NFL Picks Against the Spread: Week 14, 2019

NFL Picks (Preseason 2019): 14-6 (+$1,535)
NFL Picks (Week 1, 2019): 5-10-1 (-$515)
NFL Picks (Week 2, 2019): 10-6 (+$140)
NFL Picks (Week 3, 2019): 10-6 (+$1,365)
NFL Picks (Week 4, 2019): 12-3 (+$1,240)
NFL Picks (Week 5, 2019): 8-7 (+$1,665)
NFL Picks (Week 6, 2019): 9-5 (+$2,505)
NFL Picks (Week 7, 2019): 8-6 (+$1,130)
NFL Picks (Week 8, 2019): 8-7 (+$435)
NFL Picks (Week 9, 2019): 3-9-1 (-$770)
NFL Picks (Week 10, 2019): 8-5 (+$1,460)
NFL Picks (Week 11, 2019): 8-5-1 (-$1,790)
NFL Picks (Week 12, 2019): 9-5 (+$1,015)
NFL Picks (Week 13, 2019): 9-7 (+$205)

NFL Picks (2019): 121-87-3 (+$9,620)
NFL Picks (2018): 140-134-12 (+$845)
NFL Picks (2017): 137-147-10 (-$4,300)
NFL Picks (2016): 148-127-10 (+$780)
NFL Picks (2015): 133-138-10 (-$3,215)
NFL Picks (2014): 143-133-7 (-$1,885)
NFL Picks (2013): 144-131-8 (+$7,825)
NFL Picks (2012): 130-145-8 (-$7,445)
NFL Picks (2011): 137-133-12 (-$1,335)
NFL Picks (2010): 144-131-8 (+$5,880)
NFL Picks (2009): 151-124-9 (+$4,235)
NFL Picks (2008): 136-125-6 (+$6,105)
NFL Picks (2007): 162-135-10 (+$3,585)
If you don’t quite understand the line, total or anything else, go to my Sports Betting FAQ.

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Vegas betting action updated Dec. 8, 11:30 a.m. ET. Follow @walterfootball for updates.


Go to Week 14 NFL Picks – Late Games







Dallas Cowboys (6-6) at Chicago Bears (6-6)
Line: Cowboys by 3. Total: 42.5.
Thursday, Dec. 5, 8:20 PM


The Matchup. Edge: Cowboys.

Week 13 Recap: We had a winning week again in Week 13 (9-7, +$205), but I handicapped it very poorly. It was an awful week because I missed so many things. Basically, I bet too many units on the Colts and Vikings, and I should’ve wagered heavily on the Buccaneers and Redskins, knowing the two opponents of the latter pair of teams would probably quit. I discussed it, yet did nothing about it despite preparing for this scenario during the previous summer. It was dumb, and I’m very disappointed in myself, as this poor week may have cost me a win in the Supercontest Gold.

I’m glad I caught this before a horrible meltdown, so I’m looking forward to a great Week 14!

By the way, if you want to support this site, check out my new book!



You can buy A Safety and a Field Goal here.

In this book, I talk about the top NFL Draft busts, and what would’ve happened had each team gone a different route. Also, I discuss why Roger Goodell has banned us from the NFL Combine.

CHICAGO OFFENSE: Mitchell Trubisky struggled in the opening half against the Lions on Thanksgiving, but had a strong second half, headlined by a winning touchdown drive. He kept his season alive, but didn’t face much of a challenge against a Detroit defense that isn’t particularly good at anything.

The Cowboys don’t have a strong stop unit by any means, but they can get after the quarterback with DeMarcus Lawrence, Michael Bennett and Robert Quinn. They have the matchup edge in the trenches, as the one major difference between this year’s Chicago offense and the 2018 version of it is the regression of the offensive line. Both tackles have struggled all season, so this is something Dallas can take advantage of.

That said, it could be difficult for the Cowboys to contain some of Chicago’s weapons. We just saw Cole Beasley abuse the Cowboys, so Anthony Miller, who has been hot lately, should be able to win his matchup. Tarik Cohen, meanwhile, has a favorable matchup against a struggling linebacking corps.

DALLAS OFFENSE: The Cowboys have some offensive line issues of their own, as left guard Connor Williams is out, but this shouldn’t be a big deal. Williams was the weak link of the front, so the Cowboys should be able to run effectively against the Bears. Chicago has been trampled by opposing backs ever since losing Akiem Hicks, so Ezekiel Elliott projects very well in this matchup.

Elliott’s rushing ability should open opportunities for Dak Prescott. The Bears have a strong pass defense, but one area they happen to be weak is the slot, as Buster Skrine has proven to be a huge downgrade from Bryce Callahan. Randall Cobb, who has been hot lately, figures to have another big game.

Amari Cooper and Michael Gallup have tougher matchups on the outside, but Prescott could have some time to find them downfield. Tyron Smith is one of the few tackles capable of matching up with Khalil Mack, while La’el Collins should be able to handle Leonard Floyd.

RECAP: There’s a ton of money on the Cowboys, yet this spread is trending from +3 to +2.5, thanks to sharp action on the Bears. Frankly, I don’t get what either side sees in this game. Dallas doesn’t look appealing because of the public action, plus everything says that this line should be something like Dallas -1 (my projected spread), or Chicago -1 (computer model), or Dallas -2.5 (last week’s DVOA numbers). Meanwhile, the Bears are a trash team with a horrible offensive line and a dreadful quarterback.

I’d say the two most likely results of this game are the Cowboys winning by three and Bears winning by three, so I like Chicago at +3. If this spread falls to +2.5 everywhere, I’d think about taking Dallas. Either way, I’m almost certainly not going to bet this contest, pending the injury report.

Our Week 14 NFL Picks will be posted all day Tuesday. Follow @walterfootball for updates.

THURSDAY THOUGHTS: Facebook friend Chris W. pointed out that the sharps might have been on the Bears earlier in the week because there was a chance Dallas would be down two offensive linemen in this game. The Dallas linemen are all off the injury report, however, save for Connor Williams, who was the weak link anyway. Meanwhile, the Bears are banged up, as Danny Trevathan and Prince Amukamara will miss this contest. I’m switching my pick to Dallas, but I probably won’t bet this game.

FINAL THOUGHTS: The Bears are missing several key starters, namely Prince Amukamara, Danny Trevathan and Bobby Massie. The sharps were on the Bears earlier in the week, but that’s no longer the case because of those injuries. They’re no longer taking a side, while the public is pounding Dallas. The public wins sometimes, and this could be one of those instances. I really don’t see an incentive to bet this game, however.




The Motivation. Edge: None.
No edge found.


The Spread. Edge: Bears.

WalterFootball.com Calculated Spread: Cowboys -1.
Las Vegas Hilton Advance Point Spread: Cowboys -3.5.
Computer Model: Bears -1.
DVOA Spread: Pick.


The Vegas. Edge: Bears.
Tons of money on the Cowboys, and yet the spread is dropping.

Percentage of money on Dallas: 77% (20,000 bets)


The Trends. Edge: Bears.

The underdog is 90-62 ATS in Cowboys games since 2010.

Opening Line: Cowboys -3.

Opening Total: 42.5.

Weather: .

Week 14 NFL Pick: Cowboys 21, Bears 17
Cowboys -3 (0 Units) — Incorrect; $0
Under 42.5 (0 Units) — Incorrect; $0
Bears 31, Cowboys 24

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Baltimore Ravens (10-2) at Buffalo Bills (9-3)
Line: Ravens by 6.5. Total: 44.5.
Sunday, Dec. 8, 1:00 PM


The Matchup. Edge: None.

