By Matt McGuire. June 6, 2009.
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In my time as a fantasy writer on WalterFootball.com, I have stressed to my audience that they are not getting enough insight on fantasy draft strategy from other fantasy websites, including ESPN.com, NFL.com, etc.
I want you to dominate your draft. The draft is where you can win your league, and one of my fundamental strategies I will discuss today might get you that sleeper on your team who breaks out, which can win you a championship.
When I draft on FantasyFootballCalculator.com, I see a very wrong strategy being taken by nearly half the owners in mock drafts: They pick their QB2 way too early.
Now, in order to logically explain my QB2 strategy, I first must need to emphasize why this position is overrated.
When will you use your QB2? Unless you are in a league that starts two quarterbacks, then you obviously know you will only use your QB2 when you bench your QB1.
My next question is: How often will you bench your QB1? After all, if you only bench your QB1 one or two times in a season, it obviously isn’t worth it to spend a mid-round pick on a QB2.
In order to learn how often you would bench your QB1, I looked at the top eight fantasy quarterbacks and when we might have benched these quarterbacks during the 2008 season. I also analyzed their stats and determined how often we would have been correct in benching these quarterbacks.
My eight quarterbacks that were very statistically impressive in 2008 were Philip Rivers, Drew Brees, Kurt Warner, Aaron Rodgers, Peyton Manning, Donovan McNabb, Jay Cutler and Tony Romo.
I think it is also important to note we are far more likely to bench a QB1 against a very good defense on the road. The only time we would ever bench a QB1 at home was when he played against an elite unit (Titans, Steelers, Ravens, etc.). I also only looked at the first 14 weeks since this is the time most people reserve for their fantasy regular seasons.
Let’s examine Rivers’ game log first. He played a very weak schedule in the AFC West, so the only game I think we would have benched him (in foresight) was Week 11 at Pittsburgh. Pittsburgh led the NFL in defensive YPA and also had 20 interceptions. I don’t think anybody would be wise to start Rivers. Rivers ended up having 164 yards, zero touchdowns, and two interceptions. Suffice to say, only benching him one week out of 14 is pretty good value for Rivers, and he had a dominant 2008 season.
The next QB1 is Brees. The only game I think we would have benched Brees was Week 7 at Carolina, but we still might have started him even then. He had 231 yards, zero touchdowns and one interception. This was pretty mediocre, but again, only one week benched out of 14 isn’t bad at all. This certainly isn’t helping the case to spend a seventh-round pick on your QB2.
Warner was next on my list. The only games I think we would have possibly benched Warner were Week 12 against the Giants and Week 13 at Philadelphia. In Week 12, Warner had a very good week going for 351 yards, one touchdown and one interception. We would have made a mistake here in benching him. Against Philly, he had 235 yards, three touchdowns, and three interceptions. Again, he had a solid week.
Rodgers was a pretty consistent producer last season, but we might have benched him Week 9 at Tennessee and Week 10 at Minnesota. Minnesota had the 21st-ranked pass defense, but we might have had a better matchup with our QB2 depending on who he was. Rodgers had a strong week against Tennessee, throwing for 314 yards, one touchdown and one interception. A mistake might have been made for us in Week 9. Minnesota shut down Rodgers for 142 yards, zero touchdowns and zero interceptions.
Manning year in, year out is one of the most consistent producers, but we might have benched him Week 6 against Baltimore, Week 8 at Tennessee, and Week 10 at Pittsburgh. He had solid performances against all of these units. Manning put up 271 yards, three touchdowns, zero interceptions against Baltimore; 223 yards, two scores, two picks versus Tennessee; and 240 yards, three touchdowns, zero interceptions at Pittsburgh. The case is being made here that a QB2 is getting more and more worthless if you have a very capable QB1.
McNabb is up next. We might have benched him Week 3 against Pittsburgh, Week 12 at Baltimore, and Week 14 at the New York Giants. McNabb had 196 yards, one touchdown, one interception against Pittsburgh; 59 yards, zero scores, two picks at Baltimore; and 191 yards, one touchdown, zero interceptions versus the Giants.
Cutler, as Walter and I projected, had a breakout season in 2008, but in Week 7 we might have benched him at New England. New England clamped down on Cutler for 168 yards, one touchdown, and two interceptions. Would you really be wise to spend a ninth-round draft pick on a QB2 to only start him in one game (plus bye week)?
