NFL Picks Against the Spread: Week 1, 2022

Buffalo Bills (0-0) at Los Angeles Rams (0-0)
Line: Bills by 2.5. Total: 52.
Thursday, Sept. 8, 8:20 PM


The Matchup. Edge: None.

Football is back! I’m excited for this season, and I think it could be our best handicapping season ever. Of course, I say that every year, including last season, when I was barely in the black at +$210. This was a stark change from the +$9,350 result we had in 2020, which was when I finished seventh in the Supercontest.

Though last year was a disappointment, I definitely learned a ton. The beginning of the season was a disaster – after Week 8, I was down $5,120 – but we rallied and were able to finish in the black. I’m confident that the adjustments I made can carry over into the 2022 campaign.

What I wrote in this space last year still applies as far as the ancillary features are concerned. I’m taking care of this guy on less-busy days, so I won’t have the time to write random NFL and college football thoughts:



On the bright side, it looks like he’ll be entering the family business, so maybe we’ll get some content from him in 18 years!

At any rate, everything from last year will return. The spam mails are back because I was able to knock those out in a day during the summer. The same goes for the Video of the Week feature, as well as the fake Monday Night Football broadcast conversation. The stock page will continue to be updated weekly, and I’ll once again be posting new wagers I make on the NFL Betting Props page. As an example, I’m looking to wager on the Bills to win the Super Bowl, but I want to get a good number to do so.

We also have some new features, including WalterFootball Premium. We’ve gotten lots of complaints about the ads over the years, but there hasn’t been anything I can do about them because I’ve needed the ad revenue to pay my employees and the hosting. This is an alternative way to view the site. For $7.99 per month, you won’t get any ads. You’ll also have access to a premium chat where I’ll be every day to answer any questions. The chat will be available soon. If you want to support the site, besides telling others about it, signing up for WalterFootball Premium would be a great way to do so!

With all that said, I’m looking forward to these next 18 weeks. My goal this year is to win the Supercontest, and I’m hoping that the lessons I absorbed last season will help. So, let’s get the picks started with the opening Thursday game!

BUFFALO OFFENSE: The Bills are favored to win the Super Bowl at +550. It’s no wonder the odds are so great; the last time we saw them, they were engaged in an epic shootout with the Chiefs in the divisional round of the playoffs. They were defeated, but only because they lost the coin flip in overtime.

Josh Allen was incredible in that game, and there’s reason to expect him to be even better this season. The Bills addressed a weakness this offseason, which was one of the guard positions. They signed Rodger Saffold, who will be a big upgrade. Furthermore, Gabriel Davis will have a greater role in the offense. I don’t know why the Bills didn’t utilize Davis more during the 2021 regular season, which was frustrating because he was my top fantasy sleeper. Davis won’t be ignored any longer after his four-touchdown performance against the Chiefs.

That said, the Bills have their work cut out for them in this matchup. The Rams have loads of defensive talent, including Aaron Donald, who will collapse the pocket and put pressure on Allen. Jalen Ramsey, meanwhile, will slow down Stefon Diggs. Still, Buffalo will be able to score enough to win, as they have way too much firepower for any NFL defense to handle.

LOS ANGELES OFFENSE: If everything is going right for the Rams, they should be able to match the Bills point for point. While Buffalo’s top-ranked pass rush will be even better in the wake of the Von Miller acquisition, there are some major concerns at cornerback. Tre’Davious White is on the PUP list, while Kaiir Elam is merely a rookie. The Rams receivers should be able to easily get open against the Bills.

The one cavet, however, is Matthew Stafford’s elbow injury. It’s unclear how severe the issue is. Some have opined that he won’t be the same quarterback all year. Others have stated that he has appeared to be perfectly fine. We’ll have to see what he looks like for ourselves, apparently.

One thing to keep in mind is that the Rams aren’t expected to have a big game out of Cam Akers. The Bills aren’t great versus the run, but Akers, according to Charlie Campbell, has been in Sean McVay’s dog house. Darrell Henderson is likely to have more touches as a consequence, but I’m not a big fan of his, so I’m not anticipating much.

RECAP: I love the Bills, and I picked them to win the Super Bowl in my NFL Season Previews. Everyone is smitten with them as well, apparently, as they’ve gone from one-point underdogs to 2.5-point road favorites during the course of the summer.

As great as the Bills are, it’s highly unlikely that they will win all 17 of their regular-season games. They’re bound to lose one, two, or maybe even three times, and this is one of the toughest games on their slate. The Rams, despite losing Von Miller and Andrew Whitworth, are still an upper-echelon team. They’ll also be highly motivated to prove themselves because they’re home underdogs despite winning the Super Bowl seven months ago. Furthermore, McVay is an elite coach who typically thrives when having extra time to prepare for a game. I like Sean McDermott just fine, but McVay’s track record with extra time is impeccable.

I love the Rams in this spot, but the Stafford elbow injury is worrisome. If he’s not quite himself, that could ruin the entire bet. I’d be on the Rams for five (or more!) units at +3 if I knew Stafford were healthy, but I’ll have to downgrade this play a bit as a consequence. This will be a 2-3 unit play, depending on what line we get.

Our Week 1 NFL Picks will be posted all day Tuesday. Follow @walterfootball for updates.