My overrated-underrated feature was posted in this spot the past couple of years. I thought it would be better if there was less clutter on this page, so I set up a new NFL Overrated and Underrated Teams page that will be updated every Monday. I have overrated and underrated teams listed there, and some may shock you!

BALTIMORE OFFENSE: The 49ers didn’t exactly stop Lamar Jackson, as the electrifying quarterback still had 100-plus rushing yards, but their excellent secondary was able to force Jackson into a punt for the first time since Week 9. They limited Jackson’s offense to just 20 points overall, which was an impressive feat.

The Bills are built similarly to the 49ers, so I think we can expect a similar performance from them in this contest. Their excellent cornerbacks will stymie Baltimore’s receivers, while Jerry Hughes and Ed Oliver will put pressure on Jackson. Of course, Jackson will take off and pick up chunks of yardage, but Buffalo’s defense has a pair of athletic linebackers in Tremaine Edmunds and Matt Milano. They won’t completely stop Jackson from scrambling effectively, but I wonder if they’ll be able to limit Jackson to 50-75 rushing yards instead of 100. If so, the Bills will have a good chance to win this game.

That said, the Ravens might be able to counter by pounding the ball up the middle, something the Cowboys couldn’t do last week because of a large deficit. The Ravens have been weaker to the run than the pass, so Mark Ingram could have a nice performance.

BUFFALO OFFENSE: Josh Allen was terrific on Thanksgiving. Following his gutsy conversion on fourth down, Allen torched the Cowboys, making the appropriate reads and delivering perfect throws. This was the potential everyone saw in the very raw product who came out of Wyoming. He’s finally taken a big leap.

Even with that in mind, this will be a far more difficult matchup for Allen, as Baltimore has an elite secondary. Marcus Peters has been a great addition, as he’s formed an impenetrable trio with Jimmy Smith and Marlon Humphrey. I like John Brown and Cole Beasley, but they’re not exactly elite talents who will be able to beat great coverage. Meanwhile, because of these tremendous cornerbacks, the Ravens are able to blitz at a very high rate. Allen beat the Dallas rush last week, but this is another matter.

The 49ers, however, were able to move the chains on the ground this past Sunday, as Raheem Mostert had a huge performance. The Ravens almost seemed afraid to tackle Mostert, so perhaps the dynamic Devin Singletary can have a similar output. He and Allen should be able to pick up chunks of yardage on the ground.

RECAP: Last week’s Ravens-49ers spread was too high, so another mistake I made was not betting the 49ers. The sportsbooks, tired of losing money on Jackson, inflated the spread a couple of points. This created some great value with San Francisco that I refused to wager on because I was tired of losing money on Jackson as well.

I’m not going to make the same mistake again, as this spread is also inflated. It’s possible that I made too much of an adjustment for Thanksgiving, but my calculated line is just Baltimore -1.5. Perhaps a better projection comes from last week’s DVOA numbers, which has this listed at Baltimore -3.

This line is simply too high at -6, especially considering two things: First, there’s a ton of action on the Ravens. More than 80 percent of the money is on the visitor, yet this line is +5.5 at Pinnacle, the sharpest sportsbook on the Web. Second, I’m not sure how motivated the Ravens will be for playing this game, as they’re coming off a tough, physical victory over the 49ers. They have to also play in four days, so I don’t think they’ll be 100-percent focused. The Bills, meanwhile, have enjoyed extra time to prepare for Jackson.

I’m waiting on this week’s DVOA numbers to confirm that this spread should still be around Buffalo +3, but unless anything changes, I’ll be making amends for last week’s blunder and betting the Bills for three or four units.

THURSDAY THOUGHTS: This spread is +6 in most books, but Pinnacle, the sharpest sportsbook, has this listed at +5.5. Pinnacle wants Baltimore money, so take caution if you like the Ravens.

SATURDAY NOTES: Pinnacle now has +6, so I guess they got the Baltimore money they wanted. In fact, the juice is rising on the Ravens. I’m probably going to be on the Bills for three units, but I could talk myself into a fourth if the spread hits +7. The best number at the moment is +6.5 -115 at Bovada.

FINAL THOUGHTS: This spread popped up to -6.5 early Sunday, but the sharps made quick work of that, betting Buffalo down to +6 in most books. Luckily, 5Dimes is still listing +6.5 at -110 juice, which I’ll bet for three units.


The Motivation. Edge: Bills.
The Ravens are coming off a grueling, last-second victory over the 49ers, and they have to play in four days, so I don’t know if they’ll be focused for this game.


The Spread. Edge: Bills.

WalterFootball.com Calculated Spread: Ravens -1.5.
Las Vegas Hilton Advance Point Spread: Ravens -6.5.
Computer Model: Ravens -8.
DVOA Spread: Ravens -3.


The Vegas. Edge: Bills.
Everyone is on the Ravens’ bandwagon.

Percentage of money on Baltimore: 72% (8,000 bets)


The Trends. Edge: None.

Ravens are 18-26 ATS as road favorites since 2005.

Bills are 21-34 ATS in their last 55 home games vs. a team with a winning record.

Opening Line: Ravens -6.5.

Opening Total: 43.

Weather: Cloudy, 41 degrees. HEAVY WINDS, 20 mph.

Week 14 NFL Pick: Ravens 24, Bills 21
Bills +6.5 (3 Units) – 5Dimes — Incorrect; -$330
Over 44.5 (0 Units) — Incorrect; $0
Ravens 24, Bills 17

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Washington Redskins (3-9) at Green Bay Packers (9-3)
Line: Packers by 13. Total: 42.
Sunday, Dec. 8, 1:00 PM


The Matchup. Edge: None.

VEGAS UPDATE: I’ll be posting how the Vegas sportsbooks have done the previous week in this spot. The highest-bet sides were 38-44-3 last season, a year that was pretty painful for the books. Perhaps the pendulum will swing the other way…

Here were the teams getting the most bets this week:

Packers -6.5

Buccaneers +1

Jets -3

Bears -1.5

Chargers -2.5

Saints -6.5

Eagles -9

Patriots -3

Seahawks -3

It was an even 4-4 for the books in Week 13 leading up to the Monday night game, meaning the house won prior to Monday because they collect money from the juice, as well as dumb teaser and parlay bets. Sportsbooks, however, lost big on the Seahawks. Lopsided bets are now 31-32 ATS on the year.

Here are the teams getting the most bets this week:

49ers +3

Seahawks -1

Cowboys -3

Ravens -6

Titans -3

Steelers -2

How about the 49ers over the Saints being the most-lopsided bet team of the week!?

GREEN BAY OFFENSE: Aaron Rodgers didn’t convert a single third down in a brutal, Sunday night loss to the 49ers. He barely even eclipsed 100 passing yards. Battling the Giants, however, was the other extreme, as the Giants’ secondary has been an abomination this year. Even in the snow, Rodgers was able to thrive, converting numerous third- and fourth-and-long situations.

Rodgers should have similar success in this contest. The Redskins have major issues in their secondary as well. Aside from Quinton Dunbar, who should be able to slow down Davante Adams a bit, Washington has some anemic cornerbacks who can be exposed. Young receiver Allen Lazard seems to be coming on, so he could have a nice performance. Rodgers should have time to find him and Adams, as well as his other weapons, especially if Ryan Kerrigan misses another game.

The Redskins have a pass-funnel defense, as they’re much better at defending the run. They even slowed down Christian McCaffrey last week, so don’t count on Aaron Jones doing much. Luckily for the Packers, they won’t need him to.

WASHINGTON OFFENSE: The Redskins trailed 14-0 last week, yet stuck with their game plan and continued to pound the ball with their two talented running backs. The result was an impressive upset victory over the Panthers, who absolutely needed a victory to stay alive for a wild-card spot.

