NFL Picks Against the Spread: Week 9, 2020

Green Bay Packers (5-2) at San Francisco 49ers (4-4)
Line: Packers by 7. Total: 48.5.
Thursday, Nov. 5, 8:20 PM


The Matchup. Edge: Packers.

WEEK 8 RECAP: We had a nice rebound after two rough weeks. We went 9-5 (+$1,210), hitting our top two picks with the Dolphins +3.5 and Seahawks PK covering easily. We got lucky with the Broncos and Eagles wins, but I’d argue that Ronnie Stanley’s injury prevented the Ravens from beating the number, so that goes both ways.

My Week 9 NFL Picks will be posted all day Tuesday. Follow @walterfootball for updates.

By the way, if you want to support this site, check out my new book!



In this book, I talk about the top NFL Draft busts, and what would’ve happened had each team gone a different route. Also, I discuss why Roger Goodell has banned us from the NFL Combine.

GREEN BAY OFFENSE: Who will run the ball for the Packers in this game? That’s a serious question. Aaron Jones may not play because of an injury. A.J. Dillon, meanwhile, has become infected with a minor illness that will force him to miss this contest for some unknown reason. Jamaal Williams could be kept out as well because of his proximity to Dillon. Thus, Green Bay could be down to its fourth running back.

Remind you of anyone? The Seahawks were also down to their fourth back against the 49ers last week, as DeeJay Dallas was forced into handling the workload. And yet, it didn’t matter because Russell Wilson, coming off a loss, went berserk. The 49ers, despite their improved and healthier secondary, could not deal with D.K. Metcalf.

I expect Aaron Rodgers to play the same way. Not only is Rodgers coming off a loss; he’s attempting to avenge last year’s loss in the NFC Championship. Like Wilson, Rodgers has an elite receiver who can’t be stopped. The 49ers won’t have an answer for Davante Adams.

SAN FRANCISCO OFFENSE: I asked who will run the ball for the Packers. Here’s an even better question: Who will even play for the 49ers? San Francisco’s roster was already ravaged by injury, and now the team won’t have Jimmy Garoppolo or George Kittle in this game.

Garoppolo and Kittle got hurt in the second half of last week’s blowout loss at Seattle. Nick Mullens will play, and he has to somehow prevail without Kittle, Deebo Samuel (presumably) and his starting center; not to mention Raheem Mostert and Jeff Wilson Jr. Mullens still has outstanding rookie Brandon Aiyuk at his disposal, but Jaire Alexander, perhaps the best cornerback in the NFL, will erase him.

The 49ers could run somewhat well against the Packers, whose ground defense is rather weak. However, with the passing game not a threat at all, Green Bay will have the luxury of placing more men in the box to force Mullens to throw, which could be disastrous.

RECAP: The Packers are the play. I love betting elite quarterbacks off losses. We had this dynamic last week with Wilson going up against the 49ers, and now Rodgers will get his turn. Rodgers is 31-15 against the spread off a defeat. If you remove all games in which he’s been favored by 7.5 or more, he’s 20-8 against the spread following a loss.

We’ll see how many units this wager is once we see an injury report, but this will almost certainly be a big play on the Packers.

Our Week 9 NFL Picks will be posted all day Tuesday. Follow @walterfootball for updates.

THURSDAY THOUGHTS: I’m posting this early because I want to lock in this pick. The 49ers are a mess. They won’t have their starting quarterback, two offensive linemen (Trent Williams, Ben Garland), their top four offensive weapons (George Kittle, Deebo Samuel, Brandon Aiyuk, Kendrick Bourne), and their usual defensive injuries. With Aaron Rodgers coming off a loss and seeking revenge, I expect a blowout. I’m upset that we missed out on the -6 that was posted earlier today, but I want to lock in -7 for four units before the spread crosses that key number.

FINAL THOUGHTS: I don’t understand why the sharps bet the 49ers at +7. There was plenty of money on the Packers leading up to that touchdown spread, but the pros jumped in on San Francisco, likely because A) David Bakhtiari is out, or B) There’s lots of value on the home underdog. None of this scares me, though I wish I was able to bet the -6.5 +100 available at Bookmaker right now. I still love the Packers at -7 though.

Seattle Seahawks (6-1) at Buffalo Bills (6-2)
Line: Seahawks by 3. Total: 55.
Sunday, Nov. 8, 1:00 PM


The Matchup. Edge: Seahawks.

My overrated-underrated feature was posted in this spot the past couple of years. I thought it would be better if there was less clutter on this page, so I set up a new NFL Overrated and Underrated Teams page that will be updated every Monday. I have overrated and underrated teams listed there, and some may shock you!

