NFL Picks Against the Spread: Week 1, 2022

Kansas City Chiefs (0-0) at Arizona Cardinals (0-0)
Line: Chiefs by 6.5. Total: 54.
Sunday, Sept. 11, 4:25 PM


The Matchup. Edge: None.

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KANSAS CITY OFFENSE: Many casual fans expect the Chiefs to be less potent offensively this year. That’s because of Tyreek Hill’s departure, of course. Hill is one of the most dynamic threats in the NFL, so it’s only natural that ESPN viewers would be so down on the Chiefs.

However, there’s reason to believe that Kansas City will be just as explosive this year. While the team won’t be as top-heavy at receiver, it has much more depth at the position now. Mahomes will be able to spread the ball around more effectively than he has in the past. This will be troublesome for an Arizona cornerback group that has no depth.

Mahomes also figures to have ample time in the pocket. The Cardinals’ pass rush won’t be nearly as potent as it was in the first half of the 2021 season because Chandler Jones is gone. J.J. Watt will return from injury, but Jones’ departure will have a major impact on the entire defense.

ARIZONA OFFENSE: Like the Chiefs, the Cardinals lost their top receiver, at least for six games, as DeAndre Hopkins won’t be able to play until Week 7. Marquise Brown was acquired, but he was more of a replacement for Christian Kirk, who left for Jacksonville this offseason. Thus, Kyler Murray’s arsenal won’t be as powerful, at least until Hopkins is able to play again.

Murray won’t have the best protection either. The two guards are liabilities, while center Rodney Hudson contemplated retirement this offseason, so his heart may not be in the game anymore. If not, Arizona’s offensive line won’t have an answer for Chris Jones.

I don’t expect the Cardinals to run the ball very well either. James Conner is a lackluster back, and he won’t have the necessary blocking to exploit any advantages on the other side of the ball. He should do well as a receiver out of the backfield, but that’s about it.

RECAP: There has been some major line movement in this game. The Chiefs were -3 for most of the summer, but they were quickly bet up to -3.5, then to -4, then -4.5 and now -6! Public money doesn’t move the line like this, so this was definitely sharp action on Kansas City.

I’m with the sharps on this one, even at the worse price. I love getting Andy Reid with extra time to prepare, and he should coach circles around Kliff “It’s Third Down So Let’s Throw a Deep Pass” Kingsbury. Reid will have to prepare for Thursday’s battle against the Chargers, but I expect him to be locked in on the Cardinals. Besides this being the opener, Arizona was a playoff team last year. Also, Mahomes will want to embarrass Murray. Mahomes has a huge chip on his shoulder, so he’ll want to prove that he should have been the No. 1 overall pick like Murray once was.

Unfortunately, all the line value is gone. As with the Jaguars-Redskins game, I’m disappointed in myself that I didn’t write this one up earlier. My personal line is Kansas City -4.5, so there was a good deal of value with them at -3. That’s obviously no longer the case at -6.

THURSDAY THOUGHTS: I was wondering why the sharps pounded the Chiefs like they did, and we may have our answer. J.J. Watt missed practice with a minor illness. He could be out, and he may have spread his minor illness to teammates. I’m not sure why people even care anymore, but I’m pretty sure this is why we saw so much line movement.

SATURDAY NOTES: Whoa, Cardinals… Already down DeAndre Hopkins, Arizona will be without Rondale Moore and Trayvon Mullen. Even worse, J.J. Watt failed to practice all week, while Byron Murphy is listed as questionable after missing Friday’s practice with an illness. Oh, and Zach Ertz was L-D-L in practice, while Justin Pugh was limited all week. Arizona is the most injured team of the week, so I have interest in betting on Kansas City, even at this inflated price.

SUNDAY MORNING NOTES It sounds like J.J. Watt will be out. Byron Murphy will probably play, but the Chiefs look great at the moment. This could be an ugly blowout.

FINAL THOUGHTS: Murphy will play, but Watt and Justin Pugh are out. I like the Chiefs, especially at the -6 -113 line at Bookmaker. The sharps are on the Chiefs.

Las Vegas Raiders (0-0) at Los Angeles Chargers (0-0)
Line: Chargers by 3.5. Total: 52.
Sunday, Sept. 11, 4:25 PM


The Matchup. Edge: None.

