Week 7 NFL Picks

NFL Picks (Week 1, 2008): 11-5 (+$1,470)
NFL Picks (Week 2, 2008): 7-7-1 (-$100)
NFL Picks (Week 3, 2008): 10-6 (+$860)
NFL Picks (Week 4, 2008): 6-7 (-$350)
NFL Picks (Week 5, 2008): 8-6 (+$230)
NFL Picks (Week 6, 2008): 9-5 (+$2,260)
If you don’t quite understand the line, total or anything else, go to my Sports Betting FAQ.

Vegas betting action updated Oct. 20, 5:10 p.m. ET.

Go to Week 7 NFL Picks – Early Games

Detroit Lions (0-5) at Houston Texans (1-4)
Line: Texans by 9.5. Total: 46.5.
Walt’s Projected Line (Before Week 6): Texans -4.5.

Walt’s Projected Line (After Week 6): Texans -5.

Sunday, 4:05 ET – Buy Tickets

The Game. Edge: Texans.

Injuries: Lions: OUT: QB Jon Kitna (IR), CB Stanley Wilson (IR), S Gerald Alexander (IR). Texans: OUT: RB Chris Brown (IR), G Fred Weary (IR), CB Dunta Robinson, CB Jimmy Williams (IR), S C.C. Brown.

The sixth installment of the new Emmitt Smith feature will be up on FRIDAY! The year is 2013. Coming off a Week 1 victory, the Patriots get into trouble for Sypgate II. Roger Goodell orders the team to replace Bill Belichick with Emmitt. Week 2: Emmitt wins his first game against the Falcons, 11-4, despite major confusion and thanks in part to a Michael Vick arrest. Week 3: Something interesting happens to the Bengals, Emmitt screws up again and a key Patriot is lost for the year. Week 4: The Lions-Patriots contest gets moved to Detroit. Find out why, and discover who the new GM of the Lions is. Week 5: Herm Edwards screws up in the battle of the unbeatens! Week 6: Dennis Green blows a record lead and has to be taken to the mental hospital! Each week, I’ll follow the 2013 Patriots from a newspaper reporter’s perspective. Get ready for 2013: Emmitt on the Brink!

Speaking of 2013: Emmitt on the Brink, I feel like I would be doing everyone a disservice if I didn’t somehow incorporate Dan Orlovsky into it. Orlovsky is a disgrace; at first, I was shocked that the Texans were favored by nine, but then I thought about how horrible Orlovsky was last week. Jared Allen scared him into running out of the back of the end zone!

DETROIT OFFENSE: Get used to more Orlovsky, Lions fans, because with Jon Kitna out for the year, he’s your starting quarterback. And if that’s not bad enough, Roy Williams was just traded to the Cowboys, meaning Orlovsky has only one above-average weapon to work with, albeit Calvin Johnson is an absolute beast.

Houston’s defense blows, but can anyone confidently say that the Lions will score more than 14 points in this game? They can’t run block or pass protect, so look for Orlovsky to take another safety with Mario Williams bearing down on him. Kevin Smith and Rudi Johnson, meanwhile, won’t produce much.

HOUSTON OFFENSE: Though they’re 1-4, the Texans have one of the top scoring units in the NFL. In consecutive weeks, Houston has lit up Jacksonville (27 points), Indianapolis (27) and Miami (29). All three of those defenses are better than what the Lions have.

Detroit’s secondary is abysmal, as it’s ranked dead-last in the NFL, no thanks to a lacking pass rush. The Lions also happen to be 28th versus the run, so the Texans should be able to do whatever they want on Sunday. Matt Schaub, Andre Johnson, Kevin Walter, Owen Daniels and Steve Slaton should all be able to post massive numbers.

RECAP: If you think a huge line of -9 is fishy, you’re right. Vegas is begging the public to take the Lions.

I wouldn’t recommend betting on Detroit in the near future. The team just traded one of its best players (Roy Williams), which sends a message that the front office is packing it in. If the players know that management has no faith in them, how are they supposed to give 100 percent on Sundays?

The Psychology. Edge: Texans.

Are the Lions going to try hard, now that management has traded Roy Williams and essentially given up on the season?

The Vegas. Edge: Lions.

I thought the public would shy away from laying nine with the Texans. Apparently not. This spread has risen to 9.5 in some places, indicating that the books want more money on Detroit.

Percentage of money on Houston: 82% (164,000 bets)

The Trends. Edge: Lions.

Road Warrior: Coaches coming off a road loss are 113-77 ATS on the road since 1996.

Lions are 5-12 ATS on the road since 2006.

Lions are 1-8 ATS against losing teams the previous 9 instances.

Texans are 9-19 ATS after a win (3-3 in 2007).

Opening Line: Texans -9.

Opening Total: 47.

Weather: Sunny, 78 degrees. Light wind.

