NBA Picks (Jan. 2-8): 1-1-1 (-$20)
NBA Picks (Jan. 9-15): 5-4 (+$20)
NBA Picks (Jan. 16-22): 3-5 (-$590)
NBA Picks (Jan. 23-29): 1-4 (-$1,000)
NBA Picks (Jan. 30-Feb. 5): 4-7 (-$725)
NBA Picks (March 31-April 1): 3-0 (+$600)
NBA Picks (April 2-8): 6-3 (+$540)
NBA Picks (April 9-15): 4-3 (+$30)
NBA Picks (April 16-22): 4-5 (-$200)
NBA Picks (April 23-27): 1-1 (-$20)
NBA Picks (Playoffs Round 1): 4-5 (-$510)
2011-12 NBA Picks (Season): 38-46-1 (-$3,005)
2010-11 NBA Picks (Season): 113-89-4 (+$2,690)
2009-10 NBA Picks (Season): 116-98-4 (+$1,375)
2008-09 NBA Picks (Season): 122-119-6 (-$2,280)
2007-08 NBA Picks (Season): 104-88-8 (+$1,485)
Follow @walterfootball for updates.
Orlando Magic at Indiana Pacers.
Line: Pacers by 10.5.
7:05 PM ET (Game 715-716)
The Spurs were up 21 with six minutes remaining. They nearly blew the cover, but were still leading by eight as time was winding down. They had the cover – until a Jazz player hit a meaningless layup with 1.4 seconds on the clock. Unreal.
I’m taking Orlando. I can’t imagine it giving up, especially when it already has one victory at Indiana.
NBA Pick: Magic +10.5 (2 Units)
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San Antonio Spurs at Utah Jazz.
Line: Spurs by 7.5.
8:05 PM ET (Game 711-712)
Miami lacks the heart of a champion. If that team had any guts, it would have eliminated the Knicks yesterday, like the Thunder did to the Mavericks on Saturday, and like the Spurs will do to the Jazz tonight. Poor Utah has been playing hard, but it’s just outmatched.
NBA Pick: Spurs -7.5 (2 Units) — Incorrect; -$220
Miami Heat at New York Knicks.
Line: Heat by 8.
3:30 PM ET (Game 703-704)
Miami played like crap Thursday night, while New York battled them tough for three quarters. The Heat still won by 17. The Knicks have no chance. They came into the 2011-12 campaign with big expectations, and they now know that their season is over. I’ll be shocked if they don’t completely roll over and die. This should be a blowout.
NBA Pick: Heat -8 (3 Units) — Incorrect; -$330
Oklahoma City Thunder at Dallas Mavericks.
Line: Thunder by 2.
7:30 PM ET (Game 549-550)
The Mavericks looked like they mailed it in a couple of nights ago. The series is now 3-0, and it will be 4-0 after tonight.
NBA Pick: Thunder -2 (2 Units) — Correct; +$200
Atlanta Hawks at Boston Celtics.
Line: Celtics by 7.5.
7:30 PM ET (Game 539-540)
This is a pretty big number. The Hawks lost to the Celtics in Game 2 because they didn’t take Boston seriously without Rajon Rondo. They should be able to cover and perhaps even win.
NBA Pick: Hawks +7.5 (1 Unit) — Correct; +$100
Miami Heat at New York Knicks.
Line: Heat by 5.
7:00 PM ET (Game 535-536)
Everyone and their evil stepsister is betting Miami today because Amare Stoudemire is out. I’m looking at this differently. Selfish douche Carmelo Anthony plays better without Stoudemire, so we’re getting good line value with New York. Also, this is do or die for the Knicks. If they lose this contest, they won’t show up for Game 4.
NBA Pick: Knicks +5 (2 Units) — Incorrect; -$220
Los Angeles Clippers at Memphis Grizzlies.
Line: Grizzlies by 6.5.
9:30 PM ET (Game 533-534)
I don’t understand how the Bulls lost last night. They were up by eight at halftime. I switched over to the Flyers game. Then I took a crap. The next thing I knew, the Sixers were up 16. What the hell?
The Grizzlies fell asleep against the Clippers on Sunday night. They won’t make that same mistake again.
NBA Pick: Grizzlies -6.5 (2 Units) — Correct; +$200
Philadelphia 76ers at Chicago Bulls.
Line: Bulls by 6.5.
8:00 PM ET (Game 525-526)
One tactic that I use in the NFL that also works in the NBA is to bet on a good team that just lost its superstar to injury. Good teams tend to bounce back, and I believe the Bulls will be out to prove that they can win without Derrick Rose. And besides, the Sixers stink.
NBA Pick: Bulls -6.5 (3 Units) — Incorrect; -$330
Orlando Magic at Indiana Pacers.
Line: Pacers by 9.5.
7:30 PM ET (Game 519-520)
What the hell happened last night? The Grizzlies were up by like 30 when I shut the TV off. I was expecting to be $100 richer in my account, yet I somehow lost $110. How’d the Clippers win? Ugh.
I like the Pacers tonight. The Magic gave maximum effort in Game 1 and won’t be able to match it in this contest. This is a must-win for Indiana.
NBA Pick: Pacers -9.5 (2 Units) — Correct; +$200
Los Angeles Clippers at Memphis Grizzlies.
