NFL Picks Against the Spread: Week 17, 2019

NFL Picks (Preseason 2019): 14-6 (+$1,535)
NFL Picks (Week 1, 2019): 5-10-1 (-$515)
NFL Picks (Week 2, 2019): 10-6 (+$140)
NFL Picks (Week 3, 2019): 10-6 (+$1,365)
NFL Picks (Week 4, 2019): 12-3 (+$1,240)
NFL Picks (Week 5, 2019): 8-7 (+$1,665)
NFL Picks (Week 6, 2019): 9-5 (+$2,505)
NFL Picks (Week 7, 2019): 8-6 (+$1,130)
NFL Picks (Week 8, 2019): 8-7 (+$435)
NFL Picks (Week 9, 2019): 3-9-1 (-$770)
NFL Picks (Week 10, 2019): 8-5 (+$1,460)
NFL Picks (Week 11, 2019): 8-5-1 (-$1,790)
NFL Picks (Week 12, 2019): 9-5 (+$1,015)
NFL Picks (Week 13, 2019): 9-7 (+$205)
NFL Picks (Week 14, 2019): 3-11-2 (-$2,195)
NFL Picks (Week 15, 2019): 4-11-1 (-$2,195)
NFL Picks (Week 16, 2019): 11-4-1 (+$1,065)

NFL Picks (2019): 139-113-7 (+$6,715)
NFL Picks (2018): 140-134-12 (+$845)
NFL Picks (2017): 137-147-10 (-$4,300)
NFL Picks (2016): 148-127-10 (+$780)
NFL Picks (2015): 133-138-10 (-$3,215)
NFL Picks (2014): 143-133-7 (-$1,885)
NFL Picks (2013): 144-131-8 (+$7,825)
NFL Picks (2012): 130-145-8 (-$7,445)
NFL Picks (2011): 137-133-12 (-$1,335)
NFL Picks (2010): 144-131-8 (+$5,880)
NFL Picks (2009): 151-124-9 (+$4,235)
NFL Picks (2008): 136-125-6 (+$6,105)
NFL Picks (2007): 162-135-10 (+$3,585)
If you don’t quite understand the line, total or anything else, go to my Sports Betting FAQ.

Vegas betting action updated Dec. 29, 11:40 a.m. ET. Follow @walterfootball for updates.

Go to Week 17 NFL Picks – Early Games

Tennessee Titans (8-7) at Houston Texans (10-5)
Line: Titans by 8. Total: 44.
Sunday, Dec. 29, 4:25 PM

The Matchup. Edge: Titans.

Video of the Week: Weeks ago, I posted a pitch meeting for Game of Thrones Season 8. Here’s another pitch meeting video from a Christmas classic:

True story: I saw Home Alone in the movie theater with my parents when I was a child. Afterward, my dad said, “Why can’t you be smart like that kid?” This inspired me to build a death trap (a glass bottle would fall on an intruder who tripped a vine) in a clubhouse my friends and I used to hang out in near my home to keep this one a**hole out of there. Unfortunately, my friend Josh felt guilty about it and disabled the death trap that night.

RESTING STARTERS: It’s Week 17, so I’m not going to analyze the matchups of games where teams will be resting their starters. This is one such game, as the Texans are locked into the No. 3 or 4 seed in the AFC playoffs. Bill O’Brien said he was going to play his starters, but he didn’t specify for how long. He may have been lying as well; I can think of past instances where coaches have said this, only to use their reserves instead. O’Brien would be foolish to risk Deshaun Watson and DeAndre Hopkins’ health in a meaningless game, but then again, he is quite the buffoon. Nevertheless, I’ll proceed as though the Texans will use A.J. McCarron extensively.

RECAP: This is a conflict of things I look for in Week 17. I like to fade teams resting their starters, as long as I believe the other team will have motivation. That’s clearly the case with the Titans, who will qualify for the playoffs with a victory.

On the other hand, I love to fade teams that need to win. As legendary handicapper Dave Cokin once said, “If a team needs to win, they’re probably not very good in the first place.” Cokin is right, as these teams tend to choke in Week 17. I call this the Aurora Snowmo Effect, naming it after Aurora Snow, a porn star who choked a lot, and Tony Romo, who had some disappointing results in the clutch early in his career.

I can’t make up my mind which Week 17 aspect I’d like to fade more, so this, sadly, is a non-wager. Don’t worry though, as there will be plenty of Aurora Snowmo games coming up.

THURSDAY THOUGHTS: This spread has dropped to -3.5 because people are buying what Bill O’Brien said about playing his starters. I’m not buying it. O’Brien is stupid, but he can’t be that much of an idiot to repeat the same mistake Jason Garrett made last year when he was responsible for Cole Beasley getting hurt in a similar situation.

FRIDAY UPDATE: Despite Bill O’Brien saying the starters won’t play, Deshaun Watson told the media that he didn’t know if he would suit up during Sunday’s game. I suspect he won’t. I’m going to lock in the Titans for a few units if this spread hits -3.

SATURDAY NOTES: This spread has risen to -6, but I wouldn’t be so quick to jump on the Titans before the line moves up again. Tennessee is in Aurora Snowmo territory, even against projected starting quarterback A.J. McCarron. Also, the Titans will be missing Adoree Jackson, so throwing on them will be easy, even for McCarron.

SUNDAY MORNING NOTES: This line is up to -8, and every square is betting Tennessee. I don’t know… I could see a Titan choke job coming.

FINAL THOUGHTS: The Texans are resting their starters, as they didn’t even bother to dress Laremy Tunsil. The Titans seem like an easy play, but they could just as easily choke.

The Motivation. Edge: None.
The Titans need to win, so the Aurora Snowmo Effect is in play. However, the Texans are likely to sit their starters, so they may not try hard.

The Spread. Edge: None.

WalterFootball.com Calculated Spread: No Line.
Las Vegas Hilton Advance Point Spread: Texans -1.
Computer Model: No Line.
DVOA Spread: No Line.

The Vegas. Edge: Texans.
Slight lean against the Texans’ backups.

Percentage of money on Houston: 62% (5,000 bets)

The Trends. Edge: Texans.

History: Texans have won 11 of the last 15 meetings.

Opening Line: Texans -1.

Opening Total: 49.

Weather: .

Week 17 NFL Pick: Titans 26, Texans 16
Titans -8 (0 Units) — Correct; $0
Under 44 (0 Units) — Incorrect; $0
Titans 35, Texans 14

Indianapolis Colts (7-8) at Jacksonville Jaguars (5-10)
Line: Colts by 6. Total: 41.5.
Sunday, Dec. 29, 4:25 PM

The Matchup. Edge: Colts.

The 2019 Adventures of Tom Brady’s Haircuts are here!

To read about this, check out the 2019 Adventures of Tom Brady’s Haircuts via the link!

INDIANAPOLIS OFFENSE: Jacoby Brissett and Marlon Mack’s stats might appear to be disappointing from last week’s game, but that was the result of Indianapolis’ scoring unit not having to do very much. That’s because the Colts effectively scored thrice on punt returns. There were two touchdowns, while the third return put the ball right outside of the red zone.