Week 7 NFL Pick: Texans 38, Lions 14
Texans -9.5 (1 Unit) — Incorrect; -$110
Over 46.5 (.5 Units) — Correct; +$50
Texans 28, Lions 21

Indianapolis Colts (3-2) at Green Bay Packers (3-3)
Line: Colts by 1. Total: 47.
Walt’s Projected Line (Before Week 6): Colts -1.5.
Walt’s Projected Line (After Week 6): Colts -3.
Sunday, 4:15 ET – Buy Tickets

The Game. Edge: Colts.

Injuries: Colts: OUT: RB Joseph Addai*, RB Mike Hart (IR), OT Tony Ugoh, G Ryan Lilja, DT Anthony McFarland (IR), OLB Tyjuan Hagler, S Bob Sanders*, KR T.J. Rushing (IR). Packers: OUT: G Junius Coston (IR), DT Justin Harrell, CB Al Harris.

More quotes to be featured in the upcoming Emmitt Anthology: Volume 2. Here’s a link to the original Emmitt Anthology.

1. “He’s better than the three quarterbacks you’re looking at. Kyle Horton in Chicago…” (Commentary: While Horton Hears a Who, Emmitt talks about a Horton.)

2. “Flozell Adams need to shore up that back side.” (Commentary: Isn’t there some porn comedy coming out soon? Is Emmitt trying out to be one of the writers?)

3. “When it come down to being critical to one another…” (Commentary: Forget the porn movie! Emmitt is now auditioning to take Dr. Phil’s job.)

INDIANAPOLIS OFFENSE: Poor Packers. Aaron Rodgers is hurt, but they finally get a win on the road… but instead of playing a struggling Colts team this Sunday, they have to take on a team that looked amazingly sharp against one of the top defenses in the league last week. And they have to do it without one of their starting corners, Al Harris.

The Packers are currently ninth versus the pass, but that’s with Harris in the lineup. They couldn’t stop Matt Ryan two Sundays ago, so how in the world are they going to contain Peyton Manning, Marvin Harrison, Reggie Wayne and Dallas Clark, now that the Colts finally look in sync?

Green Bay will also have problems stopping the run. The Packers have been awful against it all season, ranking 29th in the league in that department. They were able to shut down Julius Jones last week, but that’s because they were able to key in on him with Charlie Frye under center. They won’t have that luxury going against Dominic Rhodes, who will be starting for the injured Joseph Addai.

GREEN BAY OFFENSE: I’ve been saying it for weeks now, but this is the week Ryan Grant gets going. It’s now or never. Indianapolis is 25th versus the run, so Grant should finally have a big game – meaning he’ll go over 100 yards and score a touchdown. His fantasy owners can only hope so.

If Grant can get going, Aaron Rodgers will have a much easier time dissecting Indianapolis’ secondary, ranked 15th against the pass. Remember, Sage Rosenchoker scored 27 points against the Colts. If Grant cannot be established, things could get dicey for Rodgers, who’s playing through a tremendous amount of pain right now. You can only admire what he’s doing.

RECAP: If the Colts are truly back on track – and I think they are – they shouldn’t have a problem winning this game.

One concern I have is the ridiculous amount of action on Indianapolis. That’s only a small worry though because the line movement is matching public betting. This spread has moved 2.5 points toward the Colts.

The Psychology. Edge: None.
No psychological edge found.

The Vegas. Edge: Packers.
Casual bettors are predictably all over the Colts, but this line has moved 2.5 points in Indianapolis’ direction.

Percentage of money on Indianapolis: 92% (195,000 bets)

The Trends. Edge: Colts.

Colts are 15-8 ATS vs. the NFC under Tony Dungy.

Colts are 29-19 ATS on the road under Tony Dungy.

Peyton Manning is 23-15 ATS as a road favorite since 2001.

Opening Line: Packers -1.

Opening Total: 48.

Weather: Partly cloudy, 55 degrees. Mild wind, 14 mph.

Week 7 NFL Pick: Colts 24, Packers 20
Colts -1 (1 Unit) — Incorrect; -$110
Under 47 (1 Unit) — Incorrect; -$110
Packers 34, Colts 14

New York Jets (3-2) at Oakland Raiders (1-4)
Line: Jets by 3. Total: 41.
Walt’s Projected Line (Before Week 6): Jets -3.
Walt’s Projected Line (After Week 6): Jets -3.
Sunday, 4:15 ET – Buy Tickets

The Game. Edge: Jets.

Injuries: Jets: OUT: ILB Brad Kassell (IR). Raiders: OUT: WR Drew Carter (IR), G Paul McQuistan (IR).

Hey, did you know that JaMarcus Russell is the best quarterback the Raiders have ever had? Yep, it’s true! Better than Ken Stabler and Rich Gannon. Just ask Cris Carter! On Sunday NFL Countdown, Carter opined that Russell is the best signal caller to ever play for Oakland. There are three possible explanations for this comment:

1. Carter’s back on the booger candy.

2. Al Davis has possessed Carter. JaMarcus Russell’s a great player!!! Get over it!!!!

3. Carter’s chair on the set of Sunday NFL Countdown is known as the Stoopid Chair, capable of reducing anyone’s IQ to one. That would explain why Emmitt’s grammar was debacled last year.

