NFL Picks Against the Spread: Week 2, 2020

Cincinnati Bengals (0-1) at Cleveland Browns (0-1)
Line: Browns by 6. Total: 43.5.
Thursday, Sept. 17, 8:20 PM


The Matchup. Edge: Bengals.

WEEK 1 RECAP: We had a nice start to the 2020 season, going 9-6-1, +$1,090 in Week 1. My two losses of four or more units were on the Buccaneers +3.5 and Colts -8. What do those teams have in common? Both have new quarterbacks!

I’m ashamed of myself for not considering the ramifications of new quarterbacks and first-time head coaches amid this pandemic offseason. Take a look at all of the teams that have new quarterbacks or first-time head coaches, and how they fared in Week 1:

Bengals, new quarterback: ATS push

Browns, first-time head coach: ATS loss

Buccaneers, new quarterback: ATS loss

Colts, new quarterback: ATS loss

Giants, first-time head coach: ATS loss

Panthers, first-time head coach: ATS loss

Patriots, new quarterback: ATS win

That’s a 1-5-1 record in Week 1, with the only win being from Cam Newton – who happens to be coached by Bill Belichick. I don’t know how long this is going to last, and I’m not saying all of these teams must be faded going forward, but I’m going to be cautious with them until they show signs of life, wagering half as much as I normally would.

My Week 2 NFL Picks will be posted all day Tuesday. Follow @walterfootball for updates.

By the way, if you want to support this site, check out my new book!



In this book, I talk about the top NFL Draft busts, and what would’ve happened had each team gone a different route. Also, I discuss why Roger Goodell has banned us from the NFL Combine.

CINCINNATI OFFENSE: Joe Burrow was the only new quarterback, besides Newton, not to lose against the spread. However, it’s not like he played very well. Burrow led a nice drive at the end, but had major difficulty at times. To quote Charlie Campbell, who covered the game in the NFL Game Recaps page, “Burrow struggled to see the field in the early going, taking a lot of sacks, getting rattled some by the Chargers pass rush, making some bad decisions, and missing some open receivers in the end zone.”

Burrow will have an easier matchup in this game. How easy, exactly, depends on the injury report. I loaded up big on the Ravens last week because the Browns were down several players in their back seven, including two of their top three cornerbacks. The Bengals have some nice receivers, including A.J. Green, who is finally healthy for the first time in years. Burrow might be able to exploit an injury-ravaged secondary with Green, Tyler Boyd and Auden Tate.

That said, I’m not fully convinced Burrow won’t be rattled by the Cleveland pass rush. The Browns still have some talented players on their defensive line, and it could be argued that the Bengals have the worst offensive front in the NFL.

CLEVELAND OFFENSE: Baker Mayfield was a mess against the Ravens. He played like Charlie described Burrow; he was rattled in the pocket and didn’t seem to see the field very well. He also had some major accuracy issues at times. Granted, he was going up against an elite Baltimore secondary, but it was still disappointing to see a lack of progression from Mayfield in his third year.

It goes without saying that this matchup will be easier for Mayfield, whose offensive line is better this year. The Bengals have some talented players up front, so if this were last year, Mayfield would undoubtedly see plenty of pressure. His pocket will be much cleaner in this contest.

Speaking of the Bengals’ defensive line, you may have noticed that the Chargers had great success running the ball in the second half with Joshua Kelley. This was not Kelley emerging as some superstar running back, or anything. Rather, the catalyst for this was when monstrous nose tackle D.J. Reader was carted off the field. Reader is one of the top run-stuffers in the NFL, so he was sorely missed. Reader’s presence will be needed to stop Nick Chubb and Kareem Hunt.

RECAP: It’s new quarterback versus first-time coach, so it’s a shame we don’t get an edge in that regard after I made such a big deal about it earlier! It’ll be interesting to see how Burrow and Kevin Stefanski deal with a short work week.

For me, the deciding factor in this game will be Reader’s availability. If Reader is out, the Bengals will be missing two defensive tackles, as Geno Atkins was also sidelined in Week 1. I don’t need to tell you how much of an advantage the Browns will have with their two star running backs if both Reader and Atkins aren’t available. Meanwhile, I wonder if the Browns will get any of their injured players back as well.

The injury report will be enormous, so I’ll have a more definitive pick when that’s released. For now, I’m going with zero units on the Browns, as the advance spread was -7.5. We have some value with Cleveland, but it may not matter based on the injury report.

THURSDAY THOUGHTS: I’m switching sides. The Browns still have their massive injury list, while the Bengals will be getting back D.J. Reader, who was carted off last week. Reader’s presence means the Browns won’t run nearly as well. This should give Cincinnati a fighting chance to keep this game close or even win outright. I may bet a couple of units on the Bengals.

FINAL THOUGHTS: The Browns have so many injuries. In addition to the ones they had last week – two of their top three cornerbacks, and linebacker Mack Wilson – they’re also down right tackle Jack Conklin and edge rusher Olivier Vernon. As mentioned earlier, the Bengals will be healthier with Reader returning, so I like them tonight for a couple of units. The sharps like them as well, as the smarter books have dropped this line to +5.5. You can still get +6 -115 at BetUS and Bovada. FanDuel, meanwhile, still has +6 -110 available.

Los Angeles Rams (1-0) at Philadelphia Eagles (0-1)
Line: Eagles by 2.5. Total: 46.
Sunday, Sept. 20, 1:00 PM


The Matchup. Edge: None.

My overrated-underrated feature was posted in this spot the past couple of years. I thought it would be better if there was less clutter on this page, so I set up a new NFL Overrated and Underrated Teams page that will be updated every Monday. I have overrated and underrated teams listed there, and some may shock you!