Line: Grizzlies by 5.5.
9:30 PM ET (Game 515-516)
The Clippers stumbled down the stretch, losing three of four and failing to cover all of those contests. They haven’t been in the playoffs yet, so I like the battle-tested Grizzlies, whom many consider to be the best team in the West despite the fact that they don’t have a superstar – which is perhaps why the public is betting on Los Angeles. It’s worth noting that despite the action on the Clippers, this spread has risen from -3.5 to -5.5.
NBA Pick: Grizzlies -5.5 (1 Unit) — Incorrect; -$110
Philadelphia 76ers at New Jersey Nets.
Line: 76ers by 10.
7:00 PM ET (Game 503-504)
I’m fading the two Eastern teams attempting to make the playoffs. Wait, didn’t I write that recently? And didn’t that strategy completely blow up in my face? Meh.
NBA Pick: Nets +10 (2 Units) — Incorrect; -$220
Toronto Raptors at Milwaukee Bucks.
Line: Bucks by 10.
8:00 PM ET (Game 509-510)
The Bucks have dropped five out of seven. They don’t deserve to be favored by 10 points.
NBA Pick: Raptors +10 (2 Units) — Correct; +$200
Philadelphia 76ers at Indiana Pacers.
Line: Pacers by 4.5.
7:00 PM ET (Game 503-504)
I’m fading the two Eastern teams attempting to make the playoffs. The Suxers are terrible and can’t beat any good teams. The Pacers, on the other hand, are on fire.
NBA Pick: Pacers -4.5 (2 Units) — Incorrect; -$220
New Jersey Nets at Milwaukee Bucks.
Line: Bucks by 9.5.
8:30 PM ET (Game 513-514)
The Bucks are also terrible. They’ve dropped five of six, so why are they supposed to beat New Jersey by double digits? The Nets played the Heat and Knicks within 10 recently.
NBA Pick: Nets +9.5 (2 Units) — Incorrect; -$220
Los Angeles Lakers at San Antonio Spurs.
Line: Spurs by 6.5.
9:35 PM ET (Game 709-710)
The Spurs sat everyone on Wednesday, saving their energy for this contest. They’ll be ready to destroy the Lakers, who may not be functioning well in the wake of Kobe Bryant’s return to the lineup. Bryant probably won’t be close to 100 percent, and he’ll likely disrupt the chemistry Los Angeles developed in his absence.
NBA Pick: Spurs -6.5 (2 Units) — Correct; +$200
Milwaukee Bucks at Indiana Pacers.
Line: Pacers by 5.5.
7:00 PM ET (Game 501-502)
The Bucks are capsizing, while the Pacers are on fire. If that’s not bad enough, Milwaukee’s playing on no rest, while Indiana just had a night off.
NBA Pick: Pacers -5.5 (2 Units) — Correct; +$200
Houston Rockets at New Orleans Hornets.
Line: Rockets by 5.
8:00 PM ET (Game 505-506)
I don’t know what has happened with the Rockets, but they’ve dropped five in a row, both straight up and against the spread. I don’t get how they’re favored by five on the road against a frisky New Orleans team that is 6-3 in its previous nine games.
NBA Pick: Hornets +5 (2 Units) — Correct; +$200
San Antonio Spurs at Sacramento Kings.
Line: Spurs by 3.5.
10:00 PM ET (Game 723-724)
The Spurs are playing the final contest of a back-to-back-to-back slate, so this would be a good time to sit Tim Duncan and the other veterans. That seems to be the strategy because Duncan is listed as doubtful. The Spurs are 0-3 without Duncan this year.
NBA Pick: Kings +3.5 (2 Units) — Incorrect; -$220
Los Angeles Lakers at Golden State Warriors.
Line: Lakers by 6.5.
10:30 PM ET (Game 727-728)
The Lakers were having success without Kobe Bryant, but last night’s loss to the Spurs was a reality check. I expect them to struggle going forward. Golden State has played close games with the Clippers and Mavericks recently, so they should be able to cover against the Bryant-less Lakers.
NBA Pick: Warriors +6.5 (2 Units) — Incorrect; -$220
Indiana Pacers at Philadelphia 76ers.
Line: 76ers by 3.5.
7:00 PM ET (Game 501-502)
The 76ers took the Magic lightly last night. This is almost a must-win. The Pacers, meanwhile, don’t really have anything to play for because they’re locked into their seed.
NBA Pick: 76ers -3.5 (2 Units) — Incorrect; -$220
Miami Heat at New Jersey Nets.
Line: Heat by 8.
7:30 PM ET (Game 709-710)
The Heat is 5-8 against the spread this year on no rest playing a team that has had at least one night off. Miami just had a tough battle against the Knicks, and seeing as how it’s 3.5 games behind the Bulls, this contest is essentially meaningless. The Nets will be up for the Heat, so they’ll try much harder than the Heat.
Update: I’m going to add a unit to the Nets. The more I think about it, the more I like them tonight.
NBA Pick: Nets +8 (2 Units), Nets +8.5 (1 Unit) — Correct; +$300
Chicago Bulls at Detroit Pistons.
Line: Bulls by 9.
