NFL Picks Against the Spread: Week 11, 2023

Cincinnati Bengals (5-4) at Baltimore Ravens (7-3)
Line: Ravens by 4. Total: 46.
Thursday, Nov. 16, 8:15 PM


The Matchup. Edge: None.

Week 10 Analysis: Week 10 Sunday was the most tilting day of football I’ve ever had in my life. It began Sunday morning when I got screwed out of the Michael Pittman first touchdown prop bet because the officials ruled him down inches of the goal line. Later in that game, I was in first place in the Reignmakers contest, with the top prize being $20,000. On the very last play when Bailey Zappe threw an interception, I dropped from first to fifth because those with Colts defense at captain moved ahead of me. As you can imagine, the difference between first and fifth was enormous.

Then, the afternoon games happened. It began with one big loss in the early slate, but I also lost a unit on the Packers +3.5 when the result was four. The late afternoon slate was abysmal, aside from the Detroit pick. I need to vent, so I’ll once again break down all the 3+ unit picks each week:

Titans, 5 units (loss): So, Will Levis torched the Falcons and played well against the Steelers, but had a meltdown against the NFL’s worst defense? How does that make any sense?

Falcons, 5 units (loss): It was no surprise that the Falcons failed on the two-point conversion to go up three at the very end. That had a zero-percent chance because I bet Atlanta. The Falcons pass rushers then had Kyler Murray dead to rights, which would have given the Falcons a front-door field goal opportunity after a turnover on downs. Of course, Murray escaped out of pressure somehow and ran for a first down. Murray even said he didn’t know how he got out of it.

Lions, 3 units (win): Our only multi-unit win of the week. At least we had one.

Seahawks, 3 units (loss): The Seahawks were up by a touchdown twice in the second half, which would have been good enough to cover, but their highly ranked defense couldn’t get off the field versus Sam Howell. I get surrendering one touchdown late, but two!?

Jets, 4 units (loss): The Jets outgained the Raiders, 365-274, and averaged 1.4 more yards per play, but they naturally found a way to lose.

Broncos, 5 units (win): It was nice to end Week 10 on a positive note. I wrote in the final thoughts that I came to a realization after reviewing every single pick I made Sunday night and Monday morning. I’m excited about the second half of the season.

I want to include a new segment here, where I list “obvious” picks in hindsight that I did not bet:

Texans +6.5: This line crashing below six was a sign that the Texans were the right side. I just didn’t want to buy into the C.J. Stroud hype.

Cowboys -17: I even talked about betting this, but didn’t pull the trigger. I’m not in a good place right now. Or, at least I wasn’t before my yearlong review. Like I said, I’m excited about the second half of the season.

If you haven’t visited the site in a while, you may have noticed the new look. Yes, after nearly two decades, we’ve finally re-designed our site to be more modern. This was not done on a whim, but rather out of necessity because of what occurred during the 2023 NFL Draft. Our site crashed during the entire first day of the draft, which was disastrous for our revenue stream because we make more money during the draft than any other time. The site crashed because a line of code conflicted with the old format of the site, so we had to transition to this new look.

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CINCINNATI OFFENSE: The Bengals couldn’t be stopped offensively in games against the 49ers and Bills, but they were inept for most of the afternoon against the Texans. They scored on their opening drive, but for the next two quarters, they couldn’t do anything but punt. They caught fire at the end, but it was too little, too late.

There are two reasons why the Bengals suddenly became incompetent on this side of the ball. One is that they were caught looking ahead to this game. The other is that their receivers just weren’t healthy. Tee Higgins was sidelined, while Ja’Marr Chase wasn’t 100 percent because of a back injury. Though Higgins is likely to be out again, Chase will be better in this game. The matchup is rough on paper, but there’s no stopping Joe Burrow and his receivers when they’re clicking.

Speaking of matchups, the Ravens are weaker to the run than the pass, so Joe Mixon could have a decent game, picking up where Jerome Ford left off last week. Baltimore is also weaker to receiving backs, and Mixon can certainly do some damage while catching the ball.

BALTIMORE OFFENSE: The Bengals had no chance at stopping C.J. Stroud last week, but they had performed better defensively in prior weeks. The reason for the decline could be the same as the one suggested above; Cincinnati just wasn’t mentally focused to battle a Texan team they don’t really care about because they had such an important game against the Ravens on the horizon.

The Bengals can get decent pressure on the quarterback, which is something we didn’t see in the previous game. In addition to the lack of focus, the Bengals also missed Sam Hubbard, who might be able to return Thursday. If so, Cincinnati will have a good chance to pressure Lamar Jackson. They’ll need to get as much heat on him as possible because they struggle to defend scrambling quarterbacks. Entering Week 10, only four teams allowed more rushing yards to signal-callers.

Cincinnati struggles to defend the run in general. The team is in the bottom 10 of ground defense, and we just saw it surrender 150 rushing yards to Devin Singletary. Thus, Baltimore’s rushing attack figures to be potent in this contest.

RECAP: The Bengals used to own the Ravens. That quietly changed when they transitioned to a new defensive coordinator. Baltimore’s old defensive coordinator used to blitz often, which was asking for trouble against Burrow. The Ravens now don’t blitz nearly as often, so Burrow hasn’t had as much success against them. Meanwhile, the Bengals tend to struggle versus scrambling quarterbacks, which obviously bodes poorly against Jackson.