The Packers aren’t great at stopping the run, though they’re much better at it than Carolina is. Still, Derrius Guice, if given the opportunity, could have some big gains. Guice has shown off his talent since returning from injury, and it’s clear that he gives the Redskins a very potent threat out of the backfield.

Washington, however, is weighed down by Dwayne Haskins. Even with his excellent rushing attack working, Haskins was very pedestrian last week. I imagine that he’ll have trouble with the Packer pass rush, as the beleaguered left side of the Redskin offensive line will have to deal with Za’Darius Smith and Kenny Clark.

RECAP: I’m not seeing a huge incentive to bet this game. I think this line is right where it should be – I made it Green Bay -13 – though it’s worth noting that the advance spread was -14.5, so we’re getting some value in that regard. Fourteen is a minor key number, so not needing the Packers to win by two touchdowns is important.

I’m going to take the Packers, but I could see the Redskins sneaking inside the number, especially if Green Bay is a bit flat for this game with two divisional opponents (Bears, Vikings) on the horizon. I don’t think Green Bay will necessarily look ahead to playing Chicago, but it also may not take Washington very seriously.

THURSDAY THOUGHTS: I still see no real incentive to bet this game. The Packers could blow the Redskins out of the water if they wanted to, but I’m not sure they’ll be very focused for this game, considering that they have to battle two divisional opponents next.

SATURDAY NOTES: Again, I’m not betting this game. The Packers, if fully focused, should be able to destroy the Redskins. I’m not sure that’ll be the case, however, especially with the Bears – Green Bay’s next opponent – looking great Thursday night.

FINAL THOUGHTS: The public has jumped on the Packers late, which is not a surprise. I still see no reason to touch this game.


The Motivation. Edge: Redskins.
The Packers have the Bears and Vikings next.


The Spread. Edge: None.

WalterFootball.com Calculated Spread: Packers -13.
Las Vegas Hilton Advance Point Spread: Packers -14.5.
Computer Model: Packers -11.
DVOA Spread: Packers -12.


The Vegas. Edge: Redskins.
Late action on the Packers.

Percentage of money on Green Bay: 65% (12,000 bets)


The Trends. Edge: Packers.

Redskins are 13-30 ATS after a road win since 2000.

Aaron Rodgers is 95-65 ATS since 2009.

Packers are 32-19 ATS in December home games since 2000.

Opening Line: Packers -14.5.

Opening Total: 42.

Weather: Cloudy, 38 degrees. Mild wind, 13 mph.

Week 14 NFL Pick: Packers 31, Redskins 17
Packers -13 (0 Units) — Incorrect; $0
Over 42 (0 Units) — Incorrect; $0
Packers 20, Redskins 17

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Denver Broncos (4-8) at Houston Texans (8-4)
Line: Texans by 8. Total: 43.
Sunday, Dec. 8, 1:00 PM


The Matchup. Edge: Texans.

HATE MAIL: I will be posting hate mail here. Here’s some hate mail from last week:



What? You don’t think the Cardinals and Rams were even? What game were you watching!?

Here’s someone who can’t let the horrible Detroit -4 bet go:



Let me take yet another victory lap. Jeff Driskel should have never been a publicly backed four-point road favorite, and taking the Redskins was both contrarian and brilliant!

This is an insult I thought I’d never hear:



A sentient neutron star? What the hell does that mean? I think this person is trying too hard to be smart. Just call me a moron. That’s perfectly fine. But sentient neutron star? How about you shove a sentient neutron star up your pretentious a**hole, bro!

Meanwhile, the deranged psychopath from last week posted in the NFL Game Recaps page:



This person is insane. He continues to think that every anonymous poster on the comment boards is me, and he’s worried that I’ll ban him, when it’s impossible to ban anonymous people. How can I ban an anonymous person when I don’t know who they are? That’s the whole point of anonymity!

DENVER OFFENSE: Drew Lock had an impressive debut. He made some nice throws to Courtland Sutton and was able to scramble around a bit. He also drew a pass interference flag on Casey Hayward, albeit on an uncatchable ball that Hayward looked back for, but whatever. Lock also made some mistakes. He stared down his receiver and threw an interception. He also did something young quarterbacks are wont to do, as he drifted back too far in the pocket and threw off his back foot sometimes. Still, he was miles better than Brandon Allen, who couldn’t complete basic passes past five yards.

Lock has a nice matchup on paper against the Texans, who don’t pressure the quarterback well and struggle to cover. At least, that’s what the stats say. Romeo Crennel made some nice adjustments during the mini-bye week. He had Bradley Roby back from injury, too, which really helped. Roby was excellent in his return, as was young safety Justin Reid. Meanwhile, unknown edge rusher Jacob Martin was so dominant that the Patriots had to begin double-teaming him. If Ja’Wuan James doesn’t return from injury, it’ll be very difficult for the Broncos to block both Martin and Whitney Mercilus.

I wouldn’t count on the Broncos running effectively either. The Texans have a tremendous rush defense, even without J.J. Watt, so Phillip Lindsay will have to do his damage as a receiver out of the backfield. Not being able to run the ball will hurt Lock, as he’ll be battling once of the best defensive coordinators in the NFL in just his second pro start.

HOUSTON OFFENSE: Deshaun Watson did the smart thing and avoided New England’s cornerbacks last week, opting to throw instead at the Patriots’ linebackers. He finally used Duke Johnson correctly, and the spry running back rewarded him with a terrific performance.

Watson won’t exactly be able to target the Denver linebackers, as Alexander Johnson has emerged as one of the top players at his position. Luckily for Watson, he can go back to the cornerbacks. Chris Harris Jr. is one of the league’s best, and he’ll do a great job of smothering DeAndre Hopkins, but the other corners in Denver’s secondary are very burnable. Will Fuller and Kenny Stills should do well as a consequence, unless Watson has no time to throw, which is also a possibility if Von Miller doesn’t return from injury.

Denver’s run defense, meanwhile, is usually pretty potent. That unit will take a hit, however, because of Derek Wolfe’s injury. That said, the Texans don’t exactly have the rushing attack to take advantage of that, as Carlos Hyde continues to run in slow motion. Perhaps Johnson will have some nice rushes, but he’s not someone who can handle a large workload.

RECAP: If I had more faith in Lock, I’d probably bet several units on the Broncos. This spread is a touch too high, as my projections say Houston should be -7. The computer model is even more bearish on the Texans’ chances of covering this spread, listing -6 as the correct line. Last week’s DVOA numbers are right in between (-6.5).

Also, motivation could be an issue for the Texans, who are coming off a nationally televised victory over the Patriots. Houston will battle the Titans next week, so it could be looking ahead to that game.

Lock is a problem, however. He’s obviously better than Allen, but his inexperience is problematic, given that he’ll be going up against one of the best defensive coordinators in our generation. Crennel typically eats rookie quarterbacks for breakfast, so Lock will make more mistakes than he did last week. Also, those projected spreads I posted above may not account for the improvements the Texans have made in their secondary, so keep that in mind.

It’s close, but I’m going to trust the numbers and pick Denver. If, however, Von Miller and Ja’Wuan James are ruled out again, I may consider switching to the Texans.

THURSDAY THOUGHTS: Von Miller was limited in Wednesday’s practice, while Ja’Wuan James practiced fully. I imagine I’ll stick with the Broncos, but betting this game will be difficult, considering Drew Lock’s matchup against Romeo Crennel.