6:00 PM ET (Game 507-508)
The Pistons mailed in Friday night’s game against the Bucks, so why would I pick them today? Well, two reasons. First, they’ll play hard tonight because Chicago has beaten them in 14 straight meetings. Yes, the Pistons sadly have not beaten the Bulls since 2008. They’ll want a victory over their hated rival. Second, Chicago just defeated the Heat. The last time the Bulls slew Miami, they lost to the Blazers at home in their next game.
NBA Pick: Pistons +9 (2 Units) — Correct; +$200
Oklahoma City Thunder at Minnesota Timberwolves.
Line: Thunder by 11.
8:00 PM ET (Game 709-710)
I don’t know what the hell happened yesterday, but hopefully I’ll get to redeem myself by going against the best team in the NBA. The Thunder is 4-6 against the spread this year on no rest playing a team that has had at least one night off. Oklahoma City really doesn’t have anything to play for in this contest, while the Timberwolves are at least giving maximum effort despite losing Kevin Love.
NBA Pick: Timberwolves +11 (2 Units) — Correct; +$200
New Jersey Nets at Philadelphia 76ers.
Line: 76ers by 11.5.
7:00 PM ET (Game 507-508)
I’m going to roll with the Sixers until further notice. As I wrote on Wednesday, this team has a new-found confidence because Spencer Hawes is healthy for the first time since the beginning of the season. The Nets are playing terrible basketball right now, so this should be an easy blowout.
NBA Pick: 76ers -11.5 (2 Units) — Incorrect; -$220
Milwaukee Bucks at Detroit Pistons.
Line: Bucks by 5.
8:00 PM ET (Game 517-518)
The Bucks are capsizing. They lost two important home games after nearly going down to the Bobcats and Cavaliers as hosts. I don’t think they deserve to be a five-point favorite on the road. The Pistons, who are 6-4 in their previous 10 games, should be able to win straight up.
NBA Pick: Pistons +5 (2 Units) — Incorrect; -$220
Philadelphia 76ers at Toronto Raptors.
Line: 76ers by 4.
7:00 PM ET (Game 501-502)
Wow, where did that come from? The Sixers played their best basketball in two months against the Nets last night. The catalyst was Spencer Hawes. He looked healthy for the first time since the beginning of the season. Philly seems like it has so much more confidence now, so I think Doug Collins’ group will avenge its 20-point loss to the Raptors. Toronto is in a bit of a funk after playing so well a couple of weeks ago.
NBA Pick: 76ers -4 (2 Units) — Correct; +$200
Philadelphia 76ers at New Jersey Nets.
Line: 76ers by 5.5.
7:30 PM ET (Game 707-708)
The 76ers are terrible. Absolutely terrible. The only team playing worse basketball right now in the NBA is Charlotte. The Nets have been solid lately (6-3 in their last nine), and they should be able to win this game pretty easily.
NBA Pick: Nets +5.5 (3 Units) — Incorrect; -$330
Los Angeles Lakers at New Orleans Hornets.
Line: Lakers by 3.5.
8:00 PM ET (Game 507-508)
I’m fading the overrated Lakers again. They’re playing terribly right now, yet they continue to get tons of action going their way. The Hornets have covered seven of their previous 10, which includes a close loss at Los Angeles.
NBA Pick: Hornets +3.5 (2 Units) — Correct; +$200
Philadelphia 76ers at Boston Celtics.
Line: Celtics by 3.5.
6:00 PM ET (Game 705-706)
I hate the fact that there’s so much reverse line movement in this game, but I still like the Celtics a lot. They’re playing really well right now and will be seeking double revenge. The 76ers, meanwhile, are one of the worst teams in the NBA at the moment. They can’t beat anyone. They’re getting blown out by the likes of Washington and Toronto.
NBA Pick: Celtics -3.5 (2 Units) — Correct; +$200
Los Angeles Lakers at Phoenix Suns.
Line: Pick.
10:00 PM ET (Game 513-514)
All the Lakers have to do is beat the Suns? Easy money! That’s what everyone is thinking apparently because there’s a ton of action coming in on Los Angeles. I’m going with Phoenix. As I’ve written ad nauseum lately, the Lakers are really overrated. The Suns are playing better basketball right now.
NBA Pick: Suns PK (2 Units) — Correct; +$200
Houston Rockets at Los Angeles Lakers.
Line: Lakers by 5.5.
10:30 PM ET (Game 721-722)
Surprise, surprise, I’m fading the overrated Lakers again. One win over the Clippers isn’t going to convince me that they’re suddenly a good team. The Rockets are in a good spot anyway, coming off three days of rest. They’ve spent a lot of time preparing for this game. It’s also worth noting that despite lots of action on the Lakers, this spread has dropped from -7 to -5.5.
NBA Pick: Rockets +5.5 (2 Units) — Correct; +$200
New York Knicks at Orlando Magic.
Line: Magic by 3.
7:00 PM ET (Game 501-502)
Orlando is a complete mess right now. The vastly overrated Dwight Howard has demanded for Stan Van Gundy to be fired, so this team, which is on a four-game losing streak, will definitely be distracted tonight. I can see Howard making this type of demand if he had any sort of offensive game more than five feet away from the basket, but it wouldn’t surprise me if the Magic front office met the demands of their “superstar.”
NBA Pick: Knicks +3 (2 Units) — Correct; +$200
Toronto Raptors at Philadelphia 76ers.
