2009 Fantasy Football Mailbag
2009 Fantasy Football Mailbag Notes: Note that the e-mails I received have been italicized and left unedited. My responses follow them.
8/28/09
2009 Fantasy Football E-mails - Running Back Questions
When asked whether the Saints would employ a three-back rotation this season, coach Sean Payton responded, "I think so." Thomas (knee) may lose some touches in the Saints' backfield due to this development, reports the Times-Picayune. Any concerns over this?
My Response:
Sean Payton used Mike Bell a lot in the last preseason game to see if he could be the third running back. Bell looked good, but I would expect about 5-8 carries a game from him. I am slightly concerned because Payton is a bit of a lunatic and overthinks things... that's why I moved Pierre Thomas down just a bit in my 2009 Fantasy Football Rankings; I'd take Kevin Smith and Knowshon Moreno as sleepers before Thomas, whom I wouldn't touch until the third round because I'm scared to death of Payton's decision-making.
I'm hearing good things about Knowshon Moreno from everyone that paid attention to their opening preseason game. After your rave review, and considering I'm in a keeper league (12 teams, 0-2 keepers per year), I reached for him in the fourth to insure that I'd land him.
Now the question is, at what point do you think he will have a fantasy impact? He's my RB3, but D. Ward my current RB2 just took a solid hit with the bull***t scheme Coach Morris is planning to run. Considering he may not see any preseason activity, I'm sad to think he won't get to feed on the Cincy and Cleveland defenses Weeks 1 & 2. Any thoughts on this?
My Response:
(I had a different answer for this until news broke that Knowshon Moreno may be out the first week of the season. Here's what I wrote for my latest update in the 2009 Fantasy Football Preseason Stock page:
Now nearly two weeks removed from his knee sprain, Knowshon Moreno still isn't practicing. The Denver Post believes Moreno won't be at "full speed" by Week 1. I'm dropping Moreno a bit in my 2009 Fantasy Football Rankings, but not too much; this could actually be a blessing in disguise because there's a very good chance the Bengals will clobber the Moreno- and potentially Brandon Marshall-less Broncos in Week 1. This could force Josh Mishandles' hand into using Moreno as much as possible. Besides, once Moreno's healthy, he'll dominate for you later in the year when it matters most.
I know it has only been one weekend of preseason but, do you really think Donald Brown will kill it this season? I have a feeling he could be my No. 2 back, and if I am right then I can go crazy two out of the top four receivers and get possibly Brees or Manning, and Witten?
My Response:
I do think Donald Brown will kill it, but I wouldn't depend on it. I'd still draft safe RB1-2 players and then make Brown my RB3. If Addai steps up and the share is 50-50, you could be screwed.
I'm not sure how you can justify Michael Turner not being a top pick because of his carries where as you have Adrian Peterson as No. 1. Turner had a total of 382 touches in the regular season. [six catches.] And if you count the post season, Turner had a total 401 touches. Now Peterson had a total 384 touches in the regular season. And if you count the post season, 404 touches, which is three more than Turner.
To add to that, Turner only had 639 total touches in his 5-year career [including post season]. AP has a total of 660 touches in his two year career [in his post season]. I'm sure you see what I'm saying here. If you are saying the total touches will hamper Turner, how can you say it wont do the same to AP?
My Response:
The amount of touches isn't the only reason I don't like Turner. For one, his schedule is a lot tougher this year. Last season, he had all of his good games versus bad run defenses. Well, Turner doesn't get to play the AFC West and NFC North this time. Instead, he gets the NFC East and AFC East - two very difficult divisions.
Also, Turner is not a three-down running back, so if the Falcons are behind and need to throw the ball (they'll be behind more because of their tougher schedule and horrid defense) Turner won't be in the game. Jerious Norwood will get passes thrown his way.
Sound off on your opinion about these Fantasy Football Questions. If you try registering and you don't receive a confirmation e-mail, send me an e-mail and I'll manually register you.
2009 Fantasy Football Mailbag Archive:
Running Back Questions - Aug. 28
Clinton Portis vs. Michael Turner - Aug. 12
Turner Workload; Rosenfels Love - July 26
Turner Workload; Rosenfels Love - June 1
NFL Picks Week 9 - Nov. 7
Week 9 Fantasy Football Rankings - Nov. 7
Matt McGuire's 2010 NFL Mock Draft - Nov. 6
2010 NFL Mock Draft - Nov. 5
2011 NFL Mock Draft - Sept. 20
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