SATURDAY NOTES: Things could get ugly for the Broncos in this game. Guard Ronald Leary is out, while Ja’Wuan James is questionable, so the Broncos could be down two offensive linemen. Meanwhile, Von Miller may not play, and the same goes for Malik Reed. If both guys are out, Denver will be down three top edge rushers as well as Derek Wolfe. Depending on the inactive list, I may end up betting the Texans, despite their expected low motivation.

FINAL THOUGHTS: I wanted to bet the Texans if Von Miller and Ja’Wuan James were out, but both will play. However, the Broncos are still missing important personnel – Ronald Leary, Malik Reed – so I’m going to stick with Houston, but for zero units. The sharps bet Denver down to +8.


The Motivation. Edge: Broncos.
It’s difficult to see the Texans getting up for this game after beating the Patriots, especially with Tennessee on the horizon next week.


The Spread. Edge: Broncos.

WalterFootball.com Calculated Spread: Texans -7.
Las Vegas Hilton Advance Point Spread: Texans -7.5.
Computer Model: Texans -6.
DVOA Spread: Texans -7.


The Vegas. Edge: None.
Equal action.

Percentage of money on Denver: 52% (10,000 bets)


The Trends. Edge: None.

Opening Line: Texans -8.

Opening Total: 41.

Weather: Dome.

Week 14 NFL Pick: Texans 23, Broncos 13
Texans -8 (0 Units) — Incorrect; $0
Under 43 (0 Units) — Incorrect; $0
Broncos 38, Vikings 24

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San Francisco 49ers (10-2) at New Orleans Saints (10-2)
Line: Saints by 1.5. Total: 45.
Sunday, Dec. 8, 1:00 PM


The Matchup. Edge: Saints.

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NEW ORLEANS OFFENSE: The consensus from what I’ve seen is that people don’t expect Drew Brees to have much success against the 49ers. People seem to think Brees isn’t playing as well this year, and they’re pointing to injuries to Terron Armstead and Andrus Peat as reasons why Brees will be even worse this week.

I can understand the sentiment behind the two offensive linemen being injured, but I don’t understand why Peat is lumped in with Armstead. Peat is a garbage player, and his replacement, Nick Easton, has been better. Armstead, on the other hand, is a Pro Bowl left tackle, so Nick Bosa has a tremendous matchup. However, Brees releases the ball very quickly, and he hates interior pressure more than anything anyway.

Brees also happens to be the most precise quarterback in NFL history – at least, statistically – so I think he’ll play well. Some are pointing to his Thanksgiving stats, but Brees endured five drops in a sleepy matchup. Brees’ supporting cast will be better in this marquee battle. It’ll be tough for the receivers to get open against the stellar secondary, but with Kwon Alexander out of the lineup, there will be opportunities in the middle of the field for Jared Cook and Alvin Kamara. And speaking of Kamara, the 49ers are weaker against the run than the pass, so he and Latavius Murray should have some success on the ground.

SAN FRANCISCO OFFENSE: The Saints don’t have an otherworldly defense like the 49ers do, but they boast an impressive stop unit themselves. They ranked eighth in DVOA ahead of Week 13, a stat dragged down by the pass defense, which hasn’t been as great ever since Marshon Lattimore got hurt. Lattimore wasn’t quite himself on Thanksgiving, but with extra time to rest, he should perform better in this contest.

Meanwhile, the Saints’ run defense is terrific. Few teams are as good against the rush than New Orleans is, which is key for this matchup because the 49ers will want to establish their countless backs. Raheem Mostert bulldozed the Ravens last week, but the Saints will be able to keep him, Tevin Coleman and Matt Breida in check.

Jimmy Garoppolo will have to throw more often than he did last week as a result. Again, the Saints’ secondary will be better this week with Lattimore returning to full strength. Also, the Saints have some potent pass rushers to bother Garoppolo. I could see them forcing him into some turnovers.

RECAP: I absolutely love two sides this week. In fact, I love them so much that I considered both as my December NFL Pick of the Month. However, I like one slightly more than the other, so what I’m going to do is wager six units instead of five on the lesser of the two selections.

The Saints nearly made the cut as my December NFL Pick of the Month. They satisfy all four pillars of my handicapping. Let’s review:

Matchup: This favors the Saints, as they have one of the best head coaches in the NFL with extra time to prepare. Giving Sean Payton extra time to solve the 49ers’ defense is a huge advantage.

Motivation: The 49ers are massive public underdogs. Most people believe the 49ers will win, and almost every expert will be picking San Francisco. This will motivate the Saints, who had a similar situation last year when another NFC West team, the Rams, came into New Orleans during the regular season and were publicly backed, and ended up losing in blowout fashion.

Spread: Everything says the Saints should be at least -3. The computer model even thinks -4 is correct. Yet, we’re getting -2.5 at some sportsbooks, which seems like a great bargain. One of the most likely results of this game is New Orleans winning by three, and that would end up being correct at -2.5.

Vegas: Everyone and their evil stepmother is betting the 49ers. About 80 percent of the action is on San Francisco, which is just ridiculous.

I love the Saints for all of these reasons. Let’s take advantage of Payton off a mini-bye with great value, all while fading dumb, public groupthink with a six-unit wager on New Orleans.

THURSDAY THOUGHTS: The juice is beginning to increase on the Saints. I could see this line rising to -3, so I may lock this in Thursday evening or Friday, once I see more injury report updates.

SATURDAY NOTES: Terron Armstead has a chance to play, which would be a nice boon for the Saints. I love New Orleans either way, but would obviously prefer for Armstead to take the field.

FINAL THOUGHTS: This line keeps falling, as the sharps are on the 49ers. This is shocking to me, especially with Terron Armstead being active! The best lines I found are -1.5 -105 at Bovada, and then -2 -105 at 5Dimes.


The Motivation. Edge: Saints.
The 49ers are massive public dogs.


The Spread. Edge: Saints.

WalterFootball.com Calculated Spread: Saints -3.
Las Vegas Hilton Advance Point Spread: Saints -3.
Computer Model: Saints -4.
DVOA Spread: Saints -2.5.


The Vegas. Edge: Saints.
The 49ers are a massive public dog.

Percentage of money on San Francisco: 65% (25,000 bets)


The Trends. Edge: Saints.

Saints are 46-39 ATS as a home favorite since 2007.

Drew Brees is 52-32 ATS off back-to-back wins.

Opening Line: Saints -3.

Opening Total: 45.5.

Weather: Dome.

Week 14 NFL Pick: Saints 27, 49ers 20
Saints -1.5 -105 (6 Units) – Bovada — Incorrect; -$630
Over 44.5 (0 Units) — Correct; $0
49ers 48, Saints 46

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Cincinnati Bengals (1-11) at Cleveland Browns (5-7)
Line: Browns by 7. Total: 42.5.
Sunday, Dec. 8, 1:00 PM


The Matchup. Edge: None.

I wouldn’t say my weekly random NFL notes cluttered these picks pages, so I’ll keep them here. What I’m also going to do is store all of them in a Random NFL Notes section so that you can go back and read previous entries in the future.

Some random NFL notes I can’t put anywhere else:

1. I’m curious to hear what everyone thinks about this, but I’m beginning to believe that year-long fantasy football is in decline. The interest has diminished just a bit, perhaps because of the emergence of daily fantasy.

Personally, I’ve been more focused on daily fantasy. There’s just more upside with lots of money at stake, and it’s more exciting. I’ve found myself not even knowing if I’ve won some of my year-long matchups until I do waivers on Tuesday. I was also guilty of not subbing out Julio Jones in one of my year-long lineups. Luckily, I had already clinched playoff berth in that league, but the fact remains that it didn’t even dawn on me that I had to bench Jones when it was announced that he wouldn’t play. I was more concerned about whether or not he was in my DFS lineups.

