vegas. Edge: None.
Equal action.

Percentage of money on New Orleans: 59% (15,000 bets)


The Trends. Edge: None.

History: Saints have won 16 of the last 24 meetings.

Falcons are 5-3 ATS as underdogs of 7.5+ since 2009.

Matt Ryan is 11-7 ATS as an underdog of 6+ since his second season.

Saints are 46-37 ATS as a home favorite since 2007.

Saints are 10-13 ATS as double-digit favorites under Sean Payton.

Sean Payton is 8-4 ATS off a bye.

Opening Line: Saints -13.

Opening Total: 50.

Weather: Dome.

Week 10 NFL Pick: Saints 34, Falcons 24
Falcons +14 (0 Units) — Correct; $0
Over 51.5 (0 Units) — Incorrect; $0
Falcons 26, Saints 9

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Baltimore Ravens (6-2) at Cincinnati Bengals (0-8)
Line: Ravens by 10.5. Total: 44.
Sunday, Nov. 10, 1:00 PM


The Matchup. Edge: TBA.

If you’ve followed this site for a while, you might remember that I like to respond to my spam mails. It all started seven years ago, when a man named Jon Wire from the “United Bank of Africoan” promised me an ATM card of some sort, so I responded as a man named Mister Compassion Chuck Norris, who was raised by wolves. The following season, I received e-mails from Richard Held and Loon Bruce, who told me I won a Facebook Award, which comes with a “lump sum pay out of (750,000.00 GBP).” Pretending to be Matthew Millen Kim, I sent out my application and fake money.

I’ve been messing around with spammers ever since, pretending to be Harvey Weinstein, Tom Brady, Ramsay Bolton and Walter White. I have brand new Spam Mails this year, so check them out if you want to see me screw with spammers. I’ll have new ones every week!

BALTIMORE OFFENSE: Lamar Jackson was unstoppable against the Patriots, so how are the pitiful Bengals going to contain him? I suppose we already know the answer to that because Jackson demolished Cincinnati the last time he played them. Jackson was 21-of-33 for 236 yards with 152 rushing yards against Cincinnati a few weeks ago.

Here’s the kicker: That was without Marquise Brown! The dynamic rookie receiver was shut down last week, but that was expected because Bill Belichick is a defensive mastermind with an elite cornerback at his disposal. The Bengals, conversely, don’t have the manpower to continue Brown. They’ve been torched by opposing receivers all year, and this week won’t be any different.

Jackson, meanwhile, will continue to pick up chunks of yardage on the ground, all while throwing effective passes to his tight ends. The Bengals have the worst healthy linebacking corps in the NFL, so they don’t stand a chance of defending Mark Andrews.

CINCINNATI OFFENSE: The Bengals will be starting rookie quarterback Ryan Finley for the first time. Giving a rookie his first start against Baltimore’s defense doesn’t seem like the smartest thing to do, but that’s before remembering that this Ravens stop unit isn’t nearly what it used to be. Thanks to the departures of Terrell Suggs, Za’Darius Smith and C.J. Mosley during the previous offseason, the Ravens haven’t been as potent defensively this year.

Finley is an accurate, smart quarterback who reminds me of Alex Smith. Without an overwhelming amount of pressure in his face, he should be able to find his receivers for decent gains. This could include A.J. Green, who is expected to return this week. Green hasn’t played yet this year, but he’s one of the most talented receivers in the NFL. His presence will make a huge difference.

While the Ravens don’t generate as much pressure on the quarterback or cover very well, they do, at least, stop the run extremely effectively. They should be able to put the clamps on Joe Mixon, who was limited to a laughable 10 yards on eight carries in the first meeting.

RECAP: This is a major motivational edge for the Bengals. They’ll be seeking revenge after Baltimore throttled them in Week 6. Meanwhile, the Ravens are coming off a “Super Bowl” victory against the Patriots. They threw everything they had at New England and came away with a victory. Why would Baltimore put much effort into battling a team it already crushed after such a big win, especially with a tough game against Houston coming up next week?

The Bengals should be able to cover with an expected C- or worse effort from the Ravens. I’m going to bet at least a couple of units on them, and the wager size could increase if Cordy Glenn finally makes his return from concussion protocol.

THURSDAY THOUGHTS: A.J. Green won’t play in this game after all. That’s a shame for Ryan Finley, who needs all the help he can get against a defense thar blitzes very frequently. I’m still going to be on the Bengals, but I’ll be less enthusiastic about it.