This obviously won’t happen every week, but the Colts won’t need this sort of luck in this matchup. The Jaguars have been miserable defensively ever since they traded away Jalen Ramsey and lost several linebackers to injury. They have a horrible run defense, so Mack figures to have a huge game.

Meanwhile, Jacksonville’s secondary has collapsed without Ramsey. We’ve seen now that A.J. Bouye can’t cover No. 1 receivers, so T.Y. Hilton could have a strong outing. Jack Doyle, meanwhile, figures to abuse a linebacking corps missing its top three players at the position.

JACKSONVILLE OFFENSE: The Jaguars had a positive matchup last week, yet scored just 12 points in Atlanta. There were several issues, one of which was the offensive line. Jacksonville’s blocking unit continues to be poor, and it won’t be able to protect Gardner Minshew against the Colts’ solid pass rush.

Another problem from last week was D.J. Chark’s health. Chark returned from his Week 15 absence, but it was clear that he had trouble cutting. He barely did anything, so unless his health improves, Minshew won’t have very many viable options at his disposal.

Running the ball won’t work very well either. The Colts have been stellar against the run ever since they got Darius Leonard back from injury earlier in the season.

RECAP: One thing I love to look for in Week 17 is fading teams whose coach will be fired. These teams seldom put forth any sort of fight unless they have a legitimate reason to play hard.

That doesn’t apply to the Jaguars in this game, so I’m hoping for news to break that Marrone will be axed following this contest. I normally don’t root for people to be fired, but considering that Marrone did his best to sabotage the previous coaching regime, he deserves what’s coming to him. Plus, it’ll make for a great betting opportunity on the Colts!

Unfortunately, I’m not seeing any news that Marrone will be fired. I’m going to take the Colts as a non-wager at the moment, but if there’s some Marrone news, I’ll put some units on the visitor.

THURSDAY THOUGHTS: As with Freddie Kitchens, no news has been written about Marrone being fired. Let’s hope we see something soon.

FRIDAY UPDATE: Something I forgot to mention is that the Colts can reach .500 with a win, which is sometimes a big deal for teams, especially those that didn’t really have great playoff aspirations. That’s not going to increase my unit count one way or another; I just thought it should be mentioned. At any rate, Gardner Minshew has popped up on the injury report with a shoulder injury. I thought Minshew had a chance to play well versus an Indianapolis cornerback group that likely won’t have Kenny Moore again.

SATURDAY NOTES: Gardner Minshew is officially questionable with a shoulder, while Leonard Fournette has the same designation after missing practice Thursday and Friday. The Jaguars may not want to push things, so they could sit both guys. We’ve seen Jacksonville not play very hard for Nick Foles, so the same thing could happen again this week, especially in the wake of the news that Doug Marrone won’t be back next year. I’m going to bet three units on the Colts even though the line has risen to -6. The best juice is at BetUS and FanDuel, which have -105 listed.

SATURDAY NIGHT UPDATE: Leonard Fournette has been downgraded to doubtful, while A.J. Bouye has been ruled out. The Jaguars will be a no-show. I’m upgrading to five units.

SUNDAY MORNING NOTES: This spread is up to -6.5. I’d still bet the Colts for four units at that number.

FINAL THOUGHTS: There’s a -6 available at Bookmaker if you haven’t bet this game yet. Leonard Fournette is officially out, as is A.J. Bouye. With Doug Marrone on his way out, the Jaguars figure to quit.

The Motivation. Edge: Colts.

No edge found, unless reports surface that the Jaguars will fire Doug Marrone.

The Spread. Edge: Jaguars.

WalterFootball.com Calculated Spread: Colts -3.
Las Vegas Hilton Advance Point Spread: Jaguars -1.5.
Computer Model: Colts -4.
DVOA Spread: Colts -1 (last week).

The Vegas. Edge: Jaguars.

No surprise that people are fading the Jaguars.

Percentage of money on Indianapolis: 76% (5,000 bets)

The Trends. Edge: None.

History: 21 of the last 34 meetings decided by 8 points or fewer (Colts 9-4 SU, 7-6 ATS last 13).

Opening Line: Colts -1.

Opening Total: 44.5.

Weather: Cloudy, 73 degrees. Light wind.

Week 17 NFL Pick: Colts 20, Jaguars 10
Colts -6 -105 (5 Units) – BetUS/FanDuel — Incorrect; -$525
Under 42 (0 Units) — Incorrect; $0
Jaguars 38, Colts 20

Washington Redskins (3-12) at Dallas Cowboys (7-8)
Line: Cowboys by 12.5. Total: 46.
Sunday, Dec. 29, 4:25 PM

The Matchup. Edge: None.

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DALLAS OFFENSE: The Cowboys had a great matchup entering Sunday’s game against Philadelphia, yet they mustered just nine points. There were many factors that created this disappointing outcome, primarily the play of Dak Prescott.

Prescott hasn’t performed well in the past three weeks. He suffered an injury early versus the Bears and struggled for the rest of that contest. He then told his teammates he couldn’t throw the ball in the huddle versus the Rams. He had to pass versus the Eagles, and he was dreadful at it. He was very inaccurate, and it didn’t help that Amari Cooper was clearly hobbled by his injury. Cooper wasn’t even on the field for important plays.

Prescott and Cooper have another nice matchup to take advantage of, especially if the Redskins are missing top cornerback Quinton Dunbar again. However, if Prescott and Cooper suddenly don’t improve their health, I can’t see them having much success moving the chains consistently. Ezekiel Elliott will give the Cowboys a glimmer of hope, but the Redskins happen to be much better versus the run than the pass.

WASHINGTON OFFENSE: Dwayne Haskins was enjoying a solid effort against the Giants before suffering an injury. Case Keenum took his place and picked up where he left off. Keenum played well, especially when leading his team on a 98-yard touchdown drive at the very end to force overtime.

The Cowboys have major issues in their secondary, particularly at safety, so Keenum figures to have success once again, especially with an emerging receiving corps. Terry McLaurin, Steven Sims Jr. and Kelvin Harmon are all young wideouts who have improved lately, so they could make some big plays against Dallas’ secondary.

The Cowboys are much better against the run than the pass, so Adrian Peterson won’t be a factor on the ground. However, Dallas has been susceptible to pass-catching backs, so Chris Thompson could have some nice gains.

RECAP: This spread is way too high. My personal line is Dallas -6.5. It’s important to look elsewhere, however, and yet all of the projections don’t match what the line actually is. Dallas was -7.5 on the advance spread. DVOA thinks this line should be -8. The computer model, which is most bullish on the Cowboys, projects a -10 line. The thing is, all of these numbers don’t even factor in the injuries that Prescott and Cooper are enduring! That begs the question, why is this spread so inflated? That’s easy; it’s because the Cowboys need to win. However, this has been debunked many times over the years. I referenced the Cokin quote earlier about teams having to win not being good in the first place. This is also a classic case of the Aurora Snowmo Effect. The Cowboys are highly likely to choke.

The Redskins, meanwhile, would love nothing more than to knock out their arch rival from the playoffs. This is their “Super Bowl,” especially after Dallas humiliated them back in Week 2. They’ll want revenge, and they may just get it.

THURSDAY THOUGHTS: Dak Prescott has yet to practice this week, which can’t be a surprise. I don’t understand why Dallas is favored by so many points.