Our weekly fantasy football contest has returned. It’s like DFS, but weekly and free, and there are cash prizes! There’s no reason not to enter, and you can submit up to five lineups per week! Click the link here for our new Weekly Fantasy Football Contest!

SEATTLE OFFENSE: Russell Wilson continued his incredible, MVP-caliber season last week by torching the 49ers. San Francisco had displayed an improved secondary in recent weeks, but that was thrown out the window against Wilson, who was merciless. This was nothing new, as Wilson has beaten talented secondaries all year. It helps, of course, to have an unstoppable force like D.K. Metcalf at his disposal.

Metcalf destroyed the 49ers’ talented corners last week, and he has also beaten the likes of Stephon Gilmore as well. Tre’Davious White will have unenviable task of covering him this Sunday. White is one of the best cornerbacks in the league, and yet he doesn’t have much of a chance. The Bills can’t help White either; otherwise, Tyler Lockett will torch them.

Pressuring Wilson consistently is the only answer, but the MVP front-runner is protected very well this season. There’s one hole up front because of Mike Iupati’s injury, but it seems like Iupati has a chance to return this week for the first time since Week 4.

BUFFALO OFFENSE: Iupati’s return will pale in comparison to Jamal Adams being back on the field. Adams hasn’t played since the opening half of the Week 3 battle against the Cowboys, and Seatte’s pass defense has been horrid since. The Seahawks have also missed some other defensive backs, including Shaq Griffin, Ugo Amadi, Delano Hill and Marquise Blair. This is why teams have thrown all over them.

However, Adams’ return will change that. Pete Carroll hinted that Adams would be back in Week 9, which would be a huge boon for the Seahawks, given that they have to cover Buffalo’s three talented receivers. The Seahawks lacking Adams, Griffin, Amadi and the two other safeties would give the Bills a big advantage in the passing game, but there’s a good chance several of those players will return.

The Bills didn’t really use their three receivers in the victory last week, opting to run all over the Patriots instead with Josh Allen and the two talented running backs. The Seahawks are much better versus the run compared to the pass, however, so the Bills won’t have as much success in this dynamic as they did versus the Patriots’ leaky ground defense.

RECAP: This game was a pick ’em on the advance spread, but the Seahawks are now favored by 2.5 and trending up to three. Does Seattle’s impressive win over the 49ers warrant a 2.5- or three-point jump? No, but if you combine that with Adams’ expected return, the line move makes sense.

With that in mind, I’m going to be on the Seahawks, assuming Adams is active. I don’t want to go against Wilson right now, especially if this spread is under three. I sense that the most-likely result of this game is the Seahawks winning by a field goal, so we obviously get that with the -2.5.

THURSDAY THOUGHTS: Jamal Adams practiced Wednesday, which is a great sign for the Seahawks. Adams and Carlos Dunlap should help Seattle’s defense immensely. It looks like I’ll be betting on the Seahawks in some fashion.

SATURDAY NOTES: It’s disappointing that the Seahawks will still be missing some key players like Shaq Griffin, Ugo Amadi and Mike Iupati, but they’ll have Jamal Adams and Carlos Dunlap to bolster their defense this week. Meanwhile, the Bills have some huge injuries as well, with Matt Milano and Mitch Morse both sidelined. The defense is far worse without Milano, and the offensive line won’t block as well without Morse.

FINAL THOUGHTS: Sharp money has been against the Seahawks for weeks, but that has changed. Pro money has been on Seattle, presumably because of Jamal Adams’ return. The best line is -3 -110 at DraftKings.

Denver Broncos (3-4) at Atlanta Falcons (2-6)
Line: Falcons by 4. Total: 49.
Sunday, Nov. 8, 1:00 PM


The Matchup. Edge: None.

VEGAS UPDATE: I’ll be posting how the Vegas sportsbooks have done the previous week in this spot. The highest-bet sides were 44-40-2 last season and 16-20 heading into Week 8.

Here are the teams getting the most bets last week:

Buccaneers -10.5

Eagles -7.5

Steelers +4.5

49ers +3

The highest-bet teams went 2-2. They were 2-1 heading into Monday night, but the Giants covering against the Buccaneers was big for the house.

Here are the teams getting the most bets this week:

Patriots -7

Packers -6

Ravens -3

No one should be surprised that the Patriots are getting the most money over the Jets. Meanwhile, the public loves Aaron Rodgers over Nick Mullens. Shocker!