Line: 76ers by 8.5.
7:00 PM ET (Game 703-704)
The meaningless shot the 76ers hit last night with 10 seconds remaining to get the cover… FML.
I’m basically doing the same thing I did yesterday – fading Philly and the Lakers. The 76ers are declining team right now playing with little confidence. The Raptors have won three of four, so I like them to stay within the number.
NBA Pick: Raptors +8.5 (2 Units) — Correct; +$200
Los Angeles Lakers at Los Angeles Clippers.
Line: Clippers by 3.
10:30 PM ET (Game 723-724)
The Lakers continue to be overrated. People love betting on them because they are the Lakers, but they’re not very good. The Clippers are on fire.
NBA Pick: Clippers -3 (2 Units) — Incorrect; -$220
Philadelphia 76ers at Miami Heat.
Line: Heat by 8.
7:30 PM ET (Game 659-660)
I hate betting the NBA sometimes because teams occasionally mail it in like the Mavericks did last night. Their lack of effort was alarming. These idiot players know that they’re getting six-eight figures to play basketball, right? Not giving 100 percent every single game is inexcusable.
I like two games tonight. I’m fading the Sixers in this spot. They have a mental hurdle that they just can’t overcome against Miami. The Heat, meanwhile, is out to prove that Sunday’s loss was a fluke. Miami is 4-1 against the spread this year coming off a double-digit loss.
NBA Pick: Heat -8 (2 Units) — Incorrect; -$220
New Jersey Nets at Los Angeles Lakers.
Line: Lakers by 9.
10:30 PM ET (Game 665-666)
I’m fading the overrated Lakers again. They nearly lost to the Hornets and had to battle the Warriors to the very end recently. The Nets have won four of five, so they’ll have confidence that they can knock off Los Angeles.
NBA Pick: Nets +9 (2 Units) — Correct; +$200
Los Angeles Clippers at Dallas Mavericks.
Line: Mavericks by 4.5.
8:30 PM ET (Game 607-608)
The Clippers have won five in a row by shooting at least 50 percent from the field in each contest. This isn’t much of a surprise because they’ve beaten up on teams that don’t play good defense. The Mavericks do. In fact, they’ve surrendered 50-percent shooting only four times all year. Add in the fact that they’re playing great basketball right now – they’ve won seven out of 10 – and I like them tonight over a Clipper squad that hasn’t been very good overall since losing Chauncey Billups.
NBA Pick: Mavericks -4.5 (2 Units) — Incorrect; -$220
Washington Bullets at Toronto Raptors.
Line: Raptors by 6.5.
6:00 PM ET (Game 505-506)
It sounds odd to say this, but Washington has played quality basketball lately. The Bullets nearly took down Indiana and then slaughtered the 76ers. What sparked this was a recent trade in which they acquired Nene. He’s a professional basketball player (unlike JaVale McGee and other bums), and the rest of the team has responded to him. I think they’re going to close out the season on a strong note.
Update: Just became aware that Nene might miss this game. I’ll keep you updated.
NBA Pick: Bullets +6.5 (TBA Units) — No action
Golden State Warriors at Los Angeles Lakers.
Line: Lakers by 10.
9:30 PM ET (Game 515-516)
I’m fading the Lakers again. They are so overrated. They nearly lost to the Hornets yesterday, for crying out loud. The Warriors nearly beat the Lakers on March 27, losing by only three at home, so we know that they can hang with them.
NBA Pick: Warriors +10 (2 Units) — Correct; +$200
New Orleans Hornets at Los Angeles Lakers.
Line: Lakers by 12.5.
3:30 PM ET (Game 801-802)
I took a much-needed break, and I’m back to lose more money. Awesome. I like the Hornets to cover the spread because the Lakers are really overrated. It’s no accident that they’re 1-4 against the spread as double-digit favorites this year.
NBA Pick: Hornets +12.5 (2 Units) — Correct; +$200
Cleveland Cavaliers at New York Knicks.
Line: Knicks by 10.5.
7:30 PM ET (Game 803-804)
I’m adding another pick (it’s 6:32 as of this writing). The Cavaliers are playing awful basketball right now. They’re getting blown out by crappy teams. The Knicks, meanwhile, need this to get over .500. They have two days off after this contest, so they can bring 100 percent without sacrificing anything.
NBA Pick: Knicks -10.5 (2 Units) — Correct; +$200
New Orleans Hornets at Detroit Pistons.
Line: Hornets by 1.
7:30 PM ET (Game 509-510)
I hope all of you made money by going against me last night. I’m fading the Pistons again because of the back-to-back situation following the long road trip.
I was looking at all of the game logs this morning, and I noticed something – teams that have back-to-back games have usually lost after winning and vice versa this season. This dumb crammed schedule has forced many teams to take some games off. Here are some examples tonight:
– Bucks +5 (0.5 Units)
– Suns -9.5 (1 Unit)
– Jazz -2 (0.5 Units)
NBA Pick: Hornets -1 (2 Units)
Miami Heat at Philadelphia 76ers.
Line: Heat by 2.
7:00 PM ET (Game 801-802)
Miami is easy money tonight because I like the 76ers for the following reasons:
1. This is a huge game for the Sixers, who can prove that they are for real. And they are – they have the top defense in the NBA, and they’re very deep.