PHILADELPHIA OFFENSE: I felt like such an idiot when the Eagles were up 17-0 last week. The Redskins were my top play to open the season, and it looked like the game would be a blowout. Little did I know that the Eagles wouldn’t score at all after that, as Washington posted 27 unanswered points.

No one should’ve been surprised by this, as the Eagles’ offensive line was a train wreck. They were already missing two starters for the year – Brandon Brooks, Andre Dillard – and things only got worse when Lane Johnson was declared inactive prior to kickoff. The Redskins, as a result, accumulated eight sacks. Granted, Washington has one of the best defensive lines in football, but the same could be said of the Rams, who were able to pressure Dak Prescott quite well last Sunday night. I imagine Aaron Donald and company will give Carson Wentz similar difficulty.

The difference between the Redskin and Ram defenses, however, is the level of secondary play. Though Wentz was intercepted on multiple occasions, the Redskins don’t possess great talent in their defensive backfield, outside of Landon Collins. The Rams, on the other hand, have some great players in that area. Philadelphia’s receiving corps is rather lackluster, as DeSean Jackson doesn’t look like the same player we’re used to seeing, so unless Wentz is connecting with his tight ends for intermediate gains, it’ll be difficult for the Eagles to move the chains.

LOS ANGELES OFFENSE: The Rams know a thing or two about poor offensive line play. They had an elite front when they reached the Super Bowl in 2018, but things have changed since. The Rams lost several linemen and couldn’t block at all last year. Their issues don’t seem to be fixed just yet, as they had to evolve into a quick-passing offense against the Cowboys so Jared Goff wouldn’t get killed by DeMarcus Lawrence. This worked at times, but their drives often stalled after the Cowboys adjusted following the opening possession.

The Rams will have to utilize the same sort of attack against the Eagles, who have an even better defensive front than the Cowboys. Philadelphia’s pass rush made Dwayne Haskins uncomfortable last week, and Goff will endure a similar treatment if he’s asked to hold on to the ball for more than a couple of seconds. Meanwhile, Philadelphia’s run defense prevented Antonio Gibson from doing anything, so the upstart Malcolm Brown won’t have much success.

The one way the Rams can thrive against the Eagles is by attacking their linebackers. We just saw lackluster Redskins tight end Logan Thomas have a good game against one of the worst linebacking corps in the NFL, so Philadelphia will have trouble dealing with Tyler Higbee and Gerald Everett, both of whom are infinitely more talented than Thomas.

RECAP: The Eagles will have no chance if Lane Johnson is sidelined again. His presence will at least give the team a chance, so I’m eager to see what the injury report looks like. The worst-case scenario would be if Johnson is DNP/DNP/limited and then questionable.

If Johnson is out, I’ll be on the Rams, as Wentz could suffer eight or so sacks again. If, however, Johnson is able to return, the Eagles will look appealing. Everyone is way down on them following the Redskins loss – as evidenced by the line move and all of the public action on the visitor – but Johnson’s presence up front would put a Band-Aid on Philadelphia’s greatest problem.

Also, consider how much line value we’re getting. The advanced spread on this game was Philadelphia -3.5, and now the Rams are favored! I don’t think the Rams are a very good team, considering their own offensive line woes, so I’ll be tempted to bet the Eagles if we get some good injury news on Johnson and some of the other players who were knocked out of the Week 1 loss.

THURSDAY THOUGHTS: Lane Johnson is practicing, which is HUGE. His presence will be so important for blocking the Rams’ stellar defensive front.

SATURDAY NOTES: I’m going big on the Eagles. Lane Johnson is no longer on the injury report, and neither are Javon Hargrave and Miles Sanders. The Eagles will be much better in the trenches in this game, and I think they’ll be able to rattle Jared Goff. We’re getting great line value as well; the look-ahead line was Philadelphia -3.5, yet now it’s close to a pick ’em because of the Eagles’ loss to the Redskins. This Philadelphia squad will be much different this week, yet this spread isn’t priced as such.

FINAL THOUGHTS: It’s nice to see that there’s sharp money coming in on the Eagles. The public has pounded the Rams, yet this spread has risen in Philadelphia’s favor. I’m going to sell half a point to get better vig because two is not a key number.

Carolina Panthers (0-1) at Tampa Bay Buccaneers (0-1)
Line: Buccaneers by 8. Total: 47.5.
Sunday, Sept. 20, 1:00 PM


The Matchup. Edge: Buccaneers.

VEGAS UPDATE: I’ll be posting how the Vegas sportsbooks have done the previous week in this spot. The highest-bet sides were 44-40-2 last season.

Here are the teams getting the most bets last week:

Steelers -6

Seahawks -2

Eagles -6

Cowboys -3

Titans -1

Three of the five highest-bet sides. I couldn’t believe the Steelers got there until I considered the Giants’ new coaching situation.

Here are the teams getting the most bets this week:

Chiefs -9

49ers -7

Ravens -7

Raiders -6

Bills -5.5

Rams -1.5

Steelers -7

Vikings +3

Packers -6

I don’t think I can ever recall anything like this. There are nine sides currently getting 75 percent or more of the action. I guess it’s because there are so many road favorites, but hot damn! The public might be in for a beating this week.

TAMPA BAY OFFENSE: Tom Brady looked awful in his Buccaneers’ debut. If you didn’t watch the game, I’m not exaggerating. There was a natural miscommunication with his new receivers, which was to be expected, but he threw some awful, weak-armed floaters, including the pick-six he gift-wrapped for Janoris Jenkins.

I think it’s foolish to write off Brady right now. It’s only one game, and he’s the greatest quarterback of all time. Plus, he could always eat some fungus to improve his arm strength by 15 points. I think it’s correct to cautiously downgrade him and the Buccaneers at the moment, though we’ll learn much more from this matchup because the Panthers have an atrocious secondary. Brady, in his prime, would be able to dissect Carolina while blindfolded, so we’ll see how this 43-year-old version of Brady fares.

