NFL Picks Against the Spread: Preseason Week 4, 2017



NFL Picks (Preseason 2017): 6-8-1 (-$435)
NFL Picks (Week 1, 2017): 0-0 ($0)

NFL Picks (2017): 6-8-1 (-$435)
NFL Picks (2016): 148-127-10 (+$1,055)
NFL Picks (2015): 133-138-10 (-$2,360)
NFL Picks (2014): 143-132-7 (-$1,115)
NFL Picks (2013): 144-131-8 (+$5,580)
NFL Picks (2012): 130-145-8 (-$5,760)
NFL Picks (2011): 137-133-12 (-$1,925)
NFL Picks (2010): 144-131-8 (+$6,080)
NFL Picks (2009): 151-124-9 (+$3,370)
NFL Picks (2008): 136-125-6 (+$4,330)
If you don't quite understand the line, total or anything else, go to my Sports Betting FAQ.




Los Angeles Rams (2-1) at Green Bay Packers (2-1)
Line: Packers by 3.5.

Thursday, 7:00 ET

The Game. Edge: None.
Outcomes of preseason games rarely have anything to do with the talent on the respective teams, since the majority of the games are played by second-, third- and fourth-stringers.

Some coaches care about winning preseason games, while others do not. Thus, betting on coaches with great preseason records is an easy way to make money. Here are recent NFL Betting Trends: Preseason Records for every coach in the NFL.

The one caveat, which I've added to my preseason picking process, is to factor in backup quarterbacks. Some reserve signal-callers are much better than others in the preseason, with mobile quarterbacks having a big advantage because they seldom have to diagnose defenses, and their mobility is a big strength versus opposing scrubs. It's why Pat White is one of the greatest preseason quarterbacks of all time.

***

I find it difficult to understand why the Packers are favored by more than a field goal. It's not like Aaron Rodgers is going to play, or anything. Mike McCarthy has a dismal Week 4 record, and I like the Rams' Sean Mannion. He'll probably be the best quarterback on the field in this game.


The Psychology. Edge: None.
No psychological edge found.


The Vegas. Edge: .
Vegas trends will be posted in the regular season.
  • Percentage of money on Team: X% (Y bets)


    The Trends. Edge: Rams.
  • Sean McVay is 2-1 in preseason games.
  • Sean McVay is 0-0 in Preseason Week 4 games.
  • Mike McCarthy is 25-21 in preseason games.
  • Mike McCarthy is 4-7 in Preseason Week 4 games.


    Preseason Week 4 NFL Pick: Rams 16, Packers 13
    Rams +3.5 (2 Units)







    Detroit Lions (2-1) at Buffalo Bills (0-3)
    Line: Lions by 3.5.

    Thursday, 7:00 ET

    The Game. Edge: None.
    Outcomes of preseason games rarely have anything to do with the talent on the respective teams, since the majority of the games are played by second-, third- and fourth-stringers.

    Some coaches care about winning preseason games, while others do not. Thus, betting on coaches with great preseason records is an easy way to make money. Here are recent NFL Betting Trends: Preseason Records for every coach in the NFL.

    The one caveat, which I've added to my preseason picking process, is to factor in backup quarterbacks. Some reserve signal-callers are much better than others in the preseason, with mobile quarterbacks having a big advantage because they seldom have to diagnose defenses, and their mobility is a big strength versus opposing scrubs. It's why Pat White is one of the greatest preseason quarterbacks of all time.

    ***

    There's no line on this game for some reason. I'll revisit this later in the week, but I will almost certainly be betting the Lions. Jim Caldwell has a strong exhibition record with the Lions, and I expect him to win one more against the Bills, who are in disarray. I like Jake Ruddock, and he might be the best quarterback on the field.

    Update: This line is much higher than I thought it would be. The Lions are -3.5, which doesn't seem great. I'll put a half unit on Detroit, but that's it. By the way, true story: I had a dream the Lions won this game 3-0. They kicked a field goal in the first quarter, and then that was it.


    The Psychology. Edge: None.
    No psychological edge found.


