2015 NFL Mock Draft

Last update: Wednesday, March 18, 2015.
Next update: Next week. Follow me @walterfootball for updates.

The order of this 2015 NFL Mock Draft is based on the NFL Power Rankings.

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2015 NFL Mock Draft

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Tampa Bay Buccaneers: Jameis Winston, QB, Florida State
The Buccaneers will definitely be taking a quarterback; that much is obvious. We reported several months ago that Tampa was more than willing to move up for a signal-caller, but that’s not necessary now that the Buccaneers own the top selection. Thus, all speculation of them moving down is pretty pointless.

It’s not a matter of what position Tampa addresses, but rather which quarterback it takes. Jameis Winston was the favorite heading into the NFL Combine. Charlie Campbell reported that the Buccaneers currently prefer Jameis Winston over Marcus Mariota, and then he wrote that the Buccaneers’ ownership is comfortable with Winston, while the front office has him rated higher than Cam Newton and Matthew Stafford coming out of school.

Winston only helped himself in Indianapolis. In addition to throwing some terrific passes in the field drills, he also impressed in the interviews, prompting one personnel man to compare his football IQ to Peyton Manning’s. Winston is a near-lock to go No. 1 at this point.
Tennessee Titans: Marcus Mariota, QB, Oregon
Both Chris Mortensen and Jim Wyatt have reported that Tennessee is set to go “all in” with Zach Mettenberger next season. While that’s definitely accurate right now, things may change once the Titans’ front office gets to know Marcus Mariota. Plus, that report may have come from the coaching staff, which is more than likely to back its current player.

I feel more confident about mocking Mariota to the Titans than Jameis Winston, given ownership’s emphasis on character. Mariota isn’t an ideal fit for Ken Whisenhunt’s offense, but there have been many examples of coaches taking talent over system fits in the past. Take Andy Reid drafting Donovan McNabb, for example. The need for a franchise signal-caller trumps everything.

Mariota helped himself at the NFL Combine, impressing teams in the interviews and looking great in the field drills. Sixty-eight percent of mock drafts have the Titans picking Leonard Williams, per our mock draft consensus report, but I’m not buying Williams going to Tennessee. I have to believe that Mariota, in some shape or form, will be the second-overall pick in the 2015 NFL Draft.
Jacksonville Jaguars: Dante Fowler, DE/OLB, Florida
The Jaguars needed offensive line help much more than another player on the defensive front heading into free agency, but they signed Jermey Parnell to a big contract, so they can definitely go with the top player on their board. While many believe that to be Leonard Williams, I’m hearing that Williams isn’t as highly regarded among teams as he is in the media, as there is some concern with his consistency. Dante Fowler might be higher on Jacksonville’s board. Besides, Fowler fills a greater need in the wake of the Jared Odrick signing. The Jaguars have to find a better edge rusher.
Oakland Raiders: Leonard Williams, DE/DT, USC
The Raiders would love to land Leonard Williams. He would fill a huge need, and as Charlie Campbell reported a couple of months ago, Williams told Oakland that he would love to play for them. I didn’t think there was a chance Williams would fall to No. 4, but as I mentioned in the Jaguars’ write-up, teams aren’t as high on Williams as the media is. This is not a rare phenomenon, as we saw this last year with Teddy Bridgewater. Many believe that Bridgewater’s stock dropped because of a poor Pro Day, but in reality – and we reported this ahead of time – teams never liked him to begin with. Perhaps some will be surprised if Williams falls to No. 4, but the Raiders will happily take him.
Washington Redskins: Vic Beasley, DE/OLB, Clemson
I had the Redskins picking Danny Shelton in my previous update, but with Terrance Knighton signed on, Washington can select the top player available who makes sense for them. That would be the rising Vic Beasley, who was terrific at the NFL Combine.

Beasley doesn’t really fill a glaring need, as the Redskins have Ryan Kerrigan and Trent Murphy as edge rushers. However, Brian Orakpo left for Tennessee, so depth is needed. Beasley would join the two to form a very strong rotation of pass-rushers to harass Tony Romo and the other opposing quarterbacks in the NFC East.

Pick change; previously Danny Shelton, NT
New York Jets: Shane Ray, DE/OLB, Missouri
As with the Washington selection, this one is going to change because of what the Jets did in free agency. They signed Darrelle Revis and Antonio Cromartie – check out my NFL Free Agent Signing Grades for analysis on that – so Trae Waynes obviously is no longer an option. Like the Redskins, New York can take the best player available at this spot.

I suspect there will be a run on pass-rushers in the top 10. Not only is it the most-talented group in this draft class; it’s also a premium position. Shane Ray would fit a huge need for the Jets, who need all the defensive weapons they can get to rattle Tom Brady.

Pick change; previously Trae Waynes, CB
Chicago Bears: Kevin White, WR, West Virginia
I had the Bears addressing the outside linebacker position in a previous update, but that is no longer a prime need in the wake of the Pernell McPhee signing. Chicago could stand to add another pass-rusher, but the front office can look to other positions now with the No. 7 overall pick.

