NFL Overrated and Underrated Teams: Week 5

I’ve posted overrated and underrated NFL teams on my NFL Picks page for a while, but I thought it deserved its own section. I’ll update this page every week during the season as well as periodically during the offseason. Follow me @walterfootball for updates.

Updated Sept. 29, 2025

NFL Overrated Teams:

Carolina Panthers
The Panthers are the hipster pick of 2025. Everyone loves what they did versus the Chiefs, Eagles, and Buccaneers (first matchup) late last year. And yet, they lost those games, even though the Chiefs, Eagles and Buccaneers didn’t put forth any sort of effort into those contests. When the Panthers battled teams focused against them, they were obliterated by the Cowboys and Buccaneers (second matchup). Bryce Young still can’t see over the line of scrimmage, while the defense could still be a bottom-five unit.

The Panthers lost a “close” game to the Cardinals, but were down 27-3. This would have been a blowout had the Cardinals not fallen asleep at the wheel again. In the other games, the Panthers were demolished by the Jaguars and caught the Falcons completely unprepared to play off a big win on national TV. They got back to their real, losing ways against the Patriots.

Cincinnati Bengals
Following Super Bowl LIX, I asked people on X what they thought was the best value bet to win Super Bowl LX. Most people said the Bengals, yet the Bengals have the worst defense in the NFL. They also have issues with their offensive line. Their entire team is just four great fantasy players, and that’s it. They should have lost to the Browns in Week 1; they were outgained, 327-141.

The Bengals are now 2-1, and some may think that they have a chance with Jake Browning because Browning played well at the end of 2023. However, that Bengal team had D.J. Reader, Chidobe Awuzie, and Sam Hubbard. I’m not expecting similar results.

Houston Texans
I’m not sure why the Texans were automatically considered the favorites to win the AFC South entering the season. They have the worst offensive line in the NFL, and it’ll be even worse with two blockers leaving with injuries in the opener. Houston’s defense is excellent, but C.J. Stroud will be under heavy pressure all year.

The Texans lost to the Rams, 14-9, and they also kept the Tampa Bay game close. However, the Buccaneers were down multiple offensive linemen, yet still drove down the field against Houston’s paper tiger defense. The same thing happened against Jacksonville. People don’t realize how bad this team is yet despite the 1-3 record.

Jacksonville Jaguars
The Jaguars are 3-1, but they haven’t played any team above Group C yet. Their opponents have been the Panthers, Bengals (when Joe Burrow got hurt), Texans, and the Nick Bosa-less 49ers. That’s one Group C team, one Group D team, and two Group F teams. I can’t say that’s overly impressive.

Pittsburgh Steelers
The Steelers can’t block or play defense. That’s not a good combination. Pittsburgh is so close to being 1-3 despite playing against the Jets, Seahawks, and Patriots in the first three weeks. They did well against the Vikings, but 6:30 a.m. Pacific time international games can’t be taken seriously, especially when the opponent loses two key offensive linemen early in the game.

San Francisco 49ers
The 49ers are 3-1, but they haven’t played any team above Group C yet. They’ve taken on two Group C teams – Seahawks, Cardinals, Jaguars – and lost to one and barely won two of those games. Their other opponent was a Group F team, and even the Saints had a chance to win on the final drive.

NFL Underrated Teams:

Cleveland Browns
The Browns are 1-3, but they’ve outgained their first two opponents, the Bengals and Ravens, by about 300 yards. Turnovers crushed them – this was a huge problem at Detroit – but those come and go. Cleveland has a stellar defense, a solid offensive line, and some play-makers. You won’t be able to bet on them once they make the switch to Dillon Gabriel, but they’re a viable team to bet on right now, as we saw in the Green Bay game.

Denver Broncos
Sean Payton’s teams always begin slowly, so it’s not a surprise that the Broncos are 1-2 right now. Their two losses have come against Group B teams in games that they lost at the last second. If NFL games were 59 minutes long, Denver could be 3-0 right now.

Kansas City Chiefs
It’s astonishing how so many people are down on the Chiefs, all because they nearly lost so many games last year. This is a different year, and the last time I checked, the Chiefs still have the best quarterback in the NFL and the best coach in the NFL. Kansas City’s big problem last season was the play at left tackle, which seems to have been rectified by the team’s first-round pick, Josh Simmons.

The Chiefs are 2-2, but they’ve lost to two teams I have slotted in the top five of my NFL Power Rankings. They’ll figure things out soon.

New England Patriots
The Patriots could be the 2024 Chargers of 2025. Like the 2024 Chargers, the Patriots received a colossal coaching boost, going from the inept Jerod Mayo to Mike Vrabel. The Patriots also made huge improvements to their offensive and defensive lines, and they also added a dynamic weapon to the backfield in TreVeyon Henderson. Drake Maye, now possessing way more experience, will benefit from Henderson and the improved blocking.

New England lost its opener, but was leading at halftime against an improved Raiders squad. They also lost to the Steelers, but outgained Pittsburgh by a wide margin. Three lost fumbles were why they lost.

New York Jets
The Jets are not a very good football team, but they’re not nearly as bad as some are making them out to be. Justin Fields is an issue, but he can make plays with his legs. I like the Jets as an underrated team because their defense will rebound with Aaron Glenn coaching them rather than the inept interim coach they had last year, while their offensive line looks stout with two first-round talents and a couple of stout interior blockers.

New York just lost to Pittsburgh, but outgained its opponent, 394-271. Had the Jets not fumbled a kickoff return, they likely would have prevailed. The Jets also had a chance against the Buccaneers with Tyrod Taylor, though it must be noted that the Buccaneers were very banged up.

Have any suggestions for overrated and underrated teams? Shout them out to @walterfootball, or see how they’re being used on the NFL Picks page.