Several members of the forum were actually debating whether or not this was a shady point spread. It certainly looks like one, but if you shift it over six points toward the Jets, this line would be Raiders at Jets -9. Considering the Saints were 7-point favorites over Oakland, I don’t find this line weird at all.

OAKLAND OFFENSE: Laying only a field goal with the Jets looks so tempting here. JaMarcus Russell is struggling, his receivers can’t catch a cold and Tom Cable looked completely overwhelmed in his first game as Oakland’s head coach.

Meanwhile, the Raiders’ only offensive strength, running the ball, will be nullified by New York’s outstanding rush defense, ranked second in the NFL. The Jets give up only 2.9 yards per carry, so without Darren McFadden and Justin Fargas doing much, Russell will be asked to move the chains on his own again. We all saw how that worked out against the Saints last week.

The Jets will be able to take advantage of Russell in long-yardage situations. They already have 18 sacks on the year, while Oakland’s offensive line has major problems with pass protection.

NEW YORK OFFENSE: After struggling mightily against the Chargers, Brett Favre has gotten into a groove the past two games. I know he played the Cardinals, who were missing Adrian Wilson, and the lowly Bengals, but still, it’s not like the Raiders are much better than those two squads.

Oakland’s secondary is ranked 27th versus the pass. They haven’t been able to stop anyone’s aerial attack all year, so why should I believe that they’ll be able to contain Favre, Jerricho Cotchery and Laveranues Coles?

Thomas Jones had a great game last week (by his standards), but don’t look for a repeat performance. Oakland gives up less than four yards per rush. The Jets will move chains primarily through the air.

RECAP: Prior to the Jets’ blowout loss to San Diego in Week 3, the team hadn’t traveled to the West Coast since 2004. So, this was the first time Eric Mangini had to take his squad cross-country. They clearly didn’t travel well, getting debacled by a winless Chargers club.

What if Mangini just sucks at flying to the Pacific Coast? What if he does all the wrong things and never has his team prepared for that situation?

Furthermore, I don’t think the Jets are good enough to be laying points on the road. They’re 3-2, but their victories have come against NFL fodder like Miami (close game), Arizona (Cardinals were cross-country without their top defender Adrian Wilson) and Cincinnati (with Ryan Fitzpatrick). The Jets don’t have an impressive win yet.

The Raiders may seem like NFL fodder to most people, but remember – this team led by double digits at Buffalo. They also had a sizable advantage over San Diego. If Oakland can almost beat the Bills and Chargers, I think it can handle the jet-lagged Jets.

The Psychology. Edge: None.
No psychological edge found.

The Vegas. Edge: Raiders.

The public is betting this game like they know the final score. This line isn’t moving off -3, but the books are raising the juice.

Percentage of money on New York: 91% (146,000 bets)

The Trends. Edge: Jets.

Jets are 7-4 ATS as a favorite under Eric Mangini.

Raiders are 7-16 ATS in October since 2001.

Raiders are 8-24 ATS at home the previous 32 instances.

Opening Line: Jets -3.

Opening Total: 43.

Weather: Sunny, 64 degrees. Mild wind, 13 mph.

Week 7 NFL Pick: Jets 24, Raiders 23
Raiders +3 (1 Unit) — Correct; +$100
Over 41 (.5 Units) — Incorrect; -$55
Raiders 16, Jets 13

Cleveland Browns (2-3) at Washington Redskins (4-2)
Line: Redskins by 7.5. Total: 42.
Walt’s Projected Line (Before Week 6): Redskins -13.

Walt’s Projected Line (After Week 6): Redskins -7.
Sunday, 4:15 ET – Buy Tickets

The Game. Edge: Redskins.

Injuries: Browns: OUT: WR Joe Jurevicius, G Lennie Friedman, DE Robaire Smith (IR), OLB Antwan Peek (IR). Redskins: OUT: DE Jason Taylor, DE Phillip Daniels (IR), S Reed Doughty (IR).

It’s time for the Bo-Bo Fantasy Update! If you don’t know what this is, check out the Worst Fantasy Football Draft Ever. Looks like those who were dreaming of an inexplicable Bo-Bo playoff appearance will be disappointed; I don’t have the exact details, but from what I heard, Bo-Bo’s fantasy squad was completely debacled. Oh well. Instead of worrying about the playoffs, he can concentrate on where to take his 50 hot dates right after selling the Sears Tower.

Like Bo-Bo, the Browns started 0-3 but quickly rebounded to win two games. The first victory was pretty unimpressive; they barely scraped by the Ryan Fitzpatrick-led Bengals. However, they somehow dominated the Giants on both sides of the ball en route to a 35-14 victory. Can they do it again, this time on the road against another imposing NFC East foe? Let’s go over the matchups first.

