NFL Picks Against the Spread: Week 15, 2021

Kansas City Chiefs (9-4) at Los Angeles Chargers (8-5)
Line: Chiefs by 3. Total: 52.5.
Thursday, Dec. 16, 8:20 PM


The Matchup. Edge: Chiefs.

Week 14 Analysis: And here I thought we had experienced enough bad beats for one season. What happened this Sunday was unbelievable. There were times during the Packers-Bears game where I just wanted to call it quits. Unless you handicap NFL games, you can’t understand how frustrating it is to spend countless hours dissecting games each week and then be right about them, only to lose because of inexplicable circumstances. Bad beats happen sometimes, but we’ve experienced a lifetime’s worth of bad beats in one year. I love what I do, but I can’t wait for this season to be over, if I’m being completely honest with you.

I’ll break down all the multi-unit picks once again:

Ravens, 3 units (loss): Bad Beat No. 1. The Browns were up 24-6 at halftime as 2.5-point favorites, yet somehow didn’t score a single point in the second half against a Baltimore defense missing numerous starters. The Ravens, with a backup quarterback, managed to score a garbage-time touchdown to lose 24-22.

Cowboys, 4 units (win): The Cowboys nearly blew this as well, but they held on to their 24-0 lead. I lost the CeeDee Lamb prop however, thanks to Dak Prescott’s unexpected struggles.

Broncos, 3 units (win): I’m kicking myself for not betting more units on a better number earlier in the week.

Giants, 4 units (loss): This wasn’t a bad beat, but it had a feel-bad moment because the Giants had a chance for a back-door cover when Mike Glennon moved the team into the red zone in the final minute of the game. Glennon promptly threw an interception. With all the bad beats happening, why couldn’t we get this one to go our way?

Bills, 5 units (loss): Bad Beat No. 2. The Bills were four-point underdogs that took the game into overtime. They won the coin toss, so the odds of them losing by six were low. Naturally, they lost by six on a Tom Brady deep pass to Breshad Perriman of all people. We lost a similar game earlier in the year when we had the Patriots +3.5 versus the Cowboys, and Dallas ended up winning by six in overtime. As Perriman ran into the end zone, I yelled, “Why does this keep happening?” Little did I know that the day’s bulls**t wouldn’t be quite finished.

Bears, 4 units (loss): Bad Beat No. 3. The Bears were 11.5-point underdogs, and they were up by 10 in the second quarter. Let me repeat that. The Bears were 11.5-point underdogs, and they were up by 10 in the second quarter. They even led at halftime by six. Thanks to a Justin Fields fumble, the Packers scored two quick touchdowns to open the second half, and then Fields banged up his ribs and couldn’t quite score a needed touchdown at the end.

I don’t know what to do anymore. Like I said, I just want to be done with this season. I’ll keep trying my hardest to handicap these games, but I get the feeling that it won’t matter whatsoever.

A couple of things: First, I’m going to remind you every week that my wife is due around Christmas, so there will be a week in December when my picks and/or recaps could be released late. Second, I just published a book called How the 2020 MVP Was Stolen:



This book is not completely about football; it’s more political than anything, so some of you will hate it. In fact, it wouldn’t surprise me if Amazon bans it at some point, so get it while you can. Nevertheless, if you want to support the site, please consider ordering a copy!

SAN ANGELES OFFENSE: We must begin with the Chargers’ offense because they’ve gotten two pieces of bad news in the past 48 hours. One was that Austin Ekeler suffered an injury in the third quarter against the Giants. Given that this is a short week, it’s possible that Ekeler could be sidelined, which means the Chargers will be missing a huge piece of their offense, though Keenan Allen is set to return at least.

The second news item is that left tackle Rashawn Slater is likely to miss this game with a cold. Slater’s absence means that the Chargers will be down two offensive linemen, which will be worrisome against the Chiefs. Kansas City’s defense has improved exponentially in recent weeks. Their pass rush is exceptional, ranking No. 2 in pressure rate. Justin Herbert struggles with pressure like most young quarterbacks, so the Chiefs should be able to rattle him.

Furthermore, Herbert is far weaker when blitzed compared to when not blitzed. The Chiefs send five or more pass rushers frequently, ranking ninth in blitz rate, so Herbert will struggle as a consequence.

KANSAS CITY OFFENSE: The Chiefs just scored 48 points against the Raiders, but don’t take that as meaning that the team suddenly figured out the cover-2 shell. Most of their points came off Raider turnovers. Kansas City’s scoring unit did well versus Las Vegas, but it wasn’t a great performance.

The Chargers pressure the quarterback at a high rate, so Patrick Mahomes will have defenders hounding him in the pocket. However, he should be able to attack the middle of the field, so Travis Kelce figures to play well.

The weakness of the Chargers’ defense is their inability to stop the run. Mahomes may not like it, but his best chance of winning is handing the ball off to Clyde Edwards-Helaire and Darrel Williams.

RECAP: The Chiefs have two big edges in this game. The first is that their excellent pass rush will put tons of pressure on Herbert because his offensive line is missing two starters. The second is that the Chiefs’ high blitz rate will give Herbert problems.