The Ravens would look a good play with those things in mind, but getting more than a field goal with Burrow is appealing because he and his receivers are so great that they can make any margin a tight one. Provided that both Chase and Higgins don’t miss this game, I’m going to pick the Bengals to cover. In the unlikely event that both are available, I may even consider betting a unit or two on Cincinnati, provided that this line remains above -3.

Our Week 11 NFL Picks will be posted all day Tuesday. Follow @walterfootball for updates.

THURSDAY THOUGHTS: Tee Higgins and Sam Hubbard are out for Cincinnati, but in a mild surprise, Trey Hendrickson will play. The Ravens, meanwhile, got some bad news with Ronnie Stanley and Marlon Humphrey ruled out. I’ll be betting a unit on the Bengals after having no interest earlier.

NFL PLAYER PROPS: I bet Dalton Schultz against the Bengals last week. I’m going to keep attacking Cincinnati’s defense versus tight ends with the Mark Andrews over 58.5 receiving yards prop. Andrews was hurt at the beginning of the season, but has since eclipsed 58.5 receiving yards in five of his previous seven games, and now, he gets a very favorable matchup. The best vig is -114 at FanDuel. I’m also going to bet a tiny bit on his first touchdown prop. The best number for that is 10/1, also at FanDuel. You can Get $200 in bonus bets from FanDuel by clicking the link.

FINAL THOUGHTS: I don’t have much interest in this game. I have only a slight lean on the Bengals, but I’m not a fan of them being a public dog. I still think that the Ravens by three and Bengals by three are the two most likely results in some order. The sharps have not weighed in on this game. The best line is +4 -110 at Caesars and PointsBet. You can Get up to $1,000 in second-chance bets at PointsBet by clicking the link.

Pittsburgh Steelers (6-3) at Cleveland Browns (6-3)
Line: Browns by 2. Total: 34.5.
Sunday, Nov. 19, 1:00 PM


The Matchup. Edge: Browns.

My overrated-underrated feature was posted in this spot the past couple of years. I thought it would be better if there was less clutter on this page, so I set up a new NFL Overrated and Underrated Teams page that will be updated every Monday. I have overrated and underrated teams listed there, and some may shock you!

CLEVELAND OFFENSE: We saw something very positive out of the Steelers last week in their 23-19 victory over the Packers. They were able to shut down the run quite well, outside of one long burst by A.J. Dillon. Aaron Jones was completely held in check, which forced “No Cookie” Jordan Love into unfavorable situations.

Restricting Jones was massive because the Steelers had struggled against the run all year. Cameron Heyward’s return finally paid dividends, apparently. If this was not a fluky result, this will help the Steelers immensely in the second half of the season. That will certainly be the case in this matchup because Pittsburgh can severely limit Cleveland’s offense if it forces Deshaun Watson into obvious passing situations.

The Browns, of course, have major problems on the offensive line. They are down their top two tackles, which will be very problematic against the Steelers’ great pass rush. Watson will constantly be hounded, which will undoubtedly create some turnovers, like the pick-six we saw to open last week’s game.

PITTSBURGH OFFENSE: Not only did the Steelers stop the run last week, they were also able to establish their ground attack, as both Najee Harris and Jaylen Warren had great games. However, there’s a colossal difference between the Green Bay and Cleveland run defenses. Only seven teams have surrendered fewer rushing yards to running backs.

Kenny Pickett didn’t have to do much versus the Packers, but that won’t be the case in this matchup. He’ll have to deal with Cleveland’s great pass rush, which will be a huge issue because he isn’t protected very well. Like T.J. Watt, Myles Garrett could be in for a big game.

Despite the pass-protection issues, there’s a chance the Steelers can hit some big plays. The Browns have surrendered so many long touchdowns this year, including one to George Pickens in Week 2. Diontae Johnson was not available for that game, so the Browns will have to worry about him as well.

RECAP: How long can the Steelers keep doing this? They’ve been outgained in both net yards and yards per play in all but two games this year, yet they’re 6-3. They just keep finding ways to win ugly games, which, in fairness, is a Mike Tomlin brand of football.

Speaking of Tomlin, he’s great as an underdog. He’s 56-31 against the spread in that role, which is incredible. It’s hard not to like him, especially given that the Browns are coming off such an emotional, come-from-behind victory against Baltimore. Motivational angles have been very difficult to decipher this year, but it seems likely that we won’t be getting Cleveland at its best.

Having said that, I don’t completely trust the Steelers. Cleveland’s defensive line has a great matchup edge against their front. That really bothers me, though the Browns’ missing tackles will certainly hurt them against Pittsburgh’s pass rush. This will be a wager of about two units.

THURSDAY THOUGHTS: I’m kicking myself. On the After Dark Show with Jacob Camenker, I said that I would lock in the Steelers +4 because there’s a chance Deshaun Watson wouldn’t play. Watson has been ruled out for the year, but I forgot to make the wager! The Browns are now -1 with Dorian Thompson-Robinson projected to start. Call me crazy, but I like the Browns now. I can’t imagine Thompson-Robinson performing like he did in Week 4. I don’t know if I’ll be betting this game because Cleveland is missing its top tackles, but I may have a small play on Cleveland.