THURSDAY THOUGHTS: Bookmaker has +3 -135 available. I’ll be looking for vig at -125 or better for a three-unit bet on the Rams. Also, I’m going to switch my total to the over.

FINAL THOUGHTS: First of all, there won’t be a live kickoff blog this year because I’m on baby duty. If my son starts crying, I’d have to stop the blog. Second, I still like the Rams, and I’m going to bet the +3 -135 available at Bovada. That’s the best +3 I’ve seen anywhere this evening. There hasn’t been sharp action on either side, though I imagine they’d come in on the Rams at +3 with normal vig, which is why the sportsbooks haven’t moved the line to that number.

Baltimore Ravens (0-0) at New York Jets (0-0)
Line: Ravens by 7. Total: 44.
Sunday, Sept. 11, 1:00 PM


The Matchup. Edge: Ravens.

My overrated-underrated feature was posted in this spot the past couple of years. I thought it would be better if there was less clutter on this page, so I set up a new NFL Overrated and Underrated Teams page that will be updated every Monday. I have overrated and underrated teams listed there, and some may shock you!

BALTIMORE OFFENSE: Lamar Jackson hasn’t quite been the same quarterback since his 2019 MVP season. He hasn’t regressed; it’s been his offensive line’s decline that has caused him to not be as productive. Losing Marshal Yanda to retirement was enormous, while Ronnie Stanley’s constant injuries haven’t helped. Stanley has played just seven games in the past two seasons, and he was on the field for only one last year.

Stanley was activated from the PUP list on Aug. 26, so he should be 100 percent or close to it. His presence will help tremendously, as one of the things the Jets figure to do well this year is rush the passer. They’re getting Carl Lawson back from injury, and they spent one of their first-round picks on Jermaine Johnson. The Ravens will be able to counter this edge rush with Stanley and Morgan Moses.

With time in the pocket, Jackson should have a great game as both a passer and a rusher. The Jets’ linebacking corps is putrid, so Jackson will have an easy time scrambling and targeting Mark Andrews and exciting rookie Isaiah Likely over the middle of the field.

NEW YORK OFFENSE: There was a ton of excitement concerning the Jets offense entering training camp. Zach Wilson was bound to take a big step in his second year, while Breece Hall figured to add some energy to the backfield. However, Wilson looked shaky before suffering an injury in the preseason opener, while Hall has failed to take the job away from Michael Carter. Hall did not look special in the preseason.

Joe Flacco figures to start unless Wilson can make a miraculous recovery. This would be fine if the year were still 2018. That’s not the case, however, as Flacco scored just three points against the Giants’ backups in the final preseason game. He even threw a pick-six. It was completely embarrassing.

Baltimore’s secondary, now completely healthy, will smother the New York receivers. Calais Campbell and the defensive line will limit the running game. Flacco will be asked to do too much to compensate, and that can only end horribly.

RECAP: I mentioned in the Bills-Rams write-up that Sean McVay has an impeccable track record when having extra time to prepare. The same can be said of John Harbaugh. The Ravens are 10-4 against the spread in Week 1 under Harbaugh. They lost last year, but were dealing with tons of injuries. Aside from 2021, the last time they failed to cover in their season opener was in 2015!

The Ravens should be able to dominate this game. They have the far better team, and they own the coaching edge in more ways than one. In addition to Harbaugh’s Week 1 heroics, the staff is very familiar with the opposing quarterback. They know Flacco’s flaws, so they’ll be able to exploit them.

As long as this line isn’t above -7, I’ll be betting the Ravens heavily. In fact, I’ll be looking to lock this in as soon as I see an injury report because I could see this spread moving to -7.5. A half point is a big deal in this instance because seven is the second-most-likely margin of victory in the NFL.

THURSDAY THOUGHTS: Flacco will officially start this game, so I think this spread could be heading upwards soon. I have accounts at five sportsbooks, and none of them have -7 -110 listed anymore. Two have moved to -7.5, so I’m going to lock in the -7 -115 right now at Bookmaker/Bovada/DraftKings.

SATURDAY NOTES: What a bummer that I locked this in already because I’m seeing -7 -105s out there. I think this is because Ronnie Stanley was ruled to be doubtful. I still love the Ravens though, as the Jets will be missing two of their tackles. Plus, I don’t really think the Ravens need Stanely to beat the terrible Jets, especially with John Harbaugh having lots of time to prepare.

FINAL THOUGHTS: It turned out to be a mistake to lock in this pick because the line has dropped to -6.5 across the board. This is because Baltimore will be without Ronnie Stanley and Marcus Peters. I still love the Ravens at -7, though the sharps took the Jets at +7.

New Orleans Saints (0-0) at Atlanta Falcons (0-0)
Line: Saints by 5.5. Total: 44.
Sunday, Sept. 11, 1:00 PM


The Matchup. Edge: Saints.

VEGAS UPDATE: I’ll be posting how the Vegas sportsbooks have done the previous week in this spot. The highest-bet sides were 34-42 in 2020 and 48-37 this past year. As you can tell, the sportsbooks didn’t have the best 2021.

Here are the teams getting the most bets this week:

Ravens -7

Broncos -6.5

Saints -5.5

Panthers -2.5

There is tons of money coming in on those four favorites, so I would not expect them all to cover.