CLEVELAND OFFENSE: For the first time all year, Derek Anderson took tons of shots downfield. I don’t know why Romeo Crennel waited this long, but it worked. Of course it helped that Braylon Edwards didn’t drop a dozen balls.

That said, it wouldn’t surprise me if Anderson reverted to the guy who struggled the first five weeks of the season. The Redskins have one of the top secondaries the league has to offer, and they’re getting Shawn Springs back from injury. Springs played last week against the Rams, but was dinged-up and not 100 percent. He’ll be better in this contest.

It helped the Browns that they were able to establish Jamal Lewis early against the Giants. Statistically, the Redskins are 21st against the run, but the past three weeks, they’ve limited Steven Jackson, Brian Westbrook and Marion Barber to well less than four yards per carry – a very impressive feat. Lewis won’t find much running room, making things more difficult for Anderson.

WASHINGTON OFFENSE: Though the Redskins scored just 17 points last week, I wouldn’t say they struggled to move the chains. Turnovers killed them, namely a fumble returned for a touchdown as Washington was setting up for a score at the end of the second quarter. Now that the Browns have established themselves as a worthy foe, I expect the Redskins to be much more focused and careful with the football.

Jim Zorn will establish Clinton Portis early and often. Cleveland’s defense is 27th versus the run, so look for another monstrous performance from Portis, the No. 1 player in fantasy football right now.

Portis’ dominance on the ground will once again make things smoother for Jason Campbell, the only full-time quarterback who has yet to throw an interception this season. Left tackle Chris Samuels will play despite suffering an injury against the Rams, which is great news for Campbell, who figures to torch the Browns’ 22nd-ranked secondary.

RECAP: Tons of line value with the Redskins. This spread would have been 12 or 13 a week ago. Now we only have to lay seven with a team that beat both Dallas and Philadelphia on the road? Sign me up.

But how good are the Browns? They’re not as bad as they were in blowout losses to Dallas and Baltimore, but they’re certainly not as good as they were on Monday night. That contest was a must-win for them in a revenge situation. It was also the first Monday night game in Cleveland in five years, so the fans and players were all jacked up. Throw in the fact that the game didn’t mean all that much to the Giants, and you have a recipe for a 21-point Cleveland victory.

I seriously doubt the Browns can match the same intensity two weeks in a row. The Redskins are a much better team, and they should be able to take care of business, especially after losing as a massive favorite last Sunday.

The Psychology. Edge: Redskins.

The Browns just won a must-win, revenge game against the Giants. How can they match the same intensity two weeks in a row? The Redskins, meanwhile, were just embarrassed by the winless Rams. They’ll be ready.

The Vegas. Edge: Redskins.

The public just witnessed Cleveland’s beatdown of the Giants. No shock that the public likes them. Oddly enough, despite the action on Cleveland, this line has risen from -7 to -7.5.

Percentage of money on Cleveland: 59% (134,000 bets)

The Trends. Edge: Browns.

Monday Magic: Coaches coming off a 17+ point win on Monday Night Football are 32-15 ATS since 1999.

Opening Line: Redskins -7.

Opening Total: 42.5.

Weather: Sunny, 50 degrees. Light wind.

Week 7 NFL Pick: Redskins 24, Browns 13
Redskins -7.5 (1 Unit) — Incorrect; -$110
Under 42 (.5 Units) — Correct; +$50
Redskins 14, Browns 11

Seattle Seahawks (1-4) at Tampa Bay Buccaneers (4-2)
Line: Buccaneers by 10.5. Total: 38.
Walt’s Projected Line (Before Week 6): Buccaneers -7.

Walt’s Projected Line (After Week 6): Buccaneers -9.
Sunday, 8:15 ET – Buy Tickets

The Game. Edge: Buccaneers.

Injuries: Seahawks: OUT: QB Matt Hasselbeck*, WR Nate Burleson (IR), WR Ben Obomanu (IR), WR Seneca Wallace, WR Logan Payne (IR), G Rob Sims (IR). QUESTIONABLE: WR Deion Branch*, OT Sean Locklear. Buccaneers: OUT: FB Byron Storer (IR), CB Torrie Cox (IR), CB Sammy Davis (IR). QUESTIONABLE: WR Joey Galloway*.

How did the Redskins lose to the Rams? Ugh. I’m pissed off that my hot friend RepublicanSexKitten is out of the Survivor Pool; I won’t have an excuse to harass her every week (about her getting her pick in). There are only FIVE people remaining in the WalterFootball.com $350 Survivor Pool. I’ll continue to offer my advice for those who want it, and others who have entered in a new Survivor Contest.

If you need another excuse to hit up the forums, check out the Heroes Discussion Thread, which includes a very hot picture of Claire. Very nice!

I bring up the Survivor Pool here for a reason. I like the Buccaneers a lot. I’ll get to why after the matchups.