SATURDAY NOTES: I’m going to bet the Browns for two units. This would be a bigger bet if Cleveland didn’t have offensive line issues with two or three missing tackles, but the Steelers will be down two linebackers and two safeties, so I have to wonder how they’re going to defend the middle of the field.

PLAYER PROPS: Elijah Moore has the best matchup in this game, with the Steelers surrendering the fourth-most fantasy points to slot receivers. Playing with backup quarterbacks, Moore has registered 20, 19, 59, and 30 yards. That’s 2-of-4 at over 27.5 yards, and that doesn’t even factor in the matchup, or the fact that Dorian Thompson-Robinson was far less equipped to play in his first start. The best vig is -114 at FanDuel. You can Get $200 in bonus bets from FanDuel by clicking the link.

FINAL THOUGHTS: No surprise inactives for either team, while Pat Freiermuth will be active for the Steelers. There’s no sharp action on either side. I like the Browns a bit. The best line is -2 -108 at Bookmaker.

Arizona Cardinals (2-8) at Houston Texans (5-4)
Line: Texans by 5.5. Total: 48.
Sunday, Nov. 19, 1:00 PM


The Matchup. Edge: None.

VEGAS UPDATE: I’ll be posting how the Vegas sportsbooks have done the previous week in this spot. The highest-bet sides were 34-42 in 2020 and 48-37 in 2021. The highest bet sides were 32-35-1 last year, and they are now 18-17 ATS.

Here are the teams getting the most bets last week:

Cowboys -17.5

Seahawks -6

Lions -3

The public hit two of its three top plays, missing only on Seattle.

Here are the teams getting the most bets this week:

Cowboys -10.5

Giants +10

Dolphins -9.5

49ers -10

Jaguars -6

Lions -10

So many double-digit favorites this week. It’s a public bettor’s wet dream!

ARIZONA OFFENSE: It was unclear how Kyler Murray would perform in his first game back from his torn ACL. I’d say he did pretty OK. Murray, despite the ACL tear, showed great mobility when he somehow escaped a couple of sure sacks and ran for a first down to help set up the winning score against Atlanta.

Murray will only improve moving forward, though the offensive line will continue to be a concern until everyone returns from injury. Arizona missed two blockers last week, which could be an issue against a Houston defense near the top 10 in pressure rate.

Fortunately for Murray, he’ll be able to lean on James Conner. The Texans, already poor against the run, will be in even worse shape against it because Denzel Perryman has been suspended. Perryman was one of the team’s top run defenders, so he’ll sorely be missed.

HOUSTON OFFENSE: I feel bad for Carolina’s coaches. They were so excited when the team moved up for C.J. Stroud. Then, they were told by management that Bryce Young would be the pick, to their bewilderment. It just goes to show that management should probably be in agreement with the coaching staff before making a monumental trade, as Stroud has been so great for Houston that there are calls for him to be MVP!

I’m not there quite yet on the MVP talk, but if the Texans keep winning, it’ll be difficult to argue against because there isn’t a clear-cut favorite for that award at the moment. Stroud will have a great opportunity to pad his stats against the Cardinals, who have an atrocious secondary. They particularly struggle against outside receivers, so this could be a huge Nico Collins game.

The Texans should be able to run the ball well, too. Arizona has surrendered the fourth-most rushing yards to running backs in the NFL this year, and Devin Singletary just had a great game versus Cincinnati.

RECAP: Everyone suddenly wants to bet the Cardinals. Arizona is a massive public underdog at the moment, receiving more than two-thirds of the betting action despite what Houston did to the Bengals last week.

The argument can be made that the Texans only beat the Bengals because Cincinnati was looking ahead. There’s a chance this might be the case, but then again, the Texans outgained the Bengals, 544-380, averaging 1.1 more yards per play. The week before, the Texans barely beat the Buccaneers, but they had the yardage dispartiy in their favor, 496-332. They also averaged 8.0 yards per play, compared to 5.3 for the Buccaneers.

The Texans might be better than people think they are, and if that’s the case, they shouldn’t have any issues with the Cardinals. Like I said, everyone wants to bet Arizona, but people forget how bad the Cardinals defense is. There’s a chance Murray just keeps this game close with a back-door cover, or something, but I’m going to side with the much better team.

THURSDAY THOUGHTS: I mentioned that the Cardinals were a public dog earlier, but I think I may have been wrong about that because it looks like there’s a decent chunk of sharp action on Arizona. The Texans had a fair number of starters miss Wednesday’s practice, so Arizona is looking more appealing.

SATURDAY NOTES: I had no interest in betting this game beforehand because the spread was so unappealing for Houston, but I didn’t want to back a very crappy Arizona squad. However, Will Anderson was downgraded to DNP on Friday. I would consider Arizona +6 if Anderson is out.

PLAYER PROPS: Tank Dell’s over 55.5 receiving yards prop looks great. With Nico Collins and Noah Brown banged up, Dell should be featured extensively. The Cardinals allow the fourth-most fantasy points to outside receivers. The best number is over 55.5 -115 at Caesars.

