New England Patriots (Last Year: 8-9)
2023 NFL Season Preview:
Veteran Additions:
WR JuJu Smith-Schuster, OT Riley Reiff, OT Calvin Anderson, TE Mike Gesicki, LB Chris Board, P Corliss Waitman.
Early Draft Picks:
CB Christian Gonzalez, DE Keion White, S Marte Mapu, C Jake Andrews, K Chad Ryland, G Sidy Sow, G Atonio Mafi. Patriots Rookie Forecast
Offseason Losses:
RB Damien Harris, WR Jakobi Meyers, WR Nelson Agholor, TE Jonnu Smith, OT Isaiah Wynn, OT Marcus Cannon, OT Yodny Cajuste, C James Ferentz, S Devin McCourty, P Jake Bailey.
2023 New England Patriots Offense:
To say that the Patriots sometimes had a dysfunctional offense last year would be an understatement. New England averaged only 21.4 points per game, which almost seems high when factoring in a couple of things. One such item would be that the Patriots lacked a real offensive coordinator, opting to use defensive specialist Matt Patricia in that role instead. The results were disastrous, as Mac Jones was often seen yelling at the coaching staff. The Patriots resolved this issue by hiring a real offensive coordinator, Bill O’Brien. While it’s true that O’Brien has a completely toxic personality, and neither Bill Belichick nor Nick Saban has won a championship with him as their offensive coordinator, O’Brien is actually a real offensive coach, which is a massive upgrade over Patricia.
Another big problem the Patriots had on this side of the ball last year was their poor blocking. Jones is already as mediocre as they come for a quarterback, so he didn’t get the help from his blocking that he enjoyed during his impressive rookie campaign. Jones regressed as a result, seeing his completion percentage drop 2.4 points, his YPA fall by 0.5, and his touchdown-to-interception ratio plummet from 22:13 to 14:11.
New England really needed to improve the offensive line, but failed to do so, only bringing in washed-up veteran Riley Reiff and a pair of third-day selections to help. Reiff is currently slated to start at right tackle, which could have disastrous results. He’ll bookend Trent Brown, who has an extensive injury history. Brown has missed 18 games in the past three years, though he somehow remained on the field for all 17 contests in 2022. Given his weight issues, Brown is likely to be out of action once again this upcoming season.
The Patriots have two capable blockers in the interior, while the third starter is a big question mark. Center David Andrews has been a mainstay on the offensive front, while right guard Mike Onwenu has done a great job of improving his game since being selected in the sixth round of the 2020 NFL Draft. Given the success rate in which the Patriots have obtained interior linemen late in the draft, it was odd to see them choose Cole Strange in the opening frame last year. Strange, whom the Rams were targeting in the third round, did not perform well as a rookie, though there’s obviously room for improvement.
Aside from surviving some shaky blocking, one thing Jones will have to overcome this year is the loss of Jakobi Meyers. Currently with the Raiders, Meyers had been a reliable No. 1 target for Jones, but he’s no longer available. The Patriots have replaced him with JuJu Smith-Schuster, who struggled to connect with Patrick Mahomes last year. Smith-Schuster has been in regression since his brilliant rookie campaign with the Steelers. Other notable New England receivers include DeVante Parker, an inconsistent player who will decline now that he’s in his 30s, and Kendrick Bourne, who spent some time in Belichick’s dog house last year. Perhaps 2022 second-rounder Tyquan Thornton will make his way into the lineup. There’s also tight ends Hunter Henry and Mike Gesicki, who are reliable intermediate threats.
Given the lack of talent in the receiving corps, Jones will have to lean on his rushing attack, which will welcome back Rhamondre Stevenson. The third-year runner has good ability, though he made some crucial mistakes at times last year. Damien Harris is gone, so Stevenson will handle more of the workload.
2023 New England Patriots Defense:
The Patriots nearly qualified for the playoffs last year despite their severe offensive struggles. This can be explained by their defensive strength. They ranked seventh in pressure rate and surrendered just 20.4 points per game.
New England’s pass rush is the strength of their entire roster, and it remains unchanged heading into 2023. Matthew Judon and Deatrich Wise Jr. will reprise their roles as the two starting edge players, while Josh Uche will continue to rotate in on passing downs. Judon was one of the top pass rushers in the NFL, logging 15.5 sacks. Uche recorded 11.5 sacks, while Wise had 7.5. The Patriots also spent a second-round pick on Keion White, who figures to contribute more in 2024 and beyond when some of the players ahead of him will be headed for free agency.