FRIDAY UPDATE: Dak Prescott has yet to throw in practice. Also, DeMarcus Lawrence and Tyron Smith haven’t practiced yet this week. Why are the Cowboys favored by double digits again?

SATURDAY NOTES: The Redskins have a slew of injuries, as they’re down their top cornerbacks, as well as Landon Collins and Terry McLaurin. However, the Cowboys have problems of their own, as Tyron Smith didn’t practice all week, while Dak Prescott barely did anything in practice. This line keeps rising, so hopefully we get a chance at a +14 line.

SUNDAY MORNING NOTES: There’s no +14 yet, or even a +13. Tyron Smith is going to be out, which is a huge deal.

FINAL THOUGHTS: Tyron Smith is out, and so is Byron Jones! With Dak Prescott and Amari Cooper banged up, I don’t understand why the Cowboys would be favored by 13. That’s the line pretty much everywhere, including BetUS, Bookmaker and 5Dimes. Heritage has +13 -108 available.

The Motivation. Edge: Redskins.

The Cowboys need to win, so the Aurora Snowmo Effect is in play. This is the Redskins’ “Super Bowl.”

The Spread. Edge: Redskins.

WalterFootball.com Calculated Spread: Cowboys -6.5.
Las Vegas Hilton Advance Point Spread: Cowboys -7.5.
Computer Model: Cowboys -10.
DVOA Spread: Cowboys -8.

The Vegas. Edge: None.
Equal action.

Percentage of money on Washington: 58% (8,000 bets)

The Trends. Edge: Redskins.

History: Underdog has covered 14 of the previous 22 meetings.

The underdog is 93-62 ATS in Cowboys games since 2010.

Cowboys are 18-12 ATS after playing the Eagles since 2000.

Opening Line: Cowboys -14.

Opening Total: 44.

Weather: Dome.

Week 17 NFL Pick: Redskins 26, Cowboys 23
Redskins +13 -108 (5 Units) – Heritage — Incorrect; -$540
Redskins +505 (0.5 Units) – Bookmaker — Incorrect; -$50
Over 46 (0 Units) — Correct; $0
Cowboys 47, Redskins 16

Philadelphia Eagles (8-7) at New York Giants (4-11)
Line: Eagles by 4. Total: 44.
Sunday, Dec. 29, 4:25 PM

The Matchup. Edge: None.

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PHILADELPHIA OFFENSE: Save for one throw, Carson Wentz was excellent against the Cowboys. He completed 31-of-40 passes, constantly engineering drives to score points and keep Dallas’ offense off the field. It was amazing that he did this, considering the circumstances. Already down Alshon Jeffery, DeSean Jackson and Lane Johnson, Wentz also lost Zach Ertz for a chunk of the game with a rib injury.

It sounds like Ertz won’t play in this contest. Luckily for Wentz, he’ll be matched up against the Giants’ miserable secondary. Wentz already beat New York a few weeks ago, and yet this is an even easier matchup because Janoris Jenkins is no longer on the team. The Monday night battle against the Eagles was actually Jenkins’ final game with New York. His absence has made an already-poor secondary even worse. The Giants didn’t even stand a chance against Dwayne Haskins and Case Keenum last week, so how will they contain Wentz, even without Ertz?

Meanwhile, stopping Miles Sanders will be a major challenge. Sanders missed some action in that Monday night affair, but he’ll be ready to take advantage of a great matchup. The Giants stop the run well, but they’re miserable at stopping receiving backs. Sanders, of course, excels as a pass-catcher out of the backfield.

NEW YORK OFFENSE: The Giants nearly beat the Eagles at the Linc a few weeks ago, and yet this was with Eli Manning at the helm. Manning made some nice throws in the opening half, but failed to score a single point following intermission. Manning is obviously done, so once the Eagles honed in on him, he didn’t stand a chance.

Daniel Jones is obviously a different story. Jones returned from injury last week and dominated the Redskins. Granted, Washington was missing its top two cornerbacks, but it’s not like the Eagles have the best secondary either. Jones has a much better arm than Manning at this stage of their careers, and he’s not immobile like the two-time Super Bowl champion either. He’ll be able to use his legs to his advantage to buy himself time to beat the Eagles’ miserable cornerbacks.

Jones will also benefit from Saquon Barkley’s return to 100-percent form. Barkley had labored through an injury since coming back from his hiatus, but it took him a while to become perfectly healthy. We saw a glimpse of it versus the Dolphins, and Barkley was even better this past Sunday. The Eagles have a strong run defense, but they’re also susceptible pass-catching backs, so Barkley could once again have some huge gains as a receiver out of the backfield.

RECAP: As with the Dallas-Washington game, this spread is too high. My projected line is Philadelphia -1.5. DVOA ratings are even more bearish on the Eagles, thinking that -1 is correct. Either way, we’re getting great value by fading Philadelphia, as the key numbers of three and four are available via the Giants.

This spread is inflated for the same reason the Cowboys’ line is. The Eagles need to win, so people foolishly think this gives them some sort of an advantage when it clearly doesn’t. Once again, the Aurora Snowmo Effect applies.

I think the Giants are a great play. Not only do we get great value with them while fading an Aurora Snowmo situation, we’re siding with a team that will be playing its “Super Bowl,” as it’ll be eager to knock off the Eagles.

This is a huge rivalry, and the battles between these two teams are almost always decided by one score. Considering the circumstances, I don’t see why this game would be any different.

THURSDAY THOUGHTS: Zach Ertz has yet to practice. We’ll see if he takes the field. Either way, I love the Giants, but I would obviously prefer it if Ertz sat.

FRIDAY UPDATE: Things aren’t looking good for the Eagles at the moment; Zach Ertz picked up a new injury designation in practice, as he’s now being listed with a back on top of ribs. Meanwhile, Lane Johnson has yet to practice, which is a huge deal.

SATURDAY NOTES: The sharps have jumped on the Eagles, dragging this line down to +4, or even +3.5 in some sportsbooks. I imagine this was a response to the news that Zach Ertz would be out. I’m going to lock in +4 before this spread falls again. The only places I see +4 -110 are 5Dimes and FanDuel.

SUNDAY MORNING NOTES: The Giants are down to +3.5, thanks to a slew of sharp action on the home dog.

FINAL THOUGHTS: Lane Johnson is officially out, as is Jalen Mills. The Eagles are in very rough shape, so I love the Giants. The sharps were betting them at +4.5 and +4, but not at +3.5.

The Motivation. Edge: Giants.

The Eagles must win, so here’s another Aurora Snowmo game. This is the Giants’ “Super Bowl.”

The Spread. Edge: Giants.

WalterFootball.com Calculated Spread: Eagles -1.5.
Las Vegas Hilton Advance Point Spread: Eagles -5.
Computer Model: Eagles -7.
DVOA Spread: Eagles -1.

The Vegas. Edge: None.
Equal action.

Percentage of money on Philadelphia: 57% (13,000 bets)

The Trends. Edge: None.

History: Road Team has won 15 of the last 25 meetings.

History: Eagles have won 20 the last 23 meetings.

Opening Line: Eagles -4.

Opening Total: 45.

Weather: Cloudy, 42 degrees. Light wind.