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SAN ANGELES OFFENSE: I was very high on the Chargers heading into last season because they had made such great improvements to their offensive line. Their blocking unit figures to improve even more this year because the front office spent a first-round pick on an upgrade at guard.

The Chargers being even better up front is essential in this matchup because the Raiders acquired Chandler Jones to pair with Maxx Crosby. They’ll have a stellar pass rush, but the Chargers’ blocking unit should be able to keep them at bay for the most part, allowing Herbert to locate Mike Williams and Keenan Allen for considerable gains.

Austin Ekeler might have the best matchup in this game. The Raiders have a sketchy linebacking corps that will have trouble covering the middle of the field, so I expect Ekeler to pick up chunks of yardage as a receiver out of the backfield.

LAS VEGAS OFFENSE: Like the Raiders, the Chargers made a key acquisition this offseason to strengthen the pass rush. They already had Joey Bosa, yet they acquired Khalil Mack to pair with him. Assuming Mack recovers from the injuries that plagued him last year, he and Bosa are going to be a devastating duo this year.

The difference in this matchup is that while the Chargers have an excellent offensive line, the Raiders do not. I don’t trust Jermaine Eluemunor to protect Derek Carr from one of the Chargers’ dynamic edge rushers. Thus, the Raiders may have more trouble moving the chains consistently.

That said, the Raiders have tons of firepower, so they’ll still be tough to stop. Davante Adams will open up everything in the Raiders’ offense, allowing Darren Waller and Hunter Renfrow to see easier coverage. The Chargers have improved in the secondary after signing J.C. Jackson and Bryce Callahan, but I don’t think they’ll be able to do anything about Waller.

RECAP: Of all the games this week, I’ve had the most difficulty handicapping this one. I think I’d be on the Chargers at -3.5 under normal circumstances, but with a battle against the Chiefs looming in four days, how can an inexperienced team like San Angeles possibly be prepared for this game?

I can almost hear some people saying, “But Walt, this is a revenge game from last year because the Raiders knocked the Chargers out from making the playoffs!” To be more accurate, the Chargers knocked themselves out with that dumb timeout. They have no one to blame but themselves, so I don’t think they’re going to be too concerned with avenging that loss.

I’d happily side with the Raiders because of the look-ahead factor, but Josh McDaniels is a new coach with this team. I’m not interested in betting on a new head coach making his debut unless I’m getting most of the key numbers. That’s not the case here, but I’m still going to side with the Raiders.

THURSDAY THOUGHTS: J.C. Jackson will miss this game, which is a huge deal because the Chargers needed him to deal with Davante Adams. I like the Raiders a bit more now, but not enough to bet them.

SATURDAY NOTES: I have nothing new to say about this game. Barring something crazy that occurs in the next 24 hours, I won’t be betting either side.

SUNDAY MORNING NOTES Nothing new here. Barring an unexpected inactive, I’ll be staying away.

FINAL THOUGHTS: No surprise inactives. No sharp action on either side. I have no interest in betting this game, but it should be fun to watch.

Green Bay Packers (0-0) at Minnesota Vikings (0-0)
Line: Vikings by 1.5. Total: 46.5.
Sunday, Sept. 11, 4:25 PM


The Matchup. Edge: None.

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GREEN BAY OFFENSE: It seems as though everyone is down on the Packers this year. Everyone except Vegas, that is, as Green Bay still has good odds to win the Super Bowl. The public, conversely, has soured on the Packers because of Davante Adams’ departure. Adams is a huge loss, but beyond Aaron Rodgers, there’s reason to believe that the Packers will be fine on this side of the ball this year.

That reason is not Romeo Doubs, though I’m bullish on his outlook. The reason is the return of David Bakhtiari, who missed all but one game last year. When the Packers were demolishing the Titans on a Sunday Night Football game in late December of 2020, I believed they would win the Super Bowl that year, but my beliefs quickly shifted when Bakhtiari suffered an injury. That’s how important he is to the Packers. He should be back at full strength, so he’ll be able to vastly improve Rodgers’ protection.

