I've posted overrated and underrated NFL teams on my NFL Picks
page for a while, but I thought it deserved its own section. I'll update this page every week during the season as well as periodically during the offseason. Follow me @walterfootball
Updated Jan. 17, 2022
NFL Overrated Teams:
The Falcons may have the weakest strength-of-victory schedule of all time, beating the Lions, Jaguars, Jets, Dolphins (when they were bad), Panthers, Giants and Saints. Their latest victory over Tim Boyle-led Detroit saw them get outgained by 80 yards. I'm glad to hit the under 7.5 wins wager.
Los Angeles Rams
I think the Rams are overrated. The Vikings just outgained them and averaged more yards per play, but the Rams only won because of a punt return touchdown. Two weeks before that, they beat the Cardinals on national TV. That win looked impressive at the time, but Arizona has fallen apart since. Furthermore, consider that the Cardinals gained nearly 100 yards more than the Rams in that game! The Rams' only impressive wins since Week 8 were against the Jaguars and Seahawks, who just lost to the Bears at home.
The Steelers are 9-7-1, but they were very lucky in many of their wins this year. They beat Baltimore twice, but were outgained on both occasions. The Steelers also recently beat the Titans, but averaged just 3.7 yards per play. They were outgained by Tennessee, 318-168, but were very lucky the Titans committed four sloppy turnovers after losing Julio Jones to injury. It was not a surprise to see the Chiefs dominate the Steelers twice.
San Angeles Chargers
The Chargers were a flashy team in 2021, but they were just a mediocre team (12th in DVOA), and they saw the Broncos average 0.5 more yards per play in their win versus Denver. This was a week after the Texans demlished the Chargers.
NFL Underrated Teams:
I called the Bills the best 8-6 team ever several weeks ago. Heading into Week 15, they were third in overall DVOA and first in pass defense DVOA, yet they were barely holding on to a playoff spot. Most of their losses easily could have been wins. They struggled against the Panthers, but they were missing two offensive linemen, and Josh Allen was banged up with his foot sprain. Allen looked perfectly healthy against the Patriots in the second matchup, which means Buffalo is one of the best teams in the NFL once again. The win over Atlanta was sloppy, yet the Bills still prevailed by 14. It was not a surprise to see Buffalo dominate in the wild card round.
The Bears made so many mistakes on a Monday night late in the year against the Vikings, yet they outgained the Vikings by about 200 yards. They also outgained Minnesota in Week 18. They're going to be much better next year with an upgrade in coaching. Chicago could have beaten the Vikings and Steelers in recent games, and remember that they were up by 10 against the Packers in the second quarter in Week 14.
The Bengals took the 49ers' spot on the underrated list four weeks ago. They lost to the Chargers because of Joe Burrow's finger injury, and then they suffered a defeat versus the 49ers because of numerous mistakes. Despite the drops and muffed punts, they nearly won. In fact, they outgained the 49ers and averaged one more yard per play. It was no surprise they won in Denver despite all the sharp action being on the Broncos. They then trashed the Ravens with Joe Burrow's 525 passing yards, and then they had a great comeback against the Chiefs. Burrow has torched every blitz-heavy team he has faced.
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