One such position is receiver. Brandon Marshall was traded to the Jets, so Jay Cutler will need someone to throw to besides Alshon Jeffery. Kevin White, who blew up the Combine, is the same type of big target that Marshall was.
Atlanta Falcons: Alvin Dupree, DE/OLB, Kentucky
The run on edge rushers continues, which is predictable, but some might be surprised by Alvin Dupree over Randy Gregory. After all, Gregory was a popular top-three pick in 2015 NFL Mock Drafts prior to the NFL Combine, so how could he slip past the Falcons, who are desperate for a pass-rusher?

Well, Gregory had a poor showing at the NFL Combine, for one. Dupree, meanwhile, was exceptional. But this is more about the fit. Dupree is exactly what Atlanta is looking for in terms of an explosive defensive player. He’s just a better match for the scheme.

Pick change; previously Vic Beasley, DE/OLB
New York Giants: Randy Gregory, DE/OLB, Nebraska
The Giants typically take the top player on their board, and I have to imagine Randy Gregory would fit that description in this scenario. Gregory was considered an option for the Titans at No. 2 overall prior to the NFL Combine, but he weighed in at 235 pounds, prompting many to question whether he could play in a 4-3 defense.

I don’t think general manager Jerry Reese will care about what happened to Gregory in Indianapolis. Gregory reportedly was sick prior to the NFL Combine, which could account for his weight loss. He has the length and athleticism that Reese likes out of his pass-rushers – and we know Reese is looking for one because he tried to bring in Brandon Graham – so I can’t see the Giants passing on him if he’s available at No. 9 overall.
St. Louis Rams: Brandon Scherff, OT/G, Iowa
The Rams still have some holes on their offensive line. Jake Long’s health was a serious concern, prompting the front office to release him. There’s a void at the guard spot that Greg Robinson previously occupied. Meanwhile, right tackle Joseph Barksdale is a free agent. Here’s a solution for either dilemma.
Minnesota Vikings: Trae Waynes, CB, Michigan State
The Vikings could use an early selection on a cornerback so that they have a long-term starter across from Xavier Rhodes. Trae Waynes was slotted at No. 6 last week, so taking him with the 11th pick presents solid value. Plus, he’s a perfect fit for Mike Zimmer’s scheme.

Pick change; previously Amari Cooper, WR
Cleveland Browns: Danny Shelton, NT, Washington
Cleveland was atrocious against the run to close out the season. Part of the reason for that was incompetent play from the defensive line. It didn’t help that Phil Taylor, who struggled early, missed the second half of the year with a knee injury. He has literally been a huge disappointment. The same goes for Ahtyba Rubin.

I’ve had Danny Shelton as high as No. 5 before, so being able to grab him at the 12th selection is a steal. I just couldn’t find a home for him in the top 10. I considered Chicago, but Kevin White seems like the better prospect.

Pick change; previously Malcom Brown, DE/DT
New Orleans Saints: Amari Cooper, WR, Alabama
I never would’ve imagined Amari Cooper falling to No. 13 prior to the NFL Combine, but it can happen now. Kevin White surpassed him, as did a couple of edge rushers on the big board. I don’t think the Browns or Rams will address the receiver position in the first round, so here’s Cooper at No. 13.

The Saints almost have to pounce on him. It would be their second-consecutive first-round receiver selection, but Cooper is the best player available, and he also happens to fill a need. New Orleans lost a big-time weapon in Jimmy Graham in the Seattle trade, so the team needs to give Drew Brees another potent target. Besides, with Kenny Stills gone and Marques Colston regressing, the receiver position must be addressed.

Pick change; previously Shane Ray, DE/OLB
Miami Dolphins: DeVante Parker, WR, Louisville
It was a given that Mike Wallace would be jettisoned this offseason, and sure enough, he was dealt to Minnesota. Kenny Stills was acquired, but he’s not a No. 1 target. Neither is Jarvis Landry, who was impressive as a rookie. The Dolphins could stand to add a top-notch receiver.
San Francisco 49ers: Malcom Brown, DE/DT, Texas
The 49ers have endured a disastrous offseason, comprised of a massive downgrade at head coach, numerous retirements and free-agent departures. They could almost go in any direction, given the amount of needs they have.

One player who hasn’t confirmed his retirement just yet is Justin Smith, but it’s sounding like he might be gone as well. If so, San Francisco will have a major hole up front.

Pick change; previously Alvin Dupree, DE/OLB
Houston Texans: Todd Gurley, RB, Georgia
Todd Gurley to the Texans!? Don’t they have Arian Foster? Sure, but Foster is usually banged up, and Todd Gurley, despite his injury, would be too good for Houston to pass up at No. 16. The Texans don’t have a quarterback, and it doesn’t look like they’ll be able to get one this offseason – Brian Hoyer doesn’t really count – so they better make sure they can run the hell out of the ball. Foster is too injury-prone and unreliable, so having Gurley in the backfield to split the carries would solidify that aspect of Houston’s offense.

Gurley obviously couldn’t perform at the NFL Combine, but he did check out positively in the medical. He’s ahead of schedule, and many of the teams are reportedly pleased with his progress. He could end up being a steal here, as he would be the favorite to go sixth overall to the Jets if he were healthy.

Go to 2015 NFL Mock Draft: Picks 17-32

Sorry for cutting this 2015 NFL Mock Draft into two halves; I’ve received complaints about load times and putting the mock draft on two pages saves bandwidth.