2020 NFL Betting Props






These are my 2020 NFL Betting Props. I've done well with these props over the past couple of years. My dollar count for win totals since 2014 is +$2,240. Here's what I'm planning on betting this year (results will be added to the regular-season winnings/losses on the NFL Picks page after the Super Bowl is over):

Updated July 18, 2020

July 17 update: I'm currently in Las Vegas, so I thought this would be a good time to review my selections. I've locked many in already, but I'll discuss how confident I am about each of them and where you can find the current best lines.

July 18 update: I added three more props, all involving the Falcons in some fashion.



2020 NFL Betting Props: Win Totals

Atlanta Falcons: Over 7.5 Wins
My Supercontest proxy Andy talked up the Falcons when we were discussing the 2020 season. He got me thinking heavily about the Falcons, and the more I thought about them, the more I realized I like them heading into this year. The Falcons were terrific down the stretch when they made some coaching adjustments. Chris Lindstrom's return from injury also helped. Lindstrom and Kaleb McGary will be better in their second seasons, so the offense should be great. The secondary is a big question mark, but with the coaching move and an upgraded pass rush, perhaps it won't be that bad. With that in mind, I think there's a good chance the Falcons have a 8-8 record or better.

Betting 3 Units (+100) at Westgate (locked in as of 7/18/20)

Chicago Bears: Under 8 Wins
I don't think the public recognizes how bad the Bears are. Their defense, while still very good, isn't as dominant as it once was. The problem is that their offensive line was horrible last year, and there's no hope of it improving, thanks to Kyle Long's retirement. Chicago is one of the worst teams in the NFL, so three or four wins is possible. The under eight looks amazing.

July 17 Update: Bears Under 8 -120 is still available at 5Dimes and also at Circa in Las Vegas. I remain very bearish - pun not intended, I swear - on this pick, as Chicago has some major problems that were not addressed this offseason. I also bet the alternative Under 7 +160 at Circa.

Betting 6 Units (-120) at Bookmaker or 5Dimes (locked in as of 5/22/20)
Betting 3 Units (U7 +160) to win 4.8 at Crica (locked in as of 7/17/20)

Green Bay Packers: Under 9 Wins
The Packers are one of the more overrated teams in the NFL. They reached the NFC Championship last year, but didn't belong. Then, instead of upgading their roster, they began rebuilding for the future. I'm not in love with fading Aaron Rodgers, but the Packers should have trouble getting to double-digit wins. Besides, it's not like Rodgers has the best history with his durability.

July 17 Update: The Under 9 +100 is gone. The best vig I could find on the Under 9 is -115 at both BetUS and Circa. I'd still bet two units on that number.

Betting 2 Units (+100) at Heritage (locked in as of 5/22/20)



Indianapolis Colts: Over 8.5 Wins
I love the Colts this year. They already had one of the top rosters in the NFL entering the offseason, and they added Philip Rivers and DeForest Buckner. They could be the team to represent the AFC in the Super Bowl this year.

July 17 Update: Good luck finding an Over 8.5! They're all 9 and 9.5 now, with the best line being Over 9 -110 at DraftKings. I'd go two units on that. By the way, remember to purchase some $DKNG stock, as it will approach $50 soon.

Betting 3 Units (-143) at DraftKings (locked in as of 5/22/20)

Jacksonville Jaguars: Under 4.5 Wins
The Jaguars are the worst team in the NFL, and it wouldn't surprise me if they finished 2-14 or worse. They're tanking for Trevor Lawrence, so it would actually be in the best interest to lose as many games as possible.

July 17 Update: DraftKings still has the same number, which continues to be the best number. Five units on this under.

Betting 5 Units (+103) at DraftKings (locked in as of 5/22/20)

Kansas City Chiefs: Over 11 Wins
The Chiefs must go 12-4 or better for this to win. That may scare off some bettors, but I think it's a good play. Unless Patrick Mahomes suffers an injury, it's going to be very difficult for the Chiefs to lose. Mahomes even missed two games last year, and yet the Chiefs went 12-4.

July 17 Update: My Supercontest proxy, Andy, told me that the Chiefs have gone over every single year that Andy Reid has been their coach. That's remarkable. However, this has risen to 11.5 across the board. It's one unit at most for me at 11.5.

Betting 2 Units (-143) at DraftKings (locked in as of 5/22/20)

Los Angeles Chargers: Under 8 Wins
I'll be pretty surprised if the Chargers have a winning record in 2020. They have a great defense, and their offensive line has improved, but they have no running game or viable starting quarterback at the moment. Will Tyrod Taylor or a raw Justin Herbert win nine games this year? I don't think so.

July 17 Update: There's a very slightly better Under 8 -104 at Bookmaker. Of all my win total bets, I wish I could slice this one in half. If Justin Herbert plays above expectations, I could see the Chargers finishing with a winning record.