SEATTLE OFFENSE: So, it turns out that the national audience won’t be forced to watch Charlie Frye. There’s a chance – I’ll emphasize that, a CHANCE – Seneca Wallace plays. Is this what Seattle’s banking on? A chance that Wallace will play? Oh man…

Whether Wallace or Frye is under center, the Buccaneers will key in on stopping Julius Jones, which won’t be a problem, seeing as how they completely shut down DeAngelo Williams and Jonathan Stewart last week.

Wallace will have to do most of the work on offense, which could prove to be disastrous. Tampa Bay’s outstanding secondary should be able to force him into committing a number of turnovers.

TAMPA BAY OFFENSE: Earnest Graham only had five carries last week because he had to play fullback in the wake of several injuries to the position. Still, Tampa Bay’s offense was able to run the ball extremely well with Warrick Dunn.

Look for the Bucs to reward Graham for his hard work. I wouldn’t be surprised if Graham garners close to 25 rushes in this contest. If he gets that many carries, he could come close to 125 yards. Seattle is just 18th against the run.

With Jeff Garcia back at the helm, the Buccaneers are once again playing error-free football. Garcia doesn’t have any sort of arm strength, but that won’t matter in this contest because Seattle’s secondary is a joke. The Seahawks have problems at every position in the defensive backfield, and are consequently 28th against the pass.

RECAP: Excluding the playoffs, can you remember the last time the Buccaneers were on national TV? Drawing a blank? Yeah, me too.

This is Tampa Bay’s first opportunity to let the nation know just how good they are. This is a huge statement game for them.

Meanwhile, the Seahawks suck on the road. And this is also the second time in three weeks that they’re traveling to the Atlantic Coast. I know this isn’t an early game or anything, but all that jet lag is going to catch up to them. Not even John Madden is willing to go cross-country three times in three weeks!

The Psychology. Edge: Buccaneers.

Can anyone remember the last time the Buccaneers were on national TV? This is a great opportunity for them to showcase themselves. The New Sombraro will be jumping.

The Vegas. Edge: Seahawks.
This seems about right; about three-fifths of the public on the Buccaneers at a very high price.

Percentage of money on Tampa Bay: 64% (170,000 bets)

The Trends. Edge: Buccaneers.

Hometown Hero: Jon Gruden is 5-2 ATS at home following a home win.

Seahawks are 6-14 ATS on the road since 2006.

Opening Line: Buccaneers -10.5.

Opening Total: 39.

Weather: Partly cloudy, 67 degrees. Mild wind, 12 mph.

Week 7 NFL Pick: Buccaneers 31, Seahawks 10
Buccaneers -10.5 (4 Units) — Incorrect; -$440
Over 38 (.5 Units) — Incorrect; -$55
Survivor Pick (4-2)
Buccaneers 20, Backdoor F.U. Seahawks 10

Denver Broncos (4-2) at New England Patriots (3-2)
Line: Patriots by 3. Total: 48.5.
Walt’s Projected Line (Before Week 6): Pick.

Walt’s Projected Line (After Week 6): Pick.

Monday, 8:30 ET – Buy Tickets

The Game. Edge: Broncos.

Injuries: Broncos: OUT: RB Ryan Torain, C Tom Nalen (IR). Patriots: OUT: QB Tom Brady (IR), OT Ryan O’Callaghan (IR), OT Oliver Ross, OT Anthony Clement (IR), G Stephen Neal, S Tank Williams (IR).

Before I get to the final game on the slate, here’s the Week 7 NFL Look-Alike Thread, dedicated to Kurt Warner for coming through for my October NFL Pick of the Month.

I’ve been ranking the Patriots as one of the most overrated teams in the NFL in the home page of my NFL Picks section, and it finally looks like the public is starting to catch on to how much they suck. That said, I still don’t think people how realize how bad this team is.

NEW ENGLAND OFFENSE: Matt Cassel can’t throw the ball more than 20 yards. I know he had that long bomb to Randy Moss in the 49ers game, but that was luck; Cassel took another shot later, and severely underthrew Moss. His next-longest pass in that contest was 20 yards. Last Sunday night, Cassel’s longest completion was just 28 yards.

Denver’s defense is terrible, but New England doesn’t pose much of a threat. What do the Broncos have to worry about? The Patriots’ non-existent running game? Their banged-up offensive line? Cassel’s incredibly weak arm? Randy Moss’ lack of effort? An ineffective Ben Watson?

DENVER OFFENSE: Jay Cutler struggled last week because he didn’t have Eddie Royal, Tony Scheffler and Brandon Stokley (he left early in the game with an injury). Cutler consequently had to stare down Brandon Marshall, who was double-teamed all afternoon.

The Broncos will have Royal back, and it looks like Scheffler will play as well. Stokley is more of a long shot, but regardless, Denver’s offense will be in much better shape with at least two of those guys back.