DENVER OFFENSE: I watched the game, and I still don’t know how it happened. It’s puzzling as to how a woefully inept Drew Lock turned into the second coming of Joe Montana in the fourth quarter last week. He gave the Broncos no chance to win through the first three quarters, yet he couldn’t be stopped when the game was on the line.

It’ll be nice to see Lock show some progression in this game, especially when considering that this is an easy matchup. The Falcons have been poor against the pass all year. They’ll be a bit better with Darqueze Dennard due back soon – perhaps this week – but I still don’t trust the secondary, even against a second-year quarterback missing his top weapon. The lack of a pass rush is an issue.

The Falcons are, at least, better against the run, so they should be able to limit Melvin Gordon and Phillip Lindsay. Gordon could do some damage as a receiver out of the backfield, however.

ATLANTA OFFENSE: It’s no coincidence that the Falcons have been much more explosive offensively in the past few weeks. This coincided with the return of Julio Jones. The elite talent has sparked Atlanta’s scoring unit, which was restricted to 16 points in both of their losses to the Packers and Panthers in Weeks 4 and 5.

The Falcons, however, lost Calvin Ridley to an injury on Thursday night. It remains to be seen if Ridley can play, but if he can’t, the Falcons’ scoring unit will be limited enough for the Broncos to contain them. Denver brings tons of pressure on opposing quarterbacks, so a rattled Matt Ryan could commit a turnover or two if he doesn’t have his full arsenal at his disposal.

The Broncos also stop the run very well, so don’t expect much from Todd Gurley. The veteran back has enjoyed some solid performances lately, but he’s gone up against some soft run defenses like the Lions and Panthers. The Broncos are a different animal as far as that’s concerned. They also are quite literally a different animal than the lions and panthers, but that’s not important.

RECAP: I think this line is way too high. I know four doesn’t seem like a big number, but my personal spread for this game is Denver -1.5. That means we’re getting a small key number of four and going through a huge key number of three!

This might be a weird concept for some, but I think the Broncos are better than the Falcons. Think about it: Outside of quarterback and receiver, are the Falcons better anywhere than Denver is? I don’t think so. The Broncos have the better running game and far-superior defense. They also have a coaching advantage. The Broncos are only 3-4, but Lock missed several games. Since his return, Denver has beaten the Patriots and Chargers.

I like the idea of getting more than a field goal with the better defense. It’s likely that this game is decided by three either way, so we get both results by taking the +4.

THURSDAY THOUGHTS: A.J. Bouye is dealing with a concussion, so his absence would offset Calvin Ridley’s injury. I still like the Broncos at the moment, as I think this spread is too high. The Falcons don’t deserve to be favored by more than a field goal.

SATURDAY NOTES: Calvin Ridley is the headliner on the injury report. He’s listed as questionable, but didn’t practice at all this week. He may play, but even if he does, he may not be 100 percent, just as we saw with Julio Jones in the earlier Green Bay game. While Ridley is the big name, it’s worth noting that the Falcons will be missing their top two edge rushers, Dante Fowler and Takk McKinley. It’s fair to wonder how they’ll pressure Drew Lock. It sucks that A.J. Bouye will be out for the Broncos, but if Ridley is limited or absent, the Broncos can still pull the upset. Then again, the Broncos will be down their entire starting defensive line with Shelby Harris ruled out due to him being on the Nonsense List. This will obviously allow Atlanta to score easily.

FINAL THOUGHTS: With A.J. Bouye out, Bryce Callahan was expected to come out of the slot and defend Julio Jones on the outside. Well, Callahan is out, so I guess that’s not happening. Calvin Ridley is sidelined, but Denver’s defensive woes are worrying. I definitely would not bet this game, and I don’t see that the sharps are doing so either.

Chicago Bears (5-3) at Tennessee Titans (5-2)
Line: Titans by 6. Total: 46.5.
Sunday, Nov. 8, 1:00 PM


The Matchup. Edge: None.

HATE MAIL: I will be posting hate mail here. We got a bit this week:



This is fair criticism! I made a mistake. I proof-read my writing, but even after doing so, it’s easy to miss something because you know what you’re trying to say but didn’t quite say it correctly. Whatever. But agreed with the Charlie part!

This is from the same guy:



There is totally some worse writer out there, right? Like, Bleacher Report has 16-year-olds writing for them, so maybe one or two of them is worse than me? Maybe?

Here’s a guy who thinks I’m a white supremacist:



I think these people are disgusting. Who does he think Native Americans are so weak that he has to white knight them? That’s super racist because he thinks he is better than them.

