I'm going to list a few wide receivers I don't like at their current ADPs. I believe any player has value in the right situation, but if these guys are being picked near their average draft position, I am steering clear.
Steve Smith, Ravens
Steve Smith is one of my all-time favorite players to watch, but the times they are a changin'. Smith suffered a "double rupture" of his Achilles last season, the first one doctor Robert Anderson has ever seen and Anderson has seen a lot of sports injuries. Anderson said it looked like "raw, shredded chicken." Gross. Smith was on Oxytocin for 12 straight days after the surgery and at 37 years old, he's admittedly had second thoughts about being able to rehab this particularly heinous injury. But he has and his plan is to play. We just don't know when that will happen or even if it will.
Smith was obviously still a great player last season before his injury, but this just isn't any other injury and people are drafting him as if they know he will be back at full strength for the season. I'll be passing on him and grabbing Kamar Aiken and sometimes Mike Wallace when he's cheap enough.
Markus Wheaton, Steelers
The day Martavis Bryant was suspended for the season, Wheaton's stock went way up. Of course it did, because Wheaton was just behind Antonio Brown and Bryant on the depth chart, but most people didn't take Sammie Coates into the equation. Coates is the more gifted athlete and has a higher upside than Wheaton, but Wheaton did show improvement last season and he's not going to be a pushover. But now a week into training camp, it does appear that Coates is in the lead for that job. Coates' ADP is WR79 compared to Wheaton's WR43 right now, and even though those will start coming together in the coming weeks, there's a good chance Wheaton will continue to average ahead of Coates, which means you should get a nice steal in many of your leagues.
Josh Doctson, Redskins
Right now, the rookie is getting drafted based on his ability more than his position in the offense. Washington's top targets are Jordan Reed, DeSean Jackson, Pierre Garcon, Jamison Crowder and Chris Thompson. Could Doctson beat those guys out and rise up the target ranks? Of course, but I'm not going to draft with that as my player's only path to fantasy value.
Dorial Green-Beckham, Titans
Dorial Green-Beckham has a ton of ability, but can't get his head screwed on straight it seems. As of today, he's looking like Justin Hunter 2.0. The Titans need him to step up, because they don't have a true No. 1, but I don't think we can even dream of that happening soon. His coach continues to push him down the depth chart and call him out, which at first seemed like a motivational play, but now it just looks like that's where he is in his development. The Titans are going to try to run the ball a lot this year and it looks like Delanie Walker may once again be the target leader.
Allen Hurns, Jaguars
Hurns finished well last season due to a crazy touchdown every 6.4 receptions as he caught 10 scores in 64 receptions on 104 targets. The odds of him replicating that are long, so he would need to see more targets to give us some safety in drafting him, but that also seems like a long shot. Allen Robinson and Julius Thomas will be the one and two targets, and the Jaguars also acquired Chris Ivory to pair with T.J. Yeldon in hopes of boosting their pitiful rushing attack, which yielded them a total of five rushing touchdowns all season, while Blake Bortles threw 35. The gap between those two numbers should narrow this season and Hurns will be lucky to hit 7-8 touchdowns.
Exactly and now they also have trade assets. Grasu could get a pick from a center needy team, Kush can back up Whitehair. Glennon can head to AZ for a pick when Palmer gets hurt or continues his poor play. Someone may want to gamble on Kyle Fuller and give up a late pick if he doesnt impress the Bears staff. Amos or HJQ could get a 6 or 7 from a safety needy team.