Assuming I’m correct in thinking that Rodgers will have plenty of time in the pocket, he’ll be able to dissect Minnesota’s secondary. Again, it can’t be ignored that the Packers have issues at receiver, but the Vikings’ secondary can be exploited. I also expect Aaron Jones and A.J. Dillon to have strong performances as receivers out of the backfield.

MINNESOTA OFFENSE: Rodgers, Bakhtiari and the two running backs are just a part of the equation, as the Packers may sport the best defense in the NFL. Their stop unit was seventh in yards allowed last year despite Jaire Alexander playing in just four games. Alexander will return, while the draft selections used on Devonte Wyatt and Quay Walker will help.

Alexander’s return will be extremely imperative in this matchup, given the talent the Vikings have at receiver. Alexander will be able to slow down Justin Jefferson to potentially force Kirk Cousins into making some mistakes. Cousins will see plenty of heat in the pocket, given that his offensive line isn’t very good.

Minnesota’s best chance of moving the chains reliably is establishing Dalvin Cook. The Packers haven’t been as good against the run in recent years, but that could change with Wyatt and Walker on the roster. Still, Cook is a threat to potentially dominate this game, especially if I’m wrong about the Packers being able to play better than expected offensively.

RECAP: There are a few things in Green Bay’s favor:

1. I believe that last year’s Week 1 blowout will be fresh on the minds of Rodgers and Matt LaFleur. They were embarrassed by the Saints, so they’ll take this game way more seriously, especially because it’s against their current top rival in the division.

2. Speaking of LaFleur, he has the obvious coaching edge in this matchup, given that his opponent will be a head coach for the first time. Kevin O’Connell could turn out to be a great coach, but this is his debut.

3. As for Rodgers, he could be fueled by all the negative talk surrounding his team. We all know that Rodgers can play with a giant chip on his shoulder, so he may want to prove that he can win without Adams.

With all that in mind, sign me up for a couple of units on the Packers as long as the line doesn’t creep up to -3.

THURSDAY THOUGHTS: No update at the moment. I saw that David Bakhtiari is considered questionable for this game, but it would be an upset if he didn’t play.

SATURDAY NOTES: We might have a nice opportunity with the Vikings come Sunday. David Bakhtiari missed Friday’s practice, while Elgton Jenkins is also listed as questionable. If both are ruled out, I’ll switch to the Vikings and bet them.

SUNDAY MORNING NOTES I’m switching to the Vikings because David Bakhtiari will miss this game, and it sounds like Elgton Jenkins will be out, too. The sharps have jumped all over the Vikings.

FINAL THOUGHTS: As expected, both tackles are out for the Packers, which presents a big problem in this matchup. I’m tempted to bet the Vikings, but I’m not going to pull the trigger. If you want to, the best line I see is -1.5 at Bookmaker. The sharps took the Vikings when they were underdogs upon hearing the injury news.

New York Giants (0-0) at Tennessee Titans (0-0)
Line: Titans by 5.5. Total: 44.
Sunday, Sept. 11, 4:25 PM


The Matchup. Edge: None.

NEW YORK OFFENSE: The Giants didn’t generate much on this side of the ball last year, averaging 15.2 points per game. However, this statistic was very misleading. The Giants started Mike Glennon and Jake Fromm late in the year, and the duo was able to generate more than 13 points just once. The exception was a 21-point output against the Chargers in garbage time. The Giants were much more competitive when Jones was on the field. They were 4-7 straight up, but 6-5 against the spread. They lost by an average score of 23 to 18.4. They suffered four double-digit defeats, but of those results, Saquon Barkley was on the field for two full games.

Barkley is an important part of the equation because he’s now two years removed from his torn ACL. He’ll be back to full strength, so he should have a great season behind his new-and-improved offensive line. The Giants made three upgrades to the front, so Jones will benefit as well. Jones has gotten lots of flak for his play thus far in New York, but he never really had a fair shake because of poor protection issues. We may see a completely different Jones this year.

Jones will also have a better receiving corps at his disposal. Kenny Golladay and Kadarius Toney were banged up last season, so they’ll also be available to expose some of the liabilities in Tennessee’s secondary. Wan’Dale Robinson’s presence will only help as well. I don’t expect an offensive explosion from the Giants in this matchup, but they’ll have success moving the chains and scoring enough to potentially win outright.