Also, consider that the Chargers will have a negative home-field advantage. Chief fans will highly outnumber Charger fans, so that’ll hurt the Chargers in this game as Kansas City attempts to avenge its loss to San Angeles earlier in the year.

I loved the Chiefs at -3, but not as much at -4. They’re still the side, however, and I’ll be betting a couple of units on them.

Our Week 15 NFL Picks will be posted all day Tuesday. Follow @walterfootball for updates.

THURSDAY NOTES: It sucks that Chris Jones is out, but I’m still on the Chiefs at this reduced price. The Chargers will be missing their top two tackles, and Justin Herbert really struggles against the blitz. I’m likely going to have a couple of units on Kansas City.

FINAL THOUGHTS: I liked the Chiefs a lot more when I thought Chris Jones would play. Jones is the most important player on Kansas City’s defense. The Chiefs will also be without their top coverage linebacker, Willie Gay. It should come as no surprise that the sharps bet the Chargers at +4 and +3.5, but not at +3. I like the Chiefs at -3, and the best line is -3 -113 at Bookmaker.

Las Vegas Raiders (6-7) at Cleveland Browns (7-6)
Line: Browns by 3. Total: 41.
Monday, Dec. 20, 5:00 PM


The Matchup. Edge: Browns.

My overrated-underrated feature was posted in this spot the past couple of years. I thought it would be better if there was less clutter on this page, so I set up a new NFL Overrated and Underrated Teams page that will be updated every Monday. I have overrated and underrated teams listed there, and some may shock you!

CLEVELAND OFFENSE: I mentioned it in the opening paragraphs of this page, but it was so disappointing to see the Browns fail to score a single point in the second half against a Baltimore defense missing numerous starters. Baker Mayfield was terrible, though he didn’t exactly have viable threats at his disposal. Donovan Peoples-Jones played well, but he wasn’t scaring the Ravens out of focusing on shutting down the run.

The Raiders aren’t as good at stopping the run as Baltimore is, but they’re ranked 14th in that department, which is not bad. They’ll play closely to the line of scrimmage as well to contain Nick Chubb. Mayfield will have to make some big plays in order to score points.

Mayfield will definitely see some pressure from the Raider pass rush, as Jack Conklin’s absence is definitely having an impact. However, the Raiders can be beaten in the middle of the field, so Jarvis Landry and Austin Hooper should have solid performances.

LAS VEGAS OFFENSE: Despite having Myles Garrett and Jadeveon Clowney on the defensive line, the Browns are somehow sixth-worst in pressure rate. They don’t get to the quarterback nearly as often as many might suspect, and their inability to do so hurt them – and their bettors – down the stretch when Tyler Huntley engineered a covering drive this past Sunday. Ugh!

The Raiders’ offensive line is miserable, but the Browns won’t be able to take complete advantage of this matchup. Derek Carr will have way more time in the pocket than he did last week versus the Chiefs and their terrific pass rush.

Carr would have a big game if he still had Henry Ruggs as a potent downfield threat, but the Raiders’ offense hasn’t been as dynamic without the former first-round receiver. However, the Browns are also weak at defending the middle of the field, so Darren Waller’s potential return will be a huge boon to the Raiders’ offense.

RECAP: Who are the Browns to be favored by six points? They have just one win of more than three points since Week 4. They barely beat the Lions a few weeks ago. And once again, they scored no points against the Ravens in the second half last week.

I guess I can understand this line if last week’s Raiders result is the primary focus, but that 48-9 score was misleading because the Raiders shot themselves in the foot so many times, committing three turnovers during their first six possessions. The Raiders should play a closer game this week, which is what we’ll likely get because the total indicates that this will be a low-scoring grinder.

Two other things of note: First, my personal spread is Cleveland -3.5. The same goes for last week’s DVOA results. With better luck this week, the Raiders should cover, especially considering the second item, which is that the Browns could be looking ahead to next week’s affair against the Packers.

THURSDAY NOTES: It’s hard to believe this line was once Cleveland -6. The Raiders are now favored because the Browns will be missing countless players due to a cold outbreak. At this point, I have to wonder if there’s value with Cleveland as a home dog. At the very least, if you bet the Raiders at +6, make sure you hedge a bit with a possible middle.

SATURDAY NOTES: This game was moved to 5 p.m. Monday. Perhaps that’ll allow many Browns to return from the virus list, though it’s unclear why everyone can’t play on Saturday. Of those on the nonsense list, we have Baker Mayfield, Case Keenum, Jarvis Landry, Austin Hooper, three offensive linemen (Jedrick Wills, Wyatt Teller, James Hudson), Troy Hill and both safeties (Ronnie Harrison, John Johnson). Nick Mullens may have to start, which would ordinarily make me want to bet the Browns, but not if all of these other players are sidelined. I’ll have an update early Monday afternoon.

SUNDAY MORNING NOTES: No idea who’s playing yet. I’ll have an update Monday afternoon.