What do you guys think? Have you seen a decline in year-long fantasy interest? Are you suffering from it as well?

2. Speaking of year-long fantasy, I had a discussion about it during Thanksgiving. One member of my family engaged in fantasy conversation with me during the middle game.

You might be thinking that this was a fun topic to discuss, but you’d be wrong. I’ve heard this before, so it’s not just me, but there’s nothing more boring than hearing about someone’s fantasy team. In fact, I believe there are two types of people in the world:

a. Those who don’t realize that discussing their fantasy team is boring.

b. Those who don’t talk about their fantasy team because they realize that it’s boring.

The dude in question is a nice guy, so this isn’t attack on him. Rather, this is a PSA for anyone who constantly talks about their fantasy team. Trust me when I say this: No one cares!

3. I usually discuss crazy things my dad says in this spot. He called Ezekiel Elliott the most-hated player in the NFL because he’s “disgusting” and then said everyone hates Andy Reid because he’s a “pig.” He then took issue with Baker Mayfield’s girlfriend in that one commercial where she asks for a straw for her lemonade. “How about you put my dick in your mouth?” he yelled, pretending to be Mayfield. He recently called FOX sideline reporter Kristina Pink a “whore.” I’m still not sure why, but it apparently was because she had sperm on her lips. I don’t know.

I was at my parents’ house for Thanksgiving, so I was watching the final game with my dad and one of his best friends. My dad’s friend is a nice dude, but admittedly knows very little about football. “I’m good with sports I used to play like hockey, tennis and soccer,” he said.

I’d go on a rant about soccer, and how utterly boring it is, but now is not the time. Instead, I want to point out that my dad’s friend said something amusing at one point. He went to the bathroom during th first half and missed an Atlanta touchdown. He came back into the room and saw the score. He then remarked:

“Oh wow, I missed the Atlanta home run!”

I don’t know if he said that intentionally to troll everyone, or if he legitimately confused home run with touchdown, but I thought it was hilarious.

CLEVELAND OFFENSE: Baker Mayfield banged his hand on Bud Dupree’s helmet prior to halftime of last week’s battle against the Steelers. Mayfield wasn’t the same after that. He completed just eight passes following intermission, and he also lost a fumble near midfield. It sounds like Mayfield will play, but it’s unclear if he’ll be 100 percent.

Regardless, Mayfield figures to struggle against Cincinnati’s pass rush. The Bengals brought lots of heat against the Jets, sacking Sam Darnold four times and forcing the offensive line into seven penalties. The Bengals don’t do much very well defensively, but they can put plenty of pressure on quarterbacks, thanks to Carlos Dunlap, Geno Atkins and Carl Lawson. All have positive matchups in this contest.

The Browns have some edges themselves on this side of the ball. For instance, the Bengals have the worst linebacking corps in the NFL, so Kareem Hunt could have a huge game, especially as a receiver out of the backfield. The Bengals could also struggle to cover Cleveland’s talented receivers, though it’s unclear if Mayfield will have the time or the healthy hand to consistently connect with them.

CINCINNATI OFFENSE: Andy Dalton’s return to the lineup was a major reason why I made the Bengals a four-unit play last week. Dalton struggled to begin the year, but that was because his offensive line was anemic. Every week, I said, “If Cordy Glenn returns, things will be different.” Well, Glenn is back, so it’s not a surprise that Cincinnati is finally performing well on this side of the ball.

Dalton should continue to play well. He won’t have to worry about the suspended Myles Garrett at all, as Garrett’s absence has fundamentally changed Cleveland’s defense. Suddenly, the cornerbacks aren’t as good, especially in the wake of Greedy Williams’ concussion. Dalton hasn’t enjoyed much time in the pocket this year, but he’ll have enough of it to find his receivers for decent gains once again.

Meanwhile, Joe Mixon should thrive. The Browns are just mediocre against the run per the stats, but we saw Benny Snell have some successful, tough rushes last week. Mixon is way more talented than Snell, so he should be able to pick up where the young Pittsburgh runner left off.

RECAP: If Garrett were playing, and Mayfield weren’t hurt, and the Browns had motivation to win this game, I could see myself potentially siding with the Browns. However, none of this is true. Garrett is out, and Greedy Williams could potentially miss this contest as well. Mayfield, meanwhile, may not be 100 percent because of his hand injury.

Also, the motivation is very key. The Browns, who once had Super Bowl aspirations, were effectively eliminated from the playoffs last week. Sure, they’re two out of the second wild-card spot, but they’re behind several teams, and catching all of them with only four games to go is very unlikely. Something I discussed at the very top of this page is that I should’ve faded the Jaguars and Panthers last week because they were effectively eliminated from the playoffs and thus would be very flat. That’s the case with the Browns now, so I don’t see why they’d put forth full effort into this game.

I’m not going to make the same mistake again. I’m fading the Browns and betting the improved, Dalton-quarterbacked Bengals for a few units.

THURSDAY THOUGHTS: The sharps have jumped on the Bengals, dragging this line down to +7.5. I still like Cincinnati for three units at this new line, as I don’t think the Browns will try hard in this game.

SATURDAY NOTES: Olivier Vernon might be out for the Browns, as he missed practice Friday. If he’s not on the field, the Browns will be down their top two edge rushers, which is a huge deal. The sharps have been betting the Bengals, and it’s easy to see why. I’m likely to wager four units on Cincinnati.

FINAL THOUGHTS: Olivier Vernon is out, as is right tackle Chris Hubbard. That’s even more good news for the Bengals. The sharps bet Cincinnati earlier in the week, and they have continued to bet the Bengals. I love Cincinnati today. You can still get +7 -110 at FanDuel, but the juice has risen elsewhere.


The Motivation. Edge: Bengals.
The Browns have effectively been eliminated for the playoffs, so I don’t think they’ll get up for this game.


The Spread. Edge: None.

WalterFootball.com Calculated Spread: Browns -7.
Las Vegas Hilton Advance Point Spread: Browns -10.5.
Computer Model: Browns -10.
DVOA Spread: Browns -11.


The Vegas. Edge: None.
Equal action.

Percentage of money on Cincinnati: 53% (13,000 bets)


The Trends. Edge: None.

History: Bengals have won 21 of the last 29 meetings.

Opening Line: Browns 10.5.

Opening Total: 43.

Weather: Cloudy, 47 degrees. HEAVY WINDS, 17 mph.

Week 14 NFL Pick: Bengals 26, Browns 23
Bengals +7 (4 Units) – FanDuel — Incorrect; -$440
Bengals +270 (0.5 Units) – Bookmaker — Incorrect; -$50
Over 42.5 (0 Units) — Correct; $0
Browns 27, Bengals 19

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Carolina Panthers (5-7) at Atlanta Falcons (3-9)
Line: Falcons by 3.5. Total: 47.5.
Sunday, Dec. 8, 1:00 PM


The Matchup. Edge: None.

As with the random NFL notes, I’m going to have all of my Random College Football Notes on one page as well. Oh, and you can find my College Football Picks here.

Random College Football Notes:

1. I’d like to write about the action that took place in the Ohio State-Michigan game – the Wolverines killed themselves with so many mistakes in the red zone when the game was close in the first half – but I couldn’t concentrate after what I saw during the halftime show:



Why were there so many people at the table? Were they having a belated Thanksgiving dinner? I don’t understand why FOX Sports believed it needed six people to analyze the first half of this game. Five would even be too many, but six!?