Week 17 NFL Pick: Eagles 24, Giants 23
Giants +4 (5 Units) – 5Dimes/FanDuel — Incorrect; -$550
Giants +170 (0.5 Units) – any sportsbook — Incorrect; -$50
Over 44 (0 Units) — Correct; $0
Eagles 34, Giants 17

Pittsburgh Steelers (8-7) at Baltimore Ravens (13-2)
Line: Steelers by 1. Total: 36.5.
Sunday, Dec. 29, 4:25 PM

The Matchup. Edge: Steelers.

Emmitt on the Brink Season 12 is complete! Congress finally removes Emmitt as NFL commissioner. What will become of him, and who will be the next NFL commissioner? Perhaps someone with the best story?

RESTING STARTERS: It’s Week 17, so I’m not going to analyze the matchups of games where teams will be resting their starters. This is one such game, as the Ravens are locked into the No. 1 seed in the AFC playoffs.

RECAP: This also qualifies as an Aurora Snowmo game, but not really. The Ravens have already announced that they will be resting their best players. Robert Griffin will start at quarterback, and he won’t have the services of Mark Andrews or Baltimore’s excellent offensive line. Griffin, paired with backup players, will somehow have to beat Pittsburgh’s excellent defense.

That said, there’s still a good chance the Steelers will choke. They couldn’t even beat the injury-ridden Jets last week, scoring 10 points against a hobbled defense because Duck Hodges was terrible.

I’d love to bet against the Steelers, but I can’t wager money on Griffin and the Baltimore backups. This will be a zero-unit selection on Pittsburgh.

THURSDAY THOUGHTS: I thought we were going to see the Steelers hit -3, but the sharps apparently aren’t too crazy about them this week (at least not yet.)

FRIDAY UPDATE: Once again, this is not an appealing game at all, especially with the spread not looking like it’ll hit +3.

SATURDAY NOTES: The Steelers seem like they’re in a position to choke, even against Robert Griffin and the Baltimore backups. I’m not betting this game.

SUNDAY MORNING NOTES: The Ravens are now favored! WOW!!! The sharps are pounding Baltimore, and I don’t blame them one bit.

FINAL THOUGHTS: The Steelers are now favored again (by a point). The sharps bet on the Ravens earlier, but that money stopped coming. I still have no interest in this game.

The Motivation. Edge: None.
The Steelers need to win, but the Ravens won’t be trying because they’ll be sitting their starters.

The Spread. Edge: None.

WalterFootball.com Calculated Spread: No Line.
Las Vegas Hilton Advance Point Spread: Ravens -3.
Computer Model: No Line.
DVOA Spread: No Line.

The Vegas. Edge: Steelers.
The sharps are betting the Ravens.

Percentage of money on Baltimore: 64% (13,000 bets)

The Trends. Edge: Ravens.

History: Home Team has won 24 of the last 37 meetings.

Mike Tomlin is 9-4 ATS in same-season revenge games.

Steelers are 25-41 ATS as road favorites since 2007.

John Harbaugh is 11-1 SU at home vs. rookie quarterbacks.

Opening Line: Ravens -2.5.

Opening Total: 40.5.

Weather: Cloudy, 45 degrees. Light wind.

Week 17 NFL Pick: Steelers 6, Ravens 3
Steelers +1 (0 Units) — Incorrect; $0
Under 36.5 (0 Units) — Incorrect; $0
Ravens 28, Steelers 10

Arizona Cardinals (5-9-1) at Los Angeles Rams (8-7)
Line: Rams by 7. Total: 45.
Sunday, Dec. 29, 4:25 PM

The Matchup. Edge: None.

A reminder that Jerks of the Week for this week is up, so just click the link. This week’s jerks entry is called Daughter for Sale.

ARIZONA OFFENSE: There currently is no spread posted on this game at the moment because it’s unclear if Kyler Murray will play. He tweaked his hamstring in the second half of last week’s game against the Seahawks. It wouldn’t be a surprise if the Cardinals held him out because this is the finale.

It’s difficult to imagine Brett Hundley having a good performance against the Rams when Murray couldn’t even enjoy one in this matchup several weeks ago. The Rams’ ferocious pass rush forced Murray into many poor throws, as he constantly saw pressure. Nothing has changed since, so Hundley could self-destruct in this matchup.

That said, the Rams are much weaker to the run than the pass, so Kenyan Drake might be able to break some long gains, especially if the Rams aren’t fully invested into this game. Drake has been spectacular in recent weeks, so his excellent play could continue.

LOS ANGELES OFFENSE: Jared Goff has struggled for most of this season, but he played well last week, as Sean McVay got him out of the pocket. I’m not sure this is a viable strategy for the long haul, but it could work against Arizona’s horrible defense.

Then again, McVay may not even need to be creative. Though Chandler Jones will win his battle in the trenches, the Cardinals have so many holes in their linebacking corps and secondary that Goff should have a strong outing, as his receivers and tight ends will win their matchups rather easily.

The one caveat is that the Cardinals may not have to worry about stopping Todd Gurley this time. With the playoffs off the table, the Rams may opt to rest Gurley to avoid a disastrous injury in a meaningless game. It goes without saying that the Rams’ offense won’t be nearly as potent without Gurley.

RECAP: There’s no spread posted yet, so I can’t give you a concrete pick at the moment. I don’t know what the line will be, but I think I might favor the Cardinals if Murray plays. The Rams may quit after being eliminated from the playoffs, and I could see this spread coming in high after how well Los Angeles played Saturday night.

If, however, Hundley starts, I may opt to go with the Rams if the spread isn’t too high. I have no faith in Hundley doing much against a great defense.

I’ll have a pick posted when a line becomes available. Check back, or follow me @walterfootball for updates.

THURSDAY THOUGHTS: There’s no line yet. I should note that the spread in the Westgate Supercontest is Rams -3, so I’ll be on them if Brett Hundley starts.

FRIDAY UPDATE: There’s still no spread, but Kyler Murray practiced twice, which is encouraging. Also, Sean McVay hinted that he may sit some starters in the second half in an attempt to avoid injury, so the Rams are completely off the table as far as a wager is concerned unless Brett Hundley is named Arizona’s starter.

SATURDAY NOTES: Kyler Murray is a game-time decision, which isn’t very helpful at the moment. I suppose I’ll be making an official pick around 4 p.m.

SUNDAY MORNING NOTES: There’s still no word on Kyler Murray. He’s a game-time decision, so check back around 3:45 for my pick on this game.

FINAL THOUGHTS: Kyler Murray will start this game, so the +7 looks good to me. This line is too high, as the Rams may quit after being eliminated from the playoffs. Also, the Rams will be missing their top two cornerbacks, including Jalen Ramsey, so that’s a nice advantage for the Cardinals. It’s tough to find a +7 -110, but that’s available at BetUS and FanDuel. Heritage, meanwhile, has a +7 -108 listed. I’m going to wager two units on Arizona.

The Motivation. Edge: Cardinals.

The Rams were just eliminated from the playoffs, so there will be low effort.

The Spread. Edge: TBA.

WalterFootball.com Calculated Spread: Rams -6.
Las Vegas Hilton Advance Point Spread: Rams -7.
Computer Model: Rams -10.
DVOA Spread: Rams -3.

The Vegas. Edge: Cardinals.
Slight lean on the Rams.