NEW ORLEANS OFFENSE: It was not clear how Jameis Winston would fare coming off his torn ACL, but he looked great during one drive in the preseason. Looking trimmed down, he completed all four of his passes for 59 yards and seemed extremely aware in the pocket. It was a small sample size, but he looked like a completely different quarterback.

Winston, however, will have his work cut out for him this year because he lost his new left tackle, Trevor Penning, to injury. Penning was supposed to replace the great Terron Armstead, but that won’t happen until November at the very least. Luckily for Winston, he won’t have to deal with much of a pass rush in this game, as Atlanta recorded fewer sacks than two individual NFL players last year!

The one thing the Falcons can do defensively is cover receivers, as they have a couple of extremely talented cornerbacks in A.J. Terrell and Casey Hayward. They’ll be able to limit Michael Thomas and Chris Olave, but Alvin Kamara will be a nightmare for the pedestrian linebackers.

ATLANTA OFFENSE: While the Saints offense could be a bit limited because of the left tackle issues, the Falcons will have even more issues moving the chains. Of course, the primary reason will be the quarterback play. Matt Ryan is no longer around, as he has been replaced by Marcus Mariota and Desmond Ridder.

Mariota can scramble around, but he’ll have trouble throwing on the New Orleans secondary. Mariota’s top weapon, Kyle Pitts, doesn’t have the easiest matchup against the Saints’ linebackers, while rookie receiver Drake London will have his hands full versus Marshon Lattimore. Mariota doesn’t have any viable targets beyond those two players.

The Falcons don’t have a strong rushing attack, so they won’t be able to lean on that either. Perhaps they’d be able to get something out of Damien Williams if this were an easy matchup, but it’s not.

RECAP: Everyone hates the Falcons this year, and rightly so. However, I’m not very big on the Saints either, especially in the wake of Penning’s injury. Losing Armstead was a huge deal, and now his replacement won’t be in the lineup until November.

Despite this, the Saints are favored by nearly a touchdown on the road. This is curious for a couple of reasons. First, the Saints have a new head coach making his debut since his disastrous tenure with the Raiders, so that’s a bearish outlook. Second, the Saints and Falcons typically play close games, no matter how good one team is compared to the other. Save for one year, the last time at least one of their games wasn’t decided by eight points or fewer was 2006.

I personally made this line New Orleans -4, so I think there’s a bit of value with the home dog. That said, I wouldn’t go nuts with this game because there’s a legitimate chance the Falcons will be absolutely dreadful this year.

THURSDAY THOUGHTS: The +6 line is available for -119 vig at Bookmaker, which is what I’ll be betting. Six is a very important number these days, thanks to the overtime rule and teams’ tendency to go for two when down 14 and then scoring a touchdown.

SATURDAY NOTES: The sharps haven’t really come in on the Falcons, so we might get a decent +6 at some point during the weekend. I still like Atlanta for a couple of units, especially with the Saints missing a couple of starters.

FINAL THOUGHTS: The sharps still haven’t touched this game. There aren’t any injury updates either. If you bet Atlanta, make sure you get the +6 because six is such a key number now. The best vig for that is -120 at Bookmaker, BetUS and Bovada.

New England Patriots (0-0) at Miami Dolphins (0-0)
Line: Dolphins by 3.5. Total: 46.5.
Sunday, Sept. 11, 1:00 PM


The Matchup. Edge: None.

HATE MAIL: I will be posting hate mail here. If you’re new to this site, I get stuff like this:



I didnt even think this was a real hate mail – I assumed this person was trolling – but as I found out, it was definitely a hater:





I like that James was accusing me of “babbling,” when he said “your saying that exposed your sight as right wing liars BS.” Sure.

I replied, nonetheless:



Unfortunately, there was no answer. Either he shut up because he discovered that I am a doctor, or he was just too exhausted that I was babbling too much. Either way, I don’t expect him to visit my “sight” anytime soon.

MIAMI OFFENSE: Great ready for some fireworks! The public consensus is that the Dolphins will be explosive this year. Not only did they acquire Tyreek Hill; they also obtained numerous upgrades on the offensive line, as well as competent skill players like Raheem Mostert, Chase Edmonds and Cedrick Wilson. If all goes well, this offense will not resemble anything we saw recently.

Of course, there are some question marks. Jaylen Waddle is dealing with an injury and may not be able to play in this game. The offensive line may have to take some time to gel together. And then there’s Tua Tagovailoa, who has a tendency to crush his team with a bone-headed play from time to time, particularly in the red zone. To be fair, Tagovailoa has never gotten a fair shake because of his hip injury and the play of the offensive line, so we’ll find out if he’s the real deal this year.

This definitely is not the easiest matchup for Tagovailoa either. Bill Belichick typically befuddles young quarterbacks, and he’s great at shutting down one aspect of an opposing offense. If Waddle doesn’t play, Belichick will be able to concentrate on Hill, limiting Miami’s scoring unit.

NEW ENGLAND OFFENSE: Whatever issues the Dolphins might have offensively may pale in comparison to the struggles the Patriots could have on this side of the ball. If you’ve paid any attention to New England this summer, you may be aware that the offense has looked extremely pathetic in both training camp and the preseason games. Mac Jones has appeared to take a step backward, while the offensive line hasn’t been able to block at all.