The one difference between this year’s pass rush and last year’s version is Christian Barmore’s availability. Barmore is a talented interior player, but he missed seven games with a knee injury. His presence will make New England even more lethal in regard to generating pressure. Barmore will rotate with Lawrence Guy, Davon Godchaux, and Daniel Eukuale, all three of whom are middling talents.
An improved pass rush will be needed to mask the weakness the Patriots have at cornerback. Bill Belichick tried to upgrade the position by selecting Christian Gonzalez No. 17 overall in the 2023 NFL Draft. Gonzalez is very athletic, but he was knocked for his lack of toughness. In fact, some teams removed him from their board. Perhaps Bill Belichick can get the most out of Gonzalez, and if so, Gonzalez will pair well with Jonathan Jones. There’s also Jack Jones, a fourth-round pick from 2022, who had some positive moments as a rookie. The Patriots would do well to keep Jalen Mills off the field, who was ruthlessly torched last year.
While the Patriots’ secondary gained Gonzalez, it also lost Devin McCourty, who was a force at safety for a very long time. New England, however, has plenty of other talented safeties, including Adrian Phillips and Kyle Dugger. The latter, a former second-round pick, took a big step in production last season and became one of the better players at his position in the entire league.
Speaking of players who have made a big jump, Ja’Whaun Bentley was a great performer in 2022 after some mediocre seasons. He’s a three-down player who will start next to Jahlani Tavai, a two-down specialist who is a quality run defender.
2023 New England Patriots Schedule and Intangibles:
Since 2003, the Patriots are 142-31 at home. They’ve been a near-perfect 70-21 as hosts in the past 91 games, with two losses coming against the Bills without Tom Brady. That said, New England lost a home playoff game to Tennessee.
The Stephen Gostkowski era is over. The Patriots moved on from him with Nick Folk, who went 36-of-39, including 5-of-8 from 50-plus in 2021. He was 32-of-37 last year, including 4-of-5 from beyond 50. However, the Patriots spent a fourth-round pick on Chad Ryland to challenge Folk.
Jake Bailey was a terrible punter last year, so the Patriots used a sixth-round selection on Bryce Baringer.
New England had miserable special teams last year that ended up costing the team numerous games, including a must-win at the end of the year versus Buffalo.
The Patriots could be in a hole to begin the season, as six of their first eight oppinents are the Eagles, Dolphins, Jets, Cowboys, Bills, and Dolphins again.
2023 New England Patriots Rookies:
Go here for the Patriots Rookie Forecast, a page with predictions like which rookie will bust and which rookie will become a solid starter.
2023 New England Patriots Positional Rankings (1-5 stars):
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2023 New England Patriots Analysis: The Patriots will continue to boast one of the top defenses in the NFL. The offense is the concern, however, as Mac Jones will continue to get poor pass protection and have subpar receivers at his disposal. Even worse, the AFC East has gotten much better with Aaron Rodgers entering the division. With a tough schedule, wins will be difficult to achieve.
Projection: 5-12 (4th in AFC East)
2022 Projection: 10-7. 2022 Actual Result: 8-9.
2021 Projection: 8-9. 2021 Actual Result: 10-7.
2020 Projection: 11-5. 2020 Actual Result: 7-9.
2019 Projection: 11-5. 2019 Actual Result: 12-4.
2018 Projection: 14-2. 2018 Actual Result: 11-5.
2017 Projection: 14-2. 2017 Actual Result: 13-3.
2016 Projection: 12-4. 2016 Actual Result: 14-2.
NFL Draft Team Grade: B- Grade
Goals Entering the 2023 NFL Draft: The Patriots are the worst team in the division, as they have many holes on their roster. This includes the receiving corps, linebacking corps, and secondary. Worst of all, however, are the quarterback and offensive line situations. There’s talk that the Patriots will move Mac Jones. Either way, they’ll need to radically bolster the blocking for whomever is under center next year.
2023 NFL Draft Accomplishments: Bill Belichick is more than willing to acquire third-round prospects in the opening frame, so everything was possible when New England came on the clock at No. 14 overall. The Patriots traded back a few spots, and then selected Christian Gonzalez at No. 17. This was a terrific pick, as Gonzalez was a top-10 prospect. He dropped because some teams soured on his lack of toughness, but he’s still incredibly talented.