Of course, it probably doesn’t matter because New England’s secondary is a joke. Deltha O’Neal? Are you kidding me? Mike Shanahan used to coach O’Neal, so he knows how bad he is. Denver’s offense won’t be stopped.

RECAP: Speaking of Shanahan, he owns Bill Belichick. In their past six meetings, Shanahan is 5-1 against Mr. Hoodie. The one loss was a last-second defeat.

All six of those matchups were with Tom Brady at the helm. For the first time, Shanahan will have the advantage at the quarterback position. That has to tell you that this game is going to be a blowout.

Monday Afternoon Update: If you’re going to e-mail me and ask me if I still like the Broncos, the answer is yes.

What a rotten day yesterday. The Texans dominated the Lions and led by 18 in the fourth quarter, but lost the cover. Goodbye one unit.

The Redskins dominated the Browns and led 14-3, but Clinton Portis fumbled on Washington’s 20, giving the Browns an easy touchdown. Goodbye one unit.

And worst of all, the Buccaneers dominated the Seahawks the entire game and led 20-3. A missed field goal, poor play-calling on third down, a great return by Seattle and a cheap touchdown with two minutes left, and Tampa Bay loses the cover. Goodbye FOUR units.

That’s six units down the drain. On the bright side, even with that preposterous Tampa loss, I’m still 3-2 with multi-unit plays this week. I just whiffed on all but one of my one-unit selections, which I obviously didn’t have a strong opinion on.

The Psychology. Edge: None.
Big game for both teams. No edge.

The Vegas. Edge: Patriots.

Odd that the Patriots are favored, but this line actually opened at -3.5 and has fallen, matching public action.

Percentage of money on Denver: 70% (229,000 bets)

The Trends. Edge: None.

Losing Coach: Mike Shanahan is 1-5 ATS as a dog after losing as a favorite.

Mike Shanahan is 5-1 vs. Bill Belichick since 2001.

Patriots are 38-29 ATS at home under Bill Belichick.

Opening Line: Patriots -3.5.

Opening Total: 46.

Weather: Partly cloudy, 48 degrees. Light wind.

Week 7 NFL Pick: Broncos 34, Patriots 10
Broncos +3 (3 Units) — Incorrect; -$330
Under 48.5 (.5 Units) — Correct; +$50
Patriots 41, Broncos 7

Week 7 NFL Picks – Early Games
Chargers at Bills, 49ers at Giants, Cowboys at Rams, Titans at Chiefs, Steelers at Bengals, Vikings at Bears, Saints at Panthers, Ravens at Dolphins

Printable version of Week 7 NFL Picks (MS Word)

Prop/Teaser/Parlay Picks
A list of some of my favorite team/player prop picks this week
(Offense & defensive ROY picks to be counted whenver winners are announced.) Picks carried over on a week-to-week basis will be in black.

Live Dog: Ravens +125 (2 Units) — Correct; +$250

Live Dog: Vikings +155 (2 Units) — Incorrect; -$200

Live Dog: Saints +130 (2 Units) — Incorrect; -$200

Live Dog: Broncos +140 (3 Units) — Incorrect; -$300

Pyschology Parlay: Bills -1, Cowboys -7, Chiefs +9, Bengals +9.5, Ravens +3, Buccaneers -10.5 (.5 Units to win 12.1) — Incorrect; -$50

Odds to Win Super Bowl XLIII: Dallas +475 (1 Unit)

Odds to Win Super Bowl XLIII: Indianapolis +1050 (1 Unit)

NY Giants 9 Wins: Over +115 (3 Units)

Pittsburgh 9 Wins: Over +115 (3 Units)

Chicago 8 Wins: Under -170 (3 Units)

Kansas City 6 Wins: Under -110 (4 Units)

San Diego 10.5 Wins: Under +150 (3 Units)

San Francisco 6.5 Wins: Under -130 (3 Units)

St. Louis 6.5 Wins: Under -115 (3 Units)

Odds to win the 2008-2009 NFL Offensive Rookie of the Year Award: DeSean Jackson 15/1 (1 Unit)

Defensive Rookie of the Year: Keith Rivers 8/1 (1 Unit)

Defensive Rookie of the Year: Curtis Lofton 14/1 (1 Unit)

How many Rushing Yards will Larry Johnson have in the 2008 Season? Under 1,275 -145 (3 Units)

How many Receiving Yards will Calvin Johnson have in the 2008 Season? Over 1,040 -105 (5 Units)

How many Receiving Touchdowns will Calvin Johnson have in the 2008 Season? Over 7 -115 (5 Units)

2009 NFL Mock Draft

2010 NFL Mock Draft

2009 NFL Mock Draft Database

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Last Week's NFL Picks Against The Spread (Week 18, 2023): 10-6 (-$415)
Last Week's 2-3 Unit NFL Picks (Week 18, 2023): 3-1 (+$460)
Last Week's 4-5 Unit NFL Picks (Week 18, 2023): 1-1 (-$40)
Last Week Over-Under (Week 18, 2023): 7-9 ($0)
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2023 NFL Picks of the Month: 1-4, 20.0% (-$2,480)

