By Matt McGuire. May 9, 2009.
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I recently found the Web site FantasyFootballCalculator.com, which I HIGHLY suggest you use for all of your fantasy football mock draft needs. It is very simple and is not as flashy as the ESPN Mock Draft simulator. I do not know who these people are I mocked with, but I will give you my thoughts as to why I drafted the way I did, and I’ll also delve into my opponents’ strategies in this mock.
I only analyzed the first four rounds of this mock to discuss in-depth early-round fantasy football strategy, which certainly is not discussed enough by fantasy experts on the Internet. If you think I am underrating/overrating certain players, then that is fine, but all I am asking you to do is look at my perception of fantasy draft strategy for a few minutes then you can feel free to integrate a few of my ideas so you can dominate your fantasy football draft this summer with how you rate players on your board.
ROUND 1:
(1) Team ;;P – Adrian Peterson RB
(2) Team 2 – Matt Forte RB
(3) Matt McGuire – Maurice Jones-Drew RB
(4) Team jk – Michael Turner RB
(5) Team Fie – Steven Jackson RB
(6) Team six – Brian Westbrook RB
(7) Team Lucky 7 – LaDanian Tomlinson RB
(8) Team 8 – Chris Johnson RB
(9) Team chicago – Larry Fitzgerald WR
(10) Team TEN – Deangelo Williams RB
(11) Team t ts – Andre Johnson WR
(12) Team arthur spooner – Frank Gore RB
ANALYSIS: I will go much more in depth with my advanced fantasy football draft strategies later in the summer, but the first thing I do for fantasy mocks this early is rank my top 24 players. MoJo is the third player on my board, and that’s why he was the pick.
I feel like the rest of this first round is pretty standard, but I love Team 2 drafting Matt Forte over Michael Turner at No. 2 overall. Forte has so much potential with Jay Cutler and I believe he will have more rushing touchdowns since Cutler will be able to get Chicago in the red zone on a greater basis. Plus, you have to consider Chicago has no receiver other than Greg Olson who will be a major threat in the red zone. Forte should be the locked in No. 2 back at this point, and quite frankly I might even consider him over Adrian Peterson later in the summer for the No. 1 overall pick on my big board.
I don’t like what Team Chicago did by drafting a receiver at No. 9 over Frank Gore, Clinton Portis, and Brandon Jacobs. I personally am much more comfortable with one of those three backs as my RB1 as opposed to Steve Slaton and Marion Barber, but to each his own.
ROUND 2:
(13) Team arthur spooner – Steve Slaton RB
(14) Team t ts – Clinton Portis RB
(15) Team TEN- Brandon Jacobs RB
(16) Team chicago – Marion Barber RB
(17) Team 8 – Randy Moss WR
(18) Team Lucky 7 – Drew Brees QB
(19) Team six – Tom Brady QB
(20) Team Fie – Peyton Manning QB
(21) Team jk – Reggie Wayne WR
(22) Team Matt McGuire – Steve Smith WR
(23) Team 2 – Calvin Johnson WR
(24) Team ;;p – Anquan Boldin WR
ANALYSIS: As you’ll see in about 80-90 percent of your fantasy drafts, a very solid RB2 will not be on the board for you in the latter part in the second round. This is something to keep in mind because if you are drafting in the top five picks in the first round (of a 12-team mock) you must do your due diligence, research, and come away with the best running back on the board.
What were Lucky 7, six, and Fie thinking? Granted, I am assuming I drafted for a standard scoring league where you get four points per touchdown pass, but drafting a quarterback in the second round is just stupid. What I would like for everyone to do is observe what these teams’ receiving corps will look like as the fantasy draft goes along… and it isn’t pretty.
I like what arthur spooner, t ts, TEN, and chicago did in terms of going RB-RB back-to-back as late-first/early-second rounders. They see the value in potentially having two RB1s on your roster. I just do not feel like the value is there to draft any receiver other than Larry Fitzgerald or Andre Johnson toward the higher portion of the second round, but that is just my opinion.
ROUND 3:
(25) Team ;;P – Terrell Owens WR
(26) Team 2 – Roddy White WR
(27) Matt McGuire – Marques Colston WR
(28) Team jk – Joseph Addai RB
(29) Team Fie – Greg Jennings WR
(30) Team six – Wes Welker WR
(31) Team Lucky 7 – Ryan Grant RB
(32) Team 8 – Reggie Bush RB
(33) Team chicago – Brandon Marshall WR
(34) Team TEN – Dwayne Bowe WR
(35) Team t ts – T.J. Houshmanzedah WR
(36) Team arthur spooner – Kurt Warner QB
ANALYSIS: The first three teams picking in this mock all drafted RB-WR-WR. The reason is because the first two running back tiers consist of a total of 14 backs. All 14 were gone, and looking at the Average Draft Position (ADP) of running backs on FantasyFootballCalculator.com, there is a drop off between Brandon Jacobs and Ryan Grant of a total of 13.1 picks (17.4 to 30.5). I consider RB-WR-WR to be the best strategy if you are picking within the top four picks of a 12-team draft if the top 14 running backs are off the board by the time your pick comes back to you in the second round. DON’T REACH – DRAFT VALUE!!!!