FINAL THOUGHTS: Here is who the Browns will be missing today: QB Baker Mayfield, QB Case Keenum, RB Kareem Hunt, WR Jarvis Landry, TE Austin Hooper, OT Jack Conklin, OT Chris Hubbard, OT James Hudson, DT Malik McDowell, DE Jadeveon Clowney, CB Troy Hill, CB Greg Newsome, S Ronnie Harrison. That’s pretty bad, but does it warrant the Browns being a three-point dog when they opened as 6.5-point favorites? They still have Nick Chubb, a strong interior offensive line, Myles Garrett, the linebackers, Denzel Ward and John Johnson. Nick Mullens will start, but he’s a fine backup. Cleveland can keep this game close against the Raiders, who have scored 17, 14, 13, 15 and 9 points in five of the six games since Henry Ruggs was removed from the team. Given that this will likely be a close, low-scoring affair, I’m inclined to go with the underdog, and I believe we’re getting some value. The best line is Cleveland +3 -110 at Bovada.

New England Patriots (9-4) at Indianapolis Colts (7-6)
Line: Colts by 2.5. Total: 45.5.
Saturday, Dec. 18, 8:20 PM


The Matchup. Edge: Patriots.

VEGAS UPDATE: I’ll be posting how the Vegas sportsbooks have done the previous week in this spot. The highest-bet sides were 34-42 in 2020 and 40-31 so far this year. As you can tell, the sportsbooks have taken a beating.

Here are the teams getting the most bets last week:

Seahawks -9

Titans -9.5

Cardinals -3

The highest-bet teams were 2-0* this past week, so the sportsbooks lost money.

Here are the teams getting the most bets this week:

Chiefs -3.5

49ers -8.5

Packers -6.5

Bills -11

Cardinals -13.5

No surprises here at all. The public has beaten the sportsbooks most weeks this year in ATS bets.

NEW ENGLAND OFFENSE: I get the feeling Mac Jones will throw more than three passes in this game. The Patriots prevailed with almost nothing but running plays in a very windy night in Buffalo, but the ideal passing conditions will allow Jones to be a greater part of the offense this week.

Jones will have plenty of time to dissect the thin Indianapolis secondary. The Colts pressure the quarterback at the worst rate in the NFL, and New England has an elite offensive line. Jones should be able to get whatever he wants in this game.

That said, the Patriots will continue to lean on their prolific rushing attack. Damien Harris and Rhamondre Stevenson were unstoppable against the Bills, and they should continue their great running this Saturday night, as the Colts are very weak to opposing ground attacks. Leonard Fournette gained 100 yards on just 17 carries the last time the Colts’ defense was on the field.

INDIANAPOLIS OFFENSE: The Colts figure to have success on this side of the ball as well. The Patriots have a terrific stop unit, but their weakness is defending the middle of the field. Pass-catching running backs and tight ends have hurt them this year, so the Colts can take advantage of that with Jonathan Taylor, Nyheim Hines and Jack Doyle.

These are just three of the weapons Wentz had at his disposal. Wentz spreads the ball around, which helps in this matchup. That’s because Bill Belichick is great at erasing one aspect of an opposing offense. I assume that would be Michael Pittman, but that shouldn’t limit Indianapolis’ offense.

Of course, the Colts will want to establish Taylor early and often on the ground. Taylor won’t do as well on the ground as he would as a receiver out of the backfield. New England has done a good job of stopping explosive running plays this year.

RECAP: Both teams are coming off a bye, but that benefits the Patriots more. Belichick has a tremendous track record with extra time to prepare, which is all too common for elite coaches. Belichick will have a great game plan against the Colts with all the extra time to create the best game plan possible.

Also, there’s reason to believe that the Colts will find a way to lose this game. They squash the terrible teams, but often choke against better competition. I don’t know why that would suddenly change. The sharps like the Colts, but they felt the same way about them when the Titans came to town, and we know how that ended.

Maybe the sharps are seeing something I don’t because they’ve bet Indianapolis heavily. I’m going to side with the Patriots for a small wager.

THURSDAY NOTES: It’s so weird that the other Saturday game is so impacted by the virus, while this one is not. Nothing has changed here, as I still expect the Colts to find some way to lose.

SATURDAY NOTES: Nothing new to add here, aside from pointing out that Damien Harris and Ryan Kelly are out. Harris’ absence is not impactful at all for the Patriots because they have other talented running backs. The Colts will obviously miss Kelly more.

FINAL THOUGHTS: Argh. I was going to bet a +3 -125 at Bookmaker earlier in the day, but I thought with all the sharp action on the Colts, we’d get a better number. As it turns out, there has been other pro money on the Patriots that was waiting for a +3 as well. The best line is now +1.5 -108 at Bookmaker. This will remain a one-unit selection.

Washington Redskins (6-7) at Philadelphia Eagles (6-7)
Line: Eagles by 9. Total: 40.5.
Tuesday, Dec. 21, 7:00 PM


The Matchup. Edge: None.