TENNESSEE OFFENSE: While the Giants’ scoring unit will see a big improvement this year, the opposite can be said of the Titans. Whereas the Giants found three upgrades for the offensive line, the Titans lost two blockers. Rodger Saffold was a key departure in the interior, while David Quessenberry was a devastating run blocker. Derrick Henry will miss both of them against a Giants defense that typically performs well against the run.

The Titans also took a hit in their receiving corps. A.J. Brown and Julio Jones are gone, and they will be missed, especially the former. Tennessee’s offense was a completely different unit when Brown wasn’t on the field last year, so Ryan Tannehill will now have to endure without him. This will be a problem because Robert Woods, signed to replace one of the starters, is coming off a torn ACL. The other new wideout, Treylon Burks, is a mere rookie making his first start.

Tannehill will also have issues dealing with the Giants’ pass rush. Kayvon Thibodeaux will make things much better for New York in that regard. Thibodeaux was only a rookie, but remember that he was expected to be the No. 1 overall pick for months. He slipped because of some character concerns, but he has been dominant in training camp. He should have success pressuring Tannehill because of Tennessee’s diminished blocking.

RECAP: I wanted to lock in this pick early because the sharps jumped on the Giants. This spread was +6.5, but it has fallen to +6 in every sportsbook. FanDuel still has +6.5 -115 available, however.

I think this spread is way off, even if it’s +6. I made this line Tennessee -3! I consider the Titans to be two points better than the Giants – which might be too many – so with that and one point for home-field advantage, I came up with -3. If that’s correct, we’re getting all the key numbers, except for seven, with a side that is being backed by professional bettors. I’ve been eying this one for quite a while, but I was hoping to land +7. That is not going to happen because the pros are smitten with the underrated Giants versus the overrated Titans.

Even if I’m not correct about the spread being completely wrong, the Giants still seem like the right side. The Titans are not a team that frequently covers large spreads well – see the trends section – as they are a grind-it-out football team that wins ugly games by three or four points. Fading them as a large favorite is often correct.

As with the 49ers-Bears pick, I’ll have an update on the Tuesday when I make my Week 1 selections. I just wanted to lock this in now just in case the line continued to drop to +5.5.

WEEK 1 UPDATE: I was right about the line dropping to +5.5. I still love the Giants at that price, as my new projected line is Tennessee -2.5. I have the Titans as being 1.5 points better than the Giants, so if you add one point for home-field advantage, you get -2.5.

THURSDAY THOUGHTS: I’m going to add a small bet on the Giants moneyline. Bovada has the best odds for that at +205.

SATURDAY NOTES: Both teams are missing some key defensive players. The Giants won’t have their top two edge rushers, Kayvon Thibodeaux and Azeez Ojulari, while Tennessee will be without top edge rusher Harold Landry and cornerback Elijah Molden. I still love the Giants, and you can still get a +6 for -120 vig at BetUS.

SUNDAY MORNING NOTES I’ll try to find the best +6 for you prior to kickoff if you haven’t bet the Giants already. I bet them at +6.5 in early August, so I’m happy about that decision.

FINAL THOUGHTS: The best +6 I see is at Bovada for -120 vig. I still love the Giants, and the sharps do as well.

Tampa Bay Buccaneers (0-0) at Dallas Cowboys (0-0)
Line: Buccaneers by 2. Total: 50.5.
Sunday, Sept. 11, 8:20 PM


The Matchup. Edge: None.

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TAMPA BAY OFFENSE: The Buccaneers aren’t in the best shape right now. They lost two interior offensive linemen during the offseason and then a third to injury. They signed Shaq Mason to replace one of the departed players, but there are question marks at guard and center. Meanwhile, Chris Godwin is coming off a torn ACL; Antonio Brown has been exiled from the NFL; and Rob Gronkowski announced his retirement.

Then, of course, there’s Tom Brady, who took a curious leave of absence from training camp. Brady is the least of my concerns for the Buccaneers despite the fact that he’s now 45, but there’s no doubt that his supporting cast is much weaker than it was when he won the Super Bowl in Tampa. Yet, the Buccaneers are still being priced as if they’re still the top team in the NFC. Aside from the Bills, they have the best odds to win the Super Bowl at +830. This is a mistake, as they certainly are not the second-best team in the NFL.

