NFL Picks Against the Spread: Preseason Week 4, 2015




NFL Picks (2015): 7-6-1 (-$430)
NFL Picks (2014): 143-133-7 (-$1,885)
NFL Picks (2013): 144-131-8 (+$5,580)
NFL Picks (2012): 130-145-8 (-$5,760)
NFL Picks (2011): 137-133-12 (-$1,925)
NFL Picks (2010): 144-131-8 (+$6,080)
NFL Picks (2009): 151-124-9 (+$3,370)
NFL Picks (2008): 136-125-6 (+$4,330)
If you don't quite understand the line, total or anything else, go to my Sports Betting FAQ.




Carolina Panthers (2-1) at Pittsburgh Steelers (1-3)
Line: Steelers by 1.

Thursday, 7:30 ET

The Game. Edge: None.
Outcomes of preseason games rarely have anything to do with the talent on the respective teams, since the majority of the games are played by second-, third- and fourth-stringers.

Some coaches care about winning preseason games, while others do not. Thus, betting on coaches with great preseason records is an easy way to make money.

Here are recent NFL Betting Trends: Preseason Records for every coach in the NFL.

***

Mike Tomlin's once-pristine preseason record has gone down the drain because of Landry Jones. I would've bet against the Steelers this week, but things have changed. They signed QBDK, who is expected to play a big chunk of this game. QBDK can't play well against defenses that scheme against him, but I doubt Ron Rivera will be doing that in the preseason.


The Psychology. Edge: None.
No psychological edge found.


The Vegas. Edge: .
Vegas trends will be posted in the regular season.
  • Percentage of money on Team: X% (Y bets)


    The Trends. Edge: Steelers.
  • Ron Rivera is 10-9 in preseason games.
  • Ron Rivera is 2-2 in Preseason Week 4 games.
  • Mike TOmlin is 21-16 in preseason games.
  • Mike Tomlin is 6-2 in Preseason Week 4 games.


    Preseason Week 4 NFL Pick: Steelers 17, Panthers 13
    Steelers -1 (1 Unit) -- Incorrect; -$110








    Jacksonville Jaguars (1-2) at Washington Redskins (3-0)
    Line: Redskins by 4.5.

    Thursday, 7:30 ET

    The Game. Edge: None.
    Outcomes of preseason games rarely have anything to do with the talent on the respective teams, since the majority of the games are played by second-, third- and fourth-stringers.

    Some coaches care about winning preseason games, while others do not. Thus, betting on coaches with great preseason records is an easy way to make money.

    Here are recent NFL Betting Trends: Preseason Records for every coach in the NFL.

    ***

    I don't want to jinx myself, but this one almost seems too easy. Gus Bradley doesn't care at all about the preseason, as evidenced by his terrible record. Jay Gruden, meanwhile, is a near-perfect 6-1.


    The Psychology. Edge: None.
    No psychological edge found.


    The Vegas. Edge: .
    Vegas trends will be posted in the regular season.
  • Percentage of money on Team: X% (Y bets)


    The Trends. Edge: Redskins.
  • Gus Bradley is 3-8 in preseason games.
  • Gus Bradley is 1-1 in Preseason Week 4 games.
  • Jay Gruden is 6-1 in preseason games.
  • Jay Gruden is 1-0 in Preseason Week 4 games.


    Preseason Week 4 NFL Pick: Redskins 27, Jaguars 10
    Redskins -4.5 (3 Units) -- Incorrect; -$330







    Minnesota Vikings (4-0) at Tennessee Titans (1-2)
    Line: Titans by 2.

    Thursday, 8:00 ET

    The Game. Edge: None.
    Outcomes of preseason games rarely have anything to do with the talent on the respective teams, since the majority of the games are played by second-, third- and fourth-stringers.

    Some coaches care about winning preseason games, while others do not. Thus, betting on coaches with great preseason records is an easy way to make money.

    Here are recent NFL Betting Trends: Preseason Records for every coach in the NFL.

    ***

    And I thought the last one was easy. How do the Vikings not win this? Mike Zimmer is a perfect 8-0 in the preseason, and he's battling a coach who doesn't take the exhibition seriously.


    The Psychology. Edge: None.
    No psychological edge found.


    The Vegas. Edge: .
    Vegas trends will be posted in the regular season.
  • Percentage of money on Team: X% (Y bets)


    The Trends. Edge: Vikings.
  • Mike Zimmer is 8-0 in preseason games.
  • Mike Zimmer is 1-0 in Preseason Week 4 games.
  • Ken Whisenhunt is 11-21 in preseason games.
  • Ken Whisenhunt is 2-5 in Preseason Week 4 games.