CHICAGO OFFENSE: I thought the Titans made a great trade to acquire Desmond King from the Chargers. I graded it on my NFL Trade Grades page, but Tennessee got a steal in King to bolster their reeling pass defense. Joe Burrow torched the Titans despite missing his entire offensive line, so that forced Tennessee’s hand.

The Titans’ secondary could be much better in this game. Not only will King help, but Adoree Jackson could also be back from injury. Jackson is expected to practice Wednesday, so his return would be huge, especially against Allen Robinson. The Bears have some underrated receivers beyond Robinson in Darnell “Mad Eye” Mooney and Anthony Miller, so Tennessee needs all the help it can get in the secondary, especially considering that it has no pass rush to speak of.

The poor pass rush will hurt the Titans’ efforts in this contest. The Bears, like the Bengals, are mising multiple offensive linemen, but Tennessee likely won’t be able to take advantage of that. The Titans will, at least, be able to clamp down on the run, but Nick Foles should have a solid performance to offset that.

TENNESSEE OFFENSE: Ryan Tannehill struggled against the Bengals this past Sunday. His interception where he threw across his body into the end zone was a rookie mistake. This definitely does not bode well for this contest, as Tannehill will be in a much tougher matchup against the Bears.

I’d be more bullish on Tannehill’s chances if he still had Taylor Lewan shielding his blind side, but the Pro Bowl left tackle is injured. This will be problematic against the Bears’ talented edge rushers. Tannehill will see some pressure, which will force more errant throws.

The Bears’ greatest challenge in this game will be trying to bring down Derrick Henry. They’re not bad against the run, but Henry has a habit of wearing down defenses. This is a game where Chicago will miss monstrous nose tackle Eddie Goldman, who opted out of the 2020 season.

RECAP: This is a bad spot for both teams. The Titans will have one eye on the upcoming Thursday game against the Colts. The Bears are a non-conference foe, while Indianapolis is Tennessee’s biggest rival. Thursday’s game means so much more to the Titans than this one does. I’d give the Bears a big motivational edge for that reason, but they might be exhausted after a grueling overtime against the Saints.

I’d say the Bears should have a small motivational edge, though that’s a guess. With that in mind, I’m going to be on Chicago despite its offensive line woes. I think this spread is a tough too high. I made this line Tennessee -4, yet it’s -5.5. That’s not a big advantage, but there aren’t many edge to be found.

THURSDAY THOUGHTS: The Bears have a ton of injuries, but the Titans will be looking ahead to Thursday’s game, which means so much more than this one. I like Chicago, but I wish the team were healthier.

SATURDAY NOTES: The Bears will be without three starting offensive linemen in this game – James Daniels, Cody Whitehair, Bobby Massie – as well as their backup center. This would be deterimental if they were playing any other team. The Titans, however, have no pass rush, and now they’ll be without Vic Beasley (cut) and perhaps Jadeven Clowney, who wasn’t able to practice all week. We just saw the Bengals beat the Titans despite missing all five of their starting offensive linemen, so Chicago could keep this game close despite the injury concerns.

FINAL THOUGHTS: A bit of sharp money came in on the Bears at +6.5, but that’s all I have to say about this game. I’d be betting the Bears if they didn’t have such dire offensive line issues. The Titans, meanwhile, will be looking ahead to Thursday’s game.

Detroit Lions (3-4) at Minnesota Vikings (2-5)
Line: Vikings by 3.5. Total: 51.5.
Sunday, Nov. 8, 1:00 PM


The Matchup. Edge: Lions.

NFL Opinion Piece: Did You Know the Titans Survived Covid? As a warning, this could be triggering to you if you have sand-in-the-vag syndrome (i.e. if you’re a blue checkmark on Twitter.)

MINNESOTA OFFENSE: Welcome back, Dalvin Cook! The Pro Bowl back is good to miss several games each year, but he’s excellent when healthy. This was the case this past Sunday, as he rumbled all over the beleaguered Packer ground defense, scoring four touchdowns on his team’s first four possessions. It was a truly amazing performance, which I enjoyed because I had him on my main DraftKings lineup.

Cook should be able to pick up where he left off last week. The Lions are not very good against the run. They limited Jonathan Taylor this past Sunday, but had trouble bringing down Jordan Wilkins of all players. If they had trouble against Wilkins, what will they do versus Cook? Pray that he gets hurt again? That might be their only shot.

The Vikings can move the chains aerially if they want to as well. Detroit has major problems against the pass, thanks to numerous injuries in their secondary. I don’t know how they’ll be able to deal with Justin Jefferson and Adam Thielen, save for some Kirk Cousins incompetence, which has been known to happen.

