NFL Overrated and Underrated Teams: Week 7

I've posted overrated and underrated NFL teams on my NFL Picks page for a while, but I thought it deserved its own section. I'll update this page every week during the season as well as periodically during the offseason. Follow me @walterfootball for updates.

Updated Oct. 19, 2026




NFL Overrated Teams:


Denver Broncos
The Broncos beat the Rams, but they did so illegitimately, which is why they're now an overrated team. They were outgained by 230 yards and needed the officials to bail them out with a bogus pass interference penalty at the end.

Denver was blown out by Kansas City in Week 1, and three of its four victories since then have required second-half comebacks from deficits of seven (twice) and 16 points. In two instances, the Broncos' opponents appeared to wear down in the altitude, allowing Denver to erase those leads. The other was against the Chargers, who were missing their entire offensive line. Denver also beat the Seahawks, but playing a short week in altitude was too difficiult, and yet Seattle nearly won at the end.

The Broncos are 4-2, but they're just 14th in net EPA, which signals that they are very overrated.

Kansas City Chiefs
Many expected the Chiefs to bounce back this year. They're 5-0, but they haven't exactly had tough competition thus far. Excluding their win over the Broncos, which was boosted by an emotional outburst at home, Kansas City's four victories have come against teams that are 2-4, 0-5, 3-3, and 0-6. That's a combined record of 5-18. That's not impressive, especially when considering that they had issues putting away some of those teams.

Minnesota Vikings
The Vikings are 5-0, but four of the teams they've beaten are the overrated Packers, 1-5 Buccaneers, 0-5 Dolphins, and 2-4 Saints. The lone exception was a victory over Chicago in a deluge that favored defense. They've also been outgained in three of their five games.

New York Giants
I've seen too many people confused about the Giants being home underdogs to the Saints to not put them in the overrated pile. The Giants were home underdogs to the Saints because they're worse than the Saints. Just because they were 3-1-1 doesn't mean that they're better than their 1-4 opponent. The Giants have had the easiest schedule in the NFL thus far. Their defense stinks, they benched their best running back for no reason, and they have a backup quarterback starting for them.

Pittsburgh Steelers
I had the Steelers projected for five wins this year (one of which was against Indianapolis.) Mike Tomlin is gone, so he won't be able to enhance the defense anymore. I still think they'll have a good defense, but it won't be as great as it was under Tomlin.

Meanwhile, Mike McCarthy is one of the worst coaches in the NFL, while Aaron Rodgers turns 43 at some point this season. The Steelers lost one of their top offensive linemen in Isaac Seumalo, so Rodgers is going to have to throw even quicker than he did last year. I really have no hope for this team despite their win over the Falcons, who are one of the worst teams in the NFL. They also beat the Bengals, but needed two Cincinnati special-teams gaffes to prevail. They predictably beat the Colts, who were jet lagged from their trip to London.

The Steelers have had an easy schedule thus far, as they've gone up against the Falcons, Browns, Colts, and Buccaneers. They have the 10th-most-difficult schedule remaining.



NFL Underrated Teams:

Carolina Panthers
Upon looking at the EPA numbers, the Panthers really stood out to me as a team that is much better than the public believes. They're ranked in the top 10 of both offense and defense. Only four teams can say that. Offense shouldn't surprise anyone, but the defense has vastly improved. Carolina is getting a ton of pressure on the quarterback and stopping the run effectively.

Cincinnati Bengals
Ask anyone what they think about the Bengals, and they'll say: explosive offense but terrible defense. They don't have a terrible defense anymore, however. They traded for Dexter Lawrence and acquired Bryan Cook to help their stop unit. They added some other pieces as well. They're currently ranked 10th in defensive EPA.

I know the Bengals were coming off two consecutive losses before battling the Dolphins, but they would have beaten the Steelers if they didn't turn the ball over on special teams twice in the fourth quarter. They lost to Jacksonville, but Ja'Marr Chase got hurt in the first half.

Houston Texans
The Texans are 2-4, but they've battled four teams in the top 10 of my NFL Power Rankings. They nearly beat the Bills in the opener. They would have won had Kamari Lassiter not dropped an easy interception in the end zone. Their loss to the Colts was troubling, but their offense bounced back with Nico Collins. Houston is currently ninth in overall EPA, and the defensive rankings should rise now that DeMeco Ryans is calling the plays.

Los Angeles Rams
Everyone thinks the sky is falling for the Rams because they just lost to the Cardinals at home, but they were a blocked field goal away from defeating the Bills, whom many consider to be the best team in the NFL. The Rams were coming off an exhausted overtime game and thought they could just coast versus Arizona. It happens. Despite the loss to the Cardinals, the Rams are still fifth in net EPA, and they'll be getting Myles Garrett back soon.

New York Jets
So many publications considered the Jets to be a bottom-three team entering the year, yet the Jets signed some key veterans this offseason to bolster their defense, including Minkah Fitzpatrick, T'Vondre Sweat, and Demario Davis.

The Jets also have a very good offensive line and some talented playmakers at the skill positions. Sure, Geno Smith sucks - don't tell Mina Kimes - but the point is that the Jets are not one of the worst teams in the league. They're maybe league average or slightly below it. They could easily be 4-2 right now.

Have any suggestions for overrated and underrated teams? Shout them out to @walterfootball, or see how they're being used on the NFL Picks page.

 

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