I really have no idea why Wes Welker’s ADP is so high at 34.9, or Round 3 – pick 11 (3.11). He is a slot receiver who maximized his production with Matt Cassel. Tom Brady will be taking more shots downfield and Welker doesn’t have the size or speed to carry a fantasy team as a WR1. Welker was a terrible choice by Team six. With Antonio Bryant, Dwayne Bowe and T.J. Houshmandzadeh on the board, this makes absolutely no sense.
You have to love arthur spooner’s draft up to this point. He got two RB1s in Frank Gore and Steve Slaton in the first two rounds, then correctly assesses the value on the board at his pick. Granted, he has no receiver on his roster up to this point, but why reach for receivers back to back in Rounds 3 and 4 (spooner takes Roy Williams with his next pick)? More on this later, but I think he is getting solid value with the Kurt Warner pick. More on this in the next round.
Let’s talk about my strategy for a second. I drafted MJD in the first round and Steve Smith in the second. Here, I could draft a RB2 in Joseph Addai, Ryan Grant or Reggie Bush. However, I am not very high on any of these backs and I sticked to my big board at this point in the mock. Marques Colston is the No. 23 overall player on my board and I get him at No. 27 overall. Not a bad value.
ROUND 4:
(37) Team arthur spooner – Roy Williams WR
(38) Team t ts – Marshawn Lynch RB
(39) Team TEN- Kevin Smith RB
(40) Team chicago – Ronnie Brown RB
(41) Team 8 – Jason Witten TE
(42) Team Lucky 7 – Pierre Thomas RB
(43) Team six – Thomas Jones RB
(44) Team Fie – Knowshon Moreno RB
(45) Team jk – Braylon Edwards RB
(46) Team Matt McGuire – Derrick Ward RB
(47) Team 2 – Larry Johnson RB
(48) Team ;;p – Philip Rivers QB
As I mentioned previously, I love arthur spooner’s strategy up to this point. However, I would have drafted Antonio Bryant instead of Roy Williams at No. 37 overall. Williams is an underachiever with a new contract, and Bryant is playing for a long-term cotract. I will get into why I love Bryant more in the summer when I release my positional rankings. However, I like that he drafted Warner-Williams as opposed to reaching for two receivers with these picks.
He knows two things: 1) He can get a capable WR1 if one falls to him in the fifth round and 2) All of the first-tier quarterbacks will be gone in the fifth round at his pick. Spooner did not reach for two receivers. He stuck with his big board and drafted for value with Warner and Williams as opposed to feeling like he was reaching with Williams and Braylon Edwards. This is a great strategy if you are drafting late in a 12-team league. Spooner clearly knows what he is doing with his first four picks in the theoretical sense. His next pick in the fifth round as it is snaked back to him? Vincent Jackson.
You might call it a reach, but I think great minds think alike. Knowshon Moreno is currently the No. 17 overall player on my big board, but Fie stole him from me here. I seriously considered drafting Moreno in the third round, but I knew there was a good chance Moreno would fall to me in the fourth round and no chance a capable WR1 would drop to me in the fourth round as well. Moreno will be going in the second round as we get closer to the start of the regular season. He is a very underrated fantasy back at this point and I think he might be a decent RB1. My strategy was to go with a WR1 rated lower on my board than Moreno in the third round, and then hope Moreno fell to me in the fourth. I think Moreno does fall to me 85-95 percent of the time since his ADP is currently 63.4.
Great pick by Fie, but you need have a few RB2s in you back pocket in case you go RB-WR-WR with your first three picks in this scenario. Derrick Ward, Chris Wells, Pierre Thomas and Willie Parker are all capable RB2 fantasy backs to be had in the fourth or fifth rounds. They are starters with very good run-blocking lines. I personally would like to then follow that up with Jamal Lewis or Darren Sproles in Rounds 5 or 6 depending on how things shake out.
In this draft, I was able to grab Darren Sproles at 8.02 and Fred Jackson at 9.10. These were complete steals. If LaDanian Tomlinson goes down, Sproles becomes an instantly capable RB1 or trade bait that can win you a championship. Fred Jackson will be starting the first few weeks for Buffalo (a team that upgraded its interior offensive line) and might not look back. I see great potential with those picks and was able to build a very good stable of four fantasy backs without having to invest two picks into this position between Rounds 2 and 6.
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