Last update: Friday, April 21, 2017.
THIS IS NOT
A 2017 NFL MOCK DRAFT
. Click the link to see my real 2017 NFL Mock Draft. This is a 2017 NFL Not Draft - a compilation of popular mock picks that, in my opinion, will not happen.
For the record, I was wrong about zero "not" picks in my 2012 and 2013 Not Mocks (which means I was right about none of my projections not happening). My 2014 Not Mock was less successful, as I "hit" (a bad thing) two of the picks. I also hit a pick in 2015, and then I "hit" two picks in 2016. I didn't think Jalen Ramsey would be available for Jacksonville, but that was wrong. I was also off on Tampa not taking Vernon Hargreaves. I'll try to rebound in the 2017 edition.
Real 2017 NFL Mock Draft
Cleveland Browns: Anyone Other Than Myles Garrett
I think this pick is pretty close to being locked in. It reminds me of the 2014 NFL Draft, when everyone knew Houston would be picking Jadeveon Clowney, save for a couple of conspiracy theorists who thought Khalil Mack would be take first overall. Garrett is just the best player by a mile, and barring a trade that would absolutely blow their socks off, the Browns will be selecting the Texas A&M pass-rusher.
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San Francisco 49ers: Mitchell Trubisky, QB, North Carolina
I've seen some argue for Mitchell Trubisky with this pick, and while it's not out of the realm of possibility, I think it's unlikely. It seems like the 49ers' ultimate plan is to obtain Kirk Cousins in some fashion. It could happen next offseason, but the Cousins-Kyle Shanahan is so strong that the reunion is inevitable. With that in mind, why would San Francisco select a quarterback if its goal is to acquire Cousins at some point in the next 11 months? Why block that possibility? The 49ers are desperate to trade down, as Charlie Campbell pointed out in his NFL Draft Rumor Mill, so they probably won't even be making the choice at No. 2.
Chicago Bears: Jonathan Allen, DE/DT, Alabama
I mocked Jonathan Allen into this spot for quite a while. I moved off it when I read Aaron Leming's (BearReport.com) analysis of why Allen wouldn't make much sense at No. 3 overall. I then learned something that made me believe that there's almost a zero-percent chance Allen is not the pick.
Jacksonville Jaguars: Leonard Fournette, RB, LSU
I've slotted Leonard Fournette here for a while, but I'm beginning to think that he won't be available here. If the 49ers don't take him, some team could move up to No. 3 for him.
Tennessee Titans: Malik Hooker, S, Ohio State
Here's a spot where safety doesn't make much sense. The Titans love the safeties in this class, but they filled the position by signing John Cyprien. Cornerback is much more likely now.
New York Jets: Mitchell Trubisky, QB, North Carolina
Charlie Campbell reported that the Jets are pleased with Christian Hackenberg's progression, so they won't be selecting a quarterback in the early rounds this time. New York also sticks to a "best player available" strategy, and there's no way Mitchell Trubisky or any other signal-caller will be atop its board.
Los Angeles Chargers: Mitchell Trubisky, QB, North Carolina
There's been talk of the Chargers taking a quarterback early in the 2017 NFL Draft, but doing so with the seventh-overall pick sounds extremely stupid. The quarterbacks in this class aren't very good, so why would the Chargers burn a top draft pick on one when there are so many talented defensive backs and edge rushers? I think the Chargers could take a signal-caller in the second round, but not here.
Carolina Panthers: Dalvin Cook, RB, Florida State
I've seen some mocks project Leonard Fournette to the Panthers. Fournette won't drop to No. 8 overall. He's just way too good to fall this far. Dalvin Cook, meanwhile, won't be an option either because of his character concerns.
Cincinnati Bengals: Malik Hooker, S, Ohio State
I can't really find an obvious "not" pick for the Bengals, so I'm going to list another player I don't think will get to them. Malik Hooker has drawn tons of interest from most teams selecting ahead of Cincinnati, so I don't think he'll fall to No. 9 overall, barring some horrible medical information.
Buffalo Bills: Deshaun Watson, QB, Clemson
The reporter who declared that Matt Barkley would be taken seventh overall has said that Deshaun Watson is a strong option for the Bills at No. 10. The 10th-overall selection is way too high for Watson. I could see Mitchell Trubisky being selected here - also a mistake - but not Watson.
New Orleans Saints: Mike Williams, WR, Clemson
The Saints traded Brandin Cooks, but Mike Williams isn't much of an option for them at No. 11 overall. They believe they can plug in second-day prospects into their offense and make things work, so they'll be looking at defense in the first round.
Cleveland Browns: Deshaun Watson, QB, Clemson
This is a risky prediction to make because I could see this pick happening. However, I don't think it's very likely. Deshaun Watson doesn't fit well into Hue Jackson's system, while Mitchell Trubisky does. Perhaps Jackson will adjust his scheme to fit Watson's strengths, but I don't think that'll happen.
Arizona Cardinals: Pat Mahomes, QB, Texas Tech
The scuttlebutt is that the Cardinals will pick a quarterback in the first round, but I don't see it happening. Arizona is very tight-lipped, so given all the discussion about them looking into quarterbacks, I think they'll pass on a signal-caller at this juncture.
Philadelphia Eagles: Dalvin Cook, RB, Florida State
I've mocked Dalvin Cook to the Eagles quite a bit, but all of the prominent Eagles beat writers have been adamant that Philadelphia won't be selecting a running back. So, I'll just blindly follow. Perhaps it's a philosophical thing where the Eagles simply don't believe in selecting a running back in the first round.
Indianapolis Colts: Cam Robinson, OT, Alabama
It might seem logical to mock a tackle to the Colts, but they like Le'Raven Clark as their right tackle - at least for 2017 - so I don't think they'll be taking Cam Robinson or any other tackle.
Baltimore Ravens: John Ross, WR, Washington
The Ravens have made so much noise about taking a receiver with this pick that it doesn't seem very likely. I think they'll pull the trigger if Mike Williams somehow falls to them, but I don't think they'll be highly interested in John Ross, barring a worst-case scenario type of deal.
Go to 2017 NFL Not Draft: Picks 17-32
Sorry for cutting this into two halves; I've received complaints about load times and putting the mock draft on two pages saves bandwidth.
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