Percentage of money on Los Angeles: 61% (3,000 bets)

The Trends. Edge: Rams.

History: Rams have won 6 of the last 7 meetings.

Opening Line: Rams -7.

Opening Total: 49.

Weather: Sunny, 60 degrees. Light wind.

Week 17 NFL Pick: Rams 24, Cardinals 20
Cardinals +7 -108 (2 Units) – Hertiage — Push; $0
Under 45 (0 Units) — Incorrect; $0
Rams 31, Cardinals 24

Oakland Raiders (7-8) at Denver Broncos (6-9)
Line: Broncos by 4. Total: 41.
Sunday, Dec. 29, 4:25 PM

The Matchup. Edge: None.

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OAKLAND OFFENSE: The Raiders took 10 trips into Jacksonville territory two weeks ago, yet mustered just 16 points against the Jaguars’ pathetic defense in a very tilting loss in the final game in Oakland. The Raiders responded with a better showing against an underrated Charger stop unit despite missing Josh Jacobs and multiple starting offensive linemen.

The difference, besides the absent Jacobs and his blockers, was Hunter Renfrow. The rookie slot receiver had missed several weeks of action, and his injury coincided with the late-season collapse of the Raiders. Renfrow was a very reliable weapon for Derek Carr this past Sunday, and that should continue to be the case against a Denver defense that doesn’t cover slot receivers very well.

However, the Broncos have some mismatches in their advantage on this side of the ball as well. Their defensive front should be able to pressure Carr if multiple offensive linemen are out again. The Broncos also thrive against opposing ground attacks and tight ends, so Jacobs (if he plays) and Darren Waller have tough matchups.

DENVER OFFENSE: Drew Lock was outstanding against the Texans a few weeks ago, yet struggled mightily against the Chiefs the following Sunday. He was in between last week, albeit against Detroit’s miserable defense. More was expected from Lock, who needed Phillip Lindsay to dominate to come away with a victory against one of the worst teams in the NFL.

The problem with Lock was the offensive line, which was missing three starters against the Lions. Most quarterbacks will struggle in those circumstances, so it can’t be much of a surprise that Lock did. Lock will have a chance to rebound, but he’ll need at least two of his blockers to return from injury to take advantage of Oakland’s injury-ravaged secondary.

The Raiders are better against the run than the pass, so it wouldn’t be a surprise if Lindsay doesn’t have as much success this week, at least as a runner. He and Royce Freeman could thrive as receivers out of the backfield versus Oakland’s poor linebacking corps, but they won’t find much room on the ground, which was the case for Melvin Gordon last week.

RECAP: There’s a ton of money coming in on the Raiders, but this is sharp action betting this line down to -3. I’ve noticed that when the spread moves like this, it’s generally a good idea to go with the flow. The dropped line has seemingly created value on the Broncos, but the sharps are moving this spread for a reason.

I suppose professional bettors have recognized how much better the Raiders are with Renfrow. This makes a lot of sense, as the Raiders are arguably underrated at the moment. Meanwhile, the Broncos won’t be able to do much scoring if they’re down three offensive linemen again.

I’m going to place a TBA-unit pick on Oakland at the moment. That’ll change when I see the injury report because there are plenty of question marks for both teams.

THURSDAY THOUGHTS: This spread has hit +3. It’s unreal how much sharp action is coming on the Raiders, so I’ll side with the pros on this one.

FRIDAY UPDATE: The sharps bet the Raiders down to +3, but they haven’t bet them at +3. I’d be willing to bet the Raiders healthy if their offensive line is intact, save for Trent Brown. Unfortunately, that doesn’t look to be the case, with Richie Incognito and Gabe Jackson missing a combined three practices in the past two days.

SATURDAY NOTES: The Broncos are down three offensive linemen once again, which will be problematic for Drew Lock. The Raiders, meanwhile, could be missing two blockers, though Gabe Jackson is no longer on the injury report. Josh Jacobs will be out as well, which is a bummer, but I still like Oakland a bit.

SUNDAY MORNING NOTES: The sharps bet the Raiders earlier in the week, but the pro action stopped coming in; Denver is now -3.5. Given that the Raiders are down two offensive linemen and Josh Jacobs, I don’t think I’m going to bet this game, but we’ll see.

FINAL THOUGHTS: I’m not betting this game. Both teams have major offensive line woes. I don’t really see an edge for either side.

The Motivation. Edge: None.

The Spread. Edge: Broncos.

WalterFootball.com Calculated Spread: Broncos -5.
Las Vegas Hilton Advance Point Spread: Broncos -4.5.
Computer Model: Broncos -4.
DVOA Spread: Broncos -5.

The Vegas. Edge: Raiders.

The sharps are betting the Raiders heavily.

Percentage of money on Oakland: 59% (37,000 bets)

The Trends. Edge: Broncos.

History: Broncos have won 11 of the past 16 meetings.

Raiders are 3-12 ATS in Week 17 since 2003.

Raiders are 20-42 ATS after a win since 2009.

Opening Line: Broncos -4.5.

Opening Total: 41.5.

Weather: Sunny, 33 degrees. Light wind.

Week 17 NFL Pick: Broncos 24, Raiders 23
Raiders +4 (0 Units) — Correct; $0
Over 41 (0 Units) — Incorrect; $0
Broncos 16, Raiders 15

San Francisco 49ers (12-3) at Seattle Seahawks (11-4)
Line: 49ers by 3.5. Total: 45.5.
Sunday, Dec. 29, 8:20 PM

The Matchup. Edge: 49ers.

This week on ESPN, we’re going to have awful announcers calling the shots instead the great preseason homers like Kevin Reilly, Ron Wolfley and Don Tollefson, inept ESPN guys Emmitt, Herman Edwards, and aloof people like Dan Fouts and Jay Cutler. Here’s what it would sound like if these seven dudes (and some special guests) were calling this game:

Reilly: Welcome to the city of well, I don’t know wherever the hell we are because it doesn’t matter. Tonight’s game is irrelevant because the time is to vote on impeachment for Charles Davis and Herm Edwards! Let’s begin with you, Emmitt. Will we impeach Charles Davis and Herm Edwards? Yay or nay?

Emmitt: Benny, yay something people like say when he are happy, and nay the sound a horsie make when he need to bathroom, so I like yay better than nay but I do not understand why I need to make a choose?

Reilly: Emmitt, I’m glad to hear you’re on my side. It’s now 2-0 in favor of impeachment, counting my vote. What about you, Tolly?

Tollefson: Kevin, you said you would send me the addresses of your hot cousins if I voted yes, so I’ll vote yes because I’m running out of women in my house to cook and clean for me while naked. It’s amazing how many “accidents” happen with these women when they don’t cook and clean properly. Oops, I missed a spot. Oops, I just hit your head with a lead pipe! Oops, I need to find a place to bury your corpse now!

Reilly: Tolly, I knew you were a good person. That’s 3-0 in favor of impeachment! Jason, it’s your turn.

Jason Witten: Hello, my name is Jason Witten and I just came out of retirement. Guys, I just heard someone say something about turns. I find turns confusing. Sometimes when you drive, you make a right turn. That’s when you turn right, which is why it’s called a right turn. Then, there’s a left turn. And that’s because you turn left. Turning left is key because you have to turn left to make a left turn. But what happens when you make a straight turn? I get right turn and left turn, but straight turn is a tough one to figure out!