Either way, the Buccaneers should be able to run on the Panthers. Carolina had the worst run defense in the NFL last year, and that was with Luke Kuechly. Ronald Jones looked surprisingly spry in the opener, so he could have a nice output.

CAROLINA OFFENSE: The Buccaneers have a very underrated defense that performed well in the opener. Considering the pick-six, Tampa surrendered “only” 27 points to the Saints, which is an impressive feat considering how many talented weapons Drew Brees has at his disposal.

The best thing the Buccaneers do is clamp down on the run. They do this extremely well, even against the best running backs in the NFL. But don’t take my word for it; just look at the stats. In two meetings against the Panthers last year, the Buccaneers restricted Christian McCaffrey to just 68 rushing yards on 38 carries. That’s it! Tampa continued to dominate in this regard in the opener, clamping down on Alvin Kamara quite well.

Tampa Bay can also bring some heat with its stellar defensive line, so Teddy Bridgewater may have trouble staying upright in this game. He’ll have some success because he has a great supporting cast at his disposal, but Carolina’s drives should be limited.

RECAP: This is another instance where we have new quarterback/coach versus new quarterback/coach. It’s almost like my previous analysis was all for naught!

When it comes down to it, I trust Brady over Bridgewater and Matt Rhule. Doing so would’ve been a no-brainer even a year ago, but Brady was truly awful last week. There is a non-zero chance that he’s just completely done, so I can’t advise betting on the Buccaneers at this high spread. That said, I’m picking them to cover, as I’m not a believer in the Panthers at all.

THURSDAY THOUGHTS: It appears as though Chris Godwin won’t play because of a concussion, which is why the spread has dropped a half point. This doesn’t bother me unless Mike Evans is also unavailable.

SATURDAY NOTES: The Panthers have a huge injury no one’s talking about, as Kawann Short will be sidelined this week. Short is one of the top defensive tackles in the NFL, so he’ll be missed. Yetur Gross-Matos is also out, so the Panthers will be missing two talented players on their defensive line. I think Tampa is worth a unit play.

FINAL THOUGHTS: There’s been a bit of sharp money coming in on the Panthers. This is surprising because Carolina is missing two key players on the defensive line. I’m sticking with one unit on the Buccaneers, and I’ll wager on the -8.5 -105 at Bovada.

Denver Broncos (0-1) at Pittsburgh Steelers (1-0)
Line: Steelers by 7. Total: 41.
Sunday, Sept. 20, 1:00 PM


The Matchup. Edge: Broncos.

HATE MAIL: I will be posting hate mail here. We got some this week that didn’t concern my picks:



Football is my forte, obviously, but I’m sure you guys didn’t know that I also specialize in writing about garbage. My garbage takes are terrific!

Here’s someone who doesn’t understand logic:



I was writing about how politics in NFL will diminish ratings and hurt my business. That’s why I mentioned it; not because I wanted to talk about politics. I want all political discussion gone from sports. If that makes me brave, so be it.

This dude got super-duper angry:



Oh no, not the “F” bomb. Now I won’t be able to sleep at night. Not that I’d be sleeping anyway as a result of being overly excited after being called impressive. I’ve been hoping someone would call me impressive all these years, and now it has finally happened!

PITTSBURGH OFFENSE: The Steelers had to feel great about their Monday night win until the very end. That’s when right tackle Zach Banner was carted into the locker room with a devastating leg injury. Banner performed well in his 2020 debut, so it’s a shame he got hurt.

If Banner is out, the Steelers may have some severe issues on their offensive line because David DeCastro missed the opener as well. Teams can survive with one injury to the offensive line, but not two or more, as the Eagles learned against the Redskins. If Pittsburgh is missing both DeCastro and Banner, it’ll have extreme difficulty blocking a Denver defensive front that still has plenty of talent despite Ambassador Von Miller’s absence.

This will obviously be problematic for Ben Roethlisberger, who may not be 100 percent quite yet. Roethlisberger beat the Giants consistently with crossing routes, but a veteran coaching staff, particularly a defensive one, should be able to scheme against that. Meanwhile, I don’t expect the Steelers to get nearly as much out of the impressive Benny Snell this week after the Broncos clamped down on Derrick Henry quite well.

DENVER OFFENSE: Drew Lock was an enigma heading into the season for me, and he continues to be one. He looked very good on some drives against the Titans, but then he would revert into a skittish quarterback who would throw off his back foot or sail passes over his receivers’ heads in the end zone. I shouldn’t be surprised by this because Lock is so young, but it was both frustrating and exciting to watch.

Lock obviously has a very difficult task ahead of him in this contest, as the Steelers boast one of the top defenses in the NFL. Their front seven is ridiculous, and they have Minkah Fitzpatrick in the secondary to force some turnovers. Denver’s offensive line is decent, but T.J. Watt and Bud Dupree will still have success getting to Lock, which could lead to some turnovers on those back-footed passes.

The Broncos will need all hands on deck to combat the Pittsburgh defense, which would entail Courtland Sutton returning from injury. It seemed like Sutton was close to playing Monday night, so there’s a decent chance he’ll be available. If so, Lock will have a chance to move the chains on some drives like another second-year quarterback managed to do this past Monday.

RECAP: I can’t say I’m surprised that the public is pounding the Steelers after what transpired Monday night. However, I think this is a mistake if the Steelers are missing two offensive linemen. Their offense simply won’t be the same, and Denver is more than capable of exploiting this weakness, even without Miller.