2. Miami is coming off a loss, so one might think that this is an obvious rebound opportunity for them. It’s not, however, because the Heat is actually 2-3 against the spread following a defeat this year.
3. The Heat is the most heavily bet team of the night, yet the spread has dropped from -2.5 to -2. All of the sharps are on the Sixers.
NBA Pick: Sixers +2 (2 Units) — Incorrect; -$220
Milwaukee Bucks at Detroit Pistons.
Line: Bucks by 4.5.
7:30 PM ET (Game 807-808)
Another great opportunity for you to bet against me. I love the Bucks tonight because:
1. The Pistons are in the dreaded back-to-back situation following a long road trip that has worked so well this year.
2. Milwaukee is on fire, having won six of its previous eight games, with its only losses coming against the Bulls (by 7) and Hawks (by 5). In this stretch, the Bucks have beaten the Lakers and Heat twice.
3. This contest is one of the least-bet games of the night, but it looks like the sharps are all over the visitor. With action on the Bucks, the line has risen from -3.5 to -4.5.
NBA Pick: Bucks -4.5 (3 Units) — Incorrect; -$330
Memphis Grizzlies at Atlanta Hawks.
Line: Hawks by 4.
7:30 PM ET (Game 501-502)
The Hawks seem like the right side to me, so Memphis is likely to cover. Here’s what I’m thinking:
1. The Grizzlies had back-to-back games following a four-game road trip, with the second of those consecutive contests going into overtime. Now, just one day later, they have to deal with another back-to-back situation. How the hell are they going to have the energy to play at Atlanta when they have a matchup at Oklahoma City coming up tomorrow night?
2. As mentioned Wednesday, the Hawks have taken care of business against crappy and mediocre competition since losing Al Horford. The rest of the players know that they have to give 100 percent with their big man out of the lineup.
NBA Pick: Hawks -4 (2 Units) — Incorrect; -$220
Toronto Raptors at Boston Celtics.
Line: Celtics by 9.
7:30 PM ET (Game 705-706)
Ugh. Bad beat in the Nuggets-Grizzlies game last night, but I’m used to it after the first half of this past NFL season. Expect another bad beat tonight (or maybe just a good beat). I’m taking the Celtics because:
1. The Raptors have nothing left in the tank. I mentioned this yesterday, pointing out that they were playing back-to-back contests after a five-game road trip.
2. The Celtics have won five of their previous six games, so they have some momentum going here. Not included in this spurt was a 96-73 thrashing of Toronto on Jan. 18. Did you know that Boston is 7-1 against the spread versus the Raptors in the past three years?
NBA Pick: Celtics -9 (2 Units) — Correct; +$200
Atlanta Hawks at Toronto Raptors.
Line: Hawks by 5.5.
7:00 PM ET (Game 505-506)
Wow, I can’t believe J.J. Redick covered the spread with that last-second three-pointer against Philadelphia last night. I didn’t bet the Sixers or anything, but they were up 19 with five minutes left, and were still in position to cover before Redick hit that shot. Ridiculous.
Anyway, it’s time to bet heavily on the Raptors because I like Atlanta today. Here’s why:
1. One of the reasons I liked the Spurs last night was because Memphis was playing back-to-back contests after a four-game road trip. Well, Toronto is in the same situation, coming off five consecutive away tilts.
2. The Hawks have been a reliable team to bet on against bad teams. They can’t beat superior teams without Al Horford, but they’ve beaten up on lousy opponents. They should take care of business tonight.
NBA Pick: Hawks -5.5 (2 Units) — Correct; +$200
Denver Nuggets at Memphis Grizzlies.
Line: Nuggets by 1.
8:00 PM ET (Game 509-510)
Grab your wife and kids, fly out to Vegas, and bet on the Grizzlies because I’m going against them again. Here’s why:
1. I mentioned this yesterday. The Grizzlies are out of gas. This is their second back-to-back game after four consecutive away contests. They’ve shot 38 percent or worse from the field in three of their past four tilts because they just don’t have their legs anymore.
2. Like the Hawks, the Nuggets take care of business. This team has tried hard every night ever since getting rid of overrated ball-hog Carmelo Anthony. No one should be surprised that the Knicks stink.
NBA Pick: Nuggets -1 (2 Units) — Incorrect; -$220
San Antonio Spurs at Memphis Grizzlies.
Line: Grizzlies by 5.5.
8:00 PM ET (Game 709-710)
Load up all your funds on Memphis because I like San Antonio today. Here’s why:
1. The Grizzlies are in a really tough schedule spot. They have back-to-back games on the slate after four consecutive away contests.
2. Do you know how many times the Spurs have been road underdogs of 3.5-plus following two or more consecutive losses since 2000? Seven. They’re 5-2 straight up, 6-1 against the spread in this situation.
NBA Pick: Spurs +5.5 (2 Units) — Correct; +$200
Atlanta Hawks at New Orleans Hornets.
Line: Hawks by 2.5.
7:00 PM ET (Game 813-814)
Bet your mortgage on Atlanta because I absolutely love New Orleans today. Here’s why:
1. The Al Horford-less Hawks are a bit of a farce. They’re 3-2 in their previous five contests, with their three victories coming against crappy Cleveland, Milwaukee and Detroit. Their two losses? By 14 at Philadelphia and 22 at San Antonio.