    The Vegas. Edge: .
    Vegas trends will be posted in the regular season.
  • Percentage of money on Team: X% (Y bets)


    The Trends. Edge: Lions.
  • Jim Caldwell is 12-15 in preseason games (10-4 with Lions).
  • Jim Caldwell is 4-2 in Preseason Week 4 games.
  • Sean McDermott is 0-3 in preseason games.
  • Sean McDermott is 0-0 in Preseason Week 4 games.


    Preseason Week 4 NFL Pick: Lions 20, Bills 16
    Lions -3.5 (0.5 Units)








    Washington Redskins (1-2) at Tampa Bay Buccaneers (1-2)
    Line: Buccaneers by 2.5.

    Thursday, 7:30 ET

    The Game. Edge: None.
    Outcomes of preseason games rarely have anything to do with the talent on the respective teams, since the majority of the games are played by second-, third- and fourth-stringers.

    Some coaches care about winning preseason games, while others do not. Thus, betting on coaches with great preseason records is an easy way to make money. Here are recent NFL Betting Trends: Preseason Records for every coach in the NFL.

    The one caveat, which I've added to my preseason picking process, is to factor in backup quarterbacks. Some reserve signal-callers are much better than others in the preseason, with mobile quarterbacks having a big advantage because they seldom have to diagnose defenses, and their mobility is a big strength versus opposing scrubs. It's why Pat White is one of the greatest preseason quarterbacks of all time.

    ***

    I wish we were getting an entire field goal here, but I like the Redskins. Jay Gruden tends to take the preseason more seriously than Dirk Koetter.


    The Psychology. Edge: None.
    No psychological edge found.


    The Vegas. Edge: .
    Vegas trends will be posted in the regular season.
  • Percentage of money on Team: X% (Y bets)


    The Trends. Edge: Redskins.
  • Jay Gruden is 10-5 in preseason games.
  • Jay Gruden is 2-1 in Preseason Week 4 games.
  • Dirk Koetter is 3-4 in preseason games.
  • Dirk Koetter is 0-1 in Preseason Week 4 games.


    Preseason Week 4 NFL Pick: Buccaneers 17, Redskins 16
    Redskins +2.5 (1 Unit)







    Baltimore Ravens (3-0) at New Orleans Saints (2-1)
    Line: Saints by 2.5.

    Thursday, 8:00 ET

    The Game. Edge: None.
    Outcomes of preseason games rarely have anything to do with the talent on the respective teams, since the majority of the games are played by second-, third- and fourth-stringers.

    Some coaches care about winning preseason games, while others do not. Thus, betting on coaches with great preseason records is an easy way to make money. Here are recent NFL Betting Trends: Preseason Records for every coach in the NFL.

    The one caveat, which I've added to my preseason picking process, is to factor in backup quarterbacks. Some reserve signal-callers are much better than others in the preseason, with mobile quarterbacks having a big advantage because they seldom have to diagnose defenses, and their mobility is a big strength versus opposing scrubs. It's why Pat White is one of the greatest preseason quarterbacks of all time.

    ***

    I trust John Harbaugh to win here, as he's a prolific 27-12 in exhibition contests. On the other side, Sean Payton is an anemic 1-10 in Week 4 of the preseason! I'd wager three units on this if we were getting a full field goal, but the line is +3 -125 in most places. I'm going to take the +2.5 +100 available at 5Dimes instead.


    The Psychology. Edge: None.
    No psychological edge found.


    The Vegas. Edge: .
    Vegas trends will be posted in the regular season.
  • Percentage of money on Team: X% (Y bets)


    The Trends. Edge: Ravens.
  • John Harbaugh is 27-12 in preseason games (12-3 since 2014).
  • John Harbaugh is 4-5 in Preseason Week 4 games.
  • Sean Payton is 23-26 in preseason games.
  • Sean Payton is 1-10 in Preseason Week 4 games.


    Preseason Week 4 NFL Pick: Ravens 24, Saints 20
    Ravens +2.5 +100 (2 Units)







    Seattle Seahawks (3-0) at Oakland Raiders (0-3)
    Line: Seahawks by 1.

    Thursday, 10:00 ET

    The Game. Edge: None.
    Outcomes of preseason games rarely have anything to do with the talent on the respective teams, since the majority of the games are played by second-, third- and fourth-stringers.

    Some coaches care about winning preseason games, while others do not. Thus, betting on coaches with great preseason records is an easy way to make money.