The first thing I thought of when I saw this was, well, I’m sure all of you will remember this:



2. Speaking of these analysts, does anyone else find it odd that there are so many NFL failures on the set? Matt Leinart and Brady Quinn had abysmal NFL careers, while Reggie Bush was a disappointment for where he was drafted. Maybe it’s because I’m way more of an NFL guy than a college football fan, but I can’t get past the fact that Leinart and Quinn were such losers in the pros. I even forgot that they were great in college football, given how bad they were in the NFL.

Here’s something else I can’t get over: Quinn’s scarf. What self-respecting man wears a scarf? It’s embarrassing. In fact, Quinn’s fashion choice might be worse than his NFL career! OK, maybe not.

3. A few weeks ago, I posted something about hot girls from Penn State because a commenter below said the following:

“You need to include more pictures of hot girls.”

Another commenter echoed those sentiments this previous weeks, so in honor of the Ohio State victory over Michigan, here’s what I found on Google when searching “hot Ohio State girls:”





Not to get too distracted from football, but I have Ohio State quarterback Justin Fields to the Broncos in my 2021 NFL Mock Draft. Given that he nearly suffered a scary injury in the Michigan game, Fields should consider sitting out all of 2020 in preparation for the NFL. He should learn from Tua Tagovailoa’s mistake.

CAROLINA OFFENSE: It was amazing that the Panthers couldn’t score a single point until garbage time after they went up 14-0 against the Redskins. Kyle Allen had a very favorable matchup versus Washington’s poor secondary, but he was sacked often and didn’t have a chance to find his improved receivers downfield as a consequence. His offensive line performed poorly, ruining any chance Allen had of beating the Redskins.

I don’t see why things would suddenly improve against the Falcons, who wrecked Allen in their previous meeting. They also put plenty of heat on Allen, who was sacked five times in that game. Atlanta’s pass rush has been better since the bye, and I don’t see why things would change in the rematch.

An improvement to the offensive line would certainly help matters. Christian McCaffrey, D.J. Moore and Curtis Samuel all have positive matchups, but Allen won’t have time to get the ball to his wideouts. The pressure is especially problematic, given that Allen has a penchant for having poor ball security in the pocket.

ATLANTA OFFENSE: I think everyone was shocked when the Falcons laid an egg versus the Buccaneers after upsetting both the Saints and Panthers. There was a reason for this, however, as Matt Ryan was missing his top two intermediate weapons, as Devonta Freeman and Austin Hooper both suffered injuries. It’s unclear if Hooper will be back this week, though that has a chance of happening, as Hooper practiced Monday. Freeman, meanwhile, returned to battle the Saints, and he was instrumental on some of Atlanta’s scoring drives.

Freeman has a great matchup against the Panthers, who can’t stop the run at all. Derrius Guice and Adrian Peterson combined to rush for more than 200 yards versus Carolina, and we’ve seen what other backs have done to this defense, including Tevin Coleman and his amazing performance in San Francisco’s blowout victory. Freeman should have a great game.

Meanwhile, the Falcons should have Julio Jones back from injury. Jones was a late scratch on Thanksgiving, but with nine days off, he should be able to return. The Panthers are much stronger against the pass, but it’ll be difficult for them to defend Jones, who caught six passes for 91 yards in the previous meeting.

RECAP: The Panthers were once 5-3, but they’ve dropped to 5-7 in the wake of their latest loss. This has eliminated them from the playoffs, so I don’t see them showing up to play the Falcons in what would ordinarily be a revenge spot.

I suppose this shouldn’t have been surprising. I pointed out a few weeks ago that DVOA had the Panthers ranked 27th (28th last week.) Carolina was a fraud this entire time, and it has been exposed recently. Now, with very little incentive to play hard, Carolina will likely mail in most of the games remaining this season, especially with Ron Rivera’s future in doubt.

With that in mind, it’s no surprise that the sharps have been betting the Falcons. Some sportsbooks have moved this line to -3 because of professional action on the host. I’ll be betting the Falcons as well, and the unit count will depend on who returns from injury.

I’m going to lock in at least two units at -2.5 (-105), available at BetUS. I may add a third later in the week, though the -2.5 line may not be available by then.

THURSDAY THOUGHTS: Ron Rivera has been fired. I imagine the Panthers will be distracted by this, so I like Atlanta more now. I’m going to increase my unit count later in the week. I’d like to make sure that Julio Jones is playing before I put more money on the Falcons.

SATURDAY NOTES: Holy s**t, the sharps have pounded the Falcons so much that the spread has broken through the key number of -3. I still love Atlanta if you can get -3, but -3.5 is much more unappealing. I think I’d be two units on Atlanta at -3.5 – I already bet two units on this game earlier – and about four units on the -3. That’s how important the key number of three is.

FINAL THOUGHTS: The sharps bet the Falcons at -2.5 and -3, but not at -3.5. That’s how I feel. I’d wager more units on Atlanta at -2.5 and -3, but -3.5 is just worth two units, which I’ve already wagered on Atlanta.


The Motivation. Edge: Falcons.
The Panthers have effectively been eliminated from the playoffs, so their energy level will be low.


The Spread. Edge: None.

WalterFootball.com Calculated Spread: Falcons -1.5.
Las Vegas Hilton Advance Point Spread: Falcons -1.
Computer Model: Falcons -2.
DVOA Spread: Falcons -6.5.


The Vegas. Edge: Panthers.
Lots of sharp action on the Falcons.

Percentage of money on Atlanta: 65% (10,000 bets)


The Trends. Edge: Falcons.

History: Falcons have won 8 of the last 11 meetings.

Falcons are 28-17 ATS following a loss of 6+ in the previous 45 instances.

Opening Line: Falcons -1.5.

Opening Total: 48.5.

Weather: Dome.

Week 14 NFL Pick: Falcons 31, Panthers 24
Falcons -2.5 -105 (2 Units) – BetUS — Correct; +$200
Over 47.5 (0 Units) — Correct; $0
Falcons 40, Panthers 20

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Detroit Lions (3-8-1) at Minnesota Vikings (8-4)
Line: Vikings by 13. Total: 44.
Sunday, Dec. 8, 1:00 PM


The Matchup. Edge: Vikings.

If you’ve followed this site for a while, you might remember that I like to respond to my spam mails. It all started seven years ago, when a man named Jon Wire from the “United Bank of Africoan” promised me an ATM card of some sort, so I responded as a man named Mister Compassion Chuck Norris, who was raised by wolves. The following season, I received e-mails from Richard Held and Loon Bruce, who told me I won a Facebook Award, which comes with a “lump sum pay out of (750,000.00 GBP).” Pretending to be Matthew Millen Kim, I sent out my application and fake money.

I’ve been messing around with spammers ever since, pretending to be Harvey Weinstein, Tom Brady, Ramsay Bolton and Walter White. I have brand new Spam Mails this year, so check them out if you want to see me screw with spammers. I’ll have new ones every week!

DETROIT OFFENSE: While everyone was out at the bars, enjoying various alcoholic beverages on the so-called biggest drinking night of the year, I was watching every single snap of David Blough’s from the preseason in response to the Lions naming him the starter over the injured Jeff Driskel. I went into this expecting nothing, but I came away impressed, as Blough reminded me of Nick Mullens. This projection panned out, as I won a three-unit wager on the Lions, thanks to Blough perfoming like I expected him to.

I don’t know what to expect from Blough in this matchup, assuming he’s named the starter over Matthew Stafford again. Blough has a nice matchup on paper, as the Vikings’ secondary is pathetic and tends to blow lots of coverages. Kenny Golladay and Marvin Jones won’t have any issues getting open versus the anemic Xavier Rhodes and company. However, Blough will be going up against Mike Zimmer, who has one of the best defensive minds in the NFL. Zimmer versus a rookie quarterback seems like too much of a mismatch, as Zimmer will be able to trick the Purdue product with some of his schemes.