All bets will be off if the Steelers get either DeCastro or Banner back, but I’ll be betting multiple units on the Broncos otherwise. Not only do we have the injury and Vegas edges on our side, we also have some nice spread value, as the advanced line on this game was Pittsburgh -6.

THURSDAY THOUGHTS: I’m eager to see what the Steelers’ injury report looks like because Denver will look very appealing if two blockers are missing. A.J. Bouye is out for Denver, but I think that’s fine.

SATURDAY NOTES: The Steelers will be without two starting offensive linemen, as both David DeCastro and Zach Banner will be sidelined. Not only that, but they’ll also be missing top reserve lineman Stefen Wisniewski. Being very thin up front versus Denver’s stout front will hurt, so I like the Broncos quite a bit. The sharps do as well.

FINAL THOUGHTS: I was pleased to see plenty of smart money coming in on the Broncos – except that the +7s are mostly gone! Luckily, Bovada has +7 -115 still available. Paying -115 juice to get the No. 2 key number (7) is a no-brainer.

Atlanta Falcons (0-1) at Dallas Cowboys (0-1)
Line: Cowboys by 3. Total: 53.5.
Sunday, Sept. 20, 1:00 PM


The Matchup. Edge: TBA.

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DALLAS OFFENSE: NFL Network analyst Steve Smith proclaimed that this Cowboys team would be just as good as the one that dominated the 90s, thanks to Troy Aikman, Emmitt Smith and Michael Irvin. So far, not good. The Cowboys managed to score just 17 points in a loss in the opener. That certainly didn’t remind me of those Aikman-Emmitt-Irvin teams!

I’m not a big believer in Dak Prescott, but he should thrive in this contest. The Falcons have one of the worst secondaries in the NFL, and it was as bad as advertised in the 2020 opener. In fact, Russell Wilson didn’t misfire on a single pass in the first 26 minutes! Granted, Prescott is no Wilson, but he has some mega talents at receiver who should be able to exploit Atlanta’s atrocious defense.

The Falcons happen to be better against the run than the pass, and not just by default. However, they showed a weakness at stopping receiving backs, as Chris Carson racked up plenty of receiving yards in Week 1. Ezekiel Elliott, who will continue to be more involved in the passing game, could have a great afternoon in that regard.

ATLANTA OFFENSE: I was hoping to see an improved Falcons’ offensive line last week, as better blocking was one of the catalysts that helped the team finish with a 6-2 record down the stretch in 2019. The offensive line didn’t play all that well, however, as Matt Ryan saw some pressure from one of the worst pass rushes in the NFL.

The Cowboys don’t get to the quarterback all that well either, but they at least have one mega talent in DeMarcus Lawrence, who figures to have a strong performance. Still, it won’t be enough to rattle Ryan, who will connect early and often to his talented receivers. The Cowboys also have an abysmal secondary, so Julio Jones and Calvin Ridley will once again post great numbers.

Dallas is also weaker against the run, thanks to yet another injury from Leighton Vander Esch (now you see why one NFL team removed him from its draft board ahead of the 2018 NFL Draft.) If Malcolm Brown looked good against the Cowboys, imagine what Todd Gurley will do, albeit on a limited workload.

RECAP: I wish we were still getting +7, which was the advance spread. This line opened +7, but the sharps have destroyed it, betting it all the way down to +4.5.

I’ve noticed over the years that if a spread falls like this, it’s often still correct to bet the same side as the sharps, even with all of the lost value. I tracked this in 2018 and 2019, and found that you would be 19-14 against the spread doing so on a move like this. That’s nothing to write home about, but it just goes to show that professional bettors know what they’re doing if they’re convinced enough on one side to move a line 2.5 points.

I think I’ll be betting the Falcons, assuming Sean Lee is sidelined. If Lee is out, that means the Cowboys will be down two linebackers against one of the better quarterbacks in the NFL. Even still, it’s nice to get the superior signal-caller at +4.5, even if we had a chance to do so at +7.

THURSDAY THOUGHTS: The Cowboys will be down two linebackers against the Falcons, which spells trouble because Matt Ryan should be able to exploit this weakness.

SATURDAY NOTES: There’s some major injury news for the Cowboys, and I’m not talking about how they’re missing two starting linebackers or All-Pro right tackle La’el Collins. Left tackle Tyron Smith failed to practice all week, and he’s questionable with a neck injury. Smith didn’t even play all that well in the opener, but his absence would be enormous for the Falcons, who would be able to pressure and disrupt Dak Prescott. This spread has continued to fall, as tons of smart money has poured in on Atlanta. I’m willing to increase my wager.

FINAL THOUGHTS: The sharps continue to pound the Falcons. They haven’t stopped – even at +3. If you want a +3 in most sportsbooks, you need to pay high vig. This is because Tyron Smith is yet another Dallas player who will be sidelined. I still love the Falcons. Luckily, Bovada is a bit slow to update its lines, so +3 -110 is still available at that sportsbook.

San Francisco 49ers (0-1) at New York Jets (0-1)
Line: 49ers by 7. Total: 41.5.
Sunday, Sept. 20, 1:00 PM


The Matchup. Edge: 49ers.

NFL Opinion Piece: Go here to read about what the NFL can do to fix its Worst NFL TV Ratings in 10 Years. As a warning, this could be triggering to you if you have sand-in-the-vag syndrome (i.e. if you’re a blue checkmark on Twitter.)

NEW YORK OFFENSE: I’d like to begin with the Jets because Sam Darnold was so terrible in the opener. Granted, he was going against one of the best defenses in the NFL, but he looked lost. He was skittish in the pocket and showed some poor accuracy. He appears to be getting worse under Adam Gase, which begs the question, why is Gase still the head coach of the Jets?

