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2011 Fantasy Football: Value Comparison



E-mailer Samuel Gold decided to compare my 2011 Fantasy Football Rankings with ESPN's and the Average Draft Position (ADP) to find which players are overvalued or undervalued. He sent the following e-mail over, which I thought was very interesting:


2011 Fantasy Football Values - Quarterbacks:

  • QB Eagles No. 7 is way overvalued. Averaging around Pick 6 is absolutely absurd comparing to your rank of 25.

  • Aaron Rodgers, Tom Brady, Drew Brees and Tony Romo all get picked close to their averages.

  • Ben Roethlisberger (my usual target for fantasy QB) is valued at 47 by you, but on average goes around pick 68. Great value here!





    2011 Fantasy Football Values - Running Backs:

  • Darren McFadden is good value averaging around Pick 14; your pick 9.

  • Felix Jones averages around pick 34, with your pick being pick 14, which provides major value here. ESPN has him as pick 47 overall. Which is useful to know because I know the people I draft with use ESPN almost religiously. Money!

  • Matt Forte and Frank Gore all also good value picks averaging at (19 for Gore and 23 for Forte).

  • Michael Turner is overvalued massively (ADP: 16) with your pick at 34. It is probably best to avoid him if you want value with your guide.

  • Tim Hightower (ADP: 67, Walt: 39) and Chris Wells (ADP: 62, Walt: 42) are your money picks for RB2 in the later rounds. A note about Tim Hightower: A bunch of articles via Yardbarker, Yahoo and ESPN have been published and they are all pushing hardcore for people to draft him in their leagues. His ADP will shift closer to yours significantly before opening day.

  • James Starks (ADP: 101, Walt: 63) good value in the 90s.





    2011 Fantasy Football Values - Wide Receivers:

  • I absolutely love Calvin Johnson this year, but unfortunately you get absolutely zero value from him in terms of ADP.

  • Larry Fitzgerald, Hakeem Nicks and Greg Jennings are all similar to Calvin. No value here.

  • Roddy White is way overvalued. ESPN has him as the No. 2 receiver in the draft, so that could very well explain that.

  • Vincent Jackson (ADP: 17, Walt: 27, ESPN: 26) is way overvalued. People want his 2009 performance and they are hyping him up.

  • Brandon Lloyd (ADP: 50, Walt: 35, ESPN: 45) is a great value pick!

  • Dwayne Bowe/Desean Jackson are all overvalued. Which is expected.




    2011 Fantasy Football Values - Tight Ends:

  • Jermichael Finley is way overvalued.

  • Jimmy Graham is way undervalued. But that could change; similar story like Hightower. He is the tight end sleeper to grab this year.

    Download 2011 Fantasy Football Values Spreadsheet (2007 Excel)

    Download 2011 Fantasy Football Values Spreadsheet (1997-2003 Excel)




    Leave a comment

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    Tessie 09-26-2011 09:46 pm xxx.xxx.xxx5.12 (total posts: 1)
    12     12

    Oh yeah, fbaulous stuff there you!
    Samuel Gold 09-02-2011 07:23 pm xxx.xxx.xxx70.4 (total posts: 1)
    23     15

    @Funk - These notes are actually mine. I actually completely agree with Walt's criticism on Vick and ignored him in all my drafts. WAY too risky, but then again this is all personal opinions, unless you are a prophet.

    @Spy - Truth, man. I am fortunate to know this type of information in advance. But it would be interesting to have ESPN's, CBS's or another popular ranking sites fantasy draft in front of you to see what you think they are following. A lot of extra work, but could be worth it.
    Funk 09-01-2011 05:02 pm xxx.xxx.xxx5.10 (total posts: 1)
    200     190

    Walt- Why are you still commenting or rating Vick? It has become clear you dislike him on a personal level so no one will take your critiques of him seriously anyway. I can agree he is over-rated and may be hurt due to poor O-line protection during the season, but just saying what everyone else is thinking anytime you comment on him.
    Spy 09-01-2011 10:05 am xxx.xxx.xxx38.4 (total posts: 1)
    15     13

    Now all I have to figure out is what my opponents use as their primary source of intelligence...
    Walter 08-31-2011 01:39 pm xxx.xxx.xxx4.88 (total posts: 1)
    12     14

    First comment... we're going to have comment boards like this all over the site soon. We're still working out the kinks, so this is not the finished product.