HATE MAIL: I will be posting hate mail here. We got just a bit this week:

Actually, I’m only going to post one exchange I had, but it’s a very lengthy one. It’s from a common hate mailer whom I was able to troll very effectively. This guy was trying to compare me to someone currently scoring very highly in one of the top contests. I blacked their name out because I don’t want to drag them into this. It began when I told him we could’ve won the Bills game (over the Patriots) had Stefon Diggs not dropped a touchdown:





I can’t tell you how much joy I had constantly typing “one of two.”

WASHINGTON OFFENSE: The spread has risen 2.5 points from the advance line, but only because the Redskins are dealing with numerous issues. Offensively, Taylor Heinicke got hurt against Dallas, while Terry McLaurin suffered a concussion. It’s unclear if either player will be able to take the field against Philadelphia.

If Heinicke manages to return, he likely won’t play very well. First of all, he may not be 100 percent. Second, the Eagles have the No. 8 pressure defense in the NFL, and they don’t blitz. This is exactly how the Cowboys were able to dominate Washington last week. Dallas obliterated the Redskins in the trenches, and the Eagles will be able to do the same thing to a slightly lesser extent.

Furthermore, McLaurin may not be around to threaten the Eagles’ secondary, which will allow Philadelphia to play closer to the line of scrimmage and stuff Antonio Gibson. The Eagles’ defensive weakness is preventing big gains in the middle of the field because of their miserable linebacking corps, but with Logan Thomas out and Ricky Seals-Jones not at full strength, the Redskins can only rely on Gibson and J.D. McKissic as receivers out of the backfield.

PHILADELPHIA OFFENSE: It’s unclear if Jalen Hurts will play either. Hurts injured his ankle in Week 12 and had to sat out the following week when Gardner Minshew impressed against the Jets. Nick Sirianni has announced that Hurts will remain the starter if he healthy, but we don’t know if that’s the case.

If Hurts plays, he won’t have to deal with many of the talented Redskins. Obviously, Chase Young is sidelined, but Washington had so many players in its front seven test positive for an illness. All of those players could miss this game, which would be a huge boon for Hurts.

That said, Hurts may not be able to take full advantage of Washington’s defense. His balky ankle could ruin his ability to scramble, and he doesn’t have the passing accuracy to consistently beat a Redskin secondary that has been torched by deep passes all year.

RECAP: The advance spread on this game was Philadelphia -2.5. The line is now -5. I’m often one to bet against huge line moves, but there’s a legitimate reason why the spread moved so much. The Redskins could be without Heinicke, McLaurin and several defenders.

Before you rush to the ticket window to bet the Eagles, consider that Hurts may not be 100 percent. I wouldn’t want to bet on a team with an injured quarterback.

Despite all the injuries and illnesses, I’m going to stick with the Redskins for now. This spread is to high for what figures to be a low-scoring game. That said, if it sounds like one of the quarterbacks is 100 percent and the other is not, I’ll make the appropriate adjustment.

THURSDAY NOTES: This line has risen because the Redskins will be missing so many players due to the Xi virus. They currently have 36 active players at the moment, so I don’t know how they’re going to be competitive. Allow me to say how insanely stupid the NFL is for testing players. The NFL is ruining its product, as no one will want to bet on games or play fantasy football with this uncertainty. No player has been impacted by this cold strain, so no player should be tested, regardless of whether or not they took some nonsense medication that barely works and completely wears off after four months. I’m sticking with the Redskins because I don’t think the Eagles are good enough to be laying double digits, but I don’t know if I’m betting this game, or any game for that matter.

SATURDAY NOTES: This game was moved to Tuesday because the Redskins have a slew of players on the illness list. Had this game remained Sunday, I would have bet the Eagles at any number because the Redskins were set to start some third-string quarterback who wasn’t even on their roster a couple of days ago. We’ll have to see who is available to play Tuesday. I’ll have an update prior to the game.

SUNDAY MORNING NOTES: Why are both Tuesday games starting at 7? Is the NFL that incompetent? At any rate, I’ll be back Tuesday with an update on this game.

FINAL THOUGHTS: I was disappointed to see that both Case Keenum and Kyle Allen were ruled out. It’s unclear why they can’t play. Nevertheeless, here are all the Redskins who are unavailable tonight: QB Ryan Fitzpatrick, QB Taylor Heinicke, QB Kyle Allen, WR Curtis Samuel, TE Logan Thomas, G Brandon Scherff, C Chase Roullier, DE Chase Young, CB Kendall Fuller, S Kamren Curl. Overall, not too bad; the Redskins got their pass rushers back in time. The two major issues are the offensive line and Garrett Gilbert starting at quarterback. In his one game last year, Gilbert went 21-of-38 for 243 yards, one touchdown and an interception. He also scrambled for 28 rushing yards. That doesn’t sound horrible, so the Redskins will be the play for me. Their pass rush being available is key because the Eagles will be down their top four guards as a result of Landon Dickerson testing positive. I’m going to bet a unit on the +9 -108 at Bookmaker.

Carolina Panthers (5-8) at Buffalo Bills (7-6)
Line: Bills by 14. Total: 43.5.
Sunday, Dec. 19, 1:00 PM


The Matchup. Edge: Panthers.

