2010 Fantasy Football Rankings - Arizona Cardinals:
Matt Leinart, QB, Cardinals. Bye: 6.
Matt Leinart's arm strength, deep accuracy and love for football pales in comparison to Kurt Warner's. Those expecting Warner-esque numbers from Leinart will be really disappointed. In 3.5 starts back in 2007, Leinart compiled just 647 yards, two touchdowns and four interceptions. He's the reason why I'm very pessimistic about Larry Fitzgerald's 2010 fantasy season.
Chris Wells, RB, Cardinals. Bye: 6.
Chris Wells will probably be overdrafted in most leagues based solely on his potential. He scored six touchdowns in the final eight games of the 2009 season. However, I'm not as optimistic. With Kurt Warner gone, opposing defenses will be able to focus on shutting down Arizona's rushing attack. And don't forget that Tim Hightower will steal most of the receptions.
Projected 2010 Fantasy Stats: 1,000 rushing yards. 20 catches. 230 receiving yards. 7 total TDs.
Projected 2010 Fantasy Points: 165. Projected 2010 PPR Fantasy Points: 185.
Tim Hightower, RB, Cardinals. Bye: 6.
Tim Hightower rushed for 598 yards and eight touchdowns, and also caught 63 balls for 428 receiving yards last year. Sounds like a solid PPR flex running back. Unfortunately, that's not the case. Twelve of Hightower's 63 receptions came in Week 1. Of his eight scores, five occurred between Weeks 1-8. Furthermore, check out Hightower's rushing attempts from Week 13 on: 6, 2, 6, 10, 6, 7, 6. His role clearly diminished toward the end of the season.
Projected 2010 Fantasy Stats: 475 rushing yards. 45 catches. 315 receiving yards. 4 total TDs.
Projected 2010 Fantasy Points: 103. Projected 2010 PPR Fantasy Points: 148.
Larry Fitzgerald, WR, Cardinals. Bye: 6.
Mark my words, Larry Fitzgerald will be overdrafted in your league.
Matt Leinart isn't very good. At least he wasn't when he started in 2006 and 2007. Leinart checked down far too often and seldom went deep. He just doesn't have the arm or deep accuracy that Kurt Warner possessed.
In 2006, Fitzgerald had just 68 catches, 941 yards and six touchdowns in 13 games with Leinart as his starting quarterback. The following year, Leinart started five games, but rotated in and out of three with Warner.
I tracked every single reception Fitzgerald caught in 2007 thanks to NFL.com's Gamecenter. Here is how he fared with each quarterback (it adds up to 15 games because Fitzgerald missed one week):
With Leinart throwing Fitzgerald the ball (3.5 games): 15 catches, 212 yards. 0 TDs.
With Warner throwing Fitzgerald the ball (11.5 games): 85 catches, 1,197 yards. 10 TDs.
So don't believe any misleading articles suggesting Fitzgerald won't fall off. He will.
I think we can predict around 1,000-1,100 yards and 6-8 touchdowns. Not bad, but it's not what we've come to expect from Fitzgerald.
Projected 2010 Fantasy Stats: 83 catches. 1,100 yards. 8 total TDs.
Projected 2010 Fantasy Points: 158.
Projected 2010 PPR Fantasy Points: 241.
Steve Breaston, WR, Cardinals. Bye: 6.
Thanks to injuries and a slight decline from Kurt Warner, Steve Breaston saw his stats regress from 2008 (77 receptions, 1,006 yards, 3 TDs) to 2009 (55, 712, 3). As for 2010, there's good news and bad news. The good news is that Anquan Boldin is gone, so Breaston will receive more targets. The bad news is that Warner is gone as well. As I indicated in Larry Fitzgerald's capsule, the dropoff from Warner to Matt Leinart is a very significant one.
Projected 2010 Fantasy Stats: 65 catches. 780 yards. 3 total TDs.
Projected 2010 Fantasy Points: 96.
Projected 2010 PPR Fantasy Points: 161.
Early Doucet, WR, Cardinals. Bye: 6.
Under the right conditions, Early Doucet would have been a 2010 Fantasy Football sleeper of mine. Doucet caught six passes for 77 yards and two touchdowns in the opening round of the playoffs, and followed that up with eight grabs for 68 yards in a loss to the Saints six days later. Unfortunately, Kurt Warner is gone.
Projected 2010 Fantasy Stats: 48 catches. 580 yards. 3 total TDs.
Projected 2010 Fantasy Points: 76.
Projected 2010 PPR Fantasy Points: 124.
Andre Roberts, WR, Cardinals. Bye: 6.
I love Andre Roberts as a long-term fantasy and real-life sleeper. He barely dropped any balls in college and he's a prolific route-runner. Unfortunately, Ken Whisenhunt typically doesn't play rookies. And even if he did, Matt Leinart's the quarterback. Draft Roberts in your keeper leagues.
Projected 2010 Fantasy Stats: 15 catches. 180 yards. 0 total TDs.
Projected 2010 Fantasy Points: 18.
Projected 2010 PPR Fantasy Points: 33.
Jay Feely, Cardinals. Bye: 6.
With Matt Leinart as his quarterback, Jay Feely won't have many opportunities to kick field goals and extra points this season.
Projected 2010 Fantasy Stats: 23-26 FG (1-1 from 50+; 5-7 from 40-49). 30 XP.
Projected 2010 Fantasy Points: 105.
Arizona Cardinals. Bye: 6.
Not a fantasy defense I'd like to have. Now that Kurt Warner is gone, the Cardinals won't accumulate as many sacks and turnovers because they won't be blowing out as many teams.
I have no problems with your mock draft for the Raiders. I'm sure you're aware of the need at MLB, but doubling up on defensive tackles would make as much sense given the lack of pass rush outside of Mack.
@jsemmens I've been to the Big Board in the past, but it's still an inefficient way of going about a mock. Not to mention, reports and the people writing them change, no? I come to Walt's site because I used to like his insight on every player. Now, it's simply team needs and a very limited amount of actual analysis. You definitely need SOME amount of explanation behind a pick with regards to team need, but you need much more of the player evaluation angle. Any dummy can write why a particular team "needs" a specific position; it takes a pretty good eye to understand what player needs to fill it. Again, just my 2 cents.
Here's my mock based on team need, prospect value and prevailing opinion as well as some ideas of my own. Please let me know about the team(s) that you follow more closely, and any picks that you agree or disagree with. Please comment, and feel free to rate.