2023 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 137-135-7, 50.4% (-$7,735)
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1999 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 27-41-3 (39.7%)
2000 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 128-123-8 (51.0%)
2001 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 127-122-7 (51.0%)
2002 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 123-136-7 (47.5%)
2003 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 146-126-8 (53.7%)
2004 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 157-123-8 (56.1%)
2005 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 156-126-11 (55.3%)
2006 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 151-135-9 (52.8%)
2007 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 162-135-10, 54.5% (+$3,585)
2008 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 148-140-7, 51.4% (+$6,105)
2009 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 151-124-9, 54.9% (+$4,235)
2010 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 144-131-8, 52.4% (+$5,880)
2011 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 137-133-12, 50.7% (-$1,335)
2012 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 130-145-8, 47.3% (-$7,445)
2013 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 144-131-8, 52.4% (+$7,825)
2014 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 143-133-7, 51.8% (-$1,885)
2015 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 134-138-12, 49.3% (-$3,215)
2016 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 148-127-10, 53.8% (+$780)
2017 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 137-140-8, 49.5% (-$4,300)
2018 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 140-134-14, 51.3% (+$845)
2019 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 149-128-9, 53.6% (+$1,200)
2020 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 138-124-7, 52.7% (+$9,350)
2021 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 153-141-2, 51.9% (+$210)
2022 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 154-134-8, 53.5% (+$9,860)

2002 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 41-49-2 (45.6%)
2003 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 52-51-2 (50.5%)
2004 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 65-44-3 (59.6%)
2005 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 77-61-1 (55.8%)
2006 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 65-61-4 (51.6%)
2007 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 83-59-5, 58.5% (+$4,110)
2008 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 44-57-3, 43.6% (-$3,510)
2009 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 49-35-3, 58.3% (+$2,260)
2010 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 51-38-4, 57.3% (+$3,180)
2011 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 44-51-3, 46.3% (-$2,715)
2012 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 45-50-2, 47.4% (-$2,130)
2013 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 38-42, 47.5% (-$2,890)
2015 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 47-44-1, 51.6% (-$820)
2016 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 42-35-3, 54.5% (+$475)
2017 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 32-40-3, 43.8% (-$2,395)
2018 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 52-41-2, 55.9% (+$2,670)
2019 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 44-36-2, 55.0% (+$655)
2020 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 47-43-3, 52.2% (-$1,965)
2021 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 50-50, 50.0% (-$1,570)
2022 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 56-44-2, 56.0% (+$1,860)

2002 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 11-12 (47.8%)
2003 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 16-13-1 (55.2%)
2004 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 18-11 (62.1%)
2005 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 25-22-1 (53.2%)
2006 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 21-29-1 (42.0%)
2007 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 35-30-2, 53.8% (+$420)
2008 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 39-26-2, 60.0% (+$4,055)
2009 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 29-26, 52.7% (+$330)
2010 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 32-22, 59.3% (+$4,790)
2011 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 14-14, 50.0% (-$1,260)
2012 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 14-21, 40.0% (-$3,650)
2013 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 17-9-3, 65.4% (+$2,970)
2015 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 17-16-2, 51.5% (-$1,120)
2016 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 21-22-5, 48.8% (-$1,465)
2017 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 20-22-1, 47.6% (-$1,595)
2018 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 27-32-1, 45.8% (-$4,735)
2019 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 37-27-2, 57.8% (+$2,185)
2020 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 37-22-1, 62.7% (+$5,515)
2021 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 32-32-1, 50.0% (-$725)
2022 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 41-30-1, 57.8% (+$3,725)

2001 Season Over-Under: 3-2 (60.0%)
2002 Season Over-Under: 121-91-3 (57.1%)
2003 Season Over-Under: 126-132-2 (48.8%)
2004 Season Over-Under: 139-124-4 (52.9%)
2005 Season Over-Under: 117-145-4 (44.7%)
2006 Season Over-Under: 129-132-5 (49.4%)
2007 Season Over-Under: 136-145-3, 48.4% (-$1,900)
2008 Season Over-Under: 137-125-6, 52.3% (+$860)
2009 Season Over-Under: 128-135-4, 48.7% (-$3,195)
2010 Season Over-Under: 128-135-5, 48.7% (-$5)
2011 Season Over-Under: 131-131-5, 50.0% (+$135)
2012 Season Over-Under: 125-121-5, 50.8% (+$30)
2013 Season Over-Under: 132-130-5, 50.4% (-$340)
2015 Season Over-Under: 143-119-5, 54.6% ($0)
2016 Season Over-Under: 123-141-1, 46.6% (+$95)
2017 Season Over-Under: 136-139-2, 49.5% (+$640)
2018 Season Over-Under: 118-128-3, 48.0% (-$225)
2019 Season Over-Under: 126-133-4, 48.6% (-$50)
2020 Season Over-Under: 141-122-6, 53.6% ($0)
2021 Season Over-Under: 132-151-3, 46.6% ($0)
2022 Season Over-Under: 133-149-2, 47.2% (-$225)