With that in mind, the Cowboys appear to have the advantage on this side of the ball, despite the presence of Brady and Mike Evans. Dallas doesn’t do many things well, but it can certainly apply tons of pressure on the quarterback with DeMarcus Lawrence and Micah Parsons. Brady will have plenty of pressure in his face, which will make it difficult to sustain drives.

DALLAS OFFENSE: The Buccaneers aren’t alone in having worrisome issues with their offense. The Cowboys also lost two offensive linemen depart this offseason, and they lost a third to injury as well. Like Tampa, Dallas saw two receiving threats depart, while a third is going to have problems coming off a torn ACL. It’s remarkable how these two offenses are almost mirror images of each other.

The sole difference between the two teams is the quarterback play. Unless Brady finally begins to regress, he’ll give the Buccaneers the edge in this matchup. Dak Prescott can certainly have his moments, but he needs everything around him to be perfect. That is hardly the case now, and like the Cowboys, the Buccaneers can get after the quarterback with Shaq Barrett, Joe Tryon-Shoyinka and newly signed Akiem Hicks.

Another thing that sets these teams apart is on the defensive side of the ball. The Buccaneers have maintained one of the top run-stopping defenses in the NFL, and that should continue to be the case. Neither Ezekiel Elliott nor Tony Pollard is a threat to do much on the ground.

RECAP: It’s extremely disappointing that these teams are battling each other in Week 1 because I wanted to fade them both. Dallas and Tampa are in rough shape compared to what the public thinks of them, so there will be value in fading the two squads in the future.

As for the present, I believe I’ll be on the Buccaneers because I trust Brady more than Prescott. That’s the only angle I have, so I will not be betting either side in this game. In fact, if I were to make a wager, it would be on the under, as the two teams are missing a combined six offensive linemen from a year ago.

THURSDAY THOUGHTS: No change here at the moment. This is one of my least-favorite games of the week as far as betting is concerned.

SATURDAY NOTES: Jayron Kearse popped up on the Cowboys’ injury report after missing Friday’s practice. His absence would really hurt Dallas’ secondary.

SUNDAY MORNING NOTES The thought crossed my mind to switch to the Cowboys if this line gets to +3, but I don’t think I’d pull the trigger.

FINAL THOUGHTS: I still have no interest in betting this game, and the sharps haven’t taken a side either. I have a lean on the Buccaneers, so if you like them, you can get -2 at Bookmaker.

Denver Broncos (0-0) at Seattle Seahawks (0-0)
Line: Broncos by 6. Total: 44.
Monday, Sept. 12, 8:15 PM


The Matchup. Edge: Broncos.

This week on ESPN, we’re going to have awful announcers calling the shots instead the great preseason homers like Kevin Reilly, Ron Wolfley and Don Tollefson, inept ESPN guys Emmitt, Herman Edwards, and aloof people like Jay Cutler. Here’s what it would sound like if some of these dudes (and some special guests) were calling this game:

Reilly: Welcome to the city of Seattle, and another NFL season! Guys, I’m so excited for football to begin; not because we’ve missed it so much, but because this is the first year I’ll be a big brother after Mother gave birth to her new baby, Jay Reilly Jr. I look forward to watching games with New Daddy as well as New Brother unless New Brother hates the Eagles. If he hates the Eagles, I will place him on the front steps of the fire department so that he grows up without parents!

Emmitt: Jay Reilly Jr., I must wish you a congratulation that your mother gived birth to a baby brother. I am confuse though because she 90 year old. I always belief that woman when they hit a certain age, they go through mental pause, which mean they cannot have child anymore.

Reilly: First of all, Emmitt, my name is not Jay Reilly Jr. That’s my little brother’s name. My name is Kevin Reilly. We’ve been working together for more than a decade now, so I was hoping you’d have learned my name by now. Second, my brother being born is a miracle. Whether it was the work of God or Satan will be known once we find out which team he’s rooting for.