Reilly: I’m going to mark you down as present. So, we’re up 3-0 with one present. Fouts, what say you?

Fouts: And here’s what he means by present. Every Christmas, you get presents. Those are called Christmas presents because you get those presents on Christmas. Then, there are birthday presents you get on your birthday. That’s why they’re called birthday presents. Now, what happens if your birthday falls on Christmas? Do you get birthday presents on Christmas? Or do you get Christmas presents on your birthday?

Wolfley: DAN, IN MY PARALLEL UNIVERSE, IT’S IMPOSSIBLE FOR A CHILD TO BE BORN ON CHRISTMAS. IF A CHILD IS GOING TO BE BORN ON CHRISTMAS, WE SEND THE PREGNANT WOMAN TO THE UNDERWORLD SO THAT IT’S IMPOSSIBLE FOR HER TO GIVE BIRTH ON CHRISTMAS.

Reilly: You idiots, you’re not voting! It’s almost as if you don’t care about impeachment! Everyone should care because it’s so important! New daddy, please vote yes.

Cutler: Nah.

Reilly: New Daddy! Why not!?

Cutler: Too much effort.

Reilly: Well, you know what? It doesn’t matter. With Fouts and Wolfley being present as well, we won impeachment, 3-1. That makes it official. Herm and Charles Davis have been impeached!

Herm: THAT’S STUPID THAT’S DUMB! THAT’S IDIOTIC! THAT’S MORONIC! THAT’S RETA- WAIT, HERM ALMOST MADE A BOO-BOO! HERM ALMOST MADE A MISTAKE! HERM ALMOST GOT IN TROUBLE! HERM ALMOST GOT INTO HOT WATER! NOT COLD WATER! COLD WATER IS UNPLEASANT! BUT AT LEAST COLD WATER DOESN’T GET YOU IN TROUBLE! HOT WATER GETS YOU IN TROUBLE! BUT NOT JUST BECAUSE IT’S HOT! AND NOT JUST BECAUSE IT’S NOT COLD! AND NOT COLD IS THE OPPOSITE OF HOT! I MEAN IT’S THE SAME! THE OPPOSITE OF THE OPPOSITE, IN FACT! WHICH MEANS IT’S- which… uhh… umm…

Reilly: Look, Herm just admitted his crime! He’s guilty!

Charles Davis: Kevin, looks like you’re talking about crimes, Kevin. Let’s discuss some crimes, Kevin. How about arson, Kevin? That’s definitely a crime, Kevin. What about grand larceny, Kevin? Absolutely a crime, Kevin. Let’s discuss some assault, Kevin. That’s a crime, Kevin. Let’s delve into murder, Kevin. That’s a pretty serious one, Kevin! What about prostitution, Kevin? Certainly a crime, Kevin! How about you name a crime, Kevin? I’ll give you nine points if you can name a crime, Kevin!

Reilly: Bribery! Ha! Looks like you’re guilty of that, too! Mr. TV station owner, we’ve impeached Herm and Charles Davis! Time to remove them from their announcing positions!

Mr. TV Station Owner: Nah, I don’t think so.

Reilly: But we impeached Herm and Charles Davis! We spent so much time doing so! It’s the only thing we’ve discussed on this broadcast for the past two months!

Mr. TV Station Owner: Doesn’t matter. They’re staying on because the audience voted to have them as announcers. You can’t remove them from their jobs just because you don’t like them. That’s not how any of this works.

Reilly: WHAT!??! THIS IS RIDICULOUS! DON’T YOU WORRY, I’LL FIND A WAY TO GET RID OF HERM AND CHARLES DAVIS IF IT’S THE LAST THING I DO!!! We’ll be back after this!

SEATTLE OFFENSE: I’ve written this earlier, but Pete Carroll’s solemn look will always stick out to me. Carroll looked incredibly sullen in the wake of his team’s collapse against Arizona last week. Losing Chris Carson, Duane Brown and C.J. Prosise apparently made him realize that it’s going to be extremely difficult for his team to even make a deep run into the playoffs.

I don’t know how the Seahawks are going to block San Francisco’s front. Brown’s absence means that Nick Bosa has an extremely easy matchup. The same can be said for DeForest Buckner and Arik Armstead in the interior, as well as Dee Ford if he returns from injury. Russell Wilson will constantly be under pressure, and while he’ll be able to buy time in the pocket and scramble for some gains with his trademark mobility, he’ll also take several sacks.

Making matters worse, the 49ers may not have to worry about the Seahawks’ ground attack. Carson, Rashaad Penny and Prosise all being out means that someone named Travis Homer will play unless Marshawn Lynch is in great shape. It’s been quite the odyssey for Homer to reach the starting lineup, but I wouldn’t count on him doing well, and the same can be said for Lynch, who might not be 100 percent. That said, Lynch is at least a name the 49ers have to respect, which is better than nothing.

SAN FRANCISCO OFFENSE: The Seahawks’ chances of winning this game depend on their ability to place heavy pressure on Jimmy Garoppolo. The Rams were able to do this, and they sacked Garoppolo on six occasions as a result. Garoppolo held on to the ball way too long in the pocket last week, which is a recipe for disaster against a team with a strong pass rush.

That begs the question, can the Seahawks pressure him frequently? It really depends on Jadeveon Clowney’s availability. Clowney has been out the past couple of weeks, but perhaps he’ll return for this big game. If so, that’ll give Seattle a major edge in the trenches. If not, Garoppolo will have way more time to throw than he did last week.

That said, the 49ers have some mismatch edges on this side of the ball, especially if cornerback Shaq Griffin is out again. It’ll be tough for Seattle’s sub-par secondary to cover Emmanuel Sanders and Deebo Samuel. Meanwhile, the team has been poor versus tight ends all year, so George Kittle figures to have a dominant performance.

RECAP: Most people won’t agree with this opinion, given that 81 percent of the betting action is on the 49ers, but I think this spread is WAY off. I believe it’s an overreaction to what people saw when Arizona went into Seattle and won. The advance line was a pick ’em, and now the Seahawks are +3 with positive juice attached to that line. There are probably reasonable +3.5s available, which is absurd to me.

Everyone is so focused on the Seahawks’ injuries, as well as their loss to Arizona, but it’s commonplace for the Seahawks to lose to the Cardinals at home. Aside from last year’s slim 27-24 victory over a miserable Arizona squad, the Seahawks haven’t beaten the Cardinals at home since 2014! Besides, it’s not like they were fully focused for that game, given that this matchup is so much more important.

Here’s the important thing, however: While everyone is so focused on the Seahawks’ alleged demise, no one is paying attention to the 49ers. Everyone remembers them winning in New Orleans, thanks to some horrid officiating, and yet everyone is ignoring what the 49ers have done recently. In their previous two games, both of which were at home, they lost outright to the Falcons and nearly dropped a game to a Rams squad that was embarrassed by the Cowboys the previous week. The 49ers are not the same since their win over New Orleans, as they’ve suffered some injuries. Meanwhile, Garoppolo is not playing well for the most part. He has some flashes of brilliance at times, but as mentioned earlier, he’s holding the ball way too long in the pocket.