FINAL THOUGHTS: Nothing to report as far as sharp action is concerned, while the public continues to bet Arizona heavily. If you want to bet the Texans, the best line is -5.5 -107 at Bookmaker.

Los Angeles Chargers (4-5) at Green Bay Packers (3-6)
Line: Chargers by 3. Total: 44.
Sunday, Nov. 19, 1:00 PM


The Matchup. Edge: None.

HATE MAIL: We’re going to post hate mail here this year. This is from renowned bozo John Cappricotti, who famously said that you can bet any team at any line because the spread doesn’t matter:





I love how John Cappricotti just admitted that he can’t write at all; only speak.

Despite possessing zero logic or critical thinking skills, John Capricotti thinks he can beat me at an IQ test, based on football handicapping prowess:



I think he just lost the IQ test. I quite literally said that monkeys are great handicappers, and he responded that he bets that monkeys don’t lose 11 units in one day. Yes, I know, I just said they don’t because they are great handicappers. JFC, this guy.

Anyway, I had an interaction with someone who talked about someone who was at a mostly peaceful protest being arrested:







I swear, the siren song of morons like JahClintBillionz is to call anyone racist. Here’s the trick: Just call them racist back. They won’t know how to respond because they don’t possess the brain power to handle such a response.

SAN ANGELES OFFENSE: The Packers looked pathetic on both sides of the ball during Sunday’s loss to the Steelers. Their run defense was especially poor. Najee Harris and and Jaylen Warren looked like Emmitt Smith and Barry Sanders against them, bursting for huge gains on nearly every play.

I’d say this matchup favors the Packers because their run-funnel defense may not be challenged very much. The Chargers don’t run all that well with Austin Ekeler and Joshua Kelley anyhow, as they get Ekeler more involved as a receiver out of the backfield. However, I didn’t think the Steelers would have success on the ground versus the Packers, and they certainly did, so perhaps Ekeler and Kelley will be able to pick up chunks of rushing yardage.

The Packers have been much better against the pass than the run. Kenny Pickett and his receivers couldn’t get anything going against them, though that’s not saying much. The Packers can get good pressure on opposing quarterbacks, and Justin Herbert’s protection is mediocre. However, the Packers haven’t been very good against slot receivers, so this will bode poorly against Keenan Allen.

GREEN BAY OFFENSE: The Packers also struggled on this side of the ball against the Steelers. They failed to take advantage of Pittsburgh’s run defense, while both “No Cookie” Jordan Love and Christian Watson both made crucial mistakes.

The one game the Packers have won since Week 3 saw them rush the ball well with Aaron Jones against the Rams. Jones couldn’t run on the Steelers, and he could have similar problems against a Charger defense that had made great improvements against the run for the most part. The Chargers were woeful against David Montgomery and Jahmyr Gibbs last week, but I’d chalk that up to Detroit’s elite offensive line. The Packers certainly don’t have that level of blocking.

With the running game unlikely to produce much, Love will have to do a lot against a Chargers pass rush that will hound him. The Chargers have some serious holes in the secondary, but Love lacks the talent, receivers and protection to exploit this liability. Looks like Aaron Rodgers was right when he famously said that Love has no cookies.

RECAP: This is not an appealing line. I think the Chargers are better than the Packers, and I want to pick them, but I can’t get to them being three-point favorites in Green Bay. I made this line Chargers -2.5. The EPA metrics are less optimistic, labeling this as a pick ’em.

I just can’t trust the Chargers as a field goal favorite on the road. But I like the Packers even less in general. They are a garbage team, and their only cover since Week 3 has been against Brett Rypien. I could argue that the Packers deserved to cover against the Steelers last week, but they found a way to screw up, which has been par for the course for them. I’m going to side with the Chargers, but I don’t anticipate betting this game.

THURSDAY THOUGHTS: No Jaire Alexander in practice Wednesday, but Keenan Allen missed practice as well. That’s obviously something to monitor. The sharps have come in heavily on the Packers.

SATURDAY NOTES: The sharps love the Packers, yet Green Bay has so many injuries. Rudy Ford is out. Rashan Gary was a late downgrade during the week. Jaire Alexander was DNP-limited-limited in practice, so he may not be 100 percent even if he returns. Quay Walker was limited all week. I don’t trust the Packers, but I don’t want to back the Chargers either, as they just find ways to lose close games.

PLAYER PROPS: Romeo Doubs has gone over 30.5 receiving yards in three of his previous four games, as well as five of his past seven. The Chargers are the ninth-worst team when it comes to surrendering fantasy points to outside receivers. The best number out there is over 30.5 -125 at PointsBet.

FINAL THOUGHTS: Jaire Alexander is inactive, so that might be a reason to side with the Chargers. I just don’t trust them as three-point favorites on the road. Plus, the sharps are betting the Packers, although not as heavily as they did earlier in the week. The best line for the Chargers is -3 +100 at Bovada.

New York Giants (2-8) at Washington Redskins (4-6)
Line: Redskins by 9. Total: 39.
Sunday, Nov. 19, 1:00 PM


The Matchup. Edge: None.

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NEW YORK OFFENSE: As of right now, I’m going to assume that Tommy DeVito will be starting for the Giants again. Moving to Matt Barkley would be the correct decision because he’s actually a functional quarterback, but we haven’t heard of any news on that.