2. The Hornets have just four victories, but they’re much better than their record indicates. Their schedule has been ridiculous thus far. Since Jan. 2, all but one of their opponents has a winning record: Utah, Philadelphia, Denver, Dallas, Denver, Oklahoma City, (Minnesota), Memphis, Portland, Memphis, Houston, Dallas, San Antonio, Oklahoma City and Orlando. How nuts is that? Despite this, New Orleans has kept most of its games close, covering its previous five, including a 93-67 blowout over the Magic.
3. The sharps are all over the Hornets. This spread opened up at -3.5. Despite tons of action on the Hawks, the line has dropped to -2.5 (-2 in some places).
NBA Pick: Hornets +2.5 (3 Units) — Incorrect; -$330
Oklahoma City Thunder at Golden State Warriors.
Line: Thunder by 4.
10:30 PM ET (Game 825-826)
Make sure you bet your life savings on the Warriors because I like the Thunder. Oklahoma City has no reason to be flat here. Coming off a pair of blowouts, it should have no problem dispatching this dreadful Golden State team. Reverse betting action scares me a bit though.
NBA Pick: Thunder -4 (1 Unit) — Correct; +$100
Memphis Grizzlies at Los Angeles Clippers.
Line: Clippers by 3.5.
10:30 PM ET (Game 503-504)
I needed a couple of days off from the NBA after that awful bad beat in the Warriors-Grizzlies game. How do you blow a 20-point lead in the fourth quarter? Ugh. Whatever. I’m back to lose more money.
The Clippers are coming off an emotional loss against the Lakers last night, so I can’t see them getting up for the Grizzlies.
NBA Pick: Grizzlies +3.5 (2 Units) — Incorrect; -$220
Orlando Magic at Boston Celtics.
Line: Magic by 6.5.
7:30 PM ET (Game 703-704)
I’m going to lay two units with the Magic depending on whether Rajon Rondo or Ray Allen miss this game. Orlando is on fire right now, and Boston is too old and banged up to compete. Check back an hour prior to tip-off.
I’m taking the Magic for two units. Both Allen and Rondo are out.
NBA Pick: Magic -6.5 (2 Units) — Incorrect; -$220
Memphis Grizzlies at Golden State Warriors.
Line: Warriors by 2.
10:30 PM ET (Game 719-720)
I like the Warriors a lot here for three reasons. First, the Grizzlies opened at -1.5, and despite tons of action on them, Golden State is now favored by two. Second, Memphis just won by 30-plus and is an underdog. That’s typically a play-against situation. The Grizzlies thrashed the Kings on Saturday, but only because Marcus Thornton suffered an injury early on in that contest. And finally, Memphis has to travel to Portland tomorrow night, so it could look past the Warriors, who are much better at home (wins over Bulls, Knicks, Heat) especially when Stephen Curry plays.
NBA Pick: Warriors -2 (3 Units) — Incorrect; -$330
Toronto Raptors at Los Angeles Clippers.
Line: Clippers by 8.5.
3:30 PM ET (Game 803-804)
The sharps are all over the Raptors, and I agree with them. The Clippers haven’t been impressive at all since losing Chris Paul to a hamstring, while Toronto has played in mostly close games over the past couple of weeks.
NBA Pick: Raptors +8.5 (2 Units) — Incorrect; -$220
Oklahoma City Thunder at New Jersey Nets.
Line: Thunder by 8.
8:00 PM ET (Game 515-516)
The shady line movement is the only thing keeping me from making a big play on the Thunder. I still like them though, given that they’ve had three days to think about that embarrassing loss to the Bullets. They’re going to come out angry and thrash the Nets.
NBA Pick: Thunder -8 (1 Unit) — Correct; +$100
Phoenix Suns at Boston Celtics.
Line: Celtics by 7.
7:30 PM ET (Game 813-814)
The sharps are betting up the Celtics, and I like Boston as well. Everyone is talking about dismantling this team, so I expect the proud veterans to respond well. They just beat up on the Raptors, and I expect them to do the same thing to Phoenix.
NBA Pick: Celtics -7 (1 Unit) — Incorrect; -$110
Dallas Mavericks at Utah Jazz.
Line: Jazz by 2.5.
10:30 PM ET (Game 505-506)
This is a tough schedule spot for the Mavericks, who have battled and lost to the Lakers and Clippers in two of the past three nights. Playing in Utah will be difficult, as this is a showcase game for the rested Jazz.
NBA Pick: Jazz -2.5 (2 Units) — Incorrect; -$220
San Antonio Spurs at Orlando Magic.
Line: Magic by 5.5.
7:00 PM ET (Game 705-706)
There are two teams in brutal schedule spots today that I’ve been tracking. Orlando is one. The Magic is playing in its third game in three nights, which happens to be a back-to-back home contest following a four-game road trip. Orlando will be worn out, while San Antonio will be trying to redeem itself after last night’s blowout loss at Miami.
NBA Pick: Spurs +5.5 (2 Units) — Correct; +$200
Indiana Pacers at Sacramento Kings.
Line: Pacers by 5.5.