Meanwhile, it’ll be difficult for the Lions to establish anything with Bo Scarbrough. Despite what we saw from a front that was unusually soft Monday night, the Vikings are usually pretty stellar at defending the run.

MINNESOTA OFFENSE: The Vikings’ chances of winning Monday night ended on one play, as Dalvin Cook and Stefon Diggs both got hurt, joining left tackle Riley Reiff, who suffered a concussion a bit earlier in the game. Cook and Reiff never returned to action. Diggs did, but was clearly not himself. He dropped two passes, one of which resulted in an interception. With Adam Thielen out, and Diggs banged up, the Vikings had no chance to move the chains until garbage time.

It’s unclear if Reiff will be able to clear concussion protocol on a short week, or if Diggs will be 100 percent, but Thielen could return. Thielen was questionable heading into Monday night, so he could return after another week off. He has a great matchup against inept slot cornerback Justin Coleman. With Cousins unlikely to see any sort of pressure, he’ll be able to torch the Lions in an easy game for him.

Meanwhile, Cook said he’ll return for Sunday’s game. The Lions are better versus the run than the pass, but they didn’t have a chance of stopping Cook in the first matchup between these teams, as Cook rushed for 142 yards and two touchdowns. I expect more of the same from Cook.

RECAP: This spread, according to all the metrics, is a bit too high. Everything says the Vikings should be favored anywhere between 10 and 12.5 points. However, there aren’t any key numbers between 10 and 14, so we’re not getting any real value with Detroit.

The one thing that stands out to me is what I referenced earlier. Zimmer versus a rookie quarterback just seems like too much of an advantage for Minnesota, so I’ll pick the Vikings to cover, even if the spread is a touch too high.

THURSDAY THOUGHTS: Adam Thielen has yet to practice, which is bad news for Minnesota bettors. However, it may not matter if Mike Zimmer tricks David Blough into throwing multiple interceptions. Barring some major injury developments, I won’t be betting on this game.

SATURDAY NOTES: Dalvin Cook will play in this game, but it seems as though Riley Reiff and Adam Thielen will be out. However, Matthew Stafford will be missing as well, meaning Mike Zimmer will be able to feast on a rookie quarterback. I don’t see myself betting either side.

FINAL THOUGHTS: I still have no play on this game. Adam Thielen is out, but that doesn’t matter too much to me. I think Mike Zimmer has too much of an advantage against a rookie quarterback.


The Motivation. Edge: None.
No edge found.


The Spread. Edge: None.

WalterFootball.com Calculated Spread: Vikings -12.5.
Las Vegas Hilton Advance Point Spread: No Line (Stafford).
Computer Model: Vikings -10.
DVOA Spread: Vikings -12.


The Vegas. Edge: Vikings.
Slight lean on the Lions.

Percentage of money on Detroit: 60% (9,000 bets)


The Trends. Edge: Vikings.

History: Vikings have won the last 4 meetings.

Lions are 16-11 ATS as a double-digit underdog since 2006 (5-10 since 2009).

Lions are 12-20 ATS on the road vs. teams with winning records since 2011.

Lions are 6-17 ATS as underdogs of 6 or more since 2011.

Mike Zimmer is 58-33 ATS as head coach of the Vikings.

Vikings are 31-14 ATS at home since 2014.

Opening Line: Vikings -14.

Opening Total: 42.5.

Weather: Dome.

Week 14 NFL Pick: Vikings 34, Lions 17
Vikings -13 (0 Units) — Push; $0
Over 44 (0 Units) — Incorrect; $0
Vikings 20, Lions 7

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Miami Dolphins (3-9) at New York Jets (4-8)
Line: Jets by 5. Total: 46.5.
Sunday, Dec. 8, 1:00 PM


The Matchup. Edge: None.

Video of the Week: I’ve posted Mario Maker 2 levels before, but this has to be the best one yet. The first minute or so just looks like a cool level, but keep watching. What happens is amazing:



Wow! I never thought I’d see multiple plot endings in a Super Mario level!

MIAMI OFFENSE: It’s truly amazing that Ryan Fitzpatrick hasn’t suffered a complete meltdown yet. I thought it would occur last week because Fitzpatrick would see lots of pressure from the Eagles’ front. It certainly seemed like the Dolphins would struggle following their first few drives, but Fitzpatrick caught fire, and Philadelphia couldn’t do anything to stop DeVante Parker.

Fitzpatrick could have another nice performance. He won’t see much pressure in this game, as the Jets don’t place much heat on opposing quarterbacks. Meanwhile, the Jets could be missing stud safety Jamal Adams, who sprained his ankle last week. This could open up some deep throws for Fitzpatrick, who hit plenty of them versus Philadelphia.

The Dolphins won’t be able to run the ball at all, given that the Jets have a prolific ground defense that limited Saquon Barkley to just one rushing yard a few weeks ago. However, it’s not like the Dolphins have been able to move the chains on the ground anyway. At the very least, Patrick Laird should have some success as a receiver versus the Jets’ decimated linebacking corps.

NEW YORK OFFENSE: I picked the Bengals to beat the Jets last week, but I didn’t expect New York’s offensive line to completely self destruct. That’s exactly what happened, however, as Sam Darnold was constantly under siege. The front had performed better ever since Kelvin Beachum returned to action, but that certainly was not the case against the Bengals.

Darnold should have more time in this game, as Miami doesn’t pressure the quarterback nearly as well as Cincinnati. If so, Darnold should be able to find Robby Anderson and Jamison Crowder for considerable gains against an injury-ravaged secondary that hasn’t stopped any passing attack this year.

Le’Veon Bell, meanwhile, will have a huge performance. The Dolphins are also woeful versus the run. They stood no chance against Miles Sanders, so Bell should produce better numbers.

RECAP: Darnold talked about making an improbable playoff run when the Jets won their second game of the season. Now that his dreams are over, I wonder if the Jets will quit. At 4-8, their playoff aspirations have come to an end, so they could be flat in this game.

I can’t believe I’m doing this, but I’m picking the Dolphins to cover the spread for the first time since Week 2. They have the worst roster I’ve ever seen, but given that the Adams-less Jets have a good chance of being no-shows, the extremely well-coached Dolphins could sneak inside the number and perhaps even win outright.

THURSDAY THOUGHTS: I don’t think I can bring myself to bet on the Dolphins, but I think they’re the right side against the potentially flat and Adams-less Jets.

SATURDAY NOTES: Holy hell, have you seen the Jets’ injury report? They’re down two of their top three cornerbacks, as well as their All-Pro safety, Jamal Adams. Their right tackle is out, while Le’Veon Bell won’t be on the field either. Even Sam Darnold is on the injury report after being banged up last week. Given that the Jets might be flat on top of being very banged up, I think a very strong case can be made for betting the Dolphins heavily. In fact, I selected them in the Supercontest. I might bet Miami at four units, as the Jets, given how injured and unmotivated they are, have no business being 5.5-point favorites.

FINAL THOUGHTS: The Jets have so many injuries that I’m going to put a fourth unit on the Dolphins. I just don’t see why New York would show up, while the Dolphins will be motivated to be Adam Gase again – I think! The best lines I found are +4.5 -105 at 5Dimes and +5 -108 at Heritage. The math says the latter is a bit better, but it’s close.


The Motivation. Edge: Dolphins.
Sam Darnold spoke about making the playoffs. Now that his dream is over, will the Jets show up against a horrible opponent?


The Spread. Edge: Jets.

