This is a list of my top 2017 fantasy football busts - players you should avoid unless they fall far in your draft. The Average Draft Position (ADP) is found on FantasyFootballCalculator.com.
I was dead on with some of my busts last year, namely Jamaal Charles, Matt Forte, Arian Foster, Chris Ivory and Doug Martin, all of whom were being chosen in the sixth round or earlier. However, I whiffed big time on two players: Devonta Freeman and Julian Edelman.
Ty Montgomery, RB, Packers. ADP: 4.02.
Ty Montgomery didn't have a good preseason debut. He was stuffed by Brandon Graham on his first run, and then he lost a fumble on his second carry. He was stuffed again on his third and final try. In total, his three carries went for zero yards. Meanwhile, rookie Jamaal Williams looked better, as he was actually able to move the pile on his runs. He managed 14 yards on five carries, looking good in the process. Montgomery was better versus Denver, but I still think it's very possible that Montgomery and Williams could end up splitting the workload evenly, making Montgomery a reach at his 3.12 ADP.
LeGarrette Blount, RB, Eagles. ADP: 6.02.
LeGarrette Blount will be a nice option in touchdown-only leagues this season, but he's sharing touches with too many running backs to warrant an early selection in the sixth round. Blount's ADP should be in Round 8-9 or so in standard leagues. He has struggled in the preseason thus far, so I dislike him even more now. It's possible that Wendell Smallwood could lead the Eagles in rushing yards.
Terrelle Pryor, WR, Redskins. ADP: 3.07.
I don't hate Terrelle Pryor very much. I think he comes with risk, however, as he'll be playing in a new offense. He's also just a one-hit wonder, and I have to think that his production could drop now that teams realize they have to pay attention to him. It's also worth noting that Jamison Crowder has been Kirk Cousins' top receiver target throughout OTAs, while Pryor and Cousins haven't appeared to be on the same page during the preseason games. I'd much rather have Crowder in the sixth round than Pryor in the third.
Brandon Marshall, WR, Giants. ADP: 5.08.
Spending a fifth-round pick on a declining, 33-year-old receiver playing in a stagnant offense with a decaying quarterback sounds awful. If you're spending a pick on Brandon Marshall, and it's in a single-digit round, you're doing it wrong.
Mike Gillislee, RB, Patriots. ADP: 5.07.
There will be weeks where Mike Gillislee dominates. However, there will also be weeks where he is absent from the game plan. Good luck trying to figure out Bill Belichick with your fifth-round pick!
Eddie Lacy, RB, Seahawks. ADP: 8.03.
No one should even be thinking about selecting Eddie Lacy prior to the ninth round, and even that's too early. Lacy in the sixth frame a couple of weeks ago was mystifying. The eighth round is better, but it was still too early. He's going to be sharing the workload with Thomas Rawls and C.J. Prosise, and he won't have nearly as talented of an offensive line blocking for him in Seattle. I'm also not even convinced he's going to make the final 53-man roster.
Kirk Cousins, QB, Redskins. ADP: 8.01.
Kirk Cousins' ADP is atop the eighth round, but he's still being chosen as the ninth quarterback, meaning he's been taken a starter in most leagues. Cousins lost his top two receivers, so I'm not in favor of selecting him so early.
DeMarco Murray, RB, Titans. ADP: 1.12.
I don't hate DeMarco Murray this year, but he's going a bit too early for my liking. I get the feeling that he's due to have another injury-prone season, but even if that doesn't happen, Derrick Henry will be around to take some of the workload.
Jarvis Landry, WR, Dolphins. ADP: 6.07.
Jarvis Landry at 6.07 in a PPR league sounds reasonable. Not in a standard format, however. Landry doesn't catch many touchdowns, and Ryan Tannehill has too many weapons at his disposal to keep Landry afloat as a fantasy WR2.
Jeremy Maclin, WR, Ravens. ADP: 8.10.
Maybe an eighth-round pick can't really be a bust, but I haven't liked what I've seen from Jeremy Maclin this preseason. Sure, Joe Flacco hasn't played, but Maclin has looked confused on offense, almost as if he doesn't know the playbook. This can't bode well for his 2017 campaign.
Andrew Luck, QB, Colts. ADP: 8.08.
Andrew Luck reportedly is a long shot to play in Week 1, and he could miss several games. I'd take him in the double-digit rounds, but not anytime beforehand.