SATURDAY NOTES: A.J. Green and Dre Kirkpatrick are out, but Cordy Glenn may finally suit up! Glenn is questionable, but practiced fully Friday. If Glenn is active, I may increase this unit count to three.

FINAL THOUGHTS: Ugh, Cordy Glenn is out yet again. It’s ridiculous that he can’t get healthy after all this time. I’m downgrading Cincinnati to one unit.


The Motivation. Edge: Bengals.
The Ravens are coming off an emotional win on national TV and now have to play a team they embarrassed already. Baltimore will have to prepare for Houston following this week.


The Spread. Edge: None.

WalterFootball.com Calculated Spread: Ravens -7.5.
Las Vegas Hilton Advance Point Spread: Ravens -10.
Computer Model: Ravens -14.
DVOA Spread: Ravens -8.5.


The Vegas. Edge: Bengals.
Slight lean on the visitor.

Percentage of money on Baltimore: 63% (17,000 bets)


The Trends. Edge: Bengals.

History: Bengals have won 8 of the last 12 meetings.

Ravens are 16-26 ATS as road favorites since 2005.

Ravens are 8-18 ATS as favorites of 7.5 or more since 2010.

Opening Line: Ravens -10.

Opening Total: 46.

Weather: Sunny, 54 degrees. Light wind.

Week 10 NFL Pick: Ravens 30, Bengals 23
Bengals +10.5 (1 Unit) – any sportsbook — Incorrect; -$110
Over 44 (0 Units) — Correct; $0
Ravens 49, Bengals 13

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Detroit Lions (3-4-1) at Chicago Bears (3-5)
Line: Bears by 3. Total: 38.
Sunday, Nov. 10, 1:00 PM


The Matchup. Edge: None.

Video of the Week: This is a short one, but it’s well worth the whole minute (thanks, Joe G.):



I was definitely not expecting that fail at the end! God, I used to hate those damn milk cartons.

CHICAGO OFFENSE: The Bears had a rather pathetic performance last week against the Eagles, at least in the opening half. They produced just nine net yards in slightly more than two quarters. NINE net yards! The Eagles welcomed back some defensive players who were previously out with injuries, but still. It was a horrifying performance from Mitchell Trubisky, who drifted back in the pocket and tossed horrible passes off his back foot throughout the afternoon.

However, something changed in the third quarter, and Chicago had a chance to take the lead at one point. The Bears established David Montgomery, which was very difficult to do against the Eagles’ stout run defense. The Lions are much worse versus the rush, as Josh Jacobs just put together a terrific performance. I imagine the Lions will have the same sort of issues against another rookie runner, as Montgomery is finally a featured player of this offense after Matt Nagy foolishly used the pedestrian Mike Davis over him earlier in the season.

Passing will be a problem, of course, given that Trubisky is horrible. However, Allen Robinson figures to perform well. Save for last week, Robinson has been terrific this year when factoring in his poor quarterbacking. He has a nice matchup against the Lions, who have safety injuries. Darius Slay will shadow Robinson, but it doesn’t appear as though Slay is completely healthy.

DETROIT OFFENSE: The Lions are definitely better than the Bears, but don’t seem to match up well against them. That statement includes this side of the ball, as Chicago’s defensive weakness in the wake of Akiem Hicks’ injury is stopping the run. The Lions have one of the worst ground attacks in the NFL, so they won’t be able to exploit this liability.

Meanwhile, the Bears are much better against the pass. They still have Khalil Mack to rattle quarterbacks, while their corners and safeties cover extremely well. The strength of Detroit’s offense is Matthew Stafford throwing to his two talented receivers, but the Bears should be able to defend them well.

That may not be the case with Danny Amendola or T.J. Hockenson, however. The Bears are weaker defending the middle of the field, while Buster Skrine continues to be a huge downgrade from Bryce Callahan, the Bears’ slot cornerback from last year.

RECAP: This game mirrors the Browns-Bills contest. The betting public is very confused about why the Bears, like the Browns, are favored. They think that the Lions, like the Bills, are very easy money. As usual, the public is wrong.