Romo was injured from Weeks 7 to 9, but as you see of all these eight quarterbacks, he is the only one to miss significant time. Even though he missed the game at the Giants in Week 9, we probably still might have benched him. Against Pittsburgh in the cold in Week 14, we would have benched him and been correct because he compiled 210 yards, one touchdown, and three interceptions.
I know we have to bench all of these quarterbacks because of their bye weeks, but that isn’t enough of a reason to spend a valuable pick on a QB2.
Looking at these top eight quarterbacks, we have learned quite a bit about why the QB2 is such an overrated position, but let’s examine a few of my theories.
1. The QB2 rarely will start in your lineup if you are smart. The top eight or 10 quarterbacks in the NFL are very consistent, and they don’t face an elite defense really any more than two or three times in a season. Most of the time a team is playing against bad or average defenses. It doesn’t pay to draft a quarterback in the mid-rounds if you are only going to play him one to three times a year.
2. Even if you start a QB2, that doesn’t ensure he will produce better than the QB1 you benched. If you look at my game log analysis of these quarterbacks, nearly half the time the QB1 put up solid stats. Sometimes, you might have made a mistake even benching the QB1. Again, you are wasting spending a valuable draft pick on a backup quarterback too early in your fantasy draft.
3. You are better off drafting depth at running back or wide receiver than another quarterback. If you can get an extra player who can act as potential trade bait in the future or can jump in as a starter if your RB1 or WR2 gets injured, then that is much more valuable then drafting a QB2. If you already selected Tony Romo in the fifth round, and are looking at Jay Cutler in the eighth round, you are probably better off grabbing your TE1 in Greg Olsen or your RB4 in Fred Jackson. These players have so much more to offer than a QB2.
Another theory I disagree with is drafting a QB2 to trade him later on, trying to emphasize value over need in the draft. First of all, it is hard to work a trade in your favor with a quarterback on the table. There are so many capable fantasy options at quarterback, it is hardly a need as opposed to a wide receiver or running back.
I am just not a fan of drafting players in the mindset that you can easily trade them later on. If you haven’t worked out a trade during the draft with another owner, then don’t draft a quarterback early on with the intention of dealing him.
With that in mind, when is the right time to draft a quarterback in a standard league?
I emphasize building up your roster at running back and wide receiver so you can find sleepers and increase the odds of just getting pure value on your roster, rather than drafting your defense and kicker later on.
I think the best time to draft your QB2 is after the ninth round. After your first nine picks, your team should look something like this: QB1, RB1, RB2, RB3, WR1, WR2, WR3, RB/WR4, TE1.
When deciding on who your QB2 is going to be, don’t panic! After all, just because other teams are grabbing QB2s doesn’t mean you necessarily have to. If you continue to see value at RB or WR, then continue to emphasize value on your roster.
In my next Quarterback 2 article, I will give you my QB cheat sheet, which you can use to dominate your draft. For example, if you select Donovan McNabb in the sixth round, which backup should you be locked on toward the end of the draft? I’ll have all of that and more.
Walt’s Rebuttal
What Matt wrote makes a lot of sense. If you have a really good starting quarterback, you have no need for a QB2. However, things don’t always work out.
Matt listed eight elite signal-callers from 2008. However, what if you either drafted Tom Brady in the first two rounds, or selected Carson Palmer or Derek Anderson – two preseason top-10 quarterbacks a year ago – in Rounds 6 or 7? Brady was lost 20 minutes into the season; Palmer’s elbow debacled his 2008 campaign until Ryan Fitzpatrick took over for the rest of the year; and Anderson simply sucked at life.
If you spent a seventh- or an eighth-round choice on Jay Cutler or Matt Schaub to be your backup (I had both in one league), you may have won your championship. If you waited until the later rounds to grab Jason Campbell or Trent Edwards, chances are you finished the season without a playoff berth.
I’ve always been one to be cautious. If I already have my starting quarterback, and I’m in Round 7 or 8, and a signal caller is the best player available, I’ll take him. Even if your QB1 stays healthy, one of your fellow league members might be stuck with Campbell or Edwards as his starter. If that happens, you can treat that guy like Josh McDaniels or Eric Mangini, and rip him off.
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2010 Fantasy Football: Home
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