This would be a huge problem for the Patriots if they had to battle a brilliant defensive-minded coach like Brian Flores, but the Dolphins fired him. Their defense won’t be nearly as good this year as a consequence. I don’t trust Josh Boyer to confuse Jones nearly as well, and it won’t help Miami’s cause that the pass rush is somewhat lackluster.

The Dolphins were also sub par when it came to stopping the run last year, and that aspect could be even worse without Flores. This obviously bodes well for the Patriots, as they’ll be able to establish Damien Harris and Rhamondre Stevenson, despite their blocking woes.

RECAP: This spread feels like a giant trap. Everyone loves the Dolphins because of all their acquisitions, namely Hill. Conversely, people are down on the Patriots because they’ve been dreadful in training camp and the preseason games. Despite all of this, Miami was favored by only three points until minutes prior to this write-up being posted.

Why wasn’t this line higher!? I think the public would still be lining up to bet the Dolphins at -4, -4.5, or even -5.5. I assumed the sportsbooks hadn’t pushed this number up because they expected the sharps to pound New England at +3.5 or higher, but perhaps that’s not the case.

I personally like the Patriots at that price. Belichick has had all spring and summer to prepare for the Dolphins, while Miami’s head coach will be making his debut. That is a colossal edge for New England. Yet, the public is completely ignoring this dynamic. They’re throwing money at the Dolphins as if this is the easiest bet in the world.

I’m really not worried about the Patriots’ playing ability because Belichick will get the most out of them. What concerns me is the weather. It’s going to be 90 and humid in Miami, and the Patriots could melt with their navy-blue jerseys, especially in the second half. That’s enough to keep me from making a big play on the Patriots, but I still believe they are the right side.

THURSDAY THOUGHTS: A -4 line has appeared at BetUS. I’d consider locking that in if I liked the Patriots a bit more, but I’m concerned about the weather.

SATURDAY NOTES: The -4 line is gone. I’m not sure why, as there haven’t been any significant injury update, aside from Jaylen Waddle not being listed on the final report. It’s going to be very hot and humid in Miami, so it’s going to feel like a sauna for the team wearing navy-blue jerseys. This scares me enough not to bet New England heavily.

FINAL THOUGHTS: The sharps have come in on the Patriots at +3.5. Again, I fear the weather, but like New England otherwise. Most of the +3.5s are gone, but you can still get +3.5 -115 at BetUS. I’m also betting a half unit on the Patriots moneyline.

Cleveland Browns (0-0) at Carolina Panthers (0-0)
Line: Panthers by 1.5. Total: 42.
Sunday, Sept. 11, 1:00 PM


The Matchup. Edge: None.

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CAROLINA OFFENSE: The fans of both franchises did not expect the Week 1 matchup to be between Jacoby Brissett and Baker Mayfield a few months ago. Carolina supporters have to be elated that the front office found an upgrade over Sam Darnold, especially at a cheap price. Mayfield struggled last year, but only because he dealt with two shoulder injuries. He should be able to perform like he did in 2020, assuming his offensive line improves.

That’s the big question for me. I assumed the Panthers would have better blocking this year because they obtained Ikem Ekwonu, Bradley Bozeman and Austin Corbett this offseason, but the offensive line wasn’t doing a very good job versus Buffalo’s backup defense in the preseason finale. If blocking the Bills’ scrubs was difficult, imagine how the unit will fare against Myles Garrett and Jadeveon Clowney.

Of course, the Panthers will get the ball to Christian McCaffrey as much as possible. McCaffrey did not play in that preseason finale, and his presence obviously makes a huge difference. He’ll hit some big plays against the Browns, but he might be the only productive Panther in this matchup.

CLEVELAND OFFENSE: While Panther fans are happy about Mayfield, Browns supporters can’t be too thrilled about Brissett starting for their team. Deshaun Watson has been suspended for 11 games, so Brissett will have to hold down the fort until the suspension ends.

Brissett has a difficult matchup against Carolina’s pass defense. The Panthers have some very talented cornerbacks, while their pass rush was 11th in pressure rate last season. Luckily for Brissett, he’ll have one of the top offensive lines in the NFL blocking for him.

Speaking of the Cleveland offensive line, it’ll blast open huge holes for Nick Chubb and Kareem Hunt. The Panthers haven’t been as strong against the run as the pass in recent years, so Chubb and Hunt will exploit that weakness.

RECAP: Giving the Panthers one point for being at home – which is the standard these days – this line is saying that Carolina is 1.5 points better than Cleveland. That is absolutely insane, and this is coming from someone who likes the Panthers as a potential playoff surprise team, or at least did prior to seeing their offensive line in the preseason finale.

The Browns are definitely the better team, even with Brissett starting. Their offensive line and defense are far better than what Carolina has. There’s a reason they were 4.5-point road favorites when it wasn’t clear if Watson would be playing or not. That spread factored in the Watson uncertainty, so if Watson were suiting up, this line would be closer to a touchdown. Let’s call it -6.5. Because of Watson’s suspension, this spread has moved NINE points, which is completely ridiculous. No player is worth that sort of line shift; not even a great quarterback.

I love betting good teams using their backup quarterbacks when the line has been adjusted too much, and that’s certainly the case in this game. We’re getting points with the better team that will be looking to prove itself. The Browns should be able to dominate in the trenches on both sides of the ball and vanquish the inferior Panthers. I’m going to make this a four-unit play for now, and I’ll move it to five units if we get +3.