Betting 4 Units (-105) at Heritage (locked in as of 5/22/20)

Los Angeles Rams: Under 8.5 Wins
The Rams had a horrible offseason. They failed to upgrade their abysmal offensive line at all, while their defense got worse in the wake of Corey Littleton's departure. The Rams also have to somehow navigate one of the better divisions in the NFL.

July 17 Update: We got a good number, as the best vig I see for this now is -130 at BetUS, though Circa has -125 available. I'd still wager four units on this.

Betting 4 Units (-120) at BetUS or 5Dimes (locked in as of 5/22/20)

Miami Dolphins: Under 6.5 Wins
I'm still tilted that I didn't win the Dolphins Under 5 bet last year. It looked like a lock until they pulled a huge upset over the Patriots in Week 17. Still, it wasn't a loss, and I think the Dolphins will have trouble getting to seven wins. They'll be a playoff contender with a healthy Tua Tagovailoa in 2021, but they'll win 4-6 games in 2020. I'm a bit scared of Brian Flores' great coaching, but Miami should go under this time.

July 17 Update: This win total has dropped to six in many sportsbooks, though Circa has 6.5 -135. DraftKings lists 6.5 -143. I'm not going to increase my position on Miami. This is still a one-unit play.

Betting 1 Unit (-128) at 5Dimes (locked in as of 5/22/20)

New York Giants: Over 6 Wins
This is my favorite over play. The Giants are a dark-horse Super Bowl sleeper of mine, so you have to believe I think they'll win seven or more games. Their roster has improved greatly this offseason, while Daniel Jones will improve exponentially with some experience under his belt.

July 17 Update: The Vegas books all have the Giants at 6.5 now, but you can get Over 6 -115 at Bookmaker. That's slightly better than the 6 -120 we wagered in May. I still love this play for six units, as I think the Giants can go 11-5 this year. I also bet the alternative Over 7.5 +210 at Circa.

Betting 6 Units (-120) at Bookmaker (locked in as of 5/22/20)
Betting 3 Units (O7.5 +210) to win 6.3 at Crica (locked in as of 7/17/20)

Tampa Bay Buccaneers: Over 9.5 Wins
I haven't posted my season previews yet, but I'm thinking about having the Buccaneers win the Super Bowl. They already had a great roster prior to this offseason, and yet they managed to add Tom Brady, Rob Gronkowski and talented tackle Tristan Wirfs to the team. A determined Brady, throwing to Mike Evans and Chris Godwin, will dominate this year, and he shouldn't have any issues getting double-digit victories.

July 17 Update: We got a GREAT number at Over 9.5 -110, as the best online vig I can find is -125 at DraftKings. The Westgate has 9.5 -120 available, so I'm going to increase my position on this by two units. I also bet the alternative Over 11 +210 at Circa.

Betting 4 Units (-110) at DraftKings (locked in as of 5/22/20)
Betting 2 Units (-120) at Westgate (locked in as of 7/17/20)
Betting 2 Units (O11 +210) to win 4.2 at Crica (locked in as of 7/17/20)

For more on the 2020 NFL Win Total Props, check out our YouTube video on the subject, and please hit subscribe to support us!





2020 NFL Betting Props: Super Bowl Odds

Atlanta Falcons: 80/1
I discussed earlier why I like the Falcons more right now. I think they're worth a Super Bowl long-shot pick at 80/1. They have a low floor, but with Matt Ryan, Julio Jones, Calvin Ridley, Todd Gurley and improved offensive and defensive lines, their ceiling is very high as well. Remember, seven teams qualify for the playoffs in each conference, so all the Falcons need to do is reach the postseason, and anything can happen.

Betting 0.5 Units to win 40 at Westgate (locked in as of 7/18/20)

Indianapolis Colts: 28/1
It could be argued that the Colts have the best roster in the NFL. Their offensive line is elite; their running game should be very potent with Jonathan Taylor on the roster; their defensive line is much better with DeForest Buckner; and the secondary has great potential if Xavier Rhodes can rebound. Philip Rivers is a question mark, but he should be much better this year behind his elite blocking unit.

July 17 Update: The Colts have been bet down to 25/1, which is currently available at DraftKings and Caesar's. I'd still wager a unit on this team at that number.

Betting 1 Unit to win 28 at DraftKings (locked in as of 5/23/20)

Kansas City Chiefs: 6.5/1
I felt like both a genius and an idiot during the Super Bowl. I had the 49ers at 40/1 last year, so I was set for a big pay day if San Francisco pulled out the victory. However, I picked the Chiefs to win the Super Bowl on this Web site during the preceding summer. I didn't bet the Chiefs because the odds weren't great, but I suppose I should have done so in order to hedge. I've learned my lesson, so I'm going to bet on the two teams I believe are the most likely to win the Super Bowl. The Chiefs are one of them.

