NFL Betting Trends: Beating the Champion



An e-mailer pointed out to me that I had the wrong side in the Chicago-Seattle (Week 2, 2009) game because I was backing a team that just beat a defending Super Bowl champion as an underdog (not coming off a bye) and was playing on the road. Historically, he said, this was a losing proposition.

So, being very curious and having a lot of time on Friday afternoon, I compiled the data of this trend in the past decade. I came up with some pretty interesting numbers:


Beating a Super Bowl Champion as a Favorite:

Team
Coach
ATS Record since 2000
Home Favorite
Home Underdog
Road Favorite
Road Underdog
ATL/strong>
Mike Smith
1-0
1-0
0-0
0-0
0-0
BAL
Brian Billick
0-1
0-0
0-0
0-0
0-1
BAL
John Harbaugh
0-1
0-0
0-0
0-0
0-1
CHI
Marc Trestman
0-1
0-0
0-0
0-0
0-1
DAL
Wade Phillips
0-1
0-1
0-0
0-0
0-0
DEN
John Fox
1-0
0-0
0-0
1-0
0-0
DEN
Mike Shanahan
1-0
0-0
0-0
0-0
1-0
IND
Tony Dungy
0-1
0-1
0-0
0-0
0-0
KC
Andy Reid
0-1
0-0
0-0
0-1
0-0
KC
Dick Vermeil
1-0
0-0
1-0
0-0
0-0
MIA
Dave Wannstedt
1-0
0-0
0-0
0-0
1-0
PHI
Andy Reid
1-0
1-0
0-0
0-0
0-0
PIT
Mike Tomlin
0-0
0-0
0-0
0-1
0-0
SF
Mike Nolan
1-0
0-0
0-0
1-0
0-0
TEN
Jeff Fisher
1-0
0-0
0-0
1-0
0-0
Total Record
8-7
1-2
1-0
3-2
3-3







Beating a Super Bowl Champion as an Underdog:

Team
Coach
ATS Record since 2000
Home Favorite
Home Underdog
Road Favorite
Road Underdog
ATL
Dan Quinn
1-0
0-0
0-0
0-0
1-0
ATL
Mike Smith
0-1
0-1
0-0
0-0
0-0
ATL
Jim Mora Jr.
2-0
1-0
0-0
0-0
1-0
BAL
Brian Billick
0-1
0-0
0-0
0-0
0-1
BAL
Brian Billick
1-0
1-0
0-0
0-0
0-0
CAR
Ron Rivera
1-0
0-0
0-0
0-0
1-0
CAR
John Fox
0-2
0-1
0-0
0-1
0-0
CAR
George Seifert
1-1
0-1
0-0
0-0
1-0
CHI
Lovie Smith
1-0
0-0
0-0
1-0
0-0
CIN
Marvin Lewis
1-3
0-1
0-0
1-2
0-0
CIN
Dick LeBeau
0-1
0-0
0-0
0-0
0-1
CLE
Eric Mangini
1-0
0-0
0-0
0-0
1-0
CLE
Romeo Crennel
1-0
0-0
0-0
0-0
1-0
CLE
Butch Davis
1-1
1-0
0-0
0-0
0-1
DAL
Jason Garrett
0-1
0-0
0-0
0-1
0-0
DEN
Gary Kubiak
1-0
0-0
0-0
1-0
0-0
DEN
Mike Shanahan
0-2
0-1
0-0
0-1
0-0
GB
Mike Sherman
2-1
2-0
0-0
0-1
0-0
IND
Tony Dungy
0-1
0-1
0-0
0-0
0-0
JAX
Jack Del Rio
1-2
1-0
0-0
0-0
0-2
KC
Andy Reid
1-0
0-0
0-0
0-0
1-0
KC
Romeo Crennel
0-1
0-1
0-0
0-0
0-0
KC
Todd Haley
0-1
0-0
0-0
0-0
0-1
KC
Gunther Cunningham
1-0
0-0
0-0
1-0
0-0
MIA
Nick Saban
0-1
0-1
0-0
0-0
0-0
NE
Bill Belichick
2-0
2-0
0-0
0-0
0-0
NO
Jim Haslett
0-2
0-2
0-0
0-0
0-0
NYJ
Todd Bowles
0-1
0-0
0-0
0-1
0-0
NYJ
Herm Edwards
1-0
0-0
1-0
0-0
0-0
OAK
Tom Cable
0-1
0-0
0-1
0-0
0-0
OAK
Art Shell
0-1
0-0
0-0
0-0
0-1
OAK
Bill Callahan
1-0
0-0
0-0
1-0
0-0
PHI
Chip Kelly
1-0
1-0
0-0
0-0
0-0
PIT
Mike Tomlin
0-1
0-1
0-0
0-0
0-0
PIT
Bill Cowher
2-0
1-0
1-0
0-0
0-0
SD
Mike McCoy
2-0
0-0
0-0
0-0
2-0
SD
Marty Schottenheimer
0-2
0-1
0-0
0-0
0-1
SEA
Pete Carroll
0-0
0-0
0-0
0-0
0-1
SF
Dennis Erickson
0-1
0-0
0-0
0-1
0-0
SF
Dennis Erickson
0-1
0-0
0-0
0-0
0-1
TB
Dirk Koetter
0-1
0-1
0-0
0-0
0-0
TEN
Mike Vrabel
0-1
0-0
0-0
0-1
0-0
TEN
Mike Mularkey
1-0
0-0
0-0
0-0
1-0
WAS
Mike Shanahan
1-0
1-0
0-0
0-0
0-0
WAS
Norv Turner
0-1
0-1
0-0
0-0
0-0
Total Record
28-33
11-13
2-1
5-9
10-10



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