I’ll say this about DeVito: He’s battled some great pass rushes in his three NFL games. He’s taken on the Jets, Raiders and Cowboys. He’s had to deal with Micah Parsons, Maxx Crosby, and the Jets’ No. 1 pressure rate in those contests. DeVito will finally get a reprieve in this game, as the Redskins don’t have Montez Sweat or Chase Young anymore. DeVito will actually have time in the pocket for once.

Believe it or not, there are two other things in DeVito’s favor. First, the Redskins have an abysmal secondary, so the Giants receivers will have a decent chance to get open. Second, the Redskins are in the top 10 of allowing rushing yardage to quarterbacks, which has to be music to DeVito’s ears, given how often DeVito runs around.

WASHINGTON OFFENSE: I mentioned the difficult pass rushes DeVito has faced. Sam Howell has endured tough matchups of his own in that regard, as he has taken countless sacks this year. Howell has worked on releasing passes quicker, but that has just resulted in fewer big plays.

If Howell holds the ball longer, he’ll get crushed by the Giants, who blitz at one of the highest rates in the NFL. Howell isn’t very good against the blitz, so he could easily commit some turnovers in this game. He’ll also try to check the ball down to his running backs, which isn’t a strategy that will work well because the Giants allow the second-fewest receiving yards to running backs.

Brian Robinson should at least have a decent game on the ground. New York’s run defense isn’t very good, and Robinson is coming off a strong performance in Seattle.

RECAP: I can’t believe I’m saying this, but I’m betting Tommy DeVito. And not only that, but I’m wagering multiple units on him. I almost feel dead inside.

Hear me out. This isn’t a bet on DeVito as much it is a fade of the Redskins. Washington has absolutely no business being favored by 10 over anyone. I don’t care who’s playing for the other side. It could be Tommy DeVito, it could be Danny DeVito, it could be Danny DeVito’s three-legged dog. The Redskins being favored by double digits in any matchup is a joke.

This is a Redskins team that hasn’t beaten anyone by double digits this year. Their victories have been by four, two, eight and three points. Their defense was atrocious all year, and now it’ll be worse after the team’s two best players, Sweat and Young, were both traded. If the Redskins couldn’t win by double digits with them, how will it do so without them?

And yes, betting on DeVito could be scary. I’m already tilting about it. However, every single game DeVito has played thus far has been against a team with a great pass rush. We’re talking the Jets, Raiders and Cowboys. This is DeVito’s easiest matchup thus far, and it’s not even close.

This is my Pick of the Month! OK, OK, maybe not. But I like the Giants a lot, as gross as it sounds. This will be a three-unit wager at the very least.

THURSDAY THOUGHTS: The Giants may not have Kayvon Thibodeaux or Adoree Jackson, both of whom are recovering from concussions, but I still can’t imagine the Redskins covering this absurd spread.

SATURDAY NOTES: Kayvon Thibodeaux will play, but Adoree Jackson has been ruled out. Andrew Thomas is also questionable after being limited in practice all week, which is a bit scary. I’ll downgrade this pick a bit if Thomas is out, but I’m still going to be betting the Giants regardless because the Redskins should not be favored by six or more over anyone.

PLAYER PROPS: Brian Robinson’s receiving yardage makes no sense to me. The over-under is 10.5. He’s gone over 10.5 in four of his six previous games. The kicker is that Antonio Gibson is doubtful! The best line is over 10.5 +100 at PointsBet.

FINAL THOUGHTS: Some injury news: Andrew Thomas will play, which is huge for the Giants offense. For the Redskins, Antonio Gibson is out, which is great for the Brian Robinson prop. I still like the Giants quite a bit, and so do the sharps. The best line is +9 -110 at PointsBet.

Tennessee Titans (3-6) at Jacksonville Jaguars (6-3)
Line: Jaguars by 6.5. Total: 40.5.
Sunday, Nov. 19, 1:00 PM


The Matchup. Edge: Jaguars.

If you missed it, I have an NFL Betting Props page. I’ll be adding to it as the season progresses!

Also, Confidence Pool Picks will return. They’ll be posted by Wednesday morning each week!

JACKSONVILLE OFFENSE: Three points. That’s all the Jaguars mustered last week. Granted, it was against the 49ers, but still. Jacksonville has way too much firepower to be limited to three points in any game.

The Jaguars will definitely bounce back this week. They’re going up against a horrible Tennessee secondary that was just torched by Baker Mayfield. Calvin Ridley and Christian Kirk will have an easy time getting open against the Titans.

Travis Etienne, meanwhile, has a much more difficult matchup. The Titans have one of the top run defenses in the NFL, so Etienne will be limited on the ground. The Titans also excel at limiting running backs as receivers out of the backfield.

TENNESSEE OFFENSE: Wow, Will Levis has really regressed, hasn’t he? He torched the Falcons mercilessly in his first start. He wasn’t as good against the Steelers, but composed himself well. But last week, he had a dream matchup against the Buccaneers’ league-worst pass defense, yet he was able to lead his team to just six points.

Levis has another favorable matchup as far as the secondary is concerned. The Jaguars have surrendered tons of yardage to outside receivers, which bodes well for DeAndre Hopkins. However, Jacksonville also pressures the quarterback effectively, which is a problem for Levis because his offensive line is poor.