July 17 Update: I can't find anything better than 6/1, which is available on DraftKings and 5Dimes. I'd still put two units on Kansas City for the reason I discussed.

Betting 2 Units to win 13 at Heritage (locked in as of 5/23/20)



New Orleans Saints: 13/1
I love New Orleans' roster. The team has endured horrible luck in recent playoff ventures, but variance has to go their way eventually, right? Barring several key injuries, the Saints will have one of the top records in the NFL this year, so they'll have a chance at a second Lombardi.

July 17 Update: The best online number I can find is 12/1 at DraftKings. Caesar's has 13/1 listed here in Vegas. I still feel strongly about the Saints, just as long as they can avoid the Vikings in the playoffs.

Betting 1 Unit to win 13 at DraftKings (locked in as of 5/23/20)

New York Giants: 145/1
I LOVE the Giants to be a dark-horse sleeper this year. They should be the next of the teams with second-year quarterbacks to make a huge leap. I saw that they were 90/1 in several sportsbooks, but they're a ridiculous 145/1 at Bookmaker. I will wager $100 in hopes of winning $14,500!

July 17 Update: There's still a 145/1 at Bookmaker. This is the best long shot I've seen in a long time.

Betting 1 Unit to win 145 at Bookmaker (locked in as of 5/23/20)

Tampa Bay Buccaneers: 13/1
The Buccaneers are the second team I believe to have the best chance of winning the Super Bowl. I've heard the comparisons of the 2020 Buccaneers being like the first year LeBron James and Chris Bosh joined the Heat, but Tampa Bay has an amazing roster. The team has very few holes and some major strengths (receiving corps, defensive line.) I also trust Bruce Arians to get the most out of his team.

July 17 Update: I'm ashamed for not waiting for something better, as Bookmaker has 14.25/1 listed. I've added another unit to this one, as I believe the Buccaneers are the best team in the NFL.

Betting 2 Unit to win 26 at DraftKings (locked in as of 5/23/20)
Betting 1 Unit to win 14.25 at Bookmaker (locked in as of 7/17/20)

Honorable Mentions: Eagles (23.5/1 at Bookmaker); Steelers (28/1 at DraftKings); Seahawks (30/1 at BetUS)

I'm close to betting these teams, and I may do so based on reports later this summer. If Andre Dillard looks great in practice, Philadelphia will look much better. Ben Roethlisberger at 100 percent will give the Steelers a good chance, but how healthy is he? And with the Seahawks, if they get Jadeveon Clowney back and manage to luck out with Quinton Dunbar staying out of prison, they'll certainly be in the mix for the Super Bowl.

July 17 Update: The Eagles lost Brandon Brooks for the year, so I'm out on them. I still may bet the Steelers if we get good news on Ben Roethlisberger. The same goes for the Seahawks if they re-sign Clowney.

July 25 update: I wanted to bet the Seahawks at 30/1 to win the Super Bowl in the wake of the Jamal Adams trade. Unfortunately, the number is down to 20/1 in most sportsbooks, and even 13/1 at Bookmaker! I think 20/1 is a bit too expensive, given Seattle's offensive and defensive line woes.





2020 NFL Betting Props: Other

New York Giants to win NFC East: +1800
I think the Giants are good enough to contend for the Super Bowl, so they obviously have a legitimate chance to win the NFC East. At 18/1, they're an absolute steal.

July 17 Update: The Giants are 16/1 to win the NFC East at Bookmaker. It's not 18/1, but it's still an insane price.

Betting 1 Unit to win 18 at Bookmaker (locked in as of 5/24/20)

New York Jets to win AFC East: +850
The Bills are the best team in the AFC East, but I expect the Jets to be improved as well. They could take the AFC East if Buffalo suffers some injuries. I think 8.5/1 odds are pretty good for them.

July 17 Update: The Jets are 9/1 to win the AFC East at the Circa, so I wish I had gotten that. It's not a huge difference compared to the 8.5/1 at Bovada, so I'm not going to increase my position.

Betting 0.5 Units to win 4.25 at Bovada (locked in as of 5/24/20)

Tua Tagovailoa: Under 3,200 Passing Yards (-120)
I love Tua Tagovailoa's outlook for 2021 and beyond, but it doesn't seem very feasible for him to play very much as a rookie, given the injury he suffered last year. Also, his own agent, Leigh Steinberg, opined that rookie quarterbacks should sit. Steinberg knows best, given that his best client is Patrick Mahomes, who stood on the sideline in his rookie year and is now the best quarterback in the NFL. Perhaps Tagovailoa makes some miraculous recovery and burns me, but I'll still be shocked if that happens. I'm only betting a unit here because that's the max risk on BetUS.