If you think Darnold will have just as much difficulty against the 49ers as he did against the Bills, I can’t say I fully agree. There’s a chance Darnold could completely implode, but San Francisco’s defense is not the same as it was last year, which was one of the reasons I advocated strongly against drafting the unit in fantasy this summer (aside from the fact that picking defenses early is a dumb strategy.) DeForest Buckner is one of the top players in the NFL, let alone at his defensive tackle position, and he’s no longer with the team. This had a profound impact on the first game, as Kyler Murray was able to put together a terrific performance.

Darnold is no Murray, but perhaps he’ll be able to rebound. His offensive line still has some major holes, but Buckner’s absence means the blocking unit won’t be completely overwhelmed. I don’t trust the 49ers’ secondary, so Darnold might have some success passing.

SAN FRANCISCO OFFENSE: Jimmy Garoppolo also struggled mightily last week, albeit against a far weaker defense than Darnold battled. Garoppolo continued to hold the ball way too long in the pocket, which was a major problem for him in 2019. Like Darnold, he has not progressed at all, and he may even be worse than he was last year.

Garoppolo will have a great chance to improve upon his 2020 debut if the Jets continue to miss plenty of personnel in their linebacking corps. Avery Williamson was out last week, which was huge because C.J. Mosley opted out of the season. Josh Allen took full advantage of this when he wasn’t fumbling, and I imagine that Kyle Shanahan is already scheming against it. Thus, if George Kittle is healthy, I anticipate him having a great performance.

That said, the 49ers won’t be clicking on all cylinders because they won’t be able to run very well. While the Jets struggle against the pass, they happen to thrive against the run, so they should be able to bottle up Raheem Mostert.

RECAP: I think this spread is too high. The 49ers were -6 on the advance line, and they should be -5.5 per my calculations. DVOA is even less bullish on them, projecting that this spread should be -3! Yet, San Francisco is favored by a touchdown and happens to be receiving tons of public action.

As much as it sickens me to do this, I’m going with the slight value and selecting the Jets. New York was atrocious in the opener, yet still lost by only 10 points on the road. The 49ers are no longer good enough to be favored by this many points away from home, especially in an early game on the East Coast, so I think the Jets might be able to cover this large spread.

Whether I bet the Jets or not depends on the injury report. Williamson returning from injury would be huge, as it would take away the greatest advantage the 49ers possess at the moment. In fact, if Williamson is out, I may consider switching sides based on other things.

THURSDAY THOUGHTS: I may change my pick by Saturday. The Jets should probably be on one of those “do not bet” lists that we get each year. Adam Gase appears to have broken them.

SATURDAY NOTES: The 49ers will be without George Kittle and perhaps Dee Ford, but I don’t think it matters against the Jets. New York may get Avery Williamson back from injury, but Jamison Crowder, Le’Veon Bell and Denzel Mims are all sidelined. Who is Sam Darnold going to throw to? San Francisco’s secondary should have an easy time in this game. I’m switching sides, but I’m not betting this game.

FINAL THOUGHTS: I’ve seen some known media people touting the Jets +7 on Twitter. I don’t know why you’d bet the worst team in the NFL. It’s been a losing proposition over the years, as I’ve learned. Then again, the 49ers aren’t very appealing either because they’re so banged up. The sharps haven’t touched this game, which is not surprising.

Buffalo Bills (1-0) at Miami Dolphins (0-1)
Line: Bills by 6. Total: 42.
Sunday, Sept. 20, 1:00 PM


The Matchup. Edge: Bills.

College Football Opinion Piece: This isn’t mine because I didn’t do too much watching of college football this weekend (the games weren’t exciting, and my wife and I had plans anyway.) However, Charlie posted his 2021 NFL Mock Draft video:



BUFFALO OFFENSE: Josh Allen is the key to the Bills’ success this year. Buffalo is built to win the Super Bowl, but Allen must continue to improve and avoid making stupid mistakes. He played very well in the opener at times, but three crucial blunders – a pair of fumbles and an overthrow to a wide-open receiver into the end zone – may have cost him against superior competition. Luckily for Allen, he was battling the Jets, so it didn’t matter.

Allen doesn’t have a tough matchup in this game either, though the Dolphins will put forth more resistance than the Jets did, thanks to their talented cornerbacks. However, Miami has a weak linebacking corps that had trouble defending Cam Newton’s scrambles last week. Allen figures to enjoy similar success while picking up yardage on the ground.

While Stefon Diggs and John Brown will face tough coverage, the running backs will not. Allen utilized both of his running backs extensively last week against a beat-up Jets linebacking corps, so Devin Singletary and Zack Moss will likely have similar outputs in this contest.

MIAMI OFFENSE: The Bills have one of the best defenses in the NFL, so it shouldn’t have been any sort of surprise that they looked especially dominant last week when they throttled the Jets, making Sam Darnold look like a meek rookie again. Ryan Fitzpatrick might be better than Darnold at the moment – I can’t believe I just wrote that – but he won’t stand much of a chance against Buffalo either, especially if he doesn’t have his full supporting cast.

Fitzpatrick suffered a big loss in Week 1 when DeVante Parker left the game. Parker was a huge reason why Fitzpatrick enjoyed some success down the stretch in 2019. If he can’t play, that’ll only make life easier for one of the best secondaries in the NFL. The Bills will smother Preston Williams and the Miami wideouts, while Fitzpatrick will somehow have to deal with a talented defensive front behind his pedestrian blocking unit.

The Dolphins won’t run very well either. Jordan Howard looked sluggish in the opener, while Matt Breida barely got any work for some reason. The Dolphins featured Myles Gaskin, which is not a winning strategy. The Bills will laugh at this as they smother Gaskin after gains of two yards.

RECAP: It sucks that we lost line value. The Bills were -3.5 on the advance spread, but now this line has popped up to -5.5, and understandably so. That said, this spread may still be too low because the computer model believes Buffalo should be -11!