DETROIT OFFENSE: The Lions have been better since Week 3. They’re 3-4 overall, but 3-2 since that game. That’s an important point in the season because that is when Kenny Golladay returned from injury. Matthew Stafford has not been the same quarterback without his No. 1 receiver.

I’m focusing on Golladay because he’ll be sidelined in Week 9. He struggled last week against shutdown cornerback Xavier Rhodes before leaving the game with an injury. He’s already been ruled out, which is not good news. That said, Stafford still has Marvin Jones and T.J. Hockenson at his disposal, and it’s not like he’ll be battling a talented secondary. The Vikings’ poor corners won’t have the wind to bail them out this week.

It’ll be far more difficult for the Lions to run the ball. I’m not just saying this because the Vikings are far better against the rush than the pass. Something else to consider is that Detroit is wasting far too many downs feeding the ball to Adrian Peterson. It’s inexcusable that Peterson and D’Andre Swift are seeing the same sort of workload at this point. Swift is the far-superior player right now, while Peterson does nothing but waste downs. I’m sure he’ll be motivated to battle his former team, but it won’t matter.

RECAP: The Vikings looked great in their win at Lambeau, while the Lions were pitiful in a home loss to the Colts. And yet, the Vikings are favored by just four points? I bet the public will be dying to bet Minnesota.

I won’t be. I’m actually going to be on the Lions, assuming the injury report isn’t a complete disaster. The Vikings are not good defensively, and the Lions should be able to score to keep up or perhaps win. Also, I wonder if Minnesota will have energy left. The team won’t be making the playoffs, and it just won its Super Bowl against the Packers. What’s the motivation here? I just don’t see it.

This game reminds me of Falcons-Lions from a couple of weeks ago. Atlanta won its first game of the year, but had nothing to play for the following week versus Detroit. The Lions ended up winning outright, which could happen once again.

Furthermore, we’re getting nice line value with the Lions. The advance spread on this game was Minnesota -2. The spread shouldn’t have moved two points, especially across the key number of three. My personal line is Minnesota -1.5, while the computer model says -1 is correct. This could easily be a field-goal game, so we get both results by taking the points.

THURSDAY THOUGHTS: Matthew Stafford has suddenly appeared on the Nonsense List, which means he’s in danger of missng this game unless he tests negatively three times. No Stafford would likely be an auto play on the Vikings, despite the lack of motivation. This line has been taken off the board at all sportsbooks because of the Stafford news.

SATURDAY NOTES: Matthew Stafford and Jarrad Davis are currently on the Nonsense List, which means they may not play in this game for no logical reason. If both play, I like the Lions at +4ish. If Davis is out, I’ll still be on the Lions, but for fewer units. If Stafford is out, I’ll have to reevaluate after I see what the spread is. A healthy Stafford should be able to expose the Vikings’ injury-ravaged cornerback group, even without Kenny Golladay.

SATURDAY NOTES II: Matthew Stafford is off the Nonsense List, so he’ll play. Even without Kenny Golladay, he should do well against a Minnesota defense missing its top two pass rushers and many cornerbacks; not to mention Anthony Barr. The Vikings will be flat off their “Super Bowl” win, and this line is way too high. I love the Lions, and I’m willing to make this a big wager.

FINAL THOUGHTS: The Vikings have so many injuries. The sharps have recognized this, betting Detroit down from +4 to +3.5. I can’t find a clean +3.5; the best vig available is -115 everywhere. Waiting until kickoff could pay off, but I think the vig could increase because the pros are betting the Lions.

Baltimore Ravens (5-2) at Indianapolis Colts (5-2)
Line: Colts by 1. Total: 48.
Sunday, Nov. 8, 1:00 PM


The Matchup. Edge: Colts.

College Football Opinion Piece: Go here to read about why the NCAA Football Should Change Targeting Rule. As a warning, this could be triggering to you if you have sand-in-the-vag syndrome (i.e. if you’re a blue checkmark on Twitter.)

BALTIMORE OFFENSE: Lamar Jackson has feasted on bad and mediocre opponents throughout his career, but he has yet to overcome superior foes. He’s 0-3 versus Patrick Mahomes, and he struggled mightily in two postseason losses. The Colts are certainly a playoff-caliber team, so it’s only reasonable to expect more turnovers and errant throws from Jackson.

Jackson’s issues go beyond battling a strong Indianapolis defense. He’ll be missing left tackle Ronnie Stanley as well. Jackson fell apart after Stanley was knocked out of last week’s game. A big part of Jackson’s 2019 MVP season was the play of his elite offensive line. Now without Stanley and the retired Marshal Yanda, Jackson won’t be the same, especially against a stout front seven like the one the Colts have.