Tollefson: I, for one, look forward to having the rugrat hanging around. I’ll teach him all sorts of things, like how to kidnap women without being caught, and how to discipline them if they don’t cook and clean your house properly. I’ll also teach him how to con old people for lots of money. It’ll be great.

Reilly: Hey, not fair! You said you would teach me those things once Mother said I’m old enough to talk to women! New Daddy, can you tell Mother that I’m old enough to talk to women now that I’m finally not her youngest child?

Jay Cutler: Who’s your mother again?

Reilly: The woman you married and had a child with! New Daddy, pay attention to life!

Adam Schefter: Think again, Kevin. I have some breaking news that has been authorized by Howie Roseman. I’ve been allowed to report that Kevin Reilly’s mother has filed emancipation papers for Kevin Reilly, which will make Kevin Reilly a free agent on the open free agent mommy market. Back to you, Kevin!

Reilly: What!? That’s impossible! Mother would never let me leave, right New Daddy?

Jay Cutler: Wait, your that old lady’s kid? Oh yeah, she said she was kicking you out because she had a new baby, or something.

Reilly: Noooo!!! How could Schefter finally get a story right, and it’s about me!? Who’s going to make me macaroni and cheese? What about you, Joe Biden!? Will you be my new Mommy?

Joe Biden: Oh, is someone calling out for Mommy? That sounds like something all my girlfriends do when I go to sniff their hair. Then, they go do their homework, which is simple addition and subtraction. But there’s no such thing as simple addition and subtraction. Addition is the thing when you add, and subtraction, he’s the guy who took the walrus out of the freezer and put him into the oven. The walrus fried the chicken, and the clown ate the French fries while listening to the damn CD, I mean record player. Hello, I’m Joe Biden and I’m running for the Senate.

Donald Trump: Excuse me, excuse me, wrong, wrong, Sleepy Joe says the walrus fried the chicken, but frankly, this is completely, totally wrong, believe me, no one knows about frying chicken better than I do, excuse me, excuse me, it looks like you’re trying to say I can’t fry chicken, but you’re totally, totally wrong, no one fries chicken better than I can, especially the walrus because he’s a total fraud, and a total disaster, no one has seen anything like it. The walrus is a total disgrace, but that’s what people told me, which makes sense because the walrus is a total disaster, especially when compared to me, everyone agrees.

Wolfley: DONALD, THE WALRUS DID NOT FRY THE CHICKEN. THE WALRUS PUT SAUCE ON THE BOYS, AND WHEN YOU PUT SAUCE ON THE BOYS, YOU CANNOT FRY A CHICKEN.

Reilly: Shut up, idiots! I need a new Mommy to make me macaroni and cheese. Roger Goodell is here for the season opener! Mr. Goodell, will you make me macaroni and cheese for dinner?

Goodell: Greetings, fellow hu-man, I know of your substance comprised of liquified pasta and dairy product. As a fellow hu-man, I also have consumed liquified pasta and dairy product, and I typically consume – generating random number – negative-906 pounds of liquified pasta and dairy product each month. This is proof that I am hu-man just like you fellow hu-mans.

Reilly: Oh, it’s no use. I no longer have a Mommy.

Charles Davis: Kevin, looks like you’re talking about orphans, Kevin. Let’s discuss some orphans, Kevin. There’s Harry Potter, Kevin. That’s right, Kevin, the wizard who defeated Voldemort was an orphan, Kevin. What about Will Hunting from Good Will Hunting, Kevin? How about them apples, Kevin? What do you think about Peter Parker, Kevin? With great power comes great responsibilities, Kevin. How about Hannibal Lecter, Kevin? Quid pro quo, Kevin. Can you name an orphan, Kevin? Give up, Kevin? Kevin Reilly is an orphan, Kevin!

Reilly: F**K YOU, CHARLES DAVIS! I WILL GET A NEW MOMMY ONE DAY, AND WHEN SHE FEEDS ME MACARONI AND CHEESE, I’LL HAVE ENOUGH ENERGY TO FIGHT BACK AGAINST YOU AND MAKE YOU PAY! We’ll be back after this!