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BUFFALO OFFENSE: Josh Allen was heroic in his fourth-quarter comeback against the Buccaneers, as he suffered a foot sprain and played through it anyway. It’s not guaranteed that Allen will play in this contest, but he’s considered “day to day.”

Given that the Bills just fell to the No. 7 seed in the playoff race at 7-6, I suspect that Allen will be on the field this Sunday. Whether he’s 100 percent or not is the big issue. At the very least, his mobility will be limited, which he’ll need against the Panthers, who generate consistent pressure on the quarterback. The Panthers have the seventh-ranked pressure rate in the NFL, and Buffalo’s offensive line isn’t very good, so Allen could find it difficult to consistently move the chains in this contest.

The Panthers are at their weakest when trying to defend the run. They’ve been gashed by many teams this year, but the Bills may not be added to that list because they seldom rush the football. They’re just not good at establishing any sort of ground attack, though it would be in their best interest to at least try.

CAROLINA OFFENSE: Allen will probably struggle a bit in this contest, but it won’t be anything compared to what Cam Newton will endure. Newton was once again miserable last week, somehow getting benched twice in the same game. This occurred against the Falcons, who have one of the worst defenses in the NFL.

The Bills, conversely, have an elite defense that has stomped on every quarterback this year not named Tom Brady. They have the league’s No. 1 pressure rate, which will be a problem for the Panthers and their injury-ravaged offensive line. Newton will see tons of pressure, so he’s bound to commit more turnovers.

Like the Panthers, the Bills struggle against the run. And like the Bills, the Panthers don’t run the ball very well, thanks to Christian McCaffrey’s injury. Chuba Hubbard and Ameer Abdullah won’t be able to fully expose Buffalo’s weak ground attack.

RECAP: I hate backing injured quarterbacks, but considering that Allen was able to gut it out at the end last week and nearly lead his team to victory, I have no problem betting on Buffalo in this game.

The Bills should be able to win this game easily. Their top-rated pass rush will rattle Newton behind his leaky offensive line, while Allen will bounce back off a loss. The one concern I have, however, is that the Bills could take the Panthers lightly. They’re coming off an emotional game against the Patriots, and they have to battle the Patriots again next week.

THURSDAY NOTES: Josh Allen was limited in Wednesday’s practice. It’ll be shocking if he doesn’t play, based on how he led a comeback while hurt last week. He may not be 100 percent, which makes betting Buffalo scary, but I wouldn’t want to be on the Panthers either.

SATURDAY NOTES: Josh Allen had a full practice Friday, so he could be 100 percent. He could also be limited, which makes this selection difficult. I’m going to stick with the Bills, but I won’t be betting this game.

SUNDAY MORNING NOTES: There was sharp action on the Bills leading up to -14. However, there was negative news Sunday morning with Jon Feliciano being ruled out, which means the Bills are down multiple offensive linemen. I wouldn’t want to back such a high favorite missing two blockers against a potent pass rush. I even considered a bet on the Panthers, but then I remembered just how bad Cam Newton has been. I’m going to stay on Buffalo, but I would not bet this game, especially at this inflated number.

New York Jets (3-10) at Miami Dolphins (6-7)
Line: Dolphins by 10. Total: 42.
Sunday, Dec. 19, 1:00 PM


The Matchup. Edge: Dolphins.

If you missed it, I have an NFL Betting Props page. I’ll be adding to it as the season progresses!

Also, Confidence Pool Picks will return. They’ll be posted by Wednesday morning each week!

NEW YORK OFFENSE: Zach Wilson was atrocious in last week’s loss to the Saints. I described him as a “person piss drunk at the bar trying to play darts by firing the darts as hard as possible at the board while barely being able to see the numbers.” Wilson looked lost without his top two receivers.

The Dolphins will make him look even worse. Their secondary will limit Wilson’s remaining threats, but it’ll be the pass rush that gives Wilson the biggest problem. The Dolphins blitz at a very high rate, and Wilson is awful against the blitz. When not blitzed, Wilson completes 59.8 percent of his passes at a 6.5 YPA clip. That’s not great, but not terrible. When blitzed, however, Wilson completes 45.1 percent of his passes, while his YPA drops to 4.9.

None of this should be surprising. Wilson has zero pocket awareness, so seeing all of these blitzes will force him into more bad throws and numerous turnovers.

MIAMI OFFENSE: The Dolphins shouldn’t have any trouble scoring on the Jets’ miserable defense. We just saw them have success against this unit in Week 11. In that contest, Tua Tagovailoa nearly completed all of his passes, going 27-of-33 for 273 yards, two touchdowns and an interception.

There’s reason to believe Tagovailoa will be even better in this contest. He’ll be facing the same, terrible defense, but he’ll now have DeVante Parker at his disposal in addition to Jaylen Waddle and Mike Gesicki. Parker returned in Week 13 and looked good in a victory over the Panthers.

There is some concern with the Dolphins not being able to run the ball in this contest because all of their backs, save for David Johnson, have illnesses. However, I don’t think Miami will need to establish a ground attack to have success against the Jets.

RECAP: This spread may seem high, but I think it’s intentional to keep people from betting Miami wildly. It’s not working, as a big chunk of action is on the Dolphins.