Speaking of the Indianapolis front seven, the Colts are extremely stout against the run, so Jackson won’t be able to lean on his backs. He’ll also have more difficulty scrambling than usual because of Darius Leonard’s presence. Leonard will also do a fine job of limiting Mark Andrews, while shutdown cornerback Xavier Rhodes will take care of Marquise Brown.

INDIANAPOLIS OFFENSE: While the Ravens won’t be able to move the chains as well anymore without Stanley, they can at least still lean on their defense. Now with Yannick Ngakoue, Baltimore is even more stout on this side of the ball.

That said, the Colts have one of the best offensive lines in the NFL, so they’ll be able to keep Philip Rivers relatively well protected against Ngakoue, Matthew Judon and Calais Campbell. Philip Rivers will still see some pressure, of course, but that may not matter most of the time because he tends to get rid of the ball quickly to his backs and tight ends.

Rivers’ refusal to rely on his receivers should actually help him in this matchup. The Ravens have unbelievable cornerbacks who will be able smother T.Y. Hilton and the other wideouts. However, their linebackers don’t cover all that well, so the Colts will be able to take advantage of that.

RECAP: This spread is not correct. The thesis of the Ravens has changed. They’re not going to be the same without Stanley. Their ranking needs to be lowered, and yet that didn’t really happen this week. Otherwise, the Ravens wouldn’t be favored by a field goal on the road versus a high-caliber opponent.

Because the public doesn’t pay attention to offensive line injuries and is slow to react to change, let’s take advantage of that by betting the Colts, who should be favored by a couple of points. Given the Ravens’ decline without Stanley, I believe that the two most likely results of this game are the Ravens winning by three and the Colts winning by three, so we get either a win or a push by taking the field goal.

THURSDAY THOUGHTS: Had I known the sharps would quickly bet this down to +2.5, and now +1.5, I would have locked in this pick when I wrote about it Tuesday afternoon. The professional bettors undoubtedly recognized that the overrated Ravens are in rough shape with so many injuries. I still like the Colts at +1.5.

SATURDAY NOTES: If the Ravens didn’t have enough injuries already, they could now be without their top two cornerbacks. Marlon Humphrey has Fauxvid-19, while Jimmy Smith hurt his back on Friday. This has caused more professional movement on the Colts, who were favored in some books Friday night. The spread is now Baltimore -1 because Patrick Queen and DeShon Elliott were activated from the Nonsense List.

FINAL THOUGHTS: The sharps have been all over the Colts, betting them all the way from +3 to -1. I still like Indianapolis at that number, as I like it to win outright. This spread is just not priced correctly based on all the Ravens’ injuries. Unfortunately, Jimmy Smith is active, which is a bit of a bummer. I’m going to make this a three-unit pick. The best line I see is -1 +100 at Bovada.

Carolina Panthers (3-5) at Kansas City Chiefs (7-1)
Line: Chiefs by 10. Total: 51.5.
Sunday, Nov. 8, 1:00 PM


The Matchup. Edge: Chiefs.

If you’ve followed this site for a while, you might remember that I like to respond to my spam mails. It all started seven years ago, when a man named Jon Wire from the “United Bank of Africoan” promised me an ATM card of some sort, so I responded as a man named Mister Compassion Chuck Norris, who was raised by wolves. The following season, I received e-mails from Richard Held and Loon Bruce, who told me I won a Facebook Award, which comes with a “lump sum pay out of (750,000.00 GBP).” Pretending to be Matthew Millen Kim, I sent out my application and fake money.

I’ve been messing around with spammers ever since, pretending to be Harvey Weinstein, Tom Brady, Ramsay Bolton and Walter White. I had plenty of Spam Mails this year, so check them out if you want to see me screw with spammers. I’ll have new ones every week this year!

KANSAS CITY OFFENSE: There was no stopping Patrick Mahomes last week. Angered because the Jets passed on him in the 2017 NFL Draft, Mahomes took it out on the opposition, going 31-of-42 for 416 yards and five touchdowns. The poor Jets had no chance.

Mahomes doesn’t have a vendetta against the Panthers that I know about, but it may not matter. The Panthers have a battered defense that won’t be able to defend Mahomes or his targets. This wouldn’t be the case if the Panthers were healthy, but they lost several key players to injury, including Kawann Short. Carolina couldn’t even put the clamps on the Falcons last week!