WalterFootball.com Calculated Spread: Jets -8.5.
Las Vegas Hilton Advance Point Spread: Jets -7.5.
Computer Model: Jets -6.
DVOA Spread: Jets -7.5.


The Vegas. Edge: Jets.
Slight lean on the Dolphins.

Percentage of money on Miami: 62% (10,000 bets)


The Trends. Edge: None.

History: Road Team has won 14 of the last non-London 23 meetings.

Opening Line: Jets -7.5.

Opening Total: 44.

Weather: .

Week 14 NFL Pick: Jets 23, Dolphins 20
Dolphins +5 -108 (4 Units) – Heritage — Correct; +$400
Dolphins +190 (0.5 Units) – Bookmaker/5Dimes — Incorrect; -$50
Under 46.5 (0 Units) — Correct; $0
Jets 22, Dolphins 21

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Indianapolis Colts (6-6) at Tampa Bay Buccaneers (5-7)
Line: Buccaneers by 3. Total: 47.
Sunday, Dec. 8, 1:00 PM


The Matchup. Edge: Buccaneers.

The 2019 Adventures of Tom Brady’s Haircuts are here!



To read about this, check out the 2019 Adventures of Tom Brady’s Haircuts via the link!

INDIANAPOLIS OFFENSE: I mentioned near the top of this page that one of the mistakes I made was betting too many units on the Colts last week. Sure, they were beaten by a ridiculous blocked field goal returned for a touchdown, but they couldn’t move the chains effectively for most of the afternoon because of all the injuries to their offensive play-makers. With T.Y. Hilton and Eric Ebron being out, Jacoby Brissett’s top options were Jack Doyle and Zach Pascal. Beyond them, he had to throw to people named Marcus Johnson and Ashton Dulin in the wake of Chester Rogers’ injury. Who? Exactly.

Brissett obviously has a great matchup against Tampa’s poor, albeit improving secondary, but whether or not he can capitalize on that depends on Hilton’s availability. It doesn’t sound like Hilton will be able to play, as Frank Reich said he’s “hopeful” Hilton can return at a certain point this season. That’s not a ringing endorsement for Hilton’s chances of playing this week.

Brissett forced into throwing to scrubs is problematic, given that the Buccaneers have the top run defense in the NFL. Marlon Mack might be able to return this week, but it won’t matter, as the Buccaneers have shut down running backs like Christian McCaffrey this season.

TAMPA BAY OFFENSE: Like the Buccaneers, the Colts are stronger against the run than the pass. Their cornerbacks are the weakness of their roster. That obviously does not bode well for them in this matchup.

Jameis Winston is always at risk to have a multi-interception debacle, but he’s been more careful with the football in recent weeks. Mike Evans and Chris Godwin have easy matchups in this game, so unless Winston regresses – which is a real possibility – he should have a monster game against Indianapolis’ secondary.

The Colts have been much better against the run since getting Darius Leonard back from injury, so it’s hard to see Tampa getting anything on the ground in this matchup, regardless of which runner Bruce Arians decides to use this week.

RECAP: I really like the Buccaneers at -3 or less. They have the aerial attack to expose Indianapolis’ defensive weakness, while their secondary won’t face much of a challenge against the Colts’ injury-ravaged receiving corps.

It goes beyond that, however. We’re getting strong edges in motivation and Vegas. There’s tons of money coming in on the Colts. Indianapolis, as a result, is a massive public dog, which will have the Buccaneers playing for respect because everyone will be picking against them at home. Tampa has been brilliant in recent weeks anyhow, thanks to a healthier offensive line and an improved secondary, and I expect the team to continue to perform above expectations.

THURSDAY THOUGHTS: The betting action is no longer lopsided, unfortunately. However, T.Y. Hilton hasn’t practiced yet this week, so as long as that remains the case, I’ll be on the Buccaneers for two units or so.

SATURDAY NOTES: T.Y. Hilton is out, which is obviously enormous. However, an underrated injury is Kenny Moore’s ankle. Moore is out, meaning the Colts could be without two top corners, as Rock Ya-Sin is questionable after missing practice Friday. That seems like a terrible situation against Tampa’s receivers. However, I worry a bit about the Buccaneers’ motivation, as they tend to be flat at home (see stats below.)

FINAL THOUGHTS: Rock Ya-Sin will play, so the Colts will at least have him. I may have placed a third unit on the Buccaneers if he were out, but Indianapolis’ cornerback situation isn’t that devastating. Still, the sharps are betting Tampa, which is why the juice has risen across the board. The best line I found is Tampa Bay -3 -115 at FanDuel.


The Motivation. Edge: Colts.
The Buccaneers tend to be very flat at home.


The Spread. Edge: Colts.

WalterFootball.com Calculated Spread: Buccaneers -1.5.
Las Vegas Hilton Advance Point Spread: Buccaneers -2.
Computer Model: Buccaneers -1.
DVOA Spread: Buccaneers -2.5.


The Vegas. Edge: None.
Equal action.

Percentage of money on Indianapolis: 51% (12,000 bets)


The Trends. Edge: Colts.

Road Team is 97-59 ATS in Buccaneers games since 2009.

Buccaneers are 24-54 ATS at home in the previous 78 instances.

Opening Line: Buccaneers -2.

Opening Total: 50.5.

Weather: Partly cloudy, 77 degrees. Light wind.

Week 14 NFL Pick: Buccaneers 31, Colts 24
Buccaneers -3 -115 (2 Units) – FanDuel — Push; $0
Over 47 (0 Units) — Correct; $0
Buccaneers 38, Colts 35

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Week 14 NFL Picks – Late Games
Chargers at Jaguars, Titans at Raiders, Chiefs at Patriots, Steelers at Cardinals, Seahawks at Rams, Giants at Eagles




Prop/Teaser/Parlay Picks
A list of some of my favorite team/player prop picks this week
(Offense & defensive ROY picks to be counted whenever winners are announced.) Picks carried over on a week-to-week basis will be in black.

Prop/teaser/parlay picks posted in Week 14 NFL Picks – Late Games



2024 NFL Mock Draft - April 16


NFL Power Rankings - Feb. 22


Fantasy Football Rankings - Feb. 19


NFL Picks - Feb. 12




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My Team-by-Team ATS Record
This section shows how well I do when picking each team this year. The purpose is to see how well I read each team. Pushes are not displayed. Winning/losing streak in parentheses.

Cowboys: 8-9	Bears: 11-4	Bucs: 6-11	49ers: 10-7
Eagles: 7-7	Lions: 9-8	Falcons: 8-9	Cardinals: 8-9
Giants: 7-9	Packers: 5-12	Panthers: 8-9	Rams: 8-9
Redskins: 14-3	Vikings: 6-9	Saints: 10-7	Seahawks: 7-9
Bills: 9-7	Bengals: 12-5	Colts: 7-10	Broncos: 9-6
Dolphins: 6-11	Browns: 11-5	Jaguars: 13-4	Chargers: 8-9
Jets: 8-9	Ravens: 11-6	Texans: 5-12	Chiefs: 5-10
Patriots: 7-9	Steelers: 11-6	Titans: 9-8	Raiders: 6-9
Divisional: 50-35 (2011-22: 558-526)	2x Game Edge: 36-24 (2011-22: 363-361)	2x Motivation Edge: 32-36 (2011-22: 478-405)	2x Spread Edge: 41-40 (2011-22: 197-168)
2x Vegas Edge: 41-38 (2011-22: 407-406)	2x Trend Edge: 15-13 (2011-22: 306-279)	Double Edge: 17-13 (2011-22: 190-172)	Triple Edge: 1-1 (2011-22: 32-36)