I’m going to be on Miami as well. I just don’t see how the Jets can compete. They were able to stay close with the Dolphins in a meeting a few weeks ago, but they no longer have their top receivers available. They also have to start Wilson instead of Joe Flacco. Laugh at Flacco all you want, but he’s a better quarterback than Wilson right now, especially when handling the blitz. Wilson is horrible, and a defensive genius like Brian Flores will have a great game plan for him, especially with extra time to prepare.

Despite the high line, I’ll be betting a few units on the Dolphins. I love fading bad rookie quarterbacks against defensive gurus, and this particular rookie signal-caller won’t have his top threats.

TEASER ADDED: I’m teasing the Dolphins and Steelers. Miami is almost certain to win outright, while the Titans’ limited offense is going to have major issues winning by at least eight.

THURSDAY NOTES: I liked the Dolphins, but now Jaylen Waddle is going to miss this game with a cold. Now, there’s no telling who else on Miami will be infected. This is so stupid.

SATURDAY NOTES: Waddle has been the only player on the Xi virus list thus far, so that’s good news for Miami’s chances of covering this game. I still like the Dolphins quite a bit, and that was even before I learned that the Jets would be missing two tackles (George Fant in addition to Mekhi Becton).

FINAL THOUGHTS: Sharp action on the Dolphins has moved this line across -10. You can still get -10 -115 at Bookmaker, which I’m choosing over the -10.5 lines.

Dallas Cowboys (9-4) at New York Giants (4-9)
Line: Cowboys by 11.5. Total: 44.
Sunday, Dec. 19, 1:00 PM


The Matchup. Edge: Cowboys.

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DALLAS OFFENSE: What is wrong with Dak Prescott? He looked terrible against a Redskin defense that was missing its top four pass rushers and had been struggling to defend deep passes. If it weren’t for the Dallas defensive line dominating the game, the Cowboys would have lost to Washington, as Prescott’s pick-six was nearly the catalyst for Dallas almost blowing a 24-0 lead.

Perhaps Prescott will be better this week. The Giants had a strong pass defense DVOA heading into last week’s contest against the Chargers, but they were blown out of the water by Justin Herbert despite Keenan Allen’s absence. It’s clear that the Giants miss Adoree Jackson, who has been sidelined the past couple of weeks. If Jackson is out again, at least one of the Dallas receivers will go off, as Prescott figures to rebound against a team that doesn’t pressure the quarterback well.

The Giants are also weak when it comes to defending the middle of the field, thanks to Blake Martinez’s injury. This is a great spot for CeeDee Lamb and Dalton Schultz to perform on a high level. Perhaps the Lamb over prop will hit this week.

NEW YORK OFFENSE: The Giants’ receivers must hate Mike Glennon. They’ve dropped six passes in each of the past two games, including one potential touchdown that may have covered the spread in the fourth quarter last week. This was one of two passes Kenny Golladay dropped.

One drop-laden game is an accident; two drop-laden games is a trend. The Giants’ wideouts figure to keep dropping balls, assuming Glennon even has time to potentially connect with them. Glennon is not protected very well, and we just saw Dallas’ monstrous pass rush have its way with the Redskins’ offensive line, which is better than New York’s blocking unit.

I don’t see the Giants having any sort of offensive success. Saquon Barkley figures to be limited as well. Dallas’ run defense numbers look bad, but the team has gotten some reinforcements back from injury, which helped them clamp down on Antonio Gibson this past Sunday.

RECAP: The Cowboys just clobbered one NFC East foe on the road, and they should be able to do the same thing to another one. I don’t think the Giants have what it takes to stay competitive in this game. Dallas will dominate the trenches, completely limiting the Giants’ offense. The Cowboys will also attack the middle of the field effectively, which is the Giants’ weakness.

Prescott’s recent struggles bother me a bit, but the Cowboys should still be able to win this game in a blowout.

THURSDAY NOTES: Adoree Jackson has tested positive for the Xi virus. The Giants’ usually strong secondary hasn’t quite been the same without him, so if he misses this game, that bodes well for Dallas’ offense, even if Tyron Smith is sidelined.

SATURDAY NOTES: Things could change if players test negative and can end up playing, but the Giants are missing several players in their secondary, which doesn’t bode well for them. As it stands now, I love the Cowboys.

FINAL THOUGHTS: The sharps have stayed away from this game, but it’s still a good sign that they haven’t bet the Giants. Dallas should be able to dominate the Giants, who are missing some key players with the virus. The best line is -11.5 -110 across the board.

Tennessee Titans (9-4) at Pittsburgh Steelers (6-6-1)
Line: Steelers by 1. Total: 43.5.
Sunday, Dec. 19, 1:00 PM


The Matchup. Edge: None.

If you’ve followed this site for a while, you might remember that I like to respond to my spam mails. It all started numerous years ago, when a man named Jon Wire from the “United Bank of Africoan” promised me an ATM card of some sort, so I responded as a man named Mister Compassion Chuck Norris, who was raised by wolves. The following season, I received e-mails from Richard Held and Loon Bruce, who told me I won a Facebook Award, which comes with a “lump sum pay out of (750,000.00 GBP).” Pretending to be Matthew Millen Kim, I sent out my application and fake money.