THURSDAY THOUGHTS: I’m going to hold out for a +3, but I’ll be shocked if we get it. The sharps would likely take out mortgages on their homes if they saw such a line. At any rate, this is the first leg of my weekly teaser.

SATURDAY NOTES: I did not think we were going to get +3. In fact, the line has gone the other way, with it being a pick ’em now. I’m still very high on the visitor; I think this line should be Cleveland -3.

FINAL THOUGHTS: Jack Conklin is out, which is a bummer. There were positive reports about him late in the week, but he’s sidelined. I still love the Browns, but would take a unit off my bet for that injury. The best line is +1.5 at FanDuel. There’s not any major sharp action yet.

Pittsburgh Steelers (0-0) at Cincinnati Bengals (0-0)
Line: Bengals by 7.5. Total: 44.5.
Sunday, Sept. 11, 1:00 PM


The Matchup. Edge: None.

If you missed it, I have an NFL Betting Props page. I’ll be adding to it as the season progresses!

Also, Confidence Pool Picks will return. They’ll be posted by Wednesday morning each week!

CINCINNATI OFFENSE: Can Joe Burrow ever get a full offseason of preparation? Burrow was a rookie in 2020, then recovered from a torn ACL ahead of the 2021 campaign. He underwent an appendectomy this summer, and because of an infection, he lost 20 pounds.

Burrow is expected to play in Week 1, but it’s unclear how he’ll perform. It may take him some time to revert back to the elite quarterback we saw dominate the opposition during Cincinnati’s magical Super Bowl run. He’ll at least have an improved offensive line to aid him, but blocking T.J. Watt and Cameron Heyward is easier said than done.

The bolstered offensive line could have the biggest impact when run blocking. The Steelers had a pitiful rush defense last year, and I don’t think they’ve done anything to make a big improvement in that regard. I love Joe Mixon this year, and he could get off to a terrific start in his 2022 debut.

PITTSBURGH OFFENSE: The Steelers obviously have their own quarterback issues. Ben Roethlisberger has retired, so Mitchell Trubisky will take over as the starter until he struggles enough for the coaching staff to give Kenny Pickett a shot. Trubisky thrived in the preseason, but did so mostly against backups.

Like Burrow, Trubisky has a ton of weapons at his disposal, but may have trouble getting the ball to them because of offensive line issues. The Bengals possess a terrific pass rush, which will create problems for the Steelers’ lackluster blocking unit. Left tackle Dan Moore, in particular, will be abused. Trubisky will stil make some nice connections to Diontae Johnson, Chase Claypool, Pat Freiermuth and dynamic rookie George Pickens, but the offense won’t reach its potential because of the blocking.

The offensive line won’t have the greatest success opening holes for Najee Harris. Whereas the Steelers were dead last in rush defense last year, the Bengals were ranked in the middle of the pack. They should be able to limit Harris as a runner, though I expect Harris to have some nice gains as a receiver out of the backfield.

RECAP: If Burrow were healthy, I’d be on the Bengals. My calculated line for this game is Cincinnati -7. That’s not a huge edge, but we’re getting the No. 2 key number in the NFL with a bet on Cincinnati.

However, it’s unclear if Burrow will be healthy. Again, Burrow lost 20 pounds because of his appendectomy. Despite reports being positive, I remain skeptical that Burrow can step in and perform at a high level right away. It may take him some time to revert back to form.

With that in mind, I’m going to be on the Steelers. I don’t like them enough to bet them, but if Burrow is nowhere near 100 percent, we could see a repeat of last year when Pittsburgh went into Buffalo and pulled the outright upset in the season opener.

THURSDAY THOUGHTS: I still don’t have any incentive to bet this game. Tee Higgins told the media that Burrow looked at “full strength” in practice, but that’s not exactly the most trustworthy source.

SATURDAY NOTES: I have no injury report updates and no sharp action updates. This spread has not moved off -6.5 for months. I’m still leaning toward the Steelers, but don’t plan on betting this game.

FINAL THOUGHTS: The line finally moved, with the spread jumping up to -7 because of some sharp action. I guess they’re OK with Joe Burrow coming off the appendectomy. The best line for Cincinnati is -7 -106 at Bookmaker, but if you like the Steelers, you can get +7.5 -114 at FanDuel.

SECOND-HALF BET: I’m going to bet Cincinnati -6.5 for the second half. The Bengals are outgaining the Steelers by a wide margin, but have gotten very unlucky on both sides of the ball.

San Francisco 49ers (0-0) at Chicago Bears (0-0)
Line: 49ers by 6.5. Total: 39.5.
Sunday, Sept. 11, 1:00 PM


The Matchup. Edge: 49ers.

CHICAGO OFFENSE: I recently asked Jacob Camenker, my co-host on the WalterFootball.com podcast, if he thought the Bears had the worst offensive line in the NFL. Jacob compiles NFL offensive line rankings, so off the top of his head, he replied that he believes the Bears are in the running to have the worst blocking unit, and that he couldn’t think of a team in worse shape in that regard.

I believe the Bears have the worst offensive line in the league, which is an issue for any matchup involving a team with a quality pass rush. The 49ers have Nick Bosa and Arik Armstead on the roster, so I don’t see how Chicago will be able to keep them out of the backfield. Justin Fields will constantly be running for his life, and on the rare occasions where he has time to throw, he’ll only have Darnell Mooney as a viable receiver.