The Panthers are weak to the run and the pass. If Mahomes doesn’t light up the Carolina secondary, it’ll be Clyde Edwards-Helaire and Le’Veon Bell doing plenty of damage on the ground.

CAROLINA OFFENSE: The Panthers won’t be able to stop Mahomes, so they’ll need to keep up with him. They may be getting back a player who might help them do so. That player is none other than Christian McCaffrey.

There’s a decent chance McCaffrey will play in this game. If so, I like him to have a great performance. The Chiefs aren’t very strong against the run, and their linebackers can be beaten by receiving backs. Mike Davis is around, of course, to play for McCaffrey in the event that the talented back can’t return, but he has slowed down of late. There’s no question that McCaffrey would be the far superior option.

McCaffrey will open things up for the other play-makers. The Panthers have a trio of talented receivers, but they have tough matchups against underrated cornerbacks. Also, Teddy Bridgewater will be harassed in the backfield by Chris Jones and Frank Clark, given the state of his mediocre offensive line.

RECAP: Mahomes is 28-14 against the spread in his career, so if you bet against him, you better have a good reason. I can’t think of one. McCaffrey’s return will help the Panthers, naturally, but Mahomes could easily continue his torrid pace and win by a couple of touchdowns.

There’s no reason for the Chiefs to take the Panthers lightly, by the way. There’s nothing for them to look forward to, given that they have a bye next week. With an impending week off, the Chiefs might actually be extra focused, which would hurt Carolina’s ability to cover.

I don’t think I’ll be betting this game because the possibility of a back-door cover is real, but I’m going to be backing Kansas City.

THURSDAY THOUGHTS: No word yet on Christian McCaffrey’s availability, though his presence won’t change my pick. There’s not much else to say about this game, as I don’t plan on betting it.

SATURDAY NOTES: Christian McCaffrey is expected to play. This spread has dropped to -10 as a result in some sportsbooks. I’m actually going to change this pick to Carolina. I think this spread is too high with Mitchell Schwartz out and Yetur Gross-Matos back on the field for the Panthers.

FINAL THOUGHTS: There are reports saying that Christian McCaffrey will be limited in his return, but I’m not buying that. Why would the Panthers play him at all if he’s going to be limited? There’s been sharp money on the Panthers, betting this down from +10.5 to +10.

Houston Texans (1-6) at Jacksonville Jaguars (1-6)
Line: Texans by 6.5. Total: 48.5.
Sunday, Nov. 8, 1:00 PM


The Matchup. Edge: Texans.

Video of the Week: I found this video to be fascinating even though I knew about the dynamic already. Here’s how NFL players go broke, featuring Dwayne Haskins:



This guy didn’t even cover how much money Haskins spent on dates/girlfriends. It sounds like Haskins will go broke soon after he’s done playing in the NFL, which is a shame. Imagine if he spent that first million on GameStop stock when I recommended weeks ago!

JACKSONVILLE OFFENSE: Gardner Minshew is injured, so Jake Luton will make his first NFL start. This is Luton’s real chance to finally prove that he’s more than just an item from the original Final Fantasy. He can really make a name for himself by beating the Texans.

Unfortunately for Luton, he completed just 35.8 percent of his passes at Oregon State while under pressure. This will be an issue against the Texans, who can bring good pressure with J.J. Watt and Whitney Mercilus.

The one hope the Jaguars have of moving the chains is via James Robinson. The Texans have a woeful run defense, so there’s a good chance that Robinson does well enough to keep Luton out of many third-and-long situations. Then again, the Texans will play closer to the line of scrimmage because they won’t feel threatened by Luton, regardless of whether he was stolen by Garland or not.

HOUSTON OFFENSE: There was no stopping Deshaun Watson when he battled the Jaguars back in Week 5. Watson went 25-of-35 for 359 yards, three touchdowns and two interceptions. Watson was able to take advantage of the many liabilities Jacksonville has on its defense.

It’s worth noting that the Jaguars were missing several key players in that Week 5 contest. Myles Jack and C.J. Henderson were among those sidelined, but they’re both back in action. That will definitely help the Jaguars, but the lack of a pass rush and the weaknesses in the secondary will be too difficult to overcome.

Jack’s presence will at least help against the run. That said, the Texans haven’t exactly thrived on the ground this year, as Bill O’Brien’s genius David Johnson-DeAndre Hopkins trade did not pan out in his favor.

RECAP: Say what you want about Minshew’s lacking arm strength, but he really covered up lots of warts on this Jacksonville team with his mobility and gritty play. The Jaguars will miss him, especially when they see Luton and his 35.8-percent completion rate under pressure in action.