I’ve been messing around with spammers ever since, pretending to be Harvey Weinstein, Joe Biden, Ramsay Bolton and Walter White. I have plenty of Spam Mails this year, so check them out if you want to see me screw with spammers. I’ll have new ones every week this year!

TENNESSEE OFFENSE: I can’t remember the last time the Steelers have been this bad against the run, but they’ve been gashed by everyone in recent weeks. Sure, Dalvin Cook is a stud, but Pittsburgh couldn’t even contain Devonta Freeman the prior week!

D’Onta Foreman and Dontrell Hilliard aren’t the most fearsome backs in the NFL, but they’ve been solid the past couple of games. Foreman has a dream matchup, as the Titans look to play keep-away from the opposing offense, much like they did versus Jacksonville.

That said, the Titans have a limited receiving corps, with Julio Jones not yet 100 percent. The Steelers won’t have to be distracted by Tennessee’s aerial attack, so they’ll at least be able to focus on putting the clamps on Foreman.

PITTSBURGH OFFENSE: Ben Roethlisberger had a rough time against the Vikings until garbage time that turned into a legitimate chance to win. Earlier in the game, Roethlisberger was harassed by the league’s No. 3 pass rush, and he couldn’t attack the middle of the field because of Eric Kendricks’ return from injury.

The Titans have a decent pass rush, but they’re ranked in the middle of the pack in regard to getting to the quarterback. Roethlisberger will have more time in this contest, and he’ll have way more success over the middle of the field. Pat Freiermuth will do more than just drop the potential game-tying touchdown.

The Steelers won’t have as much success running the ball, however, given that the Titans have a top-10 ground defense. Then again, it’s not like Najee Harris will have much room to run anyway.

RECAP: Someone needs to explain to me why the Titans are favored by two in this game. I made this line Pittsburgh -1.5. The computer model has it at Pittsburgh -1. Last week’s DVOA numbers agree with the computer model.

I know the Steelers looked like garbage for three quarters on national TV, but they were battling an underrated Minnesota squad that is better than this version of Tennessee. The Titans, in their past three games, lost to the Texans, got blown out at New England, and beat the Jaguars while averaging 3.8 yards per play.

This is do-or-die for the Steelers. This game means so much more to them than it does to the Titans, who can afford to take a loss before A.J. Brown returns from injury.

THURSDAY NOTES: There’s some sharp money coming in on the Steelers, pushing them to pick ’em. I still love them in this spot, but we have to wait and see if anyone gets “sick.”

SATURDAY NOTES: The sharps continued to bet the Steelers, who are now favored. The Titans are more injured than expected – they’re missing Rodger Saffold and a couple of cornerbacks – so Pittsburgh continues to look very appealing.

FINAL THOUGHTS: I’ve been thinking about this game a lot Sunday morning, and I’ve come to the conclusion that I’ve been too high on the Steelers. They’ve kept three of their previous four games close, but they were way down in all three before getting garbage-time points to keep the Chargers and Vikings games close. As for the Baltimore contest, they needed an unkindness of Ravens to get hurt. There was sharp action on the Steelers early in the week, but other pro money came in on the Titans on Sunday. I’m going to drop this to two units. The best line is -1 -105 at Bovada.

Houston Texans (2-11) at Jacksonville Jaguars (2-11)
Line: Jaguars by 5.5. Total: 40.
Sunday, Dec. 19, 1:00 PM


The Matchup. Edge: None.

Video of the Week: I recently posted a mashup between Twin Peaks and The Simpsons. This time, let’s mix the former with Saved by the Bell:



All they did was put one of the Twin Peaks songs into this scene, but it works extremely well!

JACKSONVILLE OFFENSE: Trevor Lawrence keeps getting worse. He made some nice third-down conversions early last week, but ultimately threw four interceptions. That was his career-worst mark, as Lawrence continues to regress with the incompetent Urban Meyer trying his best to ruin Lawrence’s career.

Lawrence threw three interceptions against the Texans back in the season opener. Houston doesn’t get much pressure on the quarterback, and it gets poor play from its defensive backs, but Lawrence could be confused by Lovie Smith’s schemes. Smart defensive coaches tend to have the edge against rookie signal-callers, and that was the case in the Week 1 battle between these teams.

The Jaguars could make things easier for Lawrence by pounding the ball with James Robinson. The Jaguars seemed to forget that Robinson ws even on the roster last week, as they gave him only four carries. The Texans have a miserable ground defense that just failed to contain Rashaad Penny, so Robinson should be able to rebound.

HOUSTON OFFENSE: This past Sunday marked the first time Davis Mills battled a team with a pass defense DVOA in the bottom half. Mills was miserable in earlier games, but was battling top aerial defenses. That changed last week, which would explain Mills’ sudden success. Jacksonville also has a bottom-tier pass defense DVOA, so Mills won’t be incompetent like he was in games versus the Bills and Cardinals.