10:00 PM ET (Game 719-720)
This is Sacramento’s only home game in a span of nine, and they only have one day of rest before it has to go to San Antonio and Memphis. There are way too many distractions at home for players, so you have to like the Pacers, who are coming off three days’ rest.
NBA Pick: Pacers -5.5 (3 Units) — Incorrect; -$330
Golden State Warriors at Cleveland Cavaliers.
Line: Cavaliers by 2.5.
7:00 PM ET (Game 503-504)
I think the Cavaliers are pretty underrated. They beat bad teams (6-1 ATS vs. teams with losing records) and they’re competitive with the elite squads. They have off until the 20th after this contest, so they can bring 100 percent versus the Warriors, who are usually unimpressive on the road.
NBA Pick: Cavaliers -2.5 (1 Unit) — Incorrect; -$110
Milwaukee Bucks at Philadelphia 76ers.
Line: 76ers by 9.
2:00 PM ET (Game 705-706)
I’m not in love with anything today, so I’ll take the Sixers for a unit. Thanks to Doug Collins’ great coaching, they’ve been a covering machine against bad teams. The Bucks, meanwhile, are coming off a tough loss at Dallas.
NBA Pick: 76ers -9 (1 Unit) — Correct; +$100
Utah Jazz at Denver Nuggets.
Line: Nuggets by 10.5.
8:00 PM ET (Game 803-804)
Three reasons why I like the Nuggets today: First, the Jazz just played last night. They won’t have as much energy as its opponent, which is a dangerous thing in Denver’s thin-air environment. Second, Utah has played in just one road game since New Year’s Eve. It has compiled wins at home versus mostly crap teams, so its record is inflated. And third, the Nuggets should have momentum off their victory against the Heat. Denver beat the Lakers on Jan. 1, and parlayed that into a win and cover against the Bucks the day after.
NBA Pick: Nuggets -10.5 (2 Units) — Incorrect; -$220
Portland Blazers at Houston Rockets.
Line: Blazers by 1.5.
8:00 PM ET (Game 509-510)
The Blazers just had an emotional loss against the Spurs last night, so I don’t think they’ll be up for playing inferior Houston. There’s also reverse line movement here; despite lots of action on Portland, the spread has dropped from -2 to -1.5.
NBA Pick: Rockets +1.5 (2 Units) — Correct; +$200
Sacramento Kings at Houston Rockets.
Line: Rockets by 8.
8:00 PM ET (Game 809-810)
Who are the Rockets to be laying eight against anyone? They’re not very good, and they happen to be coming off an emotional loss at San Antonio on Wednesday night. The Kings, meanwhile, have been playing better basketball lately.
NBA Pick: Kings +8 (2 Units) — Incorrect; -$220
New York Knicks at Memphis Grizzlies.
Line: Grizzlies by 4.5.
8:05 PM ET (Game 505-506)
I saw a headline today on a popular betting Web site that said, “Red-Hot Knicks Travel to Memphis.” When I read that, I immediately wanted to place a bet on the Grizzlies. The Knicks are terribly overrated, as usual. They’ve won four games in a row, but two of those victories were close battles against inept Washington and Charlotte. They beat the Sixers, playing their third game in three nights without their starting center (wish I would have known Spencer Hawes would be out), by six last night. Their only convincing win came against awful Detroit.
NBA Pick: Grizzlies -4.5 (2 Units) — Correct; +$200
Cleveland Cavaliers at Phoenix Suns.
Line: Suns by 7.
9:05 PM ET (Game 507-508)
The Suns are coming off an emotional loss to the Lakers, so I can’t see them getting up for the Cavaliers, who aren’t too bad this year. Also, there’s some reverse line movement here. There’s a ton of money on Phoenix, yet this spread dropped from -7.5 to -7.
NBA Pick: Cavaliers +7 (2 Units) — Correct; +$200
Philadelphia 76ers at New York Knicks.
Line: Knicks by 4.
7:35 PM ET (Game 705-706)
You have to be kidding me with the spread. The 76ers are a much better team than the loser Knicks, who can’t put teams like Charlotte and Washington away. This is Philly’s chance to prove that they are for real. And they defintiely are.
NBA Pick: 76ers +4 (3 Units) — Incorrect; -$330
Sacramento Kings and Philadelphia 76ers.
Line: 76ers by 9.
7:00 PM ET (Game 505-506)
The 76ers are on fire. They’re a young team gaining a ton of confidence right now. The Kings, meanwhile, suffered an emotional loss against the Magic on Sunday, so they may not be emotionally charged to battle Philly.
NBA Pick: 76ers -9 (1 Unit) — Correct; +$100
Atlanta Hawks at New Jersey Nets.
Line: Hawks by 5.5.
7:30 PM ET (Game 705-706)
The Nets put everything into their battle against the Heat on Saturday night, but came up just a bit short. I don’t see them mustering the same intensity against the Hawks, who have been on fire since losing to the same Miami squad that didn’t have Dwyane Wade or LeBron James.
NBA Pick: Hawks -5.5 (1 Unit) — Incorrect; -$110
New Orleans Hornets at Denver Nuggets.
Line: Nuggets by 13.
9:00 PM ET (Game 711-712)
This spread seems a bit too high. Save for their previous game against the Mavericks, the Hornets have lost by slim margins. The Nuggets, meanwhile, are coming off an emotional defeat versus San Antonio.