I loved the Patriots’ initial two selections, as Keion White provided value as a skilled pass rusher in the middle of the second round. That, however, was the beginning of the end of the Patriots’ positives. Belichick likely ran out of players he liked, so he began picking UDFA-type prospects as early as the third frame. Even worse, he traded up for a kicker in the fourth round!
When the Patriots went Gonzalez-White to start the draft, I never imagined that I wouldn’t grade their overall class very favorably, but I’m left with no choice. New England squandered way too many selections following such a great start.
NFL Draft Individual Grades:
17. Christian Gonzalez, CB, Oregon – A+ Grade
Holy s**t, I got a Patriots pick correct! If the site didn’t suck tonight, I’d be so happy right now. Christian Gonzalez has fallen because some teams believe he has no toughness. However, he is super talented and fills a big need for New England. Gonzalez could have easily gone No. 7 overall, so I love this pick.
46. Keion White, DE, Georgia Tech – A Grade
The Patriots have numerous expiring contracts at defensive end in the next couple of years, so they had to find a pass rusher for the long haul. Keion White had a slight chance to be a first-round pick, so I think this is a great value pick for Bill Belichick, who is having a great draft thus far.
76. Marte Mapu, S, Sacramento State – MILLEN SHOVING A MAPU UP THE BACKSIDE Grade
What is this, seriously? The Patriots could have moved down two rounds and drafted Marte Mapu. I didn’t even have him as a definite pick in all seven rounds, as he’s too small to be a linebacker and too slow to be a safety. Bill Belichick loves going off the board like he did last year with Cole Strange, and this is another instance of that.
107. Jake Andrews, C, Troy – C- Grade
Patriots fans can’t be upset with the team drafting an offensive lineman, given how bad the blocking was last year. However, Bill Belichick is going off the board again, as Jake Andrews was a borderline draftable prospect. New England should have traded down.
112. Chad Ryland, K, Maryland – DON’T KICK THE 100-PERCENT USDA MAN IN THE NUTS MILLEN Grade
Not only did the Patriots waste a fourth-round pick on a kicker; they traded up for one! This is a Millen grade, through and through. Kickers should be chosen in the late rounds, and no one should ever trade up for one.
117. Sidy Sow, G, Eastern Michigan – D Grade
Talk about going off the draft board. I never once considered putting Sidy Sow in the seventh round of my mock draft, so the Patriots are just beginning the UDFA segment early. At least they addressed the offensive line…
144. Atonio Mafi, G, UCLA – B Grade
This is a player who could have gone where the Patriots selected some of their other reaches. Another blocker makes sense, and Atonio Mafi is a powerful blocker who can blast open big running lanes for Rhamondre Stevenson.
187. Kayshon Boutte, WR, LSU – A Grade
Kayshon Boutte was considered a first-round prospect this time last year. He then disappointed production-wise at LSU, and then proceeded to test very poorly at the combine. Still, he’s well worth drafting at this point, especially given the Patriots’ poor receiving room.
192. Bryce Baringer, P, Michigan State – B Grade
I’m not going to bash a punter pick in the sixth round. Punters, like kickers, are abominations, but you can draft an abomination in the sixth round. This is much better than a kicker in the third round.
210. Demario Douglas, WR, Liberty – B Grade
Demario Douglas is at his best when running after the catch. However, he’s a smaller wideout at 5-8, 179. This caused him to fall, but I’m fine with the Patriots taking him here.
214. Ameer Speed, CB, Georgia – C Grade
Ameer Speed is a huge, 6-3 cornerback, but he has some severe speed concerns. He’s also very prone to being penalized. There’s a lot of work to do with him, but maybe Bill Belichick can turn him into a good player.
245. Isaiah Bolden, KR, Jackson State – B Grade
Isaiah Bolden is listed as a cornerback, but he could be New England’s kick returner. He scored two kickoff touchdowns in 2021, so I’m all for taking someone like that at this spot.
Season Summary:
The Patriots would have qualified for the postseason had they beaten the Bills in the finale. They’re close to being a playoff team, but that doesn’t mean that they don’t have plenty of needs.