The Seahawks, however, don’t get to the quarterback nearly as well as the Jaguars do. Jacksonville has a solid pass rush that should be able to apply pressure on Mills, given that Houston’s offensive line is currently missing its best linemen due to injury.

RECAP: There are conflicting matchups in this game. Do we fade Lawrence going up against a smart defensive coordinator in Lovie Smith? Or do we side with the Jaguars’ excellent pass rush versus Houston’s anemic offensive line?

I don’t know. I really don’t. I’ve flip-flopped on this game on numerous occasions. It would help to know which team will be trying harder, as both squads could easily quit on their respective coaches. I’m going to side with the Jaguars because they might be more motivated in a revenge angle after being humiliated in Week 1, but there’s no way I’m betting this game.

THURSDAY NOTES: The sharps liked the Jaguars before the Urban Meyer firing. The sharps have loved the Jaguars after the Urban Meyer. This line is now up to -5. That may seem high, but Jacksonville will play so much better with Meyer gone.

SATURDAY NOTES: I never thought I would do this earlier in the week, but I’m going to bet on the Jaguars, provided the Texans are missing everyone on their Xi virus list. Check out the difference between the two teams regarding the players on the opening roster who have been cut, injured or placed on the virus list:



Obviously, this is a big edge to the Jaguars. Also, the Meyer firing is likely to make the Jaguars way more enthusiastic about playing this game.

FINAL THOUGHTS: The sharps have been slamming the Jaguars up to -6 in some books, which is not a surprise. Since my Saturday notes were posted, the Texans lost another key defender. They’re missing so many players, so Jacksonville still looks very appealing at this price. You can get -5.5 at FanDuel and BetUS.

Arizona Cardinals (11-2) at Detroit Lions (1-11-1)
Line: Cardinals by 13. Total: 48.
Sunday, Dec. 19, 1:00 PM


The Matchup. Edge: None.

The Adventures of Tom Brady’s Haircuts are complete. They may return in the future, but I had to stop them for now.

By the way, my other book is still available as well:



In this book, I talk about the top NFL Draft busts, and what would’ve happened had each team gone a different route. Also, I discuss why Roger Goodell has banned us from the NFL Combine.

ARIZONA OFFENSE: It was frustrating to watch the Cardinals shoot themselves in the foot repeatedly Monday night. It began early when Kyler Murray missed A.J. Green for a deep touchdown, and the mistakes persisted throughout the night. Arizona had two trips into the red zone that resulted in no points!

A major reason why the Cardinals committed so many errors was because of the pressure Aaron Donald applied on Murray. Donald was relentless. He notched three sacks and some of his other pressures forced bad passes. Luckily for Murray, he won’t have to worry about that in this contest. The Lions don’t have any sort of dominant presence in their defense, which has been gashed by most teams this year.

The Lions have an injury-ravaged secondary and a run defense that gets trampled on a weekly basis. I don’t see how they will contain all of Murray’s threats, all while trying to slow down James Conner and Chase Edmonds.

DETROIT OFFENSE: The Lions also made mistakes in the red zone last week, though that was expected. Detroit was missing numerous players on offense, including both running backs and T.J. Hockenson. The result was a meager 10-point output in which the Lions didn’t generate anything following halftime.

Though the Lions should have D’Andre Swift and Hockenson back this week, there’s no guarantee that they’ll have offensive success. Detroit loves to attack the middle of the field with those two players, as well as slot receiver Amon-Ra St. Brown. The Cardinals, however, defend the middle of the field exceptionally well, so they’ll be able to erase Detroit’s best offensive aspect.

The Cardinals are weak to outside receivers, as well saw Monday night when some of the Ram wideouts torched them for big gains. The Lions, however, can’t fully take advantage of this because they have the worst outside receivers in the NFL.

RECAP: One piece of advice I’ve gotten regarding handicapping NFL games is that if you pick a double-digit favorite, make sure they’re motivated. I believe the Cardinals will be after losing on national TV. They need to keep winning to maintain control of the division. They could also reclaim the No. 1 seed if they win their final four games.

The Lions, meanwhile, have gotten their teeth kicked by motivated teams this year. The Bengals and Eagles went into Detroit and stomped all over them. Conversely, the Ravens, Browns and Vikings all struggled versus Detroit, but they were all flat.

I like the Cardinals to bounce back with a huge win, but this line is high, even when compared to the advance spread of -12. I don’t get why this line moved 1.5 points based off last week’s action. It’s not a huge deal, but we’re getting no value with Arizona.

THURSDAY NOTES: DeAndre Hopkins missed Wednesday’s practice. There’s legitimate concern that he’ll miss this game, but that won’t impact my decision to pick Arizona.

SATURDAY NOTES: Both of these teams are dealing with major injury woes. The Cardinals won’t have DeAndre Hopkins and Rodney Hudson, while the Lions will be missing T.J. Hockenson, both of their top running backs and all three of their best edge rushers. I’m sticking with Arizona, but for no units.

FINAL THOUGHTS: I’m still not touching this game, and the sharps aren’t either. If you want to bet the Cardinals, the best line is -13 -105 at Bovada.