The blocking will hurt the Bears’ chances of running the ball effectively with David Montgomery as well. The 49ers boasted the league’s No. 7 rush defense last year, so this was going to be a challenge regardless.

SAN FRANCISCO OFFENSE: Trey Lance will be making his first start as an NFL No. 1 quarterback. He made two starts last year, but those were made in relief of Jimmy Garoppolo. The job is Lance’s now, and with a year more of experience, I expect him to thrive in easy matchups.

This would qualify as an easy matchup. The Bears lost several members of their front seven this offseason, including Khalil Mack and Akiem Hicks. Robert Quinn is still on the roster, but the Bears’ pass rush will be severely diminished, which will be a huge issue in this matchup because the 49ers have a strong offensive line. San Francisco lost Alex Mack and Laken Tomlinson this offseason, but the unit is still solid. Lance will have plenty of opportunities to find his talented trio of weapons against Chicago’s mediocre secondary.

The 49ers, of course, will run the ball as much as possible. The Bears were 19th in rush defense last year, but that was with Hicks and the other departed front-seven members. I believe Chicago will have one of the worst run defenses this year.

RECAP: I’m getting this pick up months in advance because I love the 49ers and don’t want to miss out on this number. This phenomenon occurred last year when the 49ers were favored in Detroit to open the season, and the line rose so much that Detroit ended up covering in the most garbage time of all garbage times.

It’s unlikely that such a thing will occur again, but you never know. Unless the most bizarre back-door cover ever occurs again in the final four minutes, the 49ers should cover this spread easily. This is a completely lopsided matchup, and I don’t think the Bears have much of a chance. I’m locking in this five-unit wager right now. I’ll have an update when I do my Week 1 picks on Tuesday, Sept. 6, but I would bet this now before the spread rises.

WEEK 1 UPDATE: For those of you who missed it, I posted this selection back in July. I wanted to get the -6 before the line moved. The spread is now -7. I still love the 49ers at that number, though I’d probably wager four units on that instead of five because six is such a key number these days. Regardless, I don’t think the Bears have the manpower to compete with the 49ers.

THURSDAY THOUGHTS: No -7.5 yet, so this isn’t quite like 49ers-Lions in Week 1 last year.

SATURDAY NOTES: The 49ers will be missing some starters – Jason Verrett, Jimmie Ward, Daniel Brunskill – and they could be without George Kittle, but I would still bet them for three units at -7. I just don’t see how the Bears will block San Francisco’s front.

FINAL THOUGHTS: George Kittle is out. That, plus the heavy rain, has forced some sharp action on the Bears +7 after San Francisco received pro money at -6 and -6.5. I still love the 49ers for four units at this current price. The best line is -6.5 -108 at FanDuel.

Philadelphia Eagles (0-0) at Detroit Lions (0-0)
Line: Eagles by 5.5. Total: 48.5.
Sunday, Sept. 11, 1:00 PM


The Matchup. Edge: None.

If you’ve followed this site for a while, you might remember that I like to respond to my spam mails. It all started numerous years ago, when a man named Jon Wire from the “United Bank of Africoan” promised me an ATM card of some sort, so I responded as a man named Mister Compassion Chuck Norris, who was raised by wolves. The following season, I received e-mails from Richard Held and Loon Bruce, who told me I won a Facebook Award, which comes with a “lump sum pay out of (750,000.00 GBP).” Pretending to be Matthew Millen Kim, I sent out my application and fake money.

I’ve been messing around with spammers ever since, pretending to be Harvey Weinstein, Joe Biden, Ramsay Bolton and Walter White. I had plenty of Spam Mails last year, so check them out if you want to see me screw with spammers. I’ll have new ones every week this year beginning next week!

PHILADELPIA OFFENSE: I love the Eagles this year. I think if you remove quarterback from every team in the NFC, you could make the claim that they have the best roster in the conference. They own a top-five offensive line and the No. 1 rushing attack from a year ago. And now, in the wake of the A.J. Brown trade, Jalen Hurts has three dynamic threats at his disposal.

Speaking of Hurts, he’s not half-bad himself. He pales in comparison to Tom Brady, Matthew Stafford and Aaron Rodgers, but he’ll be a better passer than he was last year with Brown at his disposal. I actually like his connection with Dallas Goedert the most in this matchup. The Lions have some dreadful linebackers that won’t be able to cover the elite tight end.

Hurts, of course, will do plenty of running. He’ll have nice gains against the Detroit linebackers, while Brown and Devonta Smith figure to win their matchups against the Lions cornerbacks.

DETROIT OFFENSE: The Lions have their issues at linebacker and safety, but they can make a claim to have one of the most explosive offenses in the NFC this season. Jared Goff won’t excite anyone, but Detroit has so many talented play-makers. Its offensive line is also terrific.

The Lions will need that dominant offensive front against the Eagles. Philadelphia was tied for seventh in pressure rate last season despite Brandon Graham playing just one full game. Graham is back, which means the Eagles will have even more success putting pressure on the quarterback. That may not be apparent in this game, however.

The Eagles also have two shutdown cornerbacks to handle the talented Detroit receivers. Their linebackers aren’t as good, so T.J. Hockenson and D’Andre Swift could do some damage over the middle of the field.