Given that, why do the 49ers warrant to be three-point road favorites? And why do they deserve more than 80 percent of the public action? They’re not playing well enough to be in a position like this, and the metrics agree. I personally made this line a pick ’em, matching what the advance spread was. DVOA, meanwhile, has these teams just two spots apart in their rankings, which would explain the Seattle -1 projected line.

Adding to everything I just wrote, the Seahawks have the motivational angle. Everyone has written them off, so they’ll be playing for respect. I especially love Wilson coming off a loss. Great quarterbacks often respond very well following a defeat, and Wilson is no different. He’s 19-7 against the spread in these situations as long as he’s not a double-digit favorite. As a dog off a loss, he’s 7-3 against the spread.

This is my favorite play of the week. I love the Seahawks, and I’m even considering them as my early January NFL Pick of the Month. I’d like to see Clowney, Griffin and some other Seattle players return from injury to go eight units on them, but I’ll be betting them heavily regardless.

THURSDAY THOUGHTS: I’m looking forward to seeing Thursday’s injury report. As I wrote earlier, this might end up being my January NFL Pick of the Month.

FRIDAY UPDATE: This spread is up to +3.5, which is just insane to me. There’s no reason to lock in this game yet, as the silly public could keep pounding San Francisco. I want to make the Seahawks my Pick of the Month, but three key players have yet to practice this week: Duane Brown, Mike Iupati and Quandree Diggs. I’d need at least two of those back to place eight units on Seattle, though I will say that Jadeveon Clowney sounds like he’ll be playing.

SATURDAY NOTES: Mike Iupati will play, but it doesn’t sound like Quandree Diggs will suit up after missing Friday’s practice. However, Jadeveon Clowney and Shaq Griffin are no longer on the injury report.

SUNDAY MORNING NOTES: The sharps bet the Seahawks at +3.5. We don’t have a clean +3.5 available at the moment, but I’ll be looking for one. This will probably be a five-unit pick, but injuries could change things.

FINAL THOUGHTS: I don’t think I can stomach an eight-unit bet after what happened this afternoon. I can’t remember a Week 17 where every team that needed to win actually won. Luckily, this is a normal game, and I have more faith in Seattle. The bad news is that Quandre Diggs is out, but I still love the Seahawks, especially at the +3.5 available at Bookmaker. This will be a five-unit play.

The Motivation. Edge: Seahawks.

Russell Wilson is coming off a loss, and the Seahawks will be playing for respect.

The Spread. Edge: Seahawks.

WalterFootball.com Calculated Spread: Pick.
Las Vegas Hilton Advance Point Spread: Pick.
Computer Model: Seahawks -3.
DVOA Spread: .

The Vegas. Edge: Seahawks.

Everyone loves the 49ers.

Percentage of money on San Francisco: 65% (15,000 bets)

The Trends. Edge: Seahawks.

History: Home Team has won 17 of the last 22 meetings (Seahawks won 11 of last 12).

Seahawks are 31-16 ATS in Week 11 or later since 2013.

Seahawks are 47-32 ATS as home favorites since 2007.

Russell Wilson is 19-8 ATS in night games.

Russell Wilson is 19-7 ATS after a loss as long as he’s not favored by -10 or more.

Opening Line: Pick.

Opening Total: 47.

Weather: .

Week 17 NFL Pick: Seahawks 20, 49ers 13
Seahawks +3.5 (5 Units) – Bookmaker — Incorrect; -$550
Seahaws +165 (0.5 Units) – BetUS — Incorrect; -$50
Under 45.5 (0 Units) — Incorrect; $0
49ers 26, Seahawks 21

week 17 NFL Picks – Early Games
Jets at Bills, Browns at Bengals, Packers at Lions, Chargers at Chiefs, Bears at Vikings, Dolphins at Patriots, Falcons at Buccaneers, Saints at Panthers

Prop/Teaser/Parlay Picks
A list of some of my favorite team/player prop picks this week
(Offense & defensive ROY picks to be counted whenever winners are announced.) Picks carried over on a week-to-week basis will be in black.

Moneyline plays: Redskins, Giants, Seahawks

2024 NFL Mock Draft - April 23

NFL Power Rankings - Feb. 22

Fantasy Football Rankings - Feb. 19

NFL Picks - Feb. 12

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Note: For legality purposes, this Web site does not promote or advocate gambling. This is solely for entertainment purposes only.

Last Week's NFL Picks Against The Spread (Week 18, 2023): 10-6 (-$415)
Last Week's 2-3 Unit NFL Picks (Week 18, 2023): 3-1 (+$460)
Last Week's 4-5 Unit NFL Picks (Week 18, 2023): 1-1 (-$40)
Last Week Over-Under (Week 18, 2023): 7-9 ($0)
Last Week's Prop/ML/Teaser/Parlay Picks (Week 18, 2023): -$15

2023 NFL Picks of the Month: 1-4, 20.0% (-$2,480)

2023 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 137-135-7, 50.4% (-$7,735)
2023 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 43-38-3, 53.1% (+$520)
2023 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 28-27-1, 50.9% (-$3,110)
2023 Season Over-Under: 139-128-3, 52.1% (+$100)
2023 Season Prop/ML/Teaser/Parlay Picks: -$1,630

1999 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 27-41-3 (39.7%)
2000 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 128-123-8 (51.0%)
2001 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 127-122-7 (51.0%)
2002 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 123-136-7 (47.5%)
2003 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 146-126-8 (53.7%)
2004 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 157-123-8 (56.1%)
2005 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 156-126-11 (55.3%)
2006 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 151-135-9 (52.8%)
2007 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 162-135-10, 54.5% (+$3,585)
2008 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 148-140-7, 51.4% (+$6,105)
2009 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 151-124-9, 54.9% (+$4,235)
2010 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 144-131-8, 52.4% (+$5,880)
2011 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 137-133-12, 50.7% (-$1,335)
2012 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 130-145-8, 47.3% (-$7,445)
2013 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 144-131-8, 52.4% (+$7,825)
2014 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 143-133-7, 51.8% (-$1,885)
2015 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 134-138-12, 49.3% (-$3,215)
2016 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 148-127-10, 53.8% (+$780)
2017 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 137-140-8, 49.5% (-$4,300)
2018 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 140-134-14, 51.3% (+$845)
2019 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 149-128-9, 53.6% (+$1,200)
2020 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 138-124-7, 52.7% (+$9,350)
2021 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 153-141-2, 51.9% (+$210)
2022 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 154-134-8, 53.5% (+$9,860)

2002 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 41-49-2 (45.6%)
2003 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 52-51-2 (50.5%)
2004 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 65-44-3 (59.6%)
2005 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 77-61-1 (55.8%)
2006 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 65-61-4 (51.6%)
2007 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 83-59-5, 58.5% (+$4,110)
2008 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 44-57-3, 43.6% (-$3,510)
2009 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 49-35-3, 58.3% (+$2,260)
2010 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 51-38-4, 57.3% (+$3,180)
2011 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 44-51-3, 46.3% (-$2,715)
2012 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 45-50-2, 47.4% (-$2,130)
2013 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 38-42, 47.5% (-$2,890)
2015 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 47-44-1, 51.6% (-$820)
2016 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 42-35-3, 54.5% (+$475)
2017 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 32-40-3, 43.8% (-$2,395)
2018 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 52-41-2, 55.9% (+$2,670)
2019 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 44-36-2, 55.0% (+$655)
2020 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 47-43-3, 52.2% (-$1,965)
2021 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 50-50, 50.0% (-$1,570)
2022 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 56-44-2, 56.0% (+$1,860)