2007 Season Prop/ML/Teaser/Parlay Picks: +$1,035
2008 Season Prop/ML/Teaser/Parlay Picks: +$1,775
2009 Season Prop/ML/Teaser/Parlay Picks: +$865
2010 Season Prop/ML/Teaser/Parlay Picks: -$200
2011 Season Prop/ML/Teaser/Parlay Picks: +$590
2012 Season Prop/ML/Teaser/Parlay Picks: -$1,685
2013 Season Prop/ML/Teaser/Parlay Picks: +$2,245
2015 Season Prop/ML/Teaser/Parlay Picks: -$855
2016 Season Prop/ML/Teaser/Parlay Picks: -$275
2017 Season Prop/ML/Teaser/Parlay Picks: -$510
2018 Season Prop/ML/Teaser/Parlay Picks: +$1,495
2019 Season Prop/ML/Teaser/Parlay Picks: -$1,715
2020 Season Prop/ML/Teaser/Parlay Picks: +$4,975
2021 Season Prop/ML/Teaser/Parlay Picks: +$3,455
2022 Season Prop/ML/Teaser/Parlay Picks: +$5,720

2006 NFL Picks of the Month: 3-3 (50%)
2007 NFL Picks of the Month: 3-3, 50.0% (-$400)
2008 NFL Picks of the Month: 6-1, 85.7% (+$3,720)
2009 NFL Picks of the Month: 3-2, 60.0% (+$640)
2010 NFL Picks of the Month: 2-4, 33.3% (-$1,810)
2011 NFL Picks of the Month: 5-2, 71.4% (+$1,870)
2012 NFL Picks of the Month: 3-2, 60.0% (+$560)
2013 NFL Picks of the Month: 6-0, 100% (+$3,900)
2014 NFL Picks of the Month: 2-4, 33.3% (-$1,350)
2015 NFL Picks of the Month: 3-3, 50.0% (-$100)
2016 NFL Picks of the Month: 5-1, 83.3% (+$2,780)
2017 NFL Picks of the Month: 4-2, 66.7% (+$1,040)
2018 NFL Picks of the Month: 4-3, 57.1% (-$640)
2019 NFL Picks of the Month: 3-3-1, 50.0% (-$625)
2020 NFL Picks of the Month: 3-2, 60.0% (+$665)
2021 NFL Picks of the Month: 2-3, 40.0% (-$920)
2022 NFL Picks of the Month: 3-4, 42.9% (-$1,615)

Career NFL Picks Against The Spread: 3,420-3,152-195, 52.1% (+$21,170)
Career 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 1,106-983-56 (52.9%)
Career 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 549-485-25 (53.1%)
Career Over-Under: 2,853-2,829-74 (50.3%)
Career Second-Half NFL Picks: 23-16-1 (59.0%)
Career NFL Picks of the Month: 46-34-1 (57.5t%)

My Team-by-Team ATS Record
This section shows how well I do when picking each team this year. The purpose is to see how well I read each team. Pushes are not displayed. Winning/losing streak in parentheses.

Cowboys: 8-9	Bears: 11-4	Bucs: 6-11	49ers: 10-7
Eagles: 7-7	Lions: 9-8	Falcons: 8-9	Cardinals: 8-9
Giants: 7-9	Packers: 5-12	Panthers: 8-9	Rams: 8-9
Redskins: 14-3	Vikings: 6-9	Saints: 10-7	Seahawks: 7-9

Bills: 9-7	Bengals: 12-5	Colts: 7-10	Broncos: 9-6
Dolphins: 6-11	Browns: 11-5	Jaguars: 13-4	Chargers: 8-9
Jets: 8-9	Ravens: 11-6	Texans: 5-12	Chiefs: 5-10
Patriots: 7-9	Steelers: 11-6	Titans: 9-8	Raiders: 6-9

Divisional: 50-35 (2011-22: 558-526)	2x Game Edge: 36-24 (2011-22: 363-361)	2x Motivation Edge: 32-36 (2011-22: 478-405)	2x Spread Edge: 41-40 (2011-22: 197-168)
2x Vegas Edge: 41-38 (2011-22: 407-406)	2x Trend Edge: 15-13 (2011-22: 306-279)	Double Edge: 17-13 (2011-22: 190-172)	Triple Edge: 1-1 (2011-22: 32-36)

2023 NFL Draft Re-Grades

2024 NFL Draft Second-Day Values: Offense

NBA Picks Against the Spread

2024 NFL Draft Goals

2024 NFL Draft Potential Busts

NFL Free Agent Signing Grades – Latest Signing Grades for 2024 NFL Free Agency

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