NBA Pick: Hornets +13 (2 Units) — Correct; +$200
Orlando Magic at Sacramento Kings.
Line: Magic by 7.
6:00 PM ET (Game 803-804)
The Magic had a tough game against the Bulls two days ago, but came up short. They won’t have much energy for the Kings, who are coming off two days’ rest.
NBA Pick: Kings +7 (2 Units) — Push; $0
New Orleans Hornets at Dallas Mavericks.
Line: Mavericks by 11.5.
9:05 PM ET (Game 515-516)
Maybe a week off was what I needed. The Mavericks are coming off an emotional loss to the Spurs, so it seems like the Hornets will be able to put forth a better effort in this matchup.
NBA Pick: Hornets +11.5 (2 Units) — Incorrect; -$220
Utah Jazz at Golden State Warriors.
Line: Warriors by 3.
10:35 PM ET (Game 519-520)
The Warriors just suffered back-to-back emotional defeats against the Spurs and Lakers. I don’t know how they’re going to get up for the Jazz.
NBA Pick: Jazz +3 (2 Units) — Correct; +$200
New York Knicks at Sacramento Kings.
Line: Knicks by 1.
8:05 PM ET (Game 507-508)
Ugh, maybe I’m not meant to be handicapping sports in lockout years. I don’t know anymore. The Knicks are coming off an emotional loss to the Lakers. They wouldn’t cover in this situation last season, but who knows now?
NBA Pick: Kings +1 (2 Units) — Incorrect; -$220
Houston Rockets at Memphis Grizzlies.
Line: Grizzlies by 5.5.
8:05 PM ET (Game 811-812)
The Grizzlies are coming off two emotional losses to the Spurs and Thunder as underdogs. Now they’re favorites over an inferior team. I can’t see them getting up for the Rockets.
NBA Pick: Rockets +5.5 (2 Units) — Incorrect; -$220
Toronto Raptors at Dallas Mavericks.
Line: Mavericks by 8.5.
8:35 PM ET (Game 815-816)
The Mavericks put everything into yesterday’s game at Oklahoma City. They lost at the buzzer, so I don’t see them having the energy to battle an inferior non-conference foe.
NBA Pick: Raptors +8.5 (2 Units) — Incorrect; -$220
Boston Celtics at New Orleans Hornets.
Line: Celtics by 2.5.
8:05 PM ET (Game 709-710)
Tough start. Hopefully I can rebound. I like the Celtics tonight. We saw what the Lakers did yesterday when faced with going 0-3. I expect Boston to rebound.
NBA Pick: Celtics -2.5 (1 Unit) — Incorrect; -$110
Minnesota Timberwolves at Milwaukee Bucks.
Line: Bucks by 5.
8:30 PM ET (Game 505-506)
OK, apparently the Warriors are a lot better than the Bulls. Whatever. The Timberwolves brought the kitchen sink last night against the Thunder, but lost by four. Getting up for non-conference foe Milwaukee will be tough.
NBA Pick: Bucks -5 (1 Unit) — Incorrect; -$110
Houston Rockets at Orlando Magic.
Line: Magic by 4.5.
7:00 PM ET (Game 705-706)
Two of my three picks today deal with teams that look off that suffered emotional losses yesterday. One such squad is the Magic. I don’t know what’s up with Dwight Howard, but he just seems lethargic. Orlando got up for Oklahoma City, so I don’t know how it’ll muster enough energy for Houston.
NBA Pick: Rockets +4.5 (2 Units) — Incorrect; -$220
Denver Nuggets and Dallas Mavericks.
Line: Mavericks by 4.5.
8:30 PM ET (Game 713-714)
The Mavericks look old and slow. They were completely “blowed” out against the Heat, trailing by 35 in the third quarter. I don’t see them getting up for a “lesser” non-divisional foe.
NBA Pick: Nuggets +4.5 (2 Units) — Correct; +$200
Chicago Bulls at Golden State Warriors.
Line: Bulls by 6.5.
10:30 PM ET (Game 723-724)
Here’s a cool trend for you: Teams that have beaten the Lakers are 28-11 against the spread over the past three years as favorites in their next game; a perfect 8-0 ATS if playing on no rest. The Warriors are still a team in transition trying to learn Mark Jackson’s style. The Bulls shouldn’t have any issues beating them by double digits.
NBA Pick: Bulls -6.5 (2 Units) — Incorrect; -$220
Dallas Mavericks at Miami Heat.
Line: Heat by 4.5.
2:30 PM ET (Game 503-504)
I’m taking two home underdogs playing for respect on opening day. Everyone is betting on the Heat because of the revenge angle, but I feel like the Mavericks have more motivation because no one is taking them seriously.
NBA Pick: Mavericks +4.5 (1 Unit) — Incorrect; -$110
Chicago Bulls at Los Angeles Lakers.
Line: Bulls by 4.5.
5:00 PM ET (Game 505-506)
Everyone is saying that the Clippers are the best team in Los Angeles this year. Do you know how pissed off Kobe Bryant is that everyone’s counting him and his team out? You never bet against Kobe when he’s trying to prove something.
NBA Pick: Lakers +4.5 (1 Unit) — Correct; +$100
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