The Lions do not match up well against the Bears. Also, what have the Lions done to deserve this much public favor? They lost to the Raiders last week, let the Giants hang around in the previous contest and got steamrolled by the Vikings the week before that. The Bears, meanwhile, legitimately outgained the Chargers two weeks ago at home, 393-231, and I’d say the Chargers are comparable to the Lions, given their close game at Detroit in Week 2.

The advance spread on this game was above a field goal. Meanwhile, the computer model says Chicago -5 is the correct number, so we’re getting value with the host under that projection. With that in mind, as well as the fact that we get to fade a public dog, I like the Bears quite a bit.

THURSDAY THOUGHTS: This is identical to the Bills-Browns game, where the public dog is getting tons of action, and yet the sharps are on the favorite (though not as much) because they know the line is too low.

SATURDAY NOTES: Have you seen Detroit’s injury report? The Lions could be down several defensive tackles against the surging David Montgomery, as well as their top safety. Meanwhile, Matthew Stafford is also dealing with injuries. There’s some chatter that Stafford could sit out, so I’m going to lock this in now. Stafford could certainly start, but if he does, he probably won’t be himself. Many sportsbooks have taken this off the board, but FanDuel and DraftKings have it available. I just placed five units on Chicago -3 -114 at 5Dimes, which I’ll round to -115 for easier tracking.

FINAL THOUGHTS: Matthew Stafford is out, so congratulations to those who bet the Bears at -2.5 or -3! I can’t say I like the Bears very much at -6 (Bookmaker). That would warrant a wager of about a single unit.


The Motivation. Edge: Bears.
The Lions, who are massive public dogs, play the Cowboys next week.


The Spread. Edge: Bears.

WalterFootball.com Calculated Spread: Bears -3.
Las Vegas Hilton Advance Point Spread: Bears -3.5.
Computer Model: Bears -5.
DVOA Spread: Bears -2.


The Vegas. Edge: Bears.
The Lions are a public dog.

Percentage of money on Detroit: 61% (14,000 bets)


The Trends. Edge: Lions.

History: Lions have won 9 of the last 12 meetings.

Opening Line: Bears -3.

Opening Total: 44.

Weather: Cloudy, 41 degrees. Light wind.

Week 10 NFL Pick: Bears 20, Lions 13
Bears -3 -115 (5 Units) – DraftKings — Correct; +$500
Under 38.5 (0 Units) — Correct; $0
Bears 20, Lions 13

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Week 10 NFL Picks – Late Games
Dolphins at Colts, Rams at Steelers, Panthers at Packers, Vikings at Cowboys, Seahawks at 49ers




Prop/Teaser/Parlay Picks
A list of some of my favorite team/player prop picks this week
(Offense & defensive ROY picks to be counted whenever winners are announced.) Picks carried over on a week-to-week basis will be in black.

Prop/teaser/parlay picks posted in Week 10 NFL Picks – Late Games



2024 NFL Mock Draft - April 16


NFL Power Rankings - Feb. 22


Fantasy Football Rankings - Feb. 19


NFL Picks - Feb. 12




SUB MENU






My Team-by-Team ATS Record
This section shows how well I do when picking each team this year. The purpose is to see how well I read each team. Pushes are not displayed. Winning/losing streak in parentheses.

Cowboys: 8-9	Bears: 11-4	Bucs: 6-11	49ers: 10-7
Eagles: 7-7	Lions: 9-8	Falcons: 8-9	Cardinals: 8-9
Giants: 7-9	Packers: 5-12	Panthers: 8-9	Rams: 8-9
Redskins: 14-3	Vikings: 6-9	Saints: 10-7	Seahawks: 7-9
Bills: 9-7	Bengals: 12-5	Colts: 7-10	Broncos: 9-6
Dolphins: 6-11	Browns: 11-5	Jaguars: 13-4	Chargers: 8-9
Jets: 8-9	Ravens: 11-6	Texans: 5-12	Chiefs: 5-10
Patriots: 7-9	Steelers: 11-6	Titans: 9-8	Raiders: 6-9
Divisional: 50-35 (2011-22: 558-526)	2x Game Edge: 36-24 (2011-22: 363-361)	2x Motivation Edge: 32-36 (2011-22: 478-405)	2x Spread Edge: 41-40 (2011-22: 197-168)
2x Vegas Edge: 41-38 (2011-22: 407-406)	2x Trend Edge: 15-13 (2011-22: 306-279)	Double Edge: 17-13 (2011-22: 190-172)	Triple Edge: 1-1 (2011-22: 32-36)