Levis also won’t be able to lean on Derrick Henry. The Jaguars have one of the top run defenses in the NFL, so Henry’s inability to run will leave Levis stranded in too many third-and-long situations.

RECAP: One of my favorite angles is to bet a good team coming off an embarrassing loss. If you actually want the numbers behind this, teams with winning percentages of 60 or better coming off defeats of 24 or more are 83-48 against the spread dating back to 1989. Believe me, I hate trends because they can be very misleading, but I feel as though this one has sound logic. Good teams will be playing their best after being humiliated.

And the Jaguars were certainly humiliated. They lost 34-3 to the 49ers, but I think they’ll bounce back, much like another team that did so after a similar result versus San Francisco. I’m referring to when Dallas won the following game against the Chargers on Monday Night Football.

Besides, this is an easy matchup for the Jaguars. Levis finally came crashing back down to Earth, and this is the toughest matchup for him to date, according to the EPA metrics. I hate betting against Mike Vrabel as an underdog, but as with the Titans-Browns game from September, it could be argued that the Jaguars are just out of Tennessee’s league. The Titans won’t be able to run the ball against the Jaguars, so I don’t see how they’re going to compete.

THURSDAY THOUGHTS: It’s still early in the week, but the sharps have been betting the Titans at +7. I still love the Jaguars to bounce back off their humiliating loss.

SATURDAY NOTES: If Daniel Brunskill is out after missing last week and being limited all three days in practice, the Titans will be down three offensive linemen against a talented pass rush. Will Levis took a ton of sacks last week, and I’m expecting the same thing to happen in this game.

PLAYER PROPS: Calvin Ridley could get the squeaky wheel gets the grease treatment this week. The Titans are poor against the pass, allowing the eighth-most fantasy points to outside wide receivers. Mike Evans just torched Tennessee, so Ridley should be able to do the same. The best number is 47.5 -110 at BetMGM.

FINAL THOUGHTS: Zay Jones is back for the Jaguars, which is a nice boost for that offense. However, the sharps are all over Tennessee for some reason. This line has fallen to +6.5 in most sportsbooks. The best line is -6.5 -110 at PointsBet.

Chicago Bears (3-7) at Detroit Lions (7-2)
Line: Lions by 8. Total: 48.
Sunday, Nov. 19, 1:00 PM


The Matchup. Edge: None.

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DETROIT OFFENSE: The Lions were incredible offensively against the Chargers. They made all the right moves, as their brilliant coaching staff continuously schemed open players, especially on crucial downs. It made me realize how different the Lions are now compared to even just a few years ago when the preseason announcers would brag about some fourth-tier player the Lions would bring in from a Super Bowl champion. “Hey fans, we got Tavon Wilson. He was part of the Patriots’ Super Bowl winning roster, so he’ll help the Lions win a Super Bowl, too!”

Detroit gashed the Chargers mercilessly, which is key in this matchup. The Chargers’ ground defense had been stellar heading into that game, yet it didn’t matter because Detroit’s elite offensive line blasted open huge holes for David Montgomery and Jahmyr Gibbs. I wrote that this is key for this game because the Bears have also improved markedly against the run recently. Chicago can stop most ground attacks, but I question if they’ll be able to limit Montgomery and Gibbs.

The Bears, of course, also have to worry about Amon-Ra St. Brown. The Bears are in the middle of the pack when it comes to defending slot receivers, so I don’t have any faith that they’ll be able to contain the dynamic play-maker.

CHICAGO OFFENSE: As great as Detroit’s offense was last week, the defense was nearly as bad. The Lions couldn’t stop anything the Chargers were doing. Granted, they were going up against an explosive offense, but the Bears could have some major fire power on this side of the ball if things go right.

Of course, I’m referring to Justin Fields. There’s a chance Fields will return this week, which will be problematic for Detroit’s secondary. When we last saw Fields, he was torching opposing secondaries with long throws to D.J. Moore and also scrambling a ton after not doing so very much to start the year. The Lions are in the bottom 10 when it comes to defending outside receivers and the bottom five versus slot receivers. They are also sub par versus tight ends.

The one good piece of news for the Lions is that they can at least handle the run when defending opposing running backs. They’ve surrendered the second-fewest rushiing yards to opposing backs. However, they haven’t done a good job on scrambling quarterbacks, so this is an area Fields or Tyson Bagent can exploit.

RECAP: I love the Lions just as much as anyone. We’ve been on them dating back to last year when they were losing fluky games like that one defeat to the Cowboys when Jamaal Williams fumbled at the 1-yard line. I bet them at 33/1 to win the Super Bowl this season. Believe me, I think they’re great.

However, this is a game in which I’ll be fading Detroit. This is a tough spot for the Lions, who are massive favorites before playing on Thanksgiving. I know that the Thanksgiving opponent is just Green Bay, but it’s still a marquee game because of the holiday.

Also, this spread is just way too large. This is a higher number than when Detroit played Carolina, which makes no sense because the Bears are better than the Panthers; Chicago just beat Carolina last Thursday even though the Panthers scored a punt return touchdown. And I’m not even factoring in the possibility that Fields plays. If Fields is in, forget about it; +10 is almost a lock because of his ability to scramble and keep games close. But still, even if it’s Bagent, the Bears have shown that they can be very competitive with him. In fact, they’ve covered all but one game with him as the starting quarterback.