Unless Luton ends up being a lot better than we think he is, this should be an easy win for the Texans. I love betting against terrible quarterbacks on horrible teams. We got there last week by fading Ben DiNucci’s Cowboys, and now we’re going to make a similar play against Luton’s Jaguars.

THURSDAY THOUGHTS: There’s no sign of sharp action on the underdog, as the pros understandably don’t want to bet on Jake Luton. I still like the Texans quite a bit, even though Whitney Mercilus is out with a minor illness.

SATURDAY NOTES: Whitney Mercilus being out is the only injury news that emerged this week, beyond Gardner Minshew’s absence, of course. I wish more Jaguars were out – Myles Jack and A.J. Cann are due back this week – but I still like the Texans as a pure fade of a horrible quarterback (Jake Luton) on a terrible team.

SATURDAY NOTES II: Bradley Roby is out, so I’m dropping the unit count to two. I want to fade Jake Luton, but he couldn’t have asked for an easier matchup with Roby and Mercilus sidelined.

FINAL THOUGHTS: Once again, I’ve dropped the unit count because of Roby’s injury. The sharps haven’t touched this game, as far as I can see. The best line I’ve come across is -6.5 -115 at FanDuel.

New York Giants (1-7) at Washington Redskins (2-5)
Line: Redskins by 3. Total: 43.
Sunday, Nov. 8, 1:00 PM


The Matchup. Edge: Redskins.

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NEW YORK OFFENSE: It was surprising to see the Giants play competitively with the Buccaneers on Monday night. Granted, I don’t think we witnessed anything remotely resembling Tampa Bay’s best effort, but the Giants blocked better than usual. Daniel Jones is often under siege on most plays, he didn’t feel that much heat from the Buccaneers’ great defensive line.

So, one of two things happened: Either the Buccaneers overlooked the opposition, or the Giants suddenly fixed their offensive line woes with the few extra days of rest they had following the loss to the Eagles. Call me crazy, but I don’t think the latter is the case. It’s likely that we’ll see the front play poorly once again, especially versus the Redskins’ great defensive line. Thus, the turnovers should continue for Daniel Jones.

The Redskins have some liabilities in their pass defense, so Jones should be able to exploit those on the rare occasions in which he has time in the pocket. I’m sure the Giants will have some successful drives, but Jones will let them down, as usual.

WASHINGTON OFFENSE: The Redskins lost to the Giants in Week 6, 20-19, but don’t think for a second that the Redskin offense was outplayed by Jones and company. In fact, the Redskins outgained the Giants in that game, 357-240.

The reason the Redskins lost was because of two Kyle Allen turnovers that transformed into 14 points for the Giants. New York otherwise had just six points, unless my Windows calculator is broken. Considering Allen was clean the following week in a blowout victory over the Cowboys, I’d like to chalk that up to bad luck. There’s no reason for Allen to be very turnover-prone against a New York defense that isn’t very good overall.

That said, the Giants have a talented cornerback in James Bradberry to limit the Redskins’ one great receiver, Terry McLaurin. New York’s run defense is also solid, so Allen will have to look elsewhere.

RECAP: I bet the Redskins heavily the last time they played the Giants. I would have won if I had gotten a better number, rather than the pick ’em I settled for just prior to kickoff.

I’m going with the Redskins again, as nothing has really changed outside of rest implications. The Redskins are coming off a bye, while the Giants just lost to the Buccaneers in a high-effort game Monday night that came down to the wire. It might be difficult for the Giants to rebound from that, even though they’re underdogs in this matchup. Perhaps they’ll be the team with the sloppy turnovers this time.

We might also be getting some value with the Redskins. They were -3.5 on the advance line, but the spread has fallen to -3. I like the Redskins for a few units, as I think their edge in the trenches will be too difficult for the exhausted Giants to overcome, and I’m glad we no longer have to lay the hook.

THURSDAY THOUGHTS: The sharps have been betting the Giants, taking this line across the main key number of three. I don’t get why they’re doing this, but I still the Redskins, especially now that they can cover by just winning by a field goal.

SATURDAY NOTES: I was wondering if we’d see something unexpected on the Redskins’ injury report because of the line move, but everything is normal. I still really like the Redskins.

FINAL THOUGHTS: Ugh, I was not expecting this line to go back to -3. There was sharp money on the Giants, but it seems as though that was phantom movement to set up a big play for them at -2.5. In other words, professional bettors loved the Redskins at -2.5. I don’t think that’s the case at -3, but the Redskins could still be the right side at that number. The best line is -3 -102 at FanDuel.