2002 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 11-12 (47.8%)
2003 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 16-13-1 (55.2%)
2004 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 18-11 (62.1%)
2005 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 25-22-1 (53.2%)
2006 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 21-29-1 (42.0%)
2007 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 35-30-2, 53.8% (+$420)
2008 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 39-26-2, 60.0% (+$4,055)
2009 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 29-26, 52.7% (+$330)
2010 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 32-22, 59.3% (+$4,790)
2011 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 14-14, 50.0% (-$1,260)
2012 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 14-21, 40.0% (-$3,650)
2013 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 17-9-3, 65.4% (+$2,970)
2015 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 17-16-2, 51.5% (-$1,120)
2016 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 21-22-5, 48.8% (-$1,465)
2017 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 20-22-1, 47.6% (-$1,595)
2018 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 27-32-1, 45.8% (-$4,735)
2019 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 37-27-2, 57.8% (+$2,185)
2020 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 37-22-1, 62.7% (+$5,515)
2021 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 32-32-1, 50.0% (-$725)
2022 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 41-30-1, 57.8% (+$3,725)

2001 Season Over-Under: 3-2 (60.0%)
2002 Season Over-Under: 121-91-3 (57.1%)
2003 Season Over-Under: 126-132-2 (48.8%)
2004 Season Over-Under: 139-124-4 (52.9%)
2005 Season Over-Under: 117-145-4 (44.7%)
2006 Season Over-Under: 129-132-5 (49.4%)
2007 Season Over-Under: 136-145-3, 48.4% (-$1,900)
2008 Season Over-Under: 137-125-6, 52.3% (+$860)
2009 Season Over-Under: 128-135-4, 48.7% (-$3,195)
2010 Season Over-Under: 128-135-5, 48.7% (-$5)
2011 Season Over-Under: 131-131-5, 50.0% (+$135)
2012 Season Over-Under: 125-121-5, 50.8% (+$30)
2013 Season Over-Under: 132-130-5, 50.4% (-$340)
2015 Season Over-Under: 143-119-5, 54.6% ($0)
2016 Season Over-Under: 123-141-1, 46.6% (+$95)
2017 Season Over-Under: 136-139-2, 49.5% (+$640)
2018 Season Over-Under: 118-128-3, 48.0% (-$225)
2019 Season Over-Under: 126-133-4, 48.6% (-$50)
2020 Season Over-Under: 141-122-6, 53.6% ($0)
2021 Season Over-Under: 132-151-3, 46.6% ($0)
2022 Season Over-Under: 133-149-2, 47.2% (-$225)

2007 Season Prop/ML/Teaser/Parlay Picks: +$1,035
2008 Season Prop/ML/Teaser/Parlay Picks: +$1,775
2009 Season Prop/ML/Teaser/Parlay Picks: +$865
2010 Season Prop/ML/Teaser/Parlay Picks: -$200
2011 Season Prop/ML/Teaser/Parlay Picks: +$590
2012 Season Prop/ML/Teaser/Parlay Picks: -$1,685
2013 Season Prop/ML/Teaser/Parlay Picks: +$2,245
2015 Season Prop/ML/Teaser/Parlay Picks: -$855
2016 Season Prop/ML/Teaser/Parlay Picks: -$275
2017 Season Prop/ML/Teaser/Parlay Picks: -$510
2018 Season Prop/ML/Teaser/Parlay Picks: +$1,495
2019 Season Prop/ML/Teaser/Parlay Picks: -$1,715
2020 Season Prop/ML/Teaser/Parlay Picks: +$4,975
2021 Season Prop/ML/Teaser/Parlay Picks: +$3,455
2022 Season Prop/ML/Teaser/Parlay Picks: +$5,720

2006 NFL Picks of the Month: 3-3 (50%)
2007 NFL Picks of the Month: 3-3, 50.0% (-$400)
2008 NFL Picks of the Month: 6-1, 85.7% (+$3,720)
2009 NFL Picks of the Month: 3-2, 60.0% (+$640)
2010 NFL Picks of the Month: 2-4, 33.3% (-$1,810)
2011 NFL Picks of the Month: 5-2, 71.4% (+$1,870)
2012 NFL Picks of the Month: 3-2, 60.0% (+$560)
2013 NFL Picks of the Month: 6-0, 100% (+$3,900)
2014 NFL Picks of the Month: 2-4, 33.3% (-$1,350)
2015 NFL Picks of the Month: 3-3, 50.0% (-$100)
2016 NFL Picks of the Month: 5-1, 83.3% (+$2,780)
2017 NFL Picks of the Month: 4-2, 66.7% (+$1,040)
2018 NFL Picks of the Month: 4-3, 57.1% (-$640)
2019 NFL Picks of the Month: 3-3-1, 50.0% (-$625)
2020 NFL Picks of the Month: 3-2, 60.0% (+$665)
2021 NFL Picks of the Month: 2-3, 40.0% (-$920)
2022 NFL Picks of the Month: 3-4, 42.9% (-$1,615)

Career NFL Picks Against The Spread: 3,420-3,152-195, 52.1% (+$21,170)
Career 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 1,106-983-56 (52.9%)
Career 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 549-485-25 (53.1%)
Career Over-Under: 2,853-2,829-74 (50.3%)
Career Second-Half NFL Picks: 23-16-1 (59.0%)
Career NFL Picks of the Month: 46-34-1 (57.5t%)

My Team-by-Team ATS Record
This section shows how well I do when picking each team this year. The purpose is to see how well I read each team. Pushes are not displayed. Winning/losing streak in parentheses.

Cowboys: 8-9	Bears: 11-4	Bucs: 6-11	49ers: 10-7
Eagles: 7-7	Lions: 9-8	Falcons: 8-9	Cardinals: 8-9
Giants: 7-9	Packers: 5-12	Panthers: 8-9	Rams: 8-9
Redskins: 14-3	Vikings: 6-9	Saints: 10-7	Seahawks: 7-9

Bills: 9-7	Bengals: 12-5	Colts: 7-10	Broncos: 9-6
Dolphins: 6-11	Browns: 11-5	Jaguars: 13-4	Chargers: 8-9
Jets: 8-9	Ravens: 11-6	Texans: 5-12	Chiefs: 5-10
Patriots: 7-9	Steelers: 11-6	Titans: 9-8	Raiders: 6-9

Divisional: 50-35 (2011-22: 558-526)	2x Game Edge: 36-24 (2011-22: 363-361)	2x Motivation Edge: 32-36 (2011-22: 478-405)	2x Spread Edge: 41-40 (2011-22: 197-168)
2x Vegas Edge: 41-38 (2011-22: 407-406)	2x Trend Edge: 15-13 (2011-22: 306-279)	Double Edge: 17-13 (2011-22: 190-172)	Triple Edge: 1-1 (2011-22: 32-36)