July 17 Update: I can't find this anywhere anymore, so I hope you bet it with me!

Betting 1.2 Unit to win 1 at BetUS (locked in as of 5/24/20)

Tua Tagovailoa: Under 19 Passing Touchdowns (-120)
Same as above. Again, I'm only betting a unit here because that's the max risk on BetUS.

July 17 Update: I can't find this anywhere anymore, so I hope you bet it with me!

Betting 1.2 Unit to win 1 at BetUS (locked in as of 5/24/20)

Tua Tagovailoa: Under 15.5 Interceptions (-120)
Same as above. If Tua Tagovailoa's not playing, he's not going to throw interceptions. Again, I'm only betting a unit here because that's the max risk on BetUS.

July 17 Update: I can't find this anywhere anymore, so I hope you bet it with me!

Betting 1.2 Unit to win 1 at BetUS (locked in as of 5/24/20)



Josh Jacobs: Most Rushing Yards (16/1)
This seems like good value. The Raiders have a great offensive line, so Josh Jacobs would have a good chance to win the rushing title regardless. Now in his second year, Jacobs will have even more trust from the coaching staff, and with the defense improving this offseason, he'll have more rushing opportunities late in games.

July 17 Update: I can't find this anywhere anymore, so I hope you bet it with me!

Betting 1 Unit to win 16 at BetUS (locked in as of 5/24/20)

Tom Brady: MVP (16/1)
I was looking for a good number on Tom Brady to win MVP, and I think this qualifies. Brady is basically going to be in FU Mode the entire year, as he tries to prove that he can win without Bill Belichick. He'll be paired with the best supporting cast he's had since the Randy Moss and Wes Welker days.

July 17 Update: Tom Brady is still 16/1 to win MVP at DraftKings and also the Westgate. This is my favorite MVP wager.

Betting 1 Unit to win 16 at DraftKings (locked in as of 5/24/20)

Daniel Jones: MVP (100/1)
Here's another long-shot bet I like concerning the Giants. I worry about Saquon Barkley potentially stealing this, but I expect big things from Daniel Jones this year, so the media could give the award to him for his vastly improved play being so "unexpected."

July 17 Update: Daniel Jones is 100/1 at the Westgate and Circa. He's my favorite long-shot MVP pick.

Betting 0.5 Units to win 50 at 5Dimes (locked in as of 5/24/20)

D'Andre Swift: Offensive Rookie of the Year (16/1)
I love D'Andre Swift. I think he's the best running back in the 2020 class. Unless the Lions suffer a torrent of injuries - which is definitely possible - Swift will have every opportunity to be the best rookie this year. Most sites have Swift at 10/1 or so, but DraftKings has him listed at 16/1.

By the way, make sure you buy some DraftKings stock (DKNG). It's currently sub $30 as of this writing, which seems insanely low to me.

July 17 Update: D'Andre Swift is 20/1 at the Westgate, so I wish I had gotten that instead of this 16/1.

Betting 0.5 Units to win 50 at 5Dimes (locked in as of 5/24/20)

Dallas Cowboys to miss the playoffs: +215
July 17 New Addition: I can't believe the Cowboys are +210 to miss the playoffs at Circa. That's insane to me. The Cowboys are a mediocre team with a bad defense and a poor coaching staff. Why are they suddenly a playoff team after losing Robert Quinn and Travis Frederick this offseason?

Betting 3 Units to win 6.45 at Circa (locked in as of 7/17/20)

Seattle Seahawks to make the playoffs: -120
July 17 New Addition: The Seahawks make the playoffs every year with Russell Wilson. Unless Wilson gets hurt, that'll happen again. The -120 price at Circa seems terrific, especially now that there are seven postseason teams per conference.

Betting 3.6 Units to win 3 at Circa (locked in as of 7/17/20)






Advance Spreads


Week 2: Atlanta Falcons at Dallas Cowboys (-7)
I couldn't believe this spread when I saw it. I even asked Jacob what he thought it should be. He said -4.5, so when I told him it was -7, he was just as shocked as I was. The Cowboys are very underrated heading into this year. Their defense stinks, so Matt Ryan should have a great performance in this matchup. At the very worst, he'll be able to get a back-door score to cover.

Betting 4.4 Units on Falcons +7 to win 4 at Westgate



Other Sports Betting Props

I've wagered on the following teams to win the championship in their respective sports. I'll add the winnings/losses to the NBA/MLB pages upon completion of the season.

To be posted later.


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NFL Picks - Oct. 21


2021 NFL Mock Draft - Oct. 21


NFL Power Rankings - Oct. 14


Fantasy Football Rankings - Sept. 9


2022 NFL Mock Draft - May 13


2020 College Football Recruiting Rankings - April 14


2020 NBA Mock Draft - Sept. 27


 





 

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