Part of the success with Bagent is Chicago’s improved defense. The Bears are stellar against the run, which is huge for this matchup because the Lions will try to ram the ball down Chicago’s throat. The run won’t be as successful this time. Sure, Goff can have a good game, but if the Lions can’t rush the ball effectively, it’ll be difficult for them to cover a double-digit spread.

THURSDAY THOUGHTS: Justin Fields has been announced as the starter, causing this line to plummet to +7.5. I don’t think it’ll cross over +7 because that’ll open up the sportsbooks to be middled. They could be trapped with a bad line on Detroit. The sharps have recognized this and have bet the Bears heavily.

SATURDAY NOTES: Justin Fields isn’t the only key player who will be returning from injury. Khalil Herbert and Nate Davs will be returning as well. Davis is a talented guard, so having him available will be huge. This just reinforces the fact that this spread is too high.

PLAYER PROPS: We bet Darnell Mooney over receptions a couple of weeks ago when he played against the Saints. This is an even better situation, as the Lions are bottom five in fantasy points allowed to slot receivers. Mooney’s over two receptions is plus money at sportsbooks, much like Kyle Phillips’ props were last week. The best number is +130 at BetMGM. You can Get $1,500 in bonus bets from BetMGM by clicking the link.

FINAL THOUGHTS: Tremaine Edmunds is a surprise active for the Bears, which is a nice boost for the defense. The sharps are on Chicago. The best line is +8 -106 at Bookmaker.

Las Vegas Raiders (5-5) at Miami Dolphins (6-3)
Line: Dolphins by 14. Total: 44.
Sunday, Nov. 19, 1:00 PM


The Matchup. Edge: Dolphins.

If you’ve followed this site for a while, you might remember that I like to respond to my spam mails. It all started numerous years ago, when a man named Jon Wire from the “United Bank of Africoan” promised me an ATM card of some sort, so I responded as a man named Mister Compassion Chuck Norris, who was raised by wolves. The following season, I received e-mails from Richard Held and Loon Bruce, who told me I won a Facebook Award, which comes with a “lump sum pay out of (750,000.00 GBP).” Pretending to be Matthew Millen Kim, I sent out my application and fake money.

I’ve been messing around with spammers ever since, pretending to be Harvey Weinstein, Joe Biden, Ramsay Bolton and Walter White. I have plenty of Spam Mails this year, so check them out if you want to see me screw with spammers. I’ll have new ones every week this year!

MIAMI OFFENSE: The last time we saw Tua Tagovailoa, he wasn’t looking too good. He really struggled in Germany versus the Chiefs. However, he was going up against one of the top defenses in the NFL. Things will be much different in this game.

The Raiders have a great pass rush, but they don’t have anything else going for them on this side of the ball. Miami can even easily negate the pass rush. Not only is the offensive line healthy, but Tagovailoa is capable of releasing the ball very quickly. This is unlike the Raiders’ previous opponent, Zach Wilson, who holds the ball forever in the pocket. I have no faith that the Raiders will be able to cover Tyreek Hill and Jaylen Waddle, both of whom will be schemed open.

The Dolphins will also be able to run the ball well in this contest. The Raiders are poor versus the rush, which doesn’t bode well for them against Raheem Mostert. There’s also a chance De’Von Achane will play, so he’ll be able to break some big runs as well.

LAS VEGAS OFFENSE: The Raiders had the dilemma of Aidan O’Connell starting against the Jets’ top-ranked defense last week, but they were able to survive by pounding Josh Jacobs into New York’s defense. The Jets are a run-funnel defense, so Jacobs had a strong outing.

Jacobs’ matchup doesn’t look nearly as promising in this game. First of all, only four teams have surrendered fewer rushing yards to running backs than Miami. Second, if the Dolphins go up big, Las Vegas will be forced into abandoning the run.

O’Connell will have to do more this week, which is an issue because the Dolphins have welcomed back Jalen Ramsey from injury. Having Ramsey and Xavien Howard will allow Miami to have an improved secondary. O’Connell hasn’t had any positive chemistry with Jakobi Meyers yet, so the Dolphins can focus on limiting Davante Adams.

RECAP: Prior to seeing these lines, I thought the Raiders would be a great fade at a tremendous bargain. They’ve climbed back to .500, but they were outgained in net yards and yards per play versus the Jets. People can be quick to forget that the Raiders got blown out by Chicago and then were not competitive at all versus the Lions the following week.

The Raiders won their previous two games against the dreadful Giants and mistake-prone Jets. Battling the Dolphins will be a completely different animal. Miami will be able to throw all over the Raider secondary. O’Connell, forced into a shootout for the first time in his career, will make the same mistakes the Raiders have been able to benefit from in recent weeks.

But then I saw the spread. My first reaction to -11 (and now -12) was that it was very unappealing. But then I thought about it, and I realized that it’s high for a reason. The sportsbooks want the public to bet the Raiders. I think they know that Miami is likely to tear the overrated Raiders to shreds, so I won’t be falling into that trap. There’s a huge talent disparity between these teams, so I’ll be betting Miami.