    Here are recent NFL Betting Trends: Preseason Records for every coach in the NFL.

    ***

    The Seahawks are my top pick this week. They tend to do great in the preseason. Pete Carroll is a very competitive guy, so that would explain why he wants to win all of these meaningless games. The Raiders, meanwhile, are 2-9 in exhibition contests with Jack Del Rio!


    The Psychology. Edge: None.
    No psychological edge found.


    The Vegas. Edge: .
    Vegas trends will be posted in the regular season.
  • Percentage of money on Team: X% (Y bets)


    The Trends. Edge: Seahawks.
  • Pete Carroll is 21-10 in preseason games.
  • Pete Carroll is 5-2 in Preseason Week 4 games.
  • Jack Del Rio is 23-24 in preseason games (2-9 with Raiders).
  • Jack Del Rio is 7-4 in Preseason Week 4 games.


    Preseason Week 4 NFL Pick: Seahawks 27, Raiders 20
    Seahawks -1 (3 Units)





    Comment...



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    Last Week's NFL Picks Against The Spread (Week 11, 2017): 3-10-1 (-$1,595)
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    1999 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 27-41-3 (39.7%)
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    My Team-by-Team ATS Record
    This section shows how well I do when picking each team this year. The purpose is to see how well I read each team. Pushes are not displayed. Winning/losing streak in parentheses.

    Cowboys: 6-4 (2014-16: 23-27)
    Bears: 5-5 (2014-16: 17-27)
    Bucs: 3-6 (2014-16: 26-22)
    49ers: 5-5 (2014-16: 32-15)
    Eagles: 8-2 (2014-16: 23-25)
    Lions: 4-6 (2014-16: 26-22)
    Falcons: 4-6 (2014-16: 29-22)
    Cardinals: 5-4 (2014-16: 24-27)
    Giants: 7-3 (2014-16: 22-24)
    Packers: 3-7 (2014-16: 31-21)
    Panthers: 5-5 (2014-16: 26-26)
    Rams: 7-3 (2014-16: 24-22)
    Redskins: 5-5 (2014-16: 26-23)
    Vikings: 4-6 (2014-16: 28-21)
    Saints: 4-6 (2014-16: 25-21)
    Seahawks: 3-6 (2014-16: 27-26)
    Bills: 3-7 (2014-16: 24-21)
    Bengals: 3-6 (2014-16: 16-31)
    Colts: 5-5 (2014-16: 21-26)
    Broncos: 4-5 (2014-16: 24-23)
    Dolphins: 0-8 (2014-16: 28-19)
    Browns: 2-8 (2014-16: 21-22)
    Jaguars: 6-4 (2014-16: 18-28)
    Chargers: 4-5 (2014-16: 25-23)
    Jets: 5-4 (2014-16: 24-21)
    Ravens: 4-6 (2014-16: 23-23)
    Texans: 6-4 (2014-16: 23-26)
    Chiefs: 3-7 (2014-16: 29-26)
    Patriots: 4-6 (2014-16: 31-23)
    Steelers: 5-5 (2014-16: 28-22)
    Titans: 2-8 (2014-16: 23-20)
    Raiders: 1-8 (2014-16: 23-26)
    Divisional: 16-21 (2011-16: 266-272)
    2x Game Edge: 9-13 (2011-16: 103-107)
    2x Psych Edge: 27-25 (2011-16: 194-165)
    2x Vegas Edge: 14-11 (2011-16: 241-255)
    2x Trend Edge: 18-20 (2011-15: 181-159)
    Double Edge: 13-10 (2011-15: 77-75)
    Triple Edge: 1-2 (2011-15: 6-3)
    Quad Edge: 0-0 (2011-15: 0-0)

    2003 Preseason: 3 | 4 | 5
    2003 Season: 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 | 18 | 20 | XXXVIII
    2004 Preseason: 1 | 2 | 3 | 4
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    2006 Preseason: 1 | 2 | 3 | 4
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    2007 Preseason: 1 | 2 | 3 | 4
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    2009 Season: 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 | 18 | 19 | 20 | XLIV |
    2010 Preseason: 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 |
    2010 Season: 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 | 18 | 19 | 20 | XLV |
    2011 Preseason: 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 |
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