I hate going against big advance line moves and tons of Vegas betting action, but I’m inclined to pick the Bills, assuming Parker is out of the lineup. If Parker returns, I may re-think this pick as far as my ATS selection is concerned, but I don’t think the Dolphins stand much of a chance without their talented receiver.

THURSDAY THOUGHTS: The only thing that could save the Dolphins is the weather, as it’s supposed to be 90 and humid Sunday. With that in mind, as well as the lopsided betting action and advance line move, I’m switching to Miami.

SATURDAY NOTES: The Bills haven’t updated the injury report chart on their Web site since Wednesday, but I was able to find that their top two linebackers, Matt Milano and Tremaine Edmunds, will both be sidelined. The Dolphins will be able to target the middle of the field, so they’ll move the chains more effectively than they’d normally be able to. I already liked the Dolphins because of the weather, the advance line move and the betting action, so I’ll bet three units on them.

FINAL THOUGHTS: I was hoping to find a decent +6 number, and we have one at BetUS! This is exciting, as six is the third-most-important key number in the NFL. The sharps haven’t touched this game, but I like the Dolphins for all of the reasons I mentioned in the Saturday notes.

Minnesota Vikings (0-1) at Indianapolis Colts (0-1)
Line: Colts by 3. Total: 49.
Sunday, Sept. 20, 1:00 PM


The Matchup. Edge: Vikings.

If you’ve followed this site for a while, you might remember that I like to respond to my spam mails. It all started seven years ago, when a man named Jon Wire from the “United Bank of Africoan” promised me an ATM card of some sort, so I responded as a man named Mister Compassion Chuck Norris, who was raised by wolves. The following season, I received e-mails from Richard Held and Loon Bruce, who told me I won a Facebook Award, which comes with a “lump sum pay out of (750,000.00 GBP).” Pretending to be Matthew Millen Kim, I sent out my application and fake money.

I’ve been messing around with spammers ever since, pretending to be Harvey Weinstein, Tom Brady, Ramsay Bolton and Walter White. I had plenty of Spam Mails this year, so check them out if you want to see me screw with spammers. I’ll have new ones every week this year!

INDIANAPOLIS OFFENSE: Philip Rivers might get some blame for the shockingly unexpected and disappointing loss to the Jaguars. He played well for most of the game, but made a couple of horrid throws on interceptions, which basically gave the game to Jacksonville.

Rivers will have a chance to make amends in this contest, as the Vikings struggled mightily to stop the pass last week. Granted, they were battling Aaron Rodgers, but this was a huge problem for the team last year that appears to be even worse now. The Minnesota cornerbacks are horrible, yet the front office couldn’t do anything about this because of Kirk Cousins’ albatross of a contract. The Vikings will continue to defend the pass poorly, as T.Y. Hilton and the upstart Parris Campbell will thrive.

The Vikings won’t have to worry about the run very much because they’re better in that regard. That said, the Colts utilize their running backs very creatively as receivers out of the backfield, so Jonathan Taylor and Nyheim Hines should do well as receivers out of the backfield.

MINNESOTA OFFENSE: Cousins didn’t do that well in the opener against the Packers, as the majority of his stats came in garbage time. He had trouble maintaining drives in the opening half despite battling a defense that shouldn’t be very good.

Cousins will rebound if Week 1 is any indication, as Garnder Minshew was near-perfect as a passer in Week 1. That said, the Colts have so much talent that they almost have to bounce back from their dismal performance. DeForest Buckner and company could rattle Cousins in the pocket, and it’s not like Indianapolis’ questionable secondary has to worry about any receivers not named Adam Thielen. Why Olabisi Johnson is playing ahead of Justin Jefferson, I have no idea.

The Vikings, of course, will attempt to establish Dalvin Cook, something they couldn’t do in the opener. The Colts have a stellar front seven, so this might be a difficult task for Minnesota once again.

RECAP: I really want to bet the Colts. In fact, when I first saw this spread, I planned on wagering multiple units on them. I still think they’re one of the best teams in the NFL, and I was shocked to see so much public action on the Vikings. Minnesota is a heavily backed public dog, which makes Indianapolis incredibly appealing because fading heavily backed public dogs is often a winning strategy.

I had this sentiment before I investigated how first-year coaches and new quarterbacks performed. If you missed it earlier, first-year coaches and new quarterbacks were 1-5-1 against the spread in Week 1, which includes Rivers’ embarrassing straight-up defeat at Jacksonville. This is a small sample size, and I’m not sure how long this dynamic will hold, but it appears as though avoiding large wagers on these teams should be the plan at the moment.

I’m still going to pick the Colts for office pool purposes, but because Rivers is a new quarterback, I’m going to refrain from betting the Colts.

THURSDAY THOUGHTS: It’s crazy how much betting action is coming in on the Vikings, considering that they are underdogs. I’m going to put a couple of units on Indianapolis, new quarterback be damned.

SATURDAY NOTES: There’s a new injury for each side in this game. The Vikings will be without starting guard Pat Elflein, while the Colts may not have Justin Houston, who missed practice all week. That’s effectively a draw, so I still like the Colts a bit.

FINAL THOUGHTS: Rock Ya-Sin is a late scratch for the Colts with some sort of mysterious illness. Is it Fauxvid-19? Apparently not, as it’s some sort of stomach bug. A major loss for the Coronabros. The sharps have been pounding the Colts, forcing some sportsbooks to move to -3.5. I’m not crazy about paying high juice on the Colts, so I’ll drop to one unit.

Detroit Lions (0-1) at Green Bay Packers (1-0)
Line: Packers by 6. Total: 50.5.
Sunday, Sept. 20, 1:00 PM


The Matchup. Edge: Packers.