    Preseason Week 4 NFL Pick: Vikings 26, Titans 17
    Vikings +2 (3 Units) -- Incorrect; -$330







    Oakland Raiders (1-2) at Seattle Seahawks (1-2)
    Line: Seahawks by 3.5.

    Thursday, 10:00 ET

    The Game. Edge: None.
    Outcomes of preseason games rarely have anything to do with the talent on the respective teams, since the majority of the games are played by second-, third- and fourth-stringers.

    Some coaches care about winning preseason games, while others do not. Thus, betting on coaches with great preseason records is an easy way to make money.

    Here are recent NFL Betting Trends: Preseason Records for every coach in the NFL.

    ***

    I've been betting on Pete Carroll in the preseason for a while now, but I'm making an exception here. Two reasons: First, Jack Del Rio is 7-2 in Week 4, so he'll take this seriously. Second, with Tarvaris Jackson out, R.J. Archer will be on the field most of the evening. Archer is terrible, so I can't see him covering 3.5 points.


    The Psychology. Edge: None.
    No psychological edge found.


    The Vegas. Edge: .
    Vegas trends will be posted in the regular season.
  • Percentage of money on Team: X% (Y bets)


    The Trends. Edge: None.
  • Jack Del Rio is 22-17 in preseason games.
  • Jack Del Rio is 7-2 in Preseason Week 4 games.
  • Pete Carroll is 14-9 in preseason games.
  • Pete Carroll is 3-2 in Preseason Week 4 games.


    Preseason Week 4 NFL Pick: Raiders 17, Seahawks 16
    Raiders +3.5 (2 Units) -- Incorrect; -$220





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    My Team-by-Team ATS Record
    This section shows how well I do when picking each team this year. The purpose is to see how well I read each team. Pushes are not displayed. Winning/losing streak in parentheses.

    Cowboys: 5-4 (2014-16: 23-27)
    Bears: 5-4 (2014-16: 17-27)
    Bucs: 3-5 (2014-16: 26-22)
    49ers: 5-5 (2014-16: 32-15)
    Eagles: 7-2 (2014-16: 23-25)
    Lions: 4-5 (2014-16: 26-22)
    Falcons: 4-5 (2014-16: 29-22)
    Cardinals: 4-4 (2014-16: 24-27)
    Giants: 7-2 (2014-16: 22-24)
    Packers: 3-6 (2014-16: 31-21)
    Panthers: 5-5 (2014-16: 26-26)
    Rams: 7-2 (2014-16: 24-22)
    Redskins: 4-5 (2014-16: 26-23)
    Vikings: 4-5 (2014-16: 28-21)
    Saints: 3-6 (2014-16: 25-21)
    Seahawks: 3-5 (2014-16: 27-26)
    Bills: 3-6 (2014-16: 24-21)
    Bengals: 3-5 (2014-16: 16-31)
    Colts: 5-5 (2014-16: 21-26)
    Broncos: 4-4 (2014-16: 24-23)
    Dolphins: 0-7 (2014-16: 28-19)
    Browns: 2-7 (2014-16: 21-22)
    Jaguars: 6-3 (2014-16: 18-28)
    Chargers: 4-4 (2014-16: 25-23)
    Jets: 5-4 (2014-16: 24-21)
    Ravens: 4-5 (2014-16: 23-23)
    Texans: 5-4 (2014-16: 23-26)
    Chiefs: 3-6 (2014-16: 29-26)
    Patriots: 4-5 (2014-16: 31-23)
    Steelers: 5-4 (2014-16: 28-22)
    Titans: 2-7 (2014-16: 23-20)
    Raiders: 1-7 (2014-16: 23-26)
    Divisional: 15-20 (2011-16: 266-272)
    2x Game Edge: 9-12 (2011-16: 103-107)
    2x Psych Edge: 26-21 (2011-16: 194-165)
    2x Vegas Edge: 14-10 (2011-16: 241-255)
    2x Trend Edge: 15-17 (2011-15: 181-159)
    Double Edge: 13-9 (2011-15: 77-75)
    Triple Edge: 1-1 (2011-15: 6-3)
    Quad Edge: 0-0 (2011-15: 0-0)

    2003 Preseason: 3 | 4 | 5
    2003 Season: 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 | 18 | 20 | XXXVIII
    2004 Preseason: 1 | 2 | 3 | 4
    2004 Season: 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 | 18 | 19 | 20 | XXXIX
    2005 Preseason: 1 | 2 | 3 | 4
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    2009 Season: 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 | 18 | 19 | 20 | XLIV |
    2010 Preseason: 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 |
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