RECAP: I hate that the Eagles and Lions are battling each other to start the year. This is a legitimate NFC Championship preview despite the public sentiments on both teams, especially the Lions. I love both squads enough to have placed Super Bowl wagers on them.

Because of my high opinion of the Lions, I made this spread Philadelphia -1. If that’s correct, we’re getting a ton of value with the Lions. It helps that Detroit will be highly motivated after being completely embarrassed by Philadelphia at home during the middle of the 2021 campaign.

Despite the line value, I’m going to refrain from betting this game because I love the Eagles’ chances of advancing to the Super Bowl this year. I just don’t want to bet against them or the Lions, so I’m going to have to wait until Week 2 to do so.

THURSDAY THOUGHTS: I’m still pissed these teams are playing against each other. I’m not betting this game, and it doesn’t look like the sharps have much interest either.

SATURDAY NOTES: This spread potentially moved because of the possibility that Frank Ragnow would miss this game after being absent in Thursday’s practice, but reports indicate that he looked good on Friday. I may end up betting on the Lions with the extra spread value.

FINAL THOUGHTS: Frank Ragnow is playing, which is great news for the Lions. Despite this, there has been no sharp action on Detroit, which is a bit surprisng to me. I’m going to throw a unit on the Lions at +6 -115, which is available at Bovada.

Indianapolis Colts (0-0) at Houston Texans (0-0)
Line: Colts by 7. Total: 45.5.
Sunday, Sept. 11, 1:00 PM


The Matchup. Edge: None.

Video of the Week: The NFL is back, which means we can look at a great week in league history. I can’t embed this video because the NFL won’t allow it, but it’s a great reminder of how amazing ESPN used to be.

What a shame. I mean, really. All ESPN does is woke crap. We used to get great highlights, and this week was incredible. Bruce Smith became the NFL all-time leader in sacks. Randy Moss caught a touchdown pass like Willie Mays. Warren Sapp also caught a touchdown pass. Jerome Bettis passed Thurman Thomas on the all-time rushing list. Doug Flutie threw touchdowns to LaDainian Tomlinson. And Clinton Portis had one of the most ridiculous games ever for a running back. Now, if we tune into ESPN, we get to hear about how crappy we all are unless we believe their woke garbage.

INDIANAPOLIS OFFENSE: Matt Ryan is 37 years old, but he’ll be an upgrade over what the Colts got from Carson Wentz last season. Wentz hit some big plays and created tons of downfield pass interference flags, but he absolutely crushed his team with mistakes. He also completed just one pass in the first 29 minutes of a must-win battle against the Raiders in Week 17.

Ryan may not have Wentz’s upside, but he has a much higher floor as well. He won’t crush the team with careless blunders. He should have a nice rapport with Michael Pittman Jr., though the gifted receiver could have his hands full with talented rookie cornerback Derek Stingley Jr. Houston’s secondary isn’t half-bad, so Indianapolis’ aerial attack may not have the best showing in Ryan’s debut with his new team.

That said, it may not even matter with Jonathan Taylor potentially running wild. The Texans have a dubious front seven, so I can’t see them having too much success tackling Taylor. The one caveat is that the Colts lost two offensive linemen this offseason, so Taylor may have issues matching the great production he enjoyed versus the Texans last year.

HOUSTON OFFENSE: Whatever production the Colts get out of Ryan will certainly be better than what Davis Mills will provide the Texans. Mills will continue as the starter in his second year after a pedestrian rookie campaign. Mills will have more experience this time, but he has a limited skill set, so he seems like a capable backup at best.

The good news for Mills in this matchup is that Indianapolis had the league’s worst pressure rate last year. That will certainly improve with Yannick Ngakoue now on the defensive line, but it’s not like Ngakoue will have a great matchup. He’ll be going against Laremy Tunsil, who is capable blind-side protector. The rest of Houston’s offensive line isn’t terrible either, so Mills should have time in the pocket.

Meanwhile, I’m expecting a strong performance out of rookie running back Dameon Pierce. The Florida product was impressive in the preseason, and he seems to have a favorable matchup with Indianapolis’ top defensive player, Shaq Leonard, potentially sidelined with an injury.

RECAP: I think this spread is way too high. I made this line Indianapolis -4. If I’m correct, we’re getting three points of spread value with the Texans, including two extremely important key numbers (6, 7).

Now, you might think I’m insane for labeling this as a four-point spread, but I have a couple of arguments to make. First, I believe the Colts are overrated. As mentioned, they lost a couple of offensive linemen this offseason, and they probably won’t have their best defensive player patrolling the middle of the field. Even if Leonard plays, he may not be 100 percent coming off the injury so quickly. Furthermore, Ryan is not the quarterback he once was, so expecting to jump into the starting role on this team and lead his team to victory is a bit presumptive.

Second, I don’t think the Texans are as bad as everyone is making them out to be. They’re not a good team, by any means, but I don’t believe that they are the worst team in the NFL. They made strides at the end of the 2021 season, beating the Chargers and Titans, and nearly knocking off Tennessee a second time to close out the year. Everyone saw them struggle during the Amazon Prime game during the preseason, but this was an overreaction. The Texans didn’t have Brandin Cooks and some of their other top players on the field for that game, so I don’t think it’s a concern that they struggled to score on a backup defense.