THURSDAY THOUGHTS: This spread has been steamed all the way up to -13.5. There are no key numbers between 10 and 14, so I don’t really care about this move. It must be noted that Kolton Miller missed Wednesday’s practice.

SATURDAY NOTES: I made a mistake in saying the Dolphins offensive line was completely healthy, as Robert Hunt will be sidelined. Still, this isn’t nearly enough to get me to back off the Dolphins, who are healthy elsewhere. It would be shocking to me if this game were close.

PLAYER PROPS: Nothing here. I considered Jakobi Meyers under again, but there will be lots of garbage time stats for the Raiders.

FINAL THOUGHTS: I said on the show last night that I was going to lock in the Dolphins -13.5, but I was tired and passed out on the couch. The line predictably has moved to -14. The best line is -14 -105 at Bovada. There’s no sharp action on either side.

Dallas Cowboys (6-3) at Carolina Panthers (1-8)
Line: Cowboys by 10.5. Total: 43.
Sunday, Nov. 19, 1:00 PM


The Matchup. Edge: Cowboys.

Video of the Week: Here’s a Pitch Meetings video. I love this one because they make fun of how bad the Twilight series is. I published a Jerks of the Week: Twilight the Movie entry a long time ago:



Wow, I can’t believe that was 12 years ago. Anyway, this video makes me sad that I didn’t watch the other movies and make fun of them, too.

DALLAS OFFENSE: Dak Prescott and CeeDee Lamb have been unstoppable in recent weeks. Well, almost. There was the double one-inch fiasco versus the Eagles, but they’ve otherwise torched opposing secondaries mercilessly. Playing against bad secondaries like the ones the Rams, Eagles and Giants possess helped matters.

The Panthers are better versus the pass than all three of those teams. It’s helped that they’ve gotten some key players back from injury. They can also get after the quarterback pretty well, assuming that Brian Burns is in the lineup. Prescott is protected very well, but even disrupting his timing a little bit could throw off Dallas’ rhythm.

It’s not all great for the Panthers on this side of the ball, as they struggle to stop the run. Several weeks ago, I would have said that the Cowboys could exploit this liability by feeding Tony Pollard, but for whatever reason, Pollard has just been dreadful. He’s had tough matchups, but he had a positive outlook last week before putting up a complete dud. There’s no guarantee that things will turn around for him this week.

CAROLINA OFFENSE: I just made things sound positive for the Panthers, but now we get to their offense, which has been atrocious all year. They traded up for the wrong quarterback despite the coaches’ pleas for C.J. Stroud, and they’ve been punished for it. Many are making excuses for Bryce Young, citing his poor offensive line and receiving corps, but no one was talking about Houston’s blockers and receivers before the year. Young just looks like a thrift-store version of Kyler Murray.

Young’s offensive line versus Dallas’ pass rush seems like such a mismatch. However, the Cowboys actually don’t get that much pressure on the quarterback, ranking 15th in pressure rate. All of their pressure comes from the edge, where the Panthers actually block well. Carolina’s blocking issues are in the interior, but Dallas doesn’t apply heat on the quarterback in that area.

Unfortunately for the Panthers, there aren’t any other positives. The Cowboys are top 10 versus the run, and they’re also top 10 against slot receivers. Carolina won’t be able to use Chuba Hubbard or Adam Thielen as effectively as they’d like.

RECAP: This mirrors the Lions-Bears game we just discussed. The Cowboys are a far better team when compared to the Panthers, but they could be caught looking ahead to playing a Thanksgiving game in four days. Sure, it’s just against the Redskins, but Washington should be considered a tougher opponent than the Panthers, who have the worst record in the NFL.

Carolina, however, is not the worst team in the league. Its pass defense has been pretty solid since getting some talented players back from injury. The Panthers are far weaker to the run, but it’s not like the Cowboys have been rushing the ball well this year. Despite the disparity between these teams’ records, this matchup doesn’t seem too bad for the Panthers.

Given everything I just mentioned, it shouldn’t come as a surprise that the sharps have already been betting the Panthers heavily. I think they’re on to something, as this just seems like it will be a sloppy game for Dallas.

THURSDAY THOUGHTS: There’s a ton of sharp money coming in on the Panthers. I was hoping this would mean that there were some Dallas players on the injury report, but every single player on the Cowboys roster practiced fully on Wednesday, which is remarkable.

SATURDAY NOTES: The Panthers will be getting back Brian Burns and D.J. Chark. I was hoping one of their two injured cornerbacks would return, but that’s not the case. I still like the Panthers, and I’m going to bet a few units on them because Carolina has become underrated recently. The Panthers defense has been so much better since the bye, and I think that they have some nice matchup edges in this game, as odd as that sounds.

PLAYER PROPS: Fading Dak Prescott seems idiotic, but this is a rough matchup for him. The Panthers are one of the best teams against the pass with most of their key players back in the lineup. Carolina is very vulnerable to the run, so Dallas may just handle everything on the ground. The best number for passing yards is under 260.5 -106 at Caesars.

FINAL THOUGHTS: The sharps are all over the Panthers. If you’re daring enough to bet Carolina, the best line is +11 -105 at Bovada.