Video of the Week: I’m glad real football is back. I say “real” football because we had stupid Madden sims during the fake pandemic. I played some free DraftKings contests, but barely won anything. One day, I paid up for Christian McCaffrey, only to see him rush for 20 yards and catch no passes. That was it for me.

Facebook friend Chris W. sent me this link. I can’t embed it because it’s on Twitch, but it’s a hilarious clip of what went on during these bogus Madden sims.

GREEN BAY OFFENSE: I have to credit Jacob Camenker for his thesis on Aaron Rodgers this year. He predicted that Rodgers would be more motivated than ever based on what his front office did in the 2020 NFL Draft. Rodgers looked at his true peak against the Vikings. He tore Minnesota’s secondary to shreds in a very easy blowout victory despite being an underdog.

If Rodgers had that much success against the Vikings, I can’t wait to see what he’ll do to the Lions. Detroit, of course, blew a 23-6 fourth-quarter lead to the Bears. For those who don’t know why that happened, the Lions lost Jamie Collins and their top three cornerbacks to injury. Jeff Okudah was already out, and then Desmond Trufant and Justin Coleman suffered injuries during the game. We don’t know the statuses of Okudah and Trufant at the moment, but Coleman has already been placed on injured reserve.

If the Lions are missing one of Okudah or Trufant, they’ll stand no chance at defending Rodgers, especially when considering how lackluster their pass rush is outside of Trey Flowers. They took some hits to their defensive line in free agency this offseason, and it showed in the opener.

DETROIT OFFENSE: I didn’t bet the Lions last week because it was unclear how Matthew Stafford would perform with his ailing back. Stafford looked good in the opener, as he wasn’t to blame for the 23-6 collapse, especially when considering that he put the game-winning touchdown into D’Andre Swift’s hands at the very end.

Stafford’s ability to beat the Packers will depend on who’s available. Both Kenny Golladay and Halapouli Vaitai were out against the Bears, and Detroit’s offense suffered a bit because of that. There’s a chance at least one of those players returns, which would be a big boon for the Lions.

Otherwise, the Packers figure to do well against the Lions. Green Bay is weakest against the run, but I don’t think the Lions can fully take advantage of that because the coaching staff is insisting on feeding the ball to Adrian Peterson and Kerryon Johnson instead of Swift.

RECAP: Assuming the Lions are down one of their other cornerbacks, the Packers are one of my top plays of the week. The Lions, without multiple cornerbacks, won’t stand a chance of stopping Rodgers, who is absolutely on fire right now.

Besides, this spread isn’t as large as it should be. My calculated number is Green Bay -8, and the spread is even half a point shy of the advance line, which was -6. I’m not sure why it went down half a point, but I’ll take it.

THURSDAY THOUGHTS: It’s going to be imperative to see Desmond Trufant out because it’s sounds like Jeff Okudah will play. We need two Detroit cornerbacks to be sidelined.

SATURDAY NOTES: I was eager to see the injury report, and it’s worse for the Lions than I imagined. They’re down two of their top three cornerbacks as expected, as both Desmond Trufant and Justin Coleman will both be sidelined. That’s not all, however, as the Lions will also be missing two starting offensive linemen, in all likelihood! Guard Joe Dahl has been ruled out, while right tackle Halapouli Vaitai is questionable after missing every practice this week. The Packers are my top play of the week.

FINAL THOUGHTS: Halapouli Vaitai is out! This means the Lions are missing two starting offensive linemen and two cornerbacks against the Packers. Good luck! Green Bay continues to be my top play of the week. Unfortunately, this spread has risen to -6.5 or even -7 in some books, as there’s been no pushback from the sharps on Detroit. I can’t find a good -6 anywhere, so -6.5 -110 is the play at FanDuel.

New York Giants (0-1) at Chicago Bears (1-0)
Line: Bears by 4.5. Total: 42.5.
Sunday, Sept. 20, 1:00 PM


The Matchup. Edge: None.

The 2020 Adventures of Tom Brady’s Haircuts are underway!



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NEW YORK OFFENSE: The Giants lost to the Steelers on Monday night, but they should feel proud about how they performed. They went toe to toe with one of the top teams in the NFL, and if it wasn’t for some bad luck, they would’ve had a chance to prevail. Daniel Jones looked good on most occasions, though he killed his team when he didn’t see T.J. Watt dropping into coverage, as Watt as able to snatch an interception.

Jones has another difficult matchup, but Chicago’s defense isn’t as good as Pittsburgh’s. The Bears had the top defense in the NFL a couple of years ago, but some departures have hurt them, including Bryce Callahan, Nick Kwiatkoski and Eddie Goldman. The former two being gone will help Jones attack the opposition, as he’ll be able to connect with Darius Slayton, who is quickly becoming a great receiver, and Evan Engram, who will pick up where T.J. Hockenson left off last week.

Meanwhile, Goldman’s absence is huge. Thirty-five-year-old Adrian Peterson did well against the Bears last week, which is saying a lot. Goldman is one of the premier run-stuffers in the NFL, so it’s no surprise that the Bears have regressed against ground attacks without him. Saquon Barkley was bottled up in the opener, so I like his chances of rebounding.

CHICAGO OFFENSE: I still can’t believe Mitchell Trubisky is starting over Nick Foles, though now that I think about it, perhaps Foles struggled in training camp because he’s one of these new quarterbacks. Maybe the Bears know what they’re doing by starting Trubisky over him. Nah…

Trubisky was terrible for three quarters against the Lions. His accuracy was woeful, especially on crucial third and fourth downs. Things changed late in the game when the Lions were down their top three cornerbacks. Suddenly, connecting with Allen Robinson and Anthony Miller became so much easier for Trubisky.