    More 2011 Fantasy Football Articles:
    2011 Fantasy Football: Home

    2011 Fantasy Football Rankings:
    2011 Fantasy Football Rankings: Quarterbacks - 9/8 (Walt)
    2011 Fantasy Football Rankings: Running Backs - 9/8 (Walt)
    2011 Fantasy Football Rankings: Wide Receivers - 9/8 (Walt)
    2011 Fantasy Football Rankings: Tight Ends - 9/8 (Walt)
    2011 Fantasy Football Rankings: Defenses - 9/1 (Walt)
    2011 Fantasy Football Rankings: Kickers - 6/26 (Walt)
    2011 Fantasy Football Downloadable Spreadsheets - 9/8 (Walt)
    2011 Fantasy Football Dynasty Rookie Rankings - 8/27 (Walt)
    2011 Fantasy Football Auction Values - 8/27 (Walt)

    2011 Fantasy Football Cheat Sheets:
    2011 Fantasy Football Cheat Sheet: Top 150 Traditional - 9/8 (Walt)
    2011 Fantasy Football Cheat Sheet: Top 150 PPR - 9/8 (Walt)
    2011 Fantasy Football Cheat Sheet: Top 150 Touchdown - 9/8 (Walt)

    2011 Fantasy Football Mock Drafts:
    2011 Fantasy Football Mock Draft: Real League Draft - 8/31 (Walt)
    2011 Fantasy Football Mock Draft: Fake Mock - 8/25 (Walt)
    2011 Fantasy Football Experts Draft - 8/25 (Walt)
    2011 Fantasy Football Mock Draft: Forum 2-QB Mock - 7/21 (Walt)
    2011 Fantasy Football: Mock Draft Scenarios - 7/17 (Walt)
    2011 Fantasy Football Auction: Mock PPR Auction - 7/14 (Walt)
    2011 Fantasy Football Mock Draft: Forum PPR Mock - 7/7 (Walt)
    2011 Fantasy Football Mock Draft: Forum Mock - 7/3 (Walt)
    2011 Fantasy Football Mock Draft: Four-Man PPR Draft - 6/19 (Walt)
    2011 Fantasy Football Draft: Fox Sports - 5/5 (Walt)

    2011 Fantasy Football Articles:
    2011 Fantasy Football Injury Reports: Week 2 - 9/18 (Walt)
    2011 Fantasy Football Weekly Rankings: Week 2 - 9/18 (Walt)
    2011 Fantasy Football: Week 2 Add/Drop - 9/13 (Walt)
    2011 Fantasy Football: Training Camp Stock - 9/8 (Walt)
    2011 Fantasy Football: Start Em, Sit Em - 9/6 (Walt)
    2011 Fantasy Football: Preseason Stock - 9/3 (Walt)
    2011 Preseason Recap and Fantasy Football Notes - 9/3 (Walt)
    2011 Fantasy Football: Preseason Targets - 9/3 (Walt)
    2011 Fantasy Football: Late-Round Sleepers - 9/1 (Walt)
    2011 Fantasy Football: Round-by-Round Strategy - 9/1 (Walt)
    2011 Fantasy Football: Value Comparison - 9/1
    2011 Fantasy Football: Must-Have Players - 8/24 (Walt)
    2011 Fantasy Football: Busts, Players to Avoid - 7/25 (Walt)
    2011 Fantasy Football Mailbag - 7/24 (Walt)
    2011 Fantasy Football Sleepers - 7/23 (Walt)
    2011 Fantasy Football: Various League Strategy - 7/18 (Walt)
    2011 Fantasy Football: Three-Dimensional Running Backs - 7/16 (Walt)
    2011 Fantasy Football: ADP Analysis - 7/15 (Walt)
    2011 Fantasy Football: First-Round Bust History - 7/10 (Walt)
    2011 Fantasy Football Mailbag - 7/9 (Walt)
    2011 Fantasy Football Mailbag - 7/4 (Walt)
    2011 Fantasy Football Mock Draft Analysis - 7/1 (Walt)
    2011 Fantasy Football Mailbag - 6/18 (Walt)
    2011 Fantasy Football Mailbag - 6/12 (Walt)
    2011 Fantasy Football Mailbag - 6/5 (Walt)
    2011 Fantasy Football: Stock Up (Draft) - 5/6 (Walt)
    2011 Fantasy Football: Stock Down (Draft) - 5/6 (Walt)
    2010 Fantasy Football: Buy Low - 4/8 (Walt)
    2011 Fantasy Football: Defense Strategy - 4/8 (Walt)
    Running Backs with Most Carries - 4/8 (Walt)




    2012 Fantasy Football Rankings - May 24


    2013 NFL Mock Draft - May 22


    Charlie's 2013 NFL Mock Draft - May 21


    2012 NBA Mock Draft - May 19


    2013 NBA Mock Draft - May 7




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