DENVER OFFENSE: I don’t understand why the Broncos aren’t getting more Super Bowl hype. When they obtained Russell Wilson, I thought I was a genius for betting them at 22/1 earlier, but I found a sportsbook that had 25/1 odds for them while I was in Las Vegas. Denver fits the mold of the past two Super Bowl champions: Mediocre or slightly better teams that acquired a talented quarterback to put them over the top. The Buccaneers went from 7-9 to Super Bowl champions with Tom Brady, and then the Rams went from 10-6 to champions as well with Matthew Stafford. Denver was 7-10 last year despite bad quarterbacking and tons of injuries. Wilson can lead them to a Super Bowl victory.

Perhaps the trepidation is because of Wilson. The longtime Seahawk quarterback struggled last year, but only because he suffered an injury and returned too early from it. Wilson has never missed a game otherwise, and he’s still young enough to bounce back to performing on a top level. He also has a better offensive line in front of him. The Seahawks famously struggled to protect him for years, but that won’t be the case in Denver.

Wilson has a great matchup in this game, as Seattle’s secondary has some liabilities. The running game won’t be as effective, but the Broncos should be able to do plenty of scoring aerially.

SEATTLE OFFENSE: It’s astonishing that the Seahawks weren’t able to obtain a better replacement for Wilson than Geno Smith. They acquired Drew Lock in the Wilson trade, but he was a predictable disaster in the preseason. Smith was better, but only by default.

I can’t see the Seahawks generating much offense in this matchup. The blocking will be a major issue. The Seahawks are starting two rookie tackles against Bradley Chubb and Randy Gregory. There’s also a chance that top interior lineman Damien Lewis won’t be available after being carted off the field during a preseason game. He may play, but there’s no guarantee he’ll be 100 percent.

Pete Carroll will attempt to protect Smith by establishing the run, but there won’t be many opportunities for that if the Seahawks fall behind in the early stages. Plus, the Broncos were stout against the run last year until they suffered a barrage of injuries in the middle of the season, so they shouldn’t have any problems containing Rashaad Penny.

RECAP: There are two games this week where I believe one of the teams will have severe issues blocking the opponent. The Bears fit that description against the 49ers, and I believe that also applies to the Seahawks versus the Broncos. Seattle’s offensive line is a mess, which makes its dubious quarterbacking situation even worse than it should be. There’s a good chance the Seahawks are the worst team in the NFL, so fading them against one of the better opponents they’ll see this year at a reasonable price seems like the right thing to do.

With that in mind, my personal spread is higher than the Vegas line. Denver is currently -6.5, yet my numbers say that the spread should be -9.5. Thus, I’ll be betting the Broncos.

The one caveat that must not be ignored, however, is the emotional aspect of this game. Wilson will be returning to his old home for the first time, so he could be distracted. The Seahawks will be extremely fired up to prove that they can win without their former quarterback. I could see a situation where some weird things happen, allowing the Seahawks to establish an early lead.

Ultimately, Seattle just doesn’t have the manpower to defeat the Broncos, so I believe Denver will ultimately assume control of this game. I will be betting the Broncos lightly, but if you like the Seahawks, I would suggest wagering on the first-half line before the emotion runs out, and things fall apart for them following intermission.

THURSDAY THOUGHTS: I’m going to drop this to zero units. Like I said, weird things could happen with an emotional Seattle outburst, and I don’t want to trust a new head coach to cover a high number in his first game.

SATURDAY NOTES: The Broncos will be missing Josey Jewell, which is a huge deal because his absence could allow the Seahawks to establish a steady rushing attack. That would keep the ball out of Russell Wilson’s hands. I don’t think I’ll be betting this game.

SUNDAY MORNING NOTES The public continues to pound the Broncos with no pushback from the sharps. I wonder if the pro bettors would come in on the Seahawks if this line gets to +7.5.

FINAL THOUGHTS: We’ve finally seen some sharp money come in on this game. The pros are all over the Seahawks, betting this line down from +7 to +6. I can certainly see the case for the Seahawks. Denver has a new coach and quarterback, and it’ll be missing Josey Jewell, whose absence will hurt the run defense. However, the case for the Broncos is that they’re just so much better than Seattle, and we’re now getting a push with the key number of six (available at Bookmaker). I’m going to remain on the Broncos, but I will not be betting this game.