Offseason Moves:
Team Needs:
- Offensive Tackle: New England’s pass protection was abysmal last year. A new tackle is needed. Isaiah Wynn could be re-signed, but he’s not a dependable player because he’s always injured. Signed Riley Reiff and Calvin Anderson
- Two Wide Receivers: The Patriots have needed a No. 1 receiver for quite some time. They’ll need a No. 2 as well if Jakobi Meyers isn’t re-signed. Signed JuJu Smith-Schuster
- Two Cornerbacks: One cornerback was already needed in New England’s very weak secondary. Make that two if Jonathan Jones isn’t re-signed. Re-signed Jonathan Jones
- Linebacker: Bill Belichick will want better play at linebacker to bolster his defense. Signed Chris Board
- Defensive Tackle: An upgrade is needed in the interior defensive line next to Christian Barmore.
- Safety: Devin McCourty is an impending free agent who will need to be re-signed or replaced.
- Punter: New England’s punting was miserable last year. Signed Corliss Waitman
Follow me @walterfootball for updates.
2023 NFL Free Agent Signings:
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JuJu Smith-Schuster, WR, Chiefs. Age: 26. 
Signed with Patriots (3 years, $33 million)
JuJu Smith-Schuster broke into the NFL as an electric player, but has regressed since. He was just a mediocre possession receiver last year.
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Mike Gesicki, TE, Dolphins. Age: 27.
Signed with Patriots (1 year, $9 million)
Mike Gesicki was coming off two consecutive 700-yard receiving seasons, but saw his production diminish because of Tyreek Hill’s presence. He’s still a solid, but unspectacular tight end.
- Calvin Anderson, OT, Broncos. Age: 27.
— Signed with Patriots
- Riley Reiff, OT/G, Bears. Age: 34. — Signed with Patriots
- Corliss Waitman, P, Broncos. Age: 27. — Signed with Patriots
- Chris Board, LB, Lions. Age: 28. — Signed with Patriots (2 years)
New England Patriots Free Agents:
Salary Cap: TBA.
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Jonathan Jones, CB, Patriots. Age: 29.
Re-signed with Patriots (2 years)
Jonathan Jones is a talented cornerback who can play well outside and in the slot. The only downside is that he’ll turn 30 during the second year of his contract.
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Devin McCourty, S, Patriots. Age: 36.
Announced retirement
Devin McCourty has been an exceptional player for quite some time, but his time in the NFL is coming to an end. He turns 36 in August.
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Jakobi Meyers, WR, Patriots. Age: 26.
Signed with Raiders (3 years, $33 million)
Jakobi Meyers has been able to gel with every quarterback with whom he has been paired. He’s a very reliable possession receiver. The problem is that he’s been used as a No. 1 in New England when he’d be better off as a No. 2 option.
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Isaiah Wynn, OT, Patriots. Age: 27.
Isaiah Wynn is a talented blocker, but he has major trouble staying healthy. He has never played a full season, missing 23 games in four years.
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Damien Harris, RB, Patriots. Age: 26.
Signed with Bills
Damien Harris is a talented runner, but there are two issues with him. One is that he doesn’t offer much as a receiver out of the backfield. The other is that he’s had trouble staying healthy.
- Nelson Agholor, WR, Patriots. Age: 30. — Signed with Ravens
- Marcus Cannon, OT, Patriots. Age: 35.
- James Robinson, RB, Patriots. Age: 25.
- Yodny Cajuste, OT, Patriots. Age: 27. — Signed with Jets
- Jalen Mills, CB/S, Patriots. Age: 29. — Re-signed with Patriots
- Jake Bailey, P, Patriots. Age: 26. — Signed with Dolphins
- James Ferentz, G/C, Patriots. Age: 34.
- Mack Wilson, LB, Patriots. Age: 25. — Re-signed with Patriots (2 years)
- Matthew Slater, WR/ST, Patriots. Age: 37.
- Carl Davis, DT, Patriots. Age: 31.
- Joejuan Williams, CB, Patriots. Age: 25.
- Cody Davis, S, Patriots. Age: 34. — Re-signed with Patriots
- Michael Palardy, P, Patriots. Age: 31.
NFL Free Agent Tracker:
QB | RB | FB | WR | TE | OT | G | C | DE | DT | OLB | ILB | CB | S | K/P | FA Grades | FA Rumors
2024 NFL Mock Draft - April 23
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