I could be completely wrong about these teams, but I don’t think I am. I believe the value we’re seeing is real, so I’m willing to make a hefty wager on the huge home underdog. I planned for a four-unit bet at +8, but the sharps bet this line down to +7 on Tuesday afternoon.

THURSDAY THOUGHTS: As mentioned, the sharps bet this down to +7, but Shaq Leonard practiced fully on Wednesday. His return would make me like the Texans a bit less, though he may not be 100 percent.

SATURDAY NOTES: Shaq Leonard has been ruled out, which is great news for Houston backers. This line is way too high, and the sharps agreed, at least at +8.

FINAL THOUGHTS: The sharps bet on the Texans at +8 and +7.5, but not at +7. This line is +7 across the board. I still like the Texans for three units.

Jacksonville Jaguars (0-0) at Washington Redskins (0-0)
Line: Redskins by 3. Total: 43.5.
Sunday, Sept. 11, 1:00 PM


The Matchup. Edge: None.

The Adventures of Tom Brady’s Haircuts are complete. They may return in the future, but I had to stop them for now. Besides, I wrote a similar-type book is called How the 2020 MVP Was Stolen:



Oh, and my other book is still available as well:



In this book, I talk about the top NFL Draft busts, and what would’ve happened had each team gone a different route. Also, I discuss why Roger Goodell has banned us from the NFL Combine.

JACKSONVILLE OFFENSE: It’s safe to say that Trevor Lawrence’s rookie campaign was disappointing. Some believed the Jaguars would make the playoffs. Instead, they had the worst record in the NFL.

Of course, much of this wasn’t Lawrence’s fault. He struggled to begin the year, but improved as the season progressed. However, he was handicapped by abysmal coaching and a mistake-prone supporting cast. Both areas have improved, with Doug Pederson replacing the inept Urban Meyer. Meanwhile, Lawrence will have Christian Kirk and Travis Etienne at his disposal this year. Etienne is a dynamic weapon out of the backfield, and he’ll threaten Washington’s linebackers in this game.

Kirk also has a great matchup. The Redskins were woeful when it came to stopping opposing aerial attacks in 2021. Kirk is a colossal upgrade over Lawrence’s No. 1 receiver from last year following D.J. Chark’ season-ending injury in Week 4. The only question is whether Lawrence will have time in the pocket, but Chase Young won’t be on the field. The Redskins had the league’s 19th-ranked pressure rate in 2021, so Lawrence shouldn’t feel too threatened.

WASHINGTON OFFENSE: Carson Wentz will take over at quarterback for Taylor Heinicke this year. Heinicke did a fine job at times last year, but he’s too limited to be a successful starter in the NFL. Wentz definitely possesses more upside with his ability to connect on downfield throws.

Wentz, however, has a habit of making terrible decisions. He has performed this way ever since he suffered a concussion at the hands of Jadeveon Clowney in a playoff game. If this changes, I’ll need to see it to believe it. Wentz will see plenty of pressure from Jacksonville’s improved pass rush in this game, so that could force him into mistakes.

The Jaguars were ranked in the middle of the pack last year as far as run defense was concerned. The Redskins appeared to have a talented back capable of taking advantage of that in Brian Robinson, but the promising rookie was shot last week. Antonio Gibson will start in place of him, but he was extremely underwhelming in the preseason.

RECAP: I think the wrong team is favored in this game. My personal line is Jacksonville -1.

“Jacksonville -1!?” you ask. Yes, I think the Jaguars should be favored. I have Jacksonville as one point better than Washington, and I’m giving the Redskins no points for their absolutely dreadful home-field advantage. Aside from the Giants, no team currently has a worse home-field advantage than Washington in regard to spread covering percentage. Since 2010, the Redskins are 42-53 against the spread at home, being outscored by an average of 3.5 points. By contrast, they are 49-44 ATS on the road in that span, losing by an average of 3.8 points.

The Jaguars, meanwhile, are going to be much better this year. Their quarterback has experience and will be surrounded by some competent players. The pass rush figures to be potent. Oh, and Jacksonville has a real head coach! I’m not a huge fan of Pederson, but he’s a billion times better than Meyer, who was a complete joke.

I’m extremely disappointed in myself that I didn’t post a write-up earlier this summer when this line was +3.5. I’m also disappointed in myself for not locking in +3 because the sharps bet the Jaguars down to +2.5 on Tuesday afternoon. I still like Jacksonville at +2.5, but not nearly as much as I did at +3 and especially +3.5. Three is the top key number in the NFL, so losing out on that is significant.

I’m going to hold out hope that we see +3 again, but I’m not going to hold my breath because the sharps are responsible for this line movement.

THURSDAY THOUGHTS: I think there’s a better chance that we see +2 than +3 again, unfortunately. This is the second leg of my teaser with the Browns.

SATURDAY NOTES: The only thing noteworthy on the injury report is that Kamren Curl will be out for the Redskins. That’s not enough to move the needle for me, but I already liked Jacksonville. This will likely be a three-unit bet, but we’ll see where the spread goes by Sunday morning.

FINAL THOUGHTS: The sharps were betting the Jaguars early in the week, but there’s been some pushback from different pro bettors on Washington at -2.5. The best line is Jacksonville +3 -105 at Bookmaker. If you like the Redskins, you can get -2.5 -118 at FanDuel.