However, unless the Giants also suffer injuries to their corners, I can’t see Trubisky repeating what he did against the Lions. This may have been possible last year when the Giants had one of the worst pass defenses in the NFL, but they’ve improved their secondary this offseason. They’re not great against the pass, or anything, but they’re decent enough to stay competitive.

RECAP: This is very frustrating. Almost everything tells me the Giants should be a high-unit play. The Bears are being completely overrated based on that bogus comeback against the Giants. New York is better team and should win this game. In fact, the Giants nearly won at Chicago last year, and yet they are now better than they were in 2019, while Chicago is worse.

People not truly understanding how good these teams are compared to one another is causing the spread to be out of whack. I think this line should be pick ’em, while DVOA says Chicago -2.5 is correct. Either way, the Giants provide great value at +4.5 or +5. This line was once +5.5, but this is one of those falling, sharp action spreads I was talking about.

I may have even been convinced to make this my Pick of the Month at +6. Unfortunately, I’m scared to pull the trigger because the Giants have a first-time head coach. It sucks, but Joe Judge’s inexperience could prevent the Giants from pulling the upset, or even covering, which they should do based on the fact that they are better than the Bears.

I’ll stick to my promise and slice this wager in half. This would normally be a five-unit play, but I’ll go halfsies and round up to three.

THURSDAY THOUGHTS: I was thinking about it, and even if Joe Judge makes a screw-up of some sort like he did Monday night when he didn’t challenge the touchdown, the Giants could still lose by fewer than six points. I may increase my unit count by one.

SATURDAY NOTES: There’s nothing to note on the injury report, save for Robert Quinn returning for Chicago. I still think this spread is too high.

FINAL THOUGHTS: This line is dropping, as there’s some smart money coming in on the Giants. I still like New York enough to bet two units. The best number is now +4.5 -105 at FanDuel.

Jacksonville Jaguars (1-0) at Tennessee Titans (1-0)
Line: Titans by 7. Total: 44.5.
Sunday, Sept. 20, 1:00 PM


The Matchup. Edge: Titans.

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TENNESSEE OFFENSE: It wasn’t the prettiest game for the Titans when they battled the Broncos late Monday night. They moved the chains well in between the 20s, but constantly stalled in the red zone. Stephen Gostkowski nearly ruined their chances of winning with three misses (one blocked), but he made the one that mattered the most, as his presumptive play on Denver +3 cashed masterfully.

The Titans won’t face nearly as much resistance against the Jaguars. The Colts, despite their loss, moved the chains with ease against Jacksonville, compiling 451 net yards and averaging 6.5 yards per play. They suffered a defeat partly because of poor red-zone execution and a pair of poor Philip Rivers passes. Ryan Tannehill obviously isn’t as good as Rivers, but perhaps he’ll be more careful with the football and avoid giving the Jaguars some opportunities.

It’s not like the Jaguars have the personnel to stop anything the Titans do, anyway. They’re weak against the run, so Derrick Henry could rebound off a lackluster 2020 debut. They also don’t have the personnel to defend receivers, so A.J. Brown and Corey Davis could excel. Davis was a huge surprise at Denver, as he may finally be living up to his top-five billing.

JACKSONVILLE OFFENSE: The Jaguars appeared to be tanking for Trevor Lawrence, but Gardner Minshew apparently didn’t the memo. Minshew was unbelievable in the opener, going 19-of-20 for 173 yards and three touchdowns against what I deem to be a good Colts defense. The Titans are also stellar defensively, though they may not be at full strength if Adoree Jackson is sidelined. Jackson being out would be a huge deal because the Jaguars have an impressive receiving corps.

I don’t expect the Jaguars to protect Minshew all that well, however, so it’s nice that the second-year quarterback has some nice mobility, which he utilized in the opener when he scrambled five times for 19 rushing yards. Jacksonville also threw off the Titans by putting Laviska Shenault in the Wildcat, but the Titans should be prepared for that.

Jacksonville needed to use Shenault that way, given its long injury list at running back. Ryquell Armstead and Devine Ozigbo were out, which was bad timing considering that this occurred after Leonard Fournette was cut. That said, even if Jacksonville gets back one of those players, it still will have trouble running on the Titans’ stout defensive front.

RECAP: It’s early in the week, but it looks like people are heavily betting the Jaguars. In fact, they’re doing it so much so that this spread has fallen two points from the advance line, going from +11 to +9.

Ten is somewhat of a key number, so we’re getting some value with the Titans. I imagine this move occurred because the Jaguars upset the Colts, but I’m not sure that means very much. It’s only one game, and I’m still convinced that if all injuries are excluded, Jacksonville has the worst roster in the NFL.

As of this moment, I’m going with no units on the Titans, but if Adoree Jackson and other players are out for Tennessee, I may consider switching sides.

THURSDAY THOUGHTS: There’s a high percentage of money on the Jaguars, but I’m wondering if it’s sharp money that took it down from +11 to +8.5. The public isn’t going to pound Jacksonville, right? Anyway, I re-watched the Jaguars-Colts game, and I was impressed by how the Jaguars looked, particularly Gardner Minshew, James Robinson, the offensive line and C.J. Henderson. I’m going to switch sides here, though I’m not sure I’ll be betting the Jaguars.

SATURDAY NOTES: Malcolm Butler received a downgrade Friday when he missed practice after being limited Thursday. This is big news because Adoree Jackson is already sidelined, so the Titans might be down their top two cornerbacks against a very talented Jacksonville receiving corps. I may end up betting on the Jaguars, but it won’t be a large sum.

FINAL THOUGHTS: Malcolm Butler is active, so I will not be betting the